The Bulwark Podcast

Guest: Bill Kristol

Episode: Bill Kristol: A Weekend of Tragedy
Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Featured Guest: Bill Kristol
Main Themes: Public tragedies, America’s state of violence, antisemitism, political landscape, and fractures within the MAGA movement.

Overview of the Episode

This emotional and deeply reflective episode centers on a weekend marked by profound tragedy: the murders of Rob and Michelle Reiner, gun violence at Brown University, a deadly Hanukkah shooting in Australia, and ongoing challenges to liberal democracy. Tim Miller and Bill Kristol analyze the political response to these events, discuss the normalization of violence in American society, and examine shifts in the Republican party and upcoming electoral strategies. Throughout, the hosts grapple with grief, outrage, and the persistent consequences of the Trump era, while searching for hope and renewed political engagement.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Murder of Rob and Michelle Reiner

[03:00–08:39]

The episode opens with tributes to Rob Reiner, highlighting his activism, career, humor, and humanity.
Bill Kristol recounts being directed by Reiner in a 2020 “Billy Crystal/Bill Kristol” campaign ad for Joe Biden, reflecting on Reiner’s kindness and deft direction:

“I was just touched by his kind of humanity in doing it...very pleasant. I mean, it wasn’t one of these prima donnas.” (Kristol, 05:03)
Tim Miller shares personal memories and notes Michelle Reiner’s activism, particularly around the Prop 8 gay marriage Supreme Court challenge.
The brutality of the murder (stabbed in their home, allegedly by their son) is recounted with shock.
Tim reads Donald Trump’s inflammatory social media response to the killings, calling it “pretty grotesque” while quipping:

“You do want to live your life in a way that Donald Trump sends a despicable tweet about you when you die...probably a sign of a life well lived...” (Miller, 08:17)
The hosts express pain and revulsion at the politicized response and escalating coarseness in public discourse:

“So repulsive...this is a pretty low low, right?” (Kristol, 08:39)

2. Gun Violence and the American Condition

[09:12–18:35]

Discussion shifts to recent shootings (Brown University, Bondi Beach in Australia), with Kristol noting the sense of normalized tragedy:

“It’s kind of a dark part about living in America right now that there’s like…an internal clock...‘it’s been three weeks since there’s been a political shooting, I wonder if there’s something coming up again.’ That’s a crazy way to live.” (Miller, 28:17)
Multiple students at Brown had previously survived other shootings—a stark illustration of “learned helplessness.”
The frustrating passivity around guns is lamented:

“It’s crazy…the gun issue is one that to just give up on it, and just accept or live in a world where someone’s going to experience two school shootings in their life, is I just think is madness.” (Miller, 14:37)
Both hosts acknowledge their political evolution on guns, with Kristol noting:

“I was always slightly uncomfortable with the Republican orthodoxy...but now...the whole world has become passive...nothing could be done...” (Kristol, 17:32)
Comparison is made with Australia’s stricter gun laws; even a rare mass shooting is a national shock, in contrast to the U.S.
The Bondi Beach shooting’s intersection with antisemitism is addressed, especially with the murder of an elderly Ukrainian Holocaust survivor celebrating Hanukkah.

3. Antisemitism & Conspiracy Theories in the Social Media Age

[20:06–26:44]

Tim Miller and Bill Kristol discuss the global rise in antisemitism and the immediate proliferation of conspiracy theories online after tragedies, even among mainstream and prominent personalities:

“Conspiracies sprout up immediately that this is an inside job...Israel is a false flag...Tucker Carlson’s brother is sharing this.” (Miller, 23:04)
Kristol highlights the exacerbating effect of algorithms:

“The algorithm leads you to the next thing and the next thing...one minute you’re worried Israel went too far in Gaza, and five steps later you’re reading Holocaust denial stuff.” (Kristol, 24:22)
The hosts express deep concern that the gravest forms of hate and misinformation escalate so rapidly online, and lament that social media amplifies and normalizes extremist narratives.

4. The MAGA Movement’s Fractures & Trump’s Waning Power

[28:18–38:59]

The conversation turns to politics: evidence (polls, anecdotes) suggesting MAGA Republican identity is declining, and Trump’s grip seems to be weakening, even among allies.
Citing a recent gathering in Indiana, Kristol remarks on significant Republican state legislators defying hardline MAGA redistricting:

“A majority of the Republican state senate...just didn’t want to be bullied.” (Kristol, 33:17)
Both hosts speculate about Trump’s endurance—whether age and defeat might sap his drive to “fight, fight, fight.”

“As he starts to take defeats, you do wonder if an 81-year-old man has the heart to actually fight...maybe the old man decides he doesn’t have the fight in him to go the whole hog.” (Miller, 35:29)
They explore the possibility that GOP officials, while complicit so far, may now be gradually less willing to support Trump’s most egregious actions if they sense the tide turning.

“I guess I do wonder whether his…abnormality is finally gone…as to offend his own supporters somewhat.” (Kristol, 37:47)

5. Policy Realities in Red America & Democratic Electoral Strategy

[41:57–46:25]

Discussion on how Trump-era budget cuts, tariffs, and lost public services (e.g., rural hospitals, public lands) are genuinely hurting red-state communities.

“There are people individually who are now facing much higher [Obamacare] premiums, but also whole communities are looking at the possibility of not having a hospital within 50 miles…” (Kristol, 42:44)
The hosts urge Democrats to invest in winnable heartland states (Iowa, Kansas), observing that real pain might open political opportunities:

“It shouldn’t be crazy for the Democrats to be thinking about winning in Iowa.” (Miller, 45:46)

6. Looking Ahead: 2028 & the Future of the Democratic Party

[46:25–49:25]

Kristol flatly dismisses the notion of a Kamala Harris presidential run in 2028, despite speculation:

“No way. No way shouldn’t happen and I can’t believe it will happen.” (Kristol, 47:39)
He and Miller agree that the party faces pressure for a generational shift, possibly to new faces like Pete Buttigieg, though the “anti-establishment” mood may affect even recent candidates.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Rob Reiner:

"I was just touched by his kind of humanity in doing it. And he did it, of course, as a volunteer thing, and he was very pleasant. I mean, it wasn't one of these prima donnas...I was very fond of him and, of course, very saddened by the horrible murder of him and his wife."
— Bill Kristol, 05:03
On American resignation to violence:

“We do have this kind of internal clock of like...that's a crazy way to live. Right. Where it's like, you know, it's been three weeks since there's been a political shooting. I wonder if there's something coming up again.”
— Tim Miller, 28:17
On gun reform inaction:

“It’s crazy...the gun issue is one that to just give up on it...and just accept or live in a world where someone's going to experience two school shootings in their life is...madness.”
— Tim Miller, 14:37
On the impact of online extremism:

“The algorithm leads you to the next thing and the next thing...and five steps later, you're reading Holocaust denial stuff. People do get sucked into it.”
— Bill Kristol, 24:22
On internal Republican shifts:

“A majority of the Republican state senate...just didn’t want to be bullied…That’s real elections, not just a poll or a question.”
— Bill Kristol, 33:16
On Trump losing steam:

“Maybe the old man decides he doesn't have the fight in him to go the whole hog and there'll still be a lot of other damaging things done. But anyway, that's my very caveated Pollyanna hopefulness right now.”
— Tim Miller, 35:29
On Democratic prospects in “red” states:

“Look, the math, the economic math is also, it is just noticeably worse in those states. Like you just look at the data in Iowa and you kind of compare it to states that have more diverse economies and it's just like the numbers just aren't as good.”
— Tim Miller, 44:25

Important Timestamps

| Time (MM:SS) | Topic / Event | |--------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:00–08:39 | Rob and Michelle Reiner remembrance, Trump’s response, and reflections on public decency. | | 09:12–18:35 | Brown University shooting, normalization and passivity on gun violence in America. | | 20:06–26:44 | Antisemitism, Hanukkah shooting in Australia, and online conspiracy theory proliferation. | | 28:18–38:59 | MAGA movement’s declining strength, political splits, speculation on Trump’s stamina, Indiana Republican defection. | | 41:57–46:25 | Effects of policy in red states, opportunity for Democratic electoral inroads. | | 46:25–49:25 | Kamala Harris’s 2028 prospects, generational shifts in the Democratic Party. |

Tone and Takeaways

A somber, occasionally hopeful, but unsparing discussion about the dire state of both American political discourse and public safety. The episode repeatedly confronts despair—about violence, democratic erosion, hate, and polarization—while also searching for signs of resilience, political realignment, and the capacity for citizens and leaders to break cycles of passivity and division.

Listeners are left with a challenge:
Will Americans accept a new, lower normal of violence and polarization—or demand something better, politically and socially?

(Ad sections, mailbag, and sponsor material omitted for clarity.)

The Bulwark Podcast

Guest: Bill Kristol

Overview of the Episode

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Murder of Rob and Michelle Reiner

[03:00–08:39]

The episode opens with tributes to Rob Reiner, highlighting his activism, career, humor, and humanity.
Bill Kristol recounts being directed by Reiner in a 2020 “Billy Crystal/Bill Kristol” campaign ad for Joe Biden, reflecting on Reiner’s kindness and deft direction:

“I was just touched by his kind of humanity in doing it...very pleasant. I mean, it wasn’t one of these prima donnas.” (Kristol, 05:03)
Tim Miller shares personal memories and notes Michelle Reiner’s activism, particularly around the Prop 8 gay marriage Supreme Court challenge.
The brutality of the murder (stabbed in their home, allegedly by their son) is recounted with shock.
Tim reads Donald Trump’s inflammatory social media response to the killings, calling it “pretty grotesque” while quipping:

“You do want to live your life in a way that Donald Trump sends a despicable tweet about you when you die...probably a sign of a life well lived...” (Miller, 08:17)
The hosts express pain and revulsion at the politicized response and escalating coarseness in public discourse:

“So repulsive...this is a pretty low low, right?” (Kristol, 08:39)

2. Gun Violence and the American Condition

[09:12–18:35]

Discussion shifts to recent shootings (Brown University, Bondi Beach in Australia), with Kristol noting the sense of normalized tragedy:

“It’s kind of a dark part about living in America right now that there’s like…an internal clock...‘it’s been three weeks since there’s been a political shooting, I wonder if there’s something coming up again.’ That’s a crazy way to live.” (Miller, 28:17)
Multiple students at Brown had previously survived other shootings—a stark illustration of “learned helplessness.”
The frustrating passivity around guns is lamented:

“It’s crazy…the gun issue is one that to just give up on it, and just accept or live in a world where someone’s going to experience two school shootings in their life, is I just think is madness.” (Miller, 14:37)
Both hosts acknowledge their political evolution on guns, with Kristol noting:

“I was always slightly uncomfortable with the Republican orthodoxy...but now...the whole world has become passive...nothing could be done...” (Kristol, 17:32)
Comparison is made with Australia’s stricter gun laws; even a rare mass shooting is a national shock, in contrast to the U.S.
The Bondi Beach shooting’s intersection with antisemitism is addressed, especially with the murder of an elderly Ukrainian Holocaust survivor celebrating Hanukkah.

3. Antisemitism & Conspiracy Theories in the Social Media Age

[20:06–26:44]

Tim Miller and Bill Kristol discuss the global rise in antisemitism and the immediate proliferation of conspiracy theories online after tragedies, even among mainstream and prominent personalities:

“Conspiracies sprout up immediately that this is an inside job...Israel is a false flag...Tucker Carlson’s brother is sharing this.” (Miller, 23:04)
Kristol highlights the exacerbating effect of algorithms:

“The algorithm leads you to the next thing and the next thing...one minute you’re worried Israel went too far in Gaza, and five steps later you’re reading Holocaust denial stuff.” (Kristol, 24:22)
The hosts express deep concern that the gravest forms of hate and misinformation escalate so rapidly online, and lament that social media amplifies and normalizes extremist narratives.

4. The MAGA Movement’s Fractures & Trump’s Waning Power

[28:18–38:59]

The conversation turns to politics: evidence (polls, anecdotes) suggesting MAGA Republican identity is declining, and Trump’s grip seems to be weakening, even among allies.
Citing a recent gathering in Indiana, Kristol remarks on significant Republican state legislators defying hardline MAGA redistricting:

“A majority of the Republican state senate...just didn’t want to be bullied.” (Kristol, 33:17)
Both hosts speculate about Trump’s endurance—whether age and defeat might sap his drive to “fight, fight, fight.”

“As he starts to take defeats, you do wonder if an 81-year-old man has the heart to actually fight...maybe the old man decides he doesn’t have the fight in him to go the whole hog.” (Miller, 35:29)
They explore the possibility that GOP officials, while complicit so far, may now be gradually less willing to support Trump’s most egregious actions if they sense the tide turning.

“I guess I do wonder whether his…abnormality is finally gone…as to offend his own supporters somewhat.” (Kristol, 37:47)

5. Policy Realities in Red America & Democratic Electoral Strategy

[41:57–46:25]

Discussion on how Trump-era budget cuts, tariffs, and lost public services (e.g., rural hospitals, public lands) are genuinely hurting red-state communities.

“There are people individually who are now facing much higher [Obamacare] premiums, but also whole communities are looking at the possibility of not having a hospital within 50 miles…” (Kristol, 42:44)
The hosts urge Democrats to invest in winnable heartland states (Iowa, Kansas), observing that real pain might open political opportunities:

“It shouldn’t be crazy for the Democrats to be thinking about winning in Iowa.” (Miller, 45:46)

6. Looking Ahead: 2028 & the Future of the Democratic Party

[46:25–49:25]

Kristol flatly dismisses the notion of a Kamala Harris presidential run in 2028, despite speculation:

“No way. No way shouldn’t happen and I can’t believe it will happen.” (Kristol, 47:39)
He and Miller agree that the party faces pressure for a generational shift, possibly to new faces like Pete Buttigieg, though the “anti-establishment” mood may affect even recent candidates.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Rob Reiner:

"I was just touched by his kind of humanity in doing it. And he did it, of course, as a volunteer thing, and he was very pleasant. I mean, it wasn't one of these prima donnas...I was very fond of him and, of course, very saddened by the horrible murder of him and his wife."
— Bill Kristol, 05:03
On American resignation to violence:

“We do have this kind of internal clock of like...that's a crazy way to live. Right. Where it's like, you know, it's been three weeks since there's been a political shooting. I wonder if there's something coming up again.”
— Tim Miller, 28:17
On gun reform inaction:

“It’s crazy...the gun issue is one that to just give up on it...and just accept or live in a world where someone's going to experience two school shootings in their life is...madness.”
— Tim Miller, 14:37
On the impact of online extremism:

“The algorithm leads you to the next thing and the next thing...and five steps later, you're reading Holocaust denial stuff. People do get sucked into it.”
— Bill Kristol, 24:22
On internal Republican shifts:

“A majority of the Republican state senate...just didn’t want to be bullied…That’s real elections, not just a poll or a question.”
— Bill Kristol, 33:16
On Trump losing steam:

“Maybe the old man decides he doesn't have the fight in him to go the whole hog and there'll still be a lot of other damaging things done. But anyway, that's my very caveated Pollyanna hopefulness right now.”
— Tim Miller, 35:29
On Democratic prospects in “red” states:

“Look, the math, the economic math is also, it is just noticeably worse in those states. Like you just look at the data in Iowa and you kind of compare it to states that have more diverse economies and it's just like the numbers just aren't as good.”
— Tim Miller, 44:25

Important Timestamps

Tone and Takeaways

Listeners are left with a challenge:
Will Americans accept a new, lower normal of violence and polarization—or demand something better, politically and socially?

(Ad sections, mailbag, and sponsor material omitted for clarity.)

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Bill Kristol: A Weekend of Tragedy

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Summary

The Bulwark Podcast

Guest: Bill Kristol

Overview of the Episode

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Murder of Rob and Michelle Reiner

2. Gun Violence and the American Condition

3. Antisemitism & Conspiracy Theories in the Social Media Age

4. The MAGA Movement’s Fractures & Trump’s Waning Power

5. Policy Realities in Red America & Democratic Electoral Strategy

6. Looking Ahead: 2028 & the Future of the Democratic Party

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Important Timestamps

Tone and Takeaways

Summary

The Bulwark Podcast

Guest: Bill Kristol

Overview of the Episode

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Murder of Rob and Michelle Reiner

2. Gun Violence and the American Condition

3. Antisemitism & Conspiracy Theories in the Social Media Age

4. The MAGA Movement’s Fractures & Trump’s Waning Power

5. Policy Realities in Red America & Democratic Electoral Strategy

6. Looking Ahead: 2028 & the Future of the Democratic Party

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Important Timestamps

Tone and Takeaways