The Bulwark Podcast: Bill Kristol - Maybe It's Dobbs, After All

In this episode of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller engages in a compelling discussion with political strategist and commentator Bill Kristol. Their conversation delves into the intricacies of the upcoming presidential election, focusing on polling methodologies, the significant impact of the Dobbs decision on abortion rights, former President Donald Trump's recent behavior and its implications, as well as the persistent shadow of Jeffrey Epstein's allegations linked to Trump. The episode culminates with insightful predictions about the election outcome and reflections on the ongoing fight for liberal democracy.

1. Introduction and Context

The podcast opens with Tim Miller referencing Vice President Kamala Harris's final rally in Michigan, setting the stage for a deep dive into the current political climate. The atmosphere is charged with anticipation as the election approaches, and both hosts prepare to unpack the myriad factors that could influence voter behavior.

2. Polling in Iowa: Anne Seltzer's Accuracy and Methodologies

A significant portion of the discussion centers around Iowa pollster Anne Seltzer, renowned for her accurate predictions in past elections.

• Historical Accuracy: Kristol highlights Seltzer’s track record, noting her accurate predictions in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, where she accounted for Trump’s performance with impressive precision. He states, "[She] was right on the money with Trump's margin, I think seven and eight points right in 2016 and 2020." ([02:36])

• Methodological Approaches: The conversation delves into Seltzer's polling techniques, emphasizing her direct approach in Iowa. Unlike national pollsters who rely heavily on modeling, Seltzer engages in consistent, on-the-ground polling without over-relying on past election data. Kristol remarks, "She asked people who they're for, are they going to vote and who are they? For now, Iowa, they have better response rates." ([04:08])

• Implications for Other States: While acknowledging Iowa's unique polling environment, Kristol and Miller debate the extent to which Seltzer's findings can be extrapolated to other swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Kristol posits, "If she’s moving the right direction in Iowa, even if it’s not as much as Seltzer says, that augurs almost certainly well for Wisconsin." ([07:13])

3. The Dobbs Decision and Its Electoral Impact

A pivotal topic is the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, significantly altering the abortion landscape in the United States.

• Salience in Voter Minds: Both hosts agree that Dobbs has become a central issue, particularly in battleground states. Miller notes, "The abortion issue has probably been underrated this year, even in states where it's not sort of quite in people's face." ([05:45])

• Policy Influence on Voting: Kristol emphasizes that Dobbs isn't just a background issue but one that directly affects voters' decisions. He asserts, "Dobbs is actually a big thing that happened in the last cycle... it has the elements of what makes an issue a voting issue." ([15:00])

• Campaign Strategies: The discussion shifts to how Dobbs has been handled by both parties. Kristol criticizes Republicans for failing to neutralize the issue, suggesting that their fragmented response has left voters unsettled. He states, "Republicans have done an awful job at taking the air out of the issue. Just awful." ([16:52])

• Gender and Control Dynamics: Exploring deeper societal themes, Kristol connects the Dobbs decision to broader issues of control and gender dynamics in politics. He mentions, "The idea... it's kind of also about control." ([31:58])

4. Donald Trump’s Recent Behavior and Statements

The episode critically examines former President Trump's recent actions and rhetoric, assessing their potential impact on the election.

• Aggressive Rhetoric: Kristol highlights Trump's unsettling statements, including his fantasizing about violence against enemies. He references a clip where Trump says, "And I have this piece of glass here, but all we have really over here is the fake news... somebody would have to shoot through the fake news." ([20:25])

• Perceived Unraveling: Both hosts discuss the notion that Trump might be "unraveling," contrasting his demeanor with Harris's composed campaigning. Kristol observes, "You can imagine a world where they're offering, look, you know, we're going to change the course... But like that message, just in contrast to everything that Donald Trump puts out... it just doesn't work." ([23:06])

• Impact on Voter Sentiment: The conversation speculates that Trump's contentious behavior could alienate voters, especially when compared to his more cohesive 2016 and 2020 campaigns.

5. Jeffrey Epstein Allegations and Their Ramifications

Addressing another contentious issue, the hosts delve into the allegations linking Trump to Jeffrey Epstein and the broader implications for his candidacy.

• Consistency of Allegations: Kristol points out the repetitive and consistent nature of the sexual assault stories against Trump, aligning them with his behavior as depicted in the Access Hollywood tapes. He states, "All of the Trump sexual assault stories are the same... they're all exactly the same as how Trump described the way that he treats women in the Access Hollywood tapes." ([29:26])

• Cumulative Impact: The discussion underscores how these allegations, coupled with the Epstein connections, present a significant hurdle for Trump, potentially swaying voters who are influenced by moral and ethical considerations.

6. Election Predictions and Outcome Expectations

In the latter part of the podcast, Miller and Kristol offer their predictions on the election outcome, considering the discussed factors.

• Early Vote and Polling Adjustments: They analyze how early voting trends and potential polling inaccuracies could influence projections. Miller expresses confidence in Harris’s chances, citing a "bit of a late break" and optimistic turnout figures. He predicts, "Harris wins and I think we know the winner by... midnight Tuesday night." ([34:17])

• State-by-State Projections: Kristol provides a breakdown of key states like Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan, outlining the timing for when these states' results might be determined. He suggests, "We will probably know Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan... directionally." ([35:32])

• Final Verdict: Both hosts lean towards a Harris victory, anticipating that momentum from issues like Dobbs and Trump's diminishing influence will tip the scales. Kristol optimistically concludes, "We are probably about 40 hours to freedom and we're not going back." ([41:33])

7. Reflections on the Fight for Liberal Democracy

Concluding the episode, Miller and Kristol reflect on their personal commitment to defending liberal democracy amidst a challenging political environment.

• Personal Exhaustion vs. Purpose: While acknowledging fatigue, Miller emphasizes the inspirational aspect of their fight. He shares, "It's been inspiring to fight it with you and with our other colleagues at the Bulwark and with all of our readers and viewers." ([39:50])

• Commitment to the Cause: Kristol echoes this sentiment, expressing unwavering dedication to continue the struggle regardless of the election outcome. He affirms, "I'm going to keep fighting with you until we don't have to fight no more." ([40:46])

8. Notable Quotes

Throughout the episode, several impactful quotes underscore the themes discussed:

• On Polling Shifts:

  • "She asked people who they're for, are they going to vote and who are they?" – Tim Miller ([04:08])

• On Republican Strategy:

  • "Republicans have done an awful job at taking the air out of the issue." – Bill Kristol ([16:52])

• On Trump's Behavior:

  • "And I have this piece of glass here, but all we have really over here is the fake news." – Donald Trump ([20:25])
  • "I shouldn't have left." – Donald Trump ([21:19])

• On Fighting for Democracy:

  • "It's been inspiring to fight it with you and... with all of our readers and viewers." – Tim Miller ([39:50])
  • "I'm going to keep fighting with you until we don't have to fight no more." – Bill Kristol ([40:46])

Conclusion

In this engaging episode, Tim Miller and Bill Kristol navigate the complex landscape of the impending election, dissecting polling data, the ramifications of the Dobbs decision, and the multifaceted challenges posed by Donald Trump's actions and legacy. Their informed predictions and unwavering commitment to defending liberal democracy provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the factors at play, reinforcing the podcast’s mission to offer insightful analysis and steadfast support for liberal democratic values.