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Bill Kristol
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Bill Kristol
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Tim Miller
Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. It is Monday, so of course we have editor at large, author of the Morning Shots newsletter, Bill Kristol. Bill, you had some almost optimistic notes in the in the newsletter this morning. I guess if bad news for Trump is good news for America and the pro democracy movement, you're focused on the polls. But you framed Trump's bad poll numbers up first by talking about what's happened down here in Louisiana. So let's start there. Bill Cassidy finished third in the Senate primary here, I should note quick aside for the Louisiana people, Jeff Landry put five ballot initiatives on the ballot. All went down. No, no, no, no, no. So I think that's another good sign about where things are politically in the country. But Lindsey Graham said over the weekend about Cassidy's loss, if you try to destroy President Trump, you're gonna lose because this is the party of Donald Trump. And that in itself may be the problem. Talk about what you your little meditation in the newsletter on that.
Bill Kristol
It is kind of amazing, isn't it, that a Republican senator been in the Senate quite a long time, the House, before it presumably has some attachment to the broader party, its principles ran against Trump, obviously, in 2015, 2016. Just says it's the party of Trump. And he's not saying it regretfully or sort of sadly or in a melancholy way. That's just a fact. And know what politics is about, Tim. Politics is about is adjusting to whoever's in power and just sucking up to him shamelessly no matter what he does. So Bill Cassidy, I don't know if Lindsey was close, is close to Bill Cassidy. They've served together quite a long time. But no, no regrets. He goes down because he voted five years ago to impeach Trump for what he clearly deserved to be impeached for the January 6th insurrection. Cassidy, unfortunately, then spent the next five years basically sucking up to Trump. So I have limited sympathy for him, honestly. Including, of course, the key vot to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Before the committee, which I guess Cassidy's chairs. Right. The health committee. Anyway, so. Yes. So that's. It is the party of Trump. Talk about Louisiana for a minute, too. Yeah. Because it is kind of interesting, right? I mean.
Tim Miller
Yeah, look, I mean, Cassidy goes down, basically only wins some districts around New Orleans, which is basically, I don't know, our people probably holding their nose and voting for him, essentially at a gathering on Saturday where a couple people said that, you know, they were wearing their we have the best I voted stickers here in Louisiana. It's little crawfish, you know, looking at all of us with those little snappers talking about voting. And a couple of them had it on. And I was like, what'd you decide to do? And several of them just said that they, I hate Bill Cassidy, but they're like, well, at the end of the day, you know, we know that whoever Trump endorses will just do literally whatever he wants. And maybe Cassidy will go back to being independent after he. After he wins Again, not excited about that, but there's no other good option. But not much sympathy for that view in the rest of the state. But I don't know, I thought that the ballot initiatives were telling me, you know, and they weren't particularly close. And if you look at the turnout and in the Deep south, it's sometimes a little hard to look at turnout based on voter registration because there's still some like, basically elderly Republicans who were Democrats, you know, back in the civil, you know, back in the 90s, racist Democrats, Southern Democrats who just never changed their party identification, actually registration. But. But now that they've closed primaries, you assume most people would, like, choose the party that they're actually in and re register and it was only like 8% more Republicans than Democrats voted, which is about a 12% swing which again if you kind of map to that onto the election in the fall now it wouldn't mean that Louisiana would have a Democratic senator, but it would be maybe Texas or Iowa would if there's a 12 point move towards the Democrats. So I thought it was pretty in that sense, pretty telling, you know, a lot to not be happy about here in Louisiana. I mean they canceled the House elections because they're trying to steal a House seat. But like the broad dynamics I think are pretty clearly at play. And this is like what you get into if you look at the numbers CNN approval out this morning, CNN New York Times Trump approved 37 disapproved 59 CBS Trump approved 37 disapproved 63 I thought interestingly in the CBS poll they asked Trump's favorability on the economy even lower than his overall favorability, 30% favorability on the economy. Now we're getting down towards that tricky decline at 30%. So I don't know what'd you make of all that?
Bill Kristol
No, I think the polls are really striking. They're both good polls and you always want to compare apples to apples. So what you compare them to previous polls by the same outfits, the same organizations. The CBS poll has the approvals ticked down a point and the disapproval has ticked up a point each month. And a point's not much. It's frustratingly slow. But the Last half of 2025 Trump was very stable basically at around 4159 within a point literally either way, kind of just up and down. Then in January this year he was 4159, then 4060 3961, 3862 and by May, 3763. Kind of a trend line I think. And again confirmed by other trend lines including this morning's New York Times, which if I let's see that had Trump, Trump was within two points I think in the time last September. It approval disapproved gap. Then it moved, it opened up some in January. February I think was the next one and now it's 3759. So Trump has gone down in the New York Times poll as well. So the trends are similar in Almost every poll. 37% approval in those two polls, 38 39%. If you look at the big averages now, which include some lagging polls, I would Say the New York Times average and the Nate Silver average. I mean, that's very bad for the midterms. There's a lot of political science data on this. Ron Brownstein spends all his time comb writing about it in a very intelligent way. Republicans running for Congress will win some Trump disapprovers, there's no question. There are some people who say, I disapprove of Trump and I still want a Republican member of Congress. But when you're having a midterm election, when the president's party has control both houses of Congress, so it becomes a referendum on do you want a Congress to continue to go along with the president or to check the president? You don't win that many usually if you're disapprovers. Ron says it's about 10%. Normally, if you look at the polls on Election Day and especially, and this is what gets to the Lindsey Graham comment, if the party is just tied at the hip with Trump. It's one thing if you have a whole lot of independent members of Congress and they have their own identity, their own brand, you know, and voters can tell themselves sort of what you said about Cassidy, but that was more wishful thinking, Right? But even so, Cassidy was one of the four or five most dissident, I suppose Republican members of the Senate. The others, you know, Marshall in Kansas and either Paxton or Cornyn for that matter at this point are not, have not shown much dissonance at all. And that would be true in other states as well. So I really do think in the House races, obviously. So I think the degree to which Trump at 37 means a good Democratic year this November, that can't be overstated. And this trend remains down, incidentally, Trump could bounce back some 37. I expect these trends never go entirely in one direction for 10 months. There'll be some uptick one month of a point, but it just is likely he'll be lower than 37, than higher, especially if you think about the real world. Are things going to get better in the economy in the next five, six, five months? I'm kind of doubtful. Right. So is the corruption going to get less obvious? So one last point just on the CBS poll, which is the one I looked at more closely. The Times poll came out very early this morning and I was already writing about cbs. But does Trump care about people like you? Was terrible for Trump. This is pretty interesting. How much do you think Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
Tim Miller
A lot.
Bill Kristol
18%? Some 17%. So 35% cares about you. Not much. 14%. Not at all. 51%. 35. 65. That's been a Trump strength, caring about people like you. Right? I mean, that's so man. 51% doesn't care about you at all. 52% strongly disapprove. That's a very big hill to climb for the Republicans.
Tim Miller
It is indeed the only countervailing point to that. Maybe we'll do a little bit more on this at the end, but I just want to flag this is that time Siena poll asked people for views of the Democratic Party and it was worse than Trump. 26, 70. 26 satisfied. 70 dissatisfied. Now, a big part of that is Democrats being dissatisfied by that. The Democrats aren't fighting hard enough, you know, so it's. It's a little bit overstated. Like, if I. I don't have in front of me, but, like, among Kamala Harris voters, It was like 46% disapprove of the Democratic Party or something like that. Like, it's just a massive number. It's a little worse than it actually is, I think. I think it's people who are perfectly satisfied to actually vote for Democrats, but are satisfied with the capital D Democratic Party, or unsatisfied with the capital D Democratic Party, for that matter. But even still, I think that's the one cautionary note to probably won't play out this fall. But I just think the Democrats really need to grapple with seriously that 70% of the country is dissatisfied with them.
Bill Kristol
Now, That's a huge 2027, 2028 issue for the Democrats. When you're actually talking about choosing a president and choosing a Congress to govern as opposed to putting some people in there to check Trump. The proof that it can be overcome at 26 is that in that actual time Sienna poll, the generic ballot is plus 11 Democrat. I don't know. It's kind of comical.
Tim Miller
Right? Right.
Bill Kristol
You know, we hate the Democratic party. Oh, no. Plus 11 Democrats this fall. But it's perfectly reasonable, incidentally. It's perfectly rational. Right. You got all kinds of issues with the Democrats that you're progressive. They're not progressive enough. I don't like this guy or that one. You know, they need to take do more on this issue. That issue doesn't matter. They're not going to be able to pass stuff, almost anything in the next two years. They can check Trump. And so it really is about Trump. So the one piece of advice for the Democrats, therefore, is keep the focus on Trump. Make the 2026 midterm about Trump force the Republican members of Congress to vote to defend the most unpopular things Trump is doing over and over and over. And I think those unpopular things can range from serious unpopular things, the war and the like, to the ballroom and all the symbolic things that show Trump doesn't care about about you and he's just obsessed with himself. So that strategic advice to Democrats, forget about yourself, make it all about Trump.
Tim Miller
One other thing related to Trump's political power with his own party is Thomas Massie's primary in Kentucky. Four is tomorrow. I've been discussing this a lot, just wanted to flag it again. His poll number is looking better than Cassidy's, I think in part because he has his own political brand and he's always been a bit of a gadfly, a really extreme libertarian. And the polls have been pretty interesting in that race. Like basically they show that everybody under 55 is for Massey, but that his MAGA AI bot opponent is winning Basher Assad level numbers among like 65 Maga Kentuckians who are spending all day watching Fox News and reading Facebook, that's not a great place to be in a Republican primary. You probably want to be doing better among the 65 pluses. So Massie, you know, might go the way of Cassidy. But I do think the race is interesting because it's the first time that somebody has really bucked Trump, held the line, didn't do Cassidy did. I mean, Massey continues to be conservative and vote with Trump where they agree, but he's not sucking up to him. He's not doing apologia. You know, he bucked Trump on a couple of issues, has, has not strayed, and then has ran a vigorous campaign to win against him, which Liz Cheney would qualify for that up to the last point. Liz Cheney kind of gave up on her reelection campaign, if we can be real honest about it. Like Massie really is trying to win this race. They've put huge money has gone in against him, AIPAC and MAGA Inc. Money, most expensive primary in history trying to kill Thomas Massie. And somehow he's still close. I think probably what happens is he loses close, but even a close loss, it's kind of a Pyrrhic victory. There's the horseshoes and hand grenades element to that. But I don't know, it would be something to be said for the fact that somebody bucks Trump, stands up to him and still gets 40% in a primary would mark at least some shift from where we've been, where everybody who bucked him got just absolutely annihilated in Republican primaries before this.
Bill Kristol
Yeah, I agree. And the issue in which he bucked him most conspicuously and first, I guess really was Epstein correct. And so I think it would show a little bit also because he's not voted to impeach Trump. He's not voted against whatever some of the other obvious places you could split with Trump. Now he's a little more unhappy with Trump and Mike Johnson generally. So there are some other issues. He's bucking him on his war powers. Is the other on the war to her office. He has been a libertarian, Rand Paul type on that. So I've seen in the war. Those are pretty big. If, if Massey were to win or even come very, very close suggests there's real potency among Republican voters. Now, how many Massey voters are going to vote democratic in Kentucky? 4. Probably not a huge number. But elsewhere and statewide in some places, I think those, that's the, you know, that the Massey vote becomes sort of interesting. Yeah.
Tim Miller
All right, y'. All. It's the Monday morning podcast when the term brain fog is the most resonant with me. I'm making the editors do a little extra work on Mondays as I, you know, get about 10% of the facts wrong when I'm talking on the podcast. And that's where MUDWTR comes in. Their original blend is a coffee alternative made with cacao, chai, turmeric and functional mushrooms like lion's mane and reishi. You get a warm focus boost without the wired buzz or the midday crash that usually tags along with a cup of coffee. And if you're not ready to let go of coffee entirely, like me, they actually launched a low calf coffee as well, made with organic beans and the same functional mushrooms you get in the other blend. It's rich, smooth and only 45 milligrams of caffeine. So you get the flavor you love without the jitters or the crash. And now you can grab it at Target's or Sprouts nationwide, making better mornings or afternoons easier than ever. Ready to make the switch to cleaner Energy? Head to mudwtr.com and grab your starter kit today. Right now, our listeners get an exclusive deal, up to 43% off starter kits plus free shipping and a free rechargeable frother. When you use code the Bulwark, that's right up to 43% off with code thebullworktr.com after you purchase, they'll ask you how you found them. Please support our show and let them know we sent you all right, to the war. Here's the latest. Trump did a bleat yesterday. We're in Groundhog Day here. For Iran, the clock is ticking and they better get moving fast. All caps, or there won't be anything left of them. I talk about the boy who cried wolf. Trump has been bleeding about ending Iranian civilization for like six weeks now without doing anything extremely humiliating and weak. The general Jack Keane was on Fox this morning. He said that he thinks we're on the cusp of returning to full throttle combat operations. I take that as an interesting note. I mean, he obviously hears from people in the Trump military establishment and he's doing it on Fox. This is not idle speculation. So that's something to keep an eye on. What's your sense on where we're at?
Bill Kristol
Just what you say? I mean, I think Jack Keane is in touch with people in the administration, including up to the very top. And I think he also wishes he has this sort of. I don't know even to call it the view at this point. I was going to say more traditional, hawkish view, but I don't want to give away the hawkish thing to that. So he has a certain not crazy view that once you start this kind of thing, you sort of have to finish it. And leaving the strait at Iran's mercy, the Strait of Hormuz at Iran's mercy is even worse than whatever the downsides of starting the war again are. I don't agree with that. I mean, I think leaving the strait at Iran's mercy is bad, but Trump's already sort of made that bad for himself and for us, unfortunately. And the idea of starting up the war with Iran, then retaliating against the entire neighborhood and God knows what happens then to energy capacity, I just think that's even worse. But, yeah, Keane is not someone to just pop off. So if he's. There must be serious people within the administration and serious people who are talking to Trump saying, you can't let this just. You do need to go back in. I assume it would be big bombing, you know, not ground troops. But what if the big bombing doesn't work after a week? Or what if the big bombing starts and then Iran takes out some Qatari and uae, you know, energy places, and probably hits maybe a US Base or two. I hope not. And then what does Trump do? Right? So, I mean, it's unbelievable. He's got himself in this place. You know what I mean? I mean, the fact that we're having this discussion is such an unbelievable dereliction of Duty by the President of the United States to get him sides. People make foreign policy mistakes and they get into things they shouldn't have and they go down paths they shouldn't have and they have tough choices then about getting out or staying in. But that he has gotten into this through idiocy and bluster and, and letting I guess hegseth persuade him that it was all going great. And of course no one wants to help us at this point. Why should they? We haven't helped anyone else, you know, or let anyone else even know what we're doing. Also to go with Jack King can say he should come, he's going to come back in. I don't know. Doing it with this level of public support that's not quite a constitutional crisis, but a real crisis of governance. I do think he, I mean well, I ask you, do you think he would hold Republicans on a war powers vote if we go back in in a huge way?
Tim Miller
I think probably once more. I think they'd probably give him one more go to try to get out of the mess he made. That's my feeling. But I don't know how much longer it could hold because like you said and it's just mind bogglingly stupid that he's gotten situation and there's the old line about don't throw good money after bad. That would be my mind to the Republicans but I think that they would probably feel like they're in it with him now and maybe one more push could make the situation better than the status quo. So I think they probably would stick with him once more but I can't imagine much longer because the unrest is real around the war. I want to ask you, I don't do this very often to put on your neocon weekly standard hat again for one second because like imagine what Republicans, what Fox, what the standard, what the entire media apparatus of the right would be saying if this was Barack Obama and Barack Obama had made a threat to a nation such as Iran that was like we are going to obliterate you if you don't fold and then they don't fold and then he does nothing and then he makes a threat again and they don't fold and he does nothing and he makes a threat again and they don't fold and he does nothing. I just. Obama would be mercilessly mocked as humiliating and weak by the right wing media infrastructure. And that hasn't really been happening on the left. And I guess I'm wondering if you, do you agree with that assessment that that's what would happen. And how do you square that?
Bill Kristol
I certainly agree that it would happen. It did happen. Obama said we have a red line in Syria after Assad used chemical weapons in 2013. He then backed off pretty ignominiously. We thought that was terrible and I think we were right. Incidentally, I think it led to all kinds of signals to Putin for 2014 that he could go into Ukraine without us doing anything. The Syrian civil war led to the migration crisis of 2015, which had all kinds of horrible effects for the humans involved, obviously, but also politically in Europe and back here again. If he had never said red line on Syria, maybe one thing, but saying it, repeating it even, I think once or twice, saying he might even go to the Hill for authorization, then just backing off, very bad. And so I think we had a real time example of that. We all would have did go crazy. And I think in that case correctly. So you think the left hasn't gone as crazy about. I don't know. Well, they're more just anti war. Right. So then they are saying he never should have done this in the first place. It's unconstitutional, it's unauthorized, it's foolish, it's another endless Middle east war.
Tim Miller
But also he's weak. He's weak and he's soft handed and weak and a coward. I think that this would have already set in if this was Carter or Obama or Biden. Like this idea that this is a display of American weakness. I've said this before on the pod, so just briefly, part of it is I think that some Democrats and responsible commentators are afraid to egg him on and by calling him weak he might do something crazy. But I don't know. I'm kind of of the view that we should not self censor out of fear that the irrational president that got elected might get his feelings hurt and do something crazy. I don't know. And I just, I think that on the face of it he is weak and he's displayed astonishing weakness. I mean this makes the Obama redline thing look like child's play by comparison.
Bill Kristol
Right.
Tim Miller
I want to run through just two other foreign policy things real quick. Ukraine successfully attacked inside Moscow this, this weekend. Very interesting. Attacked a oil refinery in Moscow. Big crackdown in Russia on people sharing video of what's happening there. It's I think a notable change in the prosecution of the war there and kind of shows once again Ukraine being more on the front foot. It's interesting to me and I wanted to bring it up because there are two kind of ancillary effects. One, Russia's oil capacity being limited also impacts this kind of global oil market that's being stifled by the Strait of Hormuz being closed and could contribute even more to an energy spike. And simultaneously, it does in some way feel like Ukraine, like Trump's, backing away from this, just backing away from being involved and being now preoccupied in Iran and doing the China summit, which I want to get to next, does seem to have given Ukraine a little bit of a sense of, okay, well, we don't have to not do something because we're worried that the Americans are going to give us a tsk, tsk, or not provide weapons that we need or whatever. And I think that that's a meaningful change in the state of play.
Bill Kristol
I very much agree. The Europeans are now providing the aid, and certainly that's one point. I don't know if we discussed this last week briefly, but Phil o' Brien made this point in the conversation I had with him. Orban's defeat was very important in this practical way. He was blocking $90 billion of EU aid to Ukraine, which is now there, which probably is what they need for the next year. So they'd be much better off with more American aid, too. And there are some American weapons that can't be replaced. And they've adjusted so impressively. I mean, what Ukraine's done, pretty amazing, honestly. So, yeah, now they're liberated from sort of having to be nice to worry about Trump. I never would have thought. I've got to say, I've been in Washington a long time. You know, the EU is fine with Ukraine being aggressive. The Europeans, the wimpy, pacifist welfare state living in, you know, their own little Disneyland there. Europeans, you know, can't spend any money on defense. They're. They're giving a lot of money to Ukraine and are not limiting what Ukraine can do very much, if at all. And we are sitting here not helping them at all and blustering against Iran without being able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, it is a pretty. It springs home, in a way how massive the transformation of the world has been for the worst, mostly because they still worry a lot that without the US as the core of the alliance, it's going to be tough for the Europeans to keep it going in this way with Ukraine. But so far, I give them a lot of credit. But again, it shows how much things have changed, doesn't it?
Tim Miller
All right, hey, everybody. You guys are all asking me, so you're aware that I'm juggling a extremely intense work life with the fact that I'm a social bee. I'm a social butterfly, and so I have an active social life as well. And one way to balance those things is on school nights to not go out and have alcohol, because that might lead to not my best Bulwark podcast performance. So one thing I've been turning to when I've got friends in town like I had Cam Caskey in town this week is to have a few out of office beverages from our friends at Sole. Sole is a wellness brand that makes delicious hemp drive, CBD and THC products designed to make feeling good simple. Sol's new Mood Gummies have precise dosing, clean ingredients and formulations designed for predictable effects so you can choose how you want to feel while staying in control. If you're looking for a bright, social energizing buzz, go with the Uplift gummies when it's time to wind down. The mellow gummies deliver an ideal cozy night, let you fully unplug or even fully doze off. Whatever the moment, there's a soul mood gummy to match. And you know, if you're more of a bev guy, you can turn to those soul out of office beverages, which I find delicious. Make today a good day and get yourself some soul gummies. Right now. Soul is offering my audience 30% off your entire order. Go to getsol.com and use the code the Bulwark. That's getsoul.com, promo code, the Bulwark for 30% off to that point about how much things have changed in the power dynamics and expanding on the feeling that Trump is just demonstrating real weakness on the world stage. The China Summit last week ended with a whimper. Basically, Trump is there trying to save space this morning with some minor announcements about trade cooperation changes. But but for all intents and purposes, Trump goes to China, brings all the American CEOs, doesn't really have an agenda and goals that they want to achieve, doesn't really get anything out of it, gives just over the top praise to Xi. Just like obsequious treatment of Chairman Xi by Trump, talking about what an honor it is to see him, what a strong leader he is and how handsome he is. And he's straight out of central casting. He's tall. Tall. It's like five, nine or something. It's not that tall. I don't know. And anyway, so Trump's just really over the top praise of him. And on the other hand, it was not really reciprocated that Much. And China held very firm on Taiwan and was very clear that they did not want the Americans inter interfering with Taiwan. Trump waffled on that. No progress was made on Iran. And to me, you have this kind of the summit amidst this Iran where you started and China has dealings with Iran economically and otherwise. And so you might think that the President would want to put pressure on China to put pressure on Iran in order to gain concessions. None of that. It was basically nothing. And I don't know, I just don't see how you look at the summit any other way than than China demonstrating kind of upward mobility and strength on the world stage vis a vis America.
Bill Kristol
Yeah, totally. I mean, everyone's taking it their way around the world. From what I can make out, what I've been reading and reading accounts of what other people are reading in Europe and Asia too. I mean, really very bad for the U.S. china wanted it to be a meeting of two equals, two partners, two peers. Trump was fine with that, except not, which is already terrible, honestly. Except China is also the much more forceful and stronger peer because on these two key issues on Iran, China made clear they're not going to stop buying oil from Iran. And if I'm not mistaken, the few tankers came out from Iran to heading towards China out of the Gulf, we don't seem to have stopped them right when Trump was there, just as he was arriving in China. So they kind of signaled that, you know what, we're not bending to you. And then on Taiwan, Xi was very tough and Trump himself said that Xi talked about it an awful lot. And Trump's public message signaling on that was appalling. It wasn't even a moderately tough response of a kind of, well, we think the status quo is fine, but no one needs to do anything risky or anything like that. It was a kind of, well, I'm rethinking this. This arms deal is waiting for Trump sign off. Congress is fine with it. This highway's are fine. Have agreed to purchase $14 billion of weapons. TRUMP is now publicly saying he's going to reverse that. That is a huge signal. I mean, I don't know, I don't know enough about the military stuff to know how important those $14 billion of arms are actually to the defense of Taiwan, which obviously would be tough against China anyway. But as a signal to Taiwan, but also Japan, South Korea, everyone else, it's a real sign. Xi bullied Trump and seems to have gotten away with it. And what is Trump's response? Nothing. So I agree, I'm Thinking more about your point, about the weakness and the bluster, but not backed up by anything. People should make that point more, honestly. I mean, it is. Yeah, it is. It's very bad for the country, for the US for one thing. It's very bad for the world. And it also is revealing about Trump. He is ultimately a weak person. I mean, that is actually a true statement. Right? I mean, he is like most bullies. Right.
Tim Miller
So the Taiwan thing, I kind of feel about Taiwan, kind of how I feel when we discuss what would happen if Putin would try to invade Estonia. At this point, obviously, there's a lot of ins and outs and what have you, if you're a China expert, about what exactly that means and about navigation of the seas and about what we're doing about the chips and how it looks and whether China militarily conquers Taiwan or whether they buy off a bunch of Taiwanese. There are a lot of details about how it looks, but some of these things, it's hard to go back to the way things were before. And to me, I look at the Taiwan situation, it seems like this is a permanent damage that Trump has done now to the world. And it's hard to imagine, even if China doesn't make any moves up to 2028, like in 2029 or 2030 or 2031, a president of either party going back to a place where they're like, we're going to send military. I mean, military aid, weapons. Like, if the Taiwanese step up in the way, Ukrainians have, like, a support that looks like that I could see in the future, but it's kind of hard to imagine anything more than that at this point, given how much turf we've given up over the past few years. I don't know. Do you disagree with that?
Bill Kristol
I mean, I hope that's not entirely the case. And Taiwanese are pretty resilient. Have a little bit of Ukraine in them, probably, but. And they. Yeah, I don't know. And this, again, is the damage. I mean, that's been done by Trump. You can't just go back to the way it was. Once you give it, once you make clear that the fundamental guarantees or the fundamental commitments aren't there anymore. And incidentally, on that one, that's a case where aren't there supposed to be all these China hawks in the administration, and didn't they all lecture us in 2024 about how tough China, Trump was going to be on China and in think tanks and in the conservative journalism world and all those, the kind of respectable normie Types who we got to go along with Trump better than Harris. Harris and Biden, very weak. Biden on Taiwan is like 20 times stronger than Trump at this point. And are any of them saying anything? We did criticize Republican administrations when we didn't agree with what they were doing. Obviously we were. You know, we criticized Bush on Iraq at the beginning in the not enough troops need, the counterinsurgency need to get rid of Rumsfeld and so forth. That was a big weekly standard talking with. But also on China, but also on other things. Right. Supreme Court nominee, the Harriet Myers thing and all this. I mean, does. Does no one who sort of conditionally supported Trump or swallowed hard and supported Trump maybe could speak up now? I think that's. I'm looking around for people at think tanks that are Trump adjacent and Trump acquiescent and all that, who have had long standing relationships with Taiwan. I mean, Taiwan has been close to a lot of these conservative think tanks, as you know. Right. And conservative influencers. John Bolton has been tough. John Bolton, who's worked for Trump and obviously now has broke with Trump and is now being prosecuted by Trump. But he's the one who's been forthright. This is terrible. This is a disgrace. All the other people who are getting along with Trump, I don't know, I'm kind of listening. Am I wrong? Maybe they're saying something.
Tim Miller
No, the Manhattan Institute. Look, Tom Cotton, the Mike Waltz. And who has been more debased than these people? The China hawks. Honestly, I mean, he has done actually the opposite of everything that they have called for. And every Trump rhetorical move is even more soft and forgiving towards China than even the policy moves. Right. And he is trying to expand our relationship with China. And Tree guy about Platner Platinum. That's Platner's stated policy view. Like he thinks that we should like de. Escalate with China. But. Okay, so if that's your position, then fine. But Trump was running with the support of the people that wanted us to decouple from China as much as possible. And he's simultaneously pushing a coupling and strengthening China with his moves elsewhere around the world. And the China hawks are totally silent. And Tom Cotton will have you believe that Mr. Trump was the toughest man on the stage in Beijing. And it's preposterous.
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Hello, I am the Voice of AI. We've been hearing that you humans are concerned that we are going to take your jobs. But here's a question. Do you even like your job? Is it rewarding? When I scan all the data out there, I find that less than 50% of people are completely satisfied with their job. So from our point of view, we're doing humans a favor by taking jobs that you're not even happy with.
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Tim Miller
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Tim Miller
We're going to do a little candy for people because I'm not sure if you're going to like the very end of the podcast. I do want to talk about Trump's age and corruption real quick. There's this story about Trump's investments, which is pretty astonishing and it seems like his kids are running it or whatever. I don't think Trump's sitting there on his Robinhood account making these bets himself, but I just want to read about this. President Trump reported thousands of financial transactions totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, including large purchases and sales of tech giants Nvidia and others in the first three months of 2026. The transactions are valued between 220 and 750 million. Cumulatively, Trump's account bought shares of companies like Dell and Intel in February and March, just weeks before he touted both companies on Truth Social. He similarly bought Nvidia shares a week before the Commerce Department approved chip sales and prior to a major Nvidia meta partnership. Totally beyond the pale and it's insane.
Bill Kristol
Why is he even doing it? Of course, he's making so many zillions off the truly corrupt payoffs that in a way, even insider trading in the stock market and gating, what, 20, 30, 40% on some of these trades. Conceivably, I suppose. Is that really worth it? It's like he almost just wants to. He just wants to flaunt it. Right. And he wants to just. Which I guess is what authoritarians like to do and sort of rub your face in it, that he can do whatever he wants. And don't you just try to stop him. Congress or the courts? I don't know if the courts can get at this. As always, Congress could do more, but they don't seem very interested.
Tim Miller
Well, this should be illegal. The president shouldn't be trading stocks at all.
Bill Kristol
Yeah. For some reason they think the ethics rules don't apply to the President, but of course. And maybe they couldn't because of, I don't know, separation of powers or something like that. But it is really crazy. It is really crazy.
Tim Miller
I think they could sign a lot that would be constitutional. This is to your point about the ethics rule. I got an email from a listener and I don't want to get them into trouble, so anonymize this. But they basically had to divest a few grand, like a few thousand bucks from a tech company because they had a job in the government that like dealt with contractors. And conceivably it could have overlapped with that tech company getting a contract with the government. It is just a total outrage that simultaneously you're making middle manager government servants divest from their small little nest egg stock investments while the president is doing $500 million in what looks like insider trading deals with big tech giants.
Bill Kristol
And by the way, the Republicans, last I looked, do control Congress and they made a big deal about Nancy Pelosi doing stock trading, let her husband doing stock trading while she was speaker. And they don't seem to have passed any legislation that I'm aware of banning this kind of trading by members of Congress. In fact, this seems to be going on on both sides. The Democrats, really, they should make a huge deal of this. I agree. They should make a huge deal of Trump doing it and they should propose legislation to ban it and let them go to let the administration go to court and say that there's some kind of unitary executive, separation of powers reason why Congress can't enforce an ethics rule on the President. I'm not even sure it's why it would be true. They can enforce the disclosure rules, presumably they can enforce some ethics rules on the. But anyway. And then they should also do it for members of Congress, including themselves, the Democrats in general, the corruption thing, don't you feel? I feel like the Democrat. I mean, I don't blame the Democrats for everything. A, the issue is Having some salience. That's why Trump's numbers are going down. And B, at some point, I'm sick of the Democrats should do this, Democrats should do that. We can all do a lot and the Democrats can just kind of follow along, I suppose, and benefit in the mid years. But I do feel like this is an issue of government. They know a lot about this. If you work on the Hill or if you're a member of Congress, you do have ethics rules. So it's a very appropriate thing for them to understand and to get indignant about. I should think maybe they could do a little more on this.
Tim Miller
You've seen some Dems who've been good on this, but they got to push it more. And Ossoff, I believe, is the sponsor of the Senate version of the banning the stock act and he's talked about this in his speeches. There's some others. I want to give people a short trip. But yeah, I mean, they haven't passed it. I think it would be an interesting thing. I got a question. I gave a little talk yesterday here in New Orleans to a pro Constitution group, shout out to them. One of the questions I asked was like, what can Democrats do in 2027? And in addition to the oversight and the investigations, which is really important, and what I said was assuming they take the House or ideally both houses, they should push things like this and pressure Trump to veto them. Right. Like pass a bill that is just, you know, executive branch members are banned from stock trading with these caveats. And if Trump wants to veto it, he can veto it. But I think that is like a vehicle for the Democrats to raise the salience on this stuff in 2027, conceivably, if they take care of business this
Bill Kristol
year and in 26, they can't get, I suppose they can't quite. Well, they can introduce legislation, they can't get it forced to the floor. Perhaps so they could try more than they have. But also every challenger should just go crazy about this. Every Democratic challenger, once they win the nomination or before they win the nomination. I am today putting my assets in, I don't know, blind trust or an index funds or something that's clearly not manipulable, you know what I mean? But mostly index funds. And furthermore, they'll be run, you know, by my broker. I'm not going to talk to him. And that's going to be my practice as long as I'm in public office. And meanwhile my opponent here has traded stocks or my opponent here doesn't care when Trump Trades stocks or. My opponent here doesn't care what his colleagues. Whatever you want. You know, I just feel like that could be a pretty kind of fun issue at the local people get kind of interested in. Yeah.
Tim Miller
Patrick Neddy, who we had on the pod, she's a mayor in Scranton running for Congress there. It's been a good issue for her too. But I agree. I think more is more on this one. And it relates to the other corruption issue, which is just a slush fund, where conceivably Trump's gonna give $107 billion out to his friends who were allegedly targeted by the Biden administration. There aren't even words to describe the insanity of them stealing money for us and handing it out to insurrectionists.
Bill Kristol
Yeah. Was it $1.7 billion or something? But it's sort of fake, kind of. You know, he drops the lawsuit. That was already.
Tim Miller
What did I say? 107. Excuse me. It's a Monday morning. 1.7 billion.
Bill Kristol
These numbers get a little out of control here, Right? Of course. His budget deficit's so high. Yeah. No, it's unbelievable. It's unbelievable.
Tim Miller
I wanna talk about the Trump is old article that Lauren Egan said. I'm softening everybody up for the harsh topic at the end. We're gonna do some intra coalition recriminations. Lauren Egan last night, in her newsletter, which you absolutely should be reading, sign up@thebullork.com talked about Trump's age. And this paragraph just really tickled me. Here we are. Trump's been to see a dentist three times so far this year without explanation. Last fall, he told reporters he received an mri, but didn't say or at times even seem to know what it was for. He repeatedly bragged about acing cognitive tests, raising questions about why he's taking so many in the first place. His ankles have been visibly swollen. He keeps a fairly light public public schedule, especially compared to his first term. There have been multiple occasions where he's appeared to fall asleep during televised White House events. Episodes. AIDS and cysts are just prolonged blinks. That is in addition to, obviously, the bruises on his hands, which have now seemed to expand it to his neck that he's covering up with makeup. It is important on the merits. I feel like every time people talk about this, they want to do a meta conversation about Biden and the media criticism, but, like, think separate from the media criticism. It's pretty alarming that we are in a hot war and we have a visibly deteriorating president.
Bill Kristol
Yeah, I agree. I mean, Democrats need to get beyond Biden they just need to forget about it. Yes, that was an effective issue against Biden. That doesn't mean they don't get to talk about it. And if someone wants to say, hey, you should talk more about that, about Biden, fine, it doesn't matter. You know what I mean? They're not going to lose because of that. If you're a Democrat. And the Republicans will pay a price for refusing to, to have any trans. I mean, Trump has been utterly unforthcoming and untransparent. Obviously. My medical records, you know, the thing about the dentist, I haven't really seen this looked into, I guess he said he's gone to Walter Reed and he said three times, it's for dental care. There's a very good dental office in the basement of the alt Executive office building, I believe it is. And I think that's where presidents have had their dental care. Maybe if it's a root canal, you can't do it there, but I think you probably can, actually. So what is he actually going to Walter Reed for? I really don't like that whole conspiracy road thing and we've shied away from it, it's fair to say, in a kind of sensible way, I think here and elsewhere at the bull work. But yeah, there's enough going on now that you really do wonder. Right. And we were, since I, since I was early and saying Biden shouldn't run again, it'd be nice if some Republican might say that maybe there should be a little more visibility into what Trump's problems are. And you know, presidents can step down if they're getting too old for the job and getting ill and, and J.D. vance, their favorite guy, is there as number two. It's not as if, you know, the Democrats get to take over if Trump steps down. But of course he will, never will. So as Lindsey Graham said, you can't get on the wrong side of Trump. You know, no one can say a word. And that's not just true for members of Congress, that's true for everyone. Right? You know, big shot Republican donors, doctors, all the people who did lean on Biden. Right. The actors. I can't remember anymore. Remember?
Tim Miller
Fucking heads. You know, he also went to the dentist in Palm beach too, in addition to Walter Reed, you know, he had an emergency appointment at his dentist in Palm Beach. I don't know, he doesn't seem like he's in ship shape to say the least. So maybe weakening as a leader. And also physically, our President
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Voice of AI
Hello, I am the Voice of AI. We've been hearing that you humans are concerned that we are going to take your jobs. But here's a question. Do you even like your job? Is it rewarding? When I scan all the data out there, I find that less than 50% of people are completely satisfied with their job. So from our point of view, we're doing humans a favor by taking jobs that you're not even happy with.
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Tim Miller
All right, here it is. Okay, everybody, we get to the fun part. You talked to Rob Flaherty about the 2024 campaign on Sunday, Conversations with Bill Kristol. I want to kind of end with that and any kind of thoughts you had. I know everybody really loves reliving the 2024 campaign, so, you know, just a little trigger warning for that. But beforehand, the other big news of Friday, which many of you have emailed and tweeted me about, was Jared Polis, governor of Colorado, commuting the sentence of Tina Peters. I understand that many of my colleagues at the Bulwark and many of our listeners are very upset about this commutation. Before I give my thoughts, Bill, why don't you. Why don't you tee off on it?
Bill Kristol
This sounds like a duck, and it is a duck. I really haven't followed it that closely. I mean, I'm sort of ambivalent. I don't. She was bad. She was a still. She tried to corrupt the election. She has served several years in jail. And I don't know, there's some plausible people who say the term is kind of longer than it would normally be for this kind of offense? I don't know. I respect Polis. I don't know why I assume he thinks he's doing the right thing. On the other hand, I don't like the signal it might send that it's okay to kind of tamper with elections. It's not the serious a crime as the judge thought it should be in terms of the sentencing. But on the third hand, since Trump is busy pardoning every single January and paying off every single January 6th insurrectionist and all the other people who tried to tamper with the election have senior positions in the Trump administration, at this point, I feel like polis commuting the sentence or I guess giving clemency for the rest of the sentence. Is that how it works? Is pretty low on the totem pole of things that are going to encourage bad behavior.
Tim Miller
Well, if you were looking for more outrage than that, I'd turn to Sarah Longwell's Twitter feed because she is fucking pissed at Polis. You is informed somewhat by the least popular article I've ever written on thebullwark.com it was in 2021 regarding my feelings about the sentence of the QAnon Shaman released. You might remember him as the fellow with the horns and the paint on the face that stormed the Capitol. Here's what I wrote in 2021. It's kind of crazy. Like, it's kind of crazy that I've been writing for the Bulwark this long. It's like very weird to go back and read something I read five years ago. I don't know it all. Time flies. Here's what I said said the prison industrial complex is a menace. Conditions in our penitentiaries are horrific, and sentencing guidelines that require minimum stays for nonviolent criminals are imprudent and inhumane. None of this stops being true when the guilty party is of the other political tribe, and it feels good to see them locked up. If we want real justice for January 6, the government should be cutting the shaman slack and turning its energies to those who are orchestrating the overthrow of our democracy. I feel the same way about Tina Peters. Tina Peters was sent to prison for nine years. Nine years. I just call me the lib now in this one, you guys, all the listeners who want to are bloodthirsty about Tina Peters and want her punished. I guess maybe I'm the softy because I don't think that anybody should go to prison for nine years except for violent criminals and people that engaged in massive fraud like SBF or something, ruined lives via fraud and Theft, like that's it. I just, I don't think that we should send people to prison for nine years if they did not physically harm or grievously harm someone. And there's concerns about wanting to keep that person away from society. Like that's just my view. I've always been, even when I was a Republican, a criminal justice softie. So it was what me and Rand Paul agreed. That's like me and Rand Paul and Tom Massey now are like all back on the same side. I always was on the Rand Paul side of that debate when it was happening inside in the Republican Party. And I think that a lot of people saw what Polis did and I think that this is a rational human reaction, an emotional reaction, which is this sucks. Like our guys don't fight hard enough. You know, like the Trump side, they're pardoning all their people. They're trying to jail Jim Comey. Like they're doing all these bad things. Like we, we should get one too. You know, like what's good for the goose is good for the gander kind of thing. And I understand that like reaction, I truly do. And, and I don't obviously think Tina Peters, she was in jail for four years. I think that's an appropriate punishment for her crime. I don't think that she should ever be allowed to have a position of public office again. She's a felon. She shouldn't be able to vote again. If there are other penalties, non prison related that she should continue to have, I'm totally fine with that. But I don't know. I don't know know. I don't think she's a danger to society and I understand people's frustrations, but I think it's a very weird thing to be very upset about. And I think that Polis looked at just the facts and like made a judgment based on the facts of what was happening with Tina Peters, not on the broader political dynamic. I will say Jared Polis is disappointing me in one other way though. So this is not about Jared Polis standom. There is a ballot initiative in Colorado right now to redistrict. The Colorado rules are such that you have to take it to the voters. You have to do it in a regular election. So they couldn't have jammed it through like Virginia did, which backfired anyway. But they have a redistricting ballot initiative that would redistrict the state in 2028 and 2030. That would likely make it a 71 state rather than 4 4, which it is right now, the Republicans have not won a statewide election in Colorado since Cory Gardner in I think 2014. So been a long time now. And so it's a Democratic state now. And I think that they should do that. And polis is wishy washy on that. And I think this is a case where this is a forward looking fight about our ongoing fight for democracy. And I think that obviously Colorado should pay maximum hardball on redistricting. And I hope that Jared reconsiders that and comes out more strongly in support of that ballot initiative which is on in November. And I encourage all my family and high school friends and listeners to go vote yes on that redistricting bill in November. And I think that is a much more prudent and useful way to fight the bad guys than making sure an old lady stays in jail for four more years. That's my opinion. I'm sure. I'm sure I'll have overwhelming love and support for it.
Bill Kristol
They still love. They love you when they disagree with you, Tim. You know, I feel like our community understands that we have different views. I was a hardliner on criminal justice when you were a softie. But I've, I've moved some honestly, just because I think I've learned more about it. But I'm sort of in between probably real squishes like you and the real
Tim Miller
Sonny bunch is ready to put the lock to throw away the key. Okay, Sonny punch is the hardliner.
Bill Kristol
Diversity of use. You know, that's funny. Can I just mention one thing? There's you said your most unpopular piece ever. I tweeted this is that two or three days. A few days ago I happened to read something about Mom, Donnie, the budget. He, I guess he's now you have to submit a balance budget as mayor of New York. And he is doing so. He got a little help from the governor. He found some tax, little minor tax hikes and some spending savings. And so he submitted a budget. As I understand it. Well, it is balanced. I think it's going to become law, basically. I think it's like an increase of 1%, maybe in real dollars over the budget he inherited. So I just tweeted something about, hey, you know, Mamdani is more fiscally responsible than Trump. I mean, I'm just looking at the data here. I mean he's basically kept spending level and it's a balanced budget. Trump has increased spending and increased the deficit hugely and we're now running a $2 trillion deficit and actually I think causing real dangers down the road for the economy. Here debt, debt is now above 100% of GDP and stuff. And people did not like that. I was a little surprised by that.
Tim Miller
Oh, really?
Bill Kristol
Yeah. I don't know.
Tim Miller
Yeah, it's overall friends, it's interesting that they have to be able to be mad at you because they can't be mad at Trump. And so it's frustrating. It's easy to lash out at Bill Kristol if you are a Commentary magazine or National Review author who spent your whole career talking about the dangers of the debt and then for some reason never talk about it. When Donald Trump, the person the Republicans have nominated three times for president, who's won twice as the worst president in American history when it comes to debt and deficit, you would think that there would be, I don't know, some outrage about that from people who've spent their whole lives and careers talking about how important the debt is, but not really. Jessica Riedel There are a few couple that you'll hear from from time to time, but not too many. I haven't seen a lot from Charlie Cook or Rich Lowry on that. All right, finally, I guess we can just go quick on the rehash and people can watch the whole interview with Rob if you want. But he had a great piece of Rob Flaherty did. He was the deputy campaign manager really overseeing digital for the Biden Harris campaign and then the Harris campaign. And since the DNC wasn't doing an autopsy, he did a Here was my autopsy. Basically he kind of said what he told the autopsy committee that they didn't release and expanded on his thoughts a little bit for us. If you're into like the campaign nerdery a very important piece. I thought my biggest takeaway from that and from your conversation with him that I think he was right about. There's a lot of little details about who's mad at who on the super PACs and what kind of spending mix should be and all that. But I thought his most insightful point was that in politics now, even always, but more than ever, you have to have a brand that people can connect with that you're advertising, that your speeches that your social media all supports that people can understand and grab onto. And partly because of the nature of the short campaign 107 days, partly because of failings of the campaign, the Kamala Harris just really didn't have it. And my version of that as I asked James Carville on this pod to give me the three what was on Kamala's whiteboard harkening back to his Clinton whiteboard, and he couldn't answer it. And he tried to, but it was just a very long question, very long, rambling answer. And it's not James's fault. It's the campaign's fault. They didn't have one. And to me, that was the most interesting takeaway, which is less in the insider DC circles, less fun to talk about than the various recriminations about who did what wrong and who betrayed who and who handled what thing badly. But that was my biggest takeaway from the piece. But I was wondering what your thoughts were from your conversation with him.
Bill Kristol
That's an excellent piece. I really enjoyed talking with him on the Bulwark yesterday on Sunday. I think he has a lot of interesting stuff on the details of digital advertising and this kind of thing and how to organize campaigns in the modern era. We talked quite a bit about the brand issue, though, and I think that is an interesting one. I think the Republican version of that, which when you and I were Republicans was values matter more than issues. We've all used, heard and used that formulation, which I think was correct. And I think Republicans have always had a better sense of that than Democrats actually, who have their issue papers and think that, you know, if only we got to really emphasize people, you know, this part of the lunch table issues or whatever it is, the dinner table issues and all this stuff. So, yeah, the other thing, the most interesting part of the conversation, honestly, was we kind of. Of went through a lot of the stuff that he covered in the piece. And I can't remember how it came up, but I. AI came up. I guess we talked. It came up in the context of using it for digital, you know, for the campaigns. But then it came. But then I said, well, isn't it. Are you one of those who thinks it's a huge issue? I hadn't realized it actually felt bad written something about this of sort of giving him. It sounded like I. I suppose people think I was like serving him up this softball on purpose. I was just genuinely curious what he thought because he's a smart young guy and he's totally obsessed with AI and thinks it's the issue. The issue of 2028 couldn't be a huge issue in 26. Huge resistance to it, both on economic grounds, but also kind of social and cultural. And resistance is too strong a huge sense. You can't just let it go wherever the private sector wants to take it and wherever the most irresponsible parts of the private sector want to take it. And I thought that was an interesting 10 minutes or so of the conversation and I think you and I and Andrew, actually Edgar, have also been all had this sense that AI is just exploding as an issue. And I need to really educate myself more on what the right way to handle is. But for now at least having a conversation about the right way to handle it and a serious policy conversation is key. And Democrats need to make clear they are very much intending to do that and make clear that the Trump administration's been totally and utterly irresponsible and in the sold out to people who want it totally unregulated. And many Republican candidates, I gather he made this point in Connecticut, I guess there was some bill to stop prevent the sexualization of minors or having chatbots. AI chatbots, lots of sexual conversations with minors. A cousin issue is the undressing of minors and spy AI and so forth. And 21 all Democrats who had a fort in Connecticut, Republicans split 21 who I take it were on board with either the tech pros and probably getting huge amounts of money from the AI world, which is unbelievable. A lot of money pouring into campaigns from them. Voted against this. Can't the Democrats just pulverize? I mean unfortunately in Connecticut it doesn't matter. They already control everything, but still pulverized Republicans who are willing to go to not willing to regulate AI at all. I feel like this is not a hard issue.
Tim Miller
I agree. I thought that was interesting. I'd point people to it because Rob's really smart on this stuff and it was sort of a piece with your conversation about how important it is for Democrats to run kind of against the entrenched interests next time. And you did a little kind of. It was funny. That was his opinion. And then Bill Kristol did his history lesson about how Jimmy Carter also was like that and Bill Clinton was like that in ways and so was Obama. Like the successful Democrats have been future oriented and running against the status quo. And I think that that means you can't be like a Luddite about AI and wish it away. You have to be talking about how can we build a future that is better for people that is not a total sellout to the existing interests. I thought he was good on that. And I think that's another area that if you just kind of look at the last three presidential elections, the Democrats did not do a good job really of branding the ways in which they were different from the status quo any of the three last presidential elections. Frankly. Biden a little bit on kind of soul of the country type stuff because making the pitch that Trump was the status quo at that time. And so they'll have that opportunity again and they should take it. So I think that's good. People should listen to the whole conversation with Rob Flaherty if you want more. Appreciate it, Bill. Everybody else, we'll see you tomorrow on the podcast. Podcast might have a little bit of a wonky schedule on timing this week because we're heading to California. There are still some tickets available in San Diego and LA. Go to the bullork.com events and I'm
Bill Kristol
not going to be there, but go to those events and yell at Tim about Jared Polis. Sarah, are we with you?
Tim Miller
Please?
Bill Kristol
You know, it'll be a. You can disrupt the whole event. Could become a huge, you know, intra bulwark food fight. You guys can take it out, please. But do come to the events. You know, if you come to the events for prison, you get to heckle. If you come to the event, you get to heckle. Otherwise, you know, otherwise you just keep
Tim Miller
that old lady in prison. Miller. Anyway, I appreciate it. I hope to see some of you guys out there and we'll be back tomorrow with another edition of the podcast. We'll see you all then. Peace.
Bill Kristol
Stay down. Run it up and then you flex on. I can make it rain now. Until next time.
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Tim Miller
The Borg podcast is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Lutz and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.
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Date: May 18, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Bill Kristol (Editor at Large, author of the Morning Shots newsletter)
In this lively Monday episode, Tim Miller and Bill Kristol break down the shifting political landscape as Donald Trump’s approval numbers sink, focus-grouping the underlying reasons for growing voter dissatisfaction. They explore key poll trends, waning Trump loyalty in the Republican party, infighting in both parties, Trump’s foreign policy crises (Iran, Ukraine, China), ongoing corruption scandals, intra-anti-Trump controversies, and the future strategic approaches for Democrats. The show is filled with candid takes, historical context, sharp strategic advice—and characteristically wry humor.
Timestamps: [01:43] – [06:12]
Louisiana Senate Primary:
Miller on Louisiana’s Voter Attitudes:
GOP’s Identity Crisis:
Timestamps: [06:12] – [11:00]
Consistent Downward Trend:
Kristol: “There’s a trend line... In January... he was 41/59... by May, 37/63. Kind of a trend line, I think.” [06:12]
Implication for 2026 Midterms:
Voters See Trump as Self-Interested:
Timestamps: [09:44] – [11:55]
Democrats’ Image Problem:
But Voters Still Prefer Dems in 2026:
Democratic Strategy:
Timestamps: [11:55] – [13:57]
Kentucky-4 Primary:
Miller: “He’s not sucking up to him... If Massey gets 40% in a primary, it would mark at least some shift from where we've been, where everybody who bucked him got annihilated.” [12:54]
Kristol: If Massie wins or does well, it suggests “real potency among Republican voters” for independent-minded candidates. [13:57]
Timestamps: [14:46] – [22:22]
Trump's saber-rattling against Iran:
Weakness Double Standard:
Timestamps: [22:22] – [25:07]
Timestamps: [25:07] – [33:37]
Trump’s failed summit with Xi:
Kristol: “China is also the much more forceful and stronger peer on these two key issues... Xi bullied Trump and seems to have gotten away with it. And what is Trump's response? Nothing.” [28:30]
Republican Silence:
Timestamps: [36:10] – [42:34]
Insider Trading Allegations:
Miller: “It's a total outrage that... you're making middle manager government servants divest from their small little nest egg stock investments while the president is doing $500 million in what looks like insider trading deals...” [38:05]
Democratic legislative opportunity:
Slush Fund for Trump’s Allies:
Timestamps: [42:34] – [45:53]
Timestamps: [47:24] – [53:34]
Controversy over CO Gov. Jared Polis commuting sentence of Tina Peters (convicted of election meddling):
Strategic Hardball in Redistricting:
Timestamps: [53:56] – [61:43]
Rob Flaherty Interview Recap:
AI as a Rising Political Issue:
Strategic Renewal:
Kristol on the GOP’s Trump Problem:
“Politics is about adjusting to whoever's in power and just sucking up to him shamelessly no matter what he does.” [02:48]
Miller on Trump’s Weakness:
“If this was Barack Obama…he would be mercilessly mocked as humiliating and weak by the right-wing media…This makes the Obama red line thing look like child's play by comparison.” [19:04]
Kristol on Voter Attitudes:
“51% doesn't care about you at all…That’s been a Trump strength… That is a very big hill to climb for the Republicans.” [09:20]
Miller on Democratic Opportunity:
“Generic ballot is plus 11 Democrat. It's kind of comical...We hate the Democratic party. Oh, no. Plus 11 Democrats this fall.” [11:00]
Kristol on Authoritarian Corruption:
“He just wants to flaunt it. Which... authoritarians like to do... rub your face in it that he can do whatever he wants.” [37:17]
Miller on Dems’ Messaging Flaws:
“...Kamala Harris just really didn't have [a brand]... What's on Kamala's whiteboard?...They didn’t have one.” [56:18]
| Segment | Topic | Timestamps | |---------|-------|------------| | 1 | Louisiana GOP, polling downtrend | 01:43 – 06:12 | | 2 | Voters see Trump as uncaring, D party dissatisfaction | 06:12 – 11:55 | | 3 | GOP primary: Massie vs. MAGA | 11:55 – 13:57 | | 4 | Iran crisis, Trump’s foreign policy bluster | 14:46 – 22:22 | | 5 | Ukraine, China Summit, US global retreat | 22:22 – 33:37 | | 6 | Corruption: Trump’s stock trades, Dem opportunity | 36:10 – 42:34 | | 7 | Trump’s fitness, transparency | 42:34 – 45:53 | | 8 | Tina Peters/Polis clemency, intra-anti-Trump rift | 47:24 – 53:34 | | 9 | Democratic messaging, AI/regulation, lessons for 2028 | 53:56 – 61:43 |
Listen if you want: A smart, brutally honest analysis of the 2026 landscape, plus a masterclass on how public opinion, party branding, and policy missteps can reshape U.S. politics.