Bill Kristol (4:59)

Yeah, that's the good news. I think that the business community, which has been so pathetic, honestly in its response to Trump, maybe that finally decide this is really a problem, though I don't know. They have such ability to rationalize that. A couple of calls from your friend Scott Besant and a couple of reassurances that don't worry Kevin Warsh will be a responsible Fed chair. I don't have a lot of community, a lot of confidence necessarily that the business community will really go into the kind of resistance mode they should. But he's a prominent guy they're going after on a kind of ridiculous thing, this rehabbing or rebuilding of the Fed headquarters. I'm not even sure exactly what they're building and so forth, cost overruns, that kind of thing. That's a criminal offense. I mean, so it is part of the broader intimidation effort, obviously. But you're right, it also raises the specter, which is we've seen coming for quite a while, which is Trump does not want an independent Fed. And just to complete that thought, the reason he doesn't want an independent Fed is not because he has deep. I mean, it's probably because he likes low interest rates and that's just his prejudice. But it's not because he has deep thoughts about monetary policy. It's because he wants a Fed that will do what he wants and he and goose the economy in 2028. Way to help Republicans hold the White House.

Tim Miller (6:07)

Yeah, look, there's no doubt about that. It's about power manipulation. If the independence of the Fed is threatened or altogether eliminated, I mean, the economic consequences are extremely severe. And you go through the countries that have had this issue, it's like Argentina, Venezuela, Trump's trying to Venezuela the whole country. We're going to get into that a little bit. I mean, it's very serious. As you mentioned, there have been some business guys finally showing some backbone of this. Also, just a little bit on the Hill, we should mention Thom Tillis spoke out about this quite quickly last night and he wrote this in a statement. If there are any remaining doubt whether advisors within the Trump administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Fed, there should now be none. It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question. I don't know if they're in if it's in question at this point, but we'll give them something. It's better than nothing. Tillis goes on. I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed, including the upcoming Fed chair vacancy, until this Legal matter is fully resolved now Tillis by himself does not really have the power to hold up a Fed chair vacancy. But yet. And a couple of others. Murkowski who knows potentially others and. And they really could have a standoff with them on this.

Bill Kristol (7:27)

No, it's striking that Tillis did this. Now Tillis is retiring and it will be very interesting today to see if other people weigh in. This is. I mean you think of all the issues. I personally am even more outraged about ICE than the Fed though both are outrageous and dangerous. But this is the issue that Republicans presumably are most susceptible to breaking with Trump on as tariffs was and on tariffs Trump did back down. So let's see if there's support for Tillis. It was striking though I've got to say. I just can't resist even tell us who's doing the right thing here. And I hope he succeeds. I hope everyone wins to support him. All the Republicans on the Hill. He can't quite say Trump. Right. The advisors. How does it the advisors to Trump are prevailing in attacking Fed independence. It's like God forbid you actually say that Donald Trump himself is doing something terrible.

Tim Miller (8:14)

And also that the independence of the Department of Justice is in question. It's like I don't think it is actually. I think it's pretty clear that the end that there is no independence of the department. I don't even think that Trump is pretending like there's an independence of the Department of Justice right now. So I don't know what the question is. You know, I think all sides pretty much agree that the Department of Justice is now, you know, completely just in service to Donald Trump's wishes just for one second we should do it because why not we do the crystal fantasy politics just because as we get more and more into a crisis scenario where we are now people do have agency on the Hill. And you wrote this on X. Tillis, McConnell, Murkowski, Collins could announce caucus for now with the Dems to give them control of the Senate to check Trump. Like that could happen. They could just do that. It's not crazy. It has happened before in state legislatures. Texas, some others and Alaska I think into some Alaska politics later. And Collins probably would not be part of that being up for reelection this year. But others potentially that are retiring like it's not. It's not that fantastical a new year. Colder days. This is the moment your winter wardrobe really has got to deliver. If you're craving a winter reset, start with pieces truly made to last season after season. Quince brings together premium materials, thoughtful design and enduring quality so you stay warm, look sharp and feel your best all season long. Quince is everything you need. Men's Mongolian cashmere sweaters, wool coats, leather and suede outerwear that actually hold up to daily wear and tear. Each piece is made from premium materials by trusted factories that meet rigorous standards for craftsmanship and ethical production. That result is classic styles that hold up year after year. I'm a Quince fan, you know that I just put it in a new order for some kids Quint stuff. There are kids Quint stuff out there. Got to lose some Terry joggers, you know, some leggings. Some joggers keep her warm in the frigid 58 degree winter here in New Orleans. Also got a note from a reader said our sponsor Ron's got the Quint sweater and it's so damn warm he looks handsome in it. So there you go. It's good enough for reader Joe for Toulouse. It's got to be good enough for you. Refresh your winter wardrobe with quince. Go to quince.com the bulwark for free shipping on your order at 365 day return is now available in Canada as well. What's up Canada? That's Q U I-N C E.com the bulwark free shipping and 365 day returns quints.com thebuller I mean the Dems.

Bill Kristol (10:48)

If you've really wanted to get serious about the fact that it is a genuine crisis, the Dems could also offer to withdraw opposition to Collins to reelection if she joins them. So there are many. The Dems have some cards to play here too, if they're serious about the moment. The ball's in the Republicans court mostly, since you say they have agencies. Same in the House, incidentally. It would take what, two Republicans now I think given how narrow the margin is, to say they're gonna temporarily vote for Jeffries for Speaker. And again, they could cut deals. They could get some committee chairman. All ones I mentioned could get committee chairmanships.

Tim Miller (11:16)

One of them could become speaker or majority leader, conceivably. And if you get really in this.

Bill Kristol (11:20)

Kind of emergency, I think it is worth at least trying to get people to think a little more broadly. And it has been so infuriating for the last year to have all these. Everyone's well, I guess it's 5347. There's just nothing that can be done. As if people can't act to change the status quo. And there's enough unhappiness I should think about tariffs, war powers, the Fed, now some about ice, I would think, I hope maybe this is a moment where it all comes together. Maybe it is kind of fantasy. But, but I put it, I put it in warning shots to, to, to try to give people something to think about, you know.

Tim Miller (11:52)

No, it's fantasy. I don't want people to think that we think it might happen, but it could happen. So it should be stated right, like this is like the pre surrender, like why is it impossible? And there are two retiring senators who know who, who have stated objections to Trump on various things. There's a libertarian senator who has stated objections. There's Murkowski who's run as an independent before. It shouldn't be outside the realm of possibility, even though it probably is. I want to talk about Renee Good and her murder last week since we've not spoken about it since we got together. You talked about it with Sam on your Sunday Live conversation. But your column this morning in Morning Shots is about being opposed to ICE as being galvanizing of the resistance. So obviously some references to the French resistance, since it is Bill Kristol. So I just wanted to kind of just let you cook on both what we've seen from ICE Minnesota, the situation with Renee Goode and kind of how you think it's appropriate to react to it.

Bill Kristol (12:55)

I mean, well, the killing of Renee Good and everything else we've seen and then the administration's lying about it. God, to say the least. Lying immediately about it and continuing to lie about it and lying in the face of all the evidence about it is makes it all the more horrible and also all the more laying the groundwork for this continuing. And it's not just laying the groundwork for this continuing. They've doubled down. They're sending more people into Minneapolis. They seem to have intensified their brute force, intimidation tactics and other lesser forms of violence so far. Someone asked me earlier this morning on a different call about Kent State and how it compared. And I got back and looked at that a bit over the weekend, but I mean, that was terrible, but actually less purposeful than the ICE violence. It was young kids in the National Guard and I think afterwards and Nixon did defend it for a while and there was a lot of stupid stuff said. But at the end of the day, they kind of withdrew. I don't believe the Guard got deployed much after that. And I, they set up a commission to look into all this. You know, there's none of that with Trump. I won't say they wanted this to happen, but they are purposely trying to exploit it to further intimidate people not to correct the obvious things that have been shown to be wrong about the way ISIS behaving.

Tim Miller (14:05)

They're purposely trying to escalate, too. So when you get into. I got a bunch of stuff to get into, I want to just talk about Trump's response last night really quick before I rant. And as is our policy, I won't play it. So I'm going to read it for you. So Trump's on the plane. This is a gaggle on Air Force One. He's asked by a reporter, do you believe that deadly force was necessary in the case of Renee Goode? Trump replies, it was highly disrespectful of law enforcement. The woman and her friend were highly disrespectful of law enforcement. Then he goes on to talk about how they had been following them around. Law enforcement should not be in a position where they have to put up with this stuff. Law enforcement should not be in a position where they have to put up with this stuff. A truly appalling statement by the President of the United States. When asked about whether it was necessary to kill the. The protester, he says, essentially, yes, because law enforcement shouldn't have to be hassled.

Bill Kristol (15:05)

Unbelievable, really. And it's not only. That comes on top of J.D. vance saying, Thursday, ICE agents will have absolute immunity, I guess, from state prosecution, which isn't correct, I gather, from my lawyer friends. But they have quite a lot of immunity, probably more than they should have with qualified immunity, the way that doctrine is developed. But it, but what does that, what does that say? That says Vance went to Yale Law School, knows a little bit about this. What that says going forward is, you guys are fine, you guys are free.

Tim Miller (15:28)

Go for it.

Bill Kristol (15:29)

You. You follow the example of what happened there in Minneapolis, leaving even aside the pardon power, which obviously could kick in and take care of these guys. So the degree of the. Just, you know, we've seen where this is going and they embrace where this is going. That's why it is accelerationism, don't you think?

Tim Miller (15:43)

Yeah. Yes. You know, you just look at the videos from this weekend and it's. There's just so much happening, I couldn't really pull it together in time for this podcast. I'll probably do a separate video on this for folks to watch, check out later. But, like, just the way that ICE is acting in Minnesota is, since this killing is a category difference from how they've been acting, you see certain skirmishes and misbehavior from ICE since this started. Right. Like, there are a bunch of examples, but just like the intensity of it, you know, you see the ICE agent saying the woman in the car, you saw what happened to that other woman that did this. You know, you see that. You see them storming into a house of, you know, there's a doordash driver who goes to deliver food and he goes into a house. And the woman whose house is at. Is protecting, you know, is protecting the driver. And it's like these guys are like storming Fallujah. You know, the amount of, you know, weaponry and masks, like going into some, like, modest, some person citizen's house in the country and just, you know, you could go on and on. There's more. They want that. Like, they want to escalate it. I saw there was a smart post I saw from David Austin Walsh, a professor. He said he can't overemphasize how much we're seeing. What we're seeing is this libidinal desire on the right to reenact the George Floyd uprisings. And I do think that's right. I think that there's a lot of, like, regret on the right that there wasn't more shooting from the. From the cops during the George Floyd riots. And they. They want. They. There is like a fantasizing about that, and they want that. And they want it so that they can take more power. They can want it. They want it for the purpose of accelerationism on their authoritarian mission. And. And they want it because they hate the delivery. I mean, you just hear it in their voice. They hate the woman like they hate the, you know, so lesbian protesting woman who, you know, whose attitude they don't like. I don't think it's too far to say that like, that There is like a psychological. There's both the authoritarian desire, but also the psychological element that they want to accelerate this and they want to have more skirmishes and violence.

Bill Kristol (17:52)

And Christine Ohm, I think on TV yesterday, wouldn't even deplore the fact that and Ice Age. And I think maybe it was the one who shot Renee Goode. Maybe it was one of the others, right. In that little cluster, called her, said.

Tim Miller (18:03)

A terrible thing, called her a fucking bitch.

Bill Kristol (18:06)

I'll say it, you know, you should say it.

Tim Miller (18:07)

Called her a fucking bitch after they shot her in the face three times. Yeah.

Bill Kristol (18:10)

And Kristina didn't say. Well, that's very tense moments. And people should, of course, shouldn't say things like that. She couldn't even say that. But she doesn't want to say that because I guess they don't believe that. Right. They believe that that's what people are getting, what they deserve, as you sort of, as Trump kind of said. Right.

Tim Miller (18:23)

Yeah, yeah. Law enforcement shouldn't have to put up with these uppity women. Yeah. Like, honestly, like, that's. That's really what it is. Tapper, in that same interview, Tapper was really good with Noam and also, like, gives her the obvious question to this, which is, okay, well, if the response to being highly disrespectful to law enforcement is that people get killed, like, what about January 6th? Like, those people are very disrespectful to law enforcement, and you pardon them. They don't even have an answer to that. Right. Like, some of the MAGA media types, when you see engaging on that point on social media, like, they will, like, the. What are you even talking about? Like, they let them in through the gates and they didn't do it. You know, like, there's a lot of that, like, just fantasy, like Earth 2. Like, there wasn't even violence against cops. Like, the administration is not that quite that shameless. I guess I shouldn't overstate it. Maybe somebody administration is that shameless. But, you know, so they won't do that. So they just sort of, like, just dance around all that that, like, they don't have an answer to. Like, because the true answer is that they think that the state and police and ICE agents can do violence against their political foes, but not against their allies, which is really the truth.

Bill Kristol (19:27)

And they think their allies can do violence against the Capitol Police, where the Capitol Police are defending the elections and their allies are storming the Capitol. Right. I mean, it's really. It is kind of remarkable.

Tim Miller (19:40)

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Bill Kristol (24:22)

He wasn't in danger objectively. And that is one of the legal standards I believe that you know, people have to use before they kill, before they discharge. They have to be in, it has to really be in self defense. Not just in some fantasy self defense or defense of others when they were not threatening. He didn't even. But he didn't believe he was in danger. You know, by moving the cell phone to the other, continuing to video. That's why we have this, that's why this is such a telling cell phone video. Because he kept it on. He wouldn't, he wasn't. We know how people behave and their danger and what they. And B, none of his colleagues thought he or they were in danger. They're strolling around and then they stroll away I mean, the whole thing. Then of course, they don't let the physician approach as well. I mean, it is grotesque.

Tim Miller (25:03)

What a great point. None of them pull a weapon. I said this to other people. I haven't argued about this. If it was so obviously a dangerous situation, why didn't any of the other ICE agents pull their weapon in order to protect their colleague? The only possible way that you could justify that he actually thought he was scared is because he was too focused on trying to get his videotape of them. And so he got distracted. But even then it's like, okay, well then why do you shoot our execution style through the side window after the car is already pulling away? So there's just no possible rationale for this that makes any sense. The administration thinks that they're on the right foot here. They want to be fighting over this. They do. And I'm not sure that's right. Sometimes people think that they're on the right foot politically, and they're wrong. And I think that it's important to. To continue to push on this because I do think there are big parts of their coalition that are actually not okay with execution style murders of women and Honda pilots with a dog in the backseat and their kids toys in the passenger seat. And so I want to play this next clip. It's a little tongue in cheek. Obviously, this is a tragic scenario and it's just horrible. What happened to her any good? And I fucking like. It's just my heart breaks for her and her family, the kid especially. But I do wonder if this kind of thing resonates with people in a different way. This is like a right wing comedian who is pushing back on the narrative, the maga, the Trump administration narrative on this.

Rocket Money Advertiser (26:31)

I don't believe the cop was justified in shooting her three times in the face, by the way. I've always believed this, and this is something that I've caught heat for, but I've literally believe it since I'm a kid. I don't believe you should ever shoot someone in the face more than once. I've. No, seriously. I think. I just think it's ridiculous so that they did that and they, you know, the guy.

Tim Miller (27:00)

These are.

Rocket Money Advertiser (27:01)

These are not well trained law enforcement people. In ICE right now, we are taking people that did backyard wrestling.

Tim Miller (27:13)

I mean, okay, so we're being silly. He's being silly, obviously. But I think that could resonate with people just like people who are not ideologically disposed to this. Right. Who are just like, watching this video, who are not Fox News Zombies who are like, wait a minute, I don't want to live in a country where a bunch of ill trained thugs are running around with masks on, firing through the side window of a ladies Honda Pilot. Like, that is not a society that I want to live in. It's not. Okay. I have a wife, I have a mother. I actually believe in the real definition of don't tread on me. And I don't know, I just think that that's an important argument to make and to not lose sight of.

Bill Kristol (27:56)

I totally agree. And I think it's an important argument for Democrats to sort of come to believe that at least it's a reasonable chance that this could become. Or is the majority view. I think it is actually. But. And there's some polling even to suggest this, but because they need to, in my view. I'm curious whether you agree, I mean, to act, to follow up really. And they are Congress, they do authorize and appropriate funds for ice and they should say if the funding, which is unfortunately already baked in, it's going to increase so much that they could change that too. Of course. But even if they leave the funding that's planned, that it can't go ahead unless ICE takes off the masks, unless they don't use guns or use them in very. There are all kinds of regulations for when to use guns, et cetera, et cetera. Right. I mean, you could get the. Require the approval of local authorities. Senator Murphy has, I think a.

Tim Miller (28:45)

Well, no, let's go into the Senator Murphy thing. Okay.

Bill Kristol (28:48)

I mean, people, again, sort of your point earlier. The agency is. People have agency and Congress has agency. And ICE is not an autonomous thing that just descends from the skies and shows up in cities. And part of that is therefore, Christine, Donald Trump's responsibility totally in my view, as well as the individual agents, obviously. And part of it is Congress, Congress's responsibility to not let this continue.

Tim Miller (29:11)

Yeah. We have another budget round coming up. This is what Chris Murphy said. It's like Democrats can't vote for any budget that funds this. He said specifically he wants to plan legislation that would require agents to have warrants for arrests. Oh, my God, that's. Well, how radical is that in a free country that people should have warrants if they're going to arrest someone? He wants to ban them from wearing masks. He wants to limit the use of guns by ICE and restrict the border patrol to the border. Yeah, I think those are all going to be very popular. I don't know about limit guns base. I don't exactly. I would Be interested to see what the polling is. The rest of that is very obvious and popular. I had somebody who's, who's very well read, watches the news in my life, just on one of my text change, I think it was over the weekend saying like, why is it, why is border patrol there in Minnesota? It's not the border, you know, because unless you're like really following this, you don't realize what they're doing. And it does just feel wrong to people. Are we redeploying people from the border to Minnesota and Chicago to go into the streets? I just think that there are compelling arguments that could be made. I think the Democrats get wrapped around the axle, sometimes around the slogan Abolish ICE wasn't popular. And you get into this left wing fight over should we do abolish ICE or should we not say abolish ice? And it's like, stop, like stop it, stop Pearl clutching over whatever your fucking slogan is and just being so obsessed with the specific word. It's like, no, just go out there, make the argument against what ICE is doing. And you can also simultaneously say that, yeah, I support doing what Trump said he was going to do. They can even say that, go after the violent criminals, deport them from the country. We're all for that. Think about all the money we could be using to go after actual criminals that we're wasting, you know, chasing people down the street, chasing doordash drivers. This is crazy what they're doing. So I don't know. I was encouraged by what Murphy said. I think that the Democrats can really, should really do that. Mark Kirtling's in the newsletter with you this morning, arguing he needed to take the masks off. Talks very compellingly about his experience in Iraq. I'd encourage people to read that. And I think that those are all areas where the Democrats can be an offensive.

Bill Kristol (31:28)

And on the funding, I mean, just to be clear, I said this, I was having similar conversation over the weekend. So I said, well, but isn't that funding all baked in? It is for now. Congress does not have to accept prior Congress's decision about funding and they can change it. And if they want to make it conditional on these reforms, if they want to reduce the growth of ice. Ice has gone from 10,000 to 22,000, I believe, officers in the last year. God knows what the quality of those 12 new, 12,000 is. I'm not sure that the shooter was one of the new ones, incidentally. He may have been someone who had other problems. But anyway, it can't Be good. And it just increases the chances of all this happening. And they can put a pause on the expansion of ice. They can put a pause on the expansion of funding. They don't have to totally defund it. I myself, not being a member of Congress, feel I can maybe slightly irresponsibly say abolish ICE just to get people to think about it and reorganize DHS and so forth. But yes, there are many things they can push for. And if they have to compromise to get some Republican votes and, you know, a little more funding, go ahead than they want. But in return, get some of these restrictions, you can't just sit there and say, well, we have to keep the government open and it's a big appropriations bill and it's got a lot of some other stuff in it that we like, and we're just going to go ahead and fund this agency that's doing these kinds of things. I don't think that's. I don't think personally it's acceptable. I wouldn't vote for such a thing. And I really think they could get a lot of support by insisting that this not go ahead the way it is.

Tim Miller (32:47)

I started in what, 2003? Something like that. It's like the country existed. We were able to successfully handle immigration before having this organization. So defunding is not insane. I just pulled up here. This is Civics. If you look at their polling, they're tracking on the question of abolishing ICE, I'd had very low support. I will say in 2024. Right now it's at 50 opposed, 42 support. So 42 support for botching ICE. You've seen that number move. Some Democrats have the jitters because of Defund the Police, which is an extremely stupid slogan. And even the people that, that argued to defund the police didn't offer what their alternative was going to be. It was going to be like community engagement and hugs and stuff. And it's just like, this is crazy. This is not realistic. That's not what we're talking about. This is different than that. You can go out there and say, this agency has been corrupted. We can do immigration enforcement. We have ton of other federal law enforcement. I'm not talking about defunding federal law enforcement. I want to fund good law enforcement. I want to fund the local police in Minneapolis who are actually doing good work right now. As we talked with Mayor Fry about, this fucking organization is like Donald Trump's paramilitary and it's going after US Citizens and going after people that are here illegally and we should defund it and replace it with something else. I don't think that everybody needs to get all panicked about that. That's defund the Police 2.0. As long as they're making clear arguments.

Bill Kristol (34:22)

Totally. And I would just add that, I mean, in a way, Chris Murphy maybe has done this, even could resent his proposals as we are trying to hold ICE to the standards we routinely hold all police forces to.

Rocket Money Advertiser (34:33)

Right.

Bill Kristol (34:33)

I mean, the things he's proposing are things that are, in fact, the procedures of police. That's what's so appalling about this. I mean, that. And again, the Kristi Noem reaction. No sense of, okay, we've, you know, we're going to take a look. We're not going to comment until the investigation's underway. It'll be independent. We'll provide counseling to this person who killed someone like any police force does. If a police officer unfortunately gets in this kind of situation, they don't even have a scintilla of that kind of attitude. And so I think they can be pro FBI, I mean, if they want. And pro, as you say, local police to. And reason and say, this is just totally different. This is a paramilitary force deployed in our cities before was a little speculative about how bad it could be. We've seen how bad it could be. So we have to act then.

Tim Miller (35:16)

Your point, I just think, just worth emphasizing one more time, is like, they're not even trying to argue that this should be reformed. And again, I look at this video and I see somebody that was just either an unbelievable coward who was scared and was shitting his pants and decided to kill a woman who had just told him she wasn't mad at him 20 seconds earlier or somebody who intentionally was. Was out for revenge. Those are the two options. If you. If even if you're on the other side of that and taking the view that, like, no, this guy really got scared in the moment. And like, he's somebody who just can't really even make it through a grocery store parking lot without. Without grabbing for his weapon because he's like, so afraid of moving vehicles. Like, if you're on that point of view, then even then the thing to say is, like, this is a tragedy. We need to talk about our procedures. Like, we're going to talk with our agents. You know, we're going to make sure people don't. We're going to make sure we're to focus on de Escal. You know, you don't hear them saying that you don't hear them saying, we're going to try to focus on we want to de escalate. We're not at war with U.S. citizens. We're not at war with people that are peacefully protesting. You know, like we're going after people that are here illegally. Like you can imagine how they could define what they're doing in a different way. They're not doing that. They're escalating. They're escalating and basically saying he did nothing wrong. Shooting execution style the 37 year old lady through the side window for I.

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Tim Miller (37:35)

I'm talking about Venezuela Trump at this roundtable with oil executives last week to I guess gain some excitement for our imperialist effort to steal the oil from Venezuela. One CEO at Exxon dissented. Let's listen.

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Bill Kristol (38:15)

If we look at the legal and.

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Tim Miller (38:23)

Okay, so pretty clearly clear there from that guy is just like, like why would I go into Venezuela? Basically like what changes? Like they've seized my oil twice down there already since we went in there for the first time in the 1940s. And now you're just like, trust me, we should go, we should go into Venezuela. That doesn't make a lot of sense for me. Trump lashed out at him on that same plane gaggle and said he's inclined to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela after the CEO's skeptical response. So I just. Is that the president's job? Like, does the president of the United States get to decide what companies invest in other countries? I get, apparently that's, that's, this is the new free market conservatism. The Donald Trump just you. If you're a gas, oil and gas CEO, you got to suck up to Trump.

Bill Kristol (39:11)

Yeah. The president does get to decide in this and in other areas. It turns out all such things. And the whole that was executive order he issued, I think quietly on Friday also that I couldn't quite understand it at first. I think I got this right. It doesn't allow the oil companies to go to court, basically, I think, and try to recoup the funds that were taken from them somewhat illegitimately, maybe they say, at least by the previous Venezuelan government in 2000, you know, under Chavez or whatever. But Trump doesn't want that. That's actually very revealing. Right. Because he said he wanted to get back all the money that was stolen. He doesn't want that.

Tim Miller (39:42)

He wants.

Bill Kristol (39:42)

But that would just let Exxon and everyone else, whoever's involved, go to court and get whatever they can get. No, he wants to control that money and he wants to give it to the people he favors. And the whole thing's a fantasy. And of course the oil thing, how oil they're going to get, how easy it's going to be to get, how much difference it'll make on the oil market, which is in any case, we're not short of oil right now. Prices have come down, are not high. But anyway, leaving aside the whole Trump fantasy about oil stuff, it is revealing that, yes, he wants to control it. This is about him being more authoritarianism in this case abroad, but also back at home because it does end up he controls what the oil companies do.

Tim Miller (40:20)

Here and he wants to control them more. The Energy Secretary, Chris wright, said the U.S. is thinking about taking ownership stakes in oil companies like they did in Intel. This is like beyond Bernie Sanders level fantasies. The whole thing is about controlling and manipulating these CEOs. And I know that I'm a broken record on this and that good on the Exxon guy for speaking out and for a couple that we've seen on the Fed thing, but I just don't understand why these guys are going along with this. The hair would be so on fire, right? If Kamala Harris was president and had the oil and gas CEOs in and was like, no, you have to. You got to say these magic woke words for me to allow you to drill. And if you don't do it, I'm going to ban you from drilling and insult you publicly. Joe Kernan would have had a heart attack on Squawk Box by now. Like, he'd be so red in the face, screaming about the socialism.

Bill Kristol (41:14)

And they have been screaming about the social. Godani sets up five tiny little grocery stores in New York or gets a little tougher on some of the. The real estate guys. If California passes, probably, or tries to enforce, probably an ill advise, whatever tax on the wealth of billionaires probably would just be counterproductive. They'll leave. But whatever, that's the end of. That's it. That's the end of capitalism. This is so beyond the pale, we can't even have a discussion about it or pretend that it's anything but an assault on everything we hold dear in this capitalist country of ours. But Trump has gone so far beyond Mahandani, even what Mahandani wants, even if he weren't constrained by all these other characters, Trump's not constrained. But even if so far behind Mohammedani, so far beyond Gavin Newsom.

Tim Miller (41:57)

That's all.

Bill Kristol (41:58)

Is anyone complaining? I don't know. I'm not. I mean, they did finally get alarmed about Powell, as we were saying, but I haven't. I don't know. Are they all screaming about this? Maybe I missed that. I give the Exxon guy. I give the Exxon guy credit for just saying it, I guess maybe Exxon's so big he could just. He doesn't care. Or he just. He couldn't. He just felt he had to be honest.

Tim Miller (42:15)

I don't know.

Bill Kristol (42:16)

It was unusual, actually.

Tim Miller (42:16)

He's just being blunt. What happened to that? Those are the kind of old guys I liked. There was like kind of a type of old guy that was just very, you know, I, I've seen a lot of things.

Bill Kristol (42:26)

Right.

Tim Miller (42:27)

You know, and I'm just like, I'm just going to be blunt about what I think about this and, and, and not. And not engage in your pipe dreams. More of that would be welcome among the CEO class. You know, you say the Ex sounds so big. It's just like, whatever. Apple's so big.

Bill Kristol (42:41)

Yeah, fair enough.

Tim Miller (42:42)

Amazon so big. What is Jeff Bez. I, you know, are they scared about that? He's Worried he's not going to get his little, I guess, penis rocket to get into space approved. And that's what matters to him now. I don't know. Trump post a meme of himself as act Venezuela also. I just want to say that post a meme is a picture of him. Wikipedia. Acting President of Venezuela. That seems like a mistake to me. I agree, actually, it seems like a legitimate mistake. And I, and I want to get into why here as we look into 2028 in America first stuff. But this Venezuela thing could end up as a disaster. And who knows? Like right now they've made the decision to do everything they can to guard against there being instability. You know, it's like we'll leave the vice president in there, we'll leave the kill squads in there. You know, we'll do, we'll, you know, buy people off. But yeah, you don't, you know, you don't control everything. It's a big country. Venezuela is, you know, and there's other groups and interests and I don't know, I just think that that little, that little picture of Trump is acting president of Venezuela. If this turns into a total shit show, might be something that could stick with people.

Bill Kristol (43:55)

Yeah, no, I think said the mission accomplished sort of thing. Right. And I don't know, did they elect him to be acting president of Venezuela? There's a little bit of still, I think, fragmenting of the MAGA base to be done here if people aggressively push on this, don't you think?

Tim Miller (44:08)

Yeah, that takes us to 2028 and other stuff. My notes say America first 2028 here. Steve Bannon, my frenemy. I don't know if that's right, but me and Bannon have gone around the bend quite a few times together. And he leaked to Axios, not to the Bulwark, looking at a 2028 run. He said that he's not. Doesn't actually think that he could win, but it's about advancing the agenda potentially. I guess I'd just throw out there that Donald Trump didn't think he could win when he got in either. So I don't think that Ben doesn't have that in the back of his mind. I think that he's just trying to say what feels like he needs to say at the moment. But it's notable that you have Bannon out there. Compelling speaker, you know, would actually have an argument for being genuine in America first. And if you imagine a potential 2028 primary where JD Vance is trying to kind of straddle you Know, the old, more traditional Republicanism with the America First Tucker crowd. And you've got Bannon there basically, you know, kind of as the jockey on the horse, kind of whipping him anytime that he, you know, sort of gets off track. I could have real impacts on. On that, on how a race turns out. And I just, I also think that, like, if it's banned or somebody else like Trump is leaving an opening for this right now, just across the board, especially if the economy doesn't get better, get worse. It is not hard to come up with an America first argument against the Trump ban administration from the right or from the populist right or whatever that just basically says these guys ended up caring more about Kennedy center and East Wing and Venezuela and the Peace Prize, and you guys got left behind and we're not. We'll keep up the immigration fascism. And then besides that, focus on you.

Bill Kristol (46:08)

And Ben can say, truthfully, he was for Trump from the beginning, which J.D. vance certainly wasn't. DeMarco Rubio certainly wasn't. He was willing to. He went to the White House, he was willing to criticize others and he warned about what was going to happen in the first term, which from their point of view is correct. He warned that McMaster and all these characters like and Bolton and Gary Cohn and all these people were not really on board what Trump wanted to do. And that's why he will say he got shoved out and he warned about that for the next three years, then out of power. He was for Trump, I think, pretty much all the way, wasn't he?

Tim Miller (46:40)

For sure. Then he went to jail for Trump.

Bill Kristol (46:42)

Right.

Tim Miller (46:42)

Unlike he went to jail for Trump. Unlike the others. What did J.D. vance give up?

Bill Kristol (46:45)

Yeah. Who toured with DeSantis or maybe Vance it. But anyway, who had their own whatever agendas. And then coming back in, he wanted to help Trump and he helped him on some stuff. But unfortunately, Trump got captured again by some bad people. I think it's in a way, I mean, not to overthink this, and I don't know that you were. Our endorsement of Bannon would help him really in the Republican primary. But I mean, he has a pretty good way of being both the Trumpy candidate and the candidate who warned against the betrayal of Trump at the same time. Do you know what I mean? And it's only. I was thinking about this. Would Trump personally, who would he prefer? Let's assume he's not running, which he may well be, but let's assume there's no Don Jr. He's gotta be Worried about what he would want, someone in there who would not want to cause any trouble for him. And I think in a way, he probably would judge that Bannon would be more loyal than Vance or Rubio. I think that could well be true, incidentally.

Tim Miller (47:39)

Yeah, maybe. I mean, again, Bannon went to jail for him, Bannon went to jail for him.

Bill Kristol (47:45)

So that probably tells Trump he could live with Bannon in there.

Tim Miller (47:49)

So that testify.

Bill Kristol (47:50)

So Bannon, Bannon, we've worked that out. Bannon 20, 28. Ye. Yeah, I don't know.

Tim Miller (47:55)

Not for it. Not for it. I just think that objectively, analytically, I agree. Like, there is space. Trump has created the space for someone to run, whether that's Bannon or someone else is an authentic America first person. And if JD Vance decides to go down with the Trump ship and apologize for everything he's doing and pretend like there's an America first rationale for Venezuela and for all this other nonsense that Trump is doing with the fact that he was an ever Trumper. And I was going back looking at some of JD's old blog posts over the weekend, there's one where he's talking about, how can conservatives who distrust the government on the government's able to efficiently run all these other things, like the post office, et cetera. How can we then turn around and say that the government can efficiently run a deportation campaign of 12 million people? That was J.D. vance, and 10 years ago, I just. He's phony. He's phony. And no matter how much he sucks up to Trump now, the vulnerability of being phony will always be there. I don't know. I think it's interesting, Tucker, speaking of the America first wing. Tucker was at the White House, had lunch with Trump. Trump gave him as a gift a pair of brown wingtips, not a brown shirt. I was thinking a brown shirt would have been more appropriate, but he gave him a tip of a pair of brown wingtips. I don't know what to make of that exactly. But there was this whole controversy on the right where people were trying to define MAGA in their own ways. And these more establishment types were like, the Heritage foundation is being too nice to Tucker, and TPUSA is being too nice to Tucker, and that's wrong and real. If you look at Trump, he's not actually listening to Tucker. And there he is, Trump Tucker having lunch with Trump after advancing a bunch of Nazi shit and conspiracies, et cetera, et cetera.

Bill Kristol (49:49)

Half the Heritage Board and half the Heritage staff. I think quit because of the fact that their president at Heritage wouldn't repudiate Tucker enough. And now Trump, the president is having cheerful lunch with the guy after he's indulged with all these anti Semites and all this other horrible stuff. Does tell you a lot. Tells you a lot where the MAGA coalition is and how again, the radicalization of everything. So now you can't quite probably have what's that guy's name? Fuentes to lunch at the White House, but you can be Fuentes adjacent and be Trump and maga, and that's MAGA today. So the accelerationism is both in the policy side and in the kind of coalitional side. Right. I mean, of maga, I think.

Tim Miller (50:30)

Yeah. I mean, Tucker gave Nick Fuentes called a softball interview. It'd be an understatement. It was more of like a blowjob of an interview that Tucker gave Nick Fuentes and then complimented him after. And he could say they disagree on things. Just like that would be. Tucker's defensive at, like, he gives him this massive platform and puffs him up and glazes them, and then he's at the White House a couple weeks later having lunch. Speaking of other vulnerabilities on the America first side, I've been thinking this for a while and, and it's. It's touchy about how to handle it. But I do think that the Democrats potentially have an angle here too. And I've been interested in particular in seeing the launch ad from Mary Pelton Tola. She's a Alaska congresswoman, tragically lost her husband in a plane crash recently, was Democrat who was heavily being recruited to run for Senate, decided to get in the race today. In my opinion, I think it's the most important recruitment that the Democrats have had because it legitimately adds another state to the potential myth. It's a stretch. It's Alaska. There's no doubt it's a stretch. But she assiduously maintained like an independent brand in Alaska. And she has kind of a funny slogan. It's like fish, family, freedom. Like, she's, she's like really focuses on parochial Alaska issues and being independent. And she, she did a whole launch video, which we'll put in the notes, show notes for people that you can watch like three minutes. But I started to play the last 10 seconds of it. It because it's interesting, the argument she's trying to make. Let's listen to it.

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Tim Miller (52:14)

Politics, put Alaska first. It's about time Alaskans teach the rest of the country what Alaska first and.

Mary Peltola (Ad Voice) (52:21)

Really America first looks like.

Tim Miller (52:23)

You know, the whole ad is about Alaska first and about focusing on Alaska and these lower 48 assholes don't know anything and and the cost of living is higher here than anywhere. People don't even believe us when we tell them how high the cost of living here is. And then the ad ends with we should be Alaska first and also America first. A real kind of America first. And I know both you and I blanch at that because it has a lot of baggage the phrase but it also resonates with people who don't understand that historical baggage. And so I don't begrudge her trying to co opt it. And I think that Trump is leaving himself very vulnerable here. And I'm going to be super interested to watch Mary Baltola. I've been this on this show, I've several times said I'm not super impressed with the Democrats recruiting in these red states right now. And I think that there's stuff that's in play and they have to jump on it right now. And this is the first one I'm not predicting she's going to win but I think that I'm interested in the campaign and how she's positioning herself.

Bill Kristol (53:28)

Very much agree. And I guess she won the congressional seat in 2022, is that right? I got the chronology I think right which the last off year election and that's a statewide race in Alaska. So you know, she won the same electorate the presumably will vote in 2026. She beat a Republican and Dan Sullivan's an incumbent maybe a little tougher but.

Tim Miller (53:50)

Dan Sullivan is still in the Senate, is that right?

Bill Kristol (53:52)

Yeah. You've noticed how courageous Sullivan that she's running against. I think so, yeah. And you notice he's been a real profile in courage. I mean he's surprised. I've seen a statement this morning supporting Tom T. Us on the Fed. I've seen him condemn the brutality of the ICE agents. He's I mean I know knew Dan Sullivan back in the day when he first got elected. I think that would be right. He elected 14 and then reelected in 20. So it'll be 26. And I know Dan Sullivan a bit and I think he's a nice man and impressive service and the military but he's been a profile in non courage.

Tim Miller (54:23)

And disappearance in absence.

Bill Kristol (54:25)

Yeah.

Tim Miller (54:25)

Honestly it's just like if you would have said to me I knew this now I've done this this year because I've been locked in on looking at potential stretch seats for the Democrats 2026 map. But if in September of 2024 you'd said to me, you know, is Dan SULLIVAN still the U.S. senator from Alaska? I think I would have been like, I think so. I just, I'm not sure. And he's been that he's been a ghost. And so I don't know. And I think that could potentially harm him. I don't think the MAGA people are like super excited about Dan Sullivan or feel like he's been a huge advocate for them. So I don't know. Alaska is so weird. And you know, I don't want to pretend like I'm an expert on the eccentricities of Alaska politics. But like you said, she won the statewide thing already and and will be interesting to monitor that race.

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Tim Miller (56:27)

I want to close with I wanted to get it. There's some crazy corruption stories. Do you want to talk about Ron louder or should we just. I'll do that later this week. I'll tease.

Bill Kristol (56:36)

Yeah, do that later, baby. Yeah.

Tim Miller (56:37)

The the cosmetics air. The 81 year old cosmetics heir, he's expanding. Okay. It's he's doing perfume. He's also doing rare earths now in Ukraine and Greenland. That's something we're going to talk about later this week. But I want to close with Iran. The protests bigger than we've seen in years in Iran over the weekend. Major crackdown by the regime. Thousands killed at this point of the protesters and Trump Trump kind of played a little footsie with the idea that we might get involved in the press conference yesterday. He did kind of one of those wait and see things that he does. What do you make of what we're seeing and what could be useful at this point?

Bill Kristol (57:25)

People who know a lot more about this than I do do think the regime is in real trouble. It'd be good to have some of the instruments of soft power and public diplomacy and, and ability to help them get their message. The Internet, they've shut down the Internet there. I think we could do a lot to help them with that. And I'm not sure we are. I think we're not. And I think in fact we've disabled parts of the US government that could be pretty good at that. Now maybe he and Musk could get together and really decide to help people who are genuinely fighting for freedom against a horrible regime there. So that would be nice, but we'll see if he does anything more than bluster.

Tim Miller (57:59)

Look, you know better than anybody, like, just like it's complex and our role is complex. Right? Because like simultaneously it's like the more the US is publicly seen as being on the side of the protesters, the worse it is for them. Right. Internally, not always, but, but just like it can backfire, I guess maybe would be a more accurate way to put it. But also too like unarmed protesters aren't going to overthrow the regime. Right. And if you like look at Syria, like what did it take to overthrow Assad? It was like basically Turkish backed militia group groups, you know, in short, that ended up getting rid of Assad. And so like if this is actually going to work in overthrowing the regime, you know, you need either internal defection from the military, you know, or the US or some other combination of outside, you know, maybe read Arab countries like providing weapons and resources to the folks that are, you know, on the ground. Like that's just right. I mean it's not. The thing doesn't just collapse just because a lot of people are in the streets. And like that's kind of a complicating factor here.

Bill Kristol (59:08)

And the Assad regime collapsed when Joe Biden was president. And I would, you know, point out to all my chest beating Trump, you know, defending friends. Oh he see he's really much doing much more to get rid of Maduro and Biden, I believe, I really don't. I think this is correct. Quietly was willing to let others help the people who did end up deposing Assad. Really the Turkish based forces there. And we're not in great terms with Turkey, and we got all kinds of issues with Iran. But you know what, that's part of what you do, is you do that stuff quietly and behind the scenes, and you ended up with a real victory for freedom there. We'll see how that works out in Turkish Syria. But so far better than it was, certainly. And I don't know, does the Trump administration even have the wit to do anything resembling that in terms of getting others to help behind the scenes to get real support to these people who deserve it? I wish they did, but there's no evidence of it.

Tim Miller (59:57)

It'd be nice something good happen in the world. We've had a lot of the forces of autocracy and authoritarianism have advanced quite a bit in the last decade. So it would be nice to have an advance for people that want freedom.

Bill Kristol (60:12)

Just to go all for 30 seconds of us of neocon kind of people want freedom. I mean, we allowed to say that anymore? I mean, it's sort of encouraging that they do, and it's an all honor to them and they're being unbelievably courageous. And there's something heartening about that. Right.

Tim Miller (60:31)

We are allowed to say it on the Bulwark podcast, at least. It is heartening, and I'm hoping for continued positive progress there. So we'll keep monitoring it, and if it reaches a boiling point, we'll bring on somebody with more expertise on what's happening in Iran. So any final thoughts from you, Bill? Do you want to give us a French. Do you have a French poem that you want to share?

Bill Kristol (60:58)

No, no, I just struck that. I don't know. I'll just take 30 seconds on this. I mean, it became sort of fashion. I noticed this on the last few. Couple of weeks. People were saying, well, I'm not a resist lib. But, you know. And they were about to make a perfectly sensible point that I agreed with. I thought, I don't know, why can't we just say we're all resist Lib now? You know, let's just get beyond that. Maybe we were right not to be, incidentally, six months ago, or certainly two or two or three years ago, there were more complicated aspects of building a broad opposition. But we should be resist libs. And that gets to what you said about Mary Patolta. I mean, if she's gonna have to say America first to win, go for it. People need to stop messing around. We need to. The Senate is really important, actually, in 26, more than just winning the House. And if it takes Mary Patolta saying one thing and someone else saying something else else. As long as they're going to stop what Trump is doing, I'm for it.

Tim Miller (61:47)

Amen. We're all resist libs now. Thanks so much to Bill, as always. Finally, I want to also fare thee well to the great Bob Weir, who died over the weekend. He meant a lot to so many of my friends and I know so many of you. I've heard from you with emails over the weekend. The Grateful Dead was essential to much of the music that changed my life. And, and I think there are others who are much better suited to offer credible tributes to Bobby. So I'll just leave y' all with a little bit of his music and may the four winds blow him safely home. We'll see you back here tomorrow for another edition of the Bulwark Podcast. Peace. I'm telling that what I wanna do.