The Bulwark Podcast: Episode Summary – "Ann Selzer: How Could This Be?"

Date: [Insert Date]

Host: Tim Miller
Guest: J. Ann Seltzer, President of Seltzer and Company

Introduction: A Surprising Iowa Poll

In this special Sunday edition of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller is joined by J. Ann Seltzer, the president of Seltzer and Company, renowned for her accurate polling in Iowa. The episode delves into a startling recent poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by a narrow margin of 47 to 44 among likely voters in Iowa.

Tim Miller [00:25]:

"We got the Shock Seltzer Iowa poll last night, 47 to 44 among likely voters in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris in Iowa."

Ann Seltzer [01:08]:

"Thank you, Tim. Good to be with you."

Unpacking the Poll Results

The conversation begins with Seltzer expressing surprise at the poll results, emphasizing the unexpected lead for Harris. She explains that the weighted data confirmed the unweighted trends observed since the interviews began on Monday night.

Ann Seltzer [02:28]:

"Harris was in the lead in Iowa. And that was nobody in their right mind would predict it."

Tim Miller [02:50]:

"Quite a remarkable change from your poll over the early summer that had President Biden down 18 to a poll in September that had it significantly closer to this one."

Seltzer attributes the turnaround to several factors, notably the recent congressional race outcomes in Iowa and the impact of the state's six-week abortion ban, which became a pivotal issue for voters.

Ann Seltzer [02:50]:

"The abtion issue... the law going into force and then people living with it for a while and it being a strong sort of compelling thing from Iowa's in the congressional districts."

Congressional Races Influence

Seltzer highlights that two Iowa congressional districts have tilted toward Democratic candidates, a shift driven primarily by the abortion debate. This shift in congressional preferences is believed to be influencing the presidential race, even in districts traditionally held by Republicans.

Ann Seltzer [02:50]:

"...the congressional races are driving the presidential race toward the Democrat."

Tim Miller [05:14]:

"The margin among women 65 and over is more than 2 to 1. It's 63 to 28."

Demographic Breakdown and the Gender Gap

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the gender gap in the poll, with women, especially older women, showing strong support for Harris. The data reveals that women aged 65 and over are overwhelmingly in Harris’s favor, registering a 63 to 28 margin.

Ann Seltzer [05:14]:

"That's sort of a jaw dropping number."

She also addresses the role of evangelicals, noting their continued strong support for Trump, which remains consistent at more than three to one.

Ann Seltzer [05:45]:

"They haven’t shaken off of their affection for the former president."

Methodology and Polling Accuracy

Seltzer defends her polling methodology against criticisms of being an outlier. She explains her process of weighting demographics to reflect the actual Iowa population, ensuring a balanced and representative sample.

Ann Seltzer [07:34]:

"Our method is we're looking to end up with 800 likely voters... we've controlled for that idea of response bias."

In response to concerns about poll herding and potential biases, Seltzer emphasizes the importance of her methodology's transparency and robustness, asserting that her approach has consistently provided accurate forecasts.

Ann Seltzer [10:05]:

"I want results that look like 2024. So when I hear people saying...that’s polling backward."

She candidly acknowledges past polling misses, such as the 2004 Senate race with Joni Ernst, and expresses confidence in her current methods while remaining cautious about future uncertainties.

Ann Seltzer [12:37]:

"I'm prepared that one day it will not work and that I'll blow up into tiny little pieces and be scattered across the city of Des Moines."

Implications for Future Elections and Other Swing States

The episode briefly touches on the potential implications of Iowa's polling results for other swing states like Wisconsin. Seltzer notes the unique political landscape of Iowa, which is markedly more Republican than Wisconsin, suggesting that direct comparisons may not be entirely applicable.

Ann Seltzer [18:30]:

"Iowa is so much more red than Wisconsin is. Both houses of our state House are Republican by large majorities... Wisconsin is more purple than that."

Closing Thoughts

As the conversation wraps up, Seltzer reflects on the evolving political dynamics in Iowa and the reliability of her polling methods. While acknowledging past polling inaccuracies, she remains optimistic about her current approach's effectiveness in capturing the true sentiments of Iowa voters.

Ann Seltzer [16:27]:

"We've controlled for that idea of response bias by making sure they're not overrepresented at the state level and then they are what they are at the likely voter level."

Tim Miller [20:00]:

"Thanks, Dan Seltzer. We'll be back tomorrow for our normal Monday edition of the Bulwark Podcast. Peace."

Key Takeaways

• Unexpected Leadership: Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in the latest Iowa poll by a margin of 47 to 44 among likely voters, a significant shift from earlier polls.

• Influence of Congressional Races: Recent congressional election results in Iowa, particularly those influenced by the abortion ban, are impacting the presidential race dynamics.

• Strong Gender Gap: The poll highlights a pronounced gender gap, with older women strongly favoring Harris, while evangelicals remain steadfastly supportive of Trump.

• Robust Methodology: Seltzer defends her polling methods against criticisms, emphasizing demographic weighting and transparency to ensure accuracy.

• Caution for Future Polls: While confident in her current methodologies, Seltzer acknowledges the challenges and uncertainties that may affect future polling accuracy.

Notable Quotes

• Ann Seltzer [02:28]:
  "Harris was in the lead in Iowa. And that was nobody in their right mind would predict it."

• Tim Miller [05:14]:
  "The margin among women 65 and over is more than 2 to 1. It's 63 to 28."

• Ann Seltzer [10:05]:
  "I want results that look like 2024. So when I hear people saying... that’s polling backward."

• Ann Seltzer [12:37]:
  "I'm prepared that one day it will not work and that I'll blow up into tiny little pieces and be scattered across the city of Des Moines."

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the latest Iowa poll results, offering insights into the current political climate and the factors influencing voter behavior. For listeners seeking an in-depth understanding of polling trends and their implications for the broader electoral landscape, this discussion with J. Ann Seltzer is both enlightening and thought-provoking.