The Bulwark Podcast: Bill Kristol - "Exploit the Rifts"

Release Date: December 30, 2024

Hosts & Guest:

• Tim Miller – Host of The Bulwark Podcast
• Bill Kristol – Political commentator and co-founder of The Bulwark

1. Introduction

In this episode, Tim Miller welcomes Bill Kristol to discuss the burgeoning internal conflicts within the MAGA movement and the broader Republican Party. The conversation delves into the rifts between traditional MAGA supporters and the newer "Tech Bro" faction, led by figures like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Kristol provides insightful analysis on how these divisions could impact the upcoming political landscape, including potential legislative challenges and Trump's position within the party.

2. Tim Miller’s Encounter with MAGA Figures in Phoenix

[01:35] Tim Miller recounts his recent experience at a MAGA-dominated event in downtown Phoenix. Invited by connections from a previous interview with Steve Bannon, Miller describes the atmosphere as a mix of old acquaintances and staunch opponents.

Tim Miller: "Most people either don't know me or are curious about my presence...I think it's interesting to actually hear them off of social media and try to understand what they really think about things."
[03:15]

During the event, Miller encounters Matt Gaetz, who appears more subdued than in previous interactions. Gaetz discusses the importance of immediate deportations and the necessity of a strong Attorney General from day one, reflecting the hardline stance within certain MAGA circles.

3. Emergence of Extreme Personalities

The conversation shifts to the appearance of more extreme individuals within the MAGA movement, such as Ivan Raiklin, dubbed the "Deep State Marauder." Kristol expresses concern over Raiklin’s aggressive tactics and his list of perceived enemies, which aligns with Steve Bannon’s disruptive strategies.

Bill Kristol: "A lot of these people are stupid, really what it comes down to...Raiklin is like the person that Steve Bannon would want to hang out with."
[09:28]

Kristol emphasizes that while figures like Raiklin pose significant threats, they are not representative of the entire MAGA base but rather the more radical fringe.

4. Internal Conflicts: MAGA vs. Tech Bro Factions

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the tension between the traditional MAGA supporters and the emerging Tech Bro faction. This rift is epitomized by the clash between Elon Musk and MAGA conservatives over immigration policies.

Bill Kristol: "If these guys aren't willing to swallow the tech guys' views on immigration, then eventually I would think that they're going to lose out to the Stephen Miller wing internally."
[16:26]

Kristol points out that Tech Bros like Musk advocate for more flexible immigration policies, often clashing with the nativist stance of MAGA hardliners. This disagreement threatens to fracture the Republican Party's unity, potentially undermining legislative efforts.

Tim Miller: "Elon is not going to win the internal fight...Stephen Miller is going to write the immigration bill."
[17:00]

The inability to reconcile these differing viewpoints could lead to significant policy stalemates, especially on crucial issues like immigration.

5. The Debt Ceiling Debate and GOP Strategy

The conversation transitions to the impending debt ceiling crisis and its implications for the Republican Party. Kristol critiques former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's handling of the debt ceiling, arguing that postponing action has created unnecessary political strife.

Bill Kristol: "Trump sets the debt ceiling timeline in this bleat as June...some experts have said that the debt ceiling would hit quite a bit before that, early here in 2025."
[28:04]

Kristol suggests that Republicans might leverage this issue to exploit internal divisions and weaken Trump’s influence by forcing compromises that align more with hardline elements than with Trump's pragmatic approach.

Bill Kristol: "The debt limit is core to MAGA, it is immigration and nativism...they want a reconciliation bill on immigration to fund the border."
[19:55]

He anticipates that Democrats might use this crisis to their advantage, possibly pushing for the elimination of the debt ceiling altogether, thereby undermining Republican legislative efforts.

6. Trump’s Position and Party Dynamics

Kristol discusses Donald Trump's current standing within the GOP, noting his diminishing momentum and focus on personal pursuits over active political maneuvering.

Tim Miller: "Trump looks way weaker than he did the week after the election...he's been focused on golfing and being the DJ at Mar-a-Lago."
[22:55]

He argues that Trump's reluctance to decisively manage internal conflicts could embolden various factions within the party to vie for influence, potentially leading to a less cohesive and more volatile Republican agenda.

7. Outlook on Upcoming Legislative Battles

Looking ahead, Kristol forecasts that the Republican Party will face numerous legislative challenges due to these internal rifts. The inability to form a unified front could result in messy negotiations and compromised policy outcomes.

Bill Kristol: "The big legislative fights are going to be a lot messier than I had maybe anticipated a couple of weeks ago."
[25:27]

He emphasizes the importance for opposition parties to exploit these divisions to weaken Trump's hold and prevent a unified MAGA agenda from taking root.

8. Foreign Policy Considerations and Jimmy Carter’s Passing

In a brief segment towards the end, Tim Miller and Bill Kristol touch upon foreign policy topics, including the recent passing of former President Jimmy Carter. Kristol reflects on Carter's legacy and the lessons modern Democrats can learn from his approach to governance and bipartisanship.

Tim Miller: "Jimmy Carter was always personally courteous and pleasant to me...a different era, a good and decent man."
[35:37]

They discuss the importance of maintaining decency and a balanced approach in foreign policy, contrasting it with the current administration's more chaotic and confrontational style.

9. Conclusion

Tim Miller wraps up the episode by highlighting the ongoing and upcoming political battles that the Republican Party faces due to internal rifts. He underscores the necessity for Democrats and opposition forces to remain vigilant and capitalize on these divisions to safeguard liberal democracy.

Bill Kristol: "Trump has not built momentum...every defeat, every obstacle helps slow the momentum."
[32:54]

Miller reassures listeners that The Bulwark Podcast will continue to provide insightful analysis in the tumultuous months ahead, promising more in-depth discussions and expert interviews.

Notable Quotes

• Tim Miller: "I think it's interesting to actually hear them off of social media and try to understand what they really think about things."
  [03:15]

• Bill Kristol: "A lot of these people are stupid, really what it comes down to...Raiklin is like the person that Steve Bannon would want to hang out with."
  [09:28]

• Bill Kristol: "If these guys aren't willing to swallow the tech guys' views on immigration, then eventually I would think that they're going to lose out to the Stephen Miller wing internally."
  [16:26]

• Bill Kristol: "The big legislative fights are going to be a lot messier than I had maybe anticipated a couple of weeks ago."
  [25:27]

• Bill Kristol: "Trump has not built momentum...every defeat, every obstacle helps slow the momentum."
  [32:54]

Final Thoughts

"Exploit the Rifts" provides a deep dive into the fracturing dynamics within the MAGA movement and the Republican Party. Bill Kristol offers a nuanced perspective on how these internal conflicts could reshape the political landscape, potentially weakening Trump's influence and altering legislative priorities. Listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the challenges facing conservative politics in the United States, making this episode a must-listen for those interested in the future of the GOP and the broader implications for American democracy.