The Bulwark Podcast — "Bill Kristol: A Madman's Way of War"
Date: March 2, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Kristol (Editor-at-Large, The Bulwark)
Episode Overview
This episode centers on the outbreak of war between the United States (with Israel as a close co-belligerent) and Iran. Tim Miller and Bill Kristol dissect the military campaign's execution and objectives, the shifting and muddled rationale presented by the Trump administration, domestic and global political ramifications, and the unsettling confusion about American war aims. The conversation further links the conflict to domestic politics, Trump's leadership style, and the 2026 election climate, closing with a short discussion on the Texas primaries.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. State of Play: The War with Iran
- Military Campaign Scope
- The US and Israel have executed a sweeping campaign against Iranian leadership and military assets, going far beyond targeted strikes on nuclear or missile sites (01:10).
- “Wiped out a large percentage of the Iranian leadership and really a nationwide campaign against military assets... Way beyond degrading key nodes of the nuclear program…” — Bill Kristol (01:45)
- Casualties and Complications
- Four American soldiers confirmed dead so far; friendly fire led to loss of US planes in Kuwait (03:09)
- US installations and embassies in Middle East have been attacked, a school in Iran bombed, and regional escalation (esp. Hezbollah attacking Israel from Lebanon).
- Unclear Objectives
- “I think the most important question remaining here is what exactly is the goal of what we’re doing?” — Tim Miller (05:04)
- Multiple rationales floated: regime change, deterrence, nuclear nonproliferation, Trump’s legacy, revenge, with shifting explanations from administration officials and Trump himself.
2. Confusion and Lack of Strategy
- Disjointed Messaging
- Bill Kristol on Coherence:
- “I don’t really see what the coherent strategy is or the coherent rationale for the war or the defensible rationale for the war... What are our servicemen and women doing over there?” (08:21)
- Trump’s Vacillation:
- Trump’s weekend interviews cycle through regime change rhetoric, plans to talk with “new regime,” then laments all “candidates” to take over Iran are dead, then disclaims nation-building (09:09).
- “Minute by minute, they’re kind of going back and forth on whether they’re even interested in [regime change] or being involved in that.” — Tim Miller (10:58)
- Damaging Media Strategy:
- Ad hoc, conflicting messaging — “The president [Trump]… has randomly called up John Karl and Jake Tapper. That is crazy. It’s the biggest military operation we’ve been involved in in a generation. The president should be telling people what the point is.” — Tim Miller (11:55)
3. Possible Rationales & Theories
- Regime Change vs. Deterrence vs. Revenge
- No consistent answer on actual goals.
- Revenge as a motivator: “Trump to [Jonathan] Karl last night: ‘I got him before he got me on the Ayatollah. They tried twice. Well, I got him first.’ Maybe all this is just Trump wanted revenge against Iran.” — Tim Miller (18:11)
- Administration’s justifications swing between tactical (missiles/drones) and grand strategic (freedom in Iran, Trump’s legacy).
- Kristol’s Dismay:
- “It’s so demoralizing that we don’t have a serious objective… It’s not only—it doesn’t have to be [regime change], you could have a much more limited objective and that could be serious, but… there’s no evidence the actual planning, which is very impressive, is linked up to any sense of a broader strategic objective.” (19:19)
4. Global & Domestic Political Implications
- Geopolitics and Foreign Influence
- Israeli and Saudi influences: Bibi Netanyahu has long wanted decisive US action against Iran. Trump allegedly pushed by “Bibi and MBS” (24:55).
- “It seems like we’re being walked around the dog track by Arab and Israeli interests right now.” — Tim Miller (30:44)
- Gulf States support is ambiguous and public populations may sour if regional costs rise.
- US Internal Politics
- War is not popular at home: Ipsos poll — only 27% support, 43% oppose. Independents especially skeptical (36:18).
- Democrats are largely aligned against the war, finding mainstream appeal in a position of skepticism. “This is a shit show. They don’t have a plan. They haven’t offered a plan. Four people are dead. They haven’t come to Congress for support...” — Tim Miller (37:45)
- Congressional Authorization and the Constitution
- Kristol stresses constitutional crisis: No congressional authorization for a war of this scale, cannot be justified by post-9/11 AUMF (38:50):
- “The vote is a kind of Trump has to do what he should have done before war and come to Congress. That’s sometimes belittled on the left… But it really is the Constitution.” (39:55)
- Kristol stresses constitutional crisis: No congressional authorization for a war of this scale, cannot be justified by post-9/11 AUMF (38:50):
5. The War’s Effect on Trump and the GOP
- Trump’s Risk of Losing Support
- MAGA/isolationist vs. hawk split: Potential for major crack-up if casualties or escalation spiral.
- “This is the one thing that could really catastrophically capsize us... This is the one issue where Trump could go from 14% defections to 40% defections in six months among his voters for sure.” — Bill Kristol (48:28)
- J.D. Vance (VP, vocal isolationist) absent from public discussion, indicating GOP internal tension (41:50)
- Long-term Consequences & Political Bets
- War’s unpredictability: Possible quick “Venezuela-like” end, or entanglement and domestic backlash.
- “Trump is a little bit Jekyll and Hyde on it. I do think he'll want to get out… but we have four Americans dead. Don’t want to minimize that. But what if Iran has a much more successful attack... events can get out of control, things can get out of hand.” — Tim Miller (45:51)
6. Corruption & Foreign Money
- Trump’s Business Ties
- Saudis, UAE, Qatar: Host notes Trump is “mobbed up” with Gulf state money, raising further questions about influences on foreign policy (29:13)
- Pay-for-Play Perception
- “If you're around the world, the lesson is at least as long as Trump is around, this is like a pay for play thing. Get in with Trump.” — Tim Miller (32:16)
7. Whither the Region?
- Uncertain Outcomes Across Middle East
8. Closing: Texas Primaries and GOP Culture
- Brief rundown of Texas Senate primary: Paxton likely to beat Cornyn, Dems divided, and snarky analysis of Tony Gonzalez and Dan Crenshaw scandals (50:15).
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On the Conduct of the War:
- “It’s a very impressive military operation… but wars are wars, right? So we’ve lost four soldiers, sadly, and some planes and others. Iran is not disabled.” — Bill Kristol (02:28)
- On Presidential Responsibility:
- “It’s the biggest military operation we’ve been involved in in a generation. The President should be telling people what the point is.” — Tim Miller (11:55)
- On the Administration’s Mixed Messages:
- “This is not a regime change war, but the regime did change. I don’t know how we would splice that.” — Tim Miller quoting Pete Hegseth (13:49)
- On Domestic Impact:
- “This is the one issue where Trump could go from, from 14% defections to 40% defections in six months among his voters for sure.” — Bill Kristol (48:28)
Timestamps for Key Segments
| Time | Topic / Segment | |---------|--------------------------------------------------| | 00:27 | Show open; war with Iran overview | | 01:10 | Bill Kristol on scope and nature of military ops | | 03:09 | Casualties, international/domestic repercussions | | 05:04 | Discussion on the unclear U.S. war objectives | | 07:20 | Analysis of admin’s reluctance to explain goals | | 09:09 | Trump’s shifting justifications for the war | | 11:55 | Critique of media/public comms from White House | | 18:11 | Discussing revenge, “madman” motives | | 24:55 | Israeli/Saudi influence and regional alliances | | 29:13 | Impact of Trump’s foreign business entanglements | | 36:18 | Public opinion, polling on the war | | 38:50 | Congressional authorization and constitutionalism| | 41:25 | Internal GOP/MAGA divisions, JD Vance missing | | 48:28 | Risks for Trump: potential loss of support | | 50:15 | Texas primaries & commentary on GOP politicians |
Tone & Closing Thoughts
The conversation is anxious, skeptical, and at times incredulous at the lack of clarity and competence in the administration’s handling of the war. Both Miller and Kristol are deeply critical of the lack of strategic direction and transparency, note constitutional dangers, and see the risk of political and geopolitical fallout as very real. Throughout, the tone is urgent but grounded in realpolitik, with moments of gallows humor and concern about the cost in lives, legitimacy, and American interests.
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