The Bulwark Podcast: "Mark McKinnon and Dan Shapiro: Mid-Wreckage"
Release Date: June 19, 2025
Hosts: Tim Miller, Mark McKinnon, and Dan Shapiro

1. Introduction and Guest Overview [01:12 - 02:00]

Tim Miller kicks off the episode by acknowledging Juneteenth and addressing the recent lack of female guests. He introduces Mark McKinnon, a seasoned media advisor who has worked with prominent figures like John McCain and Ann Richards. The camaraderie between Tim and Mark is palpable as they prepare to delve into pressing political topics.

2. Evaluating the Trump Administration's Impact [02:31 - 05:35]

Mark McKinnon expresses deep concerns about the ongoing Trump administration, stating, "It's met my worst expectations on every level" ([02:31]). He highlights the absence of oversight and adult supervision, fearing a catastrophic end to Trump's presidency driven by policies such as tariffs and potential military actions against Iran.

Tim Miller challenges Mark by questioning the presence of adult supervision at the Pentagon, referencing General Eric Kurilla, the U.S. Central Command's commander. Mark responds with skepticism about leadership effectiveness, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of Trump's decisions.

3. Cultural Shifts and Societal Equanimity [05:35 - 07:00]

The discussion pivots to cultural dynamics, with Tim Miller referencing David French's observation that "everybody feels like they're losing." Mark McKinnon counters by acknowledging that while both sides face losses, the current administration's actions are pushing the country towards deeper divisions. He posits that witnessing the administration's "wreckage" is a necessary step for national healing and unity in recognizing the government's role.

4. Israel-Iran Tensions and Military Actions [07:30 - 14:28]

Mark McKinnon delves into the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. He debunks the myth of Trump being a "peacenik," describing him as someone who "loves offense" and admires authoritarian military leaders ([08:08]). The conversation highlights Israel's recent military successes and Trump's potential desire for credit, suggesting a volatile mix that could lead to further conflict.

Tim Miller brings up Mark's appearance on Scarborough, noting positive developments in Iraq and expressing concerns about overreliance on military momentum. Mark reminisces about the initial unity during the Iraq invasion, contrasting it with the current divisive atmosphere.

5. Internal Republican Rifts and Media Critique [12:30 - 15:10]

The hosts discuss recent confrontations between Tucker Carlson and Ted, with Mark McKinnon critiquing Tucker's alignment with the core MAGA base rather than a coherent ideology. They explore the fragmentation within the Republican Party, touching upon figures like Elizabeth Warren and the challenges of maintaining a unified message.

Tim Miller shares his views on third-party politics, emphasizing the systemic barriers that prevent new political movements from gaining traction despite genuine public interest.

6. Immigration Policy and Its Consequences [16:49 - 25:54]

The conversation shifts to immigration, with Mark McKinnon expressing frustration over the erosion of compassionate conservatism—a principle he once believed in during the George Bush era ([17:25]). He criticizes the current administration's immigration policies as hypocritical and anti-American, highlighting stories like the cancellation of the Hispanic Heritage Festival in Kenner, Louisiana, due to fear of ICE raids.

Tim Miller underscores the personal and economic impacts of these policies, sharing instances of families being wrongfully deported despite their contributions to communities and infrastructure projects. Mark elaborates on the demoralization within Homeland Security and ICE, pointing out the unrealistic deportation targets leading to the arrest of innocent, hardworking individuals.

7. Economic Policies and Tariffs [25:54 - 30:02]

Tim Miller and Mark McKinnon analyze the administration's economic strategies, particularly the aggressive use of tariffs. Mark criticizes the misplaced belief that tariffs can be a "magic wand" to solve economic issues without consumer costs, labeling it as "insane" and unsound economic policy. He references Peter Navarro and Lutnick as influencers of these misguided policies, which he believes are driving the national debt and increasing financing costs.

Tim Miller highlights concerns from Matt Iglesias about rising financing costs and labor shortages exacerbated by tariff-induced worksite raids, questioning whether the administration's economic maneuvers will lead to long-term stability or further decline.

8. Third-Party Politics and Systemic Barriers [33:21 - 37:00]

The hosts revisit the topic of third-party politics, with Mark McKinnon emphasizing the immense structural challenges such as ballot access and legal hurdles. He argues that genuine grassroots movements face insurmountable obstacles due to state-level gatekeeping and stringent requirements, making third-party success nearly impossible without substantial financial backing.

Tim Miller shares his perspective on potential pathways for third-party emergence, suggesting grassroots efforts and the need for a "maverick billionaire" to champion unconventional views. However, Mark remains skeptical about the feasibility of these approaches, deeming them "exponentially harder" than anticipated.

9. Transition to Segment Two with Dan Shapiro [43:13 - 43:28]

After a brief interlude of advertisements, Dan Shapiro, former U.S. Ambassador to Israel under President Obama and Special Liaison to Israel on Iran under President Biden, joins the discussion. Tim Miller welcomes him and introduces the focus on Iran's nuclear negotiations and the potential for military action.

10. Iran's Nuclear Program and Diplomatic Efforts [43:28 - 59:26]

Dan Shapiro provides a nuanced analysis of the current Iran situation. He reflects on the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), defending its role in delaying Iran's nuclear capabilities and criticizing Trump's withdrawal from the agreement. Shapiro outlines three significant changes since the JCPOA:

1. Advancement of Iran's Nuclear Program: The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that Iran possesses about 10 bombs-worth of 60% enriched uranium, drastically shortening the timeline to weapons-grade material.
2. Escalation of State-to-State Attacks: Iran has conducted overt missile and drone attacks against Israel, transitioning from proxy warfare to direct aggression.
3. Shift in Israeli Psyche Post-October 7: The Israeli collective mindset has hardened, prioritizing immediate and decisive action against perceived existential threats from Iran.

Shapiro argues that the current focus should be on ensuring Iran's inability to develop nuclear weapons, advocating for a combination of diplomacy backed by credible military threats to prevent a breakout. He cautions against regime change as a primary objective, emphasizing the need for strategic restraint and measured responses to avoid unintended escalations.

Tim Miller voices concerns about the uncertainty surrounding military actions and the potential for both positive outcomes (freedom for the Iranian people) and severe backlash. Shapiro acknowledges these risks but stresses the importance of maintaining a clear objective to prevent Iran's nuclear armament, advocating for thoughtful and cautious decision-making by leadership.

11. Concluding Remarks and Future Outlook [59:32 - End]

Dan Shapiro reiterates the critical need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, emphasizing the precarious balance between diplomacy and military preparedness. Tim Miller thanks him for his insights, highlighting the complexity and high stakes of the current geopolitical landscape.

Mark McKinnon wraps up the discussion by sharing his personal gratitude for his life amidst global uncertainties, hinting at a hopeful, albeit cautious, outlook for the future.

Notable Quotes

• Mark McKinnon on Trump's presidency:
  "It's met my worst expectations on every level." ([02:31])

• Tim Miller on cultural shifts:
  "Everybody feels like they're losing." ([05:35])

• Mark McKinnon on immigration policies:
  "They're here for the most American of reasons. And these are like really religious people, hard working people." ([20:15])

• Dan Shapiro on Iran's nuclear threat:
  "The outcome is Iran with no ability to have a nuclear weapon." ([59:26])

Conclusion

This episode of The Bulwark Podcast offers a deep dive into the tumultuous political climate of 2025, dissecting the ramifications of the Trump administration's policies, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, and the systemic challenges facing third-party political movements in the U.S. With insights from seasoned political advisors like Mark McKinnon and former diplomats such as Dan Shapiro, the discussion underscores the intricate balance between hope and skepticism in navigating the nation's future.