Podcast Summary: "Heidi Heitkamp: How Trump’s Trade Chaos Hurt Farmers"
The Bulwark Podcast | Host: Tim Miller | Guest: Heidi Heitkamp
Date: October 30, 2025
Episode focused on the current challenges facing rural America, the economic effects of Trump-era trade policies, and strategies for Democrats to reconnect with rural voters.
Main Theme & Purpose
This episode centers on the realities of rural America’s economy, the impact of Trump’s trade policies on farmers and ranchers, and broader challenges in rural communities. Former Senator Heidi Heitkamp (ND), chair of the One Country Project, joins Tim Miller to deliver an insider’s view of current agricultural and political struggles, including candid thoughts on the Democratic Party’s approach to rural voters.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Rural Economic Strain and Farm Consolidation
[02:36 – 06:45]
- Heitkamp outlines how farm bankruptcies and stress among farm bankers are rising, with rural America bracing for potential financial crisis.
- Large producers are weathering the storm, but smaller farmers face greater risk, likely fueling further consolidation.
- “There’s a lot of venture capital that is out there that is swarming around farmland as an investment. And that is going to be a trend that’s going to be very injurious … to rural Americans, certainly production agriculture.” (Heitkamp, 03:44)
- The local rural economy is suffering as farm operations become more isolated from small-town businesses (e.g., buying fuel and groceries in bulk rather than local).
- Rural health care is a significant employer but remains threatened by lack of economies of scale and insufficient reimbursements.
2. Trump’s Trade Policies and the Impact on Soybeans & Cattle
[07:36 – 15:53]
- Cattle Ranchers & Beef Prices:
- Ranchers are angry about Trump’s move to expand beef imports from Argentina, which, while aimed at lowering consumer prices, devastated the cattle futures market and financially strained domestic ranchers.
- Consolidation in meatpacking and feedlot operations means ranchers claim a shrinking share of every pound of beef sold.
- “Their share of that pound of hamburger, minuscule compared to what the processors … get rewarded for.” (Heitkamp, 07:39)
- Soybean Trade War:
- Trump’s China trade war blocked US soybean sales, then used a convoluted deal (offering high-tech chips in exchange for China buying fewer soybeans) to “fix” the problem. Heitkamp and Miller slam the deal as “a horrible deal” where “the Chinese played Trump like a fiddle” (Heitkamp, 13:13).
- The US gave up leverage (export controls on advanced Nvidia AI chips) for things China was already voluntarily doing.
- “So we’re doing some socialism. We’re sending them the chips. In exchange, we get one year of these minerals. For one year they’re going to sell us these minerals… That was the deal that he cut.” (Miller, 15:24)
3. Rural Policy, SNAP Benefits, and the Shutdown Stalemate
[16:44 – 22:35]
- SNAP Benefits: Trump administration is accused of weaponizing food assistance by removing critical language about benefits’ continuity during a shutdown.
- “The Trump administration and the Republicans supporting him are using food as a political weapon. This is a choice. They chose to delete this language.” (Mallory McMorrow, as quoted by Miller, 17:11)
- Heitkamp sees this as a legal and moral pressure tactic to extract unrelated policy wins.
- Congressional Deadlock: Heitkamp argues that a solution won’t come from leadership but dissenters willing to negotiate compromises. She claims “the orange guy” (Trump) holds all power, and rank-and-file members must step up.
4. Democrats and the Rural Vote
[24:30 – 33:40]
- Democrats have alienated rural voters by shifting focus from economic to identity politics, failing to recognize rural economic insecurity and local needs.
- “Democrats approach rural America like missionaries and not friends. … No one votes against their interest. You just don’t understand what their interest is.” (Heitkamp, 26:38)
- Suggests Democrats need a populist, economically focused message—not just “America First”-style slogans, but concrete plans on rural issues like credit card debt and working-class insecurity.
- The importance of authenticity and risk: Heitkamp suggests recruiting nontraditional candidates and taking chances, not repeating failed “safe” choices.
5. The Insularity of Democratic Party Leadership
[34:31 – 36:47]
- Critiques Chuck Schumer and Senate leadership for “putting their fingers on the scale” in primaries, arguing the party craves authenticity and new ideas.
- “If money bought you an election these days, I’d still be a United States senator and Kamala Harris would be president … Money has become less significant.” (Heitkamp, 35:56)
6. Independent Candidates and Red America Models
[37:06 – 39:14]
- Running as an “independent” may work, but only with genuine independence, not just rebranding.
- Shout-out to Rob Sand (Iowa) as a good example of authentic political positioning.
7. Lessons from Past & Present: Tackling Project 25 and Policy Branding
[37:46 – 41:39]
- Narrative matters: Heitkamp used real congressional budgets to argue against blanket anti-Obama attacks in her 2012 campaign—suggests similar savvy is needed now with Project 25 and Trump’s rural policies.
8. Republican Leadership and Senate Dynamics
[41:54 – 44:24]
- Discussion on John Thune’s spine as Senate leader versus Speaker Johnson.
- Heitkamp gives Thune a mixed grade, noting he resisted Trump’s push for recess appointments but is fundamentally a compromiser, not a leader.
9. Addressing Immigration and Nativist Rhetoric
[45:03 – 50:18]
- Miller plays a clip of JD Vance spreading xenophobic tropes about immigrants “eating cats and dogs.”
- Heitkamp urges taking the economic long view and recognizes US dynamism comes from welcoming new populations. She dismisses alarmism as “cringy,” comparing it to Trump’s “focus group” style.
- “My theory is in 20 years, the single most important commodity will be people.” (Heitkamp, 48:36)
10. Closing: Democrats and Message Discipline
[52:09 – 53:12]
- Heitkamp says there’s a silent Democratic constituency in rural America needing leadership to emerge from hiding.
- “If they don’t show up, all the people who are sitting on the sidelines and there are people, 20, 30% who are not with this president, but they are cowed because there is so much social pressure to not step out.” (Heitkamp, 52:27)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “I think Trump knew that there was huge challenges with critical minerals … what’s rare is the processing, the unwillingness of America to suffer the challenges of mining and processing in our country.” (Heitkamp, 13:13)
- “When they say, ‘Oh, Trump hasn’t hurt the economy,’ I say, ‘Good, then you don’t need that $40 billion’ he’s talking about sending to rural America. … It gets really quiet, Tim.” (Heitkamp, 04:40)
- “Democrats approach rural America like missionaries and not friends.” (Heitkamp, 26:38)
- “If money bought you an election these days, I’d still be a United States senator and Kamala Harris would be president ... Money has become less significant.” (Heitkamp, 35:56)
- “The single most important commodity [in 20 years] will be people.” (Heitkamp, 48:36)
- “Donald Trump is a Phoenix. He just rises from the ashes because the things Democrats want to attack him on, people don’t give a shit about.” (Heitkamp, 40:28)
- “Let’s shake it up.” (Heitkamp, 39:34)
Key Timestamps for Important Segments
- 02:36—Rural economic challenges and farmland consolidation
- 07:36—Cattle ranchers, beef prices, and trade policy explained
- 12:00—Trump, China, and the “art of the [soybean] deal”
- 16:44—SNAP benefits and food security in the shutdown fight
- 24:30—Democrats and the rural vote/populist message
- 34:31—Senate leadership, authenticity, and campaign models
- 45:03—Immigration rhetoric and economic realities
- 52:09—Democrats’ silent rural base and the need to “show up”
Tone and Language
- Candid, earthy, and occasionally irreverent.
- Mix of policy wonkery, personal anecdote, and political advice.
- Both Miller and Heitkamp are unafraid to criticize their own side.
For listeners seeking to understand the lived realities of rural America, the pitfalls of Trump’s trade policies, and pragmatic strategies for Democrats in red areas, this episode offers sharp insights and actionable takeaways.