The Bulwark Podcast: Bill Kristol - Trump Is Not the Right Man for a Crisis

Release Date: June 23, 2025

In this episode of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller engages in a comprehensive dialogue with Bill Kristol, Editor-at-Large at The Bulwark. The conversation traverses critical political landscapes, including the complexities surrounding former President Donald Trump, the ramifications of U.S. actions in Iran, domestic militarization, immigration enforcement, the transgender military ban, and the upcoming New York mayoral election. Below is a detailed summary of their discussion, enriched with notable quotes and timestamps for reference.

1. JD Vance's Political Predicament

Discussion Overview: Tim Miller and Bill Kristol kick off their conversation by dissecting the current political tightrope JD Vance finds himself walking. As Vice President, Vance is under intense scrutiny, especially after former President Trump's recent comments that have seemingly undermined him publicly.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Miller [02:28]: "JD just, you know, I think he's struggling to find where, you know, where the water table line is for him on this."
• Bill Kristol [06:29]: "I actually don't think it's that much of a bind... What he needs in 2028 is Donald Trump to support him, period."

Key Points:

• Trump's Impact on Vance: Trump's ambiguous stance on regime change in Iran has left Vance in a vulnerable position, trying to balance loyalty to Trump with his own policy stances.
• MAGA Base Influence: The vast majority of the MAGA base, characterized as almost cult-like, remains steadfastly loyal to Trump, complicating Vance's potential leadership trajectory.
• Internal Struggles: Vance's attempts to align with both Trump’s aggressive foreign policy desires and the isolationist tendencies of his supporters have created internal conflicts, making his political future uncertain.

2. U.S. Military Action in Iran: Justifications and Consequences

Discussion Overview: The crux of the episode revolves around the U.S. military's recent actions in Iran, specifically the bombing of nuclear sites. Kristol elaborates on the "bold case" for such interventions, while Miller presents counterarguments emphasizing potential pitfalls.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill Kristol [11:35]: "It's not as if it's their turn and we just have to sit back."
• Tim Miller [15:10]: "I think Trump taps into that, actually. And we could all say Trump was more isolationist, more restrained type..."
• Bill Kristol [27:08]: "It would have been preferable."

Key Points:

• Strategic Rationale: The bombing aims to diminish Iran's nuclear capabilities, supporting Israel and signaling U.S. commitment to countering nuclear proliferation.
• Effectiveness of Action: Kristol argues that such strikes can have a lasting deterrent effect, potentially delaying or destabilizing Iran's nuclear ambitions.
• Risks and Downsides: Miller raises concerns about increased terrorism threats to U.S. bases and questioned the necessity of Trump leading during such crises, fearing escalatory actions driven by Trump's ego.
• Domestic and International Implications: The discussion touches upon how military actions influence U.S. standing globally and domestically, with Kristol noting that such moves send a clear message to other authoritarian regimes about the U.S.'s willingness to use force when necessary.

3. Domestic Militarization and Immigration Enforcement

Discussion Overview: The podcast shifts focus to the alarming increase in domestic militarization, particularly the deployment of the National Guard in Los Angeles, and aggressive immigration enforcement tactics.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill Kristol [28:46]: "I am very alarmed about the fact that we've now normalized the use of the Guard and the Marines in LA."
• Tim Miller [30:59]: "It's a preposterous, authoritarian, offensive way for people to live."

Key Points:

• Use of National Guard: The President's decision to deploy the National Guard in LA without the state's governor's consent marks a significant overreach, reminiscent of authoritarian tactics.
• Immigration Enforcement: Kristol and Miller express deep concern over aggressive ICE operations, such as the incident involving Kiso Barranco being violently deported from an IHOP in Southern California.
• Humanitarian Impact: They highlight the human cost of these policies, emphasizing the fear and instability it instills within communities, especially among undocumented immigrants who contribute positively to society.
• Legislative Support: The reconciliation bill advancing substantial funding for ICE and border patrol, coupled with increased militarization, is critiqued as a step towards a more authoritarian state apparatus.

4. Transgender Military Ban

Discussion Overview: Miller brings up the newly enforced transgender military ban, prompting a discussion on its implications and the broader assault on transgender rights.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Miller [40:11]: "It's really sick."
• Bill Kristol [42:07]: "The animus against transgender people is disgusting."

Key Points:

• Policy Critique: The ban is condemned as discriminatory and harmful, punishing individuals for their gender identity with no valid rationale.
• Constitutional Concerns: Miller and Kristol argue that such policies violate fundamental American principles of freedom and equality, contributing to a hostile environment for transgender individuals in the military.
• Social Implications: They examine how these bans not only degrade the military's effectiveness by excluding capable individuals but also perpetuate societal transphobia.

5. New York Mayoral Election

Discussion Overview: The conversation transitions to the upcoming New York mayoral primary, critiquing the Democratic Party's candidate selection and the potential impact on the city's political landscape.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill Kristol [44:17]: "It's depressing... really pathetic."
• Tim Miller [46:43]: "Couldn't they have circled the wagons around one of the other candidates that's in the field?"

Key Points:

• Candidate Selection Issues: Kristol criticizes the Democratic Party for failing to nominate strong, moderate candidates, leading to a fragmented and ideologically extreme primary field.
• Impact on Democracy: The episode underscores concerns that such internal party struggles undermine electoral competitiveness and representation.
• Potential Outcomes: They speculate that the election might not resolve the division, potentially leaving the city with a mayoral race dominated by candidates perceived as too extreme or unqualified.

6. Conclusion and Reflections

Discussion Overview: As the podcast wraps up, Miller and Kristol reflect on the broader state of American politics, emphasizing the need for stronger political representation and cautioning against authoritarian trends.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill Kristol [48:38]: "Are really struggling... very pathetic."
• Tim Miller [49:04]: "Everyone else, we'll see you back here tomorrow for another edition of The Bulwark Podcast. Peace."

Key Points:

• Call for Better Representation: They advocate for more competent and moderate candidates within the Democratic Party to counteract the current tumultuous political environment.
• Authoritarian Vigilance: Emphasizing the dangers of normalized militarization and aggressive policies, they urge listeners to remain vigilant against authoritarian overreach.
• Future Outlook: The duo expresses skepticism about immediate political improvements but underscores the importance of continuous engagement and critique to foster a healthier democratic society.

Conclusion

In this episode, Tim Miller and Bill Kristol provide a nuanced analysis of pressing political issues, blending strategic assessments with critical perspectives on current policies and leadership. Their dialogue underscores the intricate balance between national security interests and the preservation of democratic and humanitarian values, urging listeners to engage thoughtfully with the evolving political landscape.