Bill Kristol: Kleptocrats and Plutocrats

Summary

The Bulwark Podcast: Bill Kristol on Kleptocrats and Plutocrats
Release Date: March 3, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Crystal

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Introduction

In this episode of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller is joined by Bill Crystal to dissect a recent and highly contentious press conference involving former President Donald Trump, U.S. Senator JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The discussion delves deep into the ramifications of Trump's administration's stance on Ukraine, Russia, and broader U.S. foreign and domestic policies. The episode also touches on emerging economic policies, including tariffs and a controversial proposal for a U.S. crypto reserve.

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The Press Conference: Trump, JD Vance, and Zelensky

The centerpiece of the episode is the analysis of a press conference held between Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Volodymyr Zelensky. The interaction became infamous for its lack of diplomacy and decorum, with Senator Vance taking a stern stance against President Zelensky.

• JD Vance's Confrontation: Vance begins by challenging the effectiveness of Trump's diplomacy, questioning whether Trump had been "too nice to Putin" [[04:11] Tim Miller].

  JD Vance [02:18]: "What kind of diplomacy, J.D., you are speaking about. What do you mean?"

• Trump's Defensive Stance: Trump responds by defending his diplomatic efforts, mentioning agreements signed with European leaders and criticizing Zelensky for not fulfilling his part.

  Donald Trump [03:22]: "What kind of diplomacy, J.D., you are speaking about. What do you mean?"

The exchange quickly devolves into a public spat, with Trump and Vance berating Zelensky, leading to a tense and unproductive dialogue.

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Analysis of the Diplomatic Clash

Bill Crystal interprets the press conference as a politically motivated setup aimed at undermining Zelensky and distancing the Republican Party from previous support for Ukraine.

• Political Motives: Crystal suggests that the confrontation was orchestrated to portray Zelensky as an "enemy of peace," thereby swaying Republican support.

  Bill Crystal [05:40]: "They wanted to do what Trump later says in the tweet, what does it portray Zelensky as an enemy of peace to damage support for Zelenskyy here at home..."

• Impact on Domestic Politics: The debacle is seen as Trump attempting to realign the Republican Party more closely with his agenda, even at the cost of international relations.

  Bill Crystal [06:12]: "This was for Trump's domestic politics here more than anything else."

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European Reaction and Implications for NATO

The episode explores the fallout from the press conference, emphasizing the negative reactions from European leaders and the potential weakening of NATO's foundational principles.

• European Leaders' Response: European nations, particularly Germany, have expressed alarm over the U.S.'s apparent shift in foreign policy, fearing a move away from defending liberal democracy.

  Bill Crystal [19:52]: "The Europeans understood right away. Russia understood."

• NATO's Future: Concerns are raised about the future of NATO without the U.S. as its anchor, questioning whether European nations can sustain the alliance independently.

  Bill Crystal [21:21]: "It's a tall task... sustaining the world order without the US on side..."

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Economic Policies: Tariffs and Trade Wars

Tim Miller and Bill Crystal discuss Trump's economic maneuvers, including the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and the potential repercussions of these policies.

• Tariffs on Neighboring Countries: Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, citing reasons like fentanyl trafficking and trade imbalances.

  Bill Crystal [30:26]: "The tariffs on Canada and Mexico... they're going to have real impact."

• Doubling Tariffs on China: The decision to escalate tariffs on China to 20% is critiqued as detrimental to the global economy and consumer prices.

• Potential Economic Downturn: Concerns are voiced about the weakening economy due to these tariffs, with fears that rising inflation and unemployment could push Trump towards more authoritarian measures.

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Trump's Crypto Reserve Proposal

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to dissecting Trump's proposal for a U.S. crypto reserve, which aims to position cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum as national assets.

• Proposal Overview: Trump announced an executive order to establish a crypto strategic reserve, including major cryptocurrencies, to fortify the U.S. against future digital financial crises.

  Tim Miller [40:30]: "The theory of the case here is that cryptocurrencies are so valuable, this digital gold, so to speak..."

• Criticism and Concerns: Bill Crystal likens the proposal to absurd investments like "pet rocks" or "Beanie Babies," highlighting the speculative and risky nature of such a reserve.

  Bill Crystal [44:02]: "Someone said this would be illegal in every country in the world... stealing money from the taxpayer..."

• Potential for Corruption: The initiative is criticized for its potential to enrich Trump and his associates, with mentions of Howard Lutnick and David Sacks having vested interests in cryptocurrencies.

  Tim Miller [44:02]: "It's a preposterous scheme that is going to enrich Trump family."

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Impact on U.S. Foreign Aid and Public Health

The discussion shifts to Trump's administration's handling of foreign aid and public health, emphasizing cuts and the repercussions of these policies.

• Cuts to Foreign Aid: Under Trump's directive, foreign aid programs have seen significant reductions, affecting critical areas like child nutrition and HIV/AIDS treatment in Africa.

  Bill Crystal [35:24]: "Now the guy that's blowing the whistle on it, instead of them backing off more and trying to put in place the waivers that Rubio wanted, the guy's getting put on administrative leave."

• Public Health Concerns: Actions such as placing key public health officials on administrative leave are highlighted as detrimental to global health initiatives.

  Tim Miller [35:22]: "These cuts are going to have massive ramifications for children, malnourished children, pregnant women..."

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Authoritarian Tendencies and Corruption

Bill Crystal and Tim Miller explore the broader theme of authoritarianism within the Trump administration, drawing parallels to historical kleptocratic and plutocratic practices.

• Erosion of Democratic Norms: The episode underscores how Trump's actions signify a departure from democratic principles, reflecting traits common in kleptocratic regimes.

  Bill Crystal [34:50]: "This is the full flowering, I'd say, of not just the abandonment of Zelenskyy, but the embrace of Putin."

• Corruption Risks: The proposal for a crypto reserve is portrayed as a step towards massive corruption, likening it to the Teapot Dome scandal but on a much grander scale.

  Tim Miller [40:30]: "It's truly astonishing... essentially nothing so that a bunch of people can make a lot of money."

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Conclusions and Future Outlook

In wrapping up, Tim Miller and Bill Crystal express deep concerns about the trajectory of U.S. policies under Trump's administration, particularly regarding international alliances, economic stability, and corruption.

• Sustained Challenges: They worry about the long-term effects of these policies, including potential political isolation, weakened alliances, and economic instability.

  Bill Crystal [25:29]: "What is NATO anymore?... the post war structure is at risk."

• Potential Political Repercussions: The possibility of Trump facing significant political fallout due to these actions is discussed, though they acknowledge the immediate impact on both domestic and international fronts.

  Tim Miller [31:00]: "I think that the worse things get, the more unhinged he would get and the more he would move towards even further down the authoritarian path."

• Final Thoughts: The episode concludes with a cautionary note about the ongoing war in Ukraine and the critical need for coherent and stable U.S. policies to support international allies.

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Notable Quotes

• Volodymyr Zelensky on Diplomacy:

  Volodymyr Zelensky [02:18]: "I am talking about the kind of diplomacy that's going to end the destruction of your country."

• JD Vance on U.S. Military Support:

  JD Vance [10:56]: "You're running low on soldiers. It would be a damn good thing."

• Donald Trump on Ceasefire:

  Donald Trump [07:07]: "You will feel influenced."

• Bill Crystal on European Leaders:

  Bill Crystal [19:52]: "They do not want to betray Ukraine. And Zelensky is not going to give up and Ukraine's not going to give up."

• Tim Miller on Crypto Reserve Proposal:

  Tim Miller [40:30]: "It is an absurd proposition... It's like buying the US Government buying pet rocks or Beanie Babies."

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Conclusion

This episode of The Bulwark Podcast provides a comprehensive and critical examination of the Trump administration's recent policies and actions, highlighting the potential dangers of authoritarianism, corruption, and reckless foreign and economic policies. Tim Miller and Bill Crystal offer insightful analysis, urging listeners to remain vigilant about the shifting dynamics within U.S. politics and their profound implications on both national and global scales.

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The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

Transcript

[Unknown Speaker]

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[Tim Miller]

Hello and welcome to the Bulborg Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. Congrats to Anora. A great film on a win last night, Lots of wins at the Oscars and Happy Lundy. Gr much has happened since we last taped. Had it not been my husband's 40th birthday and Marty GR weekend, I might have come back on to do an emergency pod. But, you know, sometimes you guys just got to wait for the good stuff. And so I got Bill Crystal back here and it's Monday. How you doing, Bill?

[Bill Crystal]

I'm doing fine. Sam and I did a pod yesterday, you'd be glad to know, which covers some of this. But there's. We can get into much more depth here, Sam. You know, you kind of skate across the surface with Tim Miller. You're talking about the deep dives.

[Tim Miller]

You know, that is. That is great to know. No, I was nursing a hangover yesterday, so I did not tune in for you and Sam. But people can get our little Sunday bonus conversations on Substack. So, you know, go to the Bulwark, sign up for Bulwark plus. You don't have to wait for me till Monday afternoon. That way. All right, where should we start? I think we got to start with the sneer heard round the world from JD Vance. I'm going to play a series of clips from the White House summit, so to speak, between Volodymyr Zelensky, Putin that was unintentional. Between Vladimir Zelensky, Trump Advance. Things were going okay. I mean, you know, okay for Trump on the Trump scale, until JD Decided to interject into a question from the press about whether Trump had been too nice to Putin.

[JD Vance]

Let's listen one more question.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I will respond to this. So look, for four years, the United States of America, we Had a president who stood up at press conferences and talked tough about Vladimir Putin. And then Putin invaded Ukraine and destroyed a significant chunk of the country. The path to peace and the path to prosperity is maybe engaging in diplomacy. We tried the pathway of Joe Biden of thumping our chest and pretending that the President of the United States words mattered more than the President of the United States actions.

[Donald Trump]

I signed with him, Macron and Merkel. We signed ceasefire, Ceasefire. All of them told me that he will never go. We signed him with gas contract. Gas contract, yes. But after that, he broken the ceasefire. He killed our people. And he didn't exchange prisoners. We signed the exchange of prisoners, but he didn't do it. What kind of diplomacy, J.D. you are speaking about. What do you mean?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I'm talking about the kind of diplomacy that's going to end the destruction of your country. Yes, but he feels. Mr. President, with respect, I think it's disrespectful for you to come into the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the American media. Right now, you guys are going around and forcing conscripts to the front lines because you have manpower problems. You should be thanking the president for trying to bring it into this conflict.

[Donald Trump]

Have you ever been to Ukraine that you say what problems we have?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I have been to come once. I have actually. I've actually watched and seen the stories. And I know what happens is you bring people, you bring them on a propaganda tour. Mr. President, are. Do you disagree that you've had problems bringing people into your military? And do you think that it's respectful to come to the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack the administration that is trying to prevent the destruction of your country?

[Donald Trump]

A lot of questions. Let's start from the beginning.

[Tim Miller]

Sure.

[Donald Trump]

First of all, during the war, everybody has problems, even you.

[Tim Miller]

All right, we're going to get to. Then President Trump intervening there. But I wanted to start with JD since he kicked off the kerfuffle. Kind of a mixed message there. He begins by condescendingly lecturing Zelensky about diplomacy and how we need diplomacy now. And then he proceeds to berate and chastise Zelensky, which isn't maybe the best form of diplomacy I've ever seen. But I'm curious what you thought about that, Bill.

[Bill Crystal]

I mean, it was a setup, obviously, by Trump and J.D. i don't know if it was semi bad cop and really bad cop or what, but JD Knew what he was doing. He had his little talking points prepared. They wanted to do what Trump later says in the tweet, what does it portray Zelensky as an enemy of peace to damage support for Zelenskyy here at home, especially among those Republicans, half of them on the Hill, right, who a year ago voted for aid to Ukraine to carry out Trump's pro Putin policy, he needs to move the entire Republican Party in his direction, or at least it would be helpful for him to do so, not just the half of it that's with him already. And that's what the purpose of this meeting was. Zelenskyy came here to sign a deal and he, he made big concessions because he wanted to honor Trump's somewhat ridiculous, I believe, request and somewhat extortionate request for the deal on minerals. But he came here for that reason. And then they changed the deal and, and sandbagged Zelensky. And JD Was kind of the heavier of the two sandbaggers, but Trump went pretty far, too.

[Tim Miller]

And I guess it was definitely set up. But this all happens like 38 minutes in about to the press conference. And you know, you get it, you're into the Q and A. And at some level, Trump, you know, I think wants the show. You know, kind of like, oh, I'm going to make him come here and we're going to sign his way as minerals to us say we got a great deal. And so, like, do you think Trauma JD Thought that there was potentially a clean version of this or that it was a certain that JD Was going to go at him? Because I'm not sure.

[Bill Crystal]

Well, I think the way JD Went at him left Zelensky no choice. A B if you think about the alleged deal they wanted a week ago, it included Zelensky holding elections in Ukraine. That's become a huge talking point on the pro Trump right, which he said he can't do and won't do and the Constitution doesn't permit him to do in Ukraine. And this deal is going nowhere anyway. So they weren't going to get a deal with Zelensky. They're not going to get a deal with Putin, I suspect, unless it's a total and utter just capitulation to let him keep fighting and devastating Ukraine. And so I think this was for Trump's domestic politics here more than anything else.

[Tim Miller]

All right, so after JD Intervenes, why aren't you thanking us? Why aren't you thanking us after he's thanked us 100 million times?

[Bill Crystal]

He literally attacked Trump and repeatedly went out of his way. Having been treated pretty badly by Trump, I got to say, try to be respectful and thank him. But anyway, yeah, yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Here's then Trump changing his tune.

[Donald Trump]

But you have nice ocean and don't feel now, but you will feel it in the future. God bless you.

[JD Vance]

Don't know that.

[Donald Trump]

God bless you. Bless you.

[JD Vance]

Don't tell us what we're going to feel. We're trying to solve a problem. Don't tell us what we're going to feel.

[Donald Trump]

I'm not telling you because you're in.

[JD Vance]

No position to dictate that. You're in no position to dictate what we're going to feel. We're going to feel very good. We're going to feel very good and very strong.

[Donald Trump]

You will feel influenced.

[JD Vance]

You're right now not in a very good position. You've allowed yourself to be in a very bad position. And he happens to be right about it.

[Donald Trump]

From the very beginning of the war.

[Bill Crystal]

You'Re not in a good position.

[JD Vance]

You don't have the cards right now.

[Tim Miller]

The Trump thing kind of reminds me of like, a couple that is fighting that when they have had a couple too many to drink, Trump's just like, don't tell me how to feel. The fight isn't about anything. Think. Right? Like, Trump just lashes out at him and, you know, again starts berating him, then gets into this metaphor about the cards and, like, it's not. I don't think he even understands what Zelensky is trying to say. Like, Zelensky's point is that, like, I didn't have the cards from day one. Everybody thought we were going to lose this war in three days. And, like, we fought and we fought. And I guess Trump just doesn't think about it from anybody's perspective, besides his own feelings, I guess.

[Bill Crystal]

Right. And they're the feelings of a bully. So when Zelensky refuses to grovel, that sets Trump off. And there he was lecturing Zelensky. I mean, almost really unimaginable, I would say, that this was happening in the Oval Office. And I was struck, I'm sure you were, by. I didn't see it. I was at a conference. I saw it shortly after. But the number of texts and emails I had from people, including people who aren't that political, people I haven't been in touch with that much. People who were slightly more Trump adjacent than I. I guess that's the very low bar. But who are somewhat Trump adjacent, you know, and acquiescent people were just sickened, as one person said to me, by the spectacle of American president and vice president lecturing Zelensky, who We have all supported and correctly supported for two and a half or three. Well, three years. Exactly three years, right.

[Tim Miller]

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[JD Vance]

You have to be thankful you don't have the cars. You're buried there, your people are dying, you're running low on soldiers.

[Donald Trump]

Listen, don't play.

[JD Vance]

You're running slow on soldiers. It would be a damn good thing. Then you tell us, I don't want to cease fire. I don't want a ceasefire. I want to go. And I wanted this. Look, if you could get a ceasefire right now, I tell you, you take it so the bullets stop flying. And you meant stuff getting killed.

[Donald Trump]

Of course we want to stop the war.

[JD Vance]

But I'm saying you don't want to see. I want to see.

[Donald Trump]

Guaranteed.

[Tim Miller]

Because you for just the audio listeners, for people who have not suffered through watching the videotape of this, when Trump is doing the. He, like, does a Zelensky imitation there, where he's going, I don't want to cease fire. I don't want to cease fire. And he's like, he's making a face. And it is about the most childish scene that you could possibly imagine inside the Oval Office in that little bit.

[Bill Crystal]

Horrible.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, I got one more, Bill.

[Bill Crystal]

I'm sorry.

[Tim Miller]

We got one more.

[Bill Crystal]

Yeah, you're really putting me through, making me suffer here, you know, I am.

[Tim Miller]

Making you suffer and making the listeners we have it must be listened to. Like, it is outrageous. I rewatched the whole 48 minutes this morning because in the clips, it is appalling and shocking, but just like, watching the contour of the conversation just completely derail and like, let's be honest, just JD And Trump losing their cool. This is why I just, I guess I object a little bit to, like, the fact that it was a setup, because I, I think that clearly they had prepared, you know, how J.D. was going to go at him. But, like, the degree to which these two just, like, lost their cool and start shouting, like, about their feelings and. And about, you know, needing to be thanked. And then it closes here with, like, something that it. That could have been. And it would almost be too rude to Newsmax to explain what is next here as being a segment on Newsmax. And it is on the. It is a rant from the furthest, most idiotic realms of the fever swamps. And it's the President of the United States. Let's listen to the last bit.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

She's asking, what if Russia breaks the ceasefire?

[JD Vance]

What if they. What if anything? What if a bomb drops on your head right now? Okay, what if they broke it? I don't know. They broke it with Biden because Biden didn't respect him. They didn't respect Obama. They respect me. Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me. He went through a phony witch hunt where they used him and Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia. You ever hear of that deal? That was a phony. That was a phony Hunter Biden, Joe Biden scam, Hillary Clinton, shifty Adam Schiff. It was a Democrat scam, and he had to go through that. And he did go through it. We didn't end up in a war, and he went through it. He was accused of all that stuff. He had nothing to do with it. It came out of Hunter Biden's Bathroom. It came out of Hunter Biden's bedroom. It was disgusting.

[Tim Miller]

What is he even talking about? Like, what came out of Hunter Biden's bedroom?

[Bill Crystal]

I guess the laptop. He's conflating the Biden laptop, I suppose, with the alleged Russia hoax. But I think it's very revealing. I think he does lose it there. I don't think that's part of the intention of it. I susp. Very revealing that he thinks Putin went through it with him. He and Putin are buddies, they are allies, they were unfairly besmirched. They are together in this fight. I mean, he just explicitly says that there's no more of the pretense of I'm a hard headed guy negotiating with Putin. And there are some problems with what Russia's been doing at some point in the world or maybe at some point in the 2016 election after all? Nope. One forgets in 2016 he asked Russia to intervene. I mean, this has been. But this is the full flowering, I'd say, of not just the abandonment of Zelenskyy, but the embrace of Putin.

[Tim Miller]

Yes, that is the correct insight. It is a tantrum by somebody that feels emotionally connected at some level to Putin, I guess maybe in his imagination. Right? Like this notion that Putin somehow went through the Russia hoax. Putin was laughing through the whole thing. Putin's gotten everything that he wanted the whole time. He got a kick out of the Russia hoax. It achieved its ends. I'm saying Russia hoax and scare quotes here. But like his interference in the election, it achieved his ends of dividing the country. It created a quasi legitimacy in Trump or the challenging of his legitimacy. He got the person in there that he preferred who allowed him free reign to continue to expand his power. Putin has got everything that he wanted out of all of this, up to and until when Ukraine started fighting back after he invaded Kiev. Like Trump has like constructed this imaginary other world where Putin was like him, besieged by shifty Adam Schiff and the media and a shadowy cabal.

[Bill Crystal]

You don't think Putin was really wounded, you know, suffering, you know, psychologically. Had a tough time with Adam Schiff, criticized him. Yet it's funny. Trump is a thin skinned bully and he sort of wants to believe Putin is too. He must know at some level that Putin is infinitely tougher than he is and couldn't care less what Adam Schiff says and cares about results, not about feelings. But that is interesting, the psychology of that, right? Trump wants, he wants to put himself on the same level as Putin. He knows that he's not.

[Tim Miller]

It Also just kind of ties into the whole manliness, masculinity conversation that they're all having, right? That it's like there is some notion that that kind of performative temper tantrum, the bullying, the talking down, the condescending to Zelensky is going to reveal themselves to be the tough ones rather than the ones like beset by their emotional distress and trying to intimidate somebody who's actually shown real courage. But I guess it seems to be like landing with at least their own voters.

[Bill Crystal]

I mean, I think that's such an important point that, I mean, Trump and J.D. vance would not have stayed in Kyiv on February 25, 2022. They would have been on the first plane out and they and their families and whatever, you know, buddies they have in various schemes and grifts and so forth, they would have been leaving from wherever there was danger. At some level, there's a deep resentment of Zelensky for actually being courageous and manly and in his, you know, slightly understated way, you might say, I think the not wearing the suit is a comical MAGA complaint too, which normally they like informality, authenticity. Right. You know, but. But in this case, they have Trump's the guy who wears the suit, and Vance in this case. So they have to turn it against Zelensky that like church in 19, when he came to the White House in 1941, 42, 43, wore his kind of battle, you might say battle fatigues.

[Tim Miller]

In effect, the follow up from this, the minerals deal is not signed. What happens is after the temper tantrum that is thrown by the President and Vice President, they retreat to their separate quarters. Trump and his team stays in the Oval Office. Zelenskyy and his goes to. I forget what other room they went to, Holden. And then rather than go talk to Zelenskyy himself, Trump sends Waltz and Rubio in. We saw the continued shrinkening of little Marco Rubio who had to go and tell Zelensky to leave. Later that day, high level administration sources said that military aid is now in question. And the quote is, they're fortunate it is not off already. So that's kind of where things stand on the deal. And then yesterday on Sunday, European leaders met without us, was in London, was France, Germany, Canada, UK they met their signal that they're doubling down on supporting Ukraine and maybe boosting military aid. But obviously there's a lot of frustration and hard feelings at the White House. So what say you about the current state of play?

[Bill Crystal]

No, it's a big moment. It's the Continuation of what we saw already two weeks ago, obviously, with the Trump Putin phone call, the Hegseth and JD Vance speeches, there would be a visit to Riyadh. This is kind of the culmination of it, I would say, the betrayal of Ukraine. There was no fresh military aid coming from Trump anyway. The idea that he's cutting it off because Zelenskyy was disrespectful is, in a way, I think, ridiculous. Maybe he'll stop some of the aid that's already in the pipeline. I suppose the degree to which the Europeans saw right away what was happening is striking. A friend sent me some headlines from German newspapers on Saturday, and they saw this was not just about Ukraine, it was about fundamental pivot of American foreign policy. Forget about NATO, forget about Europe, forget about defending democracy. He's with Putin. He'll be cutting deals with Putin in accord with what he sees to be their interests. German foreign minister had a terrific speech where she said how terrifying and terrible it was that America joined the side of the perpetrators, not the victims of aggression and of crimes. And so Europe understood right away. Russia understood. There's a good article in the Washington Post this morning quoting the various Putin spokespeople and allies about how happy they are. It was a gift. The whole thing is why everything's wonderful. These are basically. We don't even have to.

[Tim Miller]

I've got this here. This is Peskov. Yeah. Peskov says the new administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations. This largely aligns with our vision spokesman, and that's that.

[Bill Crystal]

That's the truth. And they're happy. You know, it's interesting. They want to rub it in. Right. They don't want to give Trump a lot of dignity. They don't mind humiliating him a little, but maybe they think that makes it even more susceptible to being pushed around further. And I'm not so sure they're going to make a deal. So they may want to also sort of get ready to really just try to conquer all of Ukraine and dare Trump to do anything, which they seem pretty convinced he won't. So the Europeans are in a state, correctly. We'll see if they can help Ukraine defend itself. I'm worried about six months or 18 or 24 months from now that they decide we're over here, the US has walked away. We better cut our own deals with Russia, start the energy going again. And you can imagine a very bad cascade of appeasement. But I've got to say, to their credit, that has not been happening yet. Their reaction's been the opposite. They do not want to betray Ukraine. And Zelensky is not going to give up and Ukraine's not going to give up. But sustaining the world order without the US on side, asking the Europeans to do it and our Asian friends to do it, that's a tall task. I would have been very skeptical it could happen a year ago. Now I think maybe they can do it for a while, at least until we come back on side. The other point I'll make just is that Congress could act to mitigate some of the damage, but that would require a few Republicans having some courage. And we haven't seen a lot of that, did we, this weekend? We saw a couple, right?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I mean, Don bacon was on 60 Minutes, I guess. But I mean, the next time that he does something actually substantive rather than just with his words will be the first time. So we'll believe it when I see it.

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[Tim Miller]

I mean, just kind of gaming this out. As you sort of talked about the potential ways that it could develop as far as Europe is concerned. Just think about the position Trump is in now. The sticking point that really undergirded this disagreement, beyond JD Vance just wanting to be a condescending douche, the actual substantive sticking point was that Zelensky is trying to say I need security guarantees that we can't trust Putin. If you make a deal, we might make a deal. And then who knows, a few months later he props up another reason to make an incursion somewhere or whatever, test the deal. I need security guarantees. And Trump didn't want to do that, didn't want to give those. And from our position now, it's like even if Zelensky comes back tail between his legs. Mark Thiessen is writing in the Washington Post Opinion page today. It's unclear today whether this whether sucking up to Trump fits under free markets or personal liberties in the new rubric on the Washington Post opinion page. But he wrote that Zelensky must suck up to Trump for the good of his country and must come back and must get on Trump's good side and blah, blah, blah. Even if that happened, there's not really a situation where you could trust either side of a security guarantee if you're Zelensky.

[Bill Crystal]

Right?

[Tim Miller]

Like maybe you have to do such a deal anyway and it's just pragmatic, hope for the best, you know, you know, cross the next bridge when you get there type situation. But like, you know, it's hard to really conceive that Donald Trump is going to offer any real security even if we have some skin in the game with rare earth minerals or whatever.

[Bill Crystal]

I mean, totally. That's really a key point. I mean, who would trust Trump? Let's say there's a fake peace agreement and even Russia gets some additional territory or something and they're doing horrible things in the territory they have, and then they have a fake excuse for an incursion. What is Trump going to do? I mean, but this is where the Europeans saw this too and saw that just to take that to the next step. What is NATO anymore? NATO depends on Article 5 and on the assumption that we're all in. If someone's attacked, will Trump act if the Russians do a little green men thing in Estonia, will Trump act if the Russians try to subvert governments of NATO members as they have been trying in Romania and elsewhere? I mean, the degree to which the whole post war structure is at risk, not just Ukraine, I mean, that, I think is what the Europeans saw right away. And that's where they're really talking pretty seriously again. I can't quite believe they can sustain a security arrangement without the US being the anchor. That's been the case. We have been for 80 years. Maybe they will. The incoming chancellor merits is talking that way. They are increasing defense spending. It looks like they're going to. We'll see. I'm very worried that that's hard to sustain. They'll have their own domestic politics. Parties in Europe are going to say, what are we doing here? America's gone in the other direction. We need to go that way too. So I'm very worried about that. And as you were saying, how much is Congress going to do? In theory, Europe and Congress could sort of make up for a US President maybe, but we haven't had to run this experiment for 80 years. Right. We haven't had a situation where an American president fundamentally wants to just destroy the post World War II order.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, and we talked about this with Susan Glasser on the show a couple of episodes ago and she makes the same point about Estonia. And it's like it's impossible to fathom, right? Like at this point that Trump would come to the defense of one of these other NATO countries. I mean, maybe, who the hell knows, right? The last person in his ear at the right moment ends up being somebody, somebody that flatters them in the right kind of way. But there's certainly no reason to have any belief that we would. And that does call into question the whole NATO agreement at this point. Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning the war is ongoing. Russia launched an attack on Kharkiv yesterday that injured eight, including a seven year old child. And I think that that is important to point out because the Trump advance side of this argument is kind of, it's premised on this notion that Russia is behaving. We're not even asking anything from Russia. Russia is not the problem child. Here's Ukraine. That's the problem. And if we just decide to come to the table, then it'll all be good. Putin will do what we ask. And that is in total conflict with what is actually, actually happen.

[Bill Crystal]

And I think was it Friday or Saturday that the Washington Post reported that under Pete Hegseth but somebody with Trump sign off. The Defense Department has stopped a program that was trying to both deal with Russian cyber offenses and other kinds of sort of, well, you know, those kinds of offenses, let's say non kinetic offenses here in the US and also we had some counter offenses presumably going on to disrupt their stuff and they seem to have called that off. So basically we're not considering Russia an enemy anymore. I mean, how long can the sanctions last once you have this attitude? I mean, why should Trump even keep them on at this point? He has no. What's the reason? What's he asking for? What's he punishing Putin for? One thing that really alarmed me about the article in the Post. It's a little murky and I'd be curious to see follow up reporting. It feels like we're also letting down all our defenses against Russian intervention in the 2026 or 2028 elections. I mean, why do we have, let's go back. Why do we have this concern with Russian cyber and social media type activities? I think we have good reasons to have those concerns. Well, as Trump said in 2016, he wanted Russia to intervene. Right. What did he say? Please release the emails. Well, I guess that was about the stolen emails with WikiLeaks But Trump, he likes Putin because he likes Putin. He likes authoritarians. He also likes Putin because he himself wants to be an authoritarian here. And he thinks Putin might well be a useful ally to have in that effort.

[Tim Miller]

What it said was that Hegseth ordered the US Cyber Command to stand down all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions, according to three people familiar with the matter. So we'll see. But I think your point is well taken, that if you just accept the Trump framework presented at the press conference and since, and frankly at the speech JD Vance gave in Europe, et cetera, if you accept their framework, there is no rationale for sanctions on Russia. Right. Like the sanctions on Russia are there because of their invasion into to Ukraine and because of their actions targeting our elections. Trump thinks that those were a hoax and that Ukraine was asking for it because they were wearing their skirt too short. So they've put themselves in a box. Maybe they want to be in this box, but they've put themselves in a position where it makes it very challenging for them to even make the case in a way that is coherent for changing course beyond the course, the very Russia favorable course that they're on. So we have tariffs also happening tonight. Maybe. We'll see. Trump insisted that the tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico will go into effect Tuesday because of fentanyl, I guess, and he also doubled the tariffs on China to 20%. The question is whether he will once again do the I'm giving you a reprieve because you're sending Mounties to the border thing with Canada or Mexico. Howard Lutnick floated yesterday on Fox the commerce secretary that Trump is considering reducing the tariffs down from 25% TBD. I guess you don't want to keep going around and around here with their little Kabuki theater act, but I do think that they're in a tenuous spot economically. I think that's actually really the more relevant point here. The market has not been doing well. Market's been coming back down. A lot of concerns. The Atlanta Fed projections for GDP growth last week, way down from where they were after Trump was elected. And you know, so this kind of stuff is going to have real impact. And eventually, again, it's similar to this box that I'm talking about with Russia. He's like rhetorically put himself in a box where he's going to have to do these things at some point, you would think, or else he would feel weak and humiliated. But I don't know. We'll see.

[Bill Crystal]

Yeah, I don't Know, I mean, the tariffs thing is the most bewildering in the sense that that just seems genuinely to be his obsession. And I don't even think it's really a bit of big MAGA obsession particularly. And if you combine it with slightly rising inflation, which looks to be the case, and slightly rising unemployment, which could be the case, that could really hurt the economy. It's interesting question. What do you think, Demi? If the economy is weaker six months from now, does that make Trump revert to more normie Republicanism or does it increase his temptation and tendency to go in a sort of real authoritarian direction?

[Tim Miller]

It's a great question and one that I've been thinking about, and my gut says that it would lead to panic, right. And lashing out and moving more towards the authoritarian direction. I don't know. I guess it kind of depends on how bad it is, right? But if it's just kind of somewhat bad and things are, you know, muddling along and things are not great on the margins, and you know, he's got rich guys in his ear saying, okay, this is hurting us too much, you got to back off it. We got to get the tax cut through that, I could see that as a possible outcome here. But if things get really hairy, right, like you can get to a point of hairiness where like getting rid of the tariffs and passing a tax cut or whatever doesn't really remediate the problem. Right. And so I think that the worse things get, the more unhinged he would get and the more he would move towards even further down the authoritarian path, I guess is my instinct. I don't know. And this is the thing about the first Trump term is pre Covid, he got pretty lucky. There weren't a lot of forces outside of his control that created crises, really. And Covid, like we saw just a massive panic and foul up. And so I kind of think that Covid, what we saw during COVID is kind of what we would, what we'd see here, but I don't know, who knows? What do you make of that?

[Bill Crystal]

And maybe what we saw after, you know, November 3rd or January 6th.

[Tim Miller]

Right?

[Bill Crystal]

No, I think we just again have to come back to how the first Trump term featured James Mattis, the Secretary of Defense, and Tillerson, what everyone thought of him. But then Pompeo, Secretary of State and Bolton in there and the white McMaster, then Bolton. I mean, such a different cast of characters. A Republican Party that still had some memory that they were supposed to act as members of Congress and not simply as Trump lackeys. I mean, they were pretty bad, don't get me wrong. But it's so different. That's, I guess, what strikes one the most. Marco Rubio pathetically trying to climb into Trump's stay in. I guess Trump's not even good graces, but enough graces that he doesn't get fired tomorrow by those pathetic statement they put out afterwards. And then Lindsey Graham, too. What was striking about those two statements is they really were Stalinists, or Stalinoid, I guess is the word, in the sense that it wasn't just look, it's, you know, Trump was, did the right thing and Zelensky has to come. It wasn't Mark Teasen. Zelensky has to come around. We still have a chance to make this all work, but Zelensky has to be a nicer guy. That would be bad, but that would be a kind of coherent point statement by someone who is pro Trump but does actually want to help Ukraine. They did not go that way. Right. They really were all in to show Trump that Trump had said Zelensky was a threat to peace or couldn't be a partner for peace. And we're saying the exact same thing. And then Lindsey says something about we just may have to, to in effect get rid of Zelensky. So we are. I mean, the degree to which they felt they had to abase themselves is, I think, very sadly, very revealing. But, yeah, in terms of the authoritarianism, I don't know. Yeah, he triples the, really triples down on the deportations, more of them to go on to Honomo, more horrible treatment of them, more raids. I mean, you can imagine very ugly scenarios in that area in immigration as well as in others. And what if it does come out and say that some of these Doge efforts, I don't know, God forbid, what if a real public health, real current, quick public health effect, I think the indirect effects are terrible for what our biomedical research capability will be five years from now and what kinds of people who will go into those things and keeping decent people in government. There are a million problems, but what if Ebola gets loose in Africa or something? I mean, the degree to which Trump is not the type to say, gee, I guess we made a mistake, we need to restore this stuff. Maybe he would. He's done that a couple of cases, I guess, in the last two, three weeks. I don't know. What do you think?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean, he doesn't like bad news. The thing that has always protected us the most from disaster with Trump is like, he does have a hole in his heart where he wants to be loved. He plays the role of tough guy who doesn't care, but he really does. And so there have been several occasions where he got bad news and then you kind of back off, do some face saving things. So I'm not saying that he wouldn't do that, but, but I guess my point is sometimes problems get out of your control. Right.

[Bill Crystal]

It doesn't matter whether he backs off at that point.

[Tim Miller]

Right, exactly. One more thing on the Doge. Sam Stein's reporting this in the Morning Shots newsletter this morning. People should sign up for Nick Enrich, who is the acting assistant Administrator for Global Health at usaid. He was placed on administrative leave for disseminating memos outlining the failure of the Trump administration to follow through on its pledge to allow waivers for certain types of life saving foreign aid. He sent another memo that the Bulwark received. And I mean, it's pretty alarming just talking about like the degree to which these cuts are going to have massive ramifications for children, malnourished children, pregnant women, obviously people with HIV and AIDS in Africa. And you know, again, this is a situation where Trump allowed Musk to go do the cuts. Rubio had said that he wanted to reinstate certain types of aid and it's not happening. It's not getting reinstated. The damage is happening. And the guy that's blowing the whistle on it, instead of them backing off more and trying to put in place the waivers that Rubio wanted, the guy's getting put on administrative lead. I mean, I think that's a pretty alarming example of what we'd expect to see.

[Bill Crystal]

I've been thinking a little about how sort of what the domestic policy and foreign policy sides have in common. And it does seem to be a similar kind of just utter recklessness and cavalier attitude towards existing structures. Again, one can imagine some of these areas of aid and NIH and so forth saying, look, we really want to save money. We want to weed out a third, a half, two thirds of some of what's being spent in some of these programs. We're going to do it in a systematic way. And a year from now, you'll see progress. Two years from now. Usually presidents have a four year horizon, right? Four years from now we'll be down 60%. You guys will be really pleased and you won't notice anything because you know what, a lot of this money was wasted and was spent on DEI and on WOKE stuff and all this. That's the normal thing you do. Leaving Aside whether they would have been right, that the money is wasted, the recklessness, the pleasure they take in the slashing, in leaving pregnant women without care in Africa or in firing civil servants, or who've worked hard for X number of years with no notice, I mean, which again, is utterly unnecessary. The amount of money at stake is minute compared to giving them not renewing their contracts for people a year from now or treating people in a decent way. They like the cruelty of Doge, they like the cruelty in a way of bullying Zelensky. But the recklessness in both cases, assuming that things won't just really go bad in the world or at home, is what the foreign domestic policies have got. Elon's Doge and Trump's treatment of Zelensky are sort of parallel in some ways. And I don't know, we're a big strong country, we could survive a lot of bad things and maybe six months from now it won't feel that different in people's lives. But I'm not so sure about that, really. I'm very struck. It's the number of people I've talked to. I don't know if you found this not political people. I'm here in D.C. so I hear more of them. The brain drain and the character drain we're going to have from the US government. Two people in the military, friends of friends, I don't know them, wanted to come see me privately thought maybe give them some advice. I don't know if I really have much good advice. They're, you know, mid career, rising stars in the military, young people, a little younger even than you. And they were going to stay in, they assumed, and then make that their profession, for they hoped, I think, to become, you know, general officers, very high up. And now they don't. Do they want to be there with this stuff going on? Do they want to have to weigh whether they have to obey orders that they think might be unlawful? Awful. But they won't have a JAG to help tell them that because they fired the Jags and they're putting in compliant people, presumably the number of people. This is the military. Then there's public health and there's a million other things, right? I mean, the Justice Department, the degree to which, whatever one thinks of the civil service, the military, the civilians at DoD, the public health establishment, they all are not perfect, God knows. But the degree to which we're putting it all at risk. And again, for what? For what? I mean, because they have.

[Tim Miller]

For what?

[Bill Crystal]

That's what I don't understand. Really, honestly, though, I mean, you know.

[Tim Miller]

Enjoyment of other people's suffering, I guess. Right. I mean, for, you know, to. To be able to say that they are going after these shadowy elites that people hate, I. I guess as part of their, like, imaginary Internet war. Like, really, I think is the answer, like that. That they are on the other side of this kind of, like, imaginary culture battle, that they think that they're fighting through tweets. And I, like, I don't know. I don't know. Because it's not. Not about balancing the budget. We know that based on that.

[Bill Crystal]

No, they're not. They're not earnest libertarians who have convinced themselves excessively that the private sector will do this better. And we've got some studies here from, you know, Cato and somewhat at AI showing there's not. That's not the spirit in which it's being. That might be dangerous in its own way, but that's not the spirit in which that was Reagan to some degree. That's not the spirit in which this is being done. You know.

[Tim Miller]

In addition to recklessness, the one also hallmark of Trumpism is the corruption. So we should close by talking about the crypto scam, which I think might end up being the biggest scam in the history of American politics. To show you my sense for things this morning, like, where I was at, I was going back to the Teapot Dome scandal. I was like, how much money was involved in the Teapot Dome scandal? It turns out it was $400,000 at the time was the bribe, which is about 6 million in current dollars. So not nothing. I mean, that's a big. That is a big scandal. That was certainly, you know, something worth creating controversy and firings over and ignominy. But what is happening in crypto is going to be unbelievable compared to that. Like 1020, 100x. Here is the announcement. Trump put up a US crypto reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden administration. Every accusation is a confession, which is why my executive order on Digital assets directed the presidential working group to move forward on a crypto strategic reserve that includes these three particular currencies. Then he adds to the thread later, because I guess probably somebody who had money in Bitcoin or Ethereum was mad that they were not specifically singled out. Maybe his son Eric. So he adds, and obviously bitcoin and Ethereum as other valuable cryptocurrencies will be the heart of the reserve. I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum. Exclamation point. How is this the fucking President of the United States that is sending this, this is like a late night television scam level rhetoric here about his support for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Eric Trump had tweeted last week about crypto buy the diploma exclamation point, which seems a little bit like some insider trading knowledge to me. I don't know. I guess we would leave that up to the totally toothless SEC to look into. But just to sum this up in the way that is the most simple. The theory of the case here is that cryptocurrencies are so valuable, this digital gold, so to speak, is going to be so valuable in the future that the United States needs to. The United States government needs to purchase and hold massive quantities of several different types of Bitcoin to hold in some kind of digital Fort Knox that we need to have for who knows, God knows what in the future to ensure that the United States has enough of these supposed currencies in order to, I don't know, deal with some future crypto related crisis. It is an absurd proposition. Bitcoin and Ethereum have some value. Some of these other ones have no value. It is literally like buying the US Government buying pet rocks or Beanie Babies or something and being like, we're going to hold these in a strategic reserve somewhere to make sure that in the future we have enough babies for the Beanie market. And it is a preposterous scheme that is going to enrich Trump family. The Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick and his family are very deeply invested in this. David Sacks, who is the crypto czar, says that he divested from crypto, but it's unclear exactly what all that leads to. I mean, there's like no words for the preposterousness of this proposed plan. So I don't know. Do you have any words for me?

[Bill Crystal]

No, you've described it very well. Someone said this would be illegal in every country in the world. This is not like, oh, the US has very strict rules. We have, you know, we have sec. This is just slightly more relaxed attitude. This is just stealing money from the taxpayer or from Marx or from, I suppose the Marx who didn't know when they were supposed to buy and when they were supposed to sell on these exchanges.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, the Trump coin you're stealing from the Marx, which is bad enough in itself. The fact that our President is running a massive pump and dump operation to steal money from regular people in order to enrich himself and also to create a fund where other people can Bribe him, including possibly Chinese nationals like Justin sun, who put in tens of millions of dollars into Trump's various digital Griffs. And now the SEC is no longer prosecuting him. Convenient. I had this guy Jason Calacanis on the podcast a while back and some of the listeners maybe might not have been their favorite episode for some of them because Jason was Trump curious. I guess I would call him not really pro Trump, but certainly not anti Trump to the degree that we are. He's a tech guy. He has a podcast, including he's on a podcast with the Trump crypto czar, David Sacks. So I think this is interesting because him and David have a relationship and he wrote this. It's a terrible idea to spend taxpayer money buying the crypto bags of the people who donated many millions to him. It's even worse idea to pick winners, pick random cryptocurrencies to invest in. He puts it like this. Why not a US Strategic tech reserve where we buy Apple, Google and Microsoft shares? Why not a real estate strategic reserve where we buy real estate assets from huge companies? When you put it in these kind of contexts, like, you just see how ridiculous this is. And the people that are going to benefit from this are the people that have invested their money in these currencies, made big, these, they're not currencies, but like made big bets into these crypto assets. And like now, thanks to the taxpayers, like they're going to see a huge return. We've already seen it this morning. Like all these currencies that Trump named are up 10%. So if you like, listen to Eric Trump last week when he said buy the dip, you've made now 10%. Just on the speculation side of it, like, imagine the amount of money these guys would make if we really put US taxpayer dollars into their worthless cryptocurrencies. It's like truly, I guess that's just like, I mean, at least in Teapot Dome they were selling land that existed to drill oil in for cash. I mean, it was, it was just a good old fashioned corruption. You know, I'm going to give you something in exchange for cash. In this case, we're just giving people's taxpayer dollars away for not in exchange for essentially nothing so that a bunch of people can make a lot of money. It's truly astonishing.

[Bill Crystal]

Do you think the kleptocratic and plutocratic side of this Trump, second Trump administration. It was always there, obviously in the first one, but so much more visible and shameless and massive.

[Tim Miller]

Just think about his whole career to.

[Bill Crystal]

Me, they could pay some political price for that, or what do you think?

[Tim Miller]

I think potentially. No, of course I think they could pay a political price for this. I mean, some crypto people are going to like it, so get some political benefit from among some. Some corners. But, like, of course I think that they could end up playing political price. A lot of people didn't sign up for this. And again, Trump somehow was able to maintain the reputation of being the apprentice business guy Trump, rather than being the guy that went bankrupt in casinos and had a fake university and had all these other pyramid schemes and other things that he was involved in. So, like, I do think that the second Trump term could end up looking, you know, being the Trump university of terms where all of his scams crumble around us. Unfortunately, you know, he would suffer a political price for that, but a lot of us are gonna suffer, too. So there you go, Bill. Any other final thoughts?

[Bill Crystal]

No, that was well said.

[Tim Miller]

All right, everybody else, it's Mardi Gras. Are you ready to celebrate? Are you ready to celebrate your beads? I'm gonna. Am I gonna do an uplifting episode tomorrow? I don't know, probably not. But we'll have some fun Mardi Gras music to go with the episode. We'll see you all back here then. Have a good one. Peace.

[Unknown Speaker]

You could thank me now. Go ahead, thank me later. Yeah, I know what I said, but later doesn't always come. So instead it's a. Okay, you can thank me now. Yeah, well, all right, here I go. My hollow from the hardest act to follow Lately I've been drinking like there's a message in the bottle A low highs to women with no ties to men that I know well that way there are no lies. You could thank me now for all the info I give to you, nigga, I'm on the break of influential I'm here for you niggas. I guess a hit doesn't add up to a career for you niggas. I must have been hard to watch. What a year for you niggas. It's December 31st and we in Miami just meditatin, you got your resolutions, we just got reservations living out a dream it feels like I stayed up and we just wanna party Pat rhymes straight up, fuck that old shit, I'm on new things OVO clique, red wing, boot gang yeah, we want it all half was never the agreement Who'da thought the route we chosen would ever end up is scenic? I could relate to kids going straight to the league when they recognize that you got what it takes to succeed. And that's around the time that your idols become your rivals. You make friends with Mike. I gotta AI em for your survival. Damn, I swear sports and music are so synonymous? Cause we want, want to be them and they want to be us? Yeah? So on behalf of the demanded and the entertainment that you take for granted? You could thank me now? And oh my goodness, you're welcome. You're welcome. At this point, me is who I'm trying to save myself from? Rappers hit me up and I never know what to tell them? Cause they think that I can help them get back to where they felt from? But drink up? Cause everyone here is good tonight? Except the niggas that I came with? They good for life? Yeah, that's how you know it's going down? In case another chance never comes around? You could thank me now? Go ahead, thank me later? Yeah, I know what I said? But later doesn't always come? So instead it's okay? You could thank me now?

[Tim Miller]

The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.