The Bulwark Podcast

Episode: Jonathan V. Last: Burning Things Down
Date: September 1, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

Episode Overview

This episode features Tim Miller in conversation with Jonathan V. Last, who steps in for regular guest Bill Kristol. The main theme is the alarming fragility and ongoing erosion of liberal democratic institutions in the United States, especially in light of recent events and Trumpist politics. The discussion covers worst-case scenarios for American democracy, the degradation of institutional trust, red states’ increasing aggression toward blue states, the fracturing of American foreign policy alliances, and the day’s political oddities—including Rudy Giuliani’s curious car accident. The tone is both darkly humorous and deeply concerned about the future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Collapse of Institutional Norms and Trust

• JVL’s "Dark Triads": Tim notes that JVL's recent newsletter writings have been especially bleak, focusing on how "simple systems fall apart" and the growing risks of autocracy.
• Past vs. Present: Initially after Trump’s election, JVL was cautiously optimistic, guessing Trump might be benignly self-absorbed. Now, he believes the situation has grown much, much worse, surpassing even his previous 90th-percentile worst-case scenarios ([03:22]).
• Escalating Authoritarianism: JVL underscores the chilling shift:

  “I think we’re way past that. National Guard in the cities, military in the cities, masked federal agents just grabbing people off the streets, using third countries as places to deport to… I hadn’t foreseen that.” ([03:54])

• Red States vs. Blue States: States like Missouri and Indiana moving to coordinate aggressive redistricting and abortion travel restrictions are signs of a dangerous us-vs-them dynamic reminiscent of the run-up to the Civil War ([05:07]).

2. The New Normal: Erosion of Liberal Democracy

• Tim and JVL lament that broken norms—like politicized DOJ actions and the collapse of federal institutional neutrality—are not likely to be restored.
• Permanent Institutional Damage:

  “There’s a lot of these things that he has broken institutionally… I keep coming back to the DOJ. The notion of an independent DOJ—I do not understand how that gets reconstituted.” (Tim, [08:42])

• One-Sided Justice:

  “We’ll have an independent Justice Department under Democratic administrations and not under Republican administrations.” (JVL, [10:09])

3. COVID, Public Health, and Cult Politics

• CDC/Health Policy Turmoil: Tim references reporting about the messy internal dynamics at the CDC and the Biden/Trump administration’s contradictory handling of vaccine policy, led by officials with questionable priorities ([13:27]).
• Tribal Anti-Expertism: Trump’s public stance wavers between claiming credit for Operation Warp Speed and stoking anti-science conspiracies to appease the MAGA base and Robert Kennedy Jr. supporters.

  “It’s kind of funny that the ripping apart is happening within Trump. He wants to take credit for it so badly, but he also knows that he needs the quacks and the cranks...” (Tim, [14:54])

• Irreversible Institutional Distrust:

  “We’re going to get a whole bunch of studies coming out of the government around health and science… we’re not going to be able to trust any of them.” (JVL, [22:21])

4. Democracy and the International Order

• America’s Alienation: The hosts discuss a recent summit in China, where Xi, Putin, and Modi appeared united, and the U.S. stands increasingly alone, alienating allies like India and driving Europe to make independent security arrangements.
• Post-American World:

  “Trump happening once can be just bad luck, but twice means that the character of the American people can no longer be relied upon… The rest of the world is moving on.” (JVL, [30:24])

• America’s Fading Influence: Even authoritarian adversaries are not eager to count Trump’s America among their ranks, preferring to set the U.S. aside.

5. The Surreality of Political Life

• Democracy or Dictatorship? The hosts joke (with dark undertones) about tracking Trump’s health like Sovietologists tracked Politburo members, given the secrecy and defensiveness of official reports—“the Kremlin of 1980” ([26:10]).
• Giuliani’s Bizarre Accident: The podcast ends with a comically skeptical analysis of Rudy Giuliani’s “heroic” intervention in a domestic violence case, followed by a highly dubious car accident and a suspiciously vague press release ([36:28]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Institutional Ruin:
  • “I just don’t see how you unwind [this].” — JVL ([08:37])
  • “Losing an independent rule of law federal judicial system is a pretty key cornerstone of liberal democracy.” — Tim ([09:49])
• On Systemic Decay:
  • “This feels like lighting the fuse on something that we don’t know what happens when the fuse finally goes off.” — JVL ([07:00])
• On Public Health and Anti-science:
  • “The inertia is to burning things down, right? Like Trump, no matter how much he wants to take credit for this, it’s like the people with the power and the momentum are the cranks.” — Tim ([15:14])
• On Foreign Policy:
  • “Europe is preparing to go without us… They are in the process of making alternative security arrangements that will lead to alternative economic arrangements.” — JVL ([32:21])
• On Trump’s Personal Authoritarian Envy:
  • “We are going to have an American president watching a Chicom military parade with envy because that’s the world we live in now.” — JVL ([35:31])
• On Giuliani’s Press Release:
  • “This is the fishiest car accident story since the Tiger Woods golf club thing.” — JVL ([37:56])
  • “Maybe the security is being provided pro bono, Tim.” — JVL ([37:51])
  • “If it unfolded in the way that has been presented to us, Rudy wouldn’t shut up about it.” — JVL ([39:25])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:52] – Introduction to JVL’s “dark” recent writing and start of democracy/autocracy discussion
• [03:22] – Reflecting on early Trump era expectations vs. disturbing realities now
• [05:07] – Explanation of aggressive red state initiatives and their parallels to pre–Civil War politics
• [08:42] – Deep dive into the difficulty of restoring broken institutions (DOJ focus)
• [13:27] – Inside the CDC, COVID policies, and anti-vaccine politics
• [22:21] – Exploring the idea that government data and public trust are irreparably damaged
• [26:06] – Bizarre reality of “Kremlinology” applied to U.S. presidential health
• [30:24] – Analysis of America’s global standing as the world reacts to continual Trumpism
• [34:30] – Critique of U.S. strategy driving India toward China and Russia
• [36:28] – The segment on Rudy Giuliani’s incoherent and suspicious accident press release

Tone & Style

• Darkly humorous: The hosts routinely use black humor and mockery to cope with and underline the seriousness of political breakdown.
• Candid, unsparing, but realistic: Neither Tim nor JVL feigns optimism where none is seen, although occasional attempts at hope are quickly qualified or self-deprecating.
• In-the-know, insider referencing: Frequent callbacks to previous podcasts, newsletters, and Bulwark community content.

Conclusion

This episode, though shot through with bursts of gallows humor, is an urgent, sobering analysis of the deep damage sustained by American democratic institutions and the apparent normalization of political and institutional wrongdoing. JVL and Tim repeatedly return to the theme that once institutional trust and stability are lost, their recovery is anything but certain—often impossible—leaving both the U.S. and its allies to contemplate a new, risk-laden world. The episode is a must-listen for anyone concerned about the trajectories of democracy, public trust, and America’s place in the world.