The Bulwark Podcast — Bill Kristol: Are the Winds Finally Shifting?
Date: April 13, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell (sitting in for Tim Miller)
Guest: Bill Kristol
Episode Overview
This episode examines the surprising defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, dissecting its potential as a bellwether for global populist and authoritarian movements—especially in relation to American politics and the Trumpist right. Sarah Longwell and Bill Kristol dig deep into what Orbán’s loss means for the fate of “illiberal democracy,” analyze the political lessons for American opposition movements, and explore shifting political winds both abroad and at home.
Main Topics & Key Insights
1. Hungary: Orbán’s Shock Defeat (02:00–13:50)
- Orbán as Model for Authoritarian Right: Orbán’s regime (since 2010) provided a playbook for global and American illiberal populists—embracing autocracy, controlling media, and aligning with Putin.
- Election Takeaways: The opposition, led by Péter Magyar (center-right, ex-Orbánist), decisively defeated Orbán’s Fidesz, even after significant gerrymandering, media domination, and institutional suppression.
- Significance for the U.S.: The American right has imported lessons from Hungary—CPAC was hosted there, and J.D. Vance and other MAGA figures have openly aligned with Orbán, making his defeat symbolically pivotal for U.S. politics.
Quote [02:48], Bill Kristol:
"We're living in a new world... Orban's been the model of what he called illiberal democracy... a calling card for authoritarians around the world, including here, MAGA for Trump world, Bannon, people like that.... The fact that the Hungarian people were able to do what they did is really inspiring."
2. Who Is Péter Magyar? Not a Lefty (06:00–10:37)
- Not a Simple Left-vs-Right Story: Magyar was once a member of Orbán’s party; his victory was thanks to leading a broad-based movement, not a standard liberal coalition.
- Parallels to U.S. Never Trumpers: Magyar is likened to figures like Liz Cheney or Adam Kinzinger: principled breakaways from a right-wing authoritarian party.
- Lesson on Coalition-Building: The Hungarian left agreed to back Magyar, prioritizing democracy over programmatic purity—an important lesson for anti-Trump forces in the U.S.
Quote [06:51], Bill Kristol:
"It would be as if the entire Democratic Party decided to support Liz Cheney or a more outspoken Mike Pence... Magyar is a very talented politician, clearly. And that's also a reminder that just pure talent... and a vision of building a movement, not just a party, really matters."
3. Tactics of Victory: Shoe-Leather and Social Movements
- Overcoming Media Capture: With opposition media suppressed, Magyar traveled intensively to rural areas and met people directly.
- Message Emphasis: Ran on “healthcare, affordability, and education”—addressing everyday grievances rather than culture war issues.
- Contrast With U.S. Landscape: America still has a relatively freer press, but worrying trends toward media capture (e.g., pro-Trump allies buying up outlets) echo Hungarian autocratic efforts.
Quote [10:37], Sarah Longwell:
“He did it like hand-to-hand combat. He went everywhere... If it really depends on it, here's what I'm going to do. It's shoe leather, it's going, it's meeting people, it's making the explanation. That level of leadership is really something.”
4. Global Winds Shift: The Illiberal Backlash (13:59–24:45)
- International Implications: Orban’s loss is a warning shot to global authoritarians and a hopeful sign for democracy advocates internationally.
- Role of Economic Discontent: Anti-incumbent energy, rooted in post-Covid economic stagnation and corruption, is fueling backlash against strongman rule—even among some one-time supporters.
- Hope for U.S. Opposition?: The table may be set for a similar American turning point against Trumpist politics, if opponents can build broad coalitions and articulate a credible renewal.
Quote [21:08], Sarah Longwell:
“It gave me hope. What I like about it for America is to see what it means to have people who once voted for Orban... turn on him aggressively... There’s this sense in America that we are so polarized... but history moves on, right? These guys become the old guys.”
5. Trump, Vance, and Foreign Policy Chaos (25:30–38:49)
- J.D. Vance’s Fiascos: Vance’s European campaigning for Orbán failed; his involvement in Trump’s chaotic foreign policy (Iran crisis, Strait of Hormuz closure) has become a political liability, making him look hapless for 2028 aspirations.
- Rubio vs. Vance Dynamic: Trump’s management of would-be 2028 successors is seen as a mix of mind games and strategic humiliation.
- Trump’s Instability: Growing “decompensation”—including bizarre late-night social posts (e.g., Trump-as-Jesus)—sparks talk of the 25th Amendment and cabinet action as public concern grows.
Quote [34:31], Sarah Longwell:
“When gas is seven bucks, remember that picture of Trump at the UFC fight with Marco Rubio... People do not tolerate the price increases on gas... Magyar... ran on health care, affordability and education...”
Quote [31:53], Sarah Longwell:
“Why is the President of the United States, who is in the middle of this negotiation for this insane war that he started without Congress... at a UFC fight?”
6. Political Fallout: Democratic and Republican Contrasts (50:50–57:36)
- Democrats Cleaning House: Eric Swalwell’s sexual assault allegations led to rapid Democratic abandonment, contrasting sharply with persistent GOP tolerance or dismissal of similar offenses among their own (e.g., Trump, Gonzalez, Mills).
- Republican Denials & Hypocrisy: Despite Trump’s long public record of sexual misconduct, Republican defense is reflexive and dismissive.
Quote [54:12], Sarah Longwell:
“It speaks well of Democrats that when this kind of stuff comes out, everybody abandoned him... In contrast to how Republicans have treated similar allegations...”
7. Lessons for U.S. Political Renewal (57:36–59:58)
- Coalition Over Ideology: Real change demands broad, fervent coalitions willing to sideline partisan disagreements for the survival of liberal democracy.
- Leadership & Messaging: Success requires not just anti-incumbent sentiment but positive, practical vision—addressing bread-and-butter issues and articulating hope for a better future, as Magyar did in Hungary.
Quote [59:43], Bill Kristol:
“Having the wind at our backs... Gotta take advantage of it though, right?... That would be the worst possible lesson to take from this last weekend.”
Memorable/Revealing Moments & Quotes
- On the Hungarian Election as Inspiration:
“We now have to try to imitate what the Hungarian people have done.” (05:21, Bill Kristol) - On Trump’s Declining Support:
“The Orban drop also came late... As the momentum built, which is another hopeful sign perhaps of 2026 or 2028...” (24:48, Bill Kristol) - On Trump’s Social Media Rants:
“The Pope one is especially deranged. Why is he so mad at our American Pope?” (40:50, Sarah Longwell) - On 2028 and the Shape of Opposition:
“I think the wind is at our backs a little bit. The backs of those of us who believe in liberal democracy. And it’s a good day, it’s a good day for liberal democracy today.” (58:03, Sarah Longwell)
Timestamps of Note
- 02:48 – Bill Kristol on the significance of Hungary’s election
- 06:51 – Kristol explains Magyar as a “Never Trumper”-type
- 10:37 – Sarah Longwell discusses Magyar’s campaign tactics
- 13:59 – Trumpists’ defeat in Hungary; J.D. Vance’s embarrassing role
- 21:08 – Sarah Longwell on American lessons from Hungary’s opposition
- 31:53 – Trump’s instability and twisted priorities (“Trump as Jesus”)
- 40:50 – Trump’s public feud with the Pope
- 50:50 – Swalwell scandal and contrasts in party accountability
- 57:36 – The case for fervent, pragmatic reform coalitions
The Bulwark Tone & Style
The conversation is brisk, candid, sometimes irreverent, and animated by both urgency and hope. Sarah Longwell and Bill Kristol draw from their own Never Trump roots, offering historical analogies, tactical lessons, and wry observations without losing sight of the daunting stakes.
Conclusion
Main lesson: The defeat of Orbán shows that determined, coalition-oriented opposition can defeat authoritarianism—even when the deck is stacked. The takeaway for the U.S.: Leadership, broad appeal, practical reform, and resilience are essential if the winds are indeed shifting away from illiberalism—seize the moment, don’t squander it.