The Bulwark Podcast

Episode: "Bill Kristol: Trump Has Lost the Plot"

Date: December 29, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Kristol

Episode Overview

In this engaging post-holiday episode, Tim Miller welcomes Bill Kristol for a wide-ranging conversation on the year in politics, the state of the Trump movement, the normalization of grift and extremism on the right, and the chilling consequences for American democracy. They discuss the social and institutional deterioration that’s occurred over the past year, Trump’s weakening political position alongside increasing radicalization, the ongoing Epstein document saga, a major Medicaid fraud scandal in Minnesota and its political implications, and the normalization of conspiracy thinking within MAGA world. The exchange is characteristically sharp, wry, and urgent in its tone, with both high-level analysis and plenty of memorable moments.

Key Discussions & Insights

Post-Holiday Reflections and Family Politics

[01:19 – 02:54]

• The conversation begins with reflections on how the holidays intersect with diverse religious traditions—Kristol notes many American Jews now see Christmas as a secular holiday.
• They joke about differing family traditions around Santa and Hanukkah.
• Tim highlights Andrew Egger's thoughtful newsletter about discussing politics in a Trump-sympathetic family without acrimony—a rare and "healthy" approach.

The Trump Movement: From Idea to Grift

[03:23 – 06:57]

• Discussion on the "deterioration of everything"—the ways the right has shifted from ideas into outright scams.
• Example: Former normie Republican Jake Ellzey’s fundraising texts to grandparents promising bogus “Trump tariff checks.”
• The normalization of political grift—now so standard that families fall prey to recurring donation schemes.

“It’s a kind of horrible glimpse of how everything has been normalized in a Trumpy, grifty, scammy direction.”
— Bill Kristol [06:05]

Radicalization and Incentive Structures on the Right

[06:57 – 08:39]

• “Tentacles” of the movement reach into families, with younger relatives drawn to white nationalist influences like Nick Fuentes.
• The right’s incentive structure (fundraising, attention economy) moves toward exacerbating division, not resolving it.
• A “post-Trump” right wouldn’t automatically moderate; the engine now runs on outrage and deception.

Reflecting on the Past Year: Trump’s Weakness and Lasting Damage

[08:39 – 11:54]

• Both hosts agree that, paradoxically, Trump himself is weaker (“he looks weaker, personally, I think his movement looks weaker”—Tim Miller [08:39]), but the damage done is greater than expected.
• Institutional and cultural radicalization outpaces any reduction in Trump’s popularity.
• The “elites” (business, legal, political) are central: Will they finally break with Trump, or continue to enable him for personal advantage?

“The public, I think, is in the right direction… I feel like the elites, in a way, are the swing vote.”
— Bill Kristol [11:15]

Trump’s Will to Power and the Movement Beyond Him

[11:54 – 13:24]

• Will Trump fight to hold onto power as energetically as January 6th, given age/health?
• The movement, Kristol observes, is now deeply invested in never losing power for fear of exposure and loss, making a future “soft landing” highly unlikely.

Trump’s Health & The Optics Game

[13:24 – 15:50]

• They analyze curiosity over Trump’s visible hand bruises and speculate on health issues—an underreported story, but symbolic of the focus on appearance.

Policy Failures: “Doge,” Grift, and the Diffusion of Responsibility

[15:50 – 20:56]

• Discussion of the “Doge” debacle (referring to an unnamed, disastrous policy initiative involving Musk), and its unexpected negative impact.
• The Trump administration’s penchant for unvetted, sudden pivots (and allowing powerful donors/influencers to run amok) has led to real damage for average Americans—not just “elites.”
• Historical analogy: When Bush surprised everyone with a Social Security push in 2005, public support quickly evaporated—a mismatch between priorities and the mandate.

The Decline in Trump’s Popularity

[18:30 – 20:56]

• Despite policy failures, much of Trump’s fall in approval is about style, chaos, and broken promises, not just economics.
• Structural “drift down” of public support for all recent presidents, regardless of party.

“The chaos, the meanness, the willfulness… that's probably cost him some [support]. So that's encouraging.”
— Bill Kristol [20:24]

U.S. Foreign Policy: Trump, Ukraine, and Putin

[22:56 – 26:09]

• Analysis of Trump’s bizarre, deferential comments about Vladimir Putin “wanting Ukraine to succeed,” delivered the same weekend Russia again bombed Kyiv.
• Zelensky’s patience is praised, alongside the absurdity and horror of Trump’s stance:

“It's farcical… but, you know, just so horrifying… To have an American president say that… it's a good reminder, honestly, that… fundamentally he's on the wrong side of the deep struggle that's going on in the world.”
— Bill Kristol [24:02]

Melania, Assimilation, and MAGA Hypocrisy

[26:09 – 27:40]

• Tim notes irony: MAGA rails against “non-assimilating” immigrants, while Melania Trump (barely English-speaking, limited public role, and foreign-born) is the First Lady.

Institutional Decay: DOJ, Epstein Documents, and Ongoing Cover-ups

[29:56 – 34:13]

• Explores revelations (or lack thereof) in the Epstein/Maxwell document dumps—most victim statements and key memos are still withheld.
• The Justice Department, Kristol claims, is acting to “delay as long as possible” and shield politically powerful figures:

“Their behavior is so consistent with wanting as little as possible to come out and delaying as long as possible… Maybe that's for me, the most important point.”
— Bill Kristol [31:31]

MAGA Government Chaos: DOJ Drama & Conspiracy Thinking

[36:26 – 43:57]

• Discusses farcical scenes within the DOJ: Bondi and Assistant AG Harmeet Dhillon trading nasty barbs with conservative influencers on social media; embracing loyalty to Trump as the sole virtue for career advancement.
• The Party mainstream still enables this, refusing to check or disavow the new “normal.”

“They are enabling, totally enabling this craziness.”
— Bill Kristol [39:36]

• On the pipe bomber case: Once right-wing conspiracy theories are debunked (as in the Trump-supporter bomber, not a cop or Antifa), the movement quickly cycles to new fantasies—truth hardly matters.

“It is amazing… this is, I think, part of conspiracy theories… once people drift into that world, you can get hooked.”
— Bill Kristol [43:59]

Policy Failure and Political Cowardice: The Minnesota Medicaid Fraud

[46:47 – 53:11]

• Minnesota faces a massive Medicaid fraud scandal centered on Somali-American-run operations. Right-wing figures (JD Vance, Stephen Miller) use it to demonize immigrants.
• Tim is frustrated by Democratic leaders’ reluctance to get angry about the fraud—choosing, instead, to only denounce Republican racism rather than show policy vigor.
• Bill agrees: take the fraud seriously, pursue reform and accountability, and make it clear that Democrats are responsible stewards of government.

“If we want to be the side that defends Medicaid, we got to make sure that… billions [aren’t lost]… to fraud.”
— Tim Miller [47:42]

Brief Cultural Detour: Brigitte Bardot and Generational Gaps

[53:11 – 55:08]

• Tim confesses ignorance about Bardot’s life and legacy; Kristol recalls her as an iconic French sex symbol who ended up associating with far-right politics.
• Humorous generational banter ensues.

Notable Quotes by Timestamp

• “It’s a kind of horrible glimpse of how everything has been normalized in a Trumpy, grifty, scammy direction.”
  — Bill Kristol [06:05]

• “The public, I think, is in the right direction… I feel like the elites, in a way, are the swing vote.”
  — Bill Kristol [11:15]

• “It's the farcicalness of Trump always focusing on it risks that one doesn't see how grotesque it is.”
  — Bill Kristol [24:02]

• “They are enabling, totally enabling this craziness.”
  — Bill Kristol [39:36]

• “It is amazing… once people drift into that world, you can get hooked.”
  — Bill Kristol [43:59]

• “If we want to be the side that defends Medicaid, we got to make sure that… billions [aren’t lost]… to fraud.”
  — Tim Miller [47:42]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [01:19] – Post-Christmas, family political traditions
• [03:23] – Andrew Egger’s newsletter, deterioration and scam culture
• [06:57] – Incentives in right-wing media/fundraising
• [08:39] – Reflections on the year, Trump’s weakness and increased damage
• [11:54] – Trump’s staying power, movement’s fear of losing power
• [13:24] – Trump’s health, the “hand bruise” mystery
• [15:50] – The “Doge” policy disaster, elite responsibility
• [18:57] – On presidential drift and approval ratings
• [22:56] – Ukraine, Putin, Trump’s diplomatic buffoonery
• [26:09] – Melania, MAGA hypocrisy, and “assimilation”
• [29:56] – Epstein document dump, DOJ and the art of cover-up
• [36:26] – DOJ/Trump cabinet drama, online infighting
• [40:23] – Senate complicity in Trump appointments
• [42:12] – Pipe bomber case, debunked conspiracies
• [46:47] – Minnesota Medicaid fraud, Democrats’ response
• [53:11] – Brigitte Bardot, generational pop culture
• [55:08] – Episode wrap-up and preview of next shows

Notable Moments/Tone

• The episode blends bleak, urgent political analysis with dark humor and wry generational banter.
• Frequent references to the normalization of political grift and extremism, and the complicit silence (or active participation) of Republican elites.
• Tim’s frustration with both the right’s excesses and Democratic unwillingness to address real policy problems head-on is palpable.
• The conversations are interspersed with personal, conversational asides that ground the discussion in relatable American life.

For listeners wanting a compact understanding of the ongoing struggle within American democracy, the radicalization and normalization of right-wing grift, and the difficult choices ahead for both parties, this episode provides sharp, clear-eyed analysis—and a dash of levity to balance the gloom.