The Bulwark Podcast: Liam Donovan and Brendan Boyle — "The Great Grift"

Release Date: January 8, 2025

Hosts and Guests:

• Tim Miller – Host of The Bulwark Podcast
• Liam Donovan – Former Senate Republican aide, political analyst, lobbyist, and co-host of the Lobby Shop podcast
• Congressman Brendan Boyle – Democratic member of the House representing Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district, Ranking Member on the Budget Committee, and member of the Ways and Means Committee

Introduction and Overview

Tim Miller opens the episode by addressing recent wildfires in Southern California, emphasizing the personal impact and the upcoming climate-focused episode. He outlines the day's agenda, which centers on a deep dive into budget reconciliation—a critical legislative process affecting immigration, tax, and potential government shutdowns. [00:00-02:24]

Budget Reconciliation Explained

Liam Donovan is introduced to provide a foundational understanding of budget reconciliation.

• Definition and Purpose:

  • Donovan explains reconciliation as a legislative process designed to bypass the Senate filibuster, allowing bills to pass with a simple majority (51 votes) instead of the usual 60. This is particularly relevant for budget-related legislation.
  • Quote: "Reconciliation is a way to pass things in the Senate with a simple majority because of their goofy antiquated rules." [38:20]

• Historical Context:

  • The process was utilized during the Bush administration for tax cuts and has evolved to include spending, revenue, and debt limit adjustments.
  • Donovan highlights that reconciliation can only occur once per fiscal year and is constrained to specific budget-related areas.

• Current Application:

  • Miller and Donovan discuss the strategic use of reconciliation by Republicans to pass immigration measures, tax cuts, and other fiscal policies without needing Democratic support.
  • Quote: "You've got immigration budget stuff, government shutdown, tax extenders. It's all connected to this word reconciliation." [02:52]

Republican Strategies and Debates on Reconciliation

The conversation delves into the internal debates within the Republican Party regarding the best approach to leverage reconciliation.

• Internal Conflicts:

  • Donovan outlines the split between traditional fiscal conservatives like Jason Smith, who prioritize tax cuts, and the MAGA faction led by figures like Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon, who push for aggressive immigration enforcement and funding ICE.
  • Quote: "The more traditional Republican types, including Jason Smith... don't care that much about all the Sheriff Joe's." [17:23]

• Strategic Choices:

  • Republicans face a dilemma: combine multiple policy areas into one reconciliation bill to force unified support or attempt separate bills addressing distinct issues.
  • Miller suggests that bundling could coerce members into voting for unwanted policies, risking passage delays.
  • Quote: "They have to vote for it. And if they don't vote for it, they will be betraying the Trump cult." [17:23]

• Time Constraints:

  • There's an urgent timeline to pass reconciliation bills before the end of the fiscal year, with potential extensions until September 30th.
  • Donovan emphasizes the necessity of reaching agreements swiftly to avoid government shutdowns and continued budget standoffs.
  • Quote: "I think they will to the extent that we're going to do one here and now, they will use that fiscal year 25 budget." [11:59]

Democratic Counterstrategies and Messaging

Congressman Brendan Boyle provides the Democratic perspective, focusing on how Democrats intend to counter Republican budget maneuvers.

• Legislative Tools and Messaging:

  • Boyle identifies reconciliation as a means to overcome the filibuster but also cites its limitations. Democrats aim to highlight Republican policies that favor the wealthy at the expense of the middle and working class.
  • Quote: "What they're trying to do is take away health care from tens of millions of Americans and pass big tax cuts for billionaires." [39:07]

• Budget Priorities:

  • Democrats are prepared to emphasize protections for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which Republicans may seek to cut to offset tax reductions.
  • Quote: "Four and a half trillion dollars of tax cuts promising one and a half trillion dollars of cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid." [39:07]

• Debt Ceiling Reform:

  • Boyle advocates for permanently removing the debt ceiling to prevent its weaponization, ensuring fiscal responsibility without political brinkmanship.
  • Quote: "The debt ceiling is crazy. It's an accident of history... It came about in 1917." [47:53]

• Immigration Policy:

  • Addressing both enforcement and humane treatment, Boyle stresses the importance of separating legitimate immigration reform from punitive measures against undocumented immigrants.
  • Quote: "We are a nation of laws and we're a nation of immigrants. We can be true to both." [55:34]

Government Shutdown Prospects

The discussion evaluates the likelihood and impact of a potential government shutdown.

• Current Status:

  • Republicans face mounting pressure to fund the government, with internal divisions making passage of comprehensive bills challenging.
  • Donovan suggests a partial government shutdown is probable if consensus isn't reached by March.
  • Quote: "We have a much greater than 50, 50 shot of a government shutdown." [50:55]

• Democratic Leverage:

  • As the minority, Democrats hold the power to veto or negotiate, potentially using the threat of a shutdown as leverage.
  • Boyle expresses confidence that Democrats won't concede without securing their policy priorities.
  • Quote: "They are not a functioning majority. They need Democratic votes for each and every one of those major items." [45:08]

Immigration Policy Discussions

The episode touches on the complexities of immigration reform within the budgetary framework.

• Policy vs. Rhetoric:

  • Donovan and Boyle discuss the challenges Republicans face in embedding aggressive immigration enforcement into reconciliation bills without overstepping legal boundaries.
  • Quote: "Any of the kind of policy changes they're talking about, they're really going to attempt to do it in this reconciliation bill." [55:34]

• Democratic Approach:

  • Boyle emphasizes humane and lawful immigration policies, rejecting racist rhetoric while supporting necessary enforcement.
  • Quote: "We should never go along with the gratuitous, really ugly sort of rhetoric." [55:34]

Final Remarks and Bro Talk

The episode concludes with lighter "Bro Talk," where Tim Miller and Congressman Boyle engage in casual banter about topics like flavored Zyn tobacco products and college football predictions.

• Humorous Exchanges:
  • They joke about Zyn regulations and share their sports allegiances, showcasing a more personal side of political discourse.
  • Miller: "What is Zyn? And should bros be able to get their coffee and citrus flavored Zyn without any BS from the government?" [64:01]
  • Boyle: Predicts Notre Dame winning the national championship. [64:24]

Notable Quotes

• Liam Donovan: "Reconciliation is a way to pass things in the Senate with a simple majority because of their goofy antiquated rules." [38:20]

• Brendan Boyle: "What they're trying to do is take away health care from tens of millions of Americans and pass big tax cuts for billionaires." [39:07]

• Brendan Boyle: "The debt ceiling is crazy. It's an accident of history. It's a great story. It's total BS." [47:53]

• Brendan Boyle: "We are a nation of laws and we're a nation of immigrants. We can be true to both." [55:34]

• Liam Donovan: "We have to do what we can now because there are lots of things that Democrats can and probably would work with you on." [00:00-02:24]

Conclusions

The episode "The Great Grift" offers an in-depth exploration of the current political landscape surrounding budget reconciliation. Liam Donovan elucidates the mechanics and strategic significance of reconciliation for Republicans aiming to pass contentious policies without bipartisan support. Conversely, Congressman Brendan Boyle outlines Democratic tactics to counteract these efforts, emphasizing the safeguarding of social welfare programs and advocating for debt ceiling reform.

The conversation underscores the intense ideological battles within Congress, the high stakes of fiscal policy decisions, and the broader implications for American governance. As the fiscal year progresses, the potential for a government shutdown remains a looming threat, contingent on the ability of both parties to negotiate and prioritize legislative agendas.

For listeners seeking comprehensive analysis of U.S. budgeting processes and their political ramifications, this episode provides valuable insights from key political figures navigating these turbulent times.