Jonathan Lemire: A Bubble-Wrapped Trump

Summary

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The Bulwark Podcast

Episode: Jonathan Lemire: A Bubble-Wrapped Trump

Date: December 3, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Jonathan Lemire (Atlantic, co-host of Morning Joe, longtime White House reporter)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on Jonathan Lemire’s recent Atlantic article about Donald Trump’s increasingly insulated (“bubble-wrapped”) presidency in his second term. Tim Miller and Lemire discuss how Trump has walled himself off from traditional forms of political engagement, in contrast to his prior style, and how this impacts his decision-making, relationship with the public, and even the press. The conversation explores the implications for American politics and the Republican party, with sidebars into foreign policy and recent special elections.

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Main Discussion & Key Insights

1. The "Bubble-Wrapped President": How Trump Has Changed ([03:44] – [12:00])

• Core concept: Trump, like many second-term presidents, is becoming isolated from the public, but the effect is uniquely severe due to his personality, history, and recent decisions.

• Rallies Stopped: Trump was once known for frequent rallies, which functioned as both political barometers and therapy for him. Since his reelection, rallies have stopped almost entirely.

  • Quote: “He used those rallies as, like, testing grounds… he’d give a line, he’d see what kind of response it got… he stopped doing that and people around him are afraid he’s now flying blind.” – Jonathan Lemire [04:38]

• Why stop rallies?

  • Security concerns after the Butler County assassination attempt.
  • Increased Secret Service restrictions.
  • Fatigue; the job is “exhausting”.
  • Personal preference for staying in the White House and socializing with billionaires/business leaders over interacting with regular supporters.

• Foreign Focus:

  • Trump has substituted domestic engagement for international trips and dealmaking, reportedly chasing a Nobel Peace Prize.
  • Even MAGA stalwarts like Steve Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Greene have criticized his lack of home focus, highlighting a contradiction with “America First”.
  • Quote: “Your focus should be here at home. That’s what you promised during the campaign last year… Don’t forget here at home.” – Jonathan Lemire [08:03]

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2. Changes in Trump’s Circle: New Gatekeepers and Their Influence ([09:41] – [11:26])

• Rich and Powerful Now Dominate Trump's Ear: The mix of people now influencing Trump has shifted from traditional GOP establishment figures (some who would “say no”) to “new class of kind of establishment suck-ups.”
  • Quote: “The one thing that impresses him is wealth. And he loves the idea that these rich, powerful people are coming to him to kiss the ring.” – Jonathan Lemire [09:57]
• No More Internal Resistance: The White House now fills with “true believers” and sycophants; dissenting voices are gone by design.
• Media/Information Diet:
  • Fox News remains, but OAN, Newsmax, and especially Truth Social serve as more insular echo chambers.
  • In the first term, Trump at least encountered critics on Twitter—now less so.
  • Quote: “He’s existing [on] Truth Social Media, which is a site he owns, it’s completely sycophants, it’s all his acolytes.” – Jonathan Lemire [11:10]

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3. The Press Bubble: Less Scrutiny, Tamer Pools ([14:19] – [15:56])

• White House Now Handpicks Press Pool: AP was kicked out; White House Correspondent Association overruled. Trump’s staff picks friendlier outlets/voices for the pool that gets access daily.
• Fewer Formal Press Conferences: Questions now generally come only from the handpicked pool—less rigor, less unpredictability.
  • Quote: “He’s facing friendly faces who are asking him less than tough questions. There are exceptions… But there are fewer and farther between than last time around.” – Jonathan Lemire [14:53]

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4. The "Sleepy" President? Age, Fatigue, and Schedule Control ([16:13] – [18:50])

• On-Camera Fatigue:

  • Trump has been caught dozing off in public, including recent televised cabinet meetings.
  • The New York Times reported later starts and earlier ends to his workday.
  • White House denies, but the visuals and evidence accumulate.
  • Quote: “Look how he’s tireless. He’s got the stamina of a much younger man. And then just days later, this happened… clearly dozing off, off and on during what was a marathon three hour Cabinet meeting. He’s pushing 80.” – Jonathan Lemire [18:14]

• Travel Limitation:

  • Trump now rarely travels domestically outside of trips to his golf clubs; the rigors of national travel appear too demanding.

• Effect on Policy: Bubble, fatigue, insulation = less engagement with both allies and adversaries, less willingness to address hot-button domestic issues like affordability.

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5. Isolation and Policy Blind Spots: The "Affordability" Example ([21:28] – [22:56])

• Denial of Affordability Crisis:
  • Trump recently dismissed voter concerns about affordability as “fake news” and a “hoax,” disregarding staff recommendations to acknowledge the crisis.
  • Quote: “He simply won’t acknowledge that Americans are feeling the pain right now.” – Jonathan Lemire [22:52]
  • Staff are unable or unwilling to confront him directly; policy is set on the fly.

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6. Cabinet Tensions: The Hegseth/Venezuelan Boat Strike Controversy ([23:00] – [24:36])

• Inconsistent Stories: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is under scrutiny over a controversial strike on Venezuelan boats.
  • Initially boasted authority: “he went on Fox and Friends and boasted that he was there, saw the whole thing… that’s a very different tone that we’ve heard in the last couple of days.” – Jonathan Lemire [23:20]
  • Now attempting to shift blame to subordinates as IG investigation looms.

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7. Foreign Policy: Ukraine DMZ & Europe’s Strategic Response ([26:21] – [29:07])

• Ukraine DMZ Talks: Stalled again, with the Trump administration relying on Russian talking points. Kyiv more diplomatic but noncompliant; uncertainty reigns.
  • Envoy activity heavily slanted toward Moscow, not Kyiv.
• Europe Moving On:
  • Germany permanently stations foreign troops for the first time since WWII, reflecting Europe’s loss of confidence in the US as a security guarantor under Trump.
  • Quote: “The lesson Europe has learned over this last year in particular is they can’t count on the United States anymore… They’re gonna have to step up their own spending, and that includes Germany.” – Jonathan Lemire [28:20]

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8. The Honduras Pardon—A Head-Spinning Move ([29:08] – [31:00])

• Trump pardons former Honduran President Juan Hernandez, who had led a vast drug cartel; this comes as the administration escalates anti-drug military ops elsewhere, raising charges of hypocrisy and corruption.
  • Crypto ties and Roger Stone connections are noted.
  • Quote: “It’s a head-spinning pardon and one… that I’m waiting to hear from, like, police unions and other law enforcement officials: hey, this guy flooded our streets with drugs. How is this making us any safer?” – Jonathan Lemire [30:44]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Bubble:
  “People around him are afraid he’s now flying blind.” – Jonathan Lemire [04:38]

• Mad for the Nobel:
  “He’s desperate for a Nobel Peace Prize. By the day, the number of conflicts he’s allegedly ended, his tally seems to go up...” – Jonathan Lemire [08:13]

• About White House gatekeepers:
  "The one thing that impresses him is wealth..." – Jonathan Lemire [09:57]

• On dodging the 'Affordability Crisis':
  “He simply won’t acknowledge that Americans are feeling the pain right now.” – Jonathan Lemire [22:52]

• On European Defense Realignment:
  “Europe has realized they can’t just rely on us to be their security guarantor…” – Jonathan Lemire [28:20]

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Bonus Segment: TN-7 Special Election Analysis ([32:49] – [42:40])

• Bulwark-only commentary: (no guest)
• Gist:
  • Republicans held the district, but Dems closed the gap by over 12 points since 2024.
  • Tim Miller discusses turnout, gerrymandering, campaign strategy, and implications for 2026 midterms.
  • Suburban gains for Democrats apparent; inner-city turnout still somewhat soft.
  • Suggests that "likely Republican" districts may, with current trends, flip in a wave year.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:44] Start of main interview, Lemire on "the bubble-wrapped president"
• [04:38] Lemire on Trump flying blind without rallies
• [08:03] Critics from MAGA world warn Trump to focus on America
• [09:57] The influence of wealthy donors and establishment “suck-ups”
• [11:10] Lemire on Trump’s information silo
• [14:19] How the White House handpicks the press pool
• [16:13] Discussion of Trump’s public fatigue/dozing
• [18:14] Lemire on Trump’s limited schedule, age, and image management
• [21:28] Trump’s dismissal of affordability concerns
• [23:20] Hegseth’s shifting excuses for Venezuela strike
• [26:21] Ukraine DMZ & Trump’s foreign policy direction
• [28:20] Europe’s post-Trump defense transformation
• [29:35] The controversial Honduras pardon
• [32:49] TN-7 special election breakdown and implications

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Tone & Style

The tone is conversational, candid, occasionally irreverent, with a blend of policy analysis, political gossip, and dark humor—all hallmarks of Bulwark Media’s right-of-center, Never Trump sensibility.

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Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode is essential listening for those interested in the latest on Trump’s peculiar and insular second term, his administration’s current fault lines, and why this bubble is unlike anything seen in recent presidencies. Jonathan Lemire brings revealing anecdotes and clear-eyed analysis, while Tim Miller’s commentary frames the political stakes for both parties moving forward.

Highly recommended segments: Lemire’s breakdown of press restrictions ([14:19]), the discussion on Trump’s fatigue and age ([16:13]), and the foreign policy/European response analysis ([26:21]).

Transcript

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[Jonathan Lemire]

That's.

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[Person struggling with budgeting]

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[Friend advising on budgeting]

Go to RocketMoney.com cancel or download the app from the Apple or Google Play stores.

[Tim Miller]

Hey guys, quick scheduling note on what's.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Been up with the podcast.

[Tim Miller]

So you got two podcasts yesterday. So in case you're one of those.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Who wakes up in the morning, does the Sunday morning commute, just goes to the most recent show show I taped Amanda Carpenter yesterday morning and then Olivia Nuzzi yesterday afternoon. So don't miss out on all caps. Amanda. Yesterday, that podcast was excellent.

[Tim Miller]

The Nutzi podcast. We had some mixed views on the Olivia Nutzi podcast. You'll be surprised to hear that. And I'm going to have some more extended thoughts on that over on the next level. But reason why we did that bonus podcast style. Understand folks views on it. But you know, when you have somebody that can personally testify to the horrific.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Way in which the current secretary of.

[Tim Miller]

Health and Human Services handles a crisis.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

And how he's hiding his drug use from his wife and a bunch of other stuff. I think that's some relevant information for us in this moment. So I'll have more on that over on the Next level, as I mentioned.

[Tim Miller]

So please go check that out.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Me, Sarah and JVL are taping that every week. It's where we get to let our.

[Tim Miller]

Hair down a little bit more on this show. It's a little tight because I'm flying to D.C. i'm going to be doing.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

The next level in person in D.C. and so I had a short window this morning and we had a little guest shuffle. And so I appreciate Jonathan Lemire jumping on with me in between his Morning Joe segments.

[Tim Miller]

That dude works. All right. Well, you were in bed. Jonathan Lemire was on tv, leaving tv, doing this podcast, going back to tv. He's not a coal miner or anything, but you got to respect the grind. And so we had a little bit.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Of abbreviated pod with Lemire. And then I gave you some extended remarks at the end of the show on the Tennessee special election results last night. So there is no limit of content.

[Tim Miller]

Carpenter Yesterday, nuts yesterday.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Today we got Jonathan Lemire. We got the next level coming out later. Stick around for all that. Appreciate you guys. Up next, Jonathan Lemire.

[Tim Miller]

Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. Delighted to welcome to the show. Staff writer at the Atlantic, co host of morning Joe on Ms. Now, he's covered the White House since 2016 for a bunch of outlets.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Politico, AP it's Jonathan Lemaire.

[Tim Miller]

What's up, man?

[Jonathan Lemire]

Hey, man, good to see you.

[Tim Miller]

Good to see you, too. You had a great piece for the Atlantic this week I wanted to grab you on called the bubble wrapped president regarding Trump. And I think it's interesting because it's kind of like sort of a traditional type of piece that you could have written about Joe Biden or George Bush.

Is different in a lot of ways and unique in a lot of ways. But, like, this has been an issue kind of as old as time with presidents.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Like how do you, when you're inside this White House, like maintain touch with what's happening in the country? Trump avoided that a little bit through his, like, rallies in other ways throughout his time. But it feels like he is now kind of receding into a problem that we've seen from more normal politicians in the past. What do you make of that?

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, I mean, he's far from the first president, as you say, to struggle with the bubble. Some of that is the nature of the White House. Some of that's extraordinary security measures that come with the job. But Trump is facing an extreme version of it now. And a big part of it is there's a number of reasons, but the biggest one, I'd argue is he stopped doing his rallies, which, frankly, are the signature political event of our last decade. The Trump rally, right, started in 2015, all the way through his reelection bid a year ago. And not only would he travel the country, but he'd use those rallies as like, testing grounds. He'd give a line, he'd see what kind of response it got. The crowd liked it. Well, he'd say it the next night and it would, you know, a line would become this part of the speech, which sometimes would become policy. If something that, you know, he said that went over like a dud, well, he usually would drop that. But also before and after the events, he would meet with people, local officials, state party chairs, even just some regular supporters occasionally. And though he didn't love traveling the country, it gave him a real window into what his base cared about. He stopped doing that, and people around him are afraid he's now flying blind.

[Tim Miller]

Why did he stop it? You read in the article that he.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Told his aides after the Grand Rapids rally at the end of the campaign in 2024, that that would be his last.

[Tim Miller]

You said there that he didn't enjoy.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Really driving the country.

[Tim Miller]

He did seem to enjoy the rallies.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Oh, he loved being on stage, no doubt. And it is a surprise to some people around him that they've stopped. I mean, yeah, he closes every campaign by Sue. He's very superstitious with that. With an event in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and after the one in 2024, which was in the early hours of Election Day, that Tuesday morning, he said, that's it, I'm done now. He's actually had a couple of small sort of rally like events early this year. He did one to mark 100 days in office that was also in Michigan, but it was nothing compared to what you consider a full fledged Trump rally. It's a couple of things I am told that, you know, look, I mean, he continued to do rallies after the assassination attempt in Butler County, Pennsylvania, but understandably got spooked by that. Secret Service also has made it that much harder, you know, their qualifications for securing a venue that much higher now. But also, I think he was sort of just worn out. And we know the president doesn't like to talk about being tired or his fact that he's approaching 80, but it is exhausting. And he has instead traded those for nights at the White House. He's traded that for dinners with billionaires or business leaders who want something for him. And we looked at his schedule, his in 2017, the first year of his first term, a pretty robust travel schedule within the United States. This year, the first year of his second term, yeah, he's traveling overseas a fair amount, but he's done next to no domestic travel. In fact, in October and November, the only times he left the Washington area to travel in the United States.

[Tim Miller]

Mar a lago. Let me guess. Boom.

[Jonathan Lemire]

You nailed it.

[Tim Miller]

Simply, his golf clubs.

[Jonathan Lemire]

His golf courses. Yep. His own clubs.

[Tim Miller]

You're right in the article. It's interesting.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

It's not just the fake news at msnow that is noticing this.

[Tim Miller]

I mean, Bannon is complaining about this.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Others, they're like, why are you traveling overseas so much? It does take a lot out of a president. We're going to get to the age stuff in a second. But also it's literally the antithesis of what is right there in the name of the slogan of America first.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

And he seems, I guess, so obsessed with the peace prize and the deal making process that, that he has ignored the domestic travel in favor of, you know, going overseas.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah. It's not just those of us at msnow. And I'm coming to you, by the way, from the darkest possible corner of the new MSNow offices. Apologies for the backdrop looking nice.

[Tim Miller]

I think it's a little ominous.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, it's sort of Death Star ish, frankly. This room now look again, this is where he's a little bit like a typical president. A lot of second term presidents who, you know, inherently are a lame duck find that they can't do as much with a domestic agenda. They often shift focus to foreign policy. Oh, that's where we'll lead. I'll make my legacy. That's where I think I can do more unilaterally. I don't need Congress's approval on the world stage. So in this case, President Trump is acting like that. But he also, you just said it. He's desperate for a Nobel Peace Prize. By the day, the number of conflicts he's allegedly ended, his tally seems to go up. But some of his most faithful supporters are saying, wait a minute, like, your focus should be here at home. That's what you promised during the campaign last year. You know, I don't want to see you in Saudi Arabia, you know, sure important to talk about peace in the Middle east. But like, you know, don't forget here at home. And Marjorie Taylor Greene, right before she fully broke with the President, she was one of those voices who said, look, leave Air Force One parked on the tarmac, stay here in the United States.

[Tim Miller]

You would think that that would be a red flashing warning sign for him.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

That if Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

[Tim Miller]

Are complaining about something and Marco Rubio is happy, that's just another thing about.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

The second term that's kind of related to the bubble wrap, which is more.

[Tim Miller]

Than the first time.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

He does kind of care about the feedback of the rich CEOs, the people that are funding the ballroom. You know, Marco, right. It's kind of this weird dichotomy where.

[Tim Miller]

Like the people that were in there.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Last time that were establishment that were kind of putting the brakes on him, you know, those folks are not there.

[Tim Miller]

But there's like a new class of kind of establishment suck ups that he.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Seems to be gravitating to more than the traditional mag allies.

[Tim Miller]

What do you make of that?

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, and people around Trump have long said, and I mean, I've covered him for a long time now say like the one thing that impresses him is wealth. And he loves the idea that these rich, powerful people are coming to him to kiss the ring or to ask him for things or to donate money to whatever cause he suggests, whether that's the presidential library that allegedly is going to be built someday or the ballroom that's now in place of the devastated White House East Wing. But you also make a good point. In the, in the first term, he was surrounded by some establishment Republican figures folks, you know, well, who would occasionally tell him no, who would, would pump the brakes on some of his ideas. That's just gone this time around by design. It's just true believer. So therefore no one is telling him, hey, you're actually out of touch here. No one's saying this is a bad idea. And even his, his media diet has become more and more that way. There was, you know, in the first term, yes, of course there's Fox News, there's still Fox News, but now there's also OAN and Newsmax. Last time he was on Twitter where at least he'd occasionally encounter, you know, an opposing viewpoint.

[Tim Miller]

He was watching you on Morning Joe. He was live bleeding that I guess he was tweeting. Back then he was still on Twitter, you know.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, I'm told he still does that a little bit this time around, but less but it's more is he's existing Truth Social Media, which is a site he owns, it's completely sycophants. It's all his acolytes. We just saw him go on a. What was it he tweeted or he truth to retruth over a hundred posts the other night.

[Tim Miller]

Was it he was. He posted once a minute all night long. Do we know what the deal was with that?

[Jonathan Lemire]

Well, he likes to say he doesn't sleep very much. I've long said that the best window into his soul is what he does on Truth Social in the middle of the night, because that means he's not sleeping, he's up and likely unhappy about something. And in this case, like, look, we. We know what his poll numbers are. I don't think it's a shock that this came after Gallup had him at the lowest mark of his second term.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Melania should be cuddling him a little bit more, I would think. You know, I'm going to decline him on that. Yeah, yeah.

[Tim Miller]

You don't have any thoughts?

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

You don't have any thoughts on that one?

[Tim Miller]

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

I don't even know what to say to the people? Sometimes it's like, do I care about tannins? I don't know.

[Tim Miller]

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

I'm still feeling fresh this morning and.

[Tim Miller]

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

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[Tim Miller]

It's the worst of the wines.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

It's a great movie Sideways, but I'm kind of embittered about it, and so I'm inverting it.

[Tim Miller]

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

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[Tim Miller]

Okay?

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

No Pinot for me.

[Tim Miller]

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

About that in particular. I wasn't invited.

[Tim Miller]

The Bulwark didn't make the press pool the first time around. You were there, though, with AP and Politico, and so he's doing a lot of press conferences still.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

You got to just acknowledge that, like, he's still taking a lot of questions.

[Tim Miller]

But, like, the makeup of the people.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Questioning him has changed so dramatically from last time.

[Tim Miller]

And like there are some handful of people mixed in. Every once in a while, you'll see Kaitlan Collins in there. Vaughn was at the White House yesterday. You'll see some people, but like a lot of, you know, MAGA blogger 420.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Also are asking him questions.

[Jonathan Lemire]

You know, this is a great point, and it's one of the things that he's done differently this time around is the White House has more or less hijacked the press pool over the objections of the White House Correspondent Association. They kicked AP out early on for not saying Gulf of America. And since then, now the White House picks who's in the pool every day. So you're right. Trump still takes a Lot of questions. But here's where it's changed in two ways. In the first term he held a lot of like formal news conferences where everyone was in there and reporters from every outlet. Even in his estimation the lamestream media could ask him questions. He stopped doing formal news conferences this time. He still takes a lot of questions, but only from the pool. And since his staff is picking who's in the pool, largely he's facing friendly faces who are asking him less than tough questions. There are exceptions. There are days where whether it's on.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Air Force One, Bloomberg was in there. He's Connor Piggy.

[Jonathan Lemire]

To be sure, there are moments where he takes tough, he does take tough questions. But there are fewer and farther between than last time around.

[Tim Miller]

Some evidence of your thesis. It's nice when you write a piece.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

And then it gets proven accurate to.

[Tim Miller]

A degree the next day. Does that feel good as a journalist? Trump has one of the cabinet meetings. Yesterday he said more of those.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

This time it feels like the made for TV cabinet meetings.

[Tim Miller]

Less time spent in Georgia.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

A lot of time having people tell him how great he is in the cabinet meetings.

[Tim Miller]

And the bubble element of this is.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Just kind of abundantly clear both in just obviously the oh, you're so great, sir. You're so great.

[Tim Miller]

Like the North Korea stuff. But also he's dozing off, he's seeming tired. You can understand why he might not have wanted to travel, why it's easier just to go, you know, shuffle down to the, to the cabinet room, have people tell you how great you are. It seems like a night, you know, take a little cat nap. I'm a napper so it's fine. But you know, it seems like he dozed off several times. It's usually one little nap for me in a day. But he's, it looks like he got.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

A couple of them during that cabinet meeting.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, my own is. I tried. I usually inevitably have like a 15 minute like early afternoon.

[Tim Miller]

You're up on way too early post lunch.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, I mean I sleep in look the way too early days the alarm would go off at 3:15 now with just starting at 6 for Morning Joe. Like I get to sleep all the way into 4:30.

[Tim Miller]

Fifteen minutes for you. So it's just. Are you in the suit?

[Jonathan Lemire]

Honestly, Tim, it depends on the day. I mean this is gonna, you know, some days it's just like leaning back in the chair. Other days it's more of a full fledged. I'm gonna lay down for a few minutes and you know, be in my workout gear. Whatever it might be.

[Tim Miller]

So we have two expert nappers here. So I think that we bring some.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Expertise to kind of assessing Trump's, where.

[Jonathan Lemire]

I don't know, is in front of the press pool in the Cabinet, and that is where President Trump did yesterday. It's not the first time. There's been a few of these in recent weeks. The Washington Post in particular has been on this beat, noting when he was really chronically with video, how long he appeared to have been asleep. But I think the timing of this one is interesting because it comes just a week after the New York Times did a big story about his schedule and how almost like a dovetail piece with mine, but they really focused on the hours of the day that he was working. And they said, well, compared to the first term, he's starting later and his days are ending earlier. And the White House pushed back. We know President Trump hates to ever acknowledge any bit of human frailty, including what part of his body he received an mri, but in this case, they said, no, he's working all hours of the day. Look how he's tireless. He's got the stamina of a much younger man. And then just days later, this happened in the, in the White House, where he was clearly dozing off, you know, off and on during what was a marathon three hour cabinet meeting. He's pushing 80.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Yeah, he's pushing 80.

[Tim Miller]

Like, objectively speaking, you have to.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

That has to explain part of the travel stuff, too.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know anybody that has, anyone that's pushing 80 in their life can know that. Like, it's a, it's, it's a bitch. You got to change time zones. You get tired.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

I think that clearly they are either.

[Tim Miller]

Directed by him himself or, you know.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

In their management of him. They're changing how to schedule.

[Jonathan Lemire]

I think there's no doubt of that, that, that he is much more White House centric in part because it is easier travel on anybody, takes a toll. There were moments in the, you know, his first term where I'd be on a lot of his overseas trips. There was a, in the first year, we went to Asia for literally two weeks. And we're all running on fumes at that point. Like, there's no question about how old you are. Traveling is hard even for a president. But like, it is striking just how little he has done here. This isn't a quirk of the schedule because I reported this in the piece. They talked about this summer, putting him out there to support the one big beautiful bill. They talked about maybe Doing some campaigning this fall. None of that came to be. He got distracted with Foreign Affairs. He didn't want to be on the road and face questions about Jeffrey Epstein because that story exploded just as he was going to be out there this summer. And instead he's opting for telerally, which of course have far, far, far less impact.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

That was also kind of reminiscent of his OG strategy.

[Tim Miller]

Calling into the cable shows, going to the talk shows. You've never fallen asleep. One time during Morning Joe, you know, Scarborough is on one of the soliloquies where he's talking five minutes, six minutes. You never just get a quick little, quick little doze in.

[Jonathan Lemire]

I mean, occasionally I'll look at my phone and do wordle. No, I have not. I haven't fallen asleep. At least not that I'm aware of. I'm hanging on every word uttered by my co host.

[Tim Miller]

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

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[Tim Miller]

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

On evidence that he is a little.

[Tim Miller]

Bit out of touch, he starts talking about the affordability. Also yesterday during the academy, you see this, and he says that he thinks.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

That voters are getting fake news from.

[Tim Miller]

People like you about affordability. Affordability is a hoax.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

It was started by the Democrats.

[Jonathan Lemire]

This actually dovetails with another piece that I wrote recently where suddenly Trump 2.0 is starting to feel a lot like Trump 1.0, where for the first seven or eight months of this term, I mean, you know, you can argue whether you agree with what he did was good, but he was effective in sort of enacting his agenda, facing no pushback from Congress, very little from the courts, et cetera. In the last two months or so, he said a ton of roadblocks, including with a lot of unforced errors. And this moment yesterday is just the latest time where he's really downplayed the affordability crisis. And that reminds me of so many times in the first term where the White House would be positioned. Staff around him would be like, okay, we're going to talk about this issue, X, Y, or Z, it's important. And Trump would just be like, ah, I don't want to, and just blow it up in the. In the moment. And that's what happened here, too. The White House is actually prepared after the election results of a month ago recognized that affordability is a crisis. Republicans are going to have a problem next year during the midterms on that issue. They're trying to prepare Trump to talk about it, and he simply won't. He'll use the word affordability, but it's always joined by the words hoax or con job. He simply won't acknowledge that Americans are feeling the pain right now.

[Tim Miller]

They tried to do a cleanup on the Venezuelan boat strike yesterday at the.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Cabinet meeting as well, where Hegseth says.

[Tim Miller]

Of course, as Secretary of War, I.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Was watching the first strike and then I walked away. Then an hour or two later, this admiral makes the decision to shoot the people out of the sea. I guess that's their kind of spin on the Washington Post story and trying their defense of why they initially pushed back and said it was a total lie and they're an enemy of the people. But I don't know if you had.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Anything else on that, Pete Hegseth's under a lot of intense pressure right now, and we saw the day after, I'll remind everyone listening here, the day after that September 2nd strike, he went on Fox and Friends and boasted that he was there, saw the whole thing, oversaw the operation. It was under his authority. He got this done. I'm paraphrasing only slightly and that's a very different tone that we've heard from the last couple of days where he's clearly trying to point the finger at this admiral and say, look, that was his call, I support him, but I wasn't in the room, I wasn't involved. But look, the White House itself, Caroline Levitt, the press secretary, said this week, like the order to kill them all, as it were, you know, the sort of umbrella order was issued by the secretary of defense and then like specifics were carried out by admirals and the like. So Hegseth is still very much in the focus here and this week is going to be potentially really tricky for him. That admiral, Admiral Bradley is going to be testifying on the Hill behind closed doors tomorrow. Also this week, the Signalgate report, the IG report from the Pentagon is being released to Congress this week and at least a redacted version will be made public. So Hagseth is certainly the temperature's up.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And Laura Loomer, who is besides you the best reporter on the beat of.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Letting us know what's happening inside the.

[Tim Miller]

White House, is talking about how there's.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

A coup for Hagseth, the Secretary of army, potentially trying to angle for the slot.

[Tim Miller]

All right, guys, I don't know if you're like me and you're ever waking.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Up and you're just sweating. Why am I sweating when I'm waking up so much?

[Tim Miller]

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

In the regular sheets that are making you all splotchy on your face. Something to think about.

[Tim Miller]

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

What the White House is thinking about on that.

[Jonathan Lemire]

The talks there have truly have stalled yet again, it would appear. You know, there was seemingly some momentum about a week or 10 days back when I wrote that piece, in part because the White House may was making a new push to get a deal. Now what we then learned is that they were doing so with talking points largely provided by Russia and Ukraine of course wanted nothing to do with it. Now Kyiv has learned their lessons. They don't want to publicly disagree with Trump anymore. They saw how that happened when Trump blew up at Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. So they're being much more diplomatic about it. But they've made it clear there are things in that deal they just certainly could not agree to. Secretary of State Rubio stepped in the process, you know, struck a more supportive tone for Ukraine than perhaps Steve Witkoff has done. But yesterday Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in Moscow. They met with Putin. Both sides acknowledged okay, you know, we agreed to kept talking and maybe small progress made. No breakthrough unless Trump is willing to step in decisively one way or the other. And your guess is as good as mine as to whose side we would come in on. I think that that conflict is going to continue as is for a while and we're going to do this all again in a month or two.

[Tim Miller]

Sixth meeting between our outer borough Russia.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Ukraine envoy and Putin. Zero trips to Ukraine for him, not one. Did he get any presents yesterday? Putin has been pretty good at buttering up Wyckoff. Did he get any paintings of himself.

[Tim Miller]

Or anything, or a medal?

[Jonathan Lemire]

No, he's done that before, but I'm not aware of what he had to declare. Customs coming back this time.

[Tim Miller]

Another one of your Colleagues read this today.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

I just wanted to pop this.

[Tim Miller]

It's kind of related to what you.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

See happening in Europe. Something you've been covering is in Germany.

[Tim Miller]

You guys write at the Atlantic. For the first time Since World War II, Germany is permanently stationing troops beyond its borders. Not long ago, these plans would have set off international alarms. But as the US Upends the global.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Order it created, Germany may have no other choice.

[Tim Miller]

This is something. While we're doing Groundhog Day on the Russia, Ukraine negotiations, Europe is moving, things are changing.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

And I just think this is an interesting kind of tangible data point on that.

[Jonathan Lemire]

No doubt. My colleague Isaac Stanley Becker wrote a great piece on this. And this shows you just how the world has changed because of Donald Trump's foreign policy and what. What Europe. The lesson Europe has learned over this last year in particular is they can't count the United States anymore. And, you know, and it's not just because Trump's in office now. It's that, you know, we had four years of President Trump, then President Biden is elected basically on, you know, he come out of the gate saying, america's back. You can count on us again. Well, that turned out not to be the case because Donald Trump was then put back in office. You know, Europe has realized they can't just rely on us to be their security guarantor or their financial backing, that these nations are going to have to step up their own spending, and that includes Germany, which even a decade or two ago would have been unfathomable.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Well, last thing.

[Tim Miller]

Anything on this Honduras pardon you got? And it's pretty. It's so crazy. President Juan Hernandez of Honduras was officially pardoned.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

We said this was coming early in the week, but that's now happened.

[Tim Miller]

He was at the center of what authorities have characterized as one of the.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Largest and most violent drug trafficking conspiracies in the world.

[Tim Miller]

This is kind of a DGAF moment, I guess, for these guys. Like in the middle of bombing Venezuela over imaginary fentanyl. They're doing this, this pardon. It's pretty crazy. What are you hearing on that?

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, you'd be hard pressed to find a Republican to defend this one. That it comes as, first of all, just how discordant it is that we're ramping up military operations against these boats off the coast of Venezuela. And Trump threatened we might do land strikes in Venezuela in the coming days.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

In the press conference yesterday, I should have mentioned that.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Yeah, yeah. And this is nominally about drug trafficking. I mean, I think there's more to it. Than that at the same time, he puts out releases. This guy gives a pardon to the president of Honduras who prosecutors say ran an international drug cartel and who bragged about stuffing drugs up the nose of gringos. Again, I'm paraphrasing only slightly. That's what he said. I think that there's strange connections here with Roger Stone took his case. You know, Trump is, is sympathetic to anyone who feels like he's been victim of a political prosecution. There's no evidence that that's what this was, but that's what Trump has convinced himself. Also, the investigation into this president started during Trump's first term. There's a crypto angle here as well. Where Honduras, under this president was very offered safe space for some of these crypto tech leaders, creating his crypto city.

[Tim Miller]

For, you know, Peter Thiel, it was like you can buy and sell twink blood with cryptocurrency there. You know, there's just a lot of.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Opportunities, potentially there's a lot of opportunities to make money. And that's probably at the end of the day what this was about. But this is a head spinning pardon and one, you know, that I'm waiting to hear from, like police unions and other law enforcement officials say, hey, this guy flooded our streets with drugs. How is this making us any safer?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

I should correct President Hernandez though, that we live in a pluralistic, multicultural society.

[Tim Miller]

Okay.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

The drugs are going up the nose.

[Tim Miller]

Of people, not just gringos. Okay, not just gringos.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Jonathan Lemire, man, thanks for hopping on this morning. And everybody else, stick around. I want to talk about the Tennessee 7 race.

[Jonathan Lemire]

Thank you. Happy to come back anytime.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

See you, buddy.

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[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

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[Tim Miller]

I'm seeing a pattern here.

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[Tim Miller]

Hey everybody, just wanted to nerd out with you a little bit on that Tennessee seventh special election last night. The Republican there, Matt Van Epps gets.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

The win with 54% of the vote. Basically Afton been it's 45%. So it's a nine point victory for Van Epps.

[Tim Miller]

But this is in a district that.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

The margin in 2024 was 21 in the House, 22 at the presidential level. So it's a 12 to 13 point gain for the Democrats.

[Tim Miller]

I think that there's a lot of.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Potential implications about that. Looking ahead to the midterms, first I just want to talk about Nashville a little bit because I was, I was interviewing former Vice President Harris.

[Tim Miller]

There was a couple weeks ago, she had just done a campaign stop for Bain.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

There's a little bit of, a little bit of controversy there in Nashville about.

[Tim Miller]

Whether, you know, the Vice President was wanted there. They didn't show up together. So there were no pictures.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

This question of like, are we trying.

[Tim Miller]

To focus more on turnout versus persuasion?

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

And then I thought it was interesting that after that whole dialogue, believe it was the final day or final two days. She has a zoom rally with AOC and with Al Gore watched a little bit of that. There were some commenters calling for Gore.

[Tim Miller]

To run in 2028.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

So you better watch out there.

[Tim Miller]

Al Gore, I think younger than Joe.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Biden or, or Donald Trump.

[Tim Miller]

So you never know if we want to continue the gerontocracy. But you know, in one of these.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Special elections, I think at this point you're like trying to pull any lever you can get to try to get people to, to realize that this is happening. And you saw in Tennessee a little Bit higher turnout than you have seen in other special elections. It was, you know, I think about over 50% of the general election turnout showed up in the special when you're usually seeing something more in the 30s and 40s.

[Tim Miller]

And so on the one hand I think that's a good sign for Democrats.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

And kind of in a higher turnout special they still gain 12 to 13 points. On the other hand, you see how you get kind of stuck in these gerrymandered districts where like the higher the turnout is in a red district, the more that marginal voter is going to end up being a, being a Trump person.

[Tim Miller]

But I think we learned a little bit here.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Afton Bain was, I think it's fair to say it's kind of more left on the left side of the party. And the campaign itself was pretty focused on affordability and so called kitchen table issues in her advertising. You know, in the primary she was more progressive candidate. I think she's doing an interview over at Breaking Points this morning that tells you anything for folks who are familiar with those guys are kind of more of the lefty type horseshoe part of the media ecosystem. So I think that's her spot.

[Tim Miller]

And so you see some arguments between.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

The moderates and the progressives online about how maybe a moderate could have done better here.

[Tim Miller]

And I think that's probably true.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

I don't think that a moderate would have won nine more points here. You can sort of see this argument.

[Tim Miller]

Where the progressives are like we outperform by 12 and the moderate's like, well, you need to outperform by 20. And so that's kind of a never.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Ending fight that's always going to happen.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know that we learned a.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Ton of about the internal civil war within the Democratic Party, about the mods.

[Tim Miller]

Versus Progressives, but I think we did.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Learn a little bit about kind of where Democrats should be thinking about and focusing about their gains. If you look at the map of.

[Tim Miller]

Nashville, Nashville is one of the most.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Offensive gerrymanders in the country to me because Nashville doesn't have a Democratic rep, which is crazy. I mean the Davidson county, which is the main county where Nashville sits, Bain won by 56 points in that, in the portion of the district that goes into Nashville. Obviously Nashville deserves a representative. Instead, Tennessee is gerrymander it like pizza style. You know, the skinny part of the, of the pizza slice going into Nashville and it gets out and gets wider and wider and goes out into rural Nashville. And then, you know, there are like three or four different pizza slices that like Meet in the middle of Nashville. And so this, you know, this was just kind of one, one slice of that, of that district. And so, you know, this is why I've kind of been on the side of like, the Democrats just need to go fully whole hog in the gerrymandering war. We can talk in 2029 if we, you know, if we're doing some reconstruction in this country, we're doing some political reforms, I'd sure be for some federal gerrymandering reform. But in the meantime, you know, you got to play hardball. If they're gonna, you know, carve up Tennessee to the point that Nashville doesn't have a fucking congressional district, it's a total outrage.

[Tim Miller]

But when you look at the results last night, you have like the inner.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Core of Nashville, you know, people that are like really, really living downtown, younger people. It's going to be more diverse demographics. Big gains from the Democrats last night.

[Tim Miller]

Pretty good, but like, not as big.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

As you saw in the inner suburban core where you just see this massive, like the Democrats. Now I used to joke that the Republicans get Saddam Hussein like numbers and in red parts of the country, the Democrats are getting close to getting Saddam Hussein like numbers and like the suburbs that are the closest to any big city in the country. And the Democrats do that last night and run up the score in that next ring though, in Williamson County, Williamson is a little bit of an outlier nationally where if you're in New Orleans here, Williamson County's Metairie, if you're in D.C. it's Fairfax, it's the big upper middle class suburb county next to the city.

[Tim Miller]

And Nashville has like attracted magas. There's something about, I don't know if.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

It'S country music or Candace Owens and Theo Vaughan or, you know, just kind of the reputation that it is a place where, if you're a conservative and you live in a blue part of the country, that's a place that you're going to be welcome if you want to move. And so Williamson county, it is the highest educated county in the whole country.

[Tim Miller]

That Trump won, I believe, and Van.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Epps wins it handily by 20 points. Afton only gained seven points there.

[Tim Miller]

So you look at that and you think, well, that's really, that's going to.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Be where the Democrats are going to have to, you know, focus on their over performance there. And I think that Williamson county is maybe a place where the moderate argument that having maybe a more culturally right candidate might have helped a little bit.

[Tim Miller]

But then you look at the city.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

And you see there's still just a little softness from the Democrats among young voters and among voters of color, black voters in particular, younger black men, really, in particular. You see maybe the stuff is cutting both ways.

[Tim Miller]

So it's like a little bit of.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

A challenge where you're trying to continue to run up the margins a little bit more with some of the cultural conservative voters out in the exurbs, while also juicing what had been a traditional Democratic base. Like finding a candidate that can do both is a little challenging.

[Tim Miller]

But all in all, if you gain.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

12 points, all of a sudden you start looking at the map for Democrats. As I keep saying, you go back to 2018, Democrats win a House seat in Oklahoma City, in Charleston, places that they'd never won seats before. And I think that if you're looking at a place like this in Nashville and you're seeing these gains, you see there's a shift from 24 to 25 blue everywhere. Huge shift in Nashville, 20 points to the Democratic side.

[Tim Miller]

But then even in the rurals, you're.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Seeing moves of Dixon County, 11 points, Humphreys County, 12 points, Perry County, 15 points.

[Tim Miller]

You're seeing significant moves to the Democrats. And that, I think, opens up seats.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

You know, if you're a Republican and you won in the midterm last time by 10, 11, 12, 13 points, you might have thought yourself safe. I don't know that you should think yourself safe anymore.

[Tim Miller]

So for folks who are looking for.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Candidates and campaigns of support, if you're wanting to support Democratic candidates where you think you can actually make a difference, I get this question a lot from people.

[Tim Miller]

I would just go ahead and pull.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Up the cookpolitical.com ratings. I had Dave Wasserman on over on Bulwark takes a few weeks ago, and him and Amy Walter, they're extremely good, and they're nonpartisan, but they have these rankings.

[Tim Miller]

And if you look at their rankings.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

And you go to the category that says lean Republican and then likely Republican. Likely Republican is kind of these stretch seats.

[Tim Miller]

Like, these are seats that are probably gonna go to the Republicans, but then a big wave.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Your Democrats could win. Look at Alaska at large. Vegas. Mary Peltola had that seat for a while. You look at that, that's certainly winnable. You look here at Colorado's third district, which the district Boebert moved out of, that includes a lot of the Western Slope, potentially, that's winnable. Montana, Zinke, you can go down to the South. North Carolina, Edwards, you look at.

[Tim Miller]

So I would look at those likely.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

Republican seats and finding kind of the potential Democratic candidates.

[Tim Miller]

So there you go. That's a little bit of analysis. It's unfortunate for the Democrats because I think right now everything's very tenuous in the House as far as potential retirements.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

I think another result of this, you're going to see more Republican retirements, but you can't retire and quit like Marjorie Taylor Greene is doing because it's putting their current House majority in jeopardy. So, you know, I think that there are some implications you're going to see there. But you look at this, the dark outstock, man. If the economy stays in the trajectory it's on, if the political environment doesn't change for Trump, if he stays bubble wrapped, it could be ugly next year. And you start to see places like, well, let's just throw this out there. Start to see places like these Senate races, Texas, Ohio, I mean, these are states statewide that Trump was not, you know, that was winning by about the shift that we saw in that special election last night. So this is not an apples to.

[Tim Miller]

Apples comparison, but you can at least.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

See that in theory those seem to be potentially in play. And it looks at least more plausible that the Democrats could compete in a place like Texas and Ohio if these trends continue than it would have seemed a couple weeks ago. So that is some good news for the Democrats directionally.

[Tim Miller]

Everybody appreciate that I'm running to D.C. we'd have much more on this over.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

On the Next Level feed. So go ahead and check that out. We're taping that this afternoon.

[Tim Miller]

We'll be up, I don't know, will that be up later tonight or tomorrow morning if we just refresh? Just refresh. Just kind of refresh. It'll come up soon and we'll be back tomorrow for a Thursday addiction of the podcast.

[Co-host (possibly Charlie Sykes)]

And we'll see you all then. Peace.

[Poet or singer performing]

Cover me in bubble wrap.

Keep me intact.

Smother me with loving hands When I stray from the path.

If I get to those golden gates and here.

[Tim Miller]

You.

[Poet or singer performing]

Can say I told you someone out.

Forevermore like the sun that will rise even after I die.

Kill for me in bubble red But I'm peeking through cracks in the old Tiffany glass and I'm trapped behind Smother me oh mother, please.

Can'T you see that you're killing the fight to the gates and he turn me.

Forever more like the sun that will rise even after I die.

Secret that I keep.

You from See.

[Tim Miller]

The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

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