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- [00:13]
Tim Miller
Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. Delighted to welcome to the show co host of Breaking Points and Crystal Kyle and Friends. Somebody that we're long overdue to have on the pod, to be honest, someone who's, I think career bio should mention, a pretty important turn on the cycle. One of my favorite afternoon MSNBC shows, it's Crystal Ball.
- [00:37]
Crystal Ball
You were a cycle watcher.
- [00:38]
Tim Miller
I loved the cycle.
- [00:41]
Crystal Ball
We had fun. It was a more innocent time.
- [00:43]
Tim Miller
It was you, it was Ture, it was Ari Melber. My old girl Abby Huntsman was on for a little bit.
- [00:50]
Crystal Ball
That's right.
- [00:50]
Tim Miller
Who else is there?
- [00:51]
Crystal Ball
So originally, the original crew was instead of Abby and Ari, it was Steve Kornacki who got pulled very quickly to replace Chris Hayes on his weekend show originally. And then Chris Hayes went to primetime and SE cup and then she moved to cnn. Abby came in.
- [01:09]
Tim Miller
That's right. When I was watching it originally. Well, I feel like you guys are ahead of your time. You know, there was some, like, a little heterodox arguing kind of show. I don't know. I feel like MSNBC should probably bring something like the Cycle back. Rachel Cutler doesn't listen to me. And it's now it's called out. All right, we're going to do some news, we're going to do some victory laps, and then maybe we'll hash out a couple disagreements, maybe on some lefty stuff. All right. On the news front this morning, Trump has canceled the nomination hearing for Jay Clayton, who he had nominated to be the head of dni. This is not traditional. Usually the Senate Majority Leader gets to decide the scheduling on what happens on the Hill for these sorts of nominations. But Trump is mad at John Thune and the other senators for being mean to him about the Iran war stuff. They're mad because they were mean to him about the Bill Pulte nomination. And so he basically said, f you, I'm going to pull back the Jay Clayton nomination. We are going to make Bill Pulte the acting dni, and you guys can suck it, basically. So that's the state of affairs.
- [02:14]
Crystal Ball
Yeah. Bill Pulte is a genuinely nefarious character who's been at the scene of many Trump era crimes, including using supposed mortgage fraud allegations to go after Trump opponents. And he's also, of course, completely unqualified for the post of Director of National Intelligence. So it makes sense that Trump would want him there because he's first and foremost a toady and a loyalist who would have no business anywhere in Any administration other than this one, where basically sycophancy and your ass kissing abilities and ability to stir up trouble for Trump opponents is the top and primary qualification.
- [02:51]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I mean, I think that that is a particularly nefarious place to put him. Right. As Director of National Intelligence.
- [02:58]
Crystal Ball
Oh, of course.
- [02:59]
Tim Miller
And like Trump's bleat was like the Magna Carta explaining this. And he's like giving all kinds of.
- [03:05]
Crystal Ball
I had a lot of trouble following.
- [03:06]
Tim Miller
Yeah, he's giving lots of cockamamie reasons it's not worth going into. So you have to do some Kremlinology. And I'm unsure whether Trump is just absolutely committed to having Bill Pulte in there for a little bit so he can cause trouble, or whether this is like Trump the toddler lashing out at Senate Republicans because they have been not showing a ton of spine, but bucking him somewhat, both on the Pulte nomination and with some commentary on the emerging Iran deal. The one thing that happened basically was that FISA had expired last week and there was a bipartisan group of senators who was just like, basically, we're not going to reauthorize FISA with Bill Pulte running the dni. You can't trust this person with these kinds of powers. There's some interesting subplots to that. So what Trump is now saying is like, no FISA without the SAVE act, and I'm not gonna give you a responsible dni. And, you know, at some level, I kind of wonder if the crystal ball faction of the Democratic Party look at this and are kind of like, okay, bro, fine. No fisa. That's fine.
- [04:05]
Crystal Ball
No fisa. No Save America Act. Yeah, we'll take it. I mean, the consequences for potential election rigging are unsettling. You know, I don't know what he has planned. They were pushing this new rule with the that they weren't going to deliver any mail in ballots for states that refused to turn over their voter rolls to the federal government. So an attempt to bully states. Many of them are already in litigation against the federal government saying, no, we don't have to turn over our voter rolls to you. So there is a lot of shenanigans going on. And, you know, with Tulsi Gabbard showing up in Fulton county and doing that whole whatever that was, you know, he's been involving the intelligence community in whatever they're trying to do to tilt the playing field in the midterm election. So it's definitely unsettling from that perspective because certainly Bill Pulte has absolutely no scruples or morals whatsoever. You know, on the political side, it's kind of interesting. Trump has successfully taken out a few Senate Republican senators who crossed him in mild ways. Cassidy is now a lame duck. Tom Tillis is now a lame duck. So you've got a handful Cornyn, who
- [05:13]
Tim Miller
barely even crossed him, but he fucked him anyway.
- [05:16]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, Cassidy, too, barely crossed him and voted for RFK Jr even though he clearly had a lot of reluctance around that, in any case. So you've got a few now who either are in very difficult contests, like Susan Collins up in Maine, or they're on their way out. So they're in kind of a potential YOLO mode. So he may not have as much hold and compliance from the Senate Republicans as he used to. Now, the vast majority of them are going to continue to kiss his ass and do whatever he wants and embarrass and humiliate themselves in all the way that that are required in the Republican Party these days. But there might be a slight degree more of dissent that there was previously. And that also ties in with the fact that he is just, like, dismally unpopular on every level and especially on economic issues.
- [06:00]
Tim Miller
You also have Mitch McConnell, who is like, literally dying in the Senate right now.
- [06:04]
Crystal Ball
Is he out of the hospital? Yeah. What is going on with him?
- [06:07]
Tim Miller
He's been in a wheelchair. I feel like there's been kind of not a lot of coverage of it. Like, we're a little bit into Dianne Feinstein territory for some reason. I don't know. I think Hill reporters don't want to embarrass them or something. But, yeah, I mean, according to Joe Pero and Argon Hill, he's been going around in wheelchair for. For a couple weeks now, and he's got really bad. All the stuff that you see on Trump's hands that is kind of mild, you know, like, he's got discoloration on his legs and his hands, and it seems not good.
- [06:36]
Crystal Ball
You remember when he had, what, two different instances where he would just freeze on camera and then they were like, no, he's fine. Like, I don't think so. I don't think that's a fine, healthy thing to do. But, yeah, I mean, it's crazy that you do have. Thank good God that, you know, you guys and drop site and TMZ now are on Capitol Hill and you don't follow these rules of decorum, which are really just meant to protect powerful people, because, yeah, the American people have a right to know whether their representatives are like, with it cognitively and doing anything able to, you know, understand the issues and cast votes and show for work. You still got this. This Tom Keene character in New Jersey. Republican congressman who's been absent for months.
- [07:18]
Tim Miller
He's missing.
- [07:18]
Crystal Ball
Completely missing. Won his primary while completely missing in action. Zero transparency. One of his aides said something, something ominous, like, where Tom is, there's no cameras. That's the most that we've heard about it. So I don't know what's going on there.
- [07:32]
Tim Miller
Yeah, that one is wild. There was a really good, like, substack of a guy who went to some island off of Connecticut where he heard Tom Keene was. And it's like, only a rich person's island. He couldn't find him. Anyway, Tom Keene's still missing. I want to go the Trump corruption stuff and we can get some giggles about and, you know, Even though it's $13 million of our money, we can still kind of laugh about it. That the reflecting pool, the beautiful blue reflecting pool that we had a full renovation on, you know, because Mr. Trump wanted it to look nice and pretty for his birthday party and for the 250 celebration. It was blue for, like, 36 hours. And now the algae is back. And, you know, if you put a still water, large pool in the middle of a swamp, this is going to happen. You know, it wasn't that the past presidents didn't try to make the park pretty because it couldn't, because they loved the green pool. It's just like, I live in Louisiana. It's like, this is what it looks like if you have stagnant water sitting somewhere. So the pool is now green again. We had our guy Brendan was down there yesterday. They're like dumping hydrogen peroxide in there. I mean, this doesn't really matter in the grand scale of things of all the other stuff. But it's related to his corruption and waste and megalomania. So I guess there's that completely.
- [08:50]
Crystal Ball
No, it's a perfect, like, little mini emblem. Not to mention the, like, oh, you're gonna drain the swamp jokes write themselves. They're almost too cliche to even bring up. Like, you literally filled the swamp. Congratulations. Because you take something that was, again, very minor in the scheme of things but was a problem. Like, the reflecting pool, had an issue. Trump, because of the color that he painted it and insisted on painting it without asking anyone for advice on, like, he. Do we actually clean this up? Makes it worse. So take something that's a problem, make it way worse, and then you Throw sprinkle a little corruption on top of it. Let me make sure it's a no bid contract and I pad the margins and give it to a friend so that they can, you know, participate in this whole thing. And then, of course, the. The narcissism of how a lot of his primary focus is on these projects that, you know, physical building projects, so that he can leave his imprint, his mark on the world, like a dog pissing on their territory. You know, whether it's that, whether it's the ballroom, whether it's the Arc de Trump, and even, I think it ties in with his whole approach to Iran, how he decided to enter into this illegal, immoral, disastrous war in the first place because he wanted to be the guy who did the thing on Iran. And now, you know, coming out of it, I think he probably is persuaded on the other side, oh, you're going to be the one that leaves this legacy of peace in the Middle east, which is how his dopey vice president selling it.
- [10:08]
Tim Miller
And the other part of it, that he wanted it done in time for the birthday party, in time for the 250 celebration, which is now a Trump rally. How are you processing and handling that? The idea that he's just like, the 200, 150th anniversary of America is a Trump rally. Is breaking points even gonna cover it? Does breaking points even like America? I guess. I mean. No, I meant the actual day, the celebration. Are you just gonna check it off? You might not be offended because you're like, who cares? Actually, you weren't that excited about it in the first place.
- [10:31]
Crystal Ball
I don't know myself. I won't speak for everybody at breaking points. I love the ideals of America, right? The rights, the freedom, the pluralism. And watching the World cup or watching the Olympics and thinking about the idea of this nation that was never conceived in blood and soil, that meant to be this pluralistic, multi ethnic democracy. I think that's incredible. I think that's aspirational. You know, that is what I love and admire about this country, why I'm so deeply offended by this administration who stands against all of those things. So, yeah, it's part and parcel of the way that he has personalized the presidency, sought to give himself the powers of a king, sought to insulate himself from any criticism whatsoever, is, you know, completely disallowed, which is how he's gotten himself in and up us and the world into utterly disastrous situations. So, you know, we will, we. We covered the UFC stuff, of course. You know, we'll we'll cover the aspects of it that are relevant. Do I think it's the most important thing in the world? No. But I do think it's emblematic of his approach to the world and how he just makes everything gross and bad and corrupt.
- [11:42]
Tim Miller
I love that. You're stirring. You're stirring my spirit with some pluralism talk. Crystal, One more thing on this front is the ballroom story from the Post. So the timeline, just to bring people up to speed, last June when he said he was gonna do the ballroom, it was gonna be compliments of Trump. They bring in the bulldozer, they tear down the east wing, they don't get approval. He's like, don't worry about this. Patriot donors are gonna contribute funding to this. It's not gonna be you guys at all. In November, he told reporters that not one penny is being used for the federal government. Fast forward to now. The whole project has ballooned to 600 million from the 200 million donation. Now it's a $600 million project, and according to internal documents acquired by the Post, taxpayers are expected to pay more than 300 million, half of it. So we have a totally just destructed east wing in rubble on the White House lawn, and now we're footing the bill. So you got the corruption and the crypt and the taxpayer waste altogether.
- [12:44]
Crystal Ball
Yeah. And neither way is great, right? I mean, if donors are funding it, that's also a problem.
- [12:49]
Tim Miller
And a bunch of those donors have gotten contracts. That was also part of the story. Right? Like a bunch.
- [12:53]
Crystal Ball
Of course, yeah. They. Oh, they'll, I'll give you a million for your ballroom. And then, you know what, contracts are going to flow to them through the government's coffers, which also ends up being, you know, on the backs of the taxpayer. So really, the taxpayer is paying either way. But yeah, it just becomes another funnel for corrupt dealings for him when it's the donor way. But yeah, taxpayers are. This is not a priority for, for taxpayers. This is one of the areas where Republicans were even a bit resistan. And I'm like, I don't know if we really can get away with funding this. And I know when you're dealing with a gigantic federal government budget, it's easy to become blase about like a few hundred billion dollars. Who cares? But I heard actually Dave Smith, who's a libertarian, putting it in perspective in a way that I thought was very compelling and very important, which is like, I live in a relatively small town. You know, my kids go to public school here. The public schools Here struggle to pay their teachers competitive salaries. So we're not constantly losing them to Northern Virginia where they have a hard, you know, wealth and larger tax base and are able to pay people better. Imagine what like a few million dollars would do in a place like this, right? There's a lot of.
- [13:58]
Tim Miller
You could probably use some new facilities at the school.
- [14:00]
Crystal Ball
Absolutely. We are, you know, really in need of some new schools. We could use a rec facility. Like, there's all kinds of things a teacher pay, like I said before that we could use. It was a big deal they're putting in a sidewalk so kids don't risk their lives crossing the street to the sheets. That's like our big capital investment here. And so, you know, when you think of it in those terms for local communities, that money could make so much difference. And instead it's going to his ego project. And it's not just, I think about his ego and these monuments to himself. I think also as he approaches the end of his life, he's very fearful about his mortality. He continually talks about how it's going to be this bunker, how they're going to have a medical hospital, et cetera. And so I think that's also part of his obsession. But the Washington Post, I think, were the ones who also did the analysis about how much he talks about it. And it's not just our Trump derangement. Like, it literally is the thing. If you analyze the words that he says, it is the thing he talks about the most. It truly is the thing he is most obsessed with him and saying.
- [15:01]
Tim Miller
We think it might be an ADU for him. You know, after 2028, he's hoping to get JD or Don Jr. Or Marco in there and then he can kind of live in the bunker. They go back and forth between the bunker.
- [15:13]
Crystal Ball
Can you imagine that?
- [15:14]
Tim Miller
You know, go back and forth between the bunker and Mar a Lago. You know, you need him around. Kind of like how you have the in laws in the in laws suite.
- [15:20]
Crystal Ball
Anyway, just with Trump popping up from the basement, that's a terrifying thought.
- [15:27]
Tim Miller
All right. Eating healthy is sometimes a little harder than I want it to be here in New Orleans. You know, I'm a healthy eater by nature, but my surroundings are very tempting for delicious butter filled fried foods. And so I find myself indulging in them. And it's also creating a lot of content around here. And so my cooking is down a little bit. And what I really need is healthy options to cook for the family. That's easy. And you know, who's Doing it. It's our guys at Wild Alaskan. When it comes to healthy eating, having something easy, filling and genuine and enjoyable makes it way easier to stay consistent. That's where our friends at Wild Alaskan come in. Wild Alaskan Company offers the best way to get wild caught. High quality seafood delivered to your door on your schedule. Each Wild Alaskan box comes with individually portioned fillets, vacuum sealed, easy to prep, I can vouch, and great for any meal, no matter how quick or elevated. All fish is quick frozen, fresh from the Alaskan waters, which helps lock in its texture, flavor and key nutrients like omega 3s. I enjoy that Pacific cod. It's easy to just pull out of the freezer, let it thaw, pop it in to the oven for delicious dinner, do a stir fry with it. We're going to do some fish tacos. I should have done fish tacos yesterday. Actually, it was Taco Tuesday. Oh well, we'll get to that soon. Wild Alaskan Co. Is so confident that their fish is the best that they offer a 100% satisfaction and money back guarantee. So you can try your first box risk free. Go to wildalaskin.com bulwark for 35 bucks off your first order of Premium Wild Caught Seafood. That's wildalaskin.com Bulwark for 35 Bucks off your first order. Thanks to Wild Alaskan Company for sponsoring this episode. I want to talk about a stupid war. One thing that prompted us having this collab, Crystal, is you messaged me about how your husband, Kyle, I love that you're living the trad life, by the way. We kind of let that slip by. You're not in Northern Virginia. You're out in real Virginia. And this is popular on the MAGA right now where wives post pictures of themselves with their chickens.
- [17:34]
Crystal Ball
I just don't do it performatively. I just live my life, take my kids to school, soccer practice, gymnastics. I don't have to post on Instagram my apple pie I baked or whatever.
- [17:46]
Tim Miller
You maybe should though. It's just a little spoof. You should do an Instagram reel. That's like a trad life spoof. I would enjoy it anyway. You'd reach out and said, Kyle, who is also a radical leftist, you guys are united in your family. This is not a Mary Madeline James Carville situation. You guys are very aligned. And you're like, kyle says, you're really sounding like him. I was like, I don't know if I should take that. I forget if that was about the war or about my increasing openness to punitive taxation on the ultra wealthy. But on one of the topics, I
- [18:18]
Crystal Ball
think it might have been that one.
- [18:19]
Tim Miller
It might have been that one. I'm coming along a little bit. And so we've been totally aligned on the war stuff, in part. I don't think it has anything to do with ideology. I think it's because it was the stupidest fucking war imaginable. And anybody who wasn't blinded by their hatred of Iran or love of Donald Trump could see that this was a stupid plan from the jump. But we've landed here. We have this supposed memorandum of agreement. The text of it has been leaked to Bloomberg. Who the hell knows? They could change some of it between now and Friday. They could back out. Lots of stuff can happen. But I do think there are three items in the deal I just want to highlight. Number six is that the United States will undergo with its regional partners the creation of a plan for Iran reconstruction that would have financing of at least 300 billion. At least.
- [19:08]
Crystal Ball
Sure. I'm sure Kushner and Witkoff are gonna get their beaks wet with that one. I'm sure.
- [19:11]
Tim Miller
Oh, boy. I bet they're hoping to get it up above 300 billion. Think about the kind of real estate money they've got.
- [19:17]
Crystal Ball
Opportunities.
- [19:19]
Tim Miller
Yeah, the Jared Kushner rebuilt school for girls and golf course and hotel, and that's kind of where they're probably going. The United States undertakes that immediately after this MOU and until the date lifting of sanctions, we're going to issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products. So all our sanctions are off while we go through this MOU process. And then number 11 was the United States that said, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. So basically, to open the Strait of Hormuz, we are lifting sanctions, allowing them to sell their oil. We're going to allow them to get frozen or restricted funds that have been previously sanctioned because of their terrorism and support for terrorism. And the Kushner Wyckoff clan is going to work with the Iranians to rebuild the country. That doesn't seem like what the original goals of the operation were to me.
- [20:19]
Crystal Ball
Well, yeah, I mean, since we collapsed to the goal of the operation being to return the Strait of Forbooth to something approximating what it was prior to the war. No, look, we lost the war. I mean, that's the. The bottom line. We lost the war. It was a Disaster. It was illegal, it was immoral, it was horrific for Iran, it was horrific for civilians throughout the region. It's horrific for the United States, especially for the, you know, pro Israel neocon wing has to be the most aggrieved by the way that this is ultimately turning out. But what was available at the negotiating table with no bloodshed and no missiles flying is no longer available. So the, you know, Iranians are going to secure the gains that they want on the battlefield. And it was just a matter of time, a matter of how long would it take, how much pain would Trump have to sustain before he dealt with that new reality that was established by his failed war? So that's where we are. And I saw Stephen Chung, you know, the White House, whatever his communications, social media dude, saying that the text of the memo of understanding is not accurate. That's been put out now both by Bloomberg and by cnn. You're right, some of the details may change, but, you know, the outline of it sounds very much like what the Iranians have been insisting basically the entire time. We want our money which unfrozen, we want the sanctions lifted and we, we are going to control the Strait of Hormuz. Now, there's some semantics around whether they're going to charge a toll or an environmental responsibility fee or whatever it is, but there is going to be a new status quo there. And I think 10 years from now too, Tim, that the US will no longer be, you know, in the region with all of these bases the way that we have been, because what purpose are they serving at this point? You know, we had to pull our soldiers from our own bases, which were decimated in this failed, disastrous, idiotic, immoral war. And rather than serving as protection for those countries, they turn those countries into targets. So it creates a new reality.
- [22:22]
Tim Miller
Yeah, if you're the Kuwaitis, you got to be reconsidering some of this. Like, is it worth it?
- [22:26]
Crystal Ball
Of course. I mean, if you're uae, and I know they were very, you know, gung ho about a lot of this, but, you know, their economy is very heavily based on the idea that they're this sort of, you know, sanctuary for the global wealthiest.1% elite with and their hotels were getting, you know, drone struck. So are you going to be able to maintain that brand? There's a lot of places for the global elite to go. So it was quite damaging to the whole region.
- [22:51]
Tim Miller
The dark part of me, I don't like to submit to my dark side too often, but I had a moment of weakness Watching some of the Instagram influencer videos from Dubai, it was hard
- [23:04]
Crystal Ball
not to enjoy it, people.
- [23:07]
Tim Miller
I was supposed to be safe here. This was supposed to be my tax safe haven for the money that I grifted and stole from people all over the world.
- [23:15]
Crystal Ball
And we're going to live the highest. My money laundering was supposed to be safe here. Yeah, it was hard not to enjoy that. It's hard for me not to enjoy. Also the Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin.
- [23:25]
Tim Miller
Oh, we're getting there. I've got one question. Yeah, we need to earn the neocon tears. We got to earn it. So before we get there, where are you at on this? There is kind of an ongoing conversation. This is going to be happening now for a while. Whatever the supposed MOU will be Friday, 60 days from that is the end of ceasefire. There's going to be a lot of jockeying. The pro Israel lobby in particular, I think is going to do everything they can to try to scuttle the deal.
- [23:48]
Crystal Ball
No doubt.
- [23:49]
Tim Miller
People trying to convince Trump and they may succeed. Yeah, they may succeed. Yeah. There'll be people internal and external to the administration trying to get Trump back in. So there's a lot of jockeying ahead. And because of that, there's some on the left, like your colleague Ryan Grimm, Bernie's old former policy advisor Matt Dust was saying this that people need to chill out about. The Democrats need to chill out about calling Trump a wimp and saying he's been humiliated and like putting up the big L on the forehead because that is in some way in service of like a campaign to get him back into the war. And I disagree with that personally. I think that if the shoe was on the other foot, Fox would be, you know, making fun of Obama and talking about how wimpy he is and how he's an arugula eating bike rider and whatever. And I think that, like, Trump deserves that. Like he said, we are going to ask for unconditional surrender. And now Trump is surrendering. And I think the shine should come off his tough guy act. But at least understand the argument from the other side. How do you kind of hash that out and think how Democrats should handle this?
- [24:52]
Crystal Ball
I mean, I guess I don't think of it too much in, like, political strategic terms. I just think about it in terms of telling the truth about what the original sin was. Here is not now the inevitable deal which is going to improve Iran's position because they won the war. The original sin is the war.
- [25:10]
John Potter
Right.
- [25:10]
Crystal Ball
That's where the problem really lies. And that's where the criticism should go. So, for example, I saw your post about how this is a, quote, gift to the mullahs, which I don't know if you're trolling, I don't know if you're like relapsing. So Neo Conway.
- [25:23]
Tim Miller
It is a gift to the mullahs, is it not?
- [25:24]
Crystal Ball
It's not a gift. No, it's not a gift. It's what I mean, the mullahs are
- [25:29]
Tim Miller
stronger now than they were before the war. They're gonna have more money than they
- [25:32]
Crystal Ball
did before the mullahs. Framing is also very right wing coded.
- [25:35]
Tim Miller
But in any case, I mean, they're bad though. We can agree they're bad. Sure.
- [25:40]
Crystal Ball
But like Israel is, is the biggest terrorists in the region. We funded a genocide. Okay? So I'm not really feeling too confident in our ability to moralize about really any regime in the entire world.
- [25:53]
Tim Miller
But Tim, and Iran killed like 42,000 unarmed protesters earlier this year.
- [25:58]
Crystal Ball
I'm not here to like, I don't want to live in Iran. Right. I don't want to live in Islamic Republicans. But I also think that US bombing them, has that helped the protesters? No, I'm sure it's given them pretext to be able to crack down even more aggressively if that's what they wanna do. But the framing of it's a gift to the mullahs. It's not a gift. They won the war. This is what is going to be required to end the war. Is it a disaster? Of course. But the disaster comes from starting the war in the first place. I mean, really, the disaster comes from getting out of the JCPOA to begin with.
- [26:29]
Tim Miller
This.
- [26:29]
Crystal Ball
But there was a deal on the table before the bomb started flying that is significantly superior to what we are getting now. And that is a result of our hubris. That is a result of the fact that Trump did not take seriously that they could close the Strait of Hormuz. And, you know, now with regards to the nuclear negotiations, I think Iran could afford to be in a way much more generous, simply because the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz is in itself a sort of nuclear weapon. Because what is a nuclear weapon? It's about deterrence. Right. They have now demonstrated they have this incredible economic power. They are going to be much more of a force in the region, in the world. And no matter whether we give them the $300 billion reconstruction fund or not, there's no putting that toothpaste back in the tube. That's just the reality that has been sort of birthed by this entire disaster.
- [27:23]
Tim Miller
I agree with all of your assessment. I think that we can nitpick each other over our language choice of how to describe it. I think that the Iranian regime is certainly strengthened, whether we want to use the word gift or whatever. The mullahs that run Iran are stronger now than they were before because of all those reasons you laid out and because of the fact that our position is now weaker and they were a weakening regime, in addition to the fact that this deal is worse than the deal that was on the table. If you are of the view that it would be good for there to be regime change in Iran, regardless of putting aside whether or not you think we should be involved in that. But like, if you're the view that that would be good, like that's less likely now, right? Like their regime is stronger than it
- [28:03]
Crystal Ball
was before, perhaps that that may be true and very difficult to say. But you know, the government there is very unpopular. You know, it's not like people are enjoying the repression. Our sanctions have also been devastating though, to the people of Iran. I mean, that has been genuinely harmful to the entire population. And so. So in the same way that all our long term sanctions policy in Cuba has not succeeded in creating the regime overthrow that we thought that it would pressure it to do. There is a possibility here that with the sanctions lifted, where the US Is no longer an excuse for the failings and incompetence of the government, that you actually have more of a shot of some sort of a change. But regardless, that's up to them, right? That's not up to us. And when we get in and try to do it, we just make life vastly more miserable for the people of that country. If we haven't learned that in Afghanistan and Iraq and Syria and Libya, I don't know when we're going to learn that lesson.
- [28:59]
Tim Miller
I'm not optimistic about that. But fair. Americans are carrying over a trillion dollars in credit card debt at rates north of 23%. Insane. That is more than $200 billion a year in interest paid mostly by households who happen to be sitting on the largest pool of untapped home equity in U.S. history. Think about that for a second. You own a home, you've built real equity in it. And yet when you need capital for a remodel, for a debt consolidation, for something your household budget didn't plan for, the financial system routes you to a 23% unsecured card instead of letting you borrow against the asset you already own. That is one of the quietest taxes in the American middle class and the big banks are not racing to fix it. They even built the first home equity line of credit issued on a Visa card. The same swipe that used to cost you 23% now costs you a fraction because it is secured by the value you have already built. That is hundreds of dollars a month back in your pocket. And if you have been putting off a remodel, here's the case for getting on it. A well skipped renovation is one of the few purchases that actually pays you back since it makes the house worth more. With Aven, you can check your offer at no cost with no impact to your credit score. There are no hidden fees and because you own a home, you qualify for a rate the credit card simply cannot offer. Go to aven.com to discover your offer. That's a v e n.com aven stop overpaying for capital Aven accounts are arranged by aven Financial, Inc. NMLS 2042345. Aven accounts are issued and held by Coastal Community Bank Member FDIC Equal Housing Lender NMLS 462289 Avon Cards are issued pursuant to a license from Visa USA Inc. Terms and conditions apply, subject to credit and property approval. Visit aven.com for more details. Let's move to the tiers. Let's move to our agreement. When I had your colleague Sager on, I don't know, three months ago, the start of the war, one thing he was kind of surprised, I think, by how much I agreed with him on this because of my I am more sympathetic, as people can tell, I think, from this last conversation about creative ideas, creative solutions for spurring freedom around the world than maybe I think some who believe that the US should just mind their own business are, and I maintain more of a globalist perspective on that. That said, the particulars of this war was obviously stupid and it was in particular the pro Israel right that was pushing this and pushing Trump to get in it. I'm not saying that they were like, you know, puppet masters behind the scenes, but that they were arguing for it and that the biggest supporters of the kind of neocon right and the pro Israel right and the commentariat were the biggest supporters of the war, as you mentioned earlier, Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin, et cetera. On the next level, we went through a long list of the tears and I don't want to do that right now because a lot of them are still trying to stay in their good graces. Like I watched Ben Shapiro and it just didn't really Satisfy me. I want him to actually cry about how bad it is. But he still wants to kind of like play both sides a little bit. So he was being very measured. The folks at the commentary podcast were not measured. Yes, they were very, very upset. And so I listened to the entire podcast, which I've not done for a while because we're all fallen and we can enjoy Schadenfreude. They wanted the war. They thought it was going to help Israel. They thought it meant that Trump was gonna be more on their side than he had been. It has not worked out how they planned. And I wanna play two select choice clips for you. Let's listen to I believe this is John Potter. It's on yesterday's commentary podcast.
- [32:21]
John Potter
I honestly don't know if it could be worse, because if this war ends the way I fear it's going to, America is going to be in a strategically, tactically and militarily worse position than it was under Biden and before Trump came back into power. That is to say, he made a choice to test America's resolve, America's ability to win war, to exert its will to change the nature of the map. And he has choked, he has chickened out, he has bled himself dry. And better that we shouldn't have done it in the first place.
- [33:00]
Crystal Ball
True. Better that we shouldn't have done it
- [33:01]
Tim Miller
in the first place.
- [33:02]
Crystal Ball
How about that?
- [33:03]
Tim Miller
I do like to have it. How? He just says plainly that the point at the beginning was we are going to exercise our will on the Middle east and change the map. And it's like, have you people been awake for the last quarter century? Honestly, this is where people are like, tim, you switch.
- [33:20]
Crystal Ball
I mean, it really is mind blowing.
- [33:21]
Tim Miller
Flip flopped. I was like, yeah, because I lived through the fucking Iraq War, okay? Because I'm a human on earth, right?
- [33:27]
Crystal Ball
I'm capable of learning, right? I'm capable of absorbing new information and changing my mind. I mean, it really was crazy. And it was, you know, to go back to the beginning of this whole thing, it was almost insulting how little effort was put into the propaganda effort. You know, it was just like every day we're getting some different rationale for why we're going to war. It's regime change. It's not regime change. It's about the nukes. It's about the, you know, the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, they didn't even go through the high minded effort that we were put through in advance of the Iraq war. So it really was insulting, which is part of why it was so unpopular from the beginning, which normally look, unfortunately, Americans love a good war. Love to see that you, you know, our men and women go and drop bombs and go usa. This one. There was basically none of that from the beginning. People were like, what is wrong with you? Why did you think that this would go well? And so there is a kind of, you know, look, I don't want to laugh. I do want to laugh a lot and I want to enjoy it and I am enjoying it. But I will also say it's entirely possible that the John Podoritz and the Barry Weiss and the Benjamin Netanyahu's and the Bezales Mochridges of the world end up getting their way. Lebanon is really central to this level of unrestricted.
- [34:41]
Tim Miller
Mike Pence was on CNN last night trying to take for Trump to get back in.
- [34:45]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, absolutely. And so look, it's entirely possible that they end up getting their way and that over the next 60 days when these negotiations are going on, they go back to bombing in Lebanon, Iran responds and we're back off to the races again. So there's not a mission accomplished for us either. But you know, either, either way, let's say that happens. Let's say they go back to war already because this has been so much more difficult, so much more costly, so much more impossible than what the Israelis were trying to sell to Trump and what Trump ultimately, you know, bought into and believed. It's very difficult to see how there is a positive outcome from their worldview and perspective. You know, Israel's goal was to become the sole regional hegemon. And now if anything approximating this deal comes together, no, there is going to be another power in the region that has the ability and has proven themselves willing to check Israel in all of their, you know, insane greater Israel ambitions. So they're going to have to completely change their approach. They have burnt some credibility with Trump, obviously. They've burnt tons of goodwill with, you know, the Democratic Party's in completely different place. Most of the country is in a completely different place. And so it's not existential for Israel, but it is for the way that they have been conceiving their own security priorities in the region, which is that they can, they can brook no even theoretical threat from anyone around them.
- [36:15]
Tim Miller
I have one more tears video to get to. But on this point, just while you're mentioning it, I have seen, I think, some legitimate criticism of the anti Israel left from, from some on in kind of the more liberal Jewish sphere. Their point and their kind of knocking down a strawman. But I think a real one is essentially that there were a lot on the populist left, however you want to describe it, who are talking about how Israel controls us and Israel got us into this war because they're in the White House and there's this cabal of Bibi and Israel and Mossad and they have blackmail and there's Jews out there in the world, and that's why we're in this war. And it turns out that's not really what happened. Israel is not as all powerful as some made them out to be, and that there were some, you know, conspiracy theorizing that has, that has not borne out. How would you kind of react to that?
- [37:06]
Crystal Ball
Let me say a few things about that. First of all, in terms of the left, I just don't agree that there was any like, oh, the Jews are controlling. No, I think it's very specific criticism on Israel. I think, you know, the people, you know, that I would consider truly on the left have been very careful about making that distinct, distinguishing between this state of Israel and the influence peddling that they do in Washington. And the Jewish people who, you know, most American Jews do not support the current status quo with Israel, it's actually the, like, Christian Zionists who are much stronger and more solid block in favor of, you know, endless support for Israel and Netanyahu and whatever they want to do. So I would just draw that distinction in particular. But in a sense, I do agree with you. I think there was far too much of like, oh, Trump got dragged into this. I always objected to the idea that there hasn't been a longstanding empire interest in supporting Israel, that. Or that Trump isn't his own man and isn't making his own decisions. Now, as you put it earlier, does the, you know, pro Israel, both Americans and the actual Israelis, were they very much in favor of this war? Were they the strongest contingent pushing for this war? Absolutely. And we have statements from Marco Rubio, for example, saying basically like, oh, well, they threatened they were going to bomb and we felt like we had to get into the war. So their influence was important here. But at the end of the day, we are the superpower. Trump is making the decisions. He is driving the train and he is responsible. The last thing I would say, though, just in terms of, oh, this proves that the, you know, the Israel lobby stuff was fake and they have no impact. I certainly was never arguing that that means that no American president will ever break with Israel, because we know that's not true. Obama did it, you know, the jcpoa.
- [38:45]
Tim Miller
I mean, Reagan did it on certain things.
- [38:47]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, Reagan did it. Actually, Republicans have been more likely to in the past. George H.W. bush. Reagan did. So we know American presidents can break with Israel. That doesn't mean that there isn't tremendous pressure, that there isn't tremendous influence. And you know that that is an important part of the American political story.
- [39:04]
Tim Miller
I want to play the second clip mostly because it was very revealing of kind of the mindset of a lot of Trump supporters and because most of them want to stay in his good graces. Still, they don't go so far as to say this directly. So I guess in some ways a slightly backhanded kudos to Eli Lake and John Potteritz for just saying this directly. I want to play for you a clip where they talk about how Trump's corruption was part of the reason why we got into such a shitty situation here in the Middle East. Let's listen.
- [39:38]
John Potter
Wait a second. The reason why we are, you know, we lost this war and we have such a strategic setback after it looked like we were so close to changing the Middle east is because of corruption, which is going to be. I mean, I would imagine that's the theme of 2027. I mean, that's what's going to happen. So they're, I mean, look. Yeah, I mean, that's because it's true. Yeah, it's true. Why does Trump say we? I love gutter. Because they're giving him a plane.
- [40:11]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [40:12]
John Potter
Because they're bribing his sons. Because they're bribing his friends, sons. We know this. We all know this. Everybody knows it. And when that wasn't having an effect on larger scale policy, by which I mean geopolitical, the choices that Trump was making geopolitically, not that you could overlook it because you shouldn't overlook corruption, but it was like they were bribing him and he was doing whatever it was that he wanted to do anyway.
- [40:47]
Tim Miller
It's like Trump was getting bribed. You know it, we know it, everybody knows that Trump was getting bribed. But as long as he was also doing what Israel wanted, it was kind of like, well, whatever, we'll just kind of look the other way on this for two seconds. But now that he's not anymore, we can all just say it bluntly that Trump is corrupt. It's like, well, no shit, welcome aboard. Water's warm.
- [41:06]
Crystal Ball
I love that. Well, I love him trying to be like, well, previously when he was doing what Israel wanted, that had nothing to do with Miriam Adelson giving him $100 million. His campaign, that was just organically what he wanted out of the goodness of his heart. But now it's all being driven by the corruption. Like, okay, sure, yeah, we really, really gonna buy that one. But yeah, I mean, there is, it's going to be very interesting to see how the next 60 days unfold because I think this thing is, I think it's very tenuous. You know, I think it's probably more likely than not that this, you know, it's very difficult to get through these negotiations. The Netanyahu, you know, not just the, the state of Israel, but Netanyahu specifically is in deep political trouble. I think he is likely to lose his election probably based on what a disaster this is. The quote, unquote, moderates in Israel are attacking him from the war hawkish side saying we should have done more in Iran, you shouldn't be bending to the U.S. blah, blah, blah. So, you know, I think there's, there's very little that's off the table in terms of what he personally would do to resurrect and preserve his own political career. So it continues to be a very dangerous moment.
- [42:19]
Tim Miller
I want to end with democratic talk. But just one more thing. I feel like one thing that resonates with people about independent media and that I appreciate about you guys is that you guys are actually mad about a lot of stuff. Genuinely mad. It's not a game, it's not performance. We're not doing, you know, red, who's up, who's down? And I think that a lot of people.
- [42:41]
Crystal Ball
And now we're in the green room and we're all just buddies.
- [42:43]
Tim Miller
Yeah, yeah. No, it's like, it's one thing, it's a connection I do have. Even when we disagree on stuff, it's just like. No, actually, when I saw Mercedes slap in the green room, I told her to eat my ass. You know what I mean? Until. Yeah, like, this is not like, they're not my buddies. I moved. You're in Virginia. I moved to Louisiana. We're not part of the game. And so I'm just wondering the biggest picture, you know, like, you have to cover the stuff every day and like be in the weeds. I feel this, like looking, you know, from, you know, the 30,000 foot level at the last year and a half. I'm just kind of wondering, like, what has made you the maddest that the administration has done?
- [43:18]
Crystal Ball
Oh, that's a big, big question. I mean, I have to, I have to think that certainly the, the war has to be towards the top just because you're, you're playing with people's lives, you know, I mean, you're playing with the entire globe. You're playing with people's economic lives. And to me, it's, it's psychopathic and it's, it's horrible. I am actually optimistic that the fallout from this, you know, this is not to diminish any of the dire consequences. But, you know, I think it is a better situation for Iran to be able to check in Israel, and Israel have to actually live, you know, the way that other nations live and try to get along with their neighbors and not just, you know, trying to take over territory constantly and know that they're always going to have our support. I mean, we probably will continue to support them throughout the Trump administration. But, you know, I think that reckoning is important. There's a huge shift to renewable energy that is happening because countries are realizing
- [44:17]
Tim Miller
like, hey, we're keeping it in the ground.
- [44:20]
Crystal Ball
Yeah. Maybe relying on this precarious geopolitical, you know, situation here with the Strait of Hormuz wasn't the greatest idea. So the number of solar panels that are being shipped from China right now is off the charts. EVs, same thing. So, look, the U.S. is not going to be the world's hegemon. The U.S. i think, already is not the world's hegemon. There is going to be an adjustment. It could have been done in a way that was much less horrifying and brutal and deadly and, you know, terrible and shocking and all of those sorts of things. But I think this pushes us further along the path to grappling with that reality. At least that's my optimistic hope.
- [44:55]
Tim Miller
Look at you. Well, this is a difference between the Bulwark podcast and Breaking Points. I try not to do optimistic hope as much as possible.
- [45:02]
Crystal Ball
You have to be at your core, you have to be optimistic. Otherwise you can't cover politics. Because if it's just nihilism and nothing's ever going to change, then there are
- [45:12]
Tim Miller
a lot of nihilist. I'm earnest. Yeah, I'm earnestly pessimistic, I guess I would say. I don't know. I have short term pessimism. I think that the next two and a half years is going to be worse than people think. And then I have medium term optimism. I do think it's recoverable. I think sometimes you hear from people who are like, it's over. The democracy's over, the country's over. I Don't feel.
- [45:34]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, same.
- [45:35]
Tim Miller
I kind of have long term pessimism again. I'm pretty worried about AI and I'm kind of pretty worried about the trajectory. I sometimes wonder if this is like typical old man thing where you look at, at the youth and their technology and you say, I think the things are worse than it was when I was a kid. But I don't know. I do think things are worse.
- [45:54]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, no, I mean, I'm pretty much the same. The AI stuff is deeply concerning to me. And you know, on the point about is it an old man thing and the word just can't keep up with the kids tech, it's young people. I mean, by the polling and also by the response at these commencement ceremonies, they're the ones who are most concerned about the tech because they have the most exposure to it. But both in terms of they're using it the most so they understand it the most. But also when they're graduating and they're seeing I'm putting in resumes to a hundred different companies not getting a single callback, they're on the front lines of the economic fallout as well. So it makes sense that they would be the biggest opponents. And that's very different from any other technology that at least I'm familiar with in the modern age.
- [46:38]
Tim Miller
Okay, on the Dem stuff, here's my biggest critique, I think of the kind of populist left Dems. I'm interested how you would react to them it and that is that there's like this theory of the case that like the Democrats have not succeeded because they, you know, have been too much in the grips of, you know, the corporate elite and whatever, the bipartisan neocon, neoliberal global establishment. Like, is that a pretty decent summary and that like the thing to change is to be more anti corporate and more anti war machine. Is that a fair summary of kind of like the populist left critique of the Democratic Party?
- [47:17]
Crystal Ball
Ye, that's fair.
- [47:18]
Tim Miller
I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. Like, I think that it would probably be smart for the Democrats to be more populist on economics and, and, and regain the mantle of being more skeptical of American adventurism overseas. I think that probably would help them politically. It isn't ever paired with any moderation on any other issues where the Democrats are out of step with voters though. And I just, I've had a lot of them on. I had Sam Forstag on yesterday. He's a good guy. But I would like to have Graham on. I listen to him A lot I've had Zoran on. It's like all of the Democrats, no matter what wing of the party they're from, on cultural issues, like, sound like Kamala Harris, like, sound like Kamala Harris or even left of her, even, like on, on issues, whether it be crime, immigration, you know, gender roles, like all that stuff, abortion, like, on all of those issues, all Democrats are still in lockstep. And I think that there's a huge part of the country that is like, just doesn't agree with the Democrats on any of that. And I don't know that you can gain ground by just saying, hey, I'm anti billionaire, but I'm also, I have the same social and cultural policies as Clinton, Biden and Harris. What do you make of that critique?
- [48:33]
Crystal Ball
So I think there's some things that are worth grappling with there and I think it has some legitimacy that critique. A few things that I would point out. I mean, first of all, Graham Platner does buck the, you know, liberal line on guns. And I think he's a good case study because you're right. Other than that, no, he is out there defending trans people. He is very pro immigrant. He's been very outspoken about that. Wants to abolish ice, all of those sorts of things.
- [49:00]
Tim Miller
Hates cops. We've read his Reddit post.
- [49:02]
Crystal Ball
Hates cops, or at least did. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know what his latest views are on cops and criminal justice reform, whatever. But yeah, he, you know, he has leftist positions on most things. And there is even a contingent of LE leftists who agrees with him on the gun piece, by the way. But that's another story. For another, the socialist gun owners thing is a real thing. But in any case, a poll just came out that shows him winning, beating Susan Collins, who is the, quote, unquote, moderate. Although I don't think either you or I would call her a moderate, beating her handily among independents. Why is that? And Bernie? Same thing. Bernie never gave an inch on, you know, any of the cultural left wing issues. And yet he continues to be one of the most popular politicians in America, especially in his 2016 run. Won over a lot of independence. The reason, I think, is not because that magically makes everybody agree with you on issues that don't poll as well as things like taxing the billionaires. It's that people are willing to give you grace on some areas if they feel like, okay, but your real primary focus is like, like sticking it to these rich oligarchs and being concerned with my material interests first and foremost. So I think that there is more room for left wing cultural views, which in my opinion are the correct and moral and just ones when you have such a track record of putting first things first. Now, my Tim personal view of the party is that we've had the litmus test in all the wrong areas. So every party's gonna have litmus tests. Otherwise you're just like a random collection of people. Right.
- [50:34]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [50:35]
Crystal Ball
Our litmus tests have tended to be on those social, cultural issues. And anything goes when it comes to selling out to big corporations. I think it should be exactly the inverse. I do think we should have room for some different views on cultural issues. If you are, you know, if you have credibility and are truly there on the fighting, the oligarchy piece and you know, I lump like the APAC money, the big pharma, all that stuff into that, like that is your orientation, then I think there should be some room to maneuver on cultural issues. But to me, that's the polar opposite of what the Democratic Party has been in recent years.
- [51:13]
Tim Miller
Okay, I like that aspiration. We're not seeing any of it yet. I hear what you're saying about the independent voters, but when you look at. And polls. But if you look at actual election results, this is the other thing that I get frustrated on A lot of times. The big lefties in the online fighting are always like, we've tried it your way and we, we've lost. Like Kamala lost, Hillary lost.
- [51:32]
Crystal Ball
True.
- [51:32]
Tim Miller
And it's like, well, I guess, but like Biden won, Obama won, lost. Alyssa Slotkin won, Ruben Gallego won. Like there aren't really any examples of like leftist candidates winning in non blue states. And so I'm down to clown on trying it. Like maybe I'm open to the idea that maybe you're right, but there's like this hubris and like the intra coalition fighting that's like, we're obviously right. We tried your way and you lost. What's like. Well, not exactly. I mean that, I mean, Josh Shapiro won in Pennsylvania. We hadn't had an example of like a Bernie type person winning anywhere. Richard Ojeda ran in West Virginia, got killed. Joe Manchin won, you know, well, Richard
- [52:14]
Crystal Ball
Ojata outran his district. It is. Well, you can, you can go with Ojeda. It is a.
- [52:20]
Tim Miller
You know, we've American, we've Appalachianized it.
- [52:23]
Crystal Ball
Yeah, he's, he's Appalachianized it. But I mean, he did outrun his like the, our lean in his district by more than candidate in the entire
- [52:33]
Tim Miller
country, and so did Dan Osborne.
- [52:34]
Crystal Ball
And Osborne is a. Is a very interesting model. Right. And I think Osborne has a real shot this time around, even more so than he did last time. But I guess my, My view is not as much grounded in, like, it's the electorally superior way to go, because I think it's different. I think there are a lot of different factors, including, you know, Graham's going to have $300 million of attack dropped on his head. He's given them some things to work with. Abdul Al Said has a name that, given the Islamophobia in the country, may be a problem for him. There's a lot of things that go into this. My argument isn't so much an electoral horse race argument. It's that if we want to stop the fascist slide of the country, we have to do something different. And it's existential. I do think it's existential. So if we continue doing the thing that Democrats have been doing, which is this kind of palliative care managed decline where we'll be a little bit less bad than the other side, we're going to get more fascists in office. And I don't want that. I don't think that you want that either. So that's more of my focus than, you know, from the horse race perspective, though I do think that there are a lot of left populist candidates who can win and will win this time around. I'm more focused on what we need to deliver in order to get ourselves out of this cycle. And we've done it in the past. I mean, if you look to fdr, right. Part of the New Deal coalition was in. In one sense, it was a sort of moderation of like, okay, well, we don't want the communists, so let's do something that is, you know, more in the democratic socialist line of thinking. But also we, you know, we had a genuine fascist movement in this country that also needed to be stopped. And the thing that stopped it was not a sort of, you know, milquetoast neoliberalism. It was a. A muscular social Democratic vision that delivered huge majorities for the Democratic Party for years. So I think we can look to our own history to see what will succeed to actually stop the fascist slide that we're currently experiencing.
- [54:33]
Tim Miller
I like the palette of Caroline because there's some truth to that. That is a. You know, and I fight that against it myself because, like, my natural tendency is to incrementalism. And so. Because I just. That's like Part of my old small C conservative disposition. Like not like conservative in the Republican Party sense, but in the, just like changing things really fast is risky and you don't know what the downside effects are kind of. And I still do have that disposition where I'm like, I look at America, there are a lot of really bad things happening. I mean obviously this administration in particular, but the day to day lives of people are really challenging, particularly poor people. We should try to make their lives better on the other side. Like we could be at Russia or Iran or Hungary, you know what I mean? Like there's a lot, it could get a lot worse. And so you got to guard against all that stuff. But I hear you on that. That isn't inspiring to people and that's not how you bring new people into a coalition.
- [55:28]
Crystal Ball
Not only that, but I think we're both old enough to realize that as much as you try to hold on to a status quo, change is the only thing that's certain in life and in the life of, of nations as well. And I know you share a lot of the concerns about AI. I think AI is a tremendously powerful technology. Even if it's not, then we're talking about a massive bubble and a collapse that is going to lead to huge change. So change is coming whether we like it or not.
- [55:55]
Tim Miller
That's true.
- [55:55]
Crystal Ball
And so it's a matter of how are we going to make sure that that change delivers for ordinary people, make sure that we are, you know, sort of reestablishing our country in a way that is strong and where democracy is a real world word that meaning and not just a buzzword. I think that's, you know, when you find yourself sliding into those tendencies. Just remember that between the climate crisis and AI and the way the world is being reshaped before our eyes, change is coming no matter what.
- [56:24]
Tim Miller
One more on the cultural center move.
- [56:26]
Crystal Ball
Sure.
- [56:26]
Tim Miller
This is always like sensitive ground to tread because like I think that there's been a lot of really great parts about the awokening and I think that like we had a lot of great cultural steps and you know, like with my daughter in particular, like I see it day to day and like having you know, characters in books and you know, that, that represent her in like ways that she wouldn't have had 20 years ago. Like they're just, there are a lot of positives, there was some overreach and like as we look ahead to the Democrats and how to win in 2028, I do think it's important to like reckon with other things that went wrong in 2024. Besides, Kamala was too corporate or whatever. And I think she had a lot of California baggage. And I see this story come across yesterday, and it just like gives me hives when I think about Gavin Newsom in 2028. And the story is this, California had $33 million project for public utilities that was going to give contracts to LGBT owned firms. And to qualify, you must go through the certification program to prove that you're lgbt. And it's like, okay, well, granted, Donald Trump is giving away billions upon billions to his friends and fuck Donald Trump. But it's like, do we really want to run in 2028 on, like, you get special programs if you're gay and like, you have to go through a certification program to like prove that you're certified. I guess it's like, really?
- [57:43]
Crystal Ball
I like the concept of a government issued gay car. I do like that aspect of it. But I mean, but what you're pointing to here is because Gavin Newsom gives me hives just in general because he is that status quo Democrat and he does a very good job of like, rhetorically fighting against Trump. And so I think he's gotten some credibility with the Democratic base, but he is a very standard issue Democrat. And the truth of the matter is, is those sorts of like, you know, diversity programs and the word policing that didn't come from the left in the modern political context. That was an attempt to stop Bern Sanders by Hillary Clinton by saying, oh, no, I'm the real lefty, because, you know, just breaking up the banks. Well, that's not going to solve racism. That is much more of a sort of traditional liberal orientation. And I have the same problem with it that you do. I mean, I am a universal. I think that the most effective programs that have lifted all boats and made the country a better and more equal place are the ones that have taken a universal lens. Now, that is not to say that there aren't specific discriminatory harms that need to be addressed individually, but in general, that is very much my, my orientation. And I, you know, was someone that, during the Great Awokening, I was critical of it at the time, the word policing, the, you know, sometimes people do need are racist and shouldn't work in a certain place. You know, that's fine. But you know, the, like, all the cancellation campaigns, it was over the top.
- [59:15]
Tim Miller
And I'm down to call people out. The right wing is snowflakes. A lot of times they're like, oh, I can't say this Word. It's like, no, you can say whatever word you want. We're just gonna also call you racist.
- [59:22]
Crystal Ball
Just know that there are going to be social consequences for that. Like, you. You can say it. There's just also, people are gonna know that you suck as a human being now after you said it, and you can't cry about that. But, yeah, with Kamala, you know, I don't want to. I don't want to ignore the fact that I think as a black woman, there's an assumption that you. You get just labeled as like, oh, you must be a lefty. Even though Kamala Harris was not a lefty in my view, in any regard, but she had also dabbled in a lot of the awokening language that was not helpful to her at that point.
- [59:50]
Tim Miller
Like, you know, I think that most people just want, you know, to get government services and have the best person get the contract. You know, like, I have a buddy that is like 1/16th Native American that was getting Native American contracts with the federal government. And it's like, there's. Okay, there's some good intentions involved with all that, and there's going to be fraud in any system. Right. And so it's like, you know, sometimes the Republicans are going to blow stuff out of proportion, and I do want to be conscious of that. But, like, on the other hand, you know, we've all seen it with our eyes, like, examples of excess on this stuff. And I think that it's important to bring it up, up, because I've noticed, and we saw this around Biden and the age thing. Another thing I notice is that, like, Democrats, it's interesting. Not on Twitter, but everywhere else. If you're in a meeting with Democrats, temperamentally Democrats are nice. Like Republicans. And me, I've been in Republican meetings where, like, people were calling each other, like, nasty ass words back in the day when I was a Republican. And in Democratic meetings, even when people disagree, like, they're. It's just like, it's a temperamentally nicer bunch. And every once in a while, there's some value to being in the meeting and being like, you know, do we need to give 600 million to the gays and get a gay card? Can't we do some other nice things? Can't we just make sure that everybody has an equal chance to get the contract? That would be okay, too, anyway. I just think that would be a healthy progression for the coalition. All right. Anything else? You have any bones to pick with me? You want to get me back on anything?
- [61:17]
Crystal Ball
I think we picked them. I was mostly I wanted to get after the gift to the mullahs.
- [61:21]
Tim Miller
The gift to the mullahs. I stand by it. And that's good, Crystal, because there'd be a problem if we came away at the end, end of this podcast in total agreement. We would both have to do some reflecting on that, I think. I think it would call into question.
- [61:32]
Crystal Ball
But I do appreciate your journey, though, and I want to continue to encourage you on that journey.
- [61:37]
Tim Miller
Tim, thank you. I appreciate you. Crystal Ball. It's breaking points. She's also got a show with her fellow radical leftist husband Crystal Kyle and friends and we'll be doing it again soon. Everybody else will be back here tomorrow with another Trumper. Okay. We have to bring back just a good old fashioned never Trumper as kind of a cleansing, a palate cleanser after having Crystal Ball on. No. Just joking, baby. We'll see you soon. Everybody else will see you back here tomorrow. Great situation. Dirty water. The Borg podcast is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Lutz and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.