The Bulwark Podcast: Anne Applebaum on Planning for a Techno-Oligarchic Regime

Release Date: December 13, 2024

Guests:

• Anne Applebaum: Staff Writer at The Atlantic, author of notable works including Autocracy Inc., Twilight of Democracy, and Gulag: A History.

Host:

• Tim Miller: Host of The Bulwark Podcast

Introduction to Authoritarianism's Allure

Timestamp: [02:01]

Tim Miller opens the discussion by addressing the unexpected resilience of authoritarian leaders in democracies, highlighting figures like Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, and Peter Thiel, who seemingly support the entrenchment of authoritarian regimes for personal or business gains. He references Marc Benioff's appearance on Maria Bartiromo's show, emphasizing the shift in political support among influential business leaders.

Tim Miller: "This is a moment where we are turning the page. It's an opportunity for a New chapter."

Anne Applebaum expands on this by drawing parallels between former leaders like Hugo Chavez and Viktor Orban with Donald Trump, noting how Trump's reelection despite numerous legal and ethical violations signals a troubling trend of accommodating or resigning to authoritarian leadership.

Anne Applebaum: "...it's more willing to say, right, we give up. This is the kind of regime that we have, we better learn to live with it."

The Business Community's Accommodation of Authoritarian Regimes

Timestamp: [04:41]

Applebaum discusses the misconception among some business leaders that empowering the state or consolidating executive power may benefit their businesses in the short term. She cites Hungary as an example where authoritarian control led to economic decline and increased corruption, warning that similar patterns could emerge in the United States if trust in the rule of law erodes.

Anne Applebaum: "Hungary... making the political system dependent on the whim of the leader, bending rules and undermining the rule of law actually made Hungary a terrible place to invest."

Peter Thiel and the End of the Liberal Order

Timestamp: [08:16]

The conversation shifts to Peter Thiel's public disillusionment with the liberal order, particularly his remarks on Piers Morgan's show where he declared the end of the "ancien regime." Applebaum acknowledges that figures like Thiel envision a transition to a "techno-oligarchic" regime, where power is concentrated in the hands of a few tech magnates, leading to decreased political influence for ordinary citizens.

Anne Applebaum: "They think that this kind of power... it's clearly the direction they're hoping to go in."

Miller juxtaposes Thiel’s visions with existing political structures, questioning the practical steps needed to dismantle the current system and the uncertainties surrounding what would replace it.

The Intersection of Business Interests and U.S. Foreign Policy

Timestamp: [11:39]

Miller highlights recent controversies involving the Trump family's business dealings in the Middle East, specifically the unveiling of a new Trump Tower in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. He references Chris Murphy's critique of how the Trump administration's policies may be compromised by familial financial interests.

Chris Murphy (clip): "...the normalization of Trump's financial empire to be woven into the statecraft of this country."

Applebaum underscores the unprecedented level of corruption where foreign policy decisions appear to directly benefit the Trump family, contrasting it with historical instances of corruption in U.S. foreign policy.

Anne Applebaum: "This level of corruption is brand new. It's not something we've had before."

Russian Economy and the Protracted War in Ukraine

Timestamp: [23:10]

Discussing NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's warning about Russia's war economy, Applebaum elaborates on how the shift towards a war-centric economy in Russia has solidified the continuation of conflict in Ukraine. She expresses skepticism about the prospects of negotiation, citing President Putin's unwavering objectives and the entrenchment of a war-dependent oligarchic system.

Anne Applebaum: "Once you are a leader whose power... it becomes very hard to stop for a lot of reasons."

Miller connects this to broader concerns about the sustainability of authoritarian regimes and the difficulty in transitioning back to democratic governance once deep-seated economic and political structures are established.

Romanian Elections and Foreign Interference

Timestamp: [27:38]

Applebaum discusses the complexities surrounding the Romanian elections, where Russian interference via TikTok and influencers led to the nullification of an election. She introduces the candidate Colin Georgescu, a pro-Russian, anti-war figure with dubious qualifications and connections to far-right and pseudoscientific movements.

Anne Applebaum: "The deep question here is whether Romania gets to decide what its electoral laws are like."

The conversation touches on the broader implications of social media platforms like TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, influencing democratic processes. Applebaum raises concerns about the enforceability of national electoral laws in the face of global tech ownership and the challenges it poses to maintaining fair and free elections.

Anne Applebaum: "How are they going to deal with it? Maybe they'll discount it or ignore it, or we'll all decide that it's free speech and end that again."

The Role of Voice of America and Leadership Controversies

Timestamp: [18:41]

Addressing the potential appointment of Carrie Lake as head of Voice of America (VOA), Applebaum critiques the suitability of Lake, highlighting her lack of journalism and public diplomacy experience, as well as her history of supporting false election narratives. She emphasizes the importance of VOA as a tool against Russian and Chinese propaganda and expresses concern over potential shifts in its leadership that could undermine its mission.

Anne Applebaum: "The idea that Carrie Lake would be the head of Voice of America is absurd on many levels. She has no journalism experience. She is a liar."

Miller speculates on the potential consequences if the leadership aligns with pro-autocratic interests, questioning the ability of the existing board to prevent such outcomes.

The Collapse of the Assad Regime in Syria

Timestamp: [37:24]

Applebaum analyzes the unexpected collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. She attributes the downfall to the withdrawal of Russian support, Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, and the regime's economic bankruptcy. A key factor was the loss of loyalty among the military and security forces, who deserted as they lost faith in Assad's ability to protect them and the populace.

Anne Applebaum: "When the rebel movement came into Aleppo, they took it. Not after a bloody, bitter battle... they basically walked in."

She draws parallels with other authoritarian regimes, such as Venezuela, where weakening loyalty among security forces could precipitate rapid political changes. Applebaum underscores the fragile nature of seemingly stable autocratic systems and their inherent vulnerabilities.

Israeli Policies and Impact on International Law

Timestamp: [35:50]

In discussing Israeli military actions, Applebaum presents a nuanced view. While acknowledging Israel's legitimate concerns about Iranian influence and the threats posed by groups like Hezbollah, she criticizes the disproportionate attacks on civilians in Gaza and Lebanon. She warns that such actions erode international norms and embolden other authoritarian regimes to disregard civilian protection in conflicts.

Anne Applebaum: "...attacks on Gaza... are contributing to the general feeling of lawlessness."

Miller and Applebaum contemplate the dual impact of Israel's actions: effective dismantling of certain threats versus the undermining of global standards for wartime conduct and civilian protection.

Conclusion: Navigating a World of Shifting Power Structures

Timestamp: [43:42]

As the conversation wraps up, Applebaum reflects on the complex interplay between authoritarian ambitions and democratic resilience. She acknowledges the precarious state of global democracies facing internal and external threats from oligarchic influences and authoritarian regimes.

Anne Applebaum: "All these apparently stable regimes have some very fundamental, profound flaws. And that includes Russia too, of course."

Miller appreciates the depth of the discussion, highlighting the importance of understanding these dynamics as the world navigates an era marked by shifting power structures and the resurgence of authoritarianism.

Notable Quotes:

• Anne Applebaum [02:55]: "It's dangerous. The US works because we have a culture of trust."
• Anne Applebaum [04:41]: "Hungary... made Hungary a terrible place to invest."
• Anne Applebaum [08:32]: "They think it'll be good for them in the short term, but in the longer term, it's dangerous."
• Anne Applebaum [11:39]: "This level of corruption is brand new. It's not something we've had before."
• Anne Applebaum [23:10]: "Once you are a leader whose power... it becomes very hard to stop for a lot of reasons."

Conclusion:

This episode of The Bulwark Podcast with Anne Applebaum delves deep into the mechanisms by which authoritarianism gains traction within democracies, the role of oligarchic influences in shaping political landscapes, and the vulnerabilities of seemingly stable regimes. Through insightful analysis and poignant examples, Applebaum and Miller explore the delicate balance between maintaining democratic integrity and the seductive allure of centralized power, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the challenges facing modern liberal democracies.