The Bulwark Podcast — Episode Summary
Title: Bill Kristol: Diaper Tantrum
Date: October 27, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Kristol
Overview
In this episode, host Tim Miller and Bill Kristol, Editor-at-large at The Bulwark, dive into the latest in American politics: Trump’s impulsive trade policy and tariffs, dysfunction in Congress, rampant corruption and cronyism, the Democratic response (or lack thereof) to the populist challenges, corruption in defense contracts, the ongoing government shutdown, and the rise of anti-establishment energies on both left and right. They also touch on the upswing of brazen racism and misogyny from Trump, shifts in the media/corporate landscape, foreign policy saber-rattling, and the implications of redistricting.
Key Discussion Points
1. Trump's Tariffs on Canada — An "Impulse-Driven" Policy
[00:31–04:14]
- Trump abruptly imposes a 10% tariff on Canadian goods, reportedly in response to a Canadian TV ad featuring Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.
- Tim Miller notes, “You can't have Republicans on a show to talk about the tariff issue because none of them are for it, right? None of them are for a random 10% tariff on Canada. I mean, Peter Navarro, a handful of cranks are actually for it. But everyone else is against it. [...] And there's zero coming from them, especially on tariffs.” [01:54]
- Bill Kristol highlights Congressional abdication: “The system does not work if Congress does not exercise any authority or take any responsibility for anything. [...] The Republican Party is preventing Congress from doing its job.” [02:59]
2. Absurd Justifications from Trump's Treasury Secretary
[04:14–06:42]
- The Trump administration justifies the tariff by claiming Canada is engaging in “psyops” against the US.
- Tim Miller reacts in disbelief: “The Canadians are running psyops on us, so we have to punish. Who? The American people. We gotta put a tax on Americans buying Canadian goods because the sneaky Canadians are running psyops on us. What the fuck are you talking about?” [04:14–05:22]
- Both hosts skewer Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant for his disingenuous media performance and phony attempt to empathize with struggling farmers.
3. Impact on US Farmers and Hypocrisy in the Administration
[06:42–09:27]
- Trump's tariffs lead to significant pain for US farmers, particularly soybean growers, due to retaliatory actions from China.
- Tim Miller mocks Bessant’s claim of being a “soybean farmer”—really a wealthy investor: “Just because you purchased some land that other people farm does not mean you felt the pain. What pain have you felt?” [06:56–07:39]
4. Geopolitics: Favoring Argentina over Canada
[09:27–10:44]
- The administration bends over backward to support Argentina but penalizes Canada, revealing a transactional and personal approach to “alliances.”
- Kristol: “Canada is an actual NATO ally. Canada is a founding member. [...] We're bending over backwards to help Argentina and Canada. We're just sticking it to Canada.” [09:30–10:44]
- Miller: “An ally now means somebody that is an ally with the Donald Trump family and Trump courts.” [10:44–10:51]
5. Corruption Watch: Defense Contracts and the Donor "Swamp"
[13:32–19:03]
- The Pentagon awards a significant contract to Unusual Machines, which lists Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor. Both hosts liken this to traditional political grifting, but at a scale and openness beyond Hunter Biden or past Democratic scandals.
- Miller: “This is just totally on another level from anything that was happening that was complained about endlessly on Fox.” [14:18]
- Kristol: “How much can Trump ruin the US government in four years as opposed to simply personally kind of grifting from it?” [15:34]
- Discussion of the private funding of the new Trump White House ballroom, with corporations returning to Trump after January 6th. “The traditional swamp has just totally co opted him and it's all the big defense contractors, tech companies are all now giving him money.” [17:53]
6. The “Mutual Back-Scratching” of Corporate and Authoritarian America
[18:01–20:23]
- Kristol notes, “If the US government and the most powerful corporations in America are engaged in mutual back scratching with no oversight, no checks within the executive branch, no congressional checks [...] that's kind of a bad situation. And I do think incidentally that's sort of the pattern of other authoritarian regimes.” [18:01–19:03]
7. Populist Currents on the Left and Democratic Strategy
[20:55–24:56]
- Miller and Kristol observe an energy merging between left-populist movements and mainstream Democrats, exemplified by a big rally in New York and the crowd’s anti-corporate, anti-establishment fervor.
- Discussion of the need for a “Democratic McCain” –a mainstream reformer prioritizing anti-corruption and populist economic policies– to answer both MAGA populism and leftist dissatisfaction.
- Kristol: “We need a McCain Democrat.” [24:30]
8. Government Shutdown Dynamics
[24:56–29:40]
- Ongoing government shutdown with SNAP/food aid expiring in some states.
- Doubts about Democratic endgame: “It’s not really great to get into a battle where you don't really know how you're going to get out of it. That said, I think it's been effective so far, at least at ratings,” says Miller. [27:57]
- Possible retreat recommended: focus on blaming Republicans for service cuts.
9. Congressional Dysfunction: The Arizona Seat and the Epstein Files
[29:40–32:04]
- Republicans block the seating of Adelita Grijalva, winner of a special election, partly to prevent the release of the Epstein files.
- Miller: “This is a total hair on fire outrage moment...And then you add on top of that a big part of the reason she hasn't been seated is because of the Epstein cover up.” [30:28–31:16]
10. Overarching Message: “No Kings” vs. Kitchen Table Issues
[31:16–32:59]
- Kristol suggests that the “No Kings” (anti-authoritarian, pro-rule of law) message may have more resonance than just focusing on healthcare/pocketbook issues.
11. Trump’s 2028 Rumblings and Authoritarian Paranoia
[32:59–38:10]
- Discussion of Trump’s cheeky but noncommittal statement about running again in 2028 or using a VP “gimmick” to skirt term limits.
- Both hosts debate whether this is comforting or just part of laying groundwork for even deeper anti-democratic moves.
12. Racism and Misogyny, Out in the Open
[38:10–41:18]
- Trump brags about cognitive tests, mocking Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jasmine Crockett as “low IQ.”
- Miller: “It's interesting that the right wanted to bring back the word retarded when this guy got into the office again, because it's just like what. The first questions are easy. [...] That's one and a half years. That's like your first words. It's like mama, papa, tiger.” [38:52–39:27]
- Kristol: “The racism and misogyny in Trump world is increasingly just. The mask is off.” [39:27]
13. Venezuela War Rumors and Foreign Policy
[41:21–44:09]
- Concern over the US moving major military assets toward the Caribbean, possibly telegraphing action against Venezuela, alongside Trump’s boasts about “killing” narco-traffickers; both hosts caution against dismissing the possibility of a reckless military adventure.
14. Redistricting & Political Power
[44:09–48:46]
- Ongoing state fights over redistricting in Virginia, Indiana, Illinois, and the implications for 2026/2028 congressional control.
- Noted tension between identity politics and the necessity of maximizing Democratic seats, especially in close races.
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On Congress's failure to check Trump:
“The system does not work if Congress does not exercise any authority or take any responsibility for anything... The capitulation is complete and Trump is just a little dictator.”
— Bill Kristol [02:59] -
On Trump's tariff justification:
“The Canadians are running psyops on us, so we have to punish. Who? The American people.”
— Tim Miller [05:22] -
On Trump administration's ally definition:
“An ally now means somebody that is an ally with the Donald Trump family and Trump courts.”
— Tim Miller [10:44] -
On corruption and mutual co-option:
“These are powerful people. If the US government and the most powerful corporations in America are engaged in mutual backscattering with no oversight, no checks… that’s kind of a bad situation.”
— Bill Kristol [18:01] -
On the “McCain Democrat” concept:
“We need a McCain Democrat.”
— Bill Kristol [24:30] -
On Trump’s cognitive boasting:
“He still thinks that that test that was tested, whether you have serious dementia or not, demonstrates that he's smarter than you… But black women, women of color.”
— Tim Miller [38:52–39:27] -
On the shutdown’s political calculus:
“It’s not really great to get into a battle where you don't really know how you're going to get out of it. That said, I think it's been effective so far, at least at ratings.”
— Tim Miller [27:57] -
On rising open prejudice:
“The racism and misogyny in Trump world is increasingly just, the mask is off.”
— Bill Kristol [39:27]
Important Timestamps
- 00:31–04:14 — Trump’s tariff on Canada, Congressional abdication
- 05:22 — Ridicule of “psyops” justification
- 06:42–09:27 — Impact on US farmers, Bessant’s “soybean farmer” claim
- 09:27–10:44 — Favoring Argentina over Canada
- 14:18–20:23 — Corruption, defense contracts, and corporate influence
- 24:30 — “We need a McCain Democrat”
- 29:40–32:04 — Arizona seat, Epstein files
- 38:10–41:18 — Trump’s racism and “cognitive” boasts
- 44:09–48:46 — Redistricting and control of Congress
Episode Tone
A mix of incredulity, exasperation, gallows humor, and concern for the future of American democracy. Miller and Kristol are candid, sometimes caustic, and forthright about the decline of institutional checks, the normalization of cronyism, and the challenge for Democrats to meet the populist moment with credible reformers.
For listeners looking to understand not only the news of the week but the deeper undercurrents threatening American governance, this episode is a sharp, unsparing diagnosis—delivered with both alarm and wit.