B (2:38)

Yeah, that's good. And then, but then I changed likely to very likely. No, I think, I do think what's your rationale as a senator for not being for it now if Trump's for it? So I think Trump has to sign it, don't you think? I mean this is actual legislation. They may be able to find many ways around it to minimize it, to keep back documents they shouldn't keep back. God knows if they've destroyed some of these things, et cetera, et cetera. Still, I do think we could be within a week or two of Trump signing this legislation, which is pretty well written, I think pretty strict in terms of specifying what has to be released.

A (3:10)

Sure. There's a lot of reasons to have lack of trust in the administration and how they execute laws that are passed by Congress. They haven't shown to exactly be meticulous on that front. And you know, I mean, who the hell knows what, what shenanigans Bondi could be up to as far as the review process of documents. And like I said, they have that caveat about league what they are legally entitled to. You know, so there are definitely caveats here. This is not, this is not as if this thing's going to get signed this week and we're going to know every secret about the Jeffrey Epstein story by next week. But is a political lesson. I mean, maybe I'm wrong about this and I just haven't seen it, but I didn't see a ton of people who thought that the House discharge petition was going to lead to the Senate going along with this as well. John Thune bringing it up and then Donald Trump being forced to sign it. That was not an outcome that I don't think a lot of people predicted. And I think there's some important political lessons from that that you write about a little bit in the newsletter as well about the shotgun method to opposing Trump. It's important to try a lot of things because you, you don't know what's going to land.

B (4:20)

The whole Democratic conference signed the discharge petition and the conventional wisdom at first was they'll never get four Republicans. Then they miraculously got four Republicans, not the moderate, responsible establishment Republicans that everyone's been obsessing about for 89 months. When are they going to come around? Don Bacon, surely he's more responsible. And some of these other senior members, institutionalists. Don Bacon came around Sunday after it was clear that the thing was, you know, had 218 signatures. He never was. He wasn't one of the 218, four sort of oddball MAGA. Well, a couple of cases. MAGA, True Believers or just anyway, whatever members, not the ones you would pick necessarily to be part of the anti Trump coalition did what they thought was right. And for me, the lesson is partly you've got to fight. You got to fight on all fronts and you don't rule out, you know, long shots, sometimes come home and you don't rule it out ahead of time. Second lesson, the Democrats have more leverage than the conventional wisdom has been. You and I have had so many conversations with Democratic strategists which often have begun over, especially the first six months or so of the Trump second term. You know, it's very important that Democrats explain to voters that there's very limited things they can do because otherwise voters will have excessive expectations and blah, blah, blah. They don't be blamed. You know, it's like, I don't know, maybe they should spend less time explaining to voters what they can't do and looking at every possible lever of power they have. And getting within four signatures on a discharge petition is a kind of power. And then you get four to sign on and suddenly you're off to the races. They also, to their credit. I didn't put this in the newsletter. I thought of it afterwards. I mean, remember how they originally got some of those emails and all that? That was that kind of fluky thing. Remember when I think Representative Garcia, who was new to the committee or new to being ranking on the committee back.

A (6:00)

In late July, he was the new ranking America's. Connolly died. Yeah, yeah.

B (6:03)

And he sort of brought us this thing suddenly and it passed. And that's when Johnson had to send the House home early. So again, I think being aggressive, letting backbenchers take the lead. Ro Khanna deserves credit here on the discharge petition. Don't be driven entirely by leadership. Having long meetings with consultants and pollsters and discovering that actually Medicaid is really much more important than all this distraction of Epstein. And also finally, fracturing MAGA may be a better or at least as good a strategy as winning over moderates in terms of damaging Trump's momentum and wounding his efforts to be victorious in his authoritarian project. You've said that, I think before. Don't you think that's.

A (6:41)

Yeah, And I want to get into that just a little bit, just really quick. One more on the House, on the Congressional strategy, and then I want to do the fracturing MAGA part, because the fact that the House was out for two months is also kind of a win, right? Trump. If there's one thing you can learn from Trump strategically, that stalling and kicking the can and gumming up the works and buying yourself time can pay off, by the way. And, like, the. The less that these guys are doing, the more time they're spent fighting about Epstein, the better. The more time they're spent delaying, doing, doing stuff, the better. And so I think that, like, that is another, like, the substance of the Epstein material is important, obviously, to the victims. It's politically important to the extent that we are learning more about Donald Trump's relationship with Epstein, and it's as important as part of the fracturing of maga. But, like, it also means you go back to the last line. Trump's bl. It's like, all I care about is the Republicans get back on point. Like, they're off point. And part of that is their own making, of course, but part of that is, like, the value of them doing this rather than whatever. It's not like the House is going to be doing something good. If they were in, like, maybe they would have been doing nothing, I don't know. But they probably weren't going to be doing anything good if they had been in session and they weren't between the combination of the. Of the fight over the shutdown and then also trying to stall, having this petition get signed. So to me, I just think that there are a lot of, like, tactical. Tactical lessons can be learned here. And they're tactical going forth next year as far as oversight is concerned. This comes out of the House Oversight Committee. You know, I just, I always go back to the lesson that, like, the, the first little. There's a meme that goes around where it's like somebody's like, putting up a bunch of blocks, you know, and it's like something very small and it leads to something big. Was like the Benghazi hearing. Like, like the 13th Benghazi hearing was the first block that led to Jim's. Jim Comey doing the press conference about Hill Clinton a week before the election. Right. Like, you don't know where this stuff can also lead. And it's important to actually put effort into it.

B (8:46)

I mean, the Democrats have been pretty suddenly, maybe got kind of aggressive the last two months, right? The shutdown. I was not 100% certain that they were going to think that was wise to do on September 30th. They went with it, the Democratic senators, and they stuck to their guns for longer than a lot of people thought through the elections on November 4, where they also did very well, better than people expected. And in the middle of that was no Kings, which also went very well. Seven billion people, no violence, etc. Patriotic demonstrations. So they've had a pretty good run for a couple of months. But I'd say that run is partly by willing to take a few risks and not say, oh my God, if we have these no Kings demonstrations, you know, something somewhere will look left wing and we can't do that, right? Or we can't fight ICE too hard because immigration was a very bad issue for Joe Biden. I mean, the degree to which I believe they have sort of internally, maybe without even thinking it through, stepped up a little bit more on a kind of variety of fronts. One of them being Epstein is striking and it's paid off.

A (9:38)

Here we go. There's going to be more happy talk coming very uncharacteristically. Bill and Tim, I know you come here for Rain Cloud. This is the second straight podcast where I'm offering a positive view about our trajectory. So just enjoy it with me if you want, or complain in the comments, whatever you prefer.

B (9:54)

I mean, God knows what will happen tonight or tomorrow if we're having this conversation here.

A (9:58)

Yeah, sure. Between now and when the podcast actually comes out. I don't know about you, but you ever wake up feeling sweaty? The temperature in the bedroom can make or break a good night's sleep and that's why we're turning to Miracle made sheets. They're inspired by NASA technology and use silver infused temperature regulating fabric to help you sleep perfectly all night long. Thanks to their antibacterial silver technology, Miracle made sheets stay cleaner and fresher up to three times longer than regular sheets. That would have been very useful for me in college since I think I washed my sheets twice over the course of four years. Years. That means fewer odors, fewer wash cycles, and way less laundry. It's also great for your skin. This is critical. All that hidden bacteria in regular sheets that can clog your pores and cause breakouts. Miracle Maid's antibacterial design helps you sleep cleaner and clearer night after night. Upgrade your sleep or give the gift of better rest. Go to trymiracle.com thebullwork to try Miracle Maid sheets today, you'll save over 40%. And when you use promo code thebullwork, you'll get an extra 20% off plus a free three piece towel set. They make an amazing gift and with a 30 day money back guarantee, there's no risk. That's trymiracle.com thebullwerk code the bulwark at checkout. Thanks to Miracle Made for sponsoring this episode on the fracturing of maga. I've come back several times to this kind of comedian podcaster named Tim Dillon who is like MAGA adjacent. He's not going to in the front row at Trump rallies. I don't think he's ever spoken at a Trump rally, but he was supportive of Trump. He had dinner with J.D. vance. He is kind of as a populist right affect. He's the one that had Marjorie Taylor Greene who we're going to get to in a second on his podcast to discuss her 2028ambitions at the beginning of her independent shift away from Donald Trump. And so I want to play what Tim Dillon said on his podcast over the weekend.

C (11:50)

And I do think unfortunately, this, this kind of is the end of. I say unfortunately not because I care truly, but I say unfortunately because it seems to not be doing anything good for anyone. This, this is the end of the Trump administration. This is the beginning of the lame duck presidency. It's obvious to everyone, even his most ardent, ardent supporters show up to the White House like Laura Ingram and she's kind of shocked on what the hell is going on. Now we'll start, you know, three years of talking about the ballroom. He will trail off, he will get older, he's going to, he's, he's adorned the White House in gold. Epstein's gonna suck the oxygen out of a lot of this.

A (12:36)

It's obvious to Tim Dillon that this is the end of the Trump presidency. And it's always as an overstated statement. But like this is kind of how I've felt the last week. You know, I don't want to get over excited. Obviously Trump could do an insane amount of damage over the next three years and like, who knows what he will try to pull between now and when he is term limited from his role as president. But in a way that is different from Anything since early January 6th, it does feel as if, like you can see how this thing crashes and burns and how it crashes and burns because in large part people within the MAGA coalition look at it and decide that this is not serving them anymore and that as Tim Dillon said, that this is not doing anything Good for anybody.

B (13:23)

No, I kind of agree that it feels like, I don't know, crashes and burns, but at least fizzles and sputters. And now, I mean, the degree to which they could intensify the authoritarian project at home and abroad, both out of a certain sense of desperation, a sense that they can't afford to lose the White House in 2028. I mean, I think no one should relax for a second about what Trump's trying to do. But I do feel, yeah, that there's some chunk of the Trump coalition, both the sort of normie Republicans out there who just look around. What is all this with the ballroom and the gold at the White House? That he's old and he's falling asleep and he just, it's all, it's all about him. He's not watching out for us. Some of this is tariffs, et cetera. Some combination of that and Epstein and other issues where, yeah, there seems to be more vulnerability. And, you know, empirically, he's down, what, 8 points or so since over 8, 9 months, 10 months, I guess it is now. So, you know that I remember saying somewhere a couple weeks ago, yeah, that could continue. And someone said, no, no, no, I mean, look, maybe it'll level off and maybe he won't go back up. That'll be good. But you can't seriously expect him to go down from 42 to, I don't know, 38 or 37. I don't know, maybe he could. Right. The midterms look bad for the Republicans if Trump's at 38%. You know, now the midterms themselves don't solve everything or anything much. They, they create some oversight possibilities, but the administration will, will, will, will, will not obey subpoenas and et cetera. But yeah, I feel like there's a real moment. I mean, they could not. Democrats cannot decide suddenly there, however, to say, oh, let's just play it safe because we have a little wind in our back.

A (14:53)

Press the advantage. To your point about why, I think it was rational, by the way, to think, to look at history and look at our last decade and think, okay, sure, Trump's had a bad run, but he's not gonna get down below 38. He's got a cult. We're so divided as a country. The right wing media, ecosys. But how did Bush get down below that number? It was because of a mutiny from within his coalition. Right. It was Republicans that got very mad at him over a combination of things, whether it be Harry Myers or the Iraq war. And that has not happened with Trump. He orchestrated and encouraged a riot at the Capitol where police were assaulted, and he did not lose a single supporter. And so he lost a single supporter, but he didn't lose any meaningful percentage of his base. And so why would you think that he would do so now? I think that was a rational thing to think. But as you mentioned, this kind of combination of things, of people now feeling like he's betraying America first principles plus Epstein, plus the economy just being shittier than it was back then and people struggling in their lives, has led to a part where I do think it's feasible to think that he gets down below. I just want to read one other person. While we're getting high on our own supply of Trump demise, here's Andrew Sullivan. Now, Sullivan has always been anti Trump, but has been, you know, has kind of looked askance at the bulwark and been like, I'm not anti Trump. Like those guys. Those guys have Trump derangement syndrome. And, you know, he was pro desantis during the primary and is very anti left. So it's just a different wing of the type of folks that have been, to varying degrees, like, assessing this thing differently than we have. And he writes, this sounds just like Tim Dillon. Trump's overall disapproval rating took a sharp tick upward as he wantonly demolished the east wing of the White House in favor of a massive ballroom in the style of a Gilded Age brothel. America is opposed at 2 to 1. Last night, after calling Republicans demanding the Epstein file stupid, he invited the heads of Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and blackrock to a private dinner. The visuals are more and more Marie Antoinette, not William Jennings Bryan. Political gravity may be returning and a future beyond this authoritarian madness foreseeable once again. I haven't written this a lot lately, but I feel myself slightly emboldened this week. I just think that's kind of hard to argue with at this point.

B (17:12)

Yeah, I mean, you mentioned January 6th, and that for me, is always the moment of like, oh, my God. But he recovered from that and got himself like the president again almost four years later. So that's a caution. But that he turned into, of course, a liberal versus MAGA issue and managed to, amazingly, do so with some success. I think the advantage politically of the Epstein files is it's not that, as you were saying, it's an intramural. I mean, remember the coverage of the Epstein thing six months ago was all this is causing trouble for Trump because some of his base doesn't like it. Now, I Think that was both correct and too simple. Because of course, it turns out the whole country is repulsed and revolted by what Epstein did, as they are right to be. And Trump's cover up just looked increasingly like a cover up to 80% of the public, not just to the, you know, people who were obsessing about Epstein five, six, seven years ago. They turn out to be right, certainly to be obsessing about him, but, you know, led to some crazy places too. But a lot of people were right to say this is an outrage and a bipartisan outrage and so forth. So, you know, in that respect, you mentioned Bush in 2005. In a way, isn't Epstein a little more like Katrina? I mean, it's not an ideal, you know, in a way, Iraq caused big problems for Bush. Don't go around. But still, you could sort of fight that fight. It was Kerry, you know, it was the doves versus the hawks. It was the war on terror. I mean, Katrina was just incompetence and fecklessness. It seemed that way. You're doing a good job, Browning and all that.

A (18:32)

It was really Kathleen Blanco and Mayor Nagin's fault. But okay, we can rehash. We can rehash.

B (18:37)

Were you at the RNC then doing those talking points that they were.

A (18:39)

I was in college.

B (18:40)

Very effective.

A (18:41)

Yeah, I was still in college. So please get out. Don't blame me.

B (18:45)

You're in New Orleans. You know more about it. But, but you know what I mean, in the sense that it was a, it was an out of the blue kind of thing. Epstein's not quite out of the blue, but it was orthogonal to the normal political fights. And those things can sometimes hurt you, hurt you even more. And then if they fit into a narrative. So Katrina fit into. I remember this vividly as a supporter of Iraq, of the war. I mean, if Katrina fit into the notion that he's also incompetently fighting this war, whatever you think of it and the bad information that's the US Going on, it, you know, this is not being managed. Well, look what he's did with Katrina. And I do think also with Epstein, there's a little that overlaps that way, you know, it's, it's all about him. He's only watching out for himself. He said he would watch out for us. Part of that was exposing these, these things that were covered up, but he's.

A (19:25)

Not willing to do that.

B (19:26)

And also he's spending all this time on the east wing, et cetera, et cetera. So, yeah, I think it fits in pretty well to a general sense that he's only out for himself, I think. Don't you think that's an important part of it?

A (19:36)

I do. Maybe we should just have a full secret podcast with you and me where we do like 1998 to 2006. Because maybe it's more Kulwinsky well, I kind of object to your claim that it was Katrina. I think that Myers had a bigger impact on the base than Katrina.

B (19:51)

That's a good point. But that was also out of the blue. There's the Supreme Court, there's a death, and suddenly there's another Supreme Court vacancy and he nominates his White House counsel who no one's ever heard of, basically. I mean, so that's also. You're right. I think that's a good instance. And it did fracture. I mean I was involved in that. It did fracture the base.

A (20:05)

So self correction. I was in my first job after college during Katrina, but it was not for the Bush administration. I was not in comms yet. I was begging my way into the comms department. So I hold no culpability.

B (20:16)

I withdraw. I retract my unfair implication. I haven't studied your CV in detail recently.

A (20:23)

I really bonus content for people which is me and Bill relive 2005 together and try to determine what the real downfall of Bush was. I'll give you a little behind the scenes here. They give me these prompts about how to start these ads and this one is about whether you're going to have a few drinks to celebrate your team winning. And obviously that's not a problem here in Louisiana at the moment since all of our teams are losing. But I'm bringing back my original home, Denver because we're hot. The Broncos are hot. Big win over the Chiefs. Nuggets are doing great. So instead of drinking on Saturdays now, maybe I'm just going to have to start drinking on Sundays. And before I do that, I'm going to turn to this game changing product called zebiotics. Zebiotics Pre Algae Probiotic Drink is world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration. That's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. I'm getting a little, I mean, we love Zbiotics. It's great. Appreciate their sponsorship. I'm getting a little bit concerned, though. You know, as a pundit in the commentary space, you know, sometimes people, people look at you and they, they only like, know a thing or two about you. And so, you know, if Derek Thompson or Ezra Klein are walking down the street, like, people might be like, abundance Bros, you know, and it's a little bit concerning to me that people are now saying to me, like, have you had your Zbiotics? When they see me at the bar. I appreciate a little inside joke and that it's nice to show that you're listening. We love all the listeners out there. I'm doing my best, but I don't know, maybe you can think about something else as well. Just tie in something else too. Make the most of every toast, tailgate and touchdown this holiday season. Just don't forget to bring pre alcohol along for the ride. Go to Zebatx the Bulwark to learn more and get 15% off your first order. When you use the Bulwark at checkout. Zeb Addicts is backed with a 100% money back guarantee. So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zebiotics.com thebullwerk and use code thebullwerk at checkout for 15% off. You know what? Let's just do this. I was going to save this at the end for dessert, but while we're, while we're feeling our oats, let's just keep on rolling. Let's talk about Marjorie Taylor Greene for a second. She was on CNN with Dana Bash this weekend. This is a longer clip than I usually play, but I want to play it all because I think that there is potentially much to unpack here. She's discussing. Trump called her Marjorie Trader Brown dude is losing his fastball. And the nicknames, I gotta tell you, after brown, in parentheses, he writes, you know, when grass rots, the green turns to brown. That's kind of feels like. And if you're explaining the joke, it's not a good joke type of situation here. So I don't, I don't know, it feels like grandpa's lost his fastball in the nicknames. But Green was saying, Marjorie Taylor Greene was saying that these sorts of attacks, like, were yielding real threats to her in real life. And she had hoax calls to her house and Dana Bash asked her about whether that gives her a change of heart about past rhetoric. And let's listen.

D (23:30)

We have seen these kinds of attacks.

A (23:32)

Or criticism from the president at other people. It's not new.

D (23:37)

And with respect, I haven't heard you speak out about it until it was directed at you. Dana, I think that's fair criticism. And I would like to say humbly, I'm sorry for taking part in the toxic politics. It's very bad for our country. And it's been something I've thought about a lot, especially since Charlie Kirk was assassinated, is that we. I'm only responsible for myself and my own words and actions. And I am going, I am committed, and I've been working on this a lot lately to put down the knives in politics. I really just want to see people be kind to one another. And we need to figure out a new path forward that is focused on the American people. Because as Americans, no matter what side of the aisle we're on, we have far more in common than we have differences.

A (24:38)

Boy. Saul to Damascus moment from Marjorie Taylor Greene. Maybe. Or maybe it's fake. I don't know. Does that matter? I wonder. What do you make of it? There are a couple of things I want to weigh in on, but I'm wondering what you think about the new Marjorie Taylor Greene.

B (24:56)

Yeah, I'm so stuck. I hadn't actually heard. I'd read of it, but I hadn't heard it. It's even more sort of, kind of amazing to actually hear it in her voice and everything.

A (25:07)

I see a lot of people talking about this, and I see more on the Internet, people saying things like, let's not whitewash her. Let's not, like, platform her. Let's not be fooled by her. And I see more of that than I see people actually whitewashing her. And to me, I look at this and it's like, isn't this what we want? I mean, maybe she's faking it. Maybe she will turn back in three weeks and be the crazy lady chasing down the high school kids that were at a school that got shot up and calling them crisis actors or doing whatever the most noxious thing you ever think she's ever did. Maybe she'll start doing that again in three weeks. And I don't think anyone would be surprised by that. We'd rightly criticize it, but I don't know. There's something to be said for the fact that when people break away from Trump on one thing, they start to see a lot of other things. Much more clearly because to kind of be inside the cult, you can't break on anything or anything of import. Right? And so you rationalize everything and then once you stop rationalizing one thing, it becomes a little harder to rationalize all the other stuff. And that de radicalization process is good and important and we're going to need that from people. And I fundamentally think people are redeemable and we want to try to encourage that and create a positive incentive structure for that. Right now in our world, there's just so much positive incentive structure for people to be as insane and nasty and conspiratorial as possible. Just look at the top podcast ranking. And so I creating an incentive structure for people going the other direction would be nice. And so I'm for it. I'm great on mtg. And it was the area maybe of my biggest disagreement with from on Friday's show. We were talking about Zoran. Not to compare MTG and so run but like the comparing the trajectory where he was. He was really dug in on like what Zoron was rapping about Jews in 2019, which seems not great to me. But I was trying to say, well, like, isn't it a good thing that he like when there was an anti Semitic attack recently felt like he had to do a tweet condemning it and that he's like changed his rhetoric around. Like, isn't that good? Isn't that what we want? Like, we want people so we can have a watchful eye that they backslide. Right. But we want people to do this. I don't know. I think that Marjorie Taylor Greene is a much better messenger for our desired outcome than like me or some establishment or Nikki Haley or some center right Republican. I think that it would be much better for Marjorie to say these things and maybe it won't land, but I think she has a better chance of getting it heard than other folks. So I'm for it.

B (27:43)

Yeah, no, I'm very much where you are. I just also think analytically. I mean this is. Yes, you say. I think once you break. Once you break a little more and one can hold her to her promise now to be more responsible. And then maybe she emboldened some others. I mean it doesn't take that many. She doesn't have to have 20% of the MAGA coalition follower, right? 5%, 8%. But I do think people need to start thinking that way. I very much agree with what you're saying. I was at some meeting recently and someone was talking about raising some money among kind of moderate donors. He was trying to do this to help Bill Cassidy in his primary challenge down there in Louisiana. I guess he's got some MAGA person.

A (28:20)

Running against him, a bunch of MAGA people. So it's a huge.

B (28:23)

Cassidy did vote for impeachment and so he deserves help. But someone else pointed out he also voted to confirm every single one of Trump's horrible nominees and has not voted a single blood. I don't believe in a single instance against Trump since he voted for impeachment, basically. And so why exactly are we going out of our way to say Bill Cassidy as opposed to being replaced by a more magga ish Republican who would vote exactly the same way? It's nice that he voted for impeachment and he deserves some praise for that. And I kind of agree. I mean, in a way, bolstering what Marjorie Taylor Greene is doing is probably more important. I'm just actually more important. Leave aside almost the morality of it or the what's right, though. I think there's some case to be made that's also the right thing to do, but I just think it's practically an important thing to do. So you should have her on. You should have her on. It'd be great.

A (29:08)

I want. We've invited her. I've invited her on the pod. I'd love to have her on.

B (29:11)

Didn't someone say, oh, she sounds like she'll be a bulwark person soon or something like that?

A (29:15)

Yeah, there was a smart ass, the rights of the Free Press tweeted that over Lincoln and I was like, great. I mean, wouldn't that be great? I don't understand. If the reputation of the Bulwark is that anybody that has decided to see Donald Trump clearly would want to be in league with us, then I wear that reputation with pride. You know, again, I would not do some like, hagiography of Marjorie Taylor Greene or I have her on and talk about how great she is. But like, but it's interesting to see what was the breaking point from her. Is there something we can learn? And to your point, like, she has been from the vote on impeachment through now, like Marjorie Taylor Greene has been much more constructive than Bill Cassidy. Doesn't mean that she's a good person or that she's without flaws, but like, Bill Cassidy's done nothing constructive. So just because they have a more moderate manner and sound a little bit more rational, that doesn't do any good. You're not serving any purpose by being a MAGA stooge. But just Sounding nicer about it. That actually is harmful. That actually is more harmful.

B (30:17)

I read this over the weekend. I can't remember who it was. Some student of authoritarianism, historian type. It was actually very interesting on this. It was not quite in the context of Cassidy, your child. The greatest, more general comment about the fact that these four Republicans were the ones who were causing all this grief for Trump. And I can't remember honestly who this was, but here she said this was a student of Italy in the twenties and Germany in the thirties. And all this said, actually this is the pattern. Once the moderate establishment types sign on, they stay signed on. It's hard for them to split. What's their sudden reason for splitting? They were reluctant and had all these reasons why they didn't want to support him at first. Once you to decide you're going to go along with it. They're kind of more loyal than the true believers in a funny way. Have their own issues. They believed in something. They realized maybe they were foolish to believe in something or they were foolish to put trust in this guy to carry out the agenda they thought they were believing in. And this person at least claimed that historically those are the people who often do defect first or are willing to do something difficult to defect. As I look, you got to Lauren Boebert, who was a. I don't know what she is exactly, strikes me as kind of a lunatic. But anyway, she was called into. Called into the White House, into the Situation Room and bludgeoned on Wednesday by Bondi and Patel, with Trump sort of in the background, I guess. I don't know if he felt he was physically there, but obviously at his direction. And she just hung tough. I mean I. And she could have said, I'm taking my name off the petition. Trump's promised me he's going to release more stuff, blah, blah, blah. Right. And so you gotta say that there's something there. I do think Epstein's a particular case too. I guess we slid over that a little. I mean, it is so repulsive. And a lot of stuff came out over the last several months that changed that made people see more clearly just how both how repulsive he was, his associates, how close Trump was to him, the birthday card and all that. But again, that was the case where no one knew. We didn't know that was gonna come out. People were demanding the files and then they also got the emails and then they got put pressure on the House overs. Then the Democrats released three emails and the Republicans said, oh, we're gonna really show you we're gonna release 20,000 emails that have all kinds of Democrats in them. But those 20,000 emails also included some bad stuff for Trump. Like Epstein saying that Trump knew about the girls. Right? I mean, life's full of ironies and bizarre things, right? That Epstein is going to be the thing that maybe really does a more lasting damage to Trump. But you know what? If it helps weaken the path towards authoritarianism, that's good.

A (32:44)

I agree. And I will defer to the historian and their historical expertise. I would just say in more my wheelhouse on the political considerations. Now, it would make sense that somebody with more of an actual authentic MAGA base would have the room to distance themselves from him. You know what I mean? Like the other guys are faking it, right? Like the people that were former establishment. John Thune. And what? Like John Thune is obviously faking it. Everybody knows he's faking it. He has no base of support. Nobody has John Thune tattoos or signs or fan clubs. There's not one. You know, like he is an establishment creature that has survived to become a mega establishment creature. And so if he distances from Trump on something, the bottom could fall out of his support, right? Like he could become Kevin McCarthy or one of these guys who are home alone with no friends. I don't know. I think Mary J. Taylor Green could survive this. Let's say Donald Trump endorses a primary opponent against her. If it was the inverse, if it was Brian Fitzpatrick or somebody who became the locus of Trump's ire and they put a MAGA person up against him, I would say that that person is probably going to win. Right? Like Trump would probably win with a MAGA person over an establishment person. Could Marjorie survive? Could she be the first person to actually survive separating from him? Because nobody else really has. And with love to all of our friends and Jeff Flake and Kinzinger and Cheney. Right. Like everybody. The distance ended up being out after, basically, except for the people at the distance and then went back and apologized, right? Like nobody has distanced and held their ground and survived. And a MAGA person could it just as a practical matter.

B (34:18)

Now, that's a good political analysis. Complimenting the historical analysis. I'd also make a psychological. You make this point in the book? I think so. You should ask you about this. I mean, psychologically, isn't it? Scott Jennings is going to spend the entire next week attacking, finding ways to minimize the importance of the Epstein files or pointing out the Democrats are mentioned in the Epstein. Oh, you guys wanted this. And now you're going to get all these Democrats mentioned in a way that I think an actual MAGA person who cared about the Epstein thing, it was maybe deluded in a lot of aspects. QAnon and all this, God knows, isn't going to rationalize.

A (34:52)

Yeah, no, the point is just you're performing and it's always a performance because you didn't believe it. It's fake. Scott Jennings, it's fake. What he's doing is he's doing a show. He's a WWE character. And so, okay, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Steve Bannon are both WWE characters in a way as well. They're faking it at times for everybody. All politicians are faking at times for attention, but their entire character isn't fake. They have an authentic character with some authentic views about populist nationalism that they believe in and then they at various times do whatever, play games in order to stay in Trump's good graces. If you're a free market Reaganite Republican who has gone full maga, your whole character is fake. And so how could you determine where to separate in ways that or ways that are sensible? Hey y', all, we want to hear from you. What do you like of our offerings? I mean, besides me of course. How do you watch or listen? Where are you tuning in from? In the show notes, you'll find a link to an audience survey we're conducting to help us get a better sense of who you are and get your feedback on our shows. We're cooking up some great plans for 2026 and this feedback is going to be invaluable. So please grab the link in the show notes. Thanks advance for your feedback and it's okay. If you like somebody better than me, you can tell us Immigration Operation Charlotte's Web started in Charlotte this weekend. I want to talk about Charlotte's Web in a second, but just the facts of what is happening on the ground there. Charlotte observer this is doing a great live blog if people want to follow along. Two days of mass Federal Border Patrol agents in the area led to more arrests. At the time I looked it was 80 plus, but obviously that's continuing to go up. Community concern around the region. No indication of when this will end, North Carolina Governor Josh Stein said. We've seen masked, heavily armed agents and paramilitary garb driving unmarked cars, targeting American citizens based on their skin color, racially profiling and picking up random people in parking lots and off of our sidewalks, going after landscapers, simply decorating a Christmas tree in someone's front yard and entering Churches and stores to grab people. That's the governor, Democratic governor of North Carolina. And on social media, I saw a couple of videos. One of a citizen, a US Citizen who looked Hispanic, getting his truck windows bashed in. After. It was like one group of agents had already checked his id and then he got back to the car and a separate group of agents came up. And even after he'd already been demonstrated he was a citizen, they still bashed his truck window in. And then there was another video going around of this manhunt through the woods because there was somebody selling flowers on the side of the street to cars. And agents pulled up and the flower salesman started running. And so they're chasing them through the woods. Crazy insane. Who was calling for this? Nobody in Charlotte. Not the governor, not the mayor. And obviously it's similar to what we've seen in other cities, but it's a notable escalation.

B (37:55)

Yeah, that's the one thing where in a normal political calculation, you'd think Trump might be thinking this mass deportation stuff. I mean, some of it, it is okay for people if they're. The percentages of criminals are now like in the 2% range that they're actually taking and people are really, put correctly, you know, it's grotesque what's happening. I think people just think it's wrong and not right and not America and so forth. And then let's, let's just go to another city and provide more video of us, of our Border Patrol agents doing it. And incidentally, it's not on the border. Of course, as I think you pointed out on Twitter, it's not even within 100 miles of the. Of, I don't think of the Atlantic, which is the sort of fake way they justify using the Border Patrol agents in coastal cities on the west and East Coast.

A (38:36)

You know, Charlotte's more inland than you realize. It's a good three and a half hour drive to the beach from Charlotte.

B (38:41)

Yeah, it's like 150 miles inland, I think I read. So, yeah. So, I mean, anyway. But they somehow just decided to send the Border Patrol guys there along with ICE and everyone else. I. No, it's really. You watch it. You almost can't believe it, honestly. Well, you do believe it now, unfortunately.

A (38:55)

But.

B (38:55)

But again, this is a case where I think it's hurting Trump, but he seems to really have convinced himself to double down on this. It's kind of funny when you think of it.

A (39:03)

They're pot committed, I think to crush a poker metaphor to death. But like, they have all this funding, you know, that they jammed through in the bill for ice, it is central to Trump's brand. Stephen Miller is as a true believer in this. I think Kristi Noem, Sarah made this point, the next level, I think last week or two weeks ago. I hadn't really considered that like Kristi Noem, to the extent that she thinks she is a fug future as a vice presidential or presidential candidate, does not want to be seen as like the weak link on the deportation campaign. Where is the person that is in there that's going to stop it? Susie Wiles? Like, nobody. She doesn't have any. Like who. Who would slow it down. Frankly, they haven't even been able to like deploy the funding that they have yet. Right. So it's. To me, it seems much more likely that it escalates and de. Escalates. And if we are right about his precarious political position, it seems to me likely that they would think that escalating it would be better than backing down.

B (40:03)

Yeah, I mean, he's surrounded by people. I don't know what he thinks about this stuff. I guess he doesn't. I mean, he seems happy to preside over it and he's obviously morally and politically accountable for all this behavior. But he also has people obviously in there. That creep who's running the Border Patrol and others who. I mean, Tom Holman, who actually is very bad in my opinion, but is a little more like a guy who's been in that business for 25 years.

A (40:25)

Years.

B (40:25)

And is a little more professional even. He's like, what is going on? You get the impression. Right. I mean, but Miller and these guys are way. And the white nationalist stuff and the ads and the recruitment ads for ice, I mean, that is part of this MAGA coalition that is much bigger than people realized and much more radicalized than people realized and has continued to radicalize over the course of the last nine, 10 months. It's bad for the country, Very bad for the country and bad for those people who are being treated horribly. Obviously. I do think it hurts his political coalition, though. That is one where some of the normie Republicans think the business types and all know, but also to be fair, some of the MAGA Republicans who I don't like and agree with, who are, you know, America first, who are anti Israel, who are, you know, all kinds of anti Ukraine, who have all kinds of views that I think are pretty bad, but they didn't quite sign on for this, I don't think. Right, right.

A (41:15)

Yeah. And a lot of the non Political just kind of culturally. Right. You know, kind of bro that didn't like woke and they didn't like the COVID masks and stuff that went on with them. And they're like, what? I, I, we're chasing a guy selling flowers on the street through the woods. Like this is like it's, you know, we're in the Sopranos. Like what? Why? Who is this survey.

B (41:35)

And they're busting into, it sounds like into churches. Am I right about that? Or at least onto the lawns of churches where there were.

A (41:41)

Yeah, it seems like they're going near churches that are, you know, whatever span have Spanish speaking masses, et cetera. In the Charlotte Live blog, I should just say that the Catholic Archdiocese of Charlotte or whatever the region is said that they've not seen it at their churches yet, but that the governor said it and at least some examples of it. And the other thing that they're apparently doing, obviously it's a category difference to go in or around a church. I mean, like if anywhere should be a sanctuary, it should be a church. But they're also going to grocery stores that serve ethnic foods, that sort of thing. And just going into the stores where they sell whatever about Latin food or Asian food. And it's like, this is crazy. Like what? There's not probable cause. Like purchasing the right spices that you need to serve a dish from your home country is not reasonable suspicion to being harassed by a masked agent in a free country. Sorry, the EB White of it I just wanted to mention because I thought this was very powerful. Chris Geidner is a friend of mine, wrote about this. He covers legal issues. You can go check out his substack. We'll put a link in here. But He's a big E. E.B. white fan and he's like to call this Charlotte's Web. They think it's cute and funny. And the little midget guy that runs the cpvino tweeted a quote from the book when they announced going to Charlotte. There's this great essay I think folks should read. It was written by E.B. white in 1940 titled Freedom. And it was about the growing affinity he was seeing for European fascists when they were kind of on the march. It was just one little paragraph I'm going to read. The least a man can do at such a time is to declare himself and tell where he stands. I believe in freedom with the same burning delight, the same faith, the same intense abandon which attended its birth on this continent more than a century and a half ago. I'M in love with freedom. And that is an affair of longstanding and that is a fine state to be in. And that I am deeply suspicious of people who are beginning to adjust to fascism and dictators merely because they are succeeding from such adaptable natures. A smell rises. I pinch my nose. I thought folks would enjoy that. I enjoyed reading it. And among the. Among the affronts from this administration, I guess Sullying Eby Wright's legacy is maybe not at the top, but still sucks and is worth reminding folks what he actually advocated for.

B (43:59)

Yeah, totally. I mean, such a classic American liberal, I think he was. And I mean his own politics were kind of Roosevelt New Deal and then in 1940 he writes. Yeah, I also somewhat call my attention to that. To what? Chris Geidner. Is that his name? Yeah. Lord Orc, I think is his substack or whatever. Yeah, it was great that he caught that. I'd see. Seen that maybe years ago, actually quoted somewhere. But they can't resist being cute and trying to appropriate something that they think. I guess they don't know anything. Right. They think it's clever to have Char to quote Charlotte's Web and that no one's going to call them on it. But I don't know. I don't think people who like Charlotte's Web, which is a charming story as I vaguely remember it, I really like going around and seizing people who are decorating Christmas trees and trying to deport them, you know, separate them from their families and deport them them.

A (44:45)

Yeah, it doesn't really seem to be in the spirit of the book now. You had Hertling, who's now officially a member of the Bulwark family, by the way, officially military analyst for us, which is so happy to have him. And he'll be back on the pod soon. You had him on the Sunday live stream that you're doing on Substack. A trio should check out sign up for the bulk on Substack. And he was just discussing what was happening with Venezuela. People should listen to the whole thing. We're just wondering if you have any. Any reactions to that conversation and what you think the state of play is.

B (45:14)

I mean, he's pretty alarmed that if we do use military force, we haven't thought it through and that we may well use military force at the Once you get this. And in fact we did it live, but then it's obviously on YouTube live at noon yesterday. And after that last night, I guess Secretary of State Marco Rubio, your friend, announced that he was designated a New Venezuelan foreign terrorist organization continuing to try to. Which he says Maduro's in charge of. So he's trying to lay the groundwork for that connection, justifying blowing up the boats, but also doing stuff inland in Venezuela. And the USS Ford, I think our largest aircraft carrier, most modern one at least, is now in the Caribbean Sea. So it's quite possible there'll be military action. I got to think if, to the degree Trump's getting beaten up, Wag the Dog is used too often as a kind of always wagging the dog. But having said that, this could be a case where I wouldn't put it past them. And I mean. But again, we're going to bomb Venezuela with no congressional authorization, but not even any public debate, discussion, explanation, rationale, what it. You know, I mean, it's all plan. Plan. Yeah. This is a case where there is parts of the MAGA coalition, not the parts that you and I agree with particularly, I think are kind of genuinely isolationist, genuinely America First. America first is not about bombing Venezuela. Whatever you think of America first, it's about, like, keep defending our borders. Maybe it's about a little bit of targeted stuff to keep stuff away from our borders. And once you start these bombing campaigns, too, it's not like you control how things play out. And suddenly maybe you do have to send troops in or there are other threats or. I mean, I think, yes, this is. I mean, it's bad for the country, believe me, that he's doing this. And any sense of having allies in Central and Latin America, which is sort of a good thing to have, generally speaking, in your atmosphere, that's going to go out the window for quite a while. The bullying only goes so far, you know, but. So it's very bad for the country. I don't know. Does this help Trump politically, this kind of thing?

A (47:03)

I think it hurts him more. Yeah. I think it's a total misread if they think that that could be a successful distraction for the point you lay out. I think kind of the softest underbelly of his coalition are people that were late to maga, that are not meaningfully, like, cultural. They're not evangelical conservatives. They were attracted to the idea that they're not for the wars. And I just. I don't know that any of them are going to want to be doing spin for an attack on Venezuela, though Maduro didn't. Didn't really help his cause. Singing John Lennon's Imagine. I saw that video going around, kind of a poor rendition and off key and both elements.

B (47:42)

You got a problem with John Lennon, now you're going to attack boomers next? I mean, come on. You know, that was deeply moving for some of us. Okay, it wasn't. It wasn't actually. It wasn't actually. That was cloying. But I'm willing to believe it was moving for some people, though.

A (47:57)

For some people, yeah, Deeply cloying, I would say. Final Bill wisdom. And this is like the third topic I've said this about. We can do a full hour on at a later date. But I do want to mention it because you're writing various lessons from what we learned about from the Epstein files in the newsletter. And most of them were about the thing that we focus the most on, which is how it can be used for the acute problem of dealing with the current president who as taking us on an authoritarian trajectory. But there's something else to be seen in these Epstein emails, which is just how gross the elite, and I hate even using this phrase, the ruling class. I'm not a populist fighter. This does not come naturally to me. But I don't know what else to call that in these elite circles. The emails back and forth. I talked about this last week there, Alex Wagner, these sad old men asking Epstein for advice about things and scratching backs. And the one that just jumps to mind right now, it was an email where Larry Summers was running Harvard and he was asking Epstein for advice on a relationship. And then Epstein writes back to say that the child of. I don't want to get the family wrong, but it was like the Rockefellers or one of these big families, famous rich families, blue blood families, wants to have a tour of Harvard. Could you give that to them? The whole thing is, is just gross. And you can understand why people are grossed out by it. There was a Times article talking about how this is like a time capsule to this other era. And the time capsule is letting us know this other era was sick and depraved. And so you write in the newsletter. So for those of us who'd prefer centrist policies, we need centrist candidates that are also credibly anti elitist. There'll be no market for a return to the good old days of the Clintons and their lives. Like, not when they can be found next to Trump in the Epstein files canon. I think that is right, like a variety of reasons. And also it's not just about Epstein. It's also related to like the issues of the Democratic Party brand. And as I said, this does not like, come natural to me, per se. But I just think as an objective analytical manner like that is critical for if you care about advancing a more center left agenda within the Democratic Party, you need to figure out a way to do it that goes into at these gross elites.

B (50:25)

Yeah, I mean I think my only caveat would be if I maybe should have added a sentence saying obviously there were parts of the elite who aren't gross and they can certainly be the representative of objecting to this. There are people who didn't consort with Epstein. There's retired military generals who lived very honorable lives and many, many other people as well, including business figures and stuff. But they would have to really, in my view going forward for the Democrats, they would have to distinguish themselves from those other people. And it can't just be a generalized good old days, you know, Clintons, et cetera. And I mean if not only can't it be that they really need to be against that and if the centrists don't step up and be and show that they're willing to take this on both in sort of personal moral ways almost, but also in terms of some policies, then it will be MAMDANI and AOC and you know what I mean, who's going to blame people for voting for them at that point? When you look at the Epstein thing, you've got to. It's just so nauseating that no, it's going to. I mean some of the social democratic stuff is sensible. I think actually at this point given wealth inequalities and all these other things, but a lot more of it that isn't very sensible will get dragged in if there aren't centrists. Now to be fair, I think there are people. Abigail Spanberger and Mike Sherrill are basically centrist Democrats because of their personal background. I think it's very hard to see them as being in Epstein world and they weren't. I mean they were in the CIA and in the military for one thing. They're women, honestly, which is nothing. I think going forward. My contrary point is that every Democrat I've talked to in the last eight months says well the one thing we're not going to do in 2028 is nominate a woman is look what happened with Hillary and look what happened with Kamala. I don't know. I mean the Epstein thing, I really wonder whether they shouldn't just navigate Spanberger and Cheryl and tweak. They tweak their policy agenda to be a little more populous, honestly in terms of economics and they'll be great. They'll win 40 states.

A (52:21)

Yeah. Or maybe different type of a woman with different type of candidate skills. But that might be a conversation for another day. I want to leave it with Social Democrat Bill for people. People love woke Bill Kristol and they're really going to love Social Democratic Bill Kristol. Everybody else, we'll be back in next Monday. Who knows what positions I'll be taking exactly. Let her desperate.

B (52:45)

I'm against that. I'm against.

A (52:46)

We'll be back tomorrow. Yeah, I don't want to be in one of these situations where it was like Nick Fuente's telling Tucker that he was a Stalin acolyte and then Tucker being like, we'll get back around to that actually later. No, to be clear, no Stalin or Landon acolytes here. We'll be back tomorrow with another edition of the podcast. It'll be a good one. We'll see you all then. Peace.

E (53:07)

Visions of Martin Luther staring at me Malcolm X put the hex on my future someone catch me I'm falling victim to a revolutionary song the Serengeti's clone back to put you backstabbers back on your spinal bone you slit your dis when I slit you my dis you wanted to dis but jumped on my dick Grown man never should bite they tongue unless you eating that smell like it's a stale plum I got my finger on the pistol aiming it at the pig Charlotte's web is going to miss you my issue was in televised and you ain't gotta tell the wise how to stay on beat because our life's an instrumental this is physical and mental I won't sugarcoat it you'll die from diabetes if these other niggas wrote it and everything on TV just a figment of imagination I don't wanna fascination dread that like a Haitian why you motherfuckers waiting? I be off the slave ship building pyramids writing my own hieroglyphs Just call this shit hybrid power nigga. Nothing less than high power. Five star dishes food for thought bitches. I mean this is Huey Newton going stupid. You can't resist his high power. Throw your hands up for high power. Visions of Martin Luther staring at me if I see it how he seen it that will make my parents happy. Sorry mama, I can't turn the other cheek. They want to knock me off the edge like a floor fucking widow peak on and she always told me pray for the week on them demons got me I ain't prayed in some weeks Dear Lord, come save me the devil's working on he probably clocking double shifts so none of his jobs.

A (54:41)

The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.