The Bulwark Podcast

Episode: Jonathan V. Last and Carol Leonnig: The Danger of a Weakened Bully
Date: November 6, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guests: Jonathan V. Last ("JVL") & Carol Leonnig

Episode Overview

Tim Miller hosts a double-header Bulwark episode: the first half is a political debrief with Jonathan V. Last about the Democrats’ surprising electoral wins, shifts in the Hispanic vote, and the implications for Trump’s political future. The second half is an in-depth interview with Carol Leonnig about her new book Injustice: How Politics and Fear Vanquished America's Justice Department. The conversation covers the erosion of DOJ norms, the missing Egypt bribery investigation, the fake electors, Merrick Garland's legacy, threats of politicized prosecutions, and the challenges of future DOJ recovery.

Part 1: Election Results, Hispanic Voters, and Trump’s Waning Power

(00:00–29:00, content starts at 01:29)

Highlights & Key Discussion Points

The Democrats’ Election Wins & Hispanic Voter Realignment

• Big Takeaway: Republicans suffered historic losses in heavily Hispanic precincts, a sharp swing from Trump’s previous gains in 2016/2020.

  • JVL details the data:
    • Union City, NJ (81% Hispanic)
      • Trump vote in 2016: 19%
      • 2020: 28%
      • 2024: 41%
      • In the most recent election, GOP dropped to 15%! (02:55–03:38)
    • Massive swings—often 50 points—against Republicans in other NJ towns with dense Hispanic populations.
  • Tim Miller’s reaction:
    • “It’s truly crazy... Passaic County, Trump actually won it by seven. Sherrill won it by 26. Only a 33 point swing there. Only.” (04:54–05:10)

• Caveats to over-reading results:

  • Off-year and odd-year election turnout (older, more college-educated, more plugged-in voters)
  • Local political machines (e.g., Union City’s Brian Stack)
  • Even discounting these, the swing is dramatic (06:00).

• Broader theme:

  • This drop among Hispanic voters matches national polling showing Trump’s collapse with both 18–35-year-olds and Hispanics. (07:00)
  • The clear driver: Trump’s hardline deportation campaign and ongoing high costs/inflation. “Trump is pot committed to his deportation campaign.” (08:12)

Trump’s Prospects and Reactions to Weakening Bully Status

• Trump’s levers are weakening: His ability to dominate (bully) is limited by continued legal, political, and electoral rebukes.
• What will Trump do next?
  • May become more aggressive or “lash out” in attempts to reassert control—possible shows of force, threats, or legal actions.
  • Political strategy likened to Vince McMahon/WWE: "Just get it in the ring... you can make moves, you can maneuver, you can find an angle." – JVL (11:13)

The “2028” Threat and Republican Party Control

• JVL floats the theory: Trump will always seek to freeze his party and maintain kingmaker power, possibly even trying to circumvent term limits. (14:10)
• Steve Bannon’s claim: He boasts there are “five different ways” they could try to keep Trump in power beyond two terms. (15:06)
• Tim on Trump's motivations: “Being president is less important than owning the Republican Party.” (15:10)

The Democratic Mood & Lingering Anxiety

• Post-election caution: Miller warns against overconfidence, noting all fundamental headwinds facing Democrats are still in play—except for recent Hispanic shifts. (19:51)
• JVL’s somber realism:
  • “Trump has as much or more power than any American president since FDR... his capacity to do damage is still unimaginable.” (19:51)
  • “Yesterday turned out as well as you could have asked for it to turn out… it’s necessary, but not sufficient for rolling back all this stuff.” (21:31)

Notable Quotes

• JVL on never returning to the "Old America":
  • “I have given up the hope that we could ever go back to American political life as it existed... That world is gone… If there’s a chance that we could just get inshitification instead of authoritarianism, I’ll take inshitification over Viktor Orban’s Hungary every day of the week.” (23:30–24:38)
• Tim, wryly:
  • “I really needed this. I hope Sarah doesn’t listen to this.” (27:26)
• JVL on voters' behavior:
  • “It isn’t the case they all saw a million people die [from COVID]... and these people in Passaic County thought, ‘Yeah, let's fucking roll the dice.’ I’m glad they’ve come home and realized that the stove was hot...” (26:34–27:11)

Part 2: Carol Leonnig and the DOJ in the Trump Era

(29:00–end, content starts 29:48)

Highlights & Key Discussion Points

The Honors Program and DOJ Culture

• Leonnig lays out the DOJ's ideal:
  • “We wanted to introduce the Department of Justice to people who don't cover it... These people kind of have a shared notion of what's right… It’s a living, breathing institution.” (31:46)
  • The DOJ attracts people with a “calling”—not political axe-grinders, but professionals with a mission.

Trump-Era Departures and DoJ “Brain Drain”

• Mass exodus:
  • “There’s an estimate out there that 4,000 FBI agents and federal prosecutors have left since January 20th.” (34:14)
  • Those who remain are "holding on" out of commitment, bearing witness to corruption, and hoping to rebuild. (35:49)
  • “I'm just holding on because this can’t stand.” (35:49)

The Egypt Bribery Investigation: The $10 Million Mystery

• Jaw-dropping story:
  • In 2016, CIA informs DOJ there’s intelligence Egypt’s President Sisi sought to send $10M to Trump’s campaign.
  • At the same time, $10M in cash leaves an Egyptian bank, Trump writes a $10M check to his campaign. But Bill Barr, as AG, halts the investigation, and DOJ doesn’t pursue Trump’s bank records. (36:51–39:14)
  • The Biden DOJ never reopened the case—despite the statute of limitations being open.
    • “The statute of limitations had not run, and the Biden DOJ did not open that investigation. There were people who told us Merrick Garland was never briefed on it. But it’s kind of a big deal...” (39:37)

The January 6th Investigation and Missed Opportunities

• Early red flags: National Archives spots “fake electors” and refers to DOJ, which shrugs it off.
  • “We should have been walking and chewing gum... We should have been doing both things. That’s the first missed boat.” (42:58)
• Further delays: Thomas Windham, prosecutor, was blocked from investigating Trump-world rioter coordination; subpoena requests denied (43:45–46:25)

Merrick Garland’s Reluctance and Its Consequences

• Garland freezes Trump investigation until after midterms, even when Trump was not a candidate—leaving DOJ far behind the Jan 6 Committee.
  • "Freezing that case for 60 days when Trump is not a candidate really makes a lot of prosecutors' hair blow back." (47:10)
• House Jan 6 Committee gets there first: DOJ wasn’t even aware of Cassidy Hutchinson until her public testimony. House’s evidence and pressure spurred DOJ to act. (48:55)
  • “There were two or three really key moments when the House investigation spurred DOJ to do things that exact same freaking day.” (48:55–50:40)

Jack Smith, Eileen Cannon, and DOJ’s Present-Day Problems

• **Smith moves “bionically fast”—but even he’s stymied, e.g., denied attempt to remove Judge Cannon from Mar-a-Lago docs case. Garland unlikely to override Solicitor General's rejection. (51:56–53:23)
• On future DOJ recovery:
  • The “centuries of experience” gone, lack of credibility, risk of further politicization. Even if a reform-minded administration returns, damage may not be repairable in “our lifetimes.” (54:27)

Looming Threats of Politicized Prosecution (Mike Davis/Florida Grand Jury)

• Mike Davis claims a new Trumpist grand jury is being empaneled to target Trump's enemies (Democratic leaders, law enforcement, etc.) in Florida:
  • Leonnig teases this is “true and stay tuned... there’s more.” (57:01)
  • “It’s really a bloodbath. If you’re a prosecutor in any U.S. attorney’s office… you’re going to resign if you’re forced to do something [unethical].” (59:26)

Notable Quotes

• Leonnig, on the DOJ's battered state:
  • “The hit the department has taken... it’s just not recoverable in the near term... it’s impossible to recover and expect that those folks are going to get replaced appropriately.” (54:27)
• Leonnig, bluntly:
  • “Where’s the credibility for the DOJ? Is everybody going to assume that criminal prosecutions have been directed or manipulated by the party in power?” (55:19)

Notable Timestamps by Segment

• [02:55] – JVL on the Hispanic vote swings
• [08:12] – Deportation politics and their effect on GOP support
• [14:10] – Trump’s post-2028 ambitions
• [19:51] – JVL on Trump’s enduring power and the limits of recent Democratic wins
• [23:30] – JVL on the end of "Old America"
• [31:46] – Leonnig on DOJ culture and the Honors Program
• [34:14] – DOJ’s brain drain post-2017/2021
• [36:51] – Leonnig’s summary of the Egypt $10M case
• [42:55] – DOJ’s reluctance to pursue fake electors
• [47:10] – DOJ pauses investigation before ’22 midterms; Leonnig’s reactions
• [48:55] – House Jan 6 Committee outpacing DOJ
• [51:56] – Jack Smith moves “bionically fast” on Trump
• [54:27] – Irreparable harm to DOJ's institutional health
• [57:01] – Davis/MAGA grand jury threat confirmation

Tone and Style

• Engaged, analytical, and sardonic: The conversations are frank, data-driven, and occasionally darkly funny, typified by Tim and JVL’s banter (“inshitification” as a preferable outcome to Orban-style authoritarianism) and Carol Leonnig’s mix of hard-hitting reporting and gallows humor.
• No-nonsense, inside-baseball realism: Especially in the second half, there’s a clear-eyed appraisal of how the Trump era has damaged the U.S. justice system and the challenges facing anyone trying to repair it.

Memorable Moments

• “That is a 12-month swing... not four years to now. That is 12 months ago to right now.” – JVL, on the rapid reversal among Hispanic voters (05:44)
• “If there’s a chance that we could just get inshitification instead of authoritarianism, I’ll take inshitification...” – JVL (24:38)
• “It's really a bloodbath... you are going to resign if you're forced to do something [unethical].” – Leonnig (59:26)
• “The hit the Department has taken... it's just not recoverable in the near term... lost centuries of experience...” – Leonnig (54:27)

Summary Takeaways

• The week's surprising Democratic wins signal severe problems for Republicans, especially with Hispanic voters—but the broader political and democratic threats loom large.
• Trump’s grip on the GOP remains powerful, but his ability to control or “bully” may be ebbing, risking more erratic or desperate moves.
• The Department of Justice suffered deep institutional scars, with mass departures, politicization, and loss of public faith—trauma that isn’t easily or quickly reversed.
• New dangers are brewing: politicized prosecutions may be weaponized in MAGA stronghold courts, threatening yet more democratic backsliding.
• In the face of all this, the panel’s mood alternates between cautious hope, exhausted resignation, and grim humor—a realistic appraisal for turbulent times.

Recommended for:

• Listeners seeking a clear-eyed, deeply reported view of Democratic wins, shifting coalitions, and the ongoing political and institutional risks posed by Trumpism—especially the erosion of rule-of-law norms in the federal government.