The Bulwark Podcast

Episode: Chris Hayes: Trump Has Become 'The Establishment'
Date: November 11, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Chris Hayes (Host of “All In” on MSNBC, author of The Sirens' Call)

Episode Overview

In this candid and wide-ranging discussion, Tim Miller is joined by Chris Hayes to break down the latest political landscape in America, focusing on the post-shutdown Democratic strategy, the shifting dynamics of establishment versus anti-establishment politics, and how Donald Trump has morphed from an outsider into the core of the GOP establishment. The pair also delve into the attention economy, trends in electorate sentiment, redistricting, and the dangerous permutation of internet-fueled conspiracies and extremism.

The episode is characterized by a mix of deep analysis, honest critiques, and sharp humor—a hallmark of The Bulwark. The conversation explores the root causes and implications of shifting political attitudes, the rise of crank and conspiratorial thinking, and the complex, often contradictory tides in American public opinion ahead of 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Government Shutdown, Filibuster, and Democratic Tactics

• Main Question: Did Democrats "cave" or make the right choice in ending the shutdown?
  • Chris Hayes: Sympathetic to the view that the Democrats made the only possible decision given the circumstances ([02:01]).
    • “There's an asymmetry that's always in all of these fights... Democratic politicians... genuinely, truly believe their job is to, like, deliver things to people to make the government work. And it freaks them out when, like, federal workers aren't getting paid and SNAP is cut off.” —Chris Hayes ([03:55])
• On the Filibuster Debate:
  • Both agree the possibility of victory on substance (i.e., winning GOP support for Obamacare subsidies) was extremely unlikely.
  • Hayes expounds on his long opposition to the filibuster, critiquing how it’s gutted Congressional power and favored right-wing priorities ([03:00], [10:49]).
    • “You need a simple majority to put in lifetime judges who will rule for right wing causes and a simple majority to cut taxes. And those are the two domestic priorities of Republican party and everything else you want to do, which are the priorities of the Democratic party, you need 60 votes. So, boy, what a cool system.” —Chris Hayes ([11:01])
• On Democratic Messaging:
  • Both criticize the party’s inconsistent, poorly coordinated messaging around the shutdown and the limits of what could actually be accomplished ([06:16]).

2. Redistricting and Electoral Landscape

• Notable positive changes for Democrats due to recent redistricting court decisions in Utah and Virginia, bringing more parity to the House ([13:13]).
• Cautious optimism due to looming SCOTUS cases on the Voting Rights Act that could backfire dramatically ([14:29]).

3. The “Attention Economy” and Political Campaigning

• Hayes discusses his book’s core theme: Democrats must update campaign strategies for an era where attention, not just advertising, wins voters ([17:28]).
  • “You need to have a theory about how you're going to get in front of the voters that isn’t just, we'll raise a lot of money and run a lot of TV ads on local news.” —Chris Hayes ([23:11])
• However, the recent victories of more “boring” Democratic candidates (Spanberger in VA, Sherrill in NJ) show that structural factors and not campaign flashy-ness often matter more ([18:07]).
• Both agree that high-attention Trumpian tactics have failed spectacularly for some Republicans (Kari Lake, Blake Masters), suggesting attention is a double-edged sword ([24:44]).

4. Changing Voter Patterns and Party Messaging

• Discussion on the shifting dynamic: Non-voters, who once pulled Democratic, may now lean right, forcing a rethink of strategies for both parties ([20:08]).
• Ongoing debate about whether Democrats can/should run as outsiders “against the establishment” in 2028, given the historical pattern of successful anti-status quo presidential bids ([28:06]).

5. Public Mood: Governors vs. Washington

• Hayes highlights the unusual disconnect: Most governors have high approval ratings, regardless of party, while the sitting president remains deeply unpopular. Theories include the nationalization and “entertainment-ification” of American politics ([29:03]).
  • “The national political scene is about winning some existential battle for the future of our culture and society and that the governor's job is to make sure schools are okay.” —Tim Miller ([30:29])

6. Establishment vs. Anti-Establishment: Trump’s Shift

• Both agree: Trump, once anti-establishment, now embodies it—hobnobbing with billionaires, embraced by tech and finance, and responsible for the status quo ills he once attacked ([36:17]).
  • “It was always the case that this guy was going to be, is a billionaire, is friends with billionaires and wants to hook them up. That was always the case.” —Chris Hayes ([38:02])
• Hayes contends that the anti-establishment energy has begun to shift back to Democrats, especially as tech leaders and corporate America openly court Trump ([37:52]).

7. Crank Politics, Antisemitism, and Online Information Risks

• Anxieties about the “crank realignment” and rising antisemitism as conspiracy theory and anti-Israel content cross-pollinate between left and right via social media algorithms ([41:51]–[46:24]).
  • “Every conspiracy theory ends up... with the Jews as the secret puppet masters. Marx called it the socialism of fools.” —Chris Hayes ([42:11])
• Hayes and Miller express serious concern about young people being led through algorithm-driven rabbit holes from genuine war criticism into overt bigotry ([43:49]–[45:43]).
• Urgent call for progressives who criticize Israel to explicitly draw lines and denounce antisemitic conspiracy theorists infiltrating their arguments ([48:12]).

8. The Culture of Conspiracy and Tech Influence

• Extended riff on how figures like Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and tech leaders are opportunistically chasing the “crank” market, even if it means courting extreme and antisemitic views ([45:50], [54:58]).
• Humor and warning converge as they mock Marc Andreessen’s blasé dismissal of ethical concerns about AI, foreshadowing the potential for profound political backlash if tech bubbles burst ([54:58]–[57:08]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Congressional Dysfunction and the Filibuster:

  “The filibuster, to me, has been part of the process by which Congress has neutered itself, and the vacuum has been filled by the executive.” —Chris Hayes ([03:00])

• On Democrats and Messaging During the Shutdown:

  “We're the only responsible party in this entire governance. Donald Trump's talking about how SNAP is a Democrat program. Russ Vought is Darth Vader. They like hurting people. They like it when people suffer. We don't like that.” —Chris Hayes ([06:17])

• On the Double-Edged Sword of Attention:

  “The high leverage approach often backfires... All attention’s good attention, even if it’s negative, was a disastrous approach for Blake Masters, Kari Lake, Herschel Walker, Doug Mastriano.” —Chris Hayes ([24:44])

• On the Realignment of Establishment/Anti-Establishment:

  “Trump finally owns some of this stuff, finally... Trump, once anti-establishment, now is the establishment.” —Chris Hayes ([37:52])

• On Conspiracy Culture and Antisemitism:

  “It’s like every conspiracy theory ends up... Marx called it 'the socialism of fools.' So there's a relationship here to me, because the enduring power of the Jews as The Secret Puppet Masters as a long running thread in Western discourse and the kind of up for grabs, crank realignment, polarity are colliding to me in this way.” —Chris Hayes ([42:11])

• On Risks of Social Media and Algorithmic Radicalization:

  “I've talked to kids who... are starting to think the Jews killed Charlie Kirk... I'm pretty worried that... some young people that get kind of sucked into this pipeline of the Candace stuff. Because the entry point was this war.” —Tim Miller ([44:44])

Key Timestamps

• 00:12 – Podcast Introductions and Guest Welcome
• 01:24 – Shutdown Politics and Democratic Strategy Analysis
• 03:00 – Filibuster Debate and Congressional Neutering
• 06:16–07:02 – Democratic Messaging and Shutdown Takeaways
• 13:13 – Dramatic Redistricting Shifts
• 17:28–20:35 – The Attention Economy in Political Campaigning
• 29:03 – Why Are Governors Popular and Presidents Unpopular?
• 36:17–38:02 – The Trump Establishment Paradox and Anti-Establishment Windows
• 41:51–46:24 – Crank Realignment, Social Media, and Rising Antisemitism
• 48:12–49:18 – Drawing Lines Between Critique of Israel and Antisemitism
• 54:58–57:08 – AI, Tech Elite, and Risk of Populist Backlash

Tone & Style Highlights

• Candid and irreverent, mixing sharp critiques of both parties and the political media ecosystem.
• Balances wonky policy commentary with cultural insight and humor (e.g., extended wallet ad riff, sports banter in closing segment).
• Reflects deep unease about the rise in crank politics and conspiratorial thinking, but maintains hope that political tides can shift.

Conclusion

This episode offers an incisive snapshot of American politics at a volatile moment, arguing that Trump’s absorption by the establishment opens—if only briefly—a strategic opportunity for Democrats, while also warning of the dangers of unbridled conspiracy culture and digital disinformation. Hayes and Miller deliver both pessimistic diagnoses and practical takeaways for those invested in defending liberal democracy against authoritarian and crank currents.