The Bulwark Podcast: "Bill Kristol: A Stupid and Insane Foreign Intervention"
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Kristol

Episode Overview

In this episode, Tim Miller and Bill Kristol dive deep into the shock U.S. intervention in Venezuela, dissecting its implications, historical parallels, the motivations (and vanity) of Donald Trump, and the political reactions from both Democrats and Republicans. They discuss the foreign policy blunders, the strategic vacuum in Trump’s post-coup plan, regional backlash, media and online misinformation, domestic politics, and broader dangers of a Trump second term. The episode combines detailed analysis with candid, sometimes profane, critiques of U.S. policy and political cowardice, blending serious warnings with Bulwark’s trademark wit.

Key Topics & Segments

1. Venezuela Coup: The "Insane" U.S. Intervention

(Starts ~02:00)

• Tim Miller recounts the surprise over the U.S. orchestrating a coup against Venezuela's Maduro, reflecting on his "Monroe Doctrine" prediction from the previous year.
  • “There's this massive diaspora out of Venezuela for people fleeing him, including people that then we kidnapped and sent to foreign prisons.” (03:41)
• Emphasizes that while Maduro is undeniably a brutal dictator, the intervention does nothing to improve the lives of Venezuelans or serve clear U.S. interests; it’s driven by Trump's ego and political optics.
  • “This is all a big ego, megalomaniacal plot for Donald Trump… no plan for making life better for the Venezuelan people. There's no clear interest for the United States to do this imminently. This is not an effort to deal with that at all.” (04:17)

2. Kristol’s Historical Perspective & "Throat Clearing"

(Starts ~06:00)

• Bill Kristol agrees with Miller: there’s reason to be glad about Maduro’s departure, given his illegitimacy, but that doesn’t mean diving into illegal, leaderless regime-change.
  • “Being legitimately happy that Maduro is gone... Doesn't mean you automatically go in and depose him, obviously.” (06:02)
• Kristol praises the technical skill of the U.S. military/intelligence operation but is deeply alarmed by Trump's post-coup rhetoric and total lack of a transition plan.
  • “A different US president could have made a speech... that would have led someone like me... to be at least hopeful... What Trump said at 11am was really appalling.” (07:36)

3. What Went Wrong: Vanity, Oil, and Absurd Rationales

(07:45)

• Trump’s motivations: Driven by personal vendettas (e.g., anger at not being thanked for a Peace Prize), not by strategic necessity.
  • “To turn something that could be at least a hopefully okay thing... into something very hard to see how this doesn't end badly.”
• The oil rationale is ridiculed: U.S. oil production is booming, and Venezuela’s broken infrastructure/unstable politics make it a laughable target.
  • “You're going to go to Venezuela when there is an uncertain political situation, when there are rebel groups in the hills outside Caracas, and you're going to go take this old equipment... It's totally crazy.” (11:33)

4. Democratic Weakness and Messaging

(15:03)

• Critique of Democrats who reflexively oppose anything Trump does, as well as those anonymously sniping in the press about "weakness."
  • Memorable Quote: Seth Moulton (D-MA) on CNN: “This is insane. What the hell are we doing?... Invading, occupying, running Venezuela does not solve any of [America’s problems].” (15:03)
• Kristol urges a clear stance: either back the action if you believe in it, or forthrightly oppose it—but stop the anonymous hand-wringing.
  • “Speak your mind. Let the chips fall where they may... Drives me crazy that they do this.” (17:31)

5. Historical Comparisons: Panama 1989

(21:43)

• Kristol details the Noriega/Panama precedent:
  • Context: Cold War’s end, special U.S. interests, international support, troop deployments, and ultimately stable democracy—a scenario not paralleling Venezuela today.
  • “Panama was kind of special... It worked out okay. And it's not a good precedent for going into [Venezuela], a country of 30 million...” (24:38)
• Neighboring countries: Trump officials’ ignorance and regional backlash (Colombia, Mexico, Cuba), which could backfire spectacularly.
  • “You can't tell me that anybody except Marco knows that Guyana borders Venezuela. These people have no idea what they're doing.” (25:01)

6. Regional and International Repercussions

(28:43)

• Trump’s bullish declarations about broader intervention (Colombia, Mexico, even Greenland) provoke regional/nationalistic pushback and could strengthen left-wing leaders.
  • “Mexican and Colombian left wing presidents are being strengthened massively by this. Now they have the American enemy.” (27:42)
• Further, there’s real risk of pushing former allies (Colombia) into China’s orbit, totally undermining stated U.S. goals.

7. No Coherent Plan for Venezuela

(32:20)

• Even Trump’s former Venezuela envoy, Elliott Abrams, slams the operation:
  • “[The] worst thing we could do... is to make some kind of deal with the regime's remnants and leave the regime in place, except for maybe a change on oil policy.” (from Abrams on CNN, paraphrased at 32:20)
• U.S. has bizarrely cut ties with the legitimate opposition (Machado), possibly because she accepted a Nobel Peace Prize not bestowed by Trump.
• “Turning on Machado... it makes it even more infuriating... that he's just thrown that all away and now has us on a path that I think really is bad for the region, but really bad for us as a country.” (35:45)

8. Alarm about 2026–2028: Trump’s Next Moves

(37:30)

• Miller and Kristol (darkly) muse about Trump’s unpredictable, increasingly unhinged second term.
  • “It's just hard to know what is going to be happening in the addled brain of an 82 year old man... he could buy some crazy conspiracy theory and that he could do crazy shit. Trying to hang on to power...” (36:08)
• Kristol warns Trump’s talk of ‘stolen elections’ is a direct threat to 2028’s legitimacy:
  • “He cited his own stealing of the 2020 election in the context of why Maduro had to go... That’s a little ominous, isn't it, that he thinks we should go into overturned stolen elections.” (37:30)

9. Conspiracy Theories, Disinformation, and Insider Profiteering

(44:02)

• The online narrative is dominated by deepfake videos, manipulated social media, and even betting-market “insider trading” ahead of the coup.
  • “There's just a ton of fake stuff out there with huge, massive numbers of views and retweets… tons of insider criming happening right now.” (44:02)
• Trump’s reasoning may also be influenced by lingering conspiracies targeting Venezuela for supposed 2020 “election theft.”
  • Replay of Sidney Powell's 2020 Fox News appearance, falsely linking Dominion Voting and Venezuela. (41:48)

10. Domestic Political Fallout and Democratic Leadership

(46:04)

• Brief aside on Tim Walz stepping down as Minnesota governor, criticism of Democratic bandwagoning for national figures.
• Mark Kelly—military rank stripped as reprisal for criticizing the Trump administration. Concerns about military intimidation tactics.

11. Comic Relief & Symbols of Authoritarian Vanity

(56:46 – 59:00)

• J.D. Vance lampooned for faux-nationalist, "tough guy" rationalizations of the coup.
• Discussion of the construction of a U.S. “Triumphal Arch” in D.C. as a symbol of Trump’s narcissism, comparing it to North Korea’s own arch.
  • “It's up there. And they have little... I assume, they parade through it, you know, so that's really great that we in North Korea are adopting this sort of stupidest, most, I don't know, grandiose sort of imperial symbolism...” (58:05)

12. Local Politics: New York’s "Warmth of Collectivism"

(59:20 – 64:03)

• Miller playfully critiques NYC’s new mayor’s rhetoric and the impracticalities of “warmth of collectivism.”
• Both hosts reflect on real-world frigid urban reality vs. progressive wishful-thinking.

Notable Quotes

• Tim Miller: “This is insane. What we're doing is insane. It doesn't do anything to help the Venezuelan people or our interests in any clear way. It's all a big ego, megalomaniacal plot...” (04:17)
• Bill Kristol: “A different US president could have made a speech... that would have led someone like me... to be at least hopeful... What Trump said at 11am was really appalling.” (07:36)
• Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA): “What the hell are we doing?... Invading, occupying, running Venezuela does not solve any of them.” (15:04)
• Bill Kristol: “The whole oil thing is so wildly overstated. I don't even know how Trump got himself convinced of this. It's a tiny part of the oil market... the odds are now greater that there'll be refugee outflows in Venezuela... than refugees being able to go back to that country.” (09:30)
• Tim Miller: “Speak your mind. Let the chips fall where they may... Drives me crazy that they do this.” (17:31)
• Bill Kristol: “You can't tell me that anybody except Marco knows that Guyana borders Venezuela. These people have no idea what they're doing.” (25:01)
• Bill Kristol: “It's not a good precedent for going into a country of 30 million that's much further away and is a big country with other neighbors who aren't happy that we're going in...” (24:38)
• Tim Miller: “It is very bad to have Donald Trump as our president. I want you to think about that, Tim, because I know you've been a little wavering on that.” (35:46)

Segment Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic | | --------- | ----- | | 02:00–06:00 | Venezuela coup overview; strategic vacuum | | 06:00–09:30 | Kristol's analysis; military operation, Trump’s disastrous speech | | 09:30–15:00 | Oil rationale and lack of plan; sponsorship break | | 15:03–19:02 | Democrats’ messaging, Seth Moulton’s blunt critique | | 21:43–25:01 | Historical comparison to Panama 1989 | | 25:01–28:43 | Stupidity of Trump team; ignorance on regional realities | | 28:43–32:20 | Neighbor backlash, possible regional realignment | | 32:20–35:45 | No plan: Elliott Abrams dissents; opposition abandoned | | 35:46–41:46 | Fears for 2026-2028, unpredictability of Trump | | 41:48–44:02 | Venezuela 2020 conspiracies, Sidney Powell flashback | | 44:02–46:04 | Social media disinformation, betting market scandal | | 46:04–49:46 | Domestic politics: Walz exit, Democratic dynamics | | 49:46–56:46 | Mark Kelly’s censure, Hegseth, JD Vance, and D.C.’s arch | | 56:46–59:20 | Mocking JD Vance, symbolism of Trump’s “Triumphal Arch” | | 59:20–64:03 | NYC mayor’s rhetoric, “warmth of collectivism”, closing banter |

Overall Tone

The tone is frank, irreverent, sometimes exasperated, but always reality-based. Miller and Kristol blend deep concern for democratic norms and Western interests with ridicule for Trump’s narcissism and the dysfunction of the broader political-media ecosystem. The episode closes with musings on language, city life, and the creeping normalcy of what once seemed unimaginable in U.S. policy and politics.

Summary prepared for listeners new to the episode; non-content sections (ads, outros) omitted.