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- [00:00]
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- [00:54]
Tim Miller
Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. A few notes. Yesterday's ad free pod got cut off at the end. So if you missed one of my favorite wines for panic ditties about being around people and how that helps with your sadness, you can catch up with the playlist in the show notes every Friday. The Bulwark Podcast Outro Song playlist, It's right here. We put it in the show notes for you for people that ask. Also, this is a good chance to inform newbies that if you want to go ad free, you might not have even known you could do that. You can go to thebullork.com subscribe join join bulwark plus, you'll also get access to the Secret Pod and some other goodies. And you don't have to, you know, listen to me talk about all of our great sponsors who we love and appreciate. And one more thing, the show notes. Today we're going to. If you are looking for some ways to support the firefighters and the victims in California, we're going to put some vetted links in the notes. So with that, my guest today, a writer and editor at Protect Democracy. She's co author of the authoritarian playbook for 2025 prescient how an Authoritarian President Will Dismantle Our Democracy and what We can do to Protect it. It's my former colleague, Amanda Carpenter. How you doing, Amanda?
- [01:57]
Amanda Carpenter
Hey, Tim. Happy Friday.
- [01:59]
Tim Miller
Is it a happy Friday? It is. You know why it's a happy Friday?
- [02:02]
Amanda Carpenter
Fake it til you make it.
- [02:03]
Tim Miller
Yeah, we're gonna fake it till we make it. You know why it's a happy Friday? I wanna start here. I wanna start with Karen Pence.
- [02:10]
Amanda Carpenter
That's unexpected from you, Tim.
- [02:12]
Tim Miller
I know, but, Mother, I owe you an apology. I was not really familiar with your game. She just snubbed Donald Trump. She hard snubbed Donald Trump at the Jimmy Carter funeral service at the National Cathedral yesterday. And I'm going to do something that I don't usually do, Amanda, but in honor of Mother. You know, the Catholics, as cradle Catholics, we're not big on, like, quoting Bibles. We're more about the saints than we are about the Bible verses. But the evangelicals, they're very Bible focused, as you know. And I was wondering if Karen had Ephesians 6:13 in her mind yesterday. For our struggle is not against the flesh and blood, but against the rulers, the authorities, against the powers of the dark world will put on the full armor of God so that. So that when the day of evil comes, you may be able to stand your ground. And after you've done everything, stand firm then with the belt of truth buckled around your waist, with the breastplate of righteousness in place and with your feet fitted with the readiness that comes with the gospel of peace. She just turned her cheek. That was it. She put on her breastplate of righteousness and said, I'm not going to buddy up to you, Donald, like Barack Obama is. I am gonna let you know with my eyes that you are evil and good on you. Karen Pence. What do you think about that? Am I overthinking it?
- [03:30]
Amanda Carpenter
That's a great Bible verse. I like that one. I like that one a lot. You know, it's remarkable. I mean, Michelle Obama, notably, didn't show up at all. Apparently. She told the press that she had a scheduling conflict while she's on her extended vacation in Hawaii.
- [03:44]
Tim Miller
She had to wash her hair. She was supposed to sit next to Trump. I would have also had a scheduling conflict. It's a busy day. Bed, Bath and Beyond. Got to go to Home Depot. We got to do some grocery shop. You know, I got to do some returns. We got some. Get presents we didn't like over Christmas. I just can't. Can't make it.
- [04:00]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah, but I mean, what Karen did there, I mean, it's pretty. It is pretty remarkable given the pressures in that room. I mean, obviously, she knew every eye was trained on her, every camera, every photographer there, and she just sat there, which is, you know, it's. It's a small act, but that is a major act of defiance, especially given the way her husband, Mike Penn, jumped up, shook his hand, you know, did the. You know, I'm a sober, responsible person.
- [04:26]
Tim Miller
Thing, which was like 2017 again with him. He did this. He did the shoulder shrug, you know, like the little tepid smile, meek smile.
- [04:34]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah, There was a lot of interesting body language there. What was it with George Bush tapping Obama on the belly as sort of like, thanks for taking one for the team guy. But, you know, I've read there's a lot of people upset that Barack Obama and others didn't have more of a Karen Pence type act of defiance against Trump. I am not sure what the right thing to do is there. I mean, are you really gonna, like, stage a fight at Jimmy Carter's funeral?
- [04:57]
Tim Miller
No, I am, I am, Amanda. I don't. I mean, to each their own, but me and mother, we're staging a fight at Jimmy Carter's funeral. I wanna. There was one element of the Trump and Obama exchange that I think is interesting, that I think is worth discussing before we get into the real news. Trump had a little presser after the funeral, you know, the post, the traditional post funeral press conference, of course, and he weighed in on. On a very friendly exchange with former President Obama. What looked to be very friendly. What were you talking to Barack Obama about?
- [05:28]
Donald Trump
It did look very friendly, I must say. I didn't realize it. I didn't realize it. How friendly it looked. I saw it on your wonderful network just a little while ago before I came in. And I said, boy, they look like two people that like each other. And we probably do. We have little different philosophies, right? But we probably do. I don't know, we just got along, but I got along with just about everybody.
- [05:54]
Tim Miller
That makes me very upset, Amanda. I don't know. How does that make you feel?
- [05:58]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah, I kind of felt like you could see the conflict in Trump's mind in that clip that he knows being buddy buddy is bad for his street cred, right, with the MAGA base. But this is actually what he wants. He wants to be in the President's club. He wants to be the guy that is acknowledged and respected at the White House correspondence dinner. And he kind of, in some of the pictures, really looked. I mean, honestly, for the first time in a long time, it looked like he was enjoying himself, which is weird to have that amount of enjoyment at a funeral. But I do think this speaks to what really motivates Trump.
- [06:32]
Tim Miller
Not if you're an angel of death. If you're an angel of death, funerals maybe are right up your alley. Here's what bugs me about it. Maybe this is a personal thing and Maybe I'm, like, triggered. Maybe this is Jeb. Ptsd. Because he did this shit to Jeb, right? He would insult Columba and, like, make racist jokes about. About his wife on stage. And then he'd go backstage and be like, hey, I want to be buddy buddy with everybody. Like, it was just a. Like, Trump really does not believe that words have consequences, that there are any consequences to this sort of thing. And he doesn't see why it's a big deal. It's all just a show. It's all just wrest or the Apprentice or whatever. I mean, he perpetrated a lie about how the first black president was born in Africa for a decade. And it's like, we're just going to be like, okay, man, well, whatever. 49.9% of Americans who showed up to the polls voted for you. So now we're just going to, like, make jokes about it. It's cool. The Mexican jokes and the. The. You were born in Africa, whatever. Like, we're just moving on now in the second.
- [07:33]
Amanda Carpenter
If Obama was ever going to put himself in this position when it seems like he's taken himself out of it for the indefinite time being, if Obama started giving speeches, started supporting candidates, starting becoming active in public life in a way that posed a challenge to Trump's authority and power, Trump would flip like a dime again. But the reason why I think they can be. He can be buddy buddy with Obama. I'm not speaking to Obama's side of it is that Obama is no longer an obstacle to him.
- [08:02]
Tim Miller
That isn't. And that makes me upset. So that's why I'm with Karen. Me and Karen and Michelle. It should f. This guy. No, nothing. You get no quarter. Okay.
- [08:13]
Amanda Carpenter
It's uncomfortable to see them all getting along together. I probably would have done what Michelle Obama did is just not go at all. That's probably not the right thing. The right thing is probably what Karen Pence did. I mean, what do you do? Do you ask for separate seating arrangements?
- [08:28]
Tim Miller
Sure.
- [08:28]
Amanda Carpenter
You know, Obama, Bush, when you are.
- [08:30]
Tim Miller
A former first lady of the United States, the Democratic president's funeral, you could just be like, hey, I'd like to sit on the other pew.
- [08:36]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. Yes.
- [08:38]
Tim Miller
It's not like there's a law. Like, who's got. Is somebody going to come arrest me if the presidents don't sit in the.
- [08:42]
Amanda Carpenter
President'S pew, Shout, sit next to all former presidents. According to.
- [08:47]
Tim Miller
Anyway, these fuckers. We're the only ones that follow the rules. And he gets away with it. All right, I Want to do kind of related, actually, an unintentionally clean transition. There are a couple of rulings yesterday, court rulings. I want to get your take on Supreme Court 5 to 4 ruling said that Trump does not get to avoid sentencing in the New York hush money trial. This means that he will be inaugurated on January 20 as a convicted felon. Obviously, he's not going to jail or anything. And MAGA is upset at Amy Coney Barrett about this. She was one of the five that voted for it. I have a different kind of perspective. I'm curious, does this matter to you at all? I might. One of my New Year's resolutions was I'm not going to pretend to care about things I don't care about. And I really. It's just, it's hard for me to get my dander up about this thing. Like, he's not going to jail. This isn't real consequences. It's, you know, it's in the history books, I guess, but I don't know. Do you. Can you convince me that I should care about this any more than I do?
- [09:45]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. Here, here's my read of the situation. Number one, good ruling. Number two, bad that it's only five. Four. Number three, this is helpful in going forward if I'm looking for the silver lining and that it further draws a line between immunity for official acts, which is broad and alarming, and personal acts. Right. Like this is. This is a new world that we're in. The Supreme Court has ruled that Trump and any other president has immunity for official acts. What this further clarifies is that he cannot get away with everything. There is a line here. You can't pay a porn star to cover up information to further your campaign. That is not an official act. Okay, so now we do have some kind of line. Again, I'm looking for silver linings here.
- [10:36]
Tim Miller
Okay. That's a good silver lining. Actually, I hadn't found one yet, so that is true.
- [10:43]
Amanda Carpenter
Yes. And so while we are all rightly concerned about the broad immunity ruling, we also should be careful to cling to what constraints we can have. And we will need to further define what can be personal acts from official acts, but things to further his campaign and further his political interest. I think we can feel comfortable drawing a line there and fighting for that. And also we should remember that this broad immunity does not extend to other people in the White House outside of the president, who may carry act official unlawful orders. Now, this is somewhat nuanced because Trump does have the pardon power, which we fully Expect him to exercise in pardoning January 6th rioters coming up here, but that would be another step there. And so as he goes into his second term with all of these plans to expand, expand his power and stamp out independence at federal agencies, that immunity does not apply to everyone at the Department of Justice, to everyone, you know, at the Department of Homeland Security, at the Department of Defense. And we should, you know, be very clear about that and make that distinction known to everyone who is entering that administration.
- [12:01]
Tim Miller
That's valuable. And obviously, as you say, the pardon thing is going to be something, you know, a big hurdle and a big fight ahead of us, and that's inevitable. Something you guys have been talking about, you've been talking about for a while. I do wonder your take on the Kremlinology of this with Amy Coney Barrett. Like I said, Cat Turd is really upset. You know, the Cat Turd crowd online is very upset. She's a traitor. And I sort of hope. This is going to sound weird, but I hope Cat Turd is right to be mad at Mamie Coney Barrett. I hope that she is really, you know, trying to draw lines about where the appropriate legal lines are for, you know, a president that is going to act unlawfully. Again, certainly. I don't know, though. To me, I kind of feel like this was a freebie. That's why it's more concerning to me that, like, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh didn't go along with it. Like, this was a freebie. For them to just be like, whatever. Like, this is the view that all of these justices always make their decisions purely based on their interpretation of the law, then, okay, that's one way to look at this. If you're the view that sometimes they're making political decisions like every other actor, and that and Robertson, Coney Barrett are like, well, you know, and he's not actually going to jail. And like, this isn't really that important. And we can throw a bone here, you know, to. To demonstrate some independence, to give us a little bit of. Give us a little leeway when things get dicier, because they're about to get dicier. You know what I mean? I don't know. Maybe that's cynical. That that was my read on it, but I don't know, maybe that's. That's wrong. What do you think?
- [13:29]
Amanda Carpenter
I am inclined to think, and I'm saying think because I don't have enough information to fully believe this is true. And maybe it's just kind of what I'm hoping is that Recognizing the fact that these judges are political actors, are they essentially sort of hiding behind Justice Barrett and allowing her to take the hit? And I don't believe this extends related to Justice Thomas. But, you know, she forecasts that she believed in drawing this distinction earlier on. And so did they just have a pretty good understanding that Roberts and Coney Barrett will take the hit on this and they will make sure that it was a 54 decision and we can essentially vote no and get all the kudos from Maga from it that accrues. Right. Like this is like kind of, you know, voting no is always the safest thing if you can get other people to actually do the policy work that, you know, is better for the country. I'm wondering if maybe, I'm hoping if that is actually part of the dynamic on the Supreme Court. There's a lot of five, four decisions that allow people to take the easy way out.
- [14:36]
Tim Miller
All right. Well, it's just in as we're talking about this, Donald Trump has now been formally adjudicated as a convicted felon. So there you go. That and two bucks won't even get you a cup of coffee these days. All right, we've got some other news.
- [14:52]
Amanda Carpenter
I mean, it's just that it's just hard to hear. Right. It's hard to sit with this stuff and find encouragement and motivation to keep going. But that is what we have to do. And I want to be clear when I'm drawing these distinctions about the path that we can fight on going forward, I am certainly not happy that the path has become so narrow. But I think we should be realistic about that is what it is. And we do have some footing to go forward on.
- [15:26]
Tim Miller
Concur. One more court item to get to a federal appeals of court rejected Trump's request to block the release of Special Counsel Jack Smith's final report. Judge Eileen Cannon was obviously the judge of choice there who was trying to help block it, even though she didn't have any jurisdiction over the matter. This has been overturned. The report's blocked, I guess, for three more days absent further appeal. So it could be released as early as Sunday day. Both JBL and Bill Kristol, I think, wrote about this this week about the importance of releasing the report. Do you have any additional thoughts on that?
- [16:01]
Amanda Carpenter
No, it needs to get out. I mean, we're going through these machinations now, but I cannot imagine that a document of this significance with all the people that have access to it, especially Biden with the as JBL has pointed out, he enjoys the same kind of official immunity that Donald Trump will.
- [16:16]
Tim Miller
Bingo.
- [16:17]
Amanda Carpenter
Put it out. Put it out. Or what you're going to say because Judge Eileen Cannon said no, it is absurd. Absurd. Put it out.
- [16:26]
Tim Miller
What? The marshal of Eileen Cannon's court is going to come and arrest Joe Biden and Merrick Garland if he puts it out. Give me a break. Hopefully we'll get to see it and that will be something we'll be able to chew over next week. There's another news item I want to pick your brain on. Then I want to get bigger, bigger picture, a little more esoteric about how we're looking at the next four years. We talked, I guess, on Wednesday's POD with Liam Donovan and Brendan Boyle about the upcoming budget fights.
- [16:51]
Amanda Carpenter
By the way, can I just say something? Liam Donovan was so, so good. He was so good at explaining reconciliation. People should save that. It should be taught to incoming Hill staffers. I just great, great guest. I really enjoyed it.
- [17:06]
Tim Miller
Yeah, he's annoying sometimes. So I don't, you know, I don't love just like I don't love just buttering him up with so many compliments. But he was very good at that specific task at which I granted which I tasked him. So I appreciated him coming on and doing it.
- [17:18]
Amanda Carpenter
Don't say that about me on future podcasts. She's really good at. She's actually super annoying.
- [17:25]
Tim Miller
I would never.
- [17:26]
Amanda Carpenter
Amanda, your commenters can say that.
- [17:28]
Tim Miller
We love Amanda. All caps. Amanda. So anyway, Jody Arrington, who is the Budget Committee chair, we're talking to Brandon Boyle, who's their Democratic ranking member. Jody Arrington is the Republican member. It was interesting. There's a punchbowl to report out from behind the scenes of the kind of negotiations that are happening over this tax bill and reconciliation and how they're going to fund everything. And I guess Arrington showed some slides to other members of some of his proposals that included increasing the corporate tax rate, which made people very upset. I guess that was the only thing that made people upset. It also included deep, deep cuts to Medicaid and other getting rid of some of corporate write offs, some corporate taxes. The nuts of it is that Arrington at least is acting like he cares about are debt right now. And there are some members of the House Republican Conference who have made their bones. Chip Royce one, I think maybe. Did you ever work were you and Chip on the same staff?
- [18:29]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah, he was my chief of staff in the cruise office. I worked very, very closely with him.
- [18:34]
Tim Miller
So your old boss, Chip Roy is kind of the top of this right There are still some OG Tea Party people in there and a handful of new people who have been running on debt and deficit. And they have this challenge coming up this year where if you extend the Trump cuts, it's going to be 4 or 5 trillion more dollars added to the debt the way they did the budgeting with all the expirations from the 2017 tax cut. And so these guys, if they're going to, they either got to put up or shut up on whether they care about this. And if so, there have to be offsets. The only way to do that is going to be to increase taxes. Arrington proposed the corporate tax rate or maybe not extend it on rich people. I find that very hard to believe that the Republicans will do that or have these massive cuts with Medicaid being on the top of the list. And you know, you might want to mention that there are a lot of, there are a lot of MAGA Americans that are on Medicaid, I should note. So I don't know, I was just wondering kind of with your former Tea Party hat on, like what you think about the coming fight and whether you think any of your former brethren will actually hold the line on this or if they end up just, you know, doing King of Debt part two.
- [19:45]
Amanda Carpenter
Well, holding the line always leads to discussions of government shutdown, which we've learned many times. And Donald Trump hasn't necessarily been hurt by government shutdowns. So I don't think I would rule that possibility out. That said, just for interesting political dynamics, where's Elon Musk and Vivek when you need them? Right. Weren't they supposed to be tasked with finding the spending cuts that we are going to need in the future? This would be the time that they should be recommending them to Congress. And so if I were Chip Roy.
- [20:19]
Tim Miller
Didn'T you see that he mentioned on, he mentioned on Mark Penn's podcast? Mark Penn. I didn't even know Mark Penn had a podcast. Very low rated podcast. Elon went on. It's something about Mark Penn and, and Elon admitted on that that he, the Doge is not gonna be able to find the 2 trillion. So, so if the tax cut extended or 4 or 5 trillion depending on who you talk to, and Elon can't, he's already admitting that maybe, maybe one is the most you could find for cuts. For Doge, the only way to make the math work is to jack up the debt more to raise taxes or to have very steep cuts to entitlements. Those are the three options My question.
- [20:54]
Amanda Carpenter
Here, if I were Chip Roy, I would, I would be thinking about saying, well, hey, Elon Musk signed up to have spending cuts. And so I look forward to having meeting with him and finding the biggest cuts possible to do this. Like, I would try be enlisting him into this because the reality is they want to have this fake, you know, congressional committee, spending commission to make cuts to programs they don't like to hurt people that challenge their interests. Right. Like that's actually what Elon wants to do. But bring them into the fold. Right. Like you signed up for this, Vivek. Like, we need this many cuts to make this work. Let's, let's go. You know, and the Democrats should be similarly like calling on them, like, where is it? Where is it? Because we do need to find a way to get to reality earlier on. And if this just becomes an endless process of kicking the can down the road, having a reconciliation bill where we don't pay for any tax cuts, which has happened, you know, numerous times before, it doesn't really get anywhere. And this is the question of what actual policy wins do Republicans expect to achieve with Trump. And I think that's a very big, big, big open question. And what was funny to watch earlier this week, Trump went to the Hill to meet with Senate Republicans and people talked to the press after and said, oh, you know, the aides, I guess they were kind of upset. Well, Donald Trump didn't give us any guidance about whether we should do one big beautiful spending bill or a lot of different spending bills, which is the better policy and is more, you know, hard, hard to do, but it actually does result in a better process. And it's like cuz he doesn't care. He doesn't care. They would love, if you listen to Larry Kudlow and the others, they just want a big bill, just like the Republicans and Tea Party people have traditionally criticized the Democrats for doing, doing a big bill where everyone has a gun head, where they have to absolutely pass everything in a massive, reckless, unsustainable spending bill or get nothing at all. I mean those dynamics have not changed.
- [22:50]
Tim Miller
Well, they've changed in one way actually. Their majority is even smaller.
- [22:53]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah.
- [22:53]
Tim Miller
And literally it's, I mean, Tom Massey who doesn't give an F and he really doesn't like if there's one person in the House that could not care less about whether Donald Trump gets good.
- [23:05]
Amanda Carpenter
Massey in a bad, messy sometimes. And like I still, I feel the same way about Rand Paul. Like Rand Paul pushes some really great policies sometimes. Like with Emergency use and abuse and that kind of stuff. But then, you know, we just got to find a way to keep them on that. Like, listen, like, you believe the debt is out of control. You have to do something about it.
- [23:23]
Tim Miller
And it is. There's 36 trillion. So that's it. I mean, like, it's. They're in a much bigger pickle than I think that a lot of people realize. And all it takes is two of them. Your old buddy Chips, you should start texting them again. And Thomas Massie, and they can cripple the whole damn thing.
- [23:38]
Amanda Carpenter
And Chip has done it before.
- [23:41]
Tim Miller
They've done it before.
- [23:44]
Amanda Carpenter
Right?
- [23:45]
Tim Miller
Guys, I got to tell you, it is chilly here in the south. We've had a, you know, cold streak. It was down to, I don't know, 41 degrees or something yesterday.
- [23:54]
Amanda Carpenter
Brr.
- [23:55]
Tim Miller
And so in that kind of weather, a good hoodie is essential. And I don't know about you, but sometimes it's tough to find a hoodie that lasts season after season. And I'm happy to recommend, I think, my favorite hoodie from our sponsor, American Giant. The American Giant Classic full zip hoodie is made to last a lifetime. You can count on it to bring you comfort and warmth year after year. Slate magazine called it the greatest hoodie ever made. And from cotton to zipper, it's made right here in the usa. Tyler, my husband, actually had an American Giant hoodie before their response or way back. And he couldn't have been more pumped when he found out that American Giant was now supporting the pod. So we can get some new hoodies in, you know, get. Refresh it, get some different colors, get some different weights. And he had the heavyweight. We tried out the lightweight. Just got one in yesterday. And boy, it is cozy. Gotta tell you, I also tried out some of the pants, some little khaki chinos from American Giant. I'm not a big khaki man, but I got a. One of those colored chinos to. It's kind of wear. Maybe. It's probably, it's really probably going to be more for next fall, you know, when I want to get into Al Gore earth tones. And I was pretty. I was pretty happy about those. I tried them on yesterday too. So go check it out. So it's not just about the hoodies. American Giant makes staples that are anything but basic, like the premium slub crew tee, no bs High rise pant and slim rough neck pant. So this season, snag the hoodie that will bring you comfort for life. The American giant classic full zip and save. 20% off your first order at american-giant.com when you use code bulwark at checkout, that's 20% off your first order at American-giant.com code bulwark. I want to talk about Greenland and some of that stuff and some of the bigger picture, but I want to put it into this context. The Gulf of Trump. Gulf of America. My Gulf of Trump idea where we sell it to him in exchange for something that hasn't really taken off yet.
- [25:51]
Amanda Carpenter
It's just a licensing agreement.
- [25:54]
Tim Miller
It's just a licensing agreement in exchange. Exchange for. I don't know. There are some. I got. My buddy sent me a link. There's some Norwegians that think that they can. I'm gonna F this up so scientists don't get mad at me in the comments. But like, you can take a ship and put bubbles into the Gulf when you see a hurricane is coming and the bubbles would. Would mess with the water temperature to such a degree that, like, it would calm the hurricane down, send it back out to sea. So maybe in exchange for the Gulf of Trump, we can. The Norwegians can license it and we can bubble solution. You never know. I don't know. Art of the deal. But all of this is under this rubric you posted onto Blue Sky. Actually, one more note of personal privilege before we get to your Blue sky esquite. People are like, why aren't you on Blue Sky? I'm never going to get onto Blue sky minute by minute. I'm just not going to do it. But I would like to be able to at least occasionally engage, share some of my material. Here's the problem. When Blue sky first started, like a week after it started, somebody was like, you should get on this. And so I got on and I have an account. You tagged me. Apparently it has a lot of followers. I have no idea what the password is. I've tried all of the passwords that I've always used. I'm not going to tell anybody what they are, but I've tried all of them. I've emailed bluesky support a couple times and I can't get into the account. And so if anybody works for bluesky and listens to this, wants to help me get into the account, then maybe I could engage with my. With my 100,000 followers or whatever it is. So that's the answer for people wondering why I haven't skied it. Anyway, you were telling your, you know, do it. Do we have a term for. For Blue sky fans? You know, like Beliebers for Justin Bieber?
- [27:40]
Amanda Carpenter
I don't think so.
- [27:41]
Tim Miller
The carpenters. Anyway, we'll think about that. You were telling your carpenters that they're coming on the pod and asking them what if they had any suggestions or topics. And one of them wrote, how do we spend the next four years focused on the real issues and not reacting to every Trump troll and misdirection? You said you have a lot of thoughts on this, so I want to hear them.
- [28:01]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. So this is something that I have been contemplating, and I expect to launch a newsletter through Protect Democracy. We have a free newsletter. Please subscribe. It's called if youf Can Keep It. But the biggest challenge we have ahead is, number one, distinguishing between what our real threats in. What's just noise. Right. Like, you know, I wrote a book, God, it was 2018, gaslighting America why We Love and Trump Lies. And like, we know just because we've lived in Trump's America, how he deliberately manufactures chaos to create confusion, to polarize people, to give himself operating distance and create opacity between himself in the press so that nobody can really understand what he's up to. And that all accrues to his benefit. So that's like the first layer task. But the second layer task is that he's going to have immense power. He expects to use it. So how do we focus on the things that really do matter in a productive way? And so what me and my colleagues at PD have been talking about is, okay, well, what is the most important thing that we can do going forward? We've sort of landed on the idea that it all revolves around protecting electoral competition in the future. Right. Like, we need the ability to compete. And I'm not talking about us as protect democracy, but the greater we of everyone who engages in politics, how do we compete effectively in 26 and 28? And that really isn't a test that should be left to the candidates at the last minute to organize campaigns per se. I think we can see that evidenced by what happened with Kamala Harris, because you really need much more infrastructure at the front end. And the biggest threat that Trump poses is entrenching power, expanding reach to sideline opponents. Right. Like that essentially, is what everything.
- [29:58]
Tim Miller
Urbanism. Yeah, it's preventing urbanism is what you're saying.
- [30:01]
Amanda Carpenter
Yes. The authoritarian playbook is all about sidelining opponents when you look at the end game of it. And that's all for the purpose of staying in power. This is why autocrats don't leave power. And this is probably one of the most, you know, controversial things that we talk about, that JBL talks about the idea that Trump will install himself into power and never leave. And that is a very real thing. That is what autocrats do. He ran for three for president and three consecutive elections and is back now. And maybe if he doesn't stay in power or he doesn't seek a third term, the odds are that he will play as kingmaker and call the shots behind the scenes and continue to play that role. And so everything that we should be looking at should revolve around finding ways to maintain a level playing field. I think that is the biggest threat. It's Trump entrenching power. And so we have to find ways to fight for that level playing field. So what does that practically mean? Number one, above all, it's protecting the civic space, our free speech rights, the right to report, the right to speak about things. Because if you lose that, if they are successful in suing critics like Olivia Troy to bully her into silence, if they are able to shut down Liz Cheney because of what she did, to speak out against January 6th, you are not going to have the ability to organize a campaign.
- [31:32]
Tim Miller
Well, in the inverse of that, if these tech oligarchs decide to do, to do only promoted speech of their own stuff. Right, Because Elon pretends to be a free speech guy, meanwhile forcing people to see his propaganda in the for your page and elevating all pro maga stuff and tamping down critics.
- [31:52]
Amanda Carpenter
And so this can take a lot of different forms, but protecting the space to speak wherever that comes is critical. And next step to do that is protecting individuals and organizations who are targeted because they challenge the administration. This is where the idea of, you know, you fight to protect Liz Cheney not because she's Liz Cheney and you like her, but because if they realize they can take her down with these meritless prosecutions and such, they're going to go after other people. So you fight on the first ground. You fight to defend those first targets. And I think along the way, that can have a unifying effect that helps the organization, that helps the campaigns, that helps the candidates refine these pro democracy messages in a way that are relatable to the public and not just speaking about it in abstract terms. And that is how you get along to the business of winning elections and along the way, making sure that you are protecting the rights to free and fair elections. Because electoral competition, this doesn't just mean, oh, we can go have a vote in November 2028, because there's a lot of authoritarian regimes where people have the guise of elections, they're just meaningless because the public already lost the ability to muster any meaningful opposition in the build up to them.
- [33:19]
Tim Miller
I'm curious then, I have a couple of specific examples I want to go through. But at the broadest level, I'm curious then, as we look to like, for example, next week will be having confirmation hearings. Right. So I assume, but maybe I'm wrong, that you guys are going to be monitoring. The ones that have the biggest potential impact on protecting the civic space is going to be Bondi, the AG Patel. I don't think we have a hearing date yet for Patel. Anything else that jumps out to you?
- [33:47]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah, I mean, this gets into the question which I think is important for everyone in this space. So knowing that if you agree with my thesis, if this thesis that is developing, that protecting electoral competition, all those things that go with it are the most important thing, how do you distinguish between what are just normal policy disputes that are politics as usual and things that actually fundamentally threaten the future of fair and free elections in electoral competition? So let's take Cash Patel, for example. It would be within the purview of a new FBI director to come in and say, the president campaigned on stepping up drug enforcement and I have a plan to go after these drug cartels and allocate a bunch more resources to do that. Like, okay, that is a normal policy. They are entitled to advance that. You may have political disagreements with it, but that's within the bounds of what administration is entitled to do in terms of like policies. That is much different than Kash Patel coming in and saying, I have an enemy's list and I am going to essentially harass them, use taxpayer resources against them for the purposes of sidelining them as political opponents and obstacles to our power. Right. Like those are two different things. And being able to tell the difference amid all the challenges that we have coming, I think is going to be absolutely critical in terms of maintaining a productive means of prioritizing the threats.
- [35:27]
Tim Miller
So let's kind of talk about what that exactly looks like in the context of, I think the questioner was probably asking, like, okay, because you get this a lot. What do we focus on? We're getting distracted. He's distracting us. Right. And the most obvious distraction effort this week was Gulf of Trump, Gulf of America, we're going to take Greenland, Canada's going to be the 51st state. He brought that up again at the press conference yesterday. I think that there are a lot of people that would say, looking at the Rubric. You just laid out that that stuff is frivolous. You should ignore it. I think I have a little bit of a different view that's also just developing. I don't know that anyone has a perfect answer to all this, but I'm curious what your responses under that construct.
- [36:12]
Amanda Carpenter
There's different roles for different organizations, different people, different sectors of civil society. A lot of this is silly, but, yeah, like, should we let this go? But, okay, part of maintaining that competitive electoral profile means not waiting until 26 and 28. My sort of question, which is outside my lane at pd, is where are the platforms that the Democrats. Because we only have a two party system, we only have two options essentially in every ballot. What are they doing to foster and cultivate talent in order to be ready for that moment? And what that should mean is where are the events and things happening where people can have answers to this and say things like, okay, you want to go to Greenland? Like, show me how much is it going to cost? Like, come back and put the burden. The burden of Trump was sort of something I'm thinking about, like, put the burden back on Trump. He throws all kinds of stuff back out there. And I was inspired, you know, listening to you speak about this the other day, say, okay, bring me the proposal we have out of control duck. You can't pass a tax bill. You want to go buy Greenland. You think that's a great idea, but that isn't like the ground we necessarily fight on. But, you know, I always look back to, you know, how did the Tea Party movement gain such power? It did not happen overnight. It happened over a long period of time with all these conferences and events where people were constantly testing out messages and giving speeches and testing their appeal. Right. And I just don't see that happening. Why can't the Democratic primary for 2028 start to begin right now? We didn't have one last time because we waited. Everyone waited to the last minute. What are you waiting for, guys?
- [37:57]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I agree with that. Getting out there. So here's how I kind of divide all this to your point of there's different rules for different people in civic society. I think that your point, and JVL writes about this a lot in the Triad, is that protecting democracy, use a pun, but protecting our civic space, elections, that is the prime thing. That is the thing where people need to fight, where donors and lawyers should be in the field, ensuring that people's basic rights are protected and that our constitutional republic goes forward without any efforts by an aspiring autocrat. To undermine it. I totally agree. That's the prime work and objective of the next four years. But also, the Democrats. Now, to your next point. Have a political objective, which is to actually win some power back so they can wield power inside the government in 2026 and 2028. And here, I think, is where you get to the interesting strategic question, because I think the person that skeeted you on Blue Sky, I think they were saying that there is this conventional wisdom that's like, Trump distracts us with this stuff, and we should focus only on the serious stuff, because that is how you win elections, and that is how. And that's how you don't play his game. And I don't know, I've just. I actually had that view for a little while in the last midterm, in particular when it was successful for Democrats in the first Biden midterm. And I'm starting to change my mind on it for this reason. Again, we're working this out in real time. If anybody had the sure proof answer to this, Donald Trump wouldn't be being inaugurated again in a week. But I was watching. I was on a little TikTok, and I was scrolling through, and I stomped on one of the sports podcasts that I watched. This one of the bros. No. Yeah. Well, I mean, they're bros, but, yeah. I don't know. I don't think it's a sport they didn't have any political guests on. It's called Pardon My Take. Shout out to pfd. So, Pardon My Take. They were talking about Greenland, right? Like, they were talking. They're like, you think this is a good idea? Should we buy Greenland? Go America. Isn't that awesome? Go America. We should buy Greenland. And those are the people that helped Trump win, right? Trump won because he gained among people that only knew about the Haitians and Greenland and the stupid stuff. They don't care about reconciliation, Right. They don't care that much about the intricacies of immigration policy, even though I do. They don't care about protecting civic space. You know what I mean? They're only engaging with Trump on the stupid shit that Trump puts out there. That's their whole political life, like, worldview. And so that just makes me wonder if the Democrats are making a mistake by saying, okay, no, we're just gonna focus on the serious stuff that really threatens people's lives, and we're gonna let him do all this S stuff and dominate the news and dominate the battle space for the next four years and continue to gain Ground among these folks that read the newslets. And that is what makes me think, no, actually, the Democrats should be playing his fucking game. And I don't exactly know what that means in the Greenland context, but I saw the next level is in the Harvey Weinstein context. It's like maybe instead of focusing on whatever that the Democrats should be out there and being like, like, not Harvey Wednesday. When I say Harvey Weinstein, I meant Jeffrey Epstein. Sorry, sorry, I was confusing my sex pass in the Jeffrey Epstein context. It's like, it's like Trump. Let's see it. Why haven't you released it? Oh, wait, are you, Are you the pedo? Actually, were you the, Were you the person. Was it the pedo coming from inside the House after all? Like, let's see all the, you know what I mean? Like stuff that does break through to the broader electorate. I don't know. So what do you think about that? Which is like the counter argument to don't get distracted by the cell stuff.
- [41:44]
Amanda Carpenter
Here's how I see it. Protecting the civic space is a duty, you know, as you mentioned, the lawyers and things like that. But protecting that space also means taking it up, right? Like, you can maintain a level playing field, but if you don't have people on it as active participants in the game, what is the point? And so this is something, you know, I was very delighted to see that Sarah is putting a big, bad, bold goal of getting a million sort of subscribers on the free list for Bulwark, because that's sort of what it's going to take. Like, we all know traditional media is dead, right? Cable news ratings are absolutely in the basement because nobody gets their stuff there. So go to where the audience is, right? Take up that civic space to communicate with people. Good point. And like, free media is the media. It's YouTube, it's TikTok, it's all those things. And I don't know why, like, it's just, it's so odd to see that people are still resisting what is so obviously happening. You know, you always find these, like, consultants and things like that. Well, we need new messengers, we need new messages. No, like, just go have conversations where people are at, get on YouTube. And I, you know, it's hard to do. And I really commend Bulwark especially for being so pioneering because it is hard to do and to show up. But a lot more people need to be getting into the free media space and finding ways to, I mean, it's not going to be profitable to be able to pay to give People that information in that way.
- [43:23]
Tim Miller
I do think there are bad ways to be distracted by Trump. Speaking of the failures of the establishment media, I hate being a media critic. I try to do as little media criticism on here as possible because to your point, it's increasingly pointless because it's not where people are getting their news. But I had to do it on this one, on Greenland, just so people can understand the distinction. I'm talking about. I'm talking about trying to asymmetrically attack Trump by going after these things that are tabloidy and having Democratic politicians and people that oppose Trump try to use his own methods against him. I'm not talking about the mainstream media taking him seriously before he's actually put his money where his mouth is. As you said, Amanda, the politicians headline today. As I was on politico.com looking for topics. Can Trump buy Greenland? Technically, yes. Here are his options. No.
- [44:21]
Amanda Carpenter
Good. Do the work for him.
- [44:23]
Tim Miller
No, don't help him. Okay. Like, don't help him. All right. It's not actually the job of journalists to, like, Donald Trump farted out some stupid thing that somebody told him on the golf course, and now it's. Now we're gonna put a real serious context around it. There was a New York Times version of this that somebody sent me that was like. Like, Donald Trump's strategy to buy Greenland is actually an effort to mitigate against the threat of climate change.
- [44:49]
Amanda Carpenter
I mean, isn't it, like, it's just scouting out properties for another Trump hotel? Like, isn't that the most probability?
- [44:56]
Tim Miller
The biggest probability is that it looks big on a map. And he's like, that looks big and cool. And I want the big and cool thing on the map because of the way the cartography works.
- [45:07]
Amanda Carpenter
But when it comes to, like, having a political answer to this sort of stuff, I mean, it is, I've gotta say, watching. Watching Don Jr go on this trip to Greenland while California is burning, right? California is burning to a crisp.
- [45:23]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [45:24]
Amanda Carpenter
And we know that Donald Trump has explored the idea of withholding wildfire funding for previous California wildfires because he didn't think the voters there were sufficiently supportive. What in God's name. Like, this is where I'm talking about, like, why aren't the Democrats starting to. I don't say campaign now, but can't there be a big event to say, hey, guys, do you think climate change is real now? I mean, I know this is not the exact moment to do that, but someone. Isn't that, like, what is staring us in the face? And we don't have any answers, any solutions. Then maybe John Jr. Wants to build a new hotel in Greenland that he can flee to. What Elon's going to do to spaceship to Mars and the planet burns down. I mean, this kind of seems like obvious stuff. Maybe not right now because it is so horrific, but I am kind of, I, I am flabbergasted that, you know, there's split screen coverage of everyone losing their home. And, you know, what's Trump going to do next? Is he going to buy Greenland? It's just such a jarring thing where, you know, we are living in different realities and we need to fight to have some kind of shared vision of what is going on and what threatens us.
- [46:42]
Tim Miller
Well, way to think about it is America first and right. Like, there's a way for Democrats to engage in this in the Americans first context, which is like, it's real Americans that are suffering, right? And you said that you're gaining in California and like, there are real Americans in Altadena that voted for Donald Trump that are suffering and you're, and you're right now angling to get new property in Greenland or invade the Panama Canal. That's not America first.
- [47:05]
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- [47:21]
Tim Miller
One last thing with the protect democracy hat on. The Elon kind of oligarch corruption. Part of it all. The musk of it all, you know? I do. Yeah, I do. I know. I can't believe. Oh, I'm officially a podcast. Cut that out. I hate the of it all. I got sucked in by all the other podcast hosts that use that phrase. Take out the of it all. Hold me accountable for my, for my verbal tics. Thank you, Amanda. Don't cut it out, Katie, but just, you know, let people hear me put on my own hair shirt for using these cliche tics. I can, I can do better next time. Elon, though, like, that is like, to me, there's a political argument there, you know, that the Democrats could use, you know, kind of going after these masters of the universe. But I'm interested in your view on kind of like the parallels to what we've seen in autocratic capture in other places around the world. I mean, this feels. There's been this era in the Gilded age in America before, but in kind of the modern time, in the post World War II World. The access that Elon has, the access that these super billionaires have to Trump feels much more like what we see in countries where we're concerned about the end of democracy than it feels like an American, a traditional American, and kind of I scratch your back, you scratch mine kind of stuff that we've seen from both parties.
- [48:41]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah, I mean, the rush of anticipatory obedience from people. I mean, Elon was obviously first in line to place all his bets on Trump and get the biggest, fattest seat at the Mar A Lago table possible. You see that followed with Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and others. And maybe that's just more obvious in a way then we see the other people lining up behind Trump. Like everyone's offering to get their hand in the till and pay for his inauguration. The ridiculous 15 million dollar defamation suit that ABC News settled, while they're like, you know, laying off people left and right, no longer engaging in the news gathering business. That that's all happening. And yeah, that is what you see in countries where you have to essentially be in with the leader and engage in that form of corruption in order to preserve your business interests. Right. Like it is in many ways an act of self preservation. Some people are more eager to do it than others. But aside from that, what you were talking about made me think about one of the other challenges is how do we do our job defending democracy, protecting spaces without defending or apologizing for the status quo. Right. Like, I think that's the trap that Harris and Biden and others fell into.
- [50:03]
Tim Miller
Yes.
- [50:03]
Amanda Carpenter
And saying that you want to protect institutions doesn't mean that they're perfect in knowing and explaining and understanding the difference between what is real reform and what leads to ruin is complicated, but necessary.
- [50:22]
Tim Miller
This is tough for me in particular because I do think the status quo is like, basically, fine, we have problems, but this is my small conservative. Like my inside is like, you guys want change, but I don't know, change might be bad and so we should be a little more careful. But that's a political loser and people, we should be thoughtful about it.
- [50:39]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. Not with health care, not with education, not with climate, not with. It's a lot of things in saying that, you know, everyone is fine and the economy is up, so therefore you have more money on your paychecks. It just, that doesn't translate to people without pensions, without the stock market, et cetera. So, yeah, bad politics, like a whole.
- [50:56]
Tim Miller
Other thing I'm aware of the ways in which some of my priors or bad politics have been. Been. I've been made painfully aware of that.
- [51:01]
Amanda Carpenter
You are not responsible for this.
- [51:04]
Tim Miller
Well, excuse me. All right. Well, I'm burdening myself, so. Okay. I'm not unburdened by what has been.
- [51:11]
Amanda Carpenter
You shouldn't apologize for yourself.
- [51:12]
Tim Miller
I am very burdened by what has been, Amanda, to that point. Final thing, because we were talking about in the Green room. So we should bring it public.
- [51:20]
Amanda Carpenter
Okay.
- [51:20]
Tim Miller
We got 10 days, then he's going to be inaugurated again. That's going to be bad. I don't know. I've been thinking about it, and I'm going to New York mostly, so my family doesn't have to be around me.
- [51:32]
Amanda Carpenter
Because it's going to be healthy to hang out on the MSNBC side.
- [51:35]
Tim Miller
Yeah. I want Tyler to be able to live in peaceful bliss and, like. And stream some stupid TV show and, you know, go to the park, whatever. Go to crawfish boil. Crawfish season is back. And not have. Have me, you know, have to hear his voice in the background. And so that's how I'm dealing with it. But I think it's going to be tough. I mean, it is. It is such a repudiation of a lot of the good that we've believed about the country. That doesn't mean that there's no good left in the country. But it's hard to not think about that and not be depressed or discouraged. Worse than whatever the maximum version of discouraged is. It's hard not to think about. It will be hard not to experience that feeling next week. So, anyway, I thought maybe some listeners could get some value in hearing how you're processing it.
- [52:27]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah, I mean, it's gonna be tough. No doubt. I don't expect. I'm gonna tune in to watch it live. I'll see the pictures. I do want to read the speech to see, you know, how he approaches the second term.
- [52:41]
Tim Miller
I can already tell you it's gonna be the opposite of American carnage. He's gonna pretend to be. He's gonna pretend to be everybody's friend and pretend to unite, and we're gonna have to gag as people are like, whoa, look at this. Trump's turning over a new leaf. You might not have to read the speech. I'm telling you what it's gonna be.
- [52:55]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. This is part of it. Like, he. He gets his moment. He won. He gets to have the big ceremony. He gets to march down the avenues. All the pictures will be in Melania, all the media coverage is going to be glowing, right? Because they want to give him that sort of sweetener coming in. I don't think I'm going to be able to watch it. You know, people who are in the political opposition, don't let them see your tears. Don't do it. It. Don't do it. Tune out. Protect your mental health. This is going to be a long slug and you're going to have to have the energy. Don't burn it now. This is all it's going to be, a week of sugar cane coverage. Let it happen. You can't stop it. This is not something to stop. It's not something to fight over. There are going to be big issues down the road, you know, that's why I've worked with my colleagues to develop a framework on distinguishing what really matters and what doesn't. And him getting his in the picture, in the paper with his hand over the Bible and everyone smiling, isn't it?
- [53:58]
Tim Miller
Good advice will be tough for me to follow, but listeners should follow it if they can. You know, I gotta be here for the people that want to suffer with me. But yeah, I'm with you. No sadness porn.
- [54:09]
Amanda Carpenter
I listen to you, but I'm not.
- [54:10]
Tim Miller
Going to watch no sadness porn. We'll talk about feelings, but no sadness porn here, because as you said, we can't stop it. That's what we're living through. Amanda, please come back every month so we can talk through it all. It is so good to see you and my love to the family. Everybody else, we'll be back here on Monday. It's nine years since we lost David Bowie, so we'll take you out with a little Bowie. We'll be back here with Bill Crystal on Monday. See you all then. Peace.
- [54:40]
David Bowie
The pulse returns the prodigal sons with blackouts Hearts with flower Blues with skull designs upon my shoes I can't give everything I can't give everything away I can't give everything away Seeing more and feeling less Saying no but meaning yes this is all I ever meant that's the message Like I said I can't give everything I can't give Give everything away I can't give everything the.
- [56:42]
Tim Miller
Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.