The Bulwark Podcast

Episode Title: David Plouffe: Democrats Have to Run Against Their Party
Date: January 20, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: David Plouffe (Obama 2008 Campaign Manager, former Kamala Harris advisor)

Episode Overview

In this engaging and candid conversation, Tim Miller sits down with David Plouffe to dissect the current state of American politics, focusing on the Democrats’ electoral challenges, the implications of Trump’s recent actions, and the urgent need for the Democratic Party to fundamentally rethink its strategy—possibly by running against elements of its own establishment. The episode covers foreign policy volatility, GOP autocracy, Democratic messaging on immigration, party leadership, tech policy, and upcoming leadership contests for 2028.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Foreign Policy Escalation, Greenland Obsession, and Economic Fallout

• Discussion of Trump’s erratic conduct at Davos (incl. Greenland memes, undermining NATO, leaking leader texts)

  • Plouffe underscores the seriousness beneath the absurdity:
    • “You’d always like to laugh at this stuff, but, you know, this is an incredibly serious moment.” (03:29)
    • Trump’s fixation “would shred our alliances, it would shred NATO…it’s really scary.” (03:54)

• Electoral and Economic Consequences

  • Plouffe argues Democrats need to tie Trump’s behavior to kitchen-table impacts:
    • “He’s now threatening higher tariffs, which means higher prices for Americans to steal Greenland, which nobody in America really supports.”
  • Tim Miller notes even moderate GOP voices won’t push back:
    • “Tillis... even if Trump did kinetic action in Greenland, he wouldn't go for impeachment. Why are we even talking about kinetic action in Greenland?” (05:25)

• Danger of GOP Enablers

  • Plouffe: Every Republican must be held accountable for enabling Trump:
    • “There should be no daylight between Trump and these House Republicans and Senate Republicans. They are as responsible for everything that's happening as he is.” (07:31)

2. Republican Party Dynamics & Lack of Guardrails

• Psychological Profiles

  • Plouffe jokes that, in the White House, Trump’s psychological profile “is literally a sentence long: flatter him and you’ll get what you want.” (10:10)

• Appeasement vs. Confrontation

  • Referencing Gavin Newsom’s tougher stance (“it’s time to buck up”), Plouffe says appeasement of Trump doesn’t work and world leaders need to honestly lay out the dangers to U.S. and allies:
    • “I'd like to see European leaders begin to paint a picture of if Trump doesn't stop this, this is where this is headed... This is wildly unpopular. It'll get more unpopular when people think I’m going to pay an economic price and American soldiers are going to go to war with their allies.” (11:55)

• Business & Collective Action Problem

  • Miller and Plouffe discuss why CEOs don’t push back harder against Trump:
    • Plouffe: “Anyone who has a voice here should use it... The challenge for people wanting to use their voice... is it's not one of these situations where you say, well, I understand what he's trying to do here, but, like, this is just absolutely crazy.” (13:01)

3. Autocracy, Immigration, and the Minnesota Crisis

• Democratic Weakness on Immigration Messaging

  • Plouffe observes that Democrats have lost a confident, nuanced message:
    • “No Democrat sounds like [Obama did on immigration] right now, basically... Can we not combine that set of policies…with righteous anger about what ICE is doing internally and saying… You cannot kill women. Right. Like, it feels like you can do both, and maybe they need to do both.” — Miller (21:20)
  • Plouffe: “This is the way Democrats can finally get out of the hole on immigration and get on their front foot... I think a Democrat who says, let me tell you something, I believe in a secure border, we got that wrong under the Biden administration... but we're also now not going to terrorize our fellow citizens… There is an audience for that.” (24:45)

• ICE as an Economic and Values Issue

  • Tim suggests highlighting ICE’s (enormous) budget as a messaging tool.
  • Plouffe: “The American people see ICE all around the country wreaking havoc. They got plenty of money. So say Trump wants them to have more money. I don’t want them to have more money. In fact, I think they have too much money, but they certainly don’t need more money.” (25:53)

4. Democrats’ Stagnant Brand and Path Forward

• Summary of Plouffe’s New York Times Op-Ed: “Democrats Have to Run Against Their Party”

  • Plouffe: “We’re in deep trouble. And I think for the good of the country and the world, we need sustained control of the White House and Senate for most of the next decade... The ugly truth is it could get worse when Trump leaves the stage. The entire enterprise will be a battle to who can go even further, who can destroy norms even more, who can actually put a more palatable wrapper around Trump’s crazy.” (28:29)
  • “This isn’t like it’s a 4th and 1 and we can do the tush push... This is like 4th and 6th, 4th and 8... How do you improve your odds there?” (33:02)

• Winning Requires Critiquing One’s Own Party

  • Miller: “The last two successful politicians to remake their party’s image, both ran against the party: your guy in 08, and Trump actively against the party.”
  • Plouffe: “You have to envision a crowd listening to a candidate. I just think there’s no question that... to say, ‘I think the Democratic leadership has also not done all it can... I’d like to see new leaders emerge.’” (39:06)
  • Memorable Plouffe quote: “We gotta be willing to call shit out. And that doesn’t mean we’re weak. I get they don’t do it. We don’t have to be them.” (35:42)

5. Party Leadership and Candidate Differentiation

• Changing Nature of Political Leadership

  • Miller and Plouffe agree that the skills for party leaders have shifted radically due to social media and political environment.
  • Plouffe: “The requirements of a leader have changed quite dramatically over the last couple decades.” (42:45)

• Allowing/Encouraging Distance from the Party

  • Plouffe: “If you are running in a competitive district, what you care about is that person helping me. So I think the requirements of a leader have changed quite dramatically.” (42:44)

6. Kamala Harris’s 2024 Run, “Running Against Your Own Record,” and Contingency

• Harris’s Constraints and the Limits of Distancing from Biden

  • Miller: “Her [Harris’s] narrative is that she wasn’t given enough time and outside factors led to Trump winning.”
  • Plouffe: “The only realistic chance we had for a Democrat to win would be in ‘23, not ‘24... when [Harris joined] the race... less than 30% in swing states knew she’d been a prosecutor.” (44:29)
  • On her inability to break from Biden: “Day of the first debate... she had to talk to Joe Biden to make sure even [the phrase] ‘new generation of leadership’ was okay. So that’s kind of what we were dealing with.” (47:44)
  • “[Distancing] would have been well advised. But whose fault was it that she didn’t do that? It was Biden’s fault, right?” — Miller
  • Plouffe: “The reality was, I don’t think the separation that would have been required to make a difference... was going to happen because it wasn’t reality based.” (46:34)

• Challenges with Outreach to Young/Working-Class Voters vs. Moderate Suburbanites

  • Plouffe: “You have no savings. And cost of living is punishing to everybody, but it’s particularly punishing to young people... young people would say, listen, I’m in debt... If I’m 25 or 26, I lived through Trump. It was better then—super challenging.” (51:22)
  • On balancing left-leaning economic appeals and moderate outreach: “The concern about Trump’s return was not what you or I would like it to be with voters... Yeah, I don’t really believe he’s going to do all the things he’s going to do. And the economy sucks. And he was okay on the economy, if you were to like to summarize it.” (51:58)

7. Tech, AI, and Democratic Strategy

• Split Views on Engagement with Big Tech/AI
  • Miller: “Should Dems do full populist war on the tech elites and the AI billionaires...or try to bring them into the tent?”
  • Plouffe: “AI is here to stay... But at the end of the day, I think there’s a sense from voters that wait, basically the Trump administration and like, five tech leaders are telling us we just have to swallow this. ...People want to know, like, what the fuck is happening? How are we preparing for this?... I think you can be deeply critical where you think you should be critical, where there should be more oversight. You should be deeply cooperative where you think that tech and government can work together, you know, to help solve problems and mitigate problems.” (54:37)

8. Male Fragility, Political Thin Skin & The Future of Democratic Candidates

• Rise of Thin-Skinned, Authoritarian Men
  • Plouffe: “One of the things that unifies...the political and entertainment and even business figures supporting MAGA is they don’t want rules, they don’t want criticism… a lot of it is because they’re so thin-skinned.” (59:09)
  • Miller riffs: “I’m obsessed with male fragility. What’s up with these fucking fragile rich dudes? ...Where’s Clint Eastwood? Where's John Wayne?” (60:18)

9. Hope for 2028: What Kind of Candidate Do Dems Need?

• Plouffe Forecasts a Volatile, Open 2028 Primary
  • “This is an audition. It’s a bunch of Off-Broadway plays, essentially auditioning to be the one that makes it to Broadway... I think somebody who's just willing to tear up the playbook and let it rip and burn all the houses down is going to be really successful... the person who is the most change, and not just from Trump, that’s important. People aren’t going to look for a replica to Trump, but a remedy. But who's also the most changed in the status quo? Back to our previous discussion about successful two-term presidents will win. And also the most exciting candidates tend to win.” (60:52)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You’d always like to laugh at this stuff, but, you know, this is an incredibly serious moment. So first of all, here’s a guy whose popularity rating has really plummeted ... I think Democrats should make him pay a price for this.” — David Plouffe (03:29)
• “There should be no daylight between Trump and these House Republicans and Senate Republicans. They are as responsible for everything that's happening as he is.” — David Plouffe (07:31)
• “I'd like to see European leaders begin to paint a picture of if Trump doesn't stop this, this is where this is headed... American soldiers are going to go to war with their allies. So I think you need to paint the picture of what could actually happen here in a very aggressive way.” — David Plouffe (12:10)
• “No Democrat sounds like that [Obama clip on immigration] right now, basically… Can we not combine that set of policies with righteous anger about what ICE is doing?” — Tim Miller (21:20)
• “We’re in deep trouble. And I think for the good of the country and the world, we need sustained control of the White House and Senate for most of the next decade.” — David Plouffe (28:29)
• “We gotta be willing to call shit out. And that doesn’t mean we’re weak. I get they don’t do it. We don’t have to be them.” — David Plouffe (35:42)
• “I just think there’s no question… to say, ‘I think the Democratic leadership has also not done all it can...I’d like to see new leaders emerge.’ By the way, Nancy Pelosi would be the first person always to tell candidates, you do whatever you need to do to win.” — David Plouffe (39:06)
• “The requirements for a leader have changed quite dramatically over the last couple decades.” — David Plouffe (42:45)
• “The only realistic chance we had for a Democrat to win would be in 23, not 24…if Joe Biden said he wasn’t going to run and we would have an open primary…” — David Plouffe (44:29)
• “You have no savings. And cost of living is punishing to everybody, but it’s particularly punishing to young people.” — David Plouffe (51:22)
• “AI is here to stay… But at the end of the day, I think there’s a sense from voters that wait, basically the Trump administration and like, five tech leaders are telling us we just have to swallow this.” — David Plouffe (54:37)
• “You can't be a truth teller these days without thick skin. Because if anybody who lifts their voice on anything...gets crucified for it. So you’ve got to have the thick skin. And I think we're gonna have a big field…” — David Plouffe (60:52)

Timestamps for Notable Segments

• Trump’s Greenland/NATO/foreign provocations: 02:26–05:25
• Danger of GOP enablers & collective action: 06:13–13:01
• Minnesota, immigration, ICE: 17:01–26:13
• Plouffe’s “run against the party” thesis: 28:29–36:26
• Party leadership, branding, adapting to new era: 39:06–42:44
• Kamala Harris’s 2024 constraints: 43:28–47:44
• Voter coalition and economic messaging: 50:41–53:28
• Tech/AI and party strategy: 54:37–59:09
• Male fragility & candidate qualities for 2028: 59:09–62:42

Takeaways for Listeners

• Plouffe argues Democrats must seize the current opening as the GOP is defined by an unpopular, extreme brand—but only if they themselves are seen as representing real, compelling change.
• To win tough states and build a durable majority, Dems should run against their own establishment and be honest about the party’s failures—on policy, messaging, and leadership.
• The party must rediscover how to combine secure border rhetoric with passionate advocacy for humane treatment of immigrants, and tie the pain caused by Trumpist chaos and ICE aggression directly to everyday economic concerns.
• The next Democratic leader must be bold, unafraid of confronting both the opposition and their own party, and exciting enough to galvanize the coalition.
• The race for 2028 is wide open—and it may take an anti-establishment firebrand (with thick skin) to break the logjam.

For anyone who hasn’t listened, this episode provides a thorough, clear-eyed, and sometimes sharply funny strategic analysis of how the Democratic Party can escape near-term crisis—and why “playing it safe” might be the riskiest move of all.