Bill Kristol: Has Trump Trapped Himself?

Summary

The Bulwark Podcast: "Bill Kristol: Has Trump Trapped Himself?" – Episode Summary

Release Date: July 14, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Kristol

In this compelling episode of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller engages in a deep and insightful conversation with political commentator Bill Kristol. The discussion touches upon several pressing political issues, including the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, immigration policies, trade tariffs, and foreign policy dynamics, particularly concerning Ukraine. The episode offers a nuanced analysis of these topics, presenting diverse perspectives and expert insights.

1. Introduction and Light Banter (00:00 – 04:00)

The episode begins with Tim Miller sharing his recent vacation experiences, highlighting the Oasis reunion in Manchester, England. Bill Kristol engages warmly, drawing parallels to memorable personal experiences, such as witnessing the iconic 1975 Fenway Park game. This light-hearted exchange sets a personable tone for the ensuing serious discussions.

2. The Jeffrey Epstein Scandal and Its Implications (04:00 – 31:24)

Epstein's Legacy and Trump's Involvement

Bill Kristol provides a comprehensive overview of the ongoing Epstein scandal, emphasizing the ramifications of Jeffrey Epstein's connections, particularly with former President Donald Trump. He notes, "Trump was a good friend of Epstein," and critiques the initial 2008 plea deal Epstein received, describing it as "a total disgrace" (04:33).

Justice Department's Handling and Public Perception

Kristol criticizes the Trump administration's Justice Department for their minimalistic statement on Epstein, stating, "They give him a plea deal in 08...you don't get a comprehensive explanation" (05:24). This lack of transparency, according to Kristol, has fueled skepticism and conspiracy theories, especially within the MAGA base.

Impact on the MAGA Movement

The conversation delves into how the Epstein revelations have been co-opted by the MAGA movement, intertwining with QAnon theories and enhancing distrust in governmental institutions. Tim Miller highlights the potential political vulnerabilities this presents for the MAGA base, suggesting that the legitimacy of their conspiracy theories is at risk (08:50).

Victims' Perspectives and Lack of Acknowledgment

Kristol underscores the absence of empathy towards Epstein's victims from Trump and the administration. He remarks, "They have one half sentence in that two-page memo about doing justice to the victims. But in their actual statements... there's nothing about that" (30:17). This omission reflects a troubling disregard for the victims, further tarnishing the administration's moral standing.

3. Immigration Policies and Federal Actions (31:24 – 43:08)

Federal Deployment in Los Angeles

Tim Miller draws attention to a recent controversial deployment of federal officers and the California National Guard in Los Angeles' MacArthur Park. Describing the scene as "a city under siege," Kristol criticizes the heavy-handed approach, noting, "Los Angeles is not on the border" and questioning the rationale behind such deployments (34:42).

ICE Enforcement and Detention Centers

The discussion shifts to the inefficiencies and human rights concerns surrounding ICE's operations. Kristol highlights cases of wrongful detentions and the blending of detainees without criminal charges with violent offenders, asserting that "they're picking up 70-year-old people" and others "violently detained for several days" (40:20).

Political and Economic Implications

Miller introduces the notion that immigration policies, particularly the allocation of funds towards detention centers over affordable housing, present a political opportunity for Democrats. Kristol agrees, emphasizing the misallocation of resources: "spending four times as much on prisons as you are on housing for people" (44:18).

4. Trade Policies and Tariffs (43:08 – 52:07)

Trump's Tariffs on Europe and Brazil

Tim Miller and Bill Kristol critique President Trump's recent imposition of reciprocal tariffs, notably the 50% tariff on Brazil. They question the legal basis and rationale behind these measures, with Kristol pointing out the incongruity of imposing tariffs on a nation with which the U.S. maintains a trade surplus: "We've had a surplus with Brazil for 18 years. How do you live with yourself?" (50:50).

Congressional Authority and Legal Concerns

Kristol discusses the potential for congressional intervention, stating, "Congress could stop the Brazil tariff" and "pass a law saying you can't use IRA" (51:24). He underscores the misuse of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify these tariffs, highlighting the disconnect between executive actions and legislative oversight.

Economic Impact and Market Resilience

While acknowledging the economic strains these tariffs could impose, Kristol notes the U.S. economy's resilience: "these things, they're slightly overhyped in a way...it's not going to matter much" (47:32). However, he warns of emerging vulnerabilities that could affect long-term economic stability.

5. Foreign Policy and Ukraine (52:07 – 57:35)

U.S. Support for Ukraine

The conversation shifts to the United States' evolving stance on Ukraine amid ongoing conflicts. Kristol views the potential provision of new weapons to Ukraine as "good, but too little, too late" (53:06). He reflects on the nuanced interplay between supporting international allies and managing domestic political repercussions.

Trump's Diplomatic Conduct

Kristol critiques Trump's unconventional diplomatic approach, contrasting it with that of other world leaders. He observes, "Zelensky puts on a suit and sucks up to Trump...perhaps that works" (56:01), suggesting that while Trump may make incremental progress, his methods remain unorthodox and unpredictable.

6. Closing Remarks and Final Thoughts (57:35 – 60:32)

As the podcast nears its conclusion, both hosts reflect on the broader implications of the discussed topics. Kristol emphasizes the erosion of the rule of law and the dangers of unchecked executive power. Tim Miller summarizes the precarious state of American politics, underscoring the urgency of addressing these multifaceted challenges.

Notable Quotes

• Bill Kristol (04:33): "The initial 2008 plea deal Epstein received was a total disgrace."
• Bill Kristol (05:24): "They don't get a comprehensive explanation... fuels skepticism and conspiracy theories."
• Tim Miller (08:50): "The legitimacy of your conspiracy theories is at risk."
• Bill Kristol (30:17): "There's nothing about [doing justice to the victims] in their actual statements."
• Bill Kristol (44:18): "Spending four times as much on prisons as you are on housing for people."
• Bill Kristol (50:50): "We've had a surplus with Brazil for 18 years. How do you live with yourself?"
• Bill Kristol (53:06): "Good, but too little, too late."

Conclusion

This episode of The Bulwark Podcast offers a thorough examination of significant political issues shaping the contemporary landscape. Through the lens of Bill Kristol, listeners gain a critical perspective on the Trump administration's handling of the Epstein scandal, immigration enforcement, trade policies, and foreign relations. The dialogue underscores the intricate interplay between political decisions, legal frameworks, and public perception, providing listeners with a nuanced understanding of these complex topics.

Transcript

[Bill Kristol]

Foreign.

[Tim Miller]

Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. I'm lightly tanned, unrested, unready, but I'm going to make it through on some Oasis endorphins. And it's Monday, so I'm here with Bill Crystal who can carry me on a post vacation hangover. How you doing, Bill?

[Bill Kristol]

I'm fine. How was your vacation, Tim? How was Oasis?

[Tim Miller]

Oasis was so incredible. It was biblical, as they say. Mad for was really something. You know, they were on a 16 year hiatus. We were in their hometown of Manchester. Very few Yanks there. As soon as I opened my eyes.

[Bill Kristol]

Manchester, England, not Manchester, New Hampshire. Yeah, some of us are very parochial. You know, I spent a lot of.

[Tim Miller]

Time in Manchester, New Hampshire, let me tell you. I could tell you about the bar scene there. It's pretty rough. It was my first time in Manchester, England, which has kind of like a British Detroit feel to it, known as working, you know, industrial towns. It's kind of being revitalized and we were out in their big, you know, city park, Heaton park and 80,000 people, all these limeys knew every word to every song, the B sides, the everything. They came out and it was, I had British strangers hugging me. It was really, it was really quite the experience going to see the Oasis reunion in Manchester. So that was good. Madrid was, was great. Amsterdam going from the Spanish to the British with the Dutch in between. I felt like I was whispering the whole time in Amsterdam like they're. It's one of the most, much more modest people in Amsterdam. But it was, it was wonderful. I have to warn the audience. Might be a two week vacation next year. I could have done a couple more days, but it was really good. How are things here?

[Bill Kristol]

Well, it was tough without you. We held down the fort, actually. We seems to have done pretty well. I did the podcast with our friend Cam Caskey there. You're in your absence and I went pretty well. Has he talked to you?

[Tim Miller]

He has. I was worried about that one.

[Bill Kristol]

The fact that you're going to have, you're going to be moved aside a bit and it's going to be, you know, the grandfather relationship is really, is a good with the 24 year old.

[Tim Miller]

One of the original name ideas, one I still kind of like the best frankly for Fypod was Boomer Zoomer. And so you could just move me out and have it officially be Boomer Zoomer.

[Bill Kristol]

It's your. You and he. You and he have a lot to talk about. But like Oasis, I called him like.

[Tim Miller]

An older brother on the way to the airport. And I was like, I'm not going to have my vacation screwed up because you do something crazy with. So behave. So I'm glad to hear it worked.

[Bill Kristol]

He behaved. And then we had an interesting week in politics, culminating with Epstein this past weekend and Oasis sounds great. Yeah, I don't know what to read. Oasis. Like, I don't really. Hugging strangers.

[Tim Miller]

You don't know. Wonderwall. You don't know.

[Bill Kristol]

Hugging strangers. Hugging strangers at some big. In a big event. I don't know. I'm not really big on that. Last time I think I hugged a stranger was in. In Fenway park in 1975 when Carl and Fisk hit the walk off home run in the 12th inning of the sixth game. The greatest moment I've ever seen in baseball. And everyone in Fenway park was hugging each other. So that's my Oasis, you know, my oasis is the World Series 50 years ago.

[Tim Miller]

Noel walking back out to the hometown telling them that don't look back in anger is up next was kind of like the Carlton Fisk, I think, of the moment. So that's great.

[Bill Kristol]

It was great that you had a good time.

[Tim Miller]

Folks can, yeah, look at my Instagram if they want to. Just see me in pure bliss. But now not as pure bliss, I guess though we had some good things happened, it seems like. Well, actually, let me ask you, what did I miss the most? I did this. I read nothing. I read nothing. Anytime I would receive a text from someone about something and I would admonish them to not follow up, I didn't want any more information. I was essentially totally black with a few bad apples like Tommy Vitor texting me. And other than that, I was black. So what did I miss? What was the most important thing you think that happened?

[Bill Kristol]

It's a good question. I don't know. There was a lot of news. I have to go back and look at morning shots to see what we all covered. I mean, Epstein took it over beginning around a little bit Sunday with the. Which was right after you left with the release of the joint Justice Department FBI statement. But then when Trump butted into a question on Tuesday at the Cabinet meeting and took the question that was intended for Bondi, really, and said, why is everyone who care about Epstein is so ridiculous? He's a dead guy. Whatever he said, I mean, that did drive the MAGA base. And then a lot of people I'd include myself in this said, you know what? What is going on here? And is there like a reason why we know a little more about what this horrendous, grotesque, horrible sex criminal did over. Over years. And he was a friend of Trump's and we could talk more about that. Sarah and I did this little podcast on Saturday afternoon, kind of last minute. Epstein was in the news. We both had opinions about it, which were that it was a legitimate issue. Basically that's. But we, neither of us had followed it at all closely. We're not really into conspiracy theories, so we did this 20 minute thing. No, you know, not on a regular slot or anything like that, obviously. Saturday afternoon. I just looked at it this morning. Seems to have gotten over half a million views. Honestly, it was fine. It was fine, but it wasn't like scintillating. Brilliant, hilarious, you know, insightful. Nothing you could not know otherwise. And then I did this thing with Julie Brown, the really fantastic reporter who broke the story again and forced, in a way the second indictment of Epstein in 2019, when she wrote these pieces for the Miami Herald in 2018. And that's gotten also a lot of attention. And what that tells me is these are not MAGA people, I'm going to guess, watching the bulwark, watching me and Sarah. Right. Our people, if I could put it this way, are interested in it. It is a very interesting. Horrible in many ways, of course, but I mean, interesting story about many things. Our criminal justice system, our elites, Trump, New York financiers, unfortunately, sex trafficking. So anyway, I'm now slightly obsessed with Epstein.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, great. I've been there for a while, so I was happy.

[Bill Kristol]

Is that right? Oh, good for you.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, it's nice. You had an eight day catch up. I did a Julie Brown interview. She is great. And I was happy you did the Sunday show. We did it back when I was doing the next level Sunday interviews, which feels like a lifetime ago, so it must have been two or three years ago. And I'll put a link to the show notes that just was kind of like, there's something weird here still. And I was like you, I hadn't been paying that close of attention to it and I was like, I want you to educate me, basically. And so it was long form, kind of went into the origin story. She talked about the victims a lot and we talked a little bit about the Trump of it at the time. So if people are just catching up and want to kind of get that backstory. Julie K. Brown has been the reporter on this. I'll put the link in the notes here. But the Trump part of it has continued to nag at me for a while mostly, I mean, partly because of the troll, but also just because of the. It is pretty wild. I mean the coincidences are pretty extreme. And the death suicide, if you will, did happen when Trump was president. And so I was more obsessed with kind of the meta narrative about this. How did this become a right wing coded conspiracy theory? Trump was friends with the guy Acosta, who was in his cabinet, gave him the sweetheart deal initially. He died under the Bill Barr Justice Department. There are also some Bill Barr connections to Epstein. Maybe there's nothing here, but if there is something here, it's related to Trump. The comparison I have now to this situation that I'm wondering how you'll react to this is that it's a little reminiscent of the Harriet Myers thing from the beginning of the Bush second term where. And maybe it's just the Laura Ingraham clip I'm about to play you because I remember Laura Ingraham being very, going very hard against Bush in turn two over the Harriet Myers thing and essentially the right wing media kind of asserting itself and saying that he'd gone soft. Trump has never experienced that and he's experiencing this now. We're in day eight since that memo came out. Here's a little audio mashup I put together from the Turning Point USA Festival this weekend that includes Laura Ingram and Dave Smith and Charlie Kirk and some others. Let's just take a listen. I will not rest until we go full Jan6 committee on the Jeffrey Epstein Ferguson files. And every single client.

[Bill Kristol]

That was associated.

[Tim Miller]

With this thing has an FBI agent.

[Bill Kristol]

At their door on their phone going after them the same way they went after the Jan Sixers and the peaceful.

[Tim Miller]

Patriots and the praying grandmothers that were on those steps. That's how we should go after every single person that was in the client list. How many of you are satisfied? You can, you can clap. Satisfied with the results of the Epstein investigation? Clap.

[Bill Kristol]

Okay.

[Tim Miller]

I told you to clap. You guys aren't listening. I'm not going to grade you on a curve. So I was going to get to that. How many of you are not satisfied with the results of the investigation? I think the DOJ should immediately move to unseal all the Epstein documents in the Southern District of New York. Yeah, everything.

[Bill Kristol]

Listen, guys, I'm a free American.

[Tim Miller]

I supported Donald Trump in this last election. Yes, he did just actively cover up a giant child rapist ring and I'm.

[Bill Kristol]

Going to criticize him for that. Okay?

[Tim Miller]

I mean the crowd reaction is notable.

[Bill Kristol]

It is striking. So I Mean, I think people like me, I want to say Ross probably didn't pay as much attention to this once it became such a part of MAGA world conspiracy theories. How that happened. I agree. Given that Trump is the guy who was so friendly with Epstein. There's all the video, Trump praised him in 2002, et cetera. How that happened maybe has to do with QAnon and they were so obsessed with the massive pedophile activity at the highest levels of the US Government and Pizzagate and all. Once Epstein reemerges, thanks to Julie Brown, who is not a MAGA type, but thanks to her really courageous reporting and indefatigable reporting against many obstacles and sadly. And it gets revolutionized. Indicted, recharged in 2019 and then dies. And then Maxwell's charged in 2021, I think, and convicted. Somehow that was fine. But that was different from the MAGA world obsession with it, which I do think was. Don't you think probably QAnon related and sort of.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean, obviously that there was a tie between the kind of QAnon elements of this and that Trump was one stopping the pedophile rings and the Hill and the pizza gate and then.

[Bill Kristol]

Biden's president and nothing. They indict upstate. Nothing which happens. And then.

[Tim Miller]

And Maxwell.

[Bill Kristol]

And Maxwell, I mean, I'm sorry, they indict Maxwell, not Epstein. Epstein's dead at this point and convict her. But I will say this, just now that I've looked at it and talked to Julie especially, I don't know if you have a massive, I kind of, whoever it was on that audio, if you have a massive conspiracy, two people get charged. I mean, they're the only people who knew what was going on or the only people who helped make it happen. There was money sloshing around, there were arrangements being made galore. Now, not every person who I don't know flew Epstein's plane necessarily knew what it was for and maybe said you wouldn't go necessarily charge all those people. But there are a heck of a lot of middle level, upper middle management people in this conspiracy, as there are in others, incidentally. Think about Madoff, think about these others. My impression is I've researched this honestly, but more than one person gets charged in these cases. Sometimes they turn state's evidence. They get, maybe they don't get punished as severely, but they're just kind of, you know, didn't quite understand what was happening. Maybe. But anyway, a lot of that didn't come out. And the original deal in 2008 was a total disgrace. And so the notion that the elites took care of themselves, the elites didn't want this rock to turn over this rock too much. They reluctantly went after, I think how reluctant it was. They went after this repulsive creep. They give him a plea deal in 08. By 06, I think they felt they couldn't ignore it or so much talk about it. They give him a plea deal in 08, Julie Brown personally gets them to finally indict him again. Ten years later, he dies. And then they do Maxwell, they get her convicted, and then it's all just dropped. And I don't know, maybe all these guys didn't know. They didn't know how old the girls were. They didn't realize they were being sex trafficked. They just thought this was kind of a thing that happens in elite circles in New York and Palm Beach. It's minimally, unbelievably. Well, creepy is not even the word. I mean, just horrible and hard to believe. There weren't charges that could have been brought against those people. Now, maybe they couldn't prove them. It's whatever prosecutorial judgments. So that's one side. So I think what's happened, if you want the Harriet Myers analogy, the right turned on Myers because they thought she was a squish sort of on abortion and other issues. People like me and David Frum criticized Myers a lot, and I think probably made it more legitimate, in a sense, for some of the more moderate Republican senators to say, we're not going along with this because we just thought she wasn't up to the position. It wasn't appropriate for us as a Supreme Court nominee. And so the equivalent I'd say was this is magus going after Trump, which causes trouble in Trump's base, which is good politically. But also I do think a lot of people ask, say this about myself, you know, sort of been reawakened. It's just how much of an outrage the whole thing is. And then the Justice Department, it's Trump's Justice Department, so we should stipulate that. I'll come back to that in a sec. But the Justice Department of the United States puts out a 1 1/2 page statement with the FBI that just says that. Nothing to see here, doesn't explain. I mean, I was thinking about this Comey and Tillery, let's go back to emails for a minute. So he decided not to prosecute. But you know what? It was a big story. It was a big concern. And he put out a statement. He had a press Conference. He explained. People didn't like the explanation. They did like it, whatever. But I mean, it was like they felt some obligation to explain to the public why they were doing a certain set of things in this very controversial and a case that had a lot of attention. Nothing of that here. So even if it weren't the Trump Justice Department, it's kind of bad, I think. And of course, Trump was a very good friend of Epstein. We have a lot of evidence of that. I mean, they said, well, say it. So there's not even. He's in the files. We know that he's in the airplane logs already. We've seen that. He's got to be in the files. I mean, he was close to Epstein. How could they not? How could he have not come up in a bunch of interviews? Should they put out unredacted on, you know, vetted files? Well, if some person says, I hear Donald did that, no, that's not right. Obviously, the criminal investigation is a million things that shouldn't be shared, but he is the President, United States. Should there be some account of his involvement or non involvement, maybe that would be. That would be worth. Worth knowing. And finally, while you were gone, there was all this publicity about Bongino. Is that how he pronounces it? And obviously, Attorney General Pam Bondi and Cash Patel, they're fighting, they're unhappy, Bongino's unhappy, Bondi's taking the hit and all this, it's all ludicrous. This is the one thing Sarah and I really both, I think, independently came to, as we talked about it, Wednesday or Thursday and thought, this is ridiculous. It's Trump. Pam Bondi is not deciding how to handle the Epstein files without consulting Trump. Maybe she's careful and doesn't formally schedule a meeting with him and there's an indirect communication. Trump's kind of good at that kind of stuff. It is inconceivable that Trump didn't sign off on these things, maybe order the decisions that Bondi and Patel came to in any way. They believe in the unitary executive. So he's responsible for it. I mean, he is literally responsible for it. Right. Just the way, you know, he doesn't get to walk, you know, to say, oh, that's Bondi and Patel. I don't know anything about it. So Trump decided to slam the door shut on the files of this sexual predator whom he was a good friend of and who was probably mentioned in many of these files. That's kind of a big story.

[Tim Miller]

And depending on what you. It's a really big story, depending on what. Also you mean by files like there are other Trump accusers and Julie points this out, right? It's not like there's just one secret black book where he listed all the men that raped women, right? Like the files like encompass all the investigations. The videos, you know, they, like, they went into Epstein's home and took out a lot of tapes. We don't, people don't know what's on, what is on the tapes. You know, there are other accusers. It was Stacey Williams, I believe, that accused Trump of groping her in an Epstein involved situation. There's another woman who did as well. Attached to Epstein, the Michael Wolf book. Now I'm a little kind of iffy on Michael Wolf, but like he says that Epstein showed him pictures of women on Trump's lap. Topless women. Were they underage? I don't, you know, I don't know. So the point is that like any legitimate investigation into Epstein would have included like running down these types of accusations and so he would be in there at some level. All right, well just because I'm back from holiday doesn't mean that you don't get to have a holiday sometime this summer or fall or winter. And if you're looking to head to a foreign country, take it from me, it's better if you're learning a foreign language. I was doing my best with Babel, but I was just so lucky to be there with my buddy Georgi in Spain who's English but been in Madrid for five years and his Spanish was unbelievable. Just yapping at the waitresses, you know, going back and forth with people, getting into arguments at the pub. It makes a difference. Just take it from me, it makes a difference if you can speak the language, so why not start trying to speak a new one with confidence like Georgie? Thanks to Babbel's conversation based technique that quickly teaches you useful words and phrases about the things you actually talk about in the real world. There's over a dozen languages to learn at your own pace so you can achieve your goals with material tailored to your individual proficiency level, interests and time availability. Handcrafted by over 200 language experts, Babbel's lessons are voiced by real native speakers and built with science backed cognitive tools like spaced repetition and interactive features to fit any learning style. They got a bunch of fun stuff to play around with. I like looking at the Babbel games because that keeps my attention going or the little culture bites that give you insider knowledge, little fun facts about the language because if you're not going to be fully proficient, which you can get to with Babbel, but not me, it's fun to have some little fun facts so you can have those at your disposal as well. I want you to learn another language. So I'm teaming up with Babbel to gift you 55% off subscriptions, but only for our listeners at babbel.com bulwark get up to 55% [e-mail] bulwark spelled B-A-B-B-E-L.com bulwark babel.com bulwark rules and restrictions apply. I want to talk about why I think that this has I don't want to get over excited that this is going to be the thing that breaks Mag or whatever, but I want to talk a little bit about what the real risks are with Mag in a second. But since you brought up Bongino that first he took a mental health day on Friday. He took the day off and apparently reported that he has gotten a screaming match with Susie Wiles. CNN over the weekend says that he's told multiple people he's considering resigning over this. Who knows, right? Is that a face saving thing? Is that Bongino doesn't like having a real job? Is it that Bongino doesn't like it was handled that he knows something but again, that brings legitimacy. Like that is a real news item. Like the deputy director of the FBI. Trump named him the deputy director of the FBI. He might be a clown, but like it's a pretty, it would be a pretty major story in any administration if the deputy director of the FBI was like I'm going to resign because I think that my boss is covering up a pedophile ring.

[Bill Kristol]

Totally. That's very well said. And I really, I just want to emphasize that point. I mean it's the idea. This is. Oh, we should. I was on various conversations over the weekend. I want to bore you with Evan, you know, various liberal friends in Washington and elites and lawyers and so forth types and they were like very abashed about even discussing it. I don't know, Bill, is that really a thing? I said I was doing the podcast with Julie Brown. Sarah and I had done one and stuff and I was just going to write something about it this morning. I thought, oh, this kind of, I guess you have to, it's probably hurts them politically. But you know, it's kind of we got more important things to talk about and all this. The deputy director of the FBI, as you say, Trump's personally handpicked appointee, possibly quitting the administration five months in over a cover up that Bongino will say is Pam Bondi's, but must therefore be Donald Trump's. That's a very big story, right? It doesn't take away Trump. That's a story in any administration. I couldn't agree more. So it really is absolutely legitimate to cover. And since the Bongino reporting is so broad based now, and in fact half of it's by people whom Bongino is probably telling it to. Right. Laura Loomer. I mean, who's the source for Laura Loomer? What are the, you know, you follow some of these MAGA characters a little more closely than I do. Do we not think that Bongino is personally the source for Laura Loomer? A 75% chance of that. I don't know. So it's not like this is just thirdhand disreputable gossipy stuff. Clearly, as you said, he took that day off, he's very unhappy. So that's a story. I absolutely agree.

[Tim Miller]

Here's also, I think the big picture political element of this that relates to that turning point USA video and the response of the crowd relates to kind of the response from the manosphere. We've seen some of this from some of these less political, less guys that jumped on board the Trump train that did care about the Epstein issue, given what has happened. They put out this statement that says that there's nothing there. The implication of that is one of two things. Either essentially all of the deep state conspiracies are fake. If there's really nothing to the Epstein case, then there's nothing to any of the cases that they have gotten all excited about that has driven MAGA media for years. Or Trump is covering up pedophilia on behalf of the most influential people in the world, including himself. That's kind of it. There's nothing here. Those are the options. You either take it at face value, there's nothing there. And that all of these conspiracies, even spending all this podcast time in over the years amounts to nothing, or Trump is involved in a massive cover up on behalf of the elites. And I think that the first one is important because when you think about the, the risk to maga, you know, because, you know, I think that probably a lot of liberals would just default to the first one, which, look, it's probably the first one, right? Like, it's probably just that these guys are all a bunch of conspiracy theorists and there's nothing There, but, but there, there will be a reckoning for that if that is true on the right, like if you take what they've been told at face value in MAGA world, like, and you look at the Pam Bondi, Cash Patel record, so far there have been no arrests of the Biden crime family. No arrests over 2020 election fraud, no arrests over the Russia hoax, no arrests involved with Jeffrey Epstein. How could that be acceptable to these people? I don't understand. I don't think it is. And I think that you will see the backlash. And I think that they are almost as vulnerable to delivering nothing as they are to a cover up. And obviously covering up Donald Trump being complicit in this would be a bigger story. But I think it's a real political vulnerability.

[Bill Kristol]

You know, I think Trump senses that, which is why in that kind of insane long truth. Social Post, 5pm on a Saturday afternoon, he turns it in a way which is both crazy, but in a way consistent with what you're saying. This was invented by Obama and Clinton. And I mean, it goes on, right? The document, he almost seems to say.

[Tim Miller]

I have it in front of me. You want me to just read it really quick? What's going on with my boys and in some cases gals, they're all going after Pam Bondi, who's doing a fantastic job. We have a perfect administration, the talk of the world, and selfish people are trying to hurt it all over a guy who never dies, Jeffrey Epstein for years. It's Epstein over and over again. Why are we giving publicity to files written by Obama, crooked Hillary, Comey Brennan and the losers and criminals of the Biden administration who con the world with Russia, Russia, Russia, the laptop from hell and more, blah, blah, blah. So that's what he's trying to lump.

[Bill Kristol]

It in with, which is literally almost crazy. That is six days before his own Justice Department and FBI, in a statement that as I said must have been signed off on by him, have said, look, we've gone through all. I hadn't really realized until I read the statement personally. They go into a little bit of detail, not much, but a couple paragraphs. We've read, gone through all these files, all these videos, extensive. Many agents and investigators have looked into this. Who knows if they're telling the truth. But they say they went through all this stuff. They say nothing about the files being cooked up or invented by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or anything like that. And they say, but there was nothing there. There's not enough there. There's no conspiracy. There's Nothing to charge, not even no conspiracy. It would be inappropriate to release any new information. That's what they say. But the files are legit. Suddenly Trump realizing that he's got the problem that you sort of specified, which is, well, wait a second, if the files are legit, okay, well, let's hear something about them. The files are made up, which is in a way typical. Trump kind of shrewdly just trying to totally change, you know, the topic so he doesn't even have to address it. And he denies everything, right? He denies Stormy Daniels, he denies everything that he's guilty that he did. Basically. He's unashamed about lying, to say the least. But in this case, he's now gotten himself into sort of weird contradiction. I mean, none of his people believes these files were made up. None of maga world thinks the files were made up. It shows a kind of panic in my view on that 5:21pm long truth social post that you read some of on Saturday afternoon. That feels to me like a little realization that this is spinning out of control. I don't know when those that booing.

[Tim Miller]

Was at the same time.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah. You know, he's hearing about this and he's sort of, I'll go to my, my, my go to play. It's all invented by Obama and Hillary as a decoy. But these people have been talking about this for years and no one said it was invented, including Patel, Bondi or Trump himself. No one said this problem was invented by Hillary or Obama. Right. I mean, I mean, that would be consistent if they said other. You know what I mean? The Russia hoax is the consistent fake news item on Trump's part. Right. It was invented by Mueller and Obama and now it's been invented eight years later. But so what's he going to do? I mean, I think what he'll do is, and he says this sort of at the end of that long true social thing, he's going to go after, redouble his efforts to go after everyone he can go after. Forget about Epstein. But I'm indicting, you know, Comey, I'm indicting. God knows I'm reopening the Hillary investigation. I'm reopening this. He'll come after the bulwark. I don't know. I mean, he'll desperately try to get his people focused on the malefactors who, you know, he wants them focused on. But that's difficult in this case. This was, you say 20, 19 was under Trump 2000. He didn't complain. You know what I mean, Trump wasn't complaining about the settlement in 2008, so far as I know, under the Bush administration.

[Tim Miller]

So anyway, I think that's a sell that works for like the real, the newsmax watchers. You know, if you're a 70 year old MAGA person who leaves oann on all day long, like, sure, like whatever is going to work on you, like eventually Charlie Kirk will get in line, you know, on side, right, Like Fox Primetime eventually gets on side. Or like you can only talk about this for so long probably, but that nexus of people that were drawn to Trump because he felt like he was a finger, tiny little finger in the eye of the elites and that that's what they liked about him, that he was anti establishment, he's different, that he wasn't going to get us involved in the wars, that he hear that from the young men that got along with him. I think that the credibility is unrecoverable on this. These guys are wired to believe that there is a conspiracy, whether or not that there is. You know, like the idea that you can tell them that the Jeffrey Epstein thing was just nothing actually is just laughable. I don't think the credibility is recoverable with them, which is meaningful.

[Bill Kristol]

It's so evidently more something than all these other quote, conspiracies. I mean, actually, Epstein was not a conspiracy theory exactly. It was a criminal case. He pled guilty in 08. They gave him a very soft punishment. It was reopened as we discussed. They indicted him. Those documents are public. I actually just looked at it this morning. So it's not a kind of Pizzagate. Oh my God. The deep state they weren't covering. They indicted him, then they indicted him. Maxwell.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, the suicide part is like, I guess the conspiracy.

[Bill Kristol]

That's fair.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, right. Well, it didn't really kill himself, but then again, they released the video. There's like a one minute gap. It's like, why is there a one minute gap? And then again on stage, and this is how you end up eating your own young on stage. It was not of the clips I played, but at tpusa, Charlie Kirk, even Kirk is like, can you just tell us who else was on the floor? Right? It's like, you know what I mean? Like what other prisoners were on the floor? So we can like look to see if any of them might have connections or, you know, you start putting the, the pins against the wall with this, with the string. But I mean, I think that that like part of it, you know, is I guess the quote unquote conspiracy but also it's, it is odd, it's unusual, you know, raises some eyebrows.

[Bill Kristol]

What do you think about the sort of, the soft, you know, Trump supporters. I guess they can just the world. I'm interested to see what the Wall Street Journal says and stuff. I mean, will they just sort of dismiss it? Harry reported on cnn, I don't know how viable a thing this is that an indicator. This is, I assume what he said is true. There's a wild surge in Google searches for Trump at Epstein and I take it that sort of feels to me like us getting half a million views out of Sarah Henry for this 20 minute video. Let's say normal people, not necessarily maybe Trump supporters, but not MAGA world. They're not, are just like, well, what is the story here? What are the facts? And the more people get to a sort of Julie Brown level, obviously not exactly at her level, but a simplified version of a Julie Brown level of understanding. Well, what happened over these 20 years and what happened over the 15 years before that when Trump and Epstein were great buddies and what is the real story? I think that hurts him in a slightly different way from the way you're describing with Mega World, but in an additional way it's sort of like the Myers thing. It hurts him with the base didn't like it because she wasn't fervent enough and like legal, you know, scholar types sort of thought. I thought he was going to like I thought the new conservative legal originalism was John Roberts and it was serious people, you know, and both can hurt. Right.

[Tim Miller]

All right, well, we'll continue to monitor. I feel pretty happy. I'm kind of giddy and vindicated about the whole thing because I've been, I was so fucking annoyed the whole time that I was like, how is this allowed? How is this a right wing conspiracy? It's like if anybody killed this fucking guy, it's Bill Bar and Trump. I don't know if anybody did maybe killed himself, but it's certainly not Hillary Clinton. How is she going to do it? From Chappaqua, walking through the woods?

[Bill Kristol]

I mean good for you for being on this earlier. And I think it is important, I mean one point that Julie made and I want to also just victims here do deserve a word of concern and God knows sympathy and justice, some justice at least so far as they can get justice for what happened to them. Terrible things that were done. It never even occurs to Trump to say that I was very struck by that, you know, or really to Bondi or Patel. They have one half Sentence in that two page memo that's sort of about doing justice to the victims. But in their actual statements, in their tweets, there's nothing about that. And that's somehow, to me, very, very revealing. You know, Trump went out of his way to say he wished Maxwell well when she was arrested in 2020. Remember that? And from the White House podium.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Bill Kristol]

But he's never said anything about the victims. What does that say about Trump? Trump thinks about it as I knew Jeffrey, he was a good friend. Maybe I had a falling out with him, whatever. I'm sort of involved. Other people I know could well be involved. Other Trump donors, other God knows who else. Right. I mean, in those circles. And we gotta keep the lid on this. And there's not a moment of thought that there were hundreds, maybe a thousand or something like that, underage girls who were victims of this monster.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, it's horrible. Yeah. I talked to Julie a lot about the victims during that first convict. It was a little bit outside of like kind of the political frame. We did a little politics. So again, people can go, can go listen to that because her stories are really just astonishing and tough to listen to, but important to listen to. All right, guys, we are back with the most fun sponsor. We got the perfect gene, the one that's the closest to my soul. Since genes are so important to my gay identity. I'm just dealing with it every day. I'm just trying to assess, can I get out of my skinny jeans? Can I do what the 24 year olds in Amsterdam are doing with their big wide legged jeans and their little skinny tops looking cool? I can try it and I've been doing my best to try it with the perfect jean, the perfect jeans got waist from 26 to 50 and lengths from 26 to 38. The stretch makes the jeans forgiving and this slightly helps to make your little booty look good if you want that. And they also got some new colors. If you're trying to branch out outside the blue, save yourself some time and money while shopping. For a limited time, our listeners get 15% off their first order plus free shipping at ThePerfectGene NYC or Google the Perfect Gene and use code Bulwark15 for 15% off. Oh, I can't forget to mention their perfect tees. Buttery, soft, organic cotton cut to make your arms and chest look chiseled. Especially if you have David Muir's body instead of mine. And just enough stretch to comfortably move with you from any social encounter that you're heading to it's finally time to stop crushing your balls and uncomfortable jeans. By going to the perfect gene NYC, our listeners get 15% off your first order, plus free shipping, free returns and free exchanges. When you use the code Bulwark15 at checkout, that's 15% off for new customers at ThePerfectGene NYC with promo code Bulwark15. After you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you. Fuck your khakis and get the perfect Gene. Where do we want to go next? I have. I have a series of other things have been happening. I guess I want to start with immigration while I was gone in MacArthur park in Los Angeles. So I come back last night and I'm like, all right, I got to start reading about what the fuck happened this past week and this story. I forget, you know, I'm like going through different newsletters and, and going through old morning shots and all that, reading through what happened. I was reading this one and I clicked on the PBS story. Dozens of federal officers in tactical gear and about 90 members of the California National Guard were deployed for about an hour Monday to a mostly empty park in a Los Angeles neighborhood with a large immigrant population. Mayor Karen Bass, who Bullock subsequently did an interview with, about this. What I saw in the park looked like a city under siege, under armed occupation. I was reading that story and I was like, wait, the military is still in Los Angeles? Why is the fucking military still in Los Angeles? And this morning, as I was trying to catch up, I was like, what have they been doing for the last week? It is truly crazy that the federal government is still taking control of the California National Guard and has deployed Marines to Los Angeles to just hassle people.

[Bill Kristol]

Right? I think they were supporting the Border Patrol people who, you know, were proudly riding through on horses. It was so third World and so horrible to see. I mean, incidentally, Los Angeles is not on the border. So we have the Border Patrol plus the National Guard in a park in LA where kids literally was on Monday were like, there for, you know, their camp. They go to the park to play soccer or something like that. I mean, that's who was there. And they really brought home the kind of semi fascism of the whole thing, honestly. It brought home, I think, the warnings of some of us that this wasn't going to stop once they began this. The deportation thing just accelerates. Right. And your point is so good about the Guard and the marines. I think 200 marines are now being sent to Florida to help out with that horrible camp in the Everglades or to help, I don't know what, protect ice people. Not that they're being attacked, they're picking up 70 year old people. I mean, remember, we all, I will say on this, called attention to this. That original executive order, the original justification was all open ended. It wasn't all only for la, it wasn't only for California, it was for any troops he needs. Wherever there could be a problem, wherever they had intelligence there might be protests. I mean, Miller laid the groundwork for this and they're going ahead with it now. There is a pretty big reaction, I would say. You asked what you missed during the week. A few people were like a little, really, this is not where we are. Plus there's some business reaction and farmers reaction against all the harassing of hardworking people. And a little more Trump voters saying over and over, this is a JVL obsession. Of course I didn't vote for this. Even though they had mass deportation printed up placards at the Republican convention. But they didn't think they were voting for this. I suppose. So anyway, that's.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, here's the thing though. So there's this fascistic and scary. Well, always with fascism, there is like a clownishness involved with it. So there's the clownish side of it too. Clint Klippenstein was reporting on that raid. They gave it a name, Operation Excalibur.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

And it was just like a totally botched laughingstock. He had some sources in the National Guard. He's like, we were there for like 20 minutes. Nobody knew what they were doing. We all had different code names. You know, it's like the Border Patrol is Pepsi and. And the Marines were Coke and ice was A and W rupee. And it was like the whole thing was ridiculous. Like it was just a farce. You know, at some level there's that, but. And like these errors like are adding up. Just like I was kind of trying to clean up on a couple of the stories that I talked about. This Narquiso Barranco that was the father of the three US Marines that was violently tackled and beaten up in la. He is supposed to be released today. Donna Kashani is the Iranian woman that was gardening here in New Orleans, had been here for 60 years. She got released. I was gone after a couple of weeks. Last night, this guy, George Reddes, I don't know if I talked about him, but he was this disabled US veteran and US citizen that was like violently detained for several days in One of these raids he got released after about three days. There's some other examples of this, but you see the problem developing, which is that the Congress just gave tens of billions of more dollars to ICE to go out and find and detain people. They're having to hassle and harass and detain people that are not violent criminals or major risks already before all those other resources. So to me, that augurs very ominously for what is coming down the pike. And it seems like the best case scenario is that we just spend billions of billions of dollars to have a bunch of guys sit around with their thumbs up their ass, which might be what's happening right now in la.

[Bill Kristol]

I mean that would be good. But they are deporting a lot of people. They are way beyond capacity in terms of the current detention capacities capabilities. And they're building as in Florida with that Everglades thing. They're going to now spend all this money to build many more detention centers and to spend money to get them out of the country, including now because the courts have given them a sort of green light on this to third countries where they have no relationship and don't even speak the language. And the South Sudan thing. So I'm pretty. Tom Homan, the, you know, sort of military deputy in effect on this was like we're going to preside over the largest mass deportation history, you can bet on it. So I think the clownishness is real, as you said. It is characteristic of a lot of these kinds of movements, political movements, but the fascism is real too, if I can put it this way. And I they, yeah, I mean, will there be enough of a backlash that at some point Trump says hey, I mean this is getting a little out of it is pretty unpopular. There's. There was that one immigration poll that came out while you were gone. Did you see that? Where you know, numbers have changed pretty radically across the board on immigration actually. But presumably a reaction to this stuff, particularly in terms of your general views of are you favorable or well disposed to immigrants or not. And it's like shot way up. And do you think we have too many of them, too little too met. Too little has gone up, too many has gone way down. So I don't know, does political reality hit at some point or is this just. Or is this the one thing they're going to do and they don't care? And Homer and Miller are going to just. Our friend Aaron Reichel Melnick, we've both done podcasts with said months ago they can have trouble hiring all these people, because here's how the procedure works. And, you know, there's all kinds of qualifications and vetting. But, I mean, he did at the time said, of course, they. These procedures are kind of at their discretion. I mean, I think Coleman and Miller, they will hire every tough guy, thuggish guy, proud boy, you know, someone who got fired from a sheriff's department for beating up, you know, someone whose skin color he didn't like. They'll be in. I mean, I hope not, but I very much worry there'll be ICE agents six weeks from now. And so I'm slightly on the side of being super alarmed about where this goes, not reassured that they kind of are going to screw it up so badly.

[Tim Miller]

And Garrett Graff, who I might try to get on in the next couple weeks, wrote about this. He was covering this the last round, and he covered essentially, the story of, like, the CBP officers. Like, there's a big hiring spree back then when they're pretending to build a wall or whatever on border agents. And one of the things he came away from it is, like, it's a. It's messy. It's not like the FBI. There's not like that kind of vetting system. You know, they made some really bad mistakes. Like, they hired people that had criminal records, and, you know, they hired people that weren't prepared for this. And. And that was small compared to what they're trying to do now. Just one more thing on the Everglades, because it's in America, not in El Salvador. Some Democratic members of Congress have been able to get in there. And I was watching Debbie Wasserman Schultz's press conference talking about it, talking about how the conditions are very poor. And Maxwell Frost was echoing that. The Miami Herald got the files of who is in the Everglades Detention Center. Hundreds of immigrants with no criminal charges are being held there. Maybe about a third of them have no criminal charges, or 260 with pending criminal charges, 240 with criminal convictions. So it's like, are there bad people that are being caught? Yes. Great. But, like, does the manner in which they're doing this mean that, like, we are holding people who did, who have done essentially nothing in, like, in cages and making them, like, lay next to violent criminals and shower next to them and eat, you know, like. Yeah, like that, like, both are happening.

[Bill Kristol]

And, I mean, I don't know enough about the law about. Exactly. I mean, obviously the border. It's a different situation than internally, but you can't arrest people and just hold them indefinitely in the United States of America. At least I didn't think you could. And you can't normally and the New York City Police Department can't and they can hold you 48 hours and you call your lawyer and if they don't have charges with witnesses and the whole apparatus of a legal system, you get, you leave and you can also get bail. I mean none of this here, right? They just hold them and I guess at some point they're going to ship them out based on their own determination. I mean there's some provision for some legal help sometimes it seems like. But they've taken laws that really were designed for the border, right. Someone sneaks across, he's half a mile across, they're not going to have a, we're not going to have a whole US style apparatus before we send that guy back to Mexico. Right. I mean, so that would be crazy and impractical. But they're taking those kinds of rules and applying it to people who are gardeners in Florida or in California. It's really terrible. I mean that respect the corruption it's doing to the country. I mean I feel bad for the people obviously who are being detained above all. But the general corruption to the notion of the rule of law and all that is quite great as well.

[Tim Miller]

Michael Tomsky pointed this out. I think potentially there's some political opportunity here for Democrats because yeah, I mean the poll numbers have changed in immigration but there maintains, I think wrong headed concern among some Democrats about whether this is a good issue and maybe they should stay away from immigration as much. But he framed it in a way that I think is interesting that might allow some Democrats to get to get into this issue on a more comfortable and favorable turf. In 2023, the federal government spent 12.8 billion to build new affordable housing for people. And the bill that passed a week and a half ago now has 45 billion on detention centers. So when you think about the most fundamental issue that people have concerns about, like housing costs, cost of living in this country, the government is prioritizing by about 4x putting immigrants in detention centers, what they are prioritizing on providing housing for people. That kind of stuff I think really can resonate and get you into kind of the more economic side of this stuff.

[Bill Kristol]

Especially when there's so many stories about the people who are in these centers, as you say, have no criminal record or trivial one driving offense kind of record and literally are working, you know, are being hired on their way to jobs or having checked in as they are supposed to do legally to update their status each month or, you know, whatever. Right. It's one thing if, I mean, if you told people you've got to spend $40 billion because there's so many violent criminals in this country, it's the only way to keep us safe, they'd say, okay, you know, it's expensive to have law and order. But that's not the case here. So I think the combination is probably pretty effective, even.

[Tim Miller]

True. Even in that situation. It's like, do you want to live in a country where you're spending four times as much on prisons as you are on housing for people? And a sudden I'm about to start. Start sounding like a democratic socialist over here. But I do think that there are. I think that there is economic populist way to get into this. The floods in Texas, also horrible. I've got more to come on this with some guests coming later in the week and maybe next week over kind of what's happening with FEMA and what's, you know, happening with cuts, the National Weather Service and what is ahead. But just kind of a brief word like a. Just the tragedy and again, like the resource allocation questions, like, we've got a soldier standing outside the federal building in Los Angeles guarding nothing. And meanwhile, there are people dying in Kerr county and Texas because these floods. You would think that maybe there'd be a better way to allocate resources, but it seems to me just to be a pretty real failure, particularly of the Texas local government, which is kind of the point in these sort of situations. But I don't know if there was anything that struck you about Texas.

[Bill Kristol]

No, I agree. And it does seem like it was true that FEMA was slow getting there because Kristi Noem had insisted that she sign off personally on every $100,000 expenditure or something. And in fact, when FEMA really goes to a place, they spend a fair amount of money getting people there. Obviously they gotta buy plane tickets. And so I don't know. There's been a lot of contradictory reporting. And correctly, people are more focused on the horrible tragedy for now. But it seems like neither the federal government nor the Texas government, state government, have distinguished themselves in this, unfortunately.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. More to come on this. I want to talk with you about trade stuff. So Trump now, after tacoing and untacoing a million Times, it's now August 1st is the big day on the reciprocal tariffs for Europe. There's really a big New York Times take out of this about how the EU is still negotiating and Drawing up, you know, any retaliation that they're going to do. But really more are just, you know, trying to re orient the trade map and the plans and figure out how they can kind of move forward without having to deal with, you know, the mad king in America when it comes to economic deals. And so you have that on the EU side of things. And then we have decided to have a tantrum and do it, put a 50% tariff on Brazil because Trump doesn't like the treatment of Bolsonaro. I've got a pretty hilarious clip of Kevin Hassett trying to defend that that I want to play in here in a second. But do you have any big picture thoughts on the latest on the trade side of things before? I do.

[Bill Kristol]

I mean, it's pretty bad and somehow the markets have held up and the economy's mostly held up. But you do wonder, I don't know people I trust who are sensible economists and not even fantastically anti Trump necessarily just think this. The risk is getting greater and greater. And I guess if you think ahead politically, if you combine some of what we've seen on Epstein and some of what we've seen on immigration with some real faltering in the economy, the housing starts also down a lot. Some of this is immigration related, incidentally. I don't know. I feel like they could be heading for a rough time here politically because of that.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. The economic thing is hard to kind of figure. Right. Because there are a lot of mixed signals. The market has been resilient. The US Economy is big and dynamic and complex and. Right. And it's like you have these little pockets of areas where you're seeing negative signs. New people coming out of college, new hiring is tough right now, certain industries, but not right after the Liberation Day where there were signs maybe there was going to be a widespread economic downturn.

[Bill Kristol]

I mean, trade is something like what, 12% of the US GDP? I mean, these things, they're slightly overhyped in a way. How would just destroy everything overnight. We can cut trade a lot with some of these countries and it's not going to matter much. You know, on the other hand, it does add up supply chain. I what do I know? But I feel like people, I think who are sensible are much more bearish for three, six, nine months from now. It is. We're such a big economy. We had pretty good momentum coming out of the Biden years. If I'm allowed to say that we'd not to get into the phrasing, we should forget about Biden coming out of the previous administration that Trump was able to coast on that for a while. But I got to think all this is doing real damage.

[Tim Miller]

Your old friend Kevin Hassett. I do, I do just have to play a little bit from he's on tv. For folks who don't know Hassett, I guess economist in good standing, maybe a little hackish during the Bush years, but fully went in with maga. And the more whatever you want to call this protectionist economic plan he was on with John Carl, and John Carl was just trying to get him to explain what is the legal basis and what is the rationale for a 50% tariff on Brazil, a country that we have a trade surplus with and no national security concerns related to. And I'd like to play for you the, the exchange on what authority does.

[Bill Kristol]

The president have to impose tariffs on a country because he doesn't like what that country's judicial system is handling a specific case.

[Tim Miller]

Well, I mean, how, how is that it's a national defense emergency or if he thinks a national security threat that.

[Bill Kristol]

He has the authority under aipa. So, so how is it it a national security threat that, you know, how.

[Tim Miller]

How Brazil is handling a criminal case against its former president? Well, that's not the only thing.

[Bill Kristol]

That's not the only thing. I mean.

[Tim Miller]

So what is it?

[Bill Kristol]

I mean, I've asked what it is. I mean, it seems that that's what President Trump's talking about. He's talking about his, his anger and his frustration. He's been quite candid about it with the Bolsonaro case.

[Tim Miller]

Right. Well, the bottom line is that what we're doing absolutely. Collectively across every country is we're on shoring production in the US to reduce the national emergency, that is that we have a massive trade deficit that's putting it at risk should we need production.

[Bill Kristol]

In the US because of a national security crisis.

[Tim Miller]

And this is part of an overall strategy to do that. But again, as we've just established, we.

[Bill Kristol]

Have a trade surplus with Brazil, not a deficit.

[Tim Miller]

And we've had a surplus with Brazil for 18 years. How do you live with yourself? I mean, that is humiliating.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, no, it is. Well, he's a hack and I guess it's nice to see the hacks have to be even more self evidently hackish than sometimes in defending these things. But it is. And how Congress, I mean, not to get back to one of our favorite themes, but I'll just say it for 30 seconds that Congress has authority over tariffs and trade. Congress could stop this tomorrow. They could stop the Brazil Tariff, they could actually pass a law saying you can't use ieba, which is misusing anyway, if we have an actual surplus for the country, that you're using it to justify, using a trade deficit to justify these extraordinary measures. But of course, it all should be illegal. Maybe we'll see if a court does. One court did find some of it illegal, but Congress is the one who could snatch back authority. I mean, do the Republicans on the Hill, the combination of these things, does it ever, ever, ever lead them to break a little bit? I mean, with Myers, which I was slightly involved in, to get back to you, I hadn't really thought of that analogy. It was the Republicans, it wasn't me and David Franmore, Laura Ingraham, it was the Republican senators. Finally, I think Cornyn maybe, and others like that who had some stature on judicial matters saying, ugh, no, we can't do this, we shouldn't do this. I don't know, does anyone ever do that in the era of Trump? I don't know.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe only on this final issue, Ukraine, I mean, a lot of damage, a lot of death, a lot of unnecessary death in Kyiv and other places throughout the country because, you know, Russia has continued to bombard them while they pretend to do peace deals, while we don't provide them even defensive weapons. But there's, you know, credible seeming reporting today that there might be an announcement that the US Is going to be providing new weapons either to Ukraine or selling them to Europe and having them given to Ukraine. We'll see exactly how that, like, works out. What do you make of that? And I've got some thoughts, but what, what do you, what do you think?

[Bill Kristol]

I mean, it's good. It's too little, too late. And so I hope it's not too little, but it's too late and it's better than nothing. And yeah, as you say, Ukraine's the one issue where the Republicans even last year were willing to thwart, you know, go against Trump. And I think there's some genuine belief there really, you know, they care, they think it's a disaster not to help Ukraine. So I hope they go ahead with it and maybe this reversal of Trump, I don't know politically if it helps Trump or hurts Trump or people don't really care.

[Tim Miller]

But I think it's interesting because look, we've got, I don't know how many thousand days left with this guy.

[Bill Kristol]

Three and a half years, whatever, whatever.

[Tim Miller]

That makes up 11, you know, 1200 days. Something. It is important to just be like, real and like Clear eyed about like what we're dealing with. And I think that sometimes in the anti Trump world, like people dip a little bit into kind of fantastical like thinking about it and like this isn't like the Russia thing is a prime example, right? Because there have been two theories of the case always. Like one is like what I will call the Krasnov theory, that Trump is a Russian stooge and that Trump is doing whatever Russia wants and that we are going to slowly reorient ourselves to be an alliance with Russia and you know, who, who the hell knows what else. What other implications come with that? And the other that I've always preferred frame is that Trump, like, is a, is a man child, that like think that like once, you know, that dad didn't hug him enough and that he wants to be respected and he thinks that Putin is his friend and he thinks that the other people were mean to him over Putin and that Putin was really nice to him and that finally, far, far, far too late, he's starting to be like, wait a minute, maybe Putin's not nice to me actually. And like, maybe this is wrong, you know, And Zelensky comes to meet him two weeks ago, puts on a suit and God love Zelensky for doing this sort of shit, having to suck up to Trump. I couldn't fucking do it. So puts on a suit, you know, butters him up and we'll see. Maybe that works, you play it out. But like, I combine that with like, I was watching his interview with Lara Trump on Fox. She's real North Korea type shit. Over there they have a future Senate candidate, maybe daughter in law, interviewing her father in law about how great he is. And she was asking him about his legacy. Interesting question to ask with three and a half years left in the term. The first thing he says is like, I want people to think I'm a good person. You don't want to overread any random sentence that comes out of Trump's mouth. For me, it was just one more data point towards like, I don't know, man, this even might be like a sad, pathetic person that like, wants to be respected and liked and wants to be on Mount Rushmore and wants people to butter him up and treat him seriously. And in that like view, it is rational to do that, to do all the stupid shit that I refuse to do, but that these other guys have to do in order to kind of get him to come around and like say, okay, fine, we can give some patriots to Ukraine. And if that happens, I just Think that will be an important data point to assess and to like, think about how to, you know, kind of process and deal with this fucking lunatic for the remaining time we have.

[Bill Kristol]

I mean, I think the foreign leaders have really learned this and have internalized it and sort of like you. I don't blame them, especially not someone like Zelensky, whose nation is on the brink. But the head of NATO did that ridiculous suck up text that Trump made. They're defending real and they have real reasons, their responsibilities to their citizens to do this. I don't begrudge them this. That's very different from people at home strengthening him for the next three and a half years, which is sort of the Republican Congress thing. But yeah, no, no, it's interesting that you're right. He's less, maybe a little less ideologically committed to destroying everything good in the world. He's still like ridiculous. You know, the weakness is itself a huge problem. Obviously. It's not like Putin couldn't suck up to him for, for a week or something like that. And yeah, and he does prefer dictators. That's the final point I'd make. I mean, the Bolsonaro Putin stuff, he just, that's where his, that's what he admires, you know, so it's not, it's not good, but it may not be quite as good.

[Tim Miller]

No, it's not good. I don't want.

[Bill Kristol]

No, I know, I think. But it's not quite as bad as, as some of our friends may sometimes have thought.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I just, you know, I keep assessing, you know, I'm always like, I go back to that conversation I had with Chris Hayes on election night, where he was, where we were like, he's like, the band of outcomes is the widest possible. Like it was literally like Trump could just golf and do nothing for four years and let the status quo go on and be happy he's not in jail or we could have nuclear winter. Right. Like the band of outcomes was so wide and I just, if the Ukraine weapons thing does go through, it'll just adjust me back. One tick towards away from the worst possible outcome is all right.

[Bill Kristol]

And my little modification might be. I think the bad outcomes could be a little better than one might have feared in foreign policy for certain reasons that are unique to foreign policy. If you want to be a success, you do have these other nations, I do think, at home. On the other hand, don't you think of the first six months we've been a pretty close to the red zone in the band of outcomes. I mean, deportations and politicization of justice and the whole just destruction of our scientific research. I mean, that stuff has been really bad.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, not great. Close to the red zone, but I don't know. Okay, well, we need a meter. I need to create a meter.

[Bill Kristol]

Yeah, I was thinking. That's right. I said the red zone thing. I was thinking of one of those. I don't know what I was thinking of exactly. Those meters right there.

[Tim Miller]

What do we do during the DHS Now? I know you want to get rid of DHS now, but in the original days of Tom Ridge, we had the threat assessment, you know, the orange and the yellow, and we can. We'll have to go back to look at that. All right. Thanks to Bill Kristol. He'll be back next Monday. You and me, well, we need each other. So we're gonna be back here tomorrow with another edition of the Bulwark Podcast. I'll see y' all then. And every single day this. This week. Don't worry about it. No holidays, no vacations. Bye. Peace. I don't know what it is that makes me feel alive I don't know.

[Bill Kristol]

How to wake the things to sleep inside I only want to see the.

[Tim Miller]

Light that shines behind your eyes I.

[Bill Kristol]

Hope that I can say the things.

[Tim Miller]

I wish I said to sing myself.

[Bill Kristol]

To sleep and take me back to bed who wants to be alone when.

[Tim Miller]

We can feel alive instead.

[Bill Kristol]

Because we.

[Tim Miller]

Need each other we believe in one.

[Bill Kristol]

Another.

[Tim Miller]

Sleeping in our soul Sleeping in our soul.

[Bill Kristol]

There are many things that.

[Tim Miller]

I would like to know and there.

[Bill Kristol]

Are many places that I wish to go but everything's depending out the way but when when they blow.

[Tim Miller]

I don't.

[Bill Kristol]

Know what it is that makes me.

[Tim Miller]

Feel alive I don't know how to wake up Is asleep inside I only want to see the light that shines behind your eyes the board podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.