Bill Kristol: Authoritarian Takeover

Summary

The Bulwark Podcast

Episode: Bill Kristol: Authoritarian Takeover
Date: August 18, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guests: Bill Kristol (Editor-at-Large), Eric Edelman (Former Ambassador, National Security Expert)

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Overview

This episode tackles the intensifying trend of authoritarian tactics in U.S. politics, with particular emphasis on the federal takeover of Washington D.C., threats to fair elections, and the shifting stance of the Trump administration and allies on Ukraine. Tim Miller and Bill Kristol are joined by Eric Edelman for a fast-moving and frank discussion. They dissect the failure of Democrats to meet the moment, the real-time impacts of Trump’s policies on democracy, and Europe’s reaction to recent U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The episode maintains Bulwark's signature irreverent, passionate tone throughout.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Democrats’ Messaging Failures and the D.C. Federal Takeover

(03:37 – 13:23; 15:46 – 19:38)

• Bill Kristol’s Viral Critique:
  Bill Kristol lambasts leading Democrats for downplaying the federal takeover of D.C. as a “stunt” or “distraction.”
  • [04:22] Bill Kristol: “It's a rare trifecta of intellectual failure, political stupidity and moral obtuseness.”
• Meta vs. Direct Politics:
  Tim Miller and Kristol agree that Democrats overemphasize meta commentary—opining on which issues matter—rather than fighting all fronts, like Republicans do.
  • [06:19] Tim Miller: “They say that militarizing the nation's capital is a distraction. No, it is not. It is the core of the fight we're up against.”
  • [07:03] Tim Miller: “Just talk like a normal fucking person, okay? You can talk about Epstein and Medicaid and Ukraine. Donald Trump is capable of doing this... Democrats should do [it].”
• Critique of Defensiveness:
  Eric Edelman points out Democrats’ tendency to “throat-clear” and make excuses before addressing issues directly—a political weakness.
  • [10:39] Eric Edelman: “They do a lot of throat clearing on something before addressing the issue at hand. Maybe they should begin with a direct critique...not with the three minutes of self-flagellating and self-excusing.”

Notable Moment

• [08:10] Tim Miller (on Democratic discourse): “It’s like everything’s a distraction from everything else. God forbid they should actually just address an issue, you know?”

Real-World Impact

• The federal “takeover” is visible and chilling—example: a viral video of unidentified federal officers tasing a moped driver on 14th street, sending a message beyond law enforcement; public spaces reportedly empty out in fear.
  • [15:12] Tim Miller: “[People] bars and restaurants empty this weekend. They were saying people don’t want to go out.”

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2. Trump’s Use of Authoritarian Tactics: D.C. and Beyond

(16:25 – 19:38; 43:39 – 45:57)

• Intimidation as “Feature Not a Bug”:
  Eric Edelman suggests the pain inflicted on D.C. is intentional, not accidental, by the Trump administration, particularly targeting a blue city as a warning.
• Performative National Guard Deployments:
  Republican governors send National Guard units to D.C. despite higher crime in their own states, purely to demonstrate loyalty and amplify federal control.
  • [17:15] Eric Edelman: “It’s about Trump exerting federal power over the nation’s capital city. It’s not about any empirical dealing with crime at all.”
• Expansion Model:
  Kristol warns: these D.C. tactics could be rolled out elsewhere—Trump is normalizing masked, unaccountable federal agents, potentially applying this template to other “problem” cities.

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3. Ukraine, Russia, and Western Leadership Dynamics

(20:44 – 34:33)

• Alaska Summit Fallout:
  The Putin-Trump summit in Alaska is viewed as a disaster for Western security. Trump echoed Russian talking points, offered no pushback, and retreated from Ukraine’s position.
  • [21:45] Eric Edelman: “Putin lectured Trump. Trump didn’t push back...He’s sort of on board the Putin agenda.”
• European Leaders Step In:
  The U.S.’ supposed allies—Macron, Starmer, Merkel, and others—felt compelled to accompany Zelensky to the White House, signaling their lack of trust in Trump and the void in U.S. global leadership.
  • [30:14] Bill Kristol: “The fact that we have the Europeans flying here to beg our president to not be a surrender monkey...Hurts me as someone born in the 80s who grew up believing that America as the leader of the free world was something I had some pride in. Clearly not the leader anymore.”
• No Real Security Guarantees for Ukraine:
  Trump publicly dismisses NATO membership for Ukraine and undermines even the idea of a bilateral security guarantee as empty gestures.
  • [25:03] Eric Edelman: “Trump’s ‘no going into NATO’ undercuts what some people were taking hope from...Trump is basically ruling out any kind of serious security guarantee.”

Notable Quote

• [31:34] Tim Miller: “Trump is a coward that doesn’t like to make big decisions like this. He wants everyone to like him...that’s been the thing that has saved us...in a couple of different areas.”

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4. Election Subversion & The Authoritarian Playbook

(35:55 – 45:57)

• Trump's Open Moves Against Mail-in Ballots:
  Trump vows to “get rid of mail-in ballots” and preemptively undermines election legitimacy; he claims states are “merely an agent for the federal government” in elections, suggesting a federal takeover.
  • [35:55] Bill Kristol (quoting Trump): “The states are merely an agent for the federal government…They must do what the federal government, as represented by the President of the United States, tells them for the good of our country to do.”
  • [40:15] Eric Edelman: “That sets off huge alarm bells…turning states into agents in this area in ways that have not been the case before. And it’s very dangerous.”
• Federal Control Threats:
  Panelists worry Trump will attempt to interfere with mail-in voting, challenge and potentially throw out unfavorable results, and use “law and order” pretexts to send federal troops to polling places—especially in blue or minority-heavy areas.
  • [44:15] Tim Miller: “They use these things as pretexts and rationale to send in…federal troops, National Guard troops to guard voting places, maybe particularly in blue areas, to intimidate people from coming.”
• Tangible Risks for 2026 and 2028:
  The Republican House could refuse to seat new members from mail-in ballot states, intimidating or disenfranchising Democratic-leaning voters via extraordinary federal interventions.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [04:22] Bill Kristol: “It's a rare trifecta of intellectual failure, political stupidity and moral obtuseness.”
• [06:19] Tim Miller: “It's not a distraction. It is the core of the fight we're up against.”
• [13:23] Tim Miller: “At least fucking fight them when they're taking interior police of mass thugs to harass your fellow citizens...That is not a distraction. That is the fight that we have here in the so-called pro-democracy coalition.”
• [21:45] Eric Edelman: "Putin lectured Trump, Trump didn't push back…He’s sort of on board the Putin agenda."
• [25:03] Eric Edelman: “Trump’s ‘no going into NATO [for Ukraine]’ undercuts what some people were taking a little hope from…It’s totally fake.”
• [30:14] Bill Kristol: “The fact that we have the Europeans flying here to beg our president not to be a surrender monkey...Hurts me.”
• [35:55] Bill Kristol (quoting Trump): “The states are merely an agent for the federal government…They must do what the federal government...tells them for the good of our country to do.”
• [40:38] Bill Kristol: “I don't remember Madison...Is that in the Federalist Papers? That the states must do exactly what the federal government tells them for the good of the country?”

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Important Segment Timestamps

• [03:37 – 13:23]: Rant on Dems’ meta-commentary, need for head-on engagement
• [15:46 – 19:38]: The chilling reality of the D.C. federal “takeover”
• [20:44 – 34:33]: Dissecting the Alaska Putin-Trump summit, Europe’s response, Ukraine’s abandonment
• [35:55 – 45:57]: Trump’s attack on election integrity, executive overreach, and the template for broad authoritarian expansion

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Tone and Style

The episode is fiery and informal, marked by frustration with Democratic messaging and genuine alarm at rising authoritarian threats. The hosts blend political analysis with humor and exasperation (“just talk like a normal fucking person”), maintaining a conversational, sometimes irreverent style throughout.

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Summary Takeaway

The episode paints a darkening landscape for American democracy: escalating authoritarian maneuvers by the Trump administration; Democratic leaders who appear flat-footed; real-time clampdowns in D.C.; open threats to elections; and a grim new dynamic where allied European leaders must intervene to preserve Western values in the U.S. The advice: stop dismissing real threats as distractions, engage every fight head-on, and recognize the urgency before authoritarian “takeovers” become the American norm.

Transcript

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[Tim Miller]

Hey y', all, the Bulwark is heading on the road this fall and we're starting off in Canada. That's right, Mounties. Tim Hortons Maple syrup might have some Seagram 7 on stage. We're going to have no fear of mass military police tackling us and asking for our passports. And most importantly, we get to support our friends up north as they combat Trump's stupid trade war. I'm ready to start singing O Canada right now. I'm so excited to do it. I've got Sarah Longwell with me and Canada's favorite Sam Stein. We're going to be there in September. For those of you that aren't up for stamping the passport, I get it. You can catch me Sarah and JBL in D.C. and New York in October as well. To get first dibs on tickets, sign up to become a Bulwark plus member. You get access to a ticket presale and that's going to go live tomorrow on Tuesday. And you get all the other benefits of being a Bulwark plus member. You get the Secret podcast on Friday. How are you surviving without the Secret podcast? So come on, become a Bulwark plus member get access to the presale and.

[Bill Kristol]

You'Ll be able to come hang out.

[Tim Miller]

With us in Toronto, New York or D.C. if you aren't a member, that's okay, too. There'll be tickets available on Wednesday and.

[Bill Kristol]

More information will be [e-mail] events. It's the bulwark.com events.

[Tim Miller]

Up next, it's Monday, so we got Bill Kristol. Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. It is Monday and even though he's on vacation, we've got Editor Large Bill Kristol. He could not stay away from you guys.

[Bill Kristol]

He is at the beach and you might hear the, what did Melania call.

[Tim Miller]

It in the letter? The melodious laughter of children behind you as we talk.

[Bill Kristol]

How are you doing, Bill? Thanks for working on the weekend.

[Eric Edelman]

I'm fine, Tim. It's good to be with you. I gave up the newsletter for the week, but when Tim Miller calls, you.

[Bill Kristol]

Can'T say no, you can't get rid of me.

[Tim Miller]

Well, we've got obviously we'll spend most.

[Bill Kristol]

Of the time on what is happening with the Russia, Ukraine, Trump negotiations, Zelensky appearing at the White House today, and kind of by the time this is out, that will be happening. So always a reminder that if it's as crazy as it was last time, you can check out the Bulwark Takes feed for instant reactions.

[Tim Miller]

But before we get to Ukraine, I.

[Bill Kristol]

Want to talk about what's going on in D.C. especially, Bill.

[Tim Miller]

Every once in a while you put.

[Bill Kristol]

Something out there onto the Internet on social media. And I just, I'm getting out of my chair hooting and hollering because I agree so fervently. And so I figure that's a nice place to start. You posted this about the Democrats response to what's happening in D.C. i want.

[Tim Miller]

To congratulate leading Democrats for their insistence.

[Bill Kristol]

On saying the takeover of DC Is a, quote, stunt or a, quote, distraction.

[Tim Miller]

It's a rare trifecta of intellectual failure, political stupidity and moral obtuseness.

[Bill Kristol]

And God, could I not agree more with this. But talk about what you mean and what you're seeing from D.C. i guess.

[Eric Edelman]

I saw a couple of Democrats, one of them Senator Murphy, and it's a little unfair as you take a baby sentence out of context. Actually, your interview, very interesting podcast Friday with Hakeem Jeffries. And I don't want to criticize him by name since we shouldn't criticize someone who's kind enough to come on the podcast Just a couple of days ago. But he was a little bit in the distraction camp. I don't know. Why do these politicians just feel the need to even explain that in the. First of all, this isn't a stunt and a distraction, in my opinion. It's kind of important. And secondly, even if it were, just address the issue. I always get so annoyed when politicians are like trying to explain to voters what they should care about or not care about, because you might think it's a big deal when we deploy Federal troops to D.C. and have videos of them behaving very badly and so forth, and Trump's inventing justifications which are open ended for the future, et cetera, et cetera. But you're wrong because really what's important is the big bad bill, which just go into effect for 18 months and, you know, which already has been quite a lot of publicity. But the Democrats, that's their talking points. They were sent on, on break with their, you know, talking points about Medicaid and how could they be distracted by an actual federal takeover of our nation's capital? You know, so I was annoyed.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, the federal takeover is bad on the merits as it is. And I want to talk about that in detail, including a video that we got from 14th street that Sam Stein posted. But just on the meta conversation here about how Democrats should talk about this and how anybody really that opposes this regime should talk about this. I've just become obsessed with this. I'm going on a one man crusade. To borrow a phrase from Bill Simmons. Please, kitty, turn the TikTok camera on because I have a message for the Democrats. Please stop calling things distractions and minimizing them.

[Tim Miller]

I don't really know where this started, but it's everywhere. It's endemic. They say that militarizing the nation's capital is a distraction.

[Bill Kristol]

No, it is not.

[Tim Miller]

It is the core of the fight we're up against. They were saying the Putin summit is a distraction. No, like the liberal world order and a free Ukrainian people hang in the balance. This is not a distraction.

[Bill Kristol]

It is the fight.

[Tim Miller]

And even things that are actual distractions.

[Bill Kristol]

Like the Sydney Sweeney ad or something.

[Tim Miller]

To talk about them like that just makes you sound weird. Just like use them as opportunities to reach people and project your values. Saying that you just agree that Sydney Sweeney has good genes and think that.

[Bill Kristol]

The freaks that are trying to tear the country apart over this ad are.

[Tim Miller]

The weird ones is a much better.

[Bill Kristol]

Response than being like, this is a destruction and I want to care about Medicaid.

[Tim Miller]

It's like just talk like a normal fucking person, okay? You can talk about Epstein and Medicaid and Ukraine. Donald Trump is capable of doing this. You don't see Donald Trump out there doing meta commentary about how the Democrats are trying to distract. Like he just talks about everything. He just throws shit against the wall. That is what is happening. So that is what Democrats should do. They should fight them on everything. They should create distractions of their own. And they're not going to at least do that. They're not going to fight them on everything. At least fucking fight them when they're taking interior police of mass thugs to harass your fellow citizens in the nation's capital and an attempt to seize power. Like that is the time to fight. That is not the distraction. That is the fight that we have here in the so called pro democracy coalition. Like they're doing an authoritarian takeover of the Capitol. Like that is not a fucking distraction from Epstein. And Medicaid cuts, okay? That is the fight. So anyway, that's my rant about this. Please tell your local Democratic politician, do you know how this happened?

[Bill Kristol]

What was the genesis of this?

[Tim Miller]

Where did this come from?

[Eric Edelman]

Yeah, it's a good. Someone should go look up, you know, the uses of the word distraction, do a Google search or something. But I agree with you totally. Democrats have become sort of a meta. I like your formulation about the this is a meta discussion. You know, what we should be talking about instead of just talking about whatever's in the news and whatever issues are presented to you. But the Democrats have become kind of a meta party, wouldn't you say? I found this in talking to Democratic donors over the last five, six months. Endless discussion about what should we be talking about? Should we talk about this issue or that issue instead of just talking about the different issues? The Republicans don't fall for this much. They try a bunch of issues. Some of them fade by, you know, go by the wayside because voters aren't interested or the issue resolves itself kind of. Or they think it's a losing issue and they just kind of drop it. But they, they do address, I mean in their own crazy way and demagogic way the issues, right? And the Democrats think they can win by saying, well that's not a real issue, it's the real issue is X and say they changed the real. When we started, when the Epstein thing began and some of us, you and I were saying that it's a very big issue, it could be a big issue and a legitimate issue, that was the distraction. I Was lectured by, as you were too. Right. By many leading Democrats. Medicaid's the story, the big bad bill. We've got polls, 62% don't like the Medicaid. And then, you know, it took like three weeks and a bunch of polls showing the public was quite interested in Epstein for the Democrats to decide Epstein's issue. Then they decided DC is a distraction from Epstein.

[Bill Kristol]

Right.

[Eric Edelman]

It's like, you know, it's like everything's a distraction from everything else. God forbid they should actually just address an issue, you know?

[Tim Miller]

Yes. And also just on the Epstein thing, just as a specific example, it's actually just more effective to say, hey, Donald Trump is doing this takeover of DC while he's also engaged in a cover up of documents that expose his relationship.

[Bill Kristol]

To people running a massive child sex ring. Right.

[Tim Miller]

Like he's covering up his relationship there and I'm upset about that.

[Bill Kristol]

And we should expose those documents.

[Tim Miller]

That is a direct argument using the active voice about how this is bad that he's doing this. That's better to do than to try to be like, well, what people really should be talking about is Epstein. Make it like a media critique or like a pundit critique. Just like fucking critique the president for what he's doing. And you can critique him for two things at the same time. This stuff doesn't matter that much, but it is just, it is annoying and it contributes, I think, to the sense.

[Bill Kristol]

That the Democrats aren't actually really fighting this stuff. That's more of a academic exercise than it is a campaign doing politics.

[Eric Edelman]

Kind of a cousin to what you're talking about, I'd say, is the Democrats felt need to do a lot of throat clearing on something before addressing the issue at hand. So. Well, we are concerned about crime, Tim, and there's too much of it and we don't want to look like the party that's soft on crime. So we're now gonna say again that we are really concerned about the crime, but it has been going down though, still too high. Don't get me wrong. I mean, they can get to that if someone challenges them as not being, you know, tough on us being soft on crime. But maybe they should begin with a direct critique, not with the three minutes of self flagellating and self excusing before they get to discussing the actual issue at hand.

[Bill Kristol]

You know, I'll follow my own advice here and we'll get to the actual news. Now I need, I needed, I needed to do a 10 minutes.

[Tim Miller]

I'm imploring people to Stop with, stop with the fucking distractions. And almost always, by the way, the.

[Bill Kristol]

Distractions is my final point. That's now I'm doing a Sarah Longwell.

[Tim Miller]

And another thing, and also, also almost always the thing that they say is a dist is the thing that people.

[Bill Kristol]

Actually want to talk about.

[Tim Miller]

So maybe it's best to engage on the topics that people actually want to talk about instead of saying like, you know, we really shouldn't talk about the things that people are naturally talking about and are interested in.

[Bill Kristol]

We should talk about this other thing instead.

[Tim Miller]

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[Bill Kristol]

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[Bill Kristol]

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[Bill Kristol]

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[Bill Kristol]

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[Bill Kristol]

Gene on the actual outrage that is the DC takeover. Sam Stein posted on this, you know, on our substack on YouTube over the weekend, there was a delivery driver on 14th Street. It's about a block and a half from Le Diplomat where all the fancy Washingtonians like Bill Kristol have brunch. So, you know, not exactly in the high crime neighborhood. And the guy's taken down off of his moped, he's tased. There's just a pile on of masked unidentified federal police, interior police going after this guy. They're so insane in the way that they treat him that one of them, one of the cops gets hurt. I don't know if they're cops actually. One of the whatever they are get gets injured by another one of the masked guys because they're all so rabid. And the people around are shouting at them like, who are you? They won't say. One of them shouts back, liberals have ruined the country. Which is really great behavior that you want from your neutral federal law enforcement. D.C. police said it was not them. The White House put out a statement this morning about it. The moped driver was an illegal alien criminal from Venezuela with suspected gang affiliation and order of removal from the country. Upon his arrest, the illegal alien criminal resisted and a law enforcement officer suffered a concussion. So I just doing the same shit they did with the people they sent to El Salvador. It's like, okay, maybe, I don't know, but could you just, you know, do normal police work, tell us who you.

[Tim Miller]

Are and who that is and what they did. And there's been some negative impacts of the D.C. economy.

[Bill Kristol]

People bars and restaurants empty this weekend. They were saying people don't want to go out. So I don't know. Bill, do you have any additional thoughts about what we're seeing in dc?

[Eric Edelman]

Yeah, I think the negative impact of the DC economy is probably a feature, not a bug. Right. They're not unhappy to have a blue city get a little bit of pain and suffering from this, from this effort. No, it's really striking. One other sort of example again, or adjacent to what you're talking about is so governors of Republican states have been sending in a couple of hundred of their National Guard people to deal with this crime wave in D.C. to the states from which they're sending the National Guard. I think Ohio, West Virginia. I think I noticed this. But Philip Bump actually did the research. I just guessed it. Of course they have cities with higher crime rates than D.C. and if they have such a problem with violent crime, they shouldn't probably do it either in their own state because they should just fund their police departments better or have better law and order policies. But anyway, they've got to performatively send 200 National Guard to D.C. to show they're on board with Trump's effort. Which is just really brings home how much it's about Trump exerting federal power over the nation's capital city. It's not about any empirical dealing with crime at all.

[Bill Kristol]

No, of course. And where they are in the city, like the maps of where it shows that.

[Tim Miller]

Andre in the newsletter this morning makes.

[Bill Kristol]

A good point as well, which is like to your point about this as being a feature, not a bug. They want the violence. They want the cop violence in the street, like the moped video they like. Right. Because that's what they're doing. It's an intimidation tactic. It's not a real law enforcement effort. Right. It's a marketing campaign and an authoritarian grab.

[Eric Edelman]

They sent a camera, I think along with the 2015 or 20 federal agents they sent to arrest the sandwich guy at his apartment building in Northwest D.C. after he had volunteered I think to come in and he wasn't resisting arrest, they knew he was. And no, they wanted the video of all these armed and beefed up federal agents, you know, bravely assaulting this guy in his ninth floor, one bedroom apartment, whatever, a few blocks from our office.

[Bill Kristol]

And he's, it's like low level law DOJ lawyer, you know, real, a real danger to society. I meant to, I meant to have a hoagie on hand today as like a, you know, sign of resistance here as part of my, as part of my set. I need to, need to look into that. I know that there's a difference of opinions about sandwich man around the, around the polar.

[Eric Edelman]

I'm on the pro sandwich guy. Yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

Subway needs you as anti. Anti.

[Eric Edelman]

Subway needs to name a sandwich after him and so forth, you know. And he's become a hero of the resistance.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, the sandwich.

[Eric Edelman]

I mean Patel, the FBI director Castro listed that as one of the felonies that they've arrested someone for in their grand list of 16 mostly ridiculous felony arrests. They'd made some night or two nights in D.C. with tiny actually rather small number. But then I think some judge say that's ridiculous. It's not a felony to throw a sandwich at some point.

[Bill Kristol]

Yes, correct. The Judge did say that. Yeah, the sandwich resistance, I'm a part of it.

[Tim Miller]

The last thing on this.

[Bill Kristol]

And we'll get to a little bit at the end because I talk about midterms and potentially how this relates to that as well.

[Tim Miller]

But just in addition to just the.

[Bill Kristol]

Fact that what we're seeing in D.C. is UN American and wrong. Right again. Masked unnamed agents taking out people with no due process, no individual rights, doing it to intimidate people. Now saying that they're going to continue this takeover conceivably even after, you know, they have a legal rationale for it. It's a model for the, for what they want to do in other places. Right. And like that is part of that is how this relates to the big ugly bill or whatever. Right. Like they have the funding, you know, they're going to have additional funding for this. They're looking for pretext to do it other places. And if it's not fought back against aggressively in D.C. in the way that, you know, the deportation planes, El Salvador or whatever were fought back again.

[Tim Miller]

So you can see like these people.

[Bill Kristol]

Do fold, you know, if they see resistance and if they see that it's a political loser, they will not expand this to other cities. And so it's important that it's made to be a political loser. I think that's the other reason why the distraction thing frustrates me. Like, like it needs to be taken on now because they intend to expand their remit. I take your silence for concurrence. Okay, great. Wonderful. The children behind also agree cheering. I can hear them cheering for me.

[Eric Edelman]

Totally with you. The children are pro tip. They're pro Tim. They're a pro sandwich guy to you.

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[Tim Miller]

Let's go to the summit. I want to go with what's happening today.

[Bill Kristol]

Second, let's just look back. You had Edelman on Sunday. You know, I ripped off several rants on YouTube about what we saw in Alaska. But I haven't talked to you since it happened.

[Tim Miller]

I don't think. No, we talked right before.

[Bill Kristol]

We kind of talked in the middle. We talked after the red carpet had been rolled out for Putin and our soldiers were made to kneel at the base of Vladimir Putin's plane, but have not spoken to you since. Kind of the joint statement from Putin and Trump, which was very Russian and just the style of how it went. Putin spoke first, there were no questions taken. It was all stuff that was very common for people who watch Russian, quote, unquote, press conferences. But it was very unlike traditional Trump press conferences and American press conferences. And then in the ensuing period, we've seen a bunch of leaks about what was being discussed and about Trump's convos with our supposed allies afterwards. So before we get into what's happening today, what were you and Eric's big takeaways?

[Eric Edelman]

Looking back at Friday, Eric was open to the proposition as it was happening, that much as one disliked the optics and the red carpet and stuff, that maybe the thing was a nothing burger. But I think he became much more convinced after following it closely, reading the Russian press, reading European reactions in particular, talk to people from Europe who had been briefed on what had happened, that it was actually bad. I mean, that there really was a kind of Putin lectured Trump. Trump didn't push back. And I think you see that in Trump's comments since the summit, right, including the Hannity interview, which was just Friday night, but then subsequent truth social posts and so forth. He's sort of on board the Putin agenda. Best case was that he would just. That it would be a failed summit and maybe that Trump would hold it a little bit against Putin. I think it's the opposite. You know, it's sort of a failed summit. Trump knows that and he's. He'll be annoyed at Zelensky today, I worry. I just think that's the fact, probably. And he doesn't seem to be pressuring Putin in any way. Right. He gave up on the ceasefire. He's given up on territorial integrity of Ukraine. Not a word, God forbid, about the continued assaults on Ukrainian civilians which have marked this past weekend. They were sort of going on almost as the summit was happening. So Yeah, I think it was a bad night in Alaska. And we'll see what happens today in the Oval Office laying the groundwork for.

[Bill Kristol]

Where we're at as it comes today, because it does. I share Eric's kind of trajectory on that, where watching it live, it's like, okay, well, maybe this was just kind of one of those meetings that could have been an email type situations where like nothing really happens. But as we learned what they kind of talked about in private. And then Trump's called Zelensky and then now Trump's public statements afterwards with Hannity. And then on social media, like you're seeing that he's basically reverted back to where he was whenever. That was a couple months ago when they were berating Zelensky in the Oval. And so just to kind of lay the groundwork for that, the meeting that is today in the White House. Zelenskyy this time has learned that he needs some muscle, he needs some heavies with him. So Macron, Starmer, Maers, Germany, Stubb from Finland, who I guess Trump likes for some reason, Meloni from Italy are all with him. JD on the other hand, will attend. So we'll see if what Trump's heavy does. It should be important to note that overnight there's a Russian strike in Kharkiv, killing six, including two children, leaving 20 injured. A lot of video from that going out. So the Russians are not slowing down their attacks on civilians at all. And then I think most telling was this Trump bleach from yesterday. Ahead of the meeting, President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started? No getting back obama Given Crimea 12 years ago and no all caps, no going into NATO by Ukraine. Some things never change. So again, that posture is just basically Zelensky, you need to fold and you need to wave the white flag and understand that you're not going to have.

[Tim Miller]

A self government going forward that can.

[Bill Kristol]

Choose to align militarily with countries that you wish that you think might support you. And that's really where it comes down to. But I think that's where we are this morning.

[Eric Edelman]

Yeah, I mean, Trump's no going into NATO undercuts what some people were taking a little hope from Witkoff, saying something about security guarantees, even like Article 5. Well, that's literally what NATO is. And Trump is basically ruling out any kind of serious security guarantee, let alone whether it would actually ever be enforced the way other ones that Putin has signed on to haven't been enforced. So that part is very bad.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, let's just sit on that part.

[Bill Kristol]

Point for a second because this struck me as well.

[Tim Miller]

Marco was also doing the rounds this.

[Bill Kristol]

Weekend where he was saying this. He was like, look, there's going to be real security guarantees in writing, et cetera.

[Tim Miller]

You can't square those two things, right.

[Bill Kristol]

That like, there's no going into NATO by Ukraine, but there will be real security guarantees. And like the whole point of NATO is that it's a security guarantee.

[Tim Miller]

How is the US Going to provide.

[Bill Kristol]

A security guarantee to Ukraine without it looking like essentially something like Article 5, where if Russia attacks Ukraine, America will defend it. Like, what's the difference? Because that's the whole point of why he doesn't want Ukraine to be in NATO because he doesn't want Ukraine to have security guarantees. Right. It doesn't make sense.

[Eric Edelman]

Yeah, we could have a bilateral security guarantee with Ukraine the way we do with Japan or something. Defense. We could station troops there the way we do with Japan and South Korea. I don't think Trump's really on board for that. The Wyckoff thing is so insane. If we had an Article 5 relationship with Ukraine, we would be committed to fighting to, to help them defeat Russia, which I don't think Trump has. He won't even give them arms, let alone obviously talk about, you know, any kind of U.S. involvement. So, no, it's, it's totally fake. I think the security guarantee thing. And yeah, that was sort of the talking point. They used to try to pacify some, some critics like us. But I, I don't think it has lasted very long. Obviously, you know, on the Europeans, Eric's in touch with them. He was ambassador to Finland. He actually, you know, the Finns have done a, the current Finnish president has done a very good job of sort of buttering up Trump, I think, in a hard headed way and in a way that's consistent with Finnish national interests and NATO's interests.

[Tim Miller]

Is he the one that's been golfing with him? I don't know.

[Eric Edelman]

He's a very good golfer. Apparently he was a varsity golfer at Clemson or something. He went to college here.

[Bill Kristol]

Okay.

[Eric Edelman]

It's some, I don't know if it's Clemson, but something like that. And so he's played golf several times with Trump and he, I'm sure he lets Trump win.

[Bill Kristol]

Furman. Important difference.

[Eric Edelman]

Furman. Sorry, I don't know.

[Bill Kristol]

LSU has something to kick.

[Eric Edelman]

I don't want to offend the South Carolinians watching here. Yeah, how could I get confuse those two. Yeah, it probably lets Trump, you know, cheat and win a little bit in golf. And so he's done his duty. I mean, it is amazing how far the Europeans have gone, I've got to say. It's obviously distasteful in a way, but I give them credit, you know, they're serious, they don't want Ukraine to lose and they're willing to swallow an awful lot of pride and dignity, you might almost say, in dealing with this clown we have as our President of the United States, unfortunately. But I'm gathered the Europeans, Zelensky may have asked them to come, but I think a lot of them volunteered to come. It is really astounding. It's one thing to have one maybe onto the, you know, the EU commissioners show up or one of them kind of come with a, an effective mandate from the others.

[Tim Miller]

I should mention that she is also going.

[Bill Kristol]

I didn't include her on the list. And Ruta of NATO.

[Eric Edelman]

Yeah, no, but I mean from Macron and Merits and Starbucks. I mean it's like, you know, it's a NATO summit in effect in the Oval Office, which is a real attempt, which incidentally totally confirms your view in your excellent, you know, analyses that you did over the weekend and then Eric Edelman's view that this was a very bad summit in Alaska. They wouldn't be a lot alarmed if they hadn't gotten readouts that alarmed them. They're not, you know, they don't like just hop on planes to come to the US for, you know, if it's just a meeting, that's a fun meeting in the Oval.

[Tim Miller]

It was just a nothing burger.

[Eric Edelman]

Right.

[Bill Kristol]

Is the initial thought, you know, by definition not be anything for them to, you know, jump to do.

[Eric Edelman]

Right.

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[Bill Kristol]

They've been really good. Astonishingly good, to be honest. Almost all of them. I mean, I think Starmer's got some domestic issues maybe you should focus on. But like McCrone.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, even Maloney has been surprisingly good. She was. We're very concerned that she was going.

[Bill Kristol]

To be more kind of in the urban camp and has not been from Italy. So, I mean, it is. It's a little dispiriting to the fact that as an American, as a patriotic.

[Tim Miller]

American, the fact that we have the Europeans flying here to beg our president to not be a surrender monkey, it.

[Bill Kristol]

Hurts me as someone born in the 80s who grew up believing that America as the leader of the free world was something that I had some pride in. Clearly not the leader of the free world anymore.

[Eric Edelman]

Eric and I were talking a little bit before the show, and, you know, Eric was in the Foreign Service for three decades and very senior, obviously ambassador, very senior positions, under Secretary of Defense. And he said, you know, one consistent theme was he was in, as he said, you know, hundreds, maybe thousands of meetings, trying to push European allies to do more, to step up, to be a little tougher minded, not to go, not to fall for some Russian propaganda stunt, you know, way back into the 80s with the deployment of the medium range missiles and a million instances, obviously, and even in my four years in government, obviously, a lot of that. And here we are the opposite. It's heartening that the Europeans have done this, but what has to root for the European. I don't want to root for the Europeans against the American president. Exactly. But certainly the European. Yeah, the European leaders are much closer to the core, you know, mission of defending liberty and helping our allies than the American president is. So that's. But look, I hope they succeed, honestly, just for the sake of Ukraine, obviously, and for the world and to stop Putin. But I don't know. Trump's. I don't know. We'll see. I'm worried that Trump is. Trump is a little more dug in than. Who knows? Who knows.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean, Trump is a. It's important to remember that Trump is.

[Bill Kristol]

A coward that doesn't like to make.

[Tim Miller]

Big decisions like this.

[Bill Kristol]

Like, he, like, fundamentally, he wants everybody to like him. Like that, you know, trait that, you know, the fact that Fred didn't hug him and tell him that he loved him as a child has been the thing that has saved us from the worst case outcome in a couple of different areas, I think, over this decade. The hope, right, is that it's just this Trump is responsive to the last person that talks to him type thing. And he was susceptible to Putin's flattery, and then now he'll be susceptible to whatever Ruta calling him daddy again. And maybe that'll buy them a couple more months. That's a pretty sad place to be that that's like the best case hope, right? That that is what happens. You buy more time. Trump hears the other perspective, is convinced that it's, you know, Putin that's trying to snub him. He doesn't want to seem like he's whatever, getting pushed over. And the thing that we've been worried about from the start is that eventually this thing comes to a head where Trump really has convinced himself that it's up to Zelensky to give up, that that is the way for this to end. And that if he refuses, then he's not doing. He's not whatever, doing what Trump wishes. And then Trump just takes his ball and goes home, right? And it's just like, good luck, you guys. That's the negative scenario that who knows what comes out of today?

[Eric Edelman]

Or just the drifting on, doing nothing but not providing serious assistance to Ukraine. Also, ultimately, it's hard for Ukraine to sustain it, but they have. I got to say, I think back in February, January, February, when we were correctly, very alarmed, one piece of the alarm was that Ukraine couldn't sustain it without a fresh infusion of arms and support, even over the next, what was then, the next, what, four or five months in that respect. Ukraine's doing better than we expected. And Russia is probably weaker than we thought, actually. Which makes it all the more infuriating that Trump is kind of propping up this dictator who's suffering terrible casualties, has fought the war brutally, but kind of idiotically, actually, and may be susceptible to actual. It's real, real pressure, right? But whatever. That's Lindsey Graham, that sanctions bill 85 co sponsors. It's any moment, any moment coming now. I mean, the degree to which these people who do know better, leave aside Rubio, which is Lindsey Graham types, they're not ever willing. Are they ever gonna question. Forget it. Forget that I even began that question.

[Bill Kristol]

John Thune's planning on bringing that bill to the floor tomorrow. He's gotta wash his hair. He's got a big week. Maybe next week that bill will come to the floor. We'll see. I don't gain much hope. Similarly, how it's I feel silly at this point to even say when will the Republican senator show? It is fine. It also feels silly to say this, but it's like how we even got into this bizarro world where the President of the United States, the vice president, and a huge sloth of the country just accepts the insane perspective that Zelensky is. It's incumbent on Zelensky to be the.

[Tim Miller]

One to end the war right now, where it's like there actually is a person that can end the war and it's Putin and that is the person.

[Bill Kristol]

That they refuse to put an iota of pressure on to try to do it. And you know, it's just this total kind of bizarro world assessment of what is happening that under skirts, you know, our entire idiotic strategic positioning when it comes to these negotiations. So anyway, we'll see what happens today.

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[Tim Miller]

I want to talk to you about.

[Bill Kristol]

The mail in ballot stuff. Here's what Trump said this morning on.

[Tim Miller]

Truth Social I'm going to lead a movement to get rid of mail in ballots. And also while we're at it, highly.

[Bill Kristol]

Quote inaccurate, very expensive and seriously controversial.

[Tim Miller]

Voting machines with their horrible radical left policies.

[Bill Kristol]

Blah blah blah blah blah.

[Tim Miller]

Democrats are virtually unelectable without using completely.

[Bill Kristol]

Disproven mail in scam. Elections can never be honest with mail in ballots voting. So this to me is like extremely ominous.

[Tim Miller]

Trump sends out a lot of crazy bleeds like we don't analyze every single.

[Bill Kristol]

One of them, but I should just Mention among the states with all mail in voting, my home state, Colorado, California, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, a lot of these states are places where Democrats probably are looking to pick up seats. Certainly in California and Colorado and Nevada and depending on how things shake out in Utah with the potential court fights, maybe Utah.

[Tim Miller]

So this is just straight back to.

[Bill Kristol]

Stop the steel 2020 stuff like laying the groundwork, like the writing is on the wall. You do not need. This is not bluster, you don't need to read through the lines. He's just absolutely saying that he is starting to lay the groundwork for if the Democrats win the House next year, they will call it rigged and fight it and use every power they can to not seat people that come in in these states that have mail in voting. I don't think there's any other way to read this.

[Eric Edelman]

I'd go a little further. I think there's laying the groundwork for acting in the summer or spring to stop states from actually using mail in ballots, including not only the all mail in states, all the mail states you mentioned, but here in Virginia we have pretty generous early voting, pretty easy mail in and then obviously same day voting. I've done all three in the last several cycles, depending on where I am on election day and the like. Glenn Youngkin won the governorship here in Virginia in 2021. The Republican slate won all three statewide offices. No one's ever said anything. It's like zero problems, literally zero. And Democrats have however gotten more used to mail in voting and use it a little more. So stopping it would presumably help Republicans. I was struck, I think there's a draft executive order here at the beach. I haven't followed quite as closely but I saw some texts about this executive order and one of the things he apparently says in passing the states, the 50 states are, are agents of the federal government somehow in this respect in conducting the elections. That is really ominous that we have a very federalist election system. Obviously the way it's conducted in one state isn't the same as others. Some are all mail in, some are very restricted mail in and so forth. Different voting hours, different this and that, some basic Federal requirements, obviously 18 year old vote and non discrimination requirements and the like. But he's laying the groundwork for a federal takeover of a lot of our elections or as much of it as they need to either distort the results, challenge the results afterwards and throw them out, as you say. I mean you could imagine the Republican House refusing to recognize certain results in certain states, as you were saying. And then obviously for 2028, with a bigger Runway to this, a huge attempt to put a major thumb on the scale of the actual conduct of the election as well as the counting of the ballot. So I think this is really. I need to study up more on this and maybe we can talk more about it next week. I mean we'll see exactly what. What he's ordering or not ordering. And they're talking about even legislation that the compliant Republican Congress might pass next year. Apparently there's some internal debate. One of the text chains someone said whether they can do this all by executive order. The President Article 2 or they're going to try to get legislation to curb states ability to shape their own election procedures within certain limits, obviously, which is the way it is now. But I think all in all. And then you put it together with DC If I can loop back to that for a second. Right.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Just real quick before we go back.

[Bill Kristol]

To D.C. let me read. Because here's what he said about the executive order because I want to loop back to D.C. too. We don't have the actual text yet, but here's what he wrote about it. An executive order to help bring honesty to the 2026 midterm elections. Remember, the states are merely an agent for the federal government in counting and tabulating the votes. They must do what the federal government as represented by the President of the United States tells them for the good of our country to do.

[Eric Edelman]

Wow. Well that's even worse than I realized. So that set off footage were huge alarm bells in this one text chain I'm on with very sophisticated election lawyer types. They see where this is going. The term that seems a little innocuous if you're a civilian agent of the federal government. What does that mean? Is really a code for take over and something that's not been considered to be the case. Right. There's been huge difference to the states.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah. I don't remember Madison. Is that in the Federalist Papers that the federal government. That the states must do exactly what the federal government tells them for the.

[Tim Miller]

Good of the country. Is that I missed that.

[Eric Edelman]

Yeah. I mean there are areas where the federal government obviously trumps the states of state commerce and stuff. But that's why it sets off such a large. Because this would be turning the states into agents in this area in ways that has not been the case before and is very dangerous. And it's not the federal government. What does he say? As exemplified by me, the President of the United States or something?

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah. He's represented by The President? Yeah.

[Eric Edelman]

So the President just gets to decide how our elections were. He doesn't like what's happening in Virginia. There's too many mail ballots showing up. He just voids them, I suppose. Right. I mean, I don't think that's. Incidentally, that sounds alarmist and crazy. I don't think that's at all beyond the pale.

[Tim Miller]

I don't either.

[Bill Kristol]

Here's one of the points you made there. I just want to sit on for a second because I think it's really right, is even if they fail on the maximalist version of this, right, like some federal takeover into who the hell. No, I guess with the D.C. stuff, we'll get into what the Nat Maximus version of this might look like at.

[Tim Miller]

A smaller level, as you say, because.

[Bill Kristol]

Of the disinformation that Trump and others have been putting out and the conspiracy theories. The type of voter that votes MAGA doesn't usually use the mail anymore.

[Eric Edelman]

Right.

[Bill Kristol]

Like they've bought into a lot of these conspiracy theories. And so, you know, this is why on election nights you see these things where you have these huge dumps one way or the other. Because now, these days, you didn't used to see, because Republicans vote in one manner, Democrats vote in another manner.

[Tim Miller]

So if you look to the midterms.

[Bill Kristol]

It'S not just in blue states that Democrats are poised to pick up seats. Right. Like they are poised to, I think, potentially gain also in some of the red areas. I mean, just like off the top of my head, like the Nebraska Don Bacon district with him retiring would be one example. So now in those states, you could, who knows, monkey with the rules again, at the smallest level, you could just change the rules to make mail in balloting harder, which makes it harder for Democrats to vote. Maybe the next level up of nefariousness, there could just be an intense level to challenge mail in ballots where those are close election, those are looked at much more closely and thrown out on technicalities much more closely than ballots are. And then obviously there's even more chicanery than that they could get into. To me, that at this point is like the minimum that we can now expect to happen.

[Eric Edelman]

No, I think that's right. And I think if you add to that the more sort of racially inflected ways in which they could also do things within states. Philadelphia's got a particular problem with some of these mail in ballots because we've seen in the past a higher rate of challenge. Central Pennsylvania, fine. But super strict scrutiny in certain areas which coincide with Democratic Votes and minority population and stuff. So I think the degree of monkeying around that can happen once you open this door as widely as Trump wants to is really alarming.

[Bill Kristol]

On the D.C. point again. Now, as we get more towards the maximalist, scary side of this, again, why stuff has to be fought. Now, this is another thing that is absolutely on their mind as far as something they're plotting, which is if there are protests about new election rules, you know, if during the early voting, you know, you remember this during 2020, where there'd be like a video of, of them moving a box the wrong way and, you know, some, some MAGA account.

[Tim Miller]

Would look at it and say, oh, this is evidence that they traded out one box or the other.

[Bill Kristol]

Right.

[Tim Miller]

Like, you know, all this stuff starts.

[Bill Kristol]

To come out during early voting and, and they use these things as, as pretexts and rationale to send in, you know, federal troops, National Guard troops to guard voting places, maybe particularly in blue areas, to intimidate people to prevent them from coming. You know, there's just a whole range of potential threats on that vector as well. And I think that the combination of D.C. and this, this executive order around mail in balloting, it lays the groundwork.

[Eric Edelman]

For that pretty clearly and for real. I mean, really dangerous things. The governor of Virginia might say, we don't need any help in 2026. If you, if it's Abigail Sandberger, even concealed, if it's Glenn Youngkin or whoever.

[Bill Kristol]

The Republican is, Sears, Winsome Sears, I kind of think she'll go, yeah, but probably Sandberger.

[Eric Edelman]

But as this is where the Ohio and other states, West Virginia and National Guard showing up in D.C. i think it's a little unclear to whom they're reporting now, to their own governor or to the Defense Department. There's complicated issues of how the National Guard works. But the idea that if Governor Spanberger says we don't need to mobilize the Virginia National Guard, I'm not doing it. Trump says, well, actually, the West Virginia National Guard solicitor come in to help make sure that the elections in inner city Richmond are really legit. You know, I mean, you could get, well, the showdowns between different states. But this is why I think it's interesting that they've clearly gone out of their way to encourage these Republican governors to send in, you know, a couple hundred. It's not really changing anything. You might say National Guard from their states, but they want to establish that predicate that even if the governor is not friendly to them, where the state legislature is not friendly to them, they can call on other states to, to provide for and they don't do in addition to what the forces they can unilaterally deploy, I suppose, you know, the federal forces, they can call on other states to help out, so to speak.

[Bill Kristol]

I meant to get to this during our Russia section. The image of the day, I guess we're talking about how dispiriting it was that we're just hoping for our European friends to save us and to give us a backbone. The other dispiriting image from this morning was, have you seen this? The Russian tank that was moving into Ukraine in Zaporizhzhia, is that right? Is that how you say that? The Russian tank that was going to storm Ukrainian positions there in eastern Ukraine was waving two flags above it, a Russian and American side by side. So it tells you what the Russians think about the state of play. So I don't know. Bill, I'll leave you with that image.

[Eric Edelman]

That's a horrifying note to leave on, but I'll, I'll go out to the beach and try to forget that blast image. That really is.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Turn off the phone. Turn off the phone.

[Bill Kristol]

You don't need to watch the Oval Office today. We'll give you the highlights and we'll be back next week, hopefully still aligned with the west and not with Putin. We'll see how that turns out. Everybody else will be back here tomorrow.

[Tim Miller]

For another edition of the Bulwark Podcast.

[Bill Kristol]

See y' all then. Peace.

[Eric Edelman]

SA.

[Tim Miller]

The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and.

[Bill Kristol]

Editing by Jason Brown.

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