The Bulwark Podcast: "Bill Kristol and Michael Weiss: Catastrophic Success" (Released December 9, 2024)

Hosts Tim Miller and Bill Kristol engage with guest Michael Weiss to dissect pivotal political developments, focusing on Donald Trump's recent actions, White House appointments, the sentiments within the Democratic base, and the seismic shifts in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime.

1. Donald Trump's Meet the Press Interview and January 6th Committee Remarks

Tim Miller initiates the discussion by referencing Donald Trump's extensive interview with Meet the Press. A significant point of contention arises from Trump's assertion that members of the January 6th committee "should go to jail."

• [01:05] Tim Miller: Highlights the gravity of Trump's statement regarding the committee members.

• [01:14] Bill Kristol: Questions the legal foundation of such claims, emphasizing the necessity of specific citations from statutes. He states, "Trump seems to get to say. I wouldn't get to say that."

• [03:30] Bill Kristol: Expresses strong opposition to preemptive pardons, advocating instead for supporting individuals who are unfairly targeted. He asserts, "I'm firmly against the preemptive pardons, certainly against a very broad swath of them."

Liz Cheney's Response:

• [02:48] Tim Miller: Summarizes Liz Cheney's repudiation of Trump's comments, labeling them as assaults on the rule of law and the republic's foundation.

• [03:30] Bill Kristol: Supports Cheney's stance, urging transparency and accountability by challenging Trump to specify the crimes committed by committee members.

2. Executive Orders and Policy Priorities

The conversation shifts to Trump's proposed executive actions and legislative priorities.

• Pardons for January 6th Prisoners:

  • [07:09] Tim Miller: Notes Trump's intention to pardon January 6th inmates on an individual basis, though without specific criteria.

• Revocation of Birthright Citizenship:

  • [07:09] Tim Miller: Mentions Trump's suggestion to end birthright citizenship via executive order, a move deemed unconstitutional.

  • [10:48] Tim Miller: Observes that Senator Lindsey Graham supports this initiative, stating, "President Trump is right to end birthright citizenship by executive order on day one."

• Trump Tax Cuts Extension:

  • [09:25] Tim Miller: Emphasizes Trump's focus on extending his previous tax cuts over other issues like tariffs, expressing skepticism about its legislative feasibility.

  • [10:48] Bill Kristol: Analyzes the complexities of passing the tax extension through a narrowly divided Congress, noting, "It is not going to be very easy to get that done quickly."

3. White House Appointments and Nomination Challenges

The episode delves into recent White House appointments, raising concerns about their qualifications and ideological leanings.

• Michael Anton as Director of Policy Planning:

  • [12:36] Tim Miller: Highlights Anton's controversial past, including his 2016 essay advocating for action against Hillary Clinton.

  • [13:11] Tim Miller: Expresses disapproval of Anton's involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 election, referring to it as orchestrating a "coup."

  • [14:10] Bill Kristol: Provides background on Anton's political evolution and expresses reservations about his suitability, stating, "He was very offended when I... criticized his Flight 93 essay."

• Alina Haba as Counselor to the President:

  • [18:24] Tim Miller: Critiques Haba's limited legal experience, questioning her capacity to serve in such a pivotal role.

  • [19:37] Bill Kristol: Presumes Haba's role will be primarily PR-focused, akin to Kellyanne Conway's tenure, but acknowledges the potential for substantive influence.

4. Democratic Nihilism and Voter Sentiment

Tim Miller raises concerns about a growing sense of nihilism among Democrats, paralleling post-2012 Republican sentiments.

• [26:19] Tim Miller: Describes a "fuck it" mindset among Democrats, worried that Trump's potential second win could render their values meaningless.

• [27:59] Bill Kristol: Agrees that initial demoralization is natural but optimistic that it will recede, citing examples of resilience. He recounts a friend overcoming demoralization by engaging with literature, stating, "He's now back in the fight."

• [31:04] Tim Miller: Emphasizes the importance of resisting nihilistic tendencies, urging listeners to uphold valuable norms and not succumb to despair.

5. Syria's Geopolitical Shifts and the Fall of Assad

Michael Weiss joins the conversation to provide an in-depth analysis of the recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, termed a "catastrophic success."

• Overview of Assad's Downfall:

  • [33:04] Michael Weiss: Describes the swift and surprising fall of Assad, facilitated by Turkish-backed rebels and a lack of Russian intervention.

  • [37:15] Tim Miller: Asks about the broader implications, questioning whether Assad could have sustained power with Russian support.

• Regional Implications:

  • [37:17] Michael Weiss: Explains that Turkey's strategic interests and the weakening of Russian and Iranian influence contributed to Assad's downfall. He states, "This was not a military fight for Damascus. Damascus was abandoned."

  • [42:25] Tim Miller: Probes the potential governance models Syria might adopt post-Assad, referencing Erdogan and Taliban parallels.

  • [44:56] Michael Weiss: Highlights Turkey's significant role in shaping the post-Assad landscape, noting their deep involvement with HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and the complexities of US-Turkey relations. He remarks, "Turkey is going to have a huge say in this."

• Future Challenges and Opportunities:

  • [49:37] Michael Weiss: Expresses concern over the potential rise of transnational jihadism and the need for the US to engage strategically in shaping Syria's future.

  • [51:52] Tim Miller: Brings attention to the plight of American hostage Austin Tice, underscoring ongoing American interests in Syria.

6. Closing Remarks and Final Thoughts

• [54:25] Tim Miller: Concludes with reflections on Assad's depraved regime and the significance of his downfall, emphasizing the horrific human rights abuses inflicted under his rule.

• [54:50] Closing: Tim Miller thanks Michael Weiss for his insights and previews upcoming discussions on foreign policy, anticipating continued analysis in the New Year.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Bill Kristol on Preemptive Pardons:

  • "[03:30] ... I'm firmly against the preemptive pardons, certainly against a very broad swath of them."

• Tim Miller on Democratic Nihilism:

  • "[27:59] ... there is a way to do that while still fighting aggressively, pushing back on him, et cetera."

• Michael Weiss on Assad's Fall:

  • "[37:17] ... Turkey is going to have a huge say in this. They've been dealing with HTS for seven, eight years."

• Bill Kristol on Trump's Nominees:

  • "[14:10] ... in a way the Trump administration will be facing in January 20, in Europe, in the Middle East, in Asia, I mean, it's really appalling."

Conclusion

This episode of The Bulwark Podcast offers a comprehensive examination of Donald Trump's recent maneuvers, the complexities surrounding White House appointments, the emotional landscape within the Democratic base, and the transformative events unfolding in Syria. Hosts and guests provide critical insights into the challenges facing liberal democracy, the strategic geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, and the imperative for maintaining democratic resilience in tumultuous times.