The Bulwark Podcast

Episode: Bill Kristol: The Cracks in Trump's Power Are Showing
Date: November 24, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Kristol (Editor-at-large, The Bulwark)

Overview:

This episode dives into shifts and cracks in Donald Trump’s political power, particularly within the MAGA base and GOP, and explores related developments in Congress, foreign policy, and political culture. Host Tim Miller and Bill Kristol analyze Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation, dissent within MAGA, the unraveling of Trump’s fear factor among Republicans, internal strife in the administration, and the struggle over populist vs. elite narratives. The episode also touches on implications for U.S. democracy, corruption, foreign policy (Ukraine, Venezuela), and ends with a lighter discussion on the “Bulwark Podcast Primary” in NY-12.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Departure and MAGA Disunity

• Context: Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG) announces her resignation from Congress, citing Trump’s betrayal of promises to the “common American.”

• Tim Miller (06:12):

  • Reads from MTG’s resignation letter: “No matter which way the political pendulum swings... nothing ever gets better for the common American… Trump has been co-opted by the swamp/the uniparty he campaigned against.”
  • Analysis: MTG’s message resonates because it reflects a deeper malaise and disillusionment among the MAGA base.
  • “It’s unusual that she would resign, and it continues this trend that nobody’s actually willing to take Trump on and stay.” (20:18)

• Bill Kristol (06:22):

  • Predicts MTG will not “go quietly”; she may be preparing for a 2028 run, or even the foundation of a new MAGA party.
  • Points to potential “damage from splits in the MAGA coalition—even if it’s only 3-8%.”
  • Suggests that real consequences are more likely to come from MAGA Republicans breaking away than from wishful thinking about moderate GOPers.

Cracks in Trump’s Fear Factor Among GOP Elites

• Congressional Discontent:

  • Miller reads a quote from a Punchbowl News piece highlighting GOP reps’ frustration:
    • “All that is the sentiment of nearly all appropriators, authorizers, hawks, doves, rank and file… Arrogance of this White House team is off putting…” (08:10)
  • The fear of Trump is morphing into loathing, especially amid losses (Epstein files, union bill); “When the winning stops, the loyalty erodes.” (09:55)

• Bill Kristol (09:55):

  • Emphasizes material congressional defeats (like the Epstein vote and elections in Virginia/New Jersey) matter more than polling fluctuations:
    • “Actual defeats can really make a difference. The combination of polling decline and real setbacks is new.”
  • Warns that moderate GOPers remain mostly compliant—but MAGA breakdown may cause meaningful chaos.

Authoritarianism, Corruption, and Trump’s Power

• Miller (10:56):
  • Argues Trump’s authoritarian ambitions are wounded by public setbacks:
    • “His ability to con his way into more authoritarian power is limited by these series of events.”
• Kristol (12:38):
  • One missed vote can “beget others,” referencing the erosion of Clinton’s control in 1994 and parallels for Trump; regards further defeats as crucial inflection points.

Elite Complicity & Corporate Crowds at the Saudi State Dinner

• Miller & Kristol (27:31-28:32):
  • Express disgust at U.S. business leaders (e.g., Tim Cook, Marc Benioff) attending Trump’s Saudi state dinner:
    • “There’s no reason [for them] to go. It’s not like Trump would punish them if they skipped… to actively choose to go and smile is the part that gets me pissed.”
  • Kristol points out: “So far, the elites show no sign of backing off. If anything, the weaker Trump looks, the more they’ll excuse their participation, hoping it will all be over soon.” (29:17-29:57)

Administration Infighting: Vance, Rubio, and Tucker Carlson World

• Kristol (17:31):
  • Reveals “gossip” about infighting among Trump world administration:
    • “Vance and Rubio not even speaking. Hegseth paranoid. Driscoll repping DoD, not Hegseth.”
  • Vance “can’t antagonize Tucker,” so threads a needle between neo-Nazi adjacent circles and “donor world.” Miller: “Vance has Tucker's kid working for him... defending him on X.” (18:36)
  • Broader point: MAGA world’s internal pressure is causing mistakes and leaks.

The DOGE Fiasco and the End of Trump’s Populist Schtick

• DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency):
  • Miller: The department is now shuttered—caused “damage with zero savings” and “utter failure” (23:25).
  • Critique that Trump and Musk's supposed pro-common man efforts only lead to enriching themselves and elites.
  • Kristol: “It’s a giant corruption scheme up there... and people are getting a sense of that.” (25:51)

Trump-Zoran NYC Meeting: Populist Myths & Media Spin

• Miller highlights the optics of Trump staying seated (presidential-as-monarch pose) during the meeting with incoming NYC mayor Zoran Mamdani.
  • “Trump loves sitting at his desk, everyone else standing—he’s the monarch.” (32:12–33:51, Kristol)
• Miller critiques attempts by the left to paint Trump as a genuine economic populist, calling out DSA-aligned commentator Ryan Grim:
  • “Trump is not substantively in any way a bottom vs. top economic populist. It’s always been fake with him.” (36:45)

Ukraine, Russia, and Venezuela: Foreign Policy Crossroads

• Ukraine:

  • Signs of U.S. government being divided between outright Putin-sympathizer half and a more hesitant half (Kristol, 41:27).
  • Hope that congressional upheaval might finally allow real aid to Ukraine.

• Venezuela Regime Change:

  • U.S. military movements signal preparation for action, but no authorization from Congress.
  • Kristol: “Pretty stunning polling—70% to 30% against war with Venezuela. This could be an issue that splinters MAGA further.” (43:40)
  • Miller: “If Trump proceeds, it would be a massive political mistake, as well as substantively crazy.” (45:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Erosion of Power:
  • Miller (8:54): “There’s a sense that Donald Trump is losing power… the fear of Trump is starting to turn into loathing.”
• MTG’s Exit Meaning:
  • Kristol (6:22): “Splits within MAGA can do a lot of damage even if it’s just a few percent.”
• On Corruption:
  • Kristol (25:51): “It’s a giant corruption scheme up there… I feel like people are getting a sense of that.”
• On Democrats and Populism:
  • Miller (36:45): “He’s not a populist. The only way out is to actually strip him of that. That’s where we need the lefties to help—attack him as a phony, not hand it to him.”
• Elite Capitulation:
  • Kristol (28:32): “Lunatics like Tim Burchett and Marjorie Taylor Greene are going to show more courage than major American corporations. It’s a little unfortunate.”
• On Administration Infighting:
  • Kristol (17:31): “Vance and Rubio not even speaking… endless maneuvering… my experience is, when you get into this, things go awry.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Resignation & Analysis: 04:09–07:32
• Congressional Grumbling & Erosion of Trump’s Fear Factor: 07:32–10:56
• Authoritarianism and Populist Myth Busted: 10:56–12:38, 36:45
• DOGE’s Collapse & Critique: 23:25–25:51
• Corporate Elite and Saudi State Dinner: 27:24–29:57
• Admin Infighting & Vance–Tucker–Rubio Dynamics: 17:26–20:29
• Populist Optics: Trump Meets Zoran: 32:12–36:45
• Ukraine, Russia, Venezuela Foreign Policy Segment: 41:27–47:56
• Podcast Primary Jokes, NY-12 Race: 49:47–52:53

Tone & Style

• Engaged, irreverent yet deeply informed.
• Candid, reality-based (harsh truths about Trump, MAGA, elites, and “Never Trump” experiences).
• Blunt about political failures and corruption, but maintains a humorously exasperated tone throughout.
• Mixes in anecdotal, insider political gossip for flavor.

Summary Takeaway

This episode argues that the cracks in Trump’s power are widening, with discontent surfacing among MAGA stalwarts and mainstream Republicans alike, eroding both his fear factor and his populist credibility. The hosts caution that while Trump isn’t finished, these fissures—contrasted against elite, corporate capitulation—signal a turbulent new phase in American politics. Meanwhile, foreign policy confusion and domestic infighting only add to Trumpism’s vulnerabilities heading into the next year, while the battle for the soul of populism—and democracy—continues.