Mark McKinnon and Dan Shapiro: Mid-Wreckage

Summary

The Bulwark Podcast: "Mark McKinnon and Dan Shapiro: Mid-Wreckage"
Release Date: June 19, 2025
Hosts: Tim Miller, Mark McKinnon, and Dan Shapiro

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1. Introduction and Guest Overview [01:12 - 02:00]

Tim Miller kicks off the episode by acknowledging Juneteenth and addressing the recent lack of female guests. He introduces Mark McKinnon, a seasoned media advisor who has worked with prominent figures like John McCain and Ann Richards. The camaraderie between Tim and Mark is palpable as they prepare to delve into pressing political topics.

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2. Evaluating the Trump Administration's Impact [02:31 - 05:35]

Mark McKinnon expresses deep concerns about the ongoing Trump administration, stating, "It's met my worst expectations on every level" ([02:31]). He highlights the absence of oversight and adult supervision, fearing a catastrophic end to Trump's presidency driven by policies such as tariffs and potential military actions against Iran.

Tim Miller challenges Mark by questioning the presence of adult supervision at the Pentagon, referencing General Eric Kurilla, the U.S. Central Command's commander. Mark responds with skepticism about leadership effectiveness, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of Trump's decisions.

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3. Cultural Shifts and Societal Equanimity [05:35 - 07:00]

The discussion pivots to cultural dynamics, with Tim Miller referencing David French's observation that "everybody feels like they're losing." Mark McKinnon counters by acknowledging that while both sides face losses, the current administration's actions are pushing the country towards deeper divisions. He posits that witnessing the administration's "wreckage" is a necessary step for national healing and unity in recognizing the government's role.

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4. Israel-Iran Tensions and Military Actions [07:30 - 14:28]

Mark McKinnon delves into the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. He debunks the myth of Trump being a "peacenik," describing him as someone who "loves offense" and admires authoritarian military leaders ([08:08]). The conversation highlights Israel's recent military successes and Trump's potential desire for credit, suggesting a volatile mix that could lead to further conflict.

Tim Miller brings up Mark's appearance on Scarborough, noting positive developments in Iraq and expressing concerns about overreliance on military momentum. Mark reminisces about the initial unity during the Iraq invasion, contrasting it with the current divisive atmosphere.

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5. Internal Republican Rifts and Media Critique [12:30 - 15:10]

The hosts discuss recent confrontations between Tucker Carlson and Ted, with Mark McKinnon critiquing Tucker's alignment with the core MAGA base rather than a coherent ideology. They explore the fragmentation within the Republican Party, touching upon figures like Elizabeth Warren and the challenges of maintaining a unified message.

Tim Miller shares his views on third-party politics, emphasizing the systemic barriers that prevent new political movements from gaining traction despite genuine public interest.

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6. Immigration Policy and Its Consequences [16:49 - 25:54]

The conversation shifts to immigration, with Mark McKinnon expressing frustration over the erosion of compassionate conservatism—a principle he once believed in during the George Bush era ([17:25]). He criticizes the current administration's immigration policies as hypocritical and anti-American, highlighting stories like the cancellation of the Hispanic Heritage Festival in Kenner, Louisiana, due to fear of ICE raids.

Tim Miller underscores the personal and economic impacts of these policies, sharing instances of families being wrongfully deported despite their contributions to communities and infrastructure projects. Mark elaborates on the demoralization within Homeland Security and ICE, pointing out the unrealistic deportation targets leading to the arrest of innocent, hardworking individuals.

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7. Economic Policies and Tariffs [25:54 - 30:02]

Tim Miller and Mark McKinnon analyze the administration's economic strategies, particularly the aggressive use of tariffs. Mark criticizes the misplaced belief that tariffs can be a "magic wand" to solve economic issues without consumer costs, labeling it as "insane" and unsound economic policy. He references Peter Navarro and Lutnick as influencers of these misguided policies, which he believes are driving the national debt and increasing financing costs.

Tim Miller highlights concerns from Matt Iglesias about rising financing costs and labor shortages exacerbated by tariff-induced worksite raids, questioning whether the administration's economic maneuvers will lead to long-term stability or further decline.

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8. Third-Party Politics and Systemic Barriers [33:21 - 37:00]

The hosts revisit the topic of third-party politics, with Mark McKinnon emphasizing the immense structural challenges such as ballot access and legal hurdles. He argues that genuine grassroots movements face insurmountable obstacles due to state-level gatekeeping and stringent requirements, making third-party success nearly impossible without substantial financial backing.

Tim Miller shares his perspective on potential pathways for third-party emergence, suggesting grassroots efforts and the need for a "maverick billionaire" to champion unconventional views. However, Mark remains skeptical about the feasibility of these approaches, deeming them "exponentially harder" than anticipated.

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9. Transition to Segment Two with Dan Shapiro [43:13 - 43:28]

After a brief interlude of advertisements, Dan Shapiro, former U.S. Ambassador to Israel under President Obama and Special Liaison to Israel on Iran under President Biden, joins the discussion. Tim Miller welcomes him and introduces the focus on Iran's nuclear negotiations and the potential for military action.

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10. Iran's Nuclear Program and Diplomatic Efforts [43:28 - 59:26]

Dan Shapiro provides a nuanced analysis of the current Iran situation. He reflects on the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), defending its role in delaying Iran's nuclear capabilities and criticizing Trump's withdrawal from the agreement. Shapiro outlines three significant changes since the JCPOA:

1. Advancement of Iran's Nuclear Program: The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that Iran possesses about 10 bombs-worth of 60% enriched uranium, drastically shortening the timeline to weapons-grade material.
2. Escalation of State-to-State Attacks: Iran has conducted overt missile and drone attacks against Israel, transitioning from proxy warfare to direct aggression.
3. Shift in Israeli Psyche Post-October 7: The Israeli collective mindset has hardened, prioritizing immediate and decisive action against perceived existential threats from Iran.

Shapiro argues that the current focus should be on ensuring Iran's inability to develop nuclear weapons, advocating for a combination of diplomacy backed by credible military threats to prevent a breakout. He cautions against regime change as a primary objective, emphasizing the need for strategic restraint and measured responses to avoid unintended escalations.

Tim Miller voices concerns about the uncertainty surrounding military actions and the potential for both positive outcomes (freedom for the Iranian people) and severe backlash. Shapiro acknowledges these risks but stresses the importance of maintaining a clear objective to prevent Iran's nuclear armament, advocating for thoughtful and cautious decision-making by leadership.

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11. Concluding Remarks and Future Outlook [59:32 - End]

Dan Shapiro reiterates the critical need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, emphasizing the precarious balance between diplomacy and military preparedness. Tim Miller thanks him for his insights, highlighting the complexity and high stakes of the current geopolitical landscape.

Mark McKinnon wraps up the discussion by sharing his personal gratitude for his life amidst global uncertainties, hinting at a hopeful, albeit cautious, outlook for the future.

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Notable Quotes

• Mark McKinnon on Trump's presidency:
  "It's met my worst expectations on every level." ([02:31])

• Tim Miller on cultural shifts:
  "Everybody feels like they're losing." ([05:35])

• Mark McKinnon on immigration policies:
  "They're here for the most American of reasons. And these are like really religious people, hard working people." ([20:15])

• Dan Shapiro on Iran's nuclear threat:
  "The outcome is Iran with no ability to have a nuclear weapon." ([59:26])

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Conclusion

This episode of The Bulwark Podcast offers a deep dive into the tumultuous political climate of 2025, dissecting the ramifications of the Trump administration's policies, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, and the systemic challenges facing third-party political movements in the U.S. With insights from seasoned political advisors like Mark McKinnon and former diplomats such as Dan Shapiro, the discussion underscores the intricate balance between hope and skepticism in navigating the nation's future.

Transcript

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[Tim Miller]

Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller. Happy Juneteenth. And for all the wokes out there, the Deis, the women in the audience, I just want to say I'm well aware it's been a sausage fest around here lately. I've been trying my best to get a mix of viewpoints but sometimes the schedules don't work out. We had a cancellation late last night. I got out my binder full of women guests to find somebody good and it was, it was late night and so I had to go to my. I had to just call my comfort food and emergency backup. The parade of dicks will continue. We got a two for today. In the second segment we've got Dan Shapiro who was in the Biden administration working on Middle east issues. So he's got a lot of expertise. We'll talk to him about Iran. But first I found somebody who's in touch with his feminine side. He was a media advisor. Thelma.

[Mark McKinnon]

Thelma and Louise.

[Tim Miller]

We called each other Thelma and Louise. It's close enough. He was a media Advisor for W. McCain and Ann Richards. He was the co. Creator, co host of the Circus. It's Mark McKinnon. Hey, MCAT, how you doing man?

[Mark McKinnon]

Hello, my friend. Good to see you.

[Tim Miller]

Thank you for doing this. It's been too long. I want to talk about the news with you, but I kind of want to just pick your brain first. Like biggest picture, we are June 20th. So it was just about whatever five months ago that we had the inauguration. Like what have you made of it? How has it met your, what you expected?

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, it's met my worst expectations on every level. And I mean, it just, I mean the greatest fear was that, you know, Trump would truly be unleashed. You know, it was bad enough round 1v1v2 is just, you know, Trump on steroids without any kind of oversight or anybody around him and any real adults in the room. My view is just that I'm not sure how or when it's going to end catastrophically, but it's going to end catastrophically. And the only question is how bad is it and can we recover from it? I don't know if that's going to be because we bomb Iran or if it's because of the tariff economic policy, but it's going to go south. I mean, you just can't have somebody this disconnected from reality and adult supervision in the American presidency in the year 2025 and expect that things are going to be okay. They're not.

[Tim Miller]

You don't think there's adult supervision at the Pentagon? You're not feeling comfortable with a weekend talk show co host running the military at this moment?

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, you know, I just was reading about this guy named General Eric Kurilla who's the US Scent commander, Central Command. Apparently he's kind of like in charge now and the hegseth's kind of deferring to him and people actually think he knows what he's doing. They call him the gorilla.

[Tim Miller]

So I was encouraging until I got to the nickname.

[Mark McKinnon]

Yeah, that's it. Yeah. What are his instincts going to be? Yeah, yeah. What's he going to tell Trump?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean you said that like it's going to end badly. I agree with that. I guess, you know, there's a range though, right? And you're more of a level headed than me. You're always a little calmer when we were riding around covering this stuff for the circus. And so I'm just, I'm hoping maybe you can calm me or maybe not, maybe make me more worried. But like, what is like, how's your level of alarm at this moment?

[Mark McKinnon]

I'm an eternal prisoner of hope, as you know. I think it's going to be really bad. I think we will recover. I think it may take years or decades, but I'm at peace with it in a macro sense because I think that for the long term equanimity of most American voters in America, this had to happen in order for at least half the country to come to terms with the wreckage they had to see the wreckage. They had to experience the wreckage. If Harris were president, no matter how things went, and we know things went, they weren't that bad under Biden, but they were certain that it was apocalyptic. Imagine what it'd be like under Harris. So no matter what she would have done, half the country would have hated her. Half the country would have said, we're going to hell. The only way that. That half of the country is ever gonna reconcile the decisions that they made by voting for this guy is to realize the damage that he does to their own lives, which, again, I think is inevitable. So we're gonna have to get through that. But I think ultimately that's gonna bring most of the country back together to recognize that government's here for a purpose and it's not the enemy.

[Tim Miller]

I thought you were going to go a different place with that when you said equanimity. Because the one thing I think is true about the culture, is it David French who says somebody has a good observation about how everybody feels like they're losing. Everybody feels like their own side is losing. Right. And I understand why that is, because across different vectors, both sides have been losing, depending on how you look at it. But if you just look at it from a cultural arc standpoint, like conservatives, right wingers, I feel, I think, correctly, that they're getting their ass handed to them. And like, they. They did, you know, they had the Supreme Court and Congress. And so I know that this feels like. What are you talking about? Like, you know, but culturally, institutionally, right? Like that. The universities, the movies, corporations, all having pride floats, you know, just like there was a cultural shift that was more towards the. Whatever you want to call it, the left or more. It's really like elite global, you know, kind of culture. And there have been, like, some big wins. I know it doesn't maybe feel that way for some people, but, like, between gay marriage and, like, healthcare, like, across a lot of areas there. Racial awareness, right. Like, there had been a lot of wins, and it wasn't like we got into perfect, but there had been. There'd been a lot of change in a period of time. And to me, the equanimity might be that, like, they got one.

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, that's kind of the flip side of the argument that I'm saying that both the consequences, and we won, we got it, you know, and we. We caught the car and, you know, we got the Supreme Court that we want a lot of other things. And so, yeah, that's a nice counterbalance view.

[Tim Miller]

They got the Little middle finger, his tiny stubby middle finger that they wanted. And like, now we'll see if that makes them happy. Let's talk about what's going on in Iran, which, which may be the catastrophe that you're talking about may not be. Yeah, you said the Green Room. You had a broad theory of the case, of what was happening there. So let's just start with that.

[Mark McKinnon]

Yeah, I think that we'll very soon see how wrong this could be. But I think he's made a decision. I think he's made a decision to go in and support Israel with air cover and the bunker busting bomb, whatever it is, for the following reasons. One, I think the notion of Donald Trump peacenik is just a complete mythology. It's not who he is. He did it politically because it served his interest to be the anti war guy. No more forever wars because of Biden and Bush and back down the line.

[Tim Miller]

He was just the everybody stupid guy. And so I had the presidents before him been anti war. He would have been like, you guys are so stupid. We should have been doing wars.

[Mark McKinnon]

Like, but, but think about what his instincts really are. Military parades, shooting protesters. He loves offense, he loves military, he loves strongman, he loves Putin. I mean, he loves all the authoritarian military guys around the world. That's a b. He wants to be a winner and he wants credit. And he looks at what's happening right now, and so far it's been really successful in terms of what Israel has accomplished over the last couple of weeks. And I think he's saying, geez, you know, this is working out pretty well. And I want some credit. Now suddenly we, not they. So I think he's bought in and I think Netanyahu's driving him like a truck.

[Tim Miller]

That can't even be a controversial point at this point that, that Netanyahu is driving this. Right. I mean, like, you get, I hear what you're saying, like he wants you on the winning side. He's happy to be.

[Mark McKinnon]

Imagine the conversations he's having. Like they've got, they've got the capacity. If we don't do this, it's going to be on you that we didn't do it. And if we do do it and we wipe it out, you're going to get credit for this.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Mark McKinnon]

Win, win.

[Tim Miller]

We have the former ambassador to Israel, Biden's Middle east guy, Dan Shapiro, coming on in segment two to talk about this a little bit more. Kind of giving them more what the Israeli perspective is on doing this and how they've been Effective. But I was interested in your. I was watching you. You were on with. With Scarborough before this, and my buddy J. Martin, J. Mart doesn't even give a fuck about tv, by the way. This is a total aside. He's slouching, he's making faces like he's. He's just. He's like the kid in the classroom doing spitballs now on tv. It's hilarious watching. Anyway, I was watching you because I want to hear what y' all were talking about. And Scarborough made a point that was things in Iraq seem to be going pretty well the first couple weeks, too. Yeah, I thought that was an insightful point. So I don't know what. You kind of live through all that.

[Mark McKinnon]

I have a lot of muscle memory about that because I remember it very well.

[Tim Miller]

And. And.

[Mark McKinnon]

You know, it's sort of the fog of history that people forget what it was like in the moment. But, you know, when we went in, it was not like a divided country or divided cabinet or anything. And it was like 100% or 99. 99 senators voted to go in.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Mark McKinnon]

You know, it wasn't like this was a debate we were all in and every. I mean, it was like everybody was there. And by the way, one of the interesting things about the Bush library that's really cool is he has something called the Decision Points center in the presidential library. And they picked five issues. It was like Katrina, Iraq, the financial crisis, couple more, and they put you in the chair and they say, here's the information the president had at the time. What decision would you make? And I forget what the number is, but it's something like 88% of the people that go through there did exactly what President Bush did at that time with that information. So Ben Rhodes, Obama's national security guy.

[Tim Miller]

Had it on yesterday.

[Mark McKinnon]

Oh, great. Well. Well, maybe. I think I saw this from your podcast, so I stole it from you.

[Tim Miller]

This is where you want to be in the culture. McKinnon. Where.

[Mark McKinnon]

Top of the news, man.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, my interviews are just consuming you on your. On your feed. They're just steeping in stealing stuff.

[Mark McKinnon]

And it's just osmosis, man. Anyway, he said the problem is that it could be a catastrophic success.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, he did say that.

[Mark McKinnon]

Right? So you have this incredible success of dropping this bomb that blows up the nuclear facility, and then. And you succeed, and then you have catastrophic consequences after that, because you haven't. I mean, what does regime change in Iran mean?

[Tim Miller]

Just one more thing on going back to that Bush point, I just want to linger on that for a second since you were there, like are around it at least, like the shock and awe. It's like there is like a hubristic moment where people can get caught up in this stuff. Right. Where it's like, we got this for sure. And that is something to think about right now in the Israel. Because there's kind of like a good reason kind of for Israel to be hubrisc. And it's pretty astonishing what they've done.

[Mark McKinnon]

Yeah, I think that goes to your point that people get sort of caught up in that success. And these guys, we're the smartest military people in the world and these guys are on their heels and you know, let's, let's take them out while we can. You know, we're rolling, let's go. And you just kind of get caught up in the momentum of war.

[Tim Miller]

Speaking about the fissures though, and then maybe the disagreements. Have you caught the Tucker and Ted interview?

[Mark McKinnon]

I've played it maybe a hundred times. I have it on a loop over here in the corner.

[Tim Miller]

Well, good. How about 101? Because I played one clip from it yesterday, one clip from me yesterday. And I was like, yeah, I need one more. I'm not done with it yet. So let's listen. Let's listen to a different part of it.

[Mark McKinnon]

It's so good.

[Tucker Carlson]

It's interesting. You're trying to derail my questions by calling me an anti Semite, which you are. I did not. Of course you are. And. And rather than be honorable enough to say it right to my face, you are a squeezy feline way. Implying it or just asking questions about the Jews. I'm not asking questions about the Jews. I have. There's nothing to do with Jews or Judaism. It has to with the foreign government. Isn't Israel controlling our foreign policy? That's not about the Jews. You said I'm asking. And by the way, you're the one that just called me, I think, a sleazy feline. So let's be clear. Sleazy to imply that I'm an anti Semite, which you just did. No, I just said why is that the only question you're asking? You answer it. Give me another reason. If you're not an anti Semite, give me another reason why the obsession is Israel. I am in no sense obsessed with Israel. We are on the brink of war with Iran. And so these are valid questions. But you're not asking.

[Mark McKinnon]

Wow, I didn't even hear that clip. That's even better.

[Tim Miller]

It gets better and better.

[Mark McKinnon]

That one's been lost in the shuffle, man. That's incredible. What, sleazy feline.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, if the glove fits. I don't know. Sleazy feline. Not too bad. How deep do you think is this personal? How deep do you think the rift is? Is Tucker kind of on an island? What do you make of the, the fight?

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, if he's on an island, it's, it's a largely populated island of magites. You know, I mean, he and Bannon, I, I mean, I think that they, whatever you say about those guys, I think they have a pulse, the true pulse of, of the core MAGA base. And I think this is where they are, that they, they really are an isolationist group and that Tucker will just believe anything. It's not like he has an ideology. But I think maybe, I don't know, maybe you say the same thing about Bannon, but I mean, that's some high level entertainment there. Taking on cruise.

[Tim Miller]

I liked his little. He dipped into the William F. Buckley there in the middle.

[Mark McKinnon]

What?

[Tim Miller]

Let's show you. Felt like he was on a firing line there for a second.

[Mark McKinnon]

I mean, it was such an ambush. You know, he like looked up the population right before the interview.

[Tim Miller]

It was an ambush. But there were some, there's some legit points, you know, I mean, Ted makes a little bit of a legit point about Tucker's.

[Mark McKinnon]

No, this, I mean, this is an interesting historical demarcation because, I mean, look who's in this coalition. It's not just Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker and Bannon. It's Elizabeth Warren.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Mark McKinnon]

I mean, it's a really interesting coalition that's coming together.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, Tommy Vitor over there on Pod Save America. I was listening to them the other day and he has strange new respect for Tucker, it turns out. So, you know, and sometimes when a person is right, they're right and is talking right for the right reasons. Maybe right for the wrong reasons.

[Richard Karn]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

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[Mark McKinnon]

Listen, I believed it and I think George Bush believed it. And that's part of what drew me over the bridge. And then, I mean, I was there in Texas and saw him embracing immigrants. Saw him on the border. I mean, you can't fake that stuff. I mean, he was speaking Spanish to them and embracing them. And by the way, it was his sort of compassionate version of immigration and trying to fix the system that I fully supported. And, you know, he wanted to campaign on that. And a lot of people are saying, you know, that's a third rail, you can't do it, blah, blah, blah. And he said, you know, top, this is what I believe and you're gonna. So. But the interesting thing about it, Tim, is that that was 25 years ago.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Mark McKinnon]

So that's, you know, like a third of my life that we've been talking about this with zero action, you know, which is amazing. I mean, I don't think anybody disagrees that or very few that it's not an issue that needs to be addressed. And the only question is, how do you address it? What's the fix?

[Tim Miller]

I'm happy to hear you say that. It was one of my failed projects was I was gonna go. I was probably gonna lean on you to help me with this. I was pitching it as a podcast, like back before I started doing this podcast where I was gonna go interview all the OGW people and try to answer this question. Like, was this real? Because I thought it was real as a kid. I was drawn to it.

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, what did Jeb. What'd you think about Jeb's view on it.

[Tim Miller]

Oh no, he was genuine about the immigration stuff though. I think that you could explore all that and be like, okay, well what are the limits to the compassion? Right? And I think that there are layers to explore, you know, there for sure. But I mean he was definitely at least on, on criminal justice issues and on, on immigration issues, very legit. But then it's like these questions have you make these sacrifices and alliances and you know, what are the priorities? Anyway, I thought that'd be interesting to explore, but I bought into it and felt that it was genuine and so I can. It's been a real betrayal. Like on the one thing when people have like you've changed your views and everything, I was like, I don't know, I feel like I've been totally betrayed. Like, like they sold me from Reagan all the way through McCain on, you know, Shining City on a Hill and we're well, and this is the good part of America, et cetera. And like now we're China. Like we have the nastiest immigration policy in the world. Like that is the thing that has hit me the hardest. Maybe the betrayal is part of it. The humanity element is also part of it. As you've watched kind of what they've been doing across all of the different elements with immigration, like, what has, what has grabbed you the most?

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, at the core of it, the hypocrisy. And you can take it this sort of issue by issue about how Trump has discarded sort of, you know, the historical Republican approach on these issues. I mean, for example, like Bush appointed me to the broadcast board of governors which oversees Voice of America. You know, that's all about pushing the freedom agenda around the world. And Trump's cut that. That's. How much more Republican can you get than that idea and that you would shut that down. So on the immigration side, at the very core of this, and we're seeing it now with the AG sector particularly, is that these are people. I mean they're here for the most American of reasons. And these are like really religious people, hard working people. They're not criminals. They may not have their papers, but by God they are patriotic America loving people working their asses off. That's the thing that gets me in the end is that it's just when you get to the core of this, it's very anti American.

[Tim Miller]

Anti American. It is. It's un American. I keep saying it. There are two. I was reading the local paper this morning. We're going to do a little local news segment on this with New Orleans, because this struck me, this just really made me sad. And I think this stuff has happened all over the country and there's this kind of ongoing debate about, you know, is Trump just targeting blue cities? You know, and this is part of some fight and I think it is that like he's trying to escalate fights obviously with, you know, sanctuary cities, quote unquote, and with blue governors. But the policies are way more far reaching than that. And here we are in Louisiana and we've got Kenner, which is a suburb of New Orleans, is 30% Hispanic. They canceled their Hispanic Heritage Festival because they're worried about an ICE raid. Yeah, that's talk about un American. Yeah. And then another local story in the, in the, in the paper. Check out nola.com subscribe and support them. Doing real journalism is a flood control project job site was raided. You know, it's like really, I mean, how much more self harm can you be doing than we're going to, we're going to deport the people that are working on a construction project to help with flood control. Yeah. It feels like New Orleans could use some infrastructure related to flood control. And probably if we can get people who are willing to come work here and help us with that and do so and follow the rules, it seems like that's probably a win. Win.

[Mark McKinnon]

Yeah. And you know, the, the, the tension now is happening in the administration is that, you know, the AG Secretary went and weighed in heavily and then of course, Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem jumped in to reverse the reversal. But the problem is that Miller and company have come up with this number of 3,000 deportations per day to meet a mark of 1 million per year. So the orders have been done. The interesting story is about the demoralization in Homeland Security and ice. People who went into for the right reasons are having to go arrest really good people. And they're not criminals. And the notion that they sold was not that we're going to go round up hard working people who just didn't have papers. So we're going to go round up all these gang members and criminals. Well, they're just. The problem is there aren't 3,000 a day of them to do that.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Mark McKinnon]

So the net pulls up all the, you know, these really good people.

[Tim Miller]

There's some economic impact on that too. But I want to play one more thing because it's been going around, it's from the first term and I just, I feel like there's something here. I don't know, maybe all These guys have been broken by 10 years of Trump. But a much younger looking Joe Rogan. I don't know if you've seen this. This CL has been going around. It's during the child separation stuff. And I want to show you how he was talking about this back then. Broke the law.

[Joe Rogan]

Shouldn't have come over here.

[Mark McKinnon]

If you can.

[Joe Rogan]

You didn't want to get your kids separated if you were in the presence of a woman who came over here from Guatemala and she's poor and she's starving and they're taking her baby away and she's wailing and screaming from a primal, a primal place in her, her DNA, that the one thing she loves more than anything is being taken away. A baby.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Joe Rogan]

If you, if that doesn't freak you the fuck out, you're not a part of the team, man. You're missing it. You're missing it. What's, what are we here for? We're here for a hundred years of whatever. That's what we're here for. If you want to spend a hundred years saying the fucking broke the law, I don't want you on the team. You're an asshole.

[Tim Miller]

I mean, that's really good.

[Mark McKinnon]

Yeah. Occasionally, Rogan kind of.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And I just, I just, I keep banging this drum because I'm like, man, I think that Democrats and whoever, commentators, comedians, podcast bros should be in these spaces making these arguments. People get it.

[Mark McKinnon]

I mean, I heard Rogan do something similarly recently. He does sort of like, you know, on occasion figure out the humanity stuff. Humanity, you know, sort of ekes through occasionally.

[Tim Miller]

And these stories, like, are still like, we don't have a child separation policy right now. But, like, the stories are still happening. I don't know. I get this shit sent to me all the time because I'm so obsessed with it. And I tell people, I was like, don't send me national news stories and memes. I've seen all of those already. But if you have a local news story about something that's happening, your community, send it to me, because I miss that.

[Mark McKinnon]

And I think that stuff's breaking through, Tim, and I think that there's a repetition about it. And so I know that the political circle around Trump is like, you can do anything you want on immigration, you're bulletproof on it. Don't worry about it. But the reality is that those numbers are now south, even as immigration numbers, which is obviously the strongest issue. But the fact is that Americans, no matter how strongly they feel about deporting people who are bad People, I mean, they have a real sense of fairness a. About deporting people that shouldn't be deported to a prison in a foreign country. They don't think that's right. And also, you know, deporting people that don't have any criminal background, I mean, they do draw a line.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, they do. And like, the two stories I was referencing, the people sent me, like, one was a guy was the wife of a military guy.

[Mark McKinnon]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

And she got. And they kind of tricked her a little bit to get. To get her to show up to an appointment. And then the other one was the wife of a pastor who had kids here. And like, she gets deported back to Mexico. Yeah.

[Mark McKinnon]

And then there was one just in the last day or two about the Afghani interpreter guy. You know, I explore this.

[Tim Miller]

A pastor's wife who's been here since 1998 is getting sent back to Mexico.

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, I think those are the kind of stories that get real sticky, like you said. Especially people read about local stores, they're like, wait a minute, what's going on here? I didn't sign up for this.

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[Tim Miller]

Running a business can be exhausting. Building your website shouldn't be. With wix, you can express your ideas, give direction, then leave the heavy lifting to AI. From site creation to branded content and images. Have fun with the details, customize what you want the way you want, and manage your whole business from a centralized dashboard with expert AI tools. Build, scale, and enjoy the incredible results. You can do it all yourself on wix. I want to go back to the econ side now. Chamber of Commerce Tim and MCAT can come out because in addition to the humanity, there's the econ side. Matt Iglesias posted this. I think it was. People are like, it's housing market issues right now. There's softness, but costs are going up. And people are like, why? And Iglesias just summed it up this way pretty simply. He goes, well, we're raising financing costs for things higher. National debt's going to increase interest rates on everything. We're raising building material costs directly with tariffs and indirectly with like these work side work site raids where like, if you have fewer people, you know that you're going to increase the labor costs. And I think that like, unlike the first term, Trump is like walking into a little bit of an economic pickle this time. Like the stuff that he wanted to do, the guys around him didn't really let him do. Like, we focus on that in the context of the authoritarian stuff, but it's also been true in like the economic policy stuff. I don't know. Do you think that's overstated?

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, I'm just a shallow media guy and I, I am not an economist and I flunked Econ 101. But, but even I, that's why, that's.

[Tim Miller]

Why you're representing the man of the people here concerned about your prices.

[Mark McKinnon]

You know, the, the whole tariff obsession from the very beginning, it just struck me as insane. Trump somehow read something about something that happened in the late 1800s and just sort of transposed it to modern day without realizing that there were different circumstances. And it became this sort of magic wand, much like the Wall was in 16. You know, the wall's going to solve everything. We're going to build the wall and Mexico is going to pay for it. Tariffs was kind of the same thing. He just somehow latched onto this notion that the countries are going to pay for it. There'd be no, the consumers here wouldn't have to pay for it. There's no economists in the world that say that that's true. And so he just, he found a couple of nutballs, Peter Navarro and Lutnick and a couple others that, you know, that like that egged him on and just walked into this crazy tariff thing that, you know, Scott Besant, I mean, I think history will go down as showing that he saved us from true economic catastrophe. I mean, had those initial tariffs.

[Tim Miller]

I hate to hand it to Scott Besant. We've got gay on gay crime with Scott Besant. You know, I don't like hands. I can't do it. But that's fine.

[Mark McKinnon]

The gays did a good one there. He just saved us. I'm not endorsing him across the board, but in that moment, in that moment, he pulled us back from could have been.

[Tim Miller]

He certainly is smarter than Howard Nutlik with low bar, but he certainly is. Okay, media guy question then on Econ, the Punch poll, the D.C. a little congressional news outlet that follows Congress, they have a take up this morning of just about how some Republicans on the Hill and they're well sourced There are starting to panic a little bit about the polling numbers around the big beautiful bill and how it's not popular and how they don't have a message on it yet. Now the Democratic message is clear. How about that for a change of pace? The Democrats have a clear message and the Republicans are flailing on their message a little bit. What do you make of all that?

[Mark McKinnon]

I think that this could be the catastrophe that implodes the whole Trump second term. Of course, the irony that you can appreciate given where you and I both come from, is this notion that the Republicans actually cared about the deficit and that they're the ones you look historically, who's driven it up? Well, Clinton brought it down. I mean, you kind of go through the Democratic presidents, they got things sort of right sided and then you'd stack up Bush and especially Trump, I mean, he's driven up the deficit three, five, six times. And we're into territory now where again, this is where the economists come in. The bond markets are freaking out. And so if this bill goes through, I think it's gonna be huge long term consequences. That to me, it just feels like they're driving it off the cliff.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, my old Republican has to come in for a second. Joe Biden did not do a good job on the debt and deficit, but okay. Sometimes the Democrat listeners are like, you gotta give us credit. And I was like, okay, I'll give you credit for the work in 1999 and Barack Obama's failed effort with John Boehner and Simpson Bowles. It was a good, it was a good intentioned effort, but it didn't land. But anyway, yeah, I hear you though. No, I mean, Bush and Trump have been a nightmare. Everybody's been a nightmare on it.

[Richard Karn]

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[Dan Shapiro]

By texting 64,000, you agree to receive recurring automated marketing messages from Pocket Hose. Message and data rates may apply. No purchase required. Terms apply. Available at pockethose.com terms hi, I'm Richard.

[Richard Karn]

Karn and you may have seen me on TV talking about the world's number one expandable garden hose. Well, the brand new Pocket Hose Copperhead with Pocket Pivot is here and it's a total game changer. Old fashioned hoses get kinks and creases at the spigot, but the Copperhead's pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees for full water flow and freedom to water with ease all around your home. When you're all done, this rustproof anti burst hose shrinks back down to pocket size for effortless handling and tidy storage. Plus your super light and ultra durable pocket hose Copperhead is backed with a 10 year warranty. What could be better than that? I'll tell you what an exciting exclusive offer just for you for a limited time. You can get a free Pocket Pivot and their 10 pattern sprayer with the purchase of any size Copperhead hose. Just text water to 64,000. That's water to 64,000 for your two free gifts with purchase W A T E R to 64,000.

[Dan Shapiro]

By texting 64,000, you agree to receive recurring automated marketing messages from Pocket host. Message and data rates may apply. No purchase required. Terms apply. Available at pockethost.com terms Elon I wanted.

[Tim Miller]

To get your pick your brain on Elon because Elon sent a tweet maybe a week or two ago now that I felt like might have been an MCAT bat signal. He was like, maybe the 80% in the middle should create a party that gets rid of all these guys on the extremes. And I was like, did you get a phone call from Elon? Did he try to shake your tree a little bit?

[Mark McKinnon]

Oh, yeah, yeah. Well, this has been my obsession for many, many years. There's just no, you know, this quaint notion that there should be an alternative to, you know, to Coke or Pepsi. We should have seven upper Red Bull.

[Tim Miller]

And is Elon who you imagined is the standard bear for that?

[Mark McKinnon]

No, take whoever we can get there. It's a steep hill and a big Rock, you know, come on in, the water's water's really chilly. So I mean, Elon's not what gets me excited about this notion. It's looking at what's happening with Gen Z and you know, they, they are just radically opposed to kind of the institutional parties and looking for an alternative in a different way and you know, that's on both sides of the aisle. So I could go on for hours about the experience of meeting the buzz saw of trying to do an effort like this because it's almost impossible.

[Tim Miller]

Well, why don't you do it? I did a Reddit ask me anything yesterday. People can go and check that out on our politics. And I do like anytime I do one of these, you get this question, why not a third party? Why doesn't it work? Why doesn't explain why it hasn't worked.

[Mark McKinnon]

A I'll start off with, I think there's huge opportunity there. I think there's a huge desire for it. It's just that the system is really rigged against it. Just in the sense that you have to get on the ballot in 50 states and in order to do that you have to raise. Just the most recent example was about $50 million. Well, Elon's got 50 million, so he could do it, but there's not a lot of Elon's around. And then once you do that, you have to go around all these states and get on the ballot. And in every one of these states there is a Democrat or Republican Secretary of State who's going to do everything they can to question your signatures, throw up roadblocks, file lawsuits. So it's an incredibly difficult thing to just get on the ballot and do all of that. And there have been a couple of different efforts over the last couple of cycles or several cycles. All of them kind of flamed out for different reasons. People always say to me, third party is never going to happen because it's never really successfully happened before. And it's like nothing happens in politics until it does.

[Tim Miller]

What do you make of my answer? My answer to folks is this. There are two possible ways and neither of them have really been tried. One is because it's hard and it's a lot of work which is just starting state legislators and local races and just build from the ground up. And that's a lot more work than starting a group and going on tv. And I think that might not work, but it's worth a try. And the other one is a fuck you billionaire who has insanely weird views. Not what you would Think not. Like, oh, I'm socially moderate and fiscally conservative. This person would have totally wild views that are not. Not out in the public, that nobody's taking on right now. Like, we should ban AI and also, I really love guns. And I. I don't know. You know what I mean? Like, totally.

[Dan Shapiro]

Yeah.

[Mark McKinnon]

It's Ross Perot kind of thing.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Like, those are the only two paths. Like, that's.

[Mark McKinnon]

I agree. And I just. I'm really skeptical about the first one. I just think it's got to be kind of Moses leading out of the desert, and it's got to be from the top. I mean, doing the. I understand the local state, but just to do that is exponentially harder than the alternative.

[Tim Miller]

Perhaps. Anyway, we went down to Sidetrack, but I got intrigued by your answer to that question.

[Mark McKinnon]

People are really interested in it, so it's worth talking about.

[Tim Miller]

When I brought up Elon initially, the feud. Do you have any hot takes on the feud? Because it's ongoing, Elon. People are like, oh, it's over now. But Elon tweeted yesterday, calling Trump's head of personnel, Sergio Gore. This guy I know, he used to work for Rand Paul. Elon tweeted that he's a snake. Elon Twitter that he's a snake yesterday. So it doesn't. As I've always said. I was like, you can't really have a truce with a.

[Dan Shapiro]

A.

[Tim Miller]

With an unhinged poster. I know a lot of people that love to post on social media. They're not the type.

[Mark McKinnon]

Especially when you're posting to the platform that you own.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Yeah. It's like, you know, you might think you have a truce, but something's gonna happen, and he's gonna.

[Mark McKinnon]

Yeah, I mean, it's. The truce is gonna happen until he, you know, takes his next round of Adderall and is he gonna Crank. Yeah, I just think that that's just gonna be on again, off again, and. But yes, Sergio, I had some. Some. He's an interesting cat, isn't he?

[Tim Miller]

You had some run ins with him?

[Mark McKinnon]

Not run ins, but I mean, like, when he worked for Rand and whoever.

[Tim Miller]

You know, that's wild. The more you know these people, the scareder you are of the state of the government. Who's running the government, I would say.

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, you know, I tell the story about. You'll appreciate this, Tim, because you were on the A team, you know, 16. You think about if you were a Republican operative like Tim Miller, and, you know, you make your bones in your career and maybe a Bunch of money by being working for a successful presidential candidate, by helping elect a president. That's the world series of politics. So in that cycle there were I think 18 candidates ultimately. And if you're Republican operative, if you interviewed with Trump, that was your 18th interview because you'd already been turned down by Rubio. Jeb, you know, you just go down the line. There were some A listers in that race and nobody thought Trump was going to win. So imagine the, the level of, yeah.

[Tim Miller]

I had multiple offers. You know, this is not really a brag. It's just like there's so many people out there. Like it was a, it was a, the, the supply and demand was such that like you're really at the bottom of the barrel. Yeah.

[Mark McKinnon]

It was truly broken toys. It was truly broken toys. So.

[Tim Miller]

And now it's self selected for the most sociopathic people who have been like, after all this are like, now I want to come back in.

[Mark McKinnon]

Yes. I mean, so this time around you could say, well, it's not just all broken toys, but, but it is people. The reward system in that ecosystem is not for following rules. It's for being rule breakers. Right. It's for being shitstormers, glass breakers, you know, outrage performers. It's the Loomers, it's Laura Loomers. Those are the people that get attention and rewarded in that, in that universe. It's not people who do good, it's people who break shit.

[Tim Miller]

All right. Do you miss the road? Are you happy? What are you doing? How are you spending your days now? There's no circus. Are you bike riding or what are you up to?

[Mark McKinnon]

Well, I, I say that, you know, people ask me how I'm doing, saying, well, I'm pacing the cage as I look at the world, but I'm also experiencing radical gratitude for my little bubble. You know, you and I are both from Colorado. I'm back there and I love it. I live in a town of 800 at 10,000ft with a national forest behind me and a river running through it, so. And grandchildren and families surrounding me. So I have a lot of gratitude and feel very grateful for my life and, you know, I worry about the world, but I'm, you know, I love being where I am.

[Tim Miller]

Probably the best lineup of politicians in Colorado too. Like, the Colorado isn't broken. I mean, there are a couple bad ones. There are a couple.

[Mark McKinnon]

You know, I'm so glad to be out of Texas where George Bush couldn't get elected now, but, but it's such a purple state, like Michael Bennett, you know, he's, he's running for governor now. Be great. Governor, that's. You just kind of look at the Bennett's and the Hickenloopers and the Polis is, that's where I live politically and so I'm very comfortable there.

[Tim Miller]

Mcat, thank you. Holler at me anytime. It's good to see you. Appreciate you stepping in today and hope to see you soon.

[Unknown Speaker]

Soon.

[Mark McKinnon]

Always willing to jump in the car, Thomas.

[Tim Miller]

All right, brother. Come on down to New Orleans soon. We can have a purple drink. Everybody stick around. I got former ambassador Dan Shapiro up next.

[Richard Karn]

Hi, I'm Richard Karn and you may have seen me on TV talking about the world's number one expandable garden hose. Well, the brand new pocket hose Copperhead with pocket pivot is here and it's a total game changer. Old fashioned hoses get kinks and creases at the spigot, but the Copperhead's pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees for full water flow and freedom to water with ease all around your home. When you're all done, this rust proof anti burst hose shrinks back down to pocket size for effortless handling and tidy storage. Plus your super light and ultra durable pocket hose Copperhead is backed with a 10 year warranty. What could be better than that? I'll tell you what. An exciting radio exclusive offer just for you for a limited time. You can get a free Pocket Pivot and their 10 pattern sprayer with the purchase of any size Copperhead hose. Just text water to 64,000. That's water to 64,000 for your two free gifts with purchase. W A T E R to 64,000.

[Dan Shapiro]

By texting 64,000, you agree to receive recurring automated marketing messages from pocket Hose. Message and data rates may apply. No purchase required. Terms apply. Available at pockethose.com terms hi, I'm Richard.

[Richard Karn]

Karn and you may have seen me on TV talking about the world's number one expandable garden hose. Well, the brand new pocket hose Copperhead with pocket pivot is here and it's a total game changer. Old fashioned hoses get kinks and creases at the spigot, but the Copperhead's pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees for full water flow and freedom to water with ease all around your home. When you're all done, this rust proof anti burst hose shrinks back down to pocket size for effortless handling and tidy storage. Plus your super light and ultra durable pocket hose Copperhead is backed with a 10 year warranty. What could be better than that? I'll tell you what an exciting exclusive offer just for you for a limited time. You can get a free pocket pivot and their 10 pattern sprayer with the purchase of any size Copperhead hose. Just text Water to 64,000. That's Water to 64,000 for your two free gifts with purchase w a T e R to 64, 000 by texting.

[Dan Shapiro]

64,000 you agree to receive recurring automated marketing messages from Pocket Host. Message and data rates may apply. No purchase required. Terms apply. [e-mail] Terms all right, we are back.

[Tim Miller]

He was US ambassador to Israel under President Barack Obama and subsequently President Joe Biden appointed him as special liaison to Israel on the issue of Iran. Was also advis released issues to the Department of Defense. It's Dan Shapiro. How you doing?

[Dan Shapiro]

Thanks, Tim. Good to be with you. Happy Juneteenth.

[Tim Miller]

Happy Juneteenth to you as well. I got a DM from you this morning and I was in the market for somebody to fit this bill and so it was just fortuitous. And you wrote that you have a different take from your friend Ben Rhodes on the Iran nuclear negotiations and the pros and cons of military action. And as I said earlier this week, I'm like, I'm deeply torn about the whole thing. And so I was interested to hear your point of view. So why don't you just take it away?

[Dan Shapiro]

Sure. Thanks. Well, I listened to you and Ben yesterday and Ben's a friend and we've worked together for a long time and we've disagreed on things and when we disagree, we argue with friends. But I'd want to just come and share perspective. Yeah. We were both, of course, in the Obama administration when the JCPOA was signed and I was ambassador to Israel. And you can imagine there was a lot of unhappiness and skepticism in Israel about that agreement. And I was the ambassador called upon to defend it. And I did. And I explained to my Israeli friends, you know, it wasn't a perfect deal. It didn't solve everything, but it did buy time. It did extend out Iran's ability to ever achieve a nuclear weapon, keep them at least a year distance from that and keep them there for over a decade. And then when Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, I criticized that. I thought that was a mistake. It gave back some of that time. It sort of gave a chance for Iran to shorten the distance sooner. And it has. And that's kind of brought us to this moment. But I do feel like we're sometimes caught in that historical debate, the two tribes, you know, pro and con, on jcpoa. And I'm just not sure it's as relevant to the situation we face now. And it's distracting us to some degree from focusing on the outcome that we need. And that was the outcome that the president finally took a little time but landed on in the negotiations he was conducting with Iran was that there should be no enrichment, There should be no ability for Iran independently to achieve the means to break out.

[Tim Miller]

President Obama, you mean?

[Dan Shapiro]

No, no, I mean President Trump in the negotiations he was conducting, you know, in the last two, three months. So that was what he landed on, no enrichment. And, you know, of course, the Iranians hadn't agreed to that, and I don't think they were likely to agree to that. We're probably going to face some crisis point in those negotiations maybe a bit later in the year, and the only chance of them coming around to that position is if you have diplomacy backed by the credible threat of force. But that, I think, is the right position. And I think, you know, three things have changed since those negotiations a decade ago on the jcpoa, and that's one is that just because, and this is partly because of Trump's withdrawal from the agreement. The program has advanced. There's just no two ways about it. Everyone acknowledges. And the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed they have about 10 bombs worth of 60% enriched uranium, which they could in a very short time, days or weeks, turn into weapons grade uranium. They've shortened the distance. There's some dispute about exactly in what means, but they've clearly done research on weaponization, the separate process of building the bomb. And so the program's advanced and just the time that it would take them to do that is much less. The second thing is what happened last year. This is when I was serving in the Pentagon. Twice Iran conducted these overt state to state attacks with barrages of missiles and rockets and drones against Israel. You know, in the past, that sort of campaign was conducted through proxies and it was sort of deniable, what they used to call the shadow war. But now we're talking about this open state on state act of war, raining really unprecedented numbers of rockets and missiles and drones down on Israel. And you just imagine if any one of those had been tipped with a nuclear warhead, you know how risky that is. The third thing I think is just what changed in the psychology in Israel after October 7, that is that the mindset has shifted. And this is really across the society. It's not really just about Bibi, that you can't allow threats that could be, you know, to Israel's maybe very existence to mature and come up to the last possible minute before you address them. There were huge failures and errors that led, of course, to their vulnerability on October 7th. They weren't as prepared as they should have been. And so the position they now adopt is that we can't sort of, you know, we've no margin for error. We can't just wait till the last minute to address a threat, especially when we're talking about something with as existential as existential implications as an Iranian nuclear weapon. And of course, they also see an opening because, and I think Ben discussed this yesterday, last October, after the second of those Iranian attacks, the Israelis did go in and they did eliminate the best Iranian air defenses, the S3 hundreds that the Russians had provided. So when they saw that vulnerability and they see the maturing of that threat and they see the risk that is associated with them carrying out a state on state act of war, as they've already done twice, just not going to have that margin of error. And so that brings us to this point when there is no. I wish they had given them a bit more time to try to see if they were going to work. I don't really think the Iranians were going to agree to the terms without a threat of force. But that's where we are now. And now Israelis have acted. Trump could have given them a red light, did not. But now we have some decisions facing us.

[Tim Miller]

All right, I want to push on a couple of those different areas. First, on the intelligence about the nuclear program, I think you can probably understand folks who are not as versed in all this as you having some boy who cries wolf. Skepticism going towards what happened with the Iraq war. Intelligence related to that, of course, but also Iran's been on the brink of a weapon for 20 years now. The director of National Intelligence, who I have no love for, was just three months ago saying that they weren't that close. Not less than three months ago, really. And now just a little bit later, they're saying, oh, no, we have to do this right now. How do you respond to that? I think legitimate skepticism that you'd hear from folks on that. This is an image.

[Dan Shapiro]

Look, I mean, the Iranian strategy for years has been to inch forward with this program, not to rush to a breakout. And so partly their strategy has been to stay within range so that at the time of their choosing, they could break out. And so that means if you're ever warning that they're some distance away, but they're making the decision to proceed slowly but still give themselves that opportunity, then, you know, a year passes, two years pass, five years pass, and that hasn't happened. People say, oh, well, see, you were crying. The other thing that's happened, of course, over a number of years has been a range of US And Israeli actions that have put time on the clock. Everything from negotiations and the JCPOA is part of that, and sanctions and sabotage and covert actions. So there are various ways that we've been able to extend the timeline that have kept them from the actual moment of truth. I mean, Right. Some of what I say is drawn from information I have access to when I was in government. I, of course, left in January. So I don't know the most recent intelligence. But even then it was pretty clear that there's research going on that without a formal decision to build a weapon, is bringing them closer to be able to do that faster. If and when they get that decision from the Supreme Leader, that's on the weaponization side. And then on the enrichment side, there's no dispute. This is all public and documented by the International Atomic Energy Agency. They've accelerated their enrichment of 60% uranium. This was again partly in reaction to Trump's withdrawal from the. The agreement in 2018, but this is where we are. And they now have 10 bombs worth of 60%, which within days, they could produce at least one bomb's worth of 90%. That's weapons grade. And, you know, within a few weeks, multiple bombs worth. So, again, to say that there's a decision, no one can't say they've made that decision, but one can say they've significantly shortened the time that it would take them to do it if they make the decision. And that's where this do you have the margin of error question comes in.

[Tim Miller]

So the other thing I think has people worried or concerned is the chatter around this offensive action from Israel, in part because of the success of it, which is. Which I've mentioned several times, and it's really kind of astonishing how successful Mossad and Israel, IDF has been both with Hezbollah and this action. But the result of that success has been there's a lot of chatter of, like, ooh, like, maybe we can get rid of the mullahs altogether. Right. And there's been, and I think it seems like a notion that this is not just like an effort to bomb the nuclear facilities, but maybe an effort towards regime Change altogether. And that gets people leery, given our recent experience. What would you say to that?

[Dan Shapiro]

So far, at least, the Israelis have not declared regime change to be the goal of the operation. They've said it's to prevent the nuclear breakout possibility and also the ballistic missiles, which, of course, Iran is using to attack Israel every night. In fact, I think there was a very tough blow against the hospital in southern Israel today from one of those ballistic missiles. They've killed about 24 people, you know, injured hundreds and the like. So that's what Israel says their objective is. I don't think regime change should be the objective of this operation, whether it remains purely Israeli or whether the United States gets involved. And certainly, you know, I'm not talking anything like what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan 20 years ago. We're not putting boots on the ground. We're not marching into Tehran. That's not the case. We should keep the focus and keep on the outcome we need, which is to ensure they don't have that ability to create a nuclear weapon. Now, of course, I'll say, obviously the regime is a terrible regime, mostly to its own people. It's brutal, it's corrupt, it's mismanaged the economy and the electricity and water. And in every other way, they have squandered the resources of the Iranian people, not on making their lives better and more prosperous, but on pursuing these ideological crusades around the region, mostly against Israel, against us. There's a lot of Israelian, Israeli, Arab, European blood on the hands of this regime. And so no one will shed any tears or should when it leaves. But that's a decision for the Iranian people, and they'll have to make that decision. Now. There may be a tipping point when the regime looks weak. Certain institutions have been rendered less capable or wobbled because of some of this operation. And again, that might trigger some internal processes, but nobody knows. Nobody knows when those regime fissures will appear, if there's some organized opposition. So that's not really the goal. It shouldn't be the goal.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean, I have no love for the regime either. But on the Bibi side of this, I think there's good reason to not maybe believe that the goal of this operation is just the nuclear regime. I mean, he was on Fox the other day saying that this operation could certainly result in a regime as the government. Iran is very weak. They shoot women because their hair is uncovered. They shoot students. They suck the oxygen out from these brave and gifted people, the Iranian people. The decision to act, to rise up up this time is the decision of the Iranian people, and I agree with every word of that. But coming from the person that is executing a bombing campaign, like, to me that means. That seems to me that he is saying that he wants to make that happen militarily or at least is open to that thing, then end game of this. And I don't know. I think it's an aspirational notion. I agree with it. But then we get into kind of a debate if it's the. If it's really what the real mission is of the, of the campaign.

[Dan Shapiro]

Yeah, look, I've got no illusions about Bibi. I've worked with him, and, you know, we've had our many differences over the years. You know, I think he is speaking aspirationally there. That is, again, something. An aspiration I share. Sounds like you do, too. An awful lot of Iranian. Iranian people feel that way as well. He's not necessarily the best spokesperson for that. Not somebody who I think is going to be the one to draw Iranians out into the streets. So. So if I were advising him, I'd say tone it down, chill it out. But I still don't see it as the military objective of the campaign. I still see that focused on the nuclear and the missile threats.

[Tim Miller]

The other thing that I talked about, I'm just interested in your take on, is in these discussions. I'm just filled with a deep uncertainty, and it makes me nervous that I feel like there are a lot of people that in government and then who are advocates on both sides of this, this, who have, like, utter certainty, like, utter certainty that Iran must be taken out to protect Israel, or utter certainty that Israel must not do anything, you know, because it will lead to catastrophe. I think that that is blinding. Right. Like when you have that. I was talking about this with McKinnon in the first segment, is that, like, Iraq looked really great for six weeks and that led to a hubris, I think, about, like, what was achievable. And I worry about that here. I worry about the fact that like, like, it's the one issue where my inbox is most filled with people are 100% damn certain on one way or the other that we should do this. And like, that worries you when you have Bibi and Trump and folks who could be a little reckless. Right. That things can spiral out of control. I mean, because who the hell knows, right? I don't know. Like, actions like this might. Might yield freedom for the Iranian people. It might yield a backlash. That's hard to predict. What do you say to that.

[Dan Shapiro]

So, first of all, I'd say you're right that nobody who projects certainty about how any of this is going to unfold should be believed that they know. And that's part of this kind of frustration I have with the sort of tribal debate about the pros and cons of the jcpoa. I just think we should focus really carefully on what the objectives should be from here. And you're right. The uncertainty goes both ways. Right. If we don't act and they're left with that capability, as I said, you know, they're much closer to the ability, when they dissolve, to build that nuclear weapon and then one missile with that warhead, we're talking about a different world if we do act. Yes, there's always risk when you take military action. And so this has to be done thoughtfully and carefully. And, yes, Donald Trump is not the commander in chief. I would have chosen for judiciousness and care and wisdom in how he approaches this. And I can't stand the kind of reckless tweets and sort of thinking out loud all of his impulses about, oh, evacuate Tehran.

[Tim Miller]

You don't think that the threats to assassinate the ayatollah, the threats to assassinate.

[Dan Shapiro]

The ISO, you know, you know, all of those unconditional surrender in all caps. Right. This is not helpful. So, you know, I'm hoping, of course, that judicious decisions are ultimately made. I know the military who are advising him, the CENTCOM commander or General Eric Kurilla and the team, and they're very, very smart and careful and thoughtful, and they mitigate risk. So I just think we should be thoughtful about it. And actually, there's still an opening for diplomacy here, and it should be coercive diplomacy. Right. It's clear the president is considering this strike. He's putting in place the forces that would be necessary. He's moved a second carrier into the region and tankers and fighters, and then the bombers that would come in at the end would actually execute it. But then you have the rest necessary for defense on any blowback. And there's risk. And you've got to message carefully to the Iranians that if they were to respond, especially against U.S. forces, they would pay a very dear price for that and try to use that as deterrence. There's risk of escalation. There's also the ability sometimes to use that risk of escalation, to actually find a de escalatory path. But that's what's all on the table now. And that's an opening, actually. For the Iranians to come to the table. In fact, the foreign minister of Iran is meeting with the European foreign ministers, the British and French and German tomorrow in Geneva. That may be an opening for him to give the concession they wouldn't give in the talks before, which is, all right, we're going to give up this enrichment program, and that would spare everybody having to go through this. That would be the best act. But if they don't, you know, then there's the question of who can actually deal with this militarily. The Israelis, by the way, may have solutions to fordo the underground facility that we don't fully know about. They've shown a lot of ingenuity and creativity with pagers against Hezbollah and commandos and smuggling drones in. Right. We know what they are capable of. So they may have surprises up their sleeve. But if it requires a US Action with our unique capabilities to get that underground site to make sure that they don't have that enrichment capabilities, it has to be on the table. And so the President's given himself that option. I just don't think he's made the decision yet.

[Tim Miller]

All right, anything I didn't ask you, you wanted to mention?

[Dan Shapiro]

Listen, this is tough, and nobody, as you said, should feel that this is a good situation or confident about outcomes. But I do want to get the outcome right. The outcome is Iran with no ability to have a nuclear weapon. So that's the moment we're in.

[Tim Miller]

All right. Ambassador Dan Shapiro, man, thank you so much for reaching out and for listening to the show, and let's stay in touch as this stuff develops. All right?

[Dan Shapiro]

Thanks, Tim. Love to. Take care.

[Tim Miller]

All right, everybody else, we'll see you back tomorrow. We got a good one coming, so make sure to tune in peace.

[Unknown Speaker]

I walk along the avenue I never thought I need a girl like you Need a girl like you with kind of eyes that hypnotize me Hypnotize me and I run like I'm so far away I just run I run.

[Tim Miller]

I couldn't get away.

[Unknown Speaker]

A cloud appears above your head A beam of light comes shining down on you Shining down on you the cloud is moving nearer snow Aurora borealis comes in the earth Aurora comes in the earth and I run I ran so far away I just r.

[Tim Miller]

I couldn't get away the board podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

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