The Bulwark Podcast | March 24, 2026

"Jeffrey Goldberg and Joe Weisenthal: Pandora's Box Has Been Opened"

Overview

Host Tim Miller sits down with Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg for a deep-dive into current U.S. politics, the state of the Pentagon under Pete Hegseth, the Iran war, and the trajectory of liberal democracy. The second segment features Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg and the "Odd Lots" podcast, breaking down the economic impacts of the Iran war: oil shock, safe havens, US dollar hegemony, and geopolitical ripple effects. The episode centers on the unraveling effects of the current administration's choices at home and abroad, and the complex, intertwined crises facing liberal democracies.

Segment 1: Jeffrey Goldberg on American Politics, Pentagon Turmoil, and Israel's Future

Miller’s Political Identity and the State of Both Parties

• [02:27–05:07] Miller, grilled by Goldberg, clarifies he’s now a “small-L liberal,” functionally a Democrat but not entirely at home in the party and unwilling to return to the GOP unless it fundamentally reforms.
  • "I am a podcaster now. I'm a content creator." — Tim Miller [03:18]
  • On party realignments: “I think more likely is the Republicans will start looking more like foreign conservative parties around the world, which are blood and soil nationalist parties.” — Miller [04:49]

SignalGate: Pentagon Security Breaches and Accountability

• [06:13–13:03] Discussion of Pete Hegseth’s controversial use of Signal to share sensitive military information, and the refusal of officials to admit wrongdoing.
  • Goldberg asserts: "If anyone else... had done what he did, they would have had to pay a price for it." [06:32]
  • On problematic standards: “When you're the defense Secretary, they let you grab them by the, you know, classified information. It's not illegal because he has declassification authority.... But the deeper problem is you have to hire people with judgment, discretionary and smarts in order to be the... declassifier.” — Goldberg [08:31]
  • Miller lampoons evasions: “It was not classified for me to send you the exact timing and coordinates of a bombing campaign.” [07:53]

Hegseth’s Pentagon: Press Lockouts and Public Performance

• [12:04–14:47] Hegseth’s combative posture with the press and showmanship is depicted as a new and dangerous phenomenon.
  • “He was performing in the chat for JD Vance and then the others presumably.” — Goldberg [13:13]
  • Miller: “It’s an unusual type performance. That's not what you usually would see in a free country.” [12:24]

Military Leadership, Education, and Cultural Dissonance

• [14:47–18:27]
  • Goldberg laments Hegseth’s denigration of military education, emphasizing that even legendary “warrior” generals valued intellectual rigor:
    • “General Patton believed... no military officer could be competent unless he understood the dynamics of The Peloponnesian War.... He thought that constant education was... a requirement for effective military leadership.” [16:43]
  • Playful banter about reading lists and World War I vs. World War II in gay literature.

On Working with the Pentagon and the Role of the Press

• [19:07–21:56]
  • Goldberg assures that barring the press from the Pentagon won't stop critical, informed reporting.
  • Passionately defends the "patriotic press corps," warning against Hegseth’s narrative that journalists are “enemies of the state.”
    • “It just annoys me to no end that... they are cast as enemies of the people, enemies of the state, enemies of the idea that America deserves security and that the military is the means through which we preserve our national security and therefore preserve our ability to be a constitutional democracy.” — Goldberg [19:15]

Evaluating the Iran War: Tactical Wins, Strategic Failings

• [22:11–26:45]
  • Miller asks for grades: tactical execution is excellent (“A or A+”); strategically, “you can't grade it because they didn't hand in the homework.” — Goldberg [22:29]
  • CENTCOM operationally effective, but US action lacks endgame or clear objectives.
  • Miller’s analogy: “You take my nine year old nephew, you give him a bat... he goes in there and breaks everything. And then it's like, great, now what though?” [25:45]
  • Goldberg concedes: “It is hard and dangerous work.... But it's pointless work if there is no point. If there is no strategy... what are you doing?” [26:31]

The China/Taiwan Implications

• [27:09–29:42]
  • Goldberg: “A war of choice is becoming a war of necessity... the Chinese are watching a third tier power, Iran... screw with the United States in a narrow waterway. Now, what are the Chinese looking at... a narrow waterway between Taiwan and China.” [28:22]
  • Warns US credibility in defending Taiwan could be eroded by protracted, mismanaged Iran war: “Pandora's box of challenges that were not there when we simply were monitoring the situation as it were.” [29:39]

Liberal Zionism’s Dilemma: Israel, Illiberalism, and America’s Jews

• [32:27–40:37]
  • Miller highlights Goldberg’s past warnings (2013) of the risk that American Jews would not support a theocratic, illiberal Israel.
  • Goldberg elaborates: He’s warned since the late ‘90s about two threats — “the rise of terrorist Muslim fundamentalism” and “the growing illiberalism on the Israeli right.” [33:37]
  • On current Israel: “I don't know if Israel will be the Israel of my youth ever again. Meaning... liberal minded democracy that is trying to come to some kind of equitable solution to the fundamental dilemma.” [34:52]
  • Explains the growing chasm: “The lived experience of American Jews tends to make the majority of them liberal minded in outlook. The lived experience of Israelis, especially today, makes them more Middle Eastern. Right. Israel is becoming a more Middle Eastern country... pure power politics.” [37:46]
  • His “tragic kind of realism”: without global or regional change, Israel is sliding toward the illiberal norm.
  • Miller draws the episode full circle: “We started where we ended, where you were assessing the Israeli right the same way that I was assessing the American right... good global trend towards more blood and soil nationalism everywhere.” [40:37]

Notable Quotes and Moments

• “To be the declassifier is an awesome responsibility.” — Goldberg [08:31]
• “You don't have to play defense secretary. You do have this power. We all recognize that... showing off for J.D. Vance.” — Goldberg [14:14]
• “It's pointless work if there is no point, if there is no strategy.” — Goldberg [26:31]

Segment 2: Joe Weisenthal on the Iran War’s Economic Fallout

Macro Perspective: Oil Shock and Government Response

• [43:54–47:41]
  • “The market is tied so closely to the war strategy that it’s kind of crazy.” — Miller [44:53]
  • Weisenthal: The administration “simply has not taken [inflation] seriously, even slightly, and... aggravated the situation.”
  • Even as oil prices hit ~$100/barrel, the “implied price” paid by consumers is even higher due to refinery slowdowns and logistical disruptions. [46:36]
  • “[They’re] undercutting one of the one good things that it had going forward economically.” — Weisenthal [47:41]

Limits of the Administration’s Tools; Market Disbelief

• [48:23–50:24]
  • “There is nothing that can physically be done by this administration to really ameliorate the price of oil that can really counteract the... closure of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no tool in the toolkit.” — Weisenthal [48:23]
  • “If the market really took seriously that we are at a state of war... the price... would be much higher than they are today.” [49:06]
  • Jawboning/PR manages expectations but cannot change fundamentals; market still believes Trump may “wriggle” out of this, hence underpricing the risks.

Structural Damage to Global Trade & Stockpiling

• [53:35–56:10]
  • Damage is both immediate and systemic; “each time that happens, it's like you're moving the floor up, you're creating a higher bid under commodities, because every country... cannot depend on these commodities” — Weisenthal [55:29]
  • The world has learned to hoard and stockpile since COVID-19, compounding supply chain fragility and raising the “floor” for essential goods pricing.

Safe Haven Investments & US Dollar Hegemony

• [57:42–63:49]
  • Classic safe havens (gold, treasuries) not all behaving as expected:
    • Gold is sold to cover losses elsewhere: “Suddenly gold goes from being a thing that's doing very well to a thing that's doing very badly.” — Weisenthal [58:18]
    • The US dollar is the only safe haven currently “working” due to its liquidity: “When you panic... you want the most liquid thing in the world and you pay your dollars.” [59:23]
  • Long-term threats to the dollar: “I do think... there are probably reasons to think that the dollar won't be the only game in town...” — Weisenthal [63:49]
  • China’s productive capacity, stability, and network effects mean the yuan may accrue “safe haven” status over time.

Geopolitical Winners and Losers; Consequences for Gulf States and Russia

• [65:20–69:49]
  • Paradox: Oil-rich Gulf states face economic catastrophe despite surging prices, as blockages prevent large-scale exports; Russia—unconstrained—profits.
  • Gulf sovereign wealth funds' pullback could create major secondary economic shocks: “It’s hard to overstate the influence that they’ve built up” in global markets. [68:02]
  • On Dubai: “We don't know the full extent of the damage... they're trying to control the flow of information that's coming out.” — Weisenthal [69:13]

Niche Commodities and Global Vulnerabilities

• [70:09–72:47]
  • Fertilizer (urea) and helium shortages threaten agriculture (food inflation) and advanced industry (semiconductors).
  • “The global economy is sort of a finely tuned machine, but you start knocking it around and suddenly you have huge gluts appear here and huge shortages appear here and certain industrial processes just don't happen..." — Weisenthal [71:47]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:27: Miller and Goldberg on Tim's political alignment
• 06:13: Discussion of SignalGate and Pentagon leaks
• 12:04: Hegseth’s combative approach and Pentagon press ban
• 14:47: Physical/moral education’s role in military leadership
• 19:07: The Pentagon press lockout and the patriotic press corps
• 22:11: Tactical vs. strategic success in the Iran war
• 27:09: Strategic implications for China and Taiwan
• 32:27: Israel’s illiberal drift & liberal Jewish identity
• 43:54: Joe Weisenthal joins—macro view on oil prices and war strategy
• 48:23: Policy limits and market disbelief
• 53:35: Long-term economic damage and stockpiling
• 57:42: Safe haven assets & US dollar status
• 65:36: Geopolitical winners/losers, Gulf and Russia
• 70:09: Fertilizer, helium, and the fragility of global supply chains

Tone & Notable Quotes

• The tone is wry, irreverent, but deeply informed—a mix of gallows humor, exasperation, and intellectual seriousness.
• Miller’s quips and Goldberg’s sardonic asides drive home the surreal nature of current politics and global affairs.
  • “You don't have to play defense secretary... you do have this power. We all recognize that... showing off for J.D. Vance.” [14:14]
  • “We started where we ended, where you were assessing the Israeli right the same way that I was assessing the American right.... good global trend towards more blood and soil nationalism everywhere.” — Miller [40:37]
  • “There is nothing... that can really counteract the... closure of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no tool in the toolkit.” — Weisenthal [48:23]
  • “When you panic... you want the most liquid thing in the world and you pay your dollars.” — Weisenthal [59:23]

Summary

Part history lesson, part darkly comic lament, part sharp policy analysis: This must-listen episode diagnoses the weakening fabric of liberal democracy and global trade, exposes the showmanship and risk-laden incompetence within national security, and lays bare the structural economic fragilities exacerbated by the Iran war. Goldberg and Miller scrutinize culture and strategy alike, while Weisenthal provides a sobering primer on why today’s commodity shocks and dollar anxieties portend a tougher, more fractured global order.

For in-depth policy thinkers, those worried about democracy’s future, or anyone seeking clarity on the Iran war’s hidden costs—this episode breaks it all down and pulls no punches.