The Bulwark Podcast: Galen Druke on Americans’ Stance on Trump’s Deportations

Episode Overview In this episode of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller engages in a comprehensive discussion with Galen Druke, host of the GD Politics podcast and author of a recent New York Times piece. The conversation delves into the unpopularity of major Democratic legislation, the pivotal role of Senator Lisa Murkowski in recent bill negotiations, and strategic considerations for the Democratic Party's future electoral successes, particularly in the Senate and the 2028 presidential race.

1. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act: A Senate Pass with Unpopularity

Tim Miller kicks off the discussion by highlighting the recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act, praising Senator Chuck Schumer for his strategic maneuvering in the Senate. However, Galen Druke provides a critical analysis of the bill’s reception among Americans.

Galen Druke ([02:53]):
"This looks to be the least popular major legislation passed since at least 1990. Less popular things have been considered, like repealing the Affordable Care Act in 2017."

Druke references Chris Warshaw’s analysis from George Washington University, noting that the OBBB Act is highly unpopular, scoring about 25 percentage points underwater across four recent polls. The primary reasons for its unpopularity include:

• Healthcare Concerns: Americans are increasingly worried about healthcare, and the bill’s provisions are seen as detrimental.
• Deficit Impact: The bill contributes to the deficit, a traditionally Republican stronghold issue, yet it fails to resonate positively.
• Economic Disparities: According to the Yale Budget Lab, the bottom 20% of Americans would face a $700 annual decrease, while the top 20% would see increases of up to $6,000. Notably, individuals in the top 0.1% (earning over $3 million annually) could see over $100,000 more per year.

Tim Miller ([05:22]):
"I guess my follow up is I've done a little Googling while you're talking and it feels like Social Security privatization was significantly more popular actually than this bill."

Druke counters by explaining that Social Security privatization wasn’t actualized, thus wasn't part of the unpopular legislation. He emphasizes that the OBBB Act's provisions on Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act subsidies are core reasons for its negative reception, expecting ongoing media scrutiny and public discontent as the law unfolds.

2. Lisa Murkowski: The Reluctant Decider

The conversation shifts to Senator Lisa Murkowski and her critical vote on the OBBB Act.

Tim Miller ([08:11]):
"So, what your theory of the case on why they did this? Like, they really didn't have to do this. They could have done a two separate bills..."

Galen Druke ([08:24]):
"Well, the parties do have a problem with overinterpreting their mandates, if you'll remember..."

Druke explains that the Republican Party is internally divided between conservative populists and budget hawks, making unified legislative action challenging. As a result, the OBBB Act became a compromised bill attempting to satisfy both factions but ultimately failing to resonate with the broader electorate.

Tim Miller ([14:01]):
"She ends up being like the vote that is needed here to get to 50... she ends up supporting it extremely reluctantly."

Druke elaborates on his interview with Murkowski, highlighting her tough position as a swing vote. Murkowski secured concessions for Alaska, particularly regarding energy resource production, which she values. Nevertheless, she publicly criticizes the bill's overall impact, acknowledging its potential harm to Alaskans despite her decisive vote.

Galen Druke ([17:14]):
"Ultimately, I think she felt that she got what she wanted for Alaska, but then she comes out and says, I don't think this is a big good bill for America."

This nuanced stance illustrates Murkowski’s commitment to her state while expressing reservations about the national implications, reflecting the complexities faced by moderate Republicans in a polarized political landscape.

3. Democratic Strategies for Future Electoral Success

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the Democratic Party's need for strategic candidates to secure future majorities, particularly in the Senate and the 2028 presidential race.

Tim Miller ([25:32]):
"When you have a competitive election for folks in deep red or deep blue seats, you can tune this out. You want to run to the extremes, if that's what floats your boat."

Druke underscores the importance of developing a Democratic counterpart to Trump—someone charismatic and able to appeal to both the party base and moderate voters without adhering strictly to partisan norms.

Galen Druke ([27:29]):
"Ambitious Democrats should consider trying to break with an unpopular Democratic Party by running against it. Sort of showing I'm going to be a different type of Democrat."

He draws parallels to past Democratic figures like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who managed to distinguish themselves from the party establishment and appeal to a broader electorate through charismatic leadership and policy versatility.

4. Immigration Policy and Shifting Public Opinion

The conversation delves into immigration, a contentious and evolving issue in American politics.

Galen Druke ([34:51]):
"Americans care a lot more about immigration, and it's also... the two parties have become highly distinguished on that issue."

Druke highlights the Quinnipiac poll showing a 10 percentage point increase in Americans favoring a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants since Trump’s actions on deportations. He notes that while Trump's aggressive deportation policies were intended to satisfy his base, they have inadvertently shifted public opinion against him.

Tim Miller ([45:05]):
"Shout out to Jersey Jerry's girlfriend not giving out blow jobs until he switches on immigration, I guess..."

This anecdote underscores the complex and often personal motivations behind public figures' stances on immigration, reflecting broader societal debates.

Galen Druke ([50:18]):
"Views on the border itself hasn't changed... fewer of those people have criminal records. So even if you take the promises that he made, which is worst, first deport, you know, people with a criminal record, he is not doing it as effectively as some past Democrats have done."

Druke critiques Trump's immigration enforcement, pointing out inefficiencies and mismatches between his promises and actual outcomes, which have contributed to his declining popularity on the issue.

5. Drafting the 2028 Democratic Nominee: Challenges and Considerations

The latter part of the episode focuses on Galen Druke’s draft of potential Democratic nominees for the 2028 presidential race, co-created with Nate Silver.

Tim Miller ([55:30]):
"Aoc, Kamala Harris, Pete Ruben Gallego and Jared Polis were your first. Were your candidates."

Druke reflects on the selection process, acknowledging that while some picks like AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) reflect popularity and charisma, they may face challenges in general elections due to perceived alignment with party extremes.

Galen Druke ([56:19]):
"I've got to have some flexibility. I have to have some appreciation that not all states are equal in terms of."

He emphasizes the need for Democrats to choose candidates who can navigate both policy and persona effectively, striking a balance between appealing to base supporters and attracting moderate or independent voters in swing states.

Tim Miller ([63:38]):
"What's Zoran? Zoran is really the closest right now to the Obama emerging figure."

Druke discusses emerging figures like Zoran Mamdani, suggesting that new, charismatic leaders who can distance themselves from entrenched party dynamics may be key to future Democratic successes.

6. Conclusion: Navigating a Polarized Political Landscape

As the episode nears its end, both hosts reflect on the complexities of current political strategies and the necessity for the Democratic Party to innovate in candidate selection and policy emphasis to overcome unpopularity and secure future electoral victories.

Tim Miller ([64:03]):
"We have a lot of stuff to do, but I think somebody who has the ability to emerge and say to people, guys, like, I'm going a totally different direction for all this."

Galen Druke ([63:54]):
"I'll see you all then. Peace."

The episode concludes with a forward-looking perspective, recognizing the challenges ahead but underscoring the importance of adaptability and strategic planning for the Democratic Party in an era of intense political division.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Galen Druke ([02:53]):
  "This looks to be the least popular major legislation passed since at least 1990."

• Galen Druke ([05:22]):
  "If you want to make an argument against the billionaires, against the oligarchy or whatever, and you're a Democrat, you were just handed a gift."

• Galen Druke ([14:01]):
  "Ultimately, I think she felt that she got what she wanted for Alaska, but then she comes out and says, I don't think this is a big good bill for America."

• Tim Miller ([44:03]):
  "She ends up supporting it extremely reluctantly."

• Galen Druke ([55:30]):
  "I think it's probably the mold that I mentioned. So what is Americans biggest concern today? It's still the economy and the cost of living."

Final Thoughts This episode provides a deep dive into the intersection of policy, public opinion, and electoral strategy within the current American political framework. Galen Druke offers insightful analysis on why certain Democratic initiatives are failing to gain popular support, the intricate dynamics of bipartisan legislation, and the critical need for adaptive strategies in candidate selection to navigate an increasingly polarized electorate.

Listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the challenges facing the Democratic Party and the potential pathways forward to reclaiming legislative majorities and presidential victories in the coming years.