Michael Weiss and Thomas Zimmer: Competent and Radical

Summary

The Bulwark Podcast
Episode: Michael Weiss and Thomas Zimmer: Competent and Radical
Release Date: December 3, 2024

Hosts: Tim Miller and Michael Weiss
Guests: Thomas Zimmer

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Introduction and Guest Background

In this episode, Tim Miller welcomes Thomas Zimmer, a visiting professor at Georgetown University and author of Democracy Americana on Substack. Zimmer specializes in 20th-century U.S. and international history, focusing on the transatlantic history of democracy and its challenges. He is also a co-host of the podcast Is This Democracy?

Notable Quote:

Tim Miller [04:03]: "Welcome as of yet still, I guess, right."

Evolution of the Conservative Movement

Zimmer discusses the transformation within the conservative movement, highlighting how traditional small government conservatism has evolved into a more radical stance. He uses Russell Vogt, a former Management and Budget (OMB) Director, as a case study to illustrate this shift from fiscal conservatism to what Zimmer terms "radical constitutionalism."

Notable Quotes:

Thomas Zimmer [07:22]: "He now wants to mobilize government and use the coercive powers of government to impose a certain vision on American society."

Michael Weiss [09:01]: "There's nothing left to conserve is really the key line there."

Russell Vogt and Radical Constitutionalism

Zimmer delves into Vogt’s career trajectory, emphasizing his transition from a fiscal hawk to a proponent of expansive government control. Vogt's ideology represents a departure from conserving existing institutions to actively dismantling and reshaping them to align with radical conservative goals.

Key Points:

• Vogt's background as a career operative within the Republican Party.
• Shift from advocating for small government to supporting a counter-revolutionary agenda.
• Emphasis on using executive orders to exert greater presidential control over federal agencies.

Notable Quotes:

Thomas Zimmer [09:14]: "Russell Vogt calls it radical constitutionalism. Conservatism is no longer enough."

Thomas Zimmer [12:19]: "The hour is late," indicating an imminent collapse of America as perceived by radical conservatives.

Impact on Federal Institutions: The FBI Appointment

The conversation shifts to the implications of appointing Cash Patel as the head of the FBI. Patel is characterized as a conspiracy theorist deeply loyal to Trump, raising concerns about morale and the bureau's integrity.

Key Points:

• Michael Weiss highlights Patel’s involvement with QAnon and his promotion of right-wing conspiracy theories.
• Concerns about the FBI's ability to function effectively under such leadership.
• Potential for increased internal conflict and reduced morale among agents.

Notable Quotes:

Tim Miller [29:04]: "Keshe Patel is a conspiracy theorist. And even more than that, I think he is such a slavish loyalist to the president."

Michael Weiss [32:31]: "When Patel is promoting his children's book... he offered 10 copies in which he signed the books and added a special message, WWG1 WGA."

Geopolitical Developments: Syria and Turkish Influence

Zimmer provides an in-depth analysis of the current situation in Syria, detailing the weakening of Iranian influence and the surge of Turkish-backed rebel groups aiming to topple Assad's regime. He draws parallels between these developments and historical geopolitical strategies.

Key Points:

• Iran's diminished role in Syria due to setbacks against Hezbollah and other militias.
• Rise of HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham) under leader Jelani, who seeks to establish a state-like apparatus in northwest Syria.
• Turkey’s strategic sponsorship of the Syrian National Army (SNA) to counter Kurdish forces and exert regional dominance.
• The complex interplay between Russian, Turkish, and local Syrian actors in shaping the conflict’s trajectory.

Notable Quotes:

Tim Miller [48:09]: "Jelani has gone to war with ISIS many times. There's this weird thing where a jihadist is fighting transnational terrorists."

Tim Miller [55:58]: "HTS is like the Taliban, they are an authoritarian Salafist organization, but they legitimately want to govern and they want to have an administrative capacity."

Russia's Internal Status and Ukraine War Implications

The discussion transitions to Russia's economic and military struggles, particularly focusing on the war in Ukraine. Zimmer and Weiss examine the sustainability of Russia’s military efforts amid significant losses and internal economic pressures.

Key Points:

• Russia's staggering losses in manpower and military equipment.
• The impact of conscripting diverse nationalities, including North Koreans and Cubans, on Russia's military efficacy.
• Potential shifts in Ukraine's strategies and morale in light of upcoming U.S. political changes.
• Speculations on how improvements or deteriorations in Russia's domestic situation could influence the ongoing conflict.

Notable Quotes:

Tim Miller [60:19]: "British intelligence estimates that over 700,000 Russian forces have been taken off the chessboard."

Tim Miller [62:39]: "Republicans have a great deal of wariness about people like Gabbard."

Intelligence Sharing and International Relations

The appointment of politically aligned individuals across intelligence and defense sectors raises alarms about the future of intelligence sharing with allies, particularly the UK. Zimmer expresses concerns that the politicization of these roles could undermine crucial international partnerships.

Key Points:

• Potential reluctance of the UK and NATO allies to fully share intelligence with a politicized U.S. administration.
• The role of key figures like Tulsi Gabbard in national security positions and their controversial affiliations.
• The risk of diminished trust and cooperation among traditional allies.

Notable Quotes:

Michael Weiss [42:17]: "We have a veritable team of rivals. I don't think it was intentionally a team of rivals as a team of rivals."

Tim Miller [36:07]: "The broad view, it's a veritable team of rivals."

Closing Remarks

As the episode wraps up, Miller and Weiss reflect on the potential long-term consequences of the current political and geopolitical shifts. They emphasize the importance of recognizing and addressing the rise of competent and radical elements within the conservative movement, as well as the broader implications for U.S. democracy and international stability.

Notable Quotes:

Tim Miller [69:08]: "The way things are going, it won't be the last."

Thomas Zimmer [25:19]: "Who knows, right? Who knows?"

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Notable Quotes Summary

• Zimmer [07:22]: "He now wants to mobilize government and use the coercive powers of government to impose a certain vision on American society."

• Zimmer [09:14]: "Russell Vogt calls it radical constitutionalism. Conservatism is no longer enough."

• Weiss [12:19]: "The hour is late," indicating an imminent collapse of America as perceived by radical conservatives.

• Miller [29:04]: "Keshe Patel is a conspiracy theorist. And even more than that, I think he is such a slavish loyalist to the president."

• Weiss [32:31]: "When Patel is promoting his children's book... he offered 10 copies in which he signed the books and added a special message, WWG1 WGA."

• Miller [48:09]: "Jelani has gone to war with ISIS many times. There's this weird thing where a jihadist is fighting transnational terrorists."

• Miller [55:58]: "HTS is like the Taliban, they are an authoritarian Salafist organization, but they legitimately want to govern and they want to have an administrative capacity."

• Miller [60:19]: "British intelligence estimates that over 700,000 Russian forces have been taken off the chessboard."

• Weiss [42:17]: "We have a veritable team of rivals. I don't think it was intentionally a team of rivals as a team of rivals."

• Miller [69:08]: "The way things are going, it won't be the last."

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Conclusion

This episode of The Bulwark Podcast offers a comprehensive exploration of the shifting dynamics within the conservative movement, the rise of radical constitutionalism, and the broader geopolitical ramifications of these changes. Through insightful discussions with Thomas Zimmer, host Tim Miller and guest Michael Weiss shed light on the emergent threats to liberal democracy, both domestically and internationally, emphasizing the need for vigilance and informed analysis in these turbulent times.

Transcript

[Tim Miller]

Oh, hear that?

[Michael Weiss]

Ah.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Okay. Thank you.

[Michael Weiss]

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[Thomas Zimmer]

Hmm.

[Tim Miller]

Well, not the ones you're hoping for.

[Michael Weiss]

You want squeals of delight?

[Tim Miller]

Happy tears? How did you. How did you know? And spontaneously written songs of joy. I so happy.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Oh, yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, yeah.

[Michael Weiss]

Hmm. Okay, this song needs a bit of work. But anyway, to get those reactions, make sure everyone on your list feels heard with handmade, hand picked and designed gifts from small shops on Etsy. Gifts like personalized jewelry, custom artwork, cozy style items, vintage pieces, and home decor.

[Tim Miller]

To celebrate all of your favorite people.

[Michael Weiss]

And their specific kind of special. For original gifts that say I get you, Etsy has it.

[Tim Miller]

All right, we're all set for the party. I've trimmed the tree, hung the mistletoe, and paired all those weird shaped knives and forks with the appropriate cheeses. And I plugged in the Bartesian. Bartesian. It's a home cocktail maker that makes over 60 premium cocktails, plus a whole lot of seasonal favorites too. I just got it for 50 off, so how about a Cosmopolitan or a mistletoe margarita?

[Michael Weiss]

I'm thirsty.

[Tim Miller]

Watch. I just pop in a capsule, choose my strength and.

[Michael Weiss]

Wow.

[Tim Miller]

Beginning to feel more seasonal in here already. If your holiday party doesn't have a bartender, then you become the bartender. Unless you've got a Bartesian. Because Bartesian crafts every cocktail perfectly in as little as 30 seconds. And I just got it for $50 off.

[Michael Weiss]

Tis the season to be jollier.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Add some holiday flavor to every celebration.

[Tim Miller]

With the sleek, sophisticated home cocktail maker, Bartisian. Pick up your phone and shake it to get $50 off any cocktail maker.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Yes, you heard me. Shake your phone and get $50 off.

[Tim Miller]

Don't delay.

[Michael Weiss]

Hey guys. We had a few technical and logistical difficulties on this show, but the show ends up turning out great. I think you're going to love it. You're going to learn a lot. We've got two very smart guests. As I mentioned yesterday, we are going to have Mark Hertling on to talk foreign policy, but we had a scheduling snafu so we switched that out. He'll be on again soon. And we've got Michael Weiss on to talk about foreign policy. And then we added to that Thomas Zimmer who is a historian who looks at democracy around the world and he wrote this great post on Substack about Russell Vote and kind of about the evolution of right wing thought towards this more post constitutional moment and why that is particularly scary and how that's evolved from the Tea Party days. Both guys are super smart. Then as a bonus, on top of that, on top of the scheduling staff, though, the power went out here in New Orleans during the podcast at one point. We have very, very strong, the best infrastructure here in these red states. You take the good with the bad when you do New Orleans. So you might hear a little difference in the audio quality between this and the interview. And then after the power goes out, the audio might change again. So apologies, we did the best we could. The content, though, the content is a plus. So stick around for the content and appreciate you. We'll be seeing you on the other side with Thomas Zimmer. Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. I'm delighted to be here today with a new guest visiting professor at Georgetown. He teaches 20th century U.S. and international history with a focus on transatlantic history of democracy and its discontents. We have many discontents right now. He writes Democracy Americana on Substack and the co host of a podcast, is this Democracy? It's Thomas Zimmer. How you doing, man? Welcome to the pod.

[Thomas Zimmer]

I'm doing well. Thank you so much for having me.

[Michael Weiss]

As people might notice, you're German.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Yes.

[Michael Weiss]

That is not a Kansas accent. So I welcome you to our great country, land of the free and our late constitutional republic.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Welcome as of yet still, I guess, right.

[Michael Weiss]

Still barely hanging on by a thread. I had reached out because you wrote a piece for your substack about Russ Vote called Meet the Ideologue of the Post Constitutional Right. And in it, you, you had an insight that I, I think some people, particularly on the left, Ms. It's kind of like this distinction of kind of this evolution of the right and the change of how they kind of see the world now versus maybe how the Tea Party right did or how, you know, the religious right may have in the 80s. So I kind of want to talk about that in an academic way. But first you also kind of go into Vogt's background. So for people who aren't familiar with him, let's talk about Russ Vogt, this super nerd, and why, why, why you might not think that the office and Management of Budget Director would be the person to be most concerned about, but you make a strong case for it. So talk to us about Vote.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Yeah, I mean, he is in many ways, I think he's had a fairly normal, if you want to call that career path as sort of a career operative who had positions almost at almost every level inside and around the Republican party in Washington, D.C. over the course of almost two decades. I think he's in his late 40s now, I believe. And he went from low level staffer to high person who is sort of pulling the strings in the background. He was a congressional aide, a part of the think tank and the lobbying machine, a campaigner, and then a member of the Trump administration. I think in terms of where he comes from, he used to be. People used to see him as kind of a fiscal hawk, you know, that sort of small government conservative who's looking for ways to, you know, cut the budget and maybe cut departments or whatever.

[Michael Weiss]

Cut red tape. Yeah. Singing my language.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Yeah, no, absolutely. So that's what he was known for. And then to me, he's interesting because he is, is, I think, very much emblematic of the trajectory of these kinds of people who very much talked about themselves as small government conservatives to people who now, whatever you want to call him now, that's not what he's talking about now. He now wants to mobilize government and use of the coercive powers of government to impose a certain vision on American society. These are the same kinds of circles who, when Barack Obama was thinking about using an executive order, called him a tyrant. And now, I mean, this guy, he himself has, will gladly tell you that he has drafted dozens, maybe hundreds of executive orders. So there's a trajectory there. And I think that is really worth getting into and sort of trying to understand what's going on there.

[Michael Weiss]

I think that's right. And so this kind of radical constitutionalism that he gets in, and he is emblematic of this trajectory because he was on the. It's not like, you know, I came from kind of the rhino, moderate, squishy Republican background. That was never him. Right. He worked for the kind of Tea Party types in the more. The more radical part of Congress. And so he was in some ways always on that trajectory. But like, the way that they talk about their political project has changed dramatically. The Tea Party, right, was, you know, and obviously there was a racial element of it with Obama and there were cultural elements to it, but they really were focused on kind of cutting the government, dismantling the government. Some of the language that you do still hear from like Elon and Vivek about Doge, Right. That we got to find efficiencies and all this. So that was really what it was focused on. It has evolved from there and they admit that it's evolved. Right. Like it is, it is a stated thing that there's a stated vision that they see the world differently now. So, so Talk about that and what's changed.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Yeah, I think what's interesting is that this language, he, he himself calls it radical constitutionalism. That's what he wants. That's what he says, what is needed now. And it's really quite interesting how someone like Russell Vogt, he will not even talk about himself and his own political project in the idiom of conservatism anymore. Like these people will tell you, conservatism is no longer enough. That is sort of the rallying cry of these kinds of circles. So he call what is now needed is radical constitutionalism. Because he says there is just nothing left to conserve. Right. So he would probably tell you, okay, so 20 years ago, this sort of traditional small government conservatism, that's what was needed if you were a constitutional conservative. But because in their understanding, the left, the progressives, the socialists, honestly, he uses all those terms interchangeably. It's all kind of the same. They have, in this understanding, completely taken over. They've taken over government, they've taken over all the major institutions of American life. They are in charge. And so now there is nothing left to conserve. So this kind of a conservatism of limits, a conservatism of preserving and conserving, that's just not good enough anymore. What you need now is counter revolution. They talk about this constantly. Counter. They call themselves counter revolutionaries. Right. So again, not at all in the idiom of conservatism. So what he will say is basically, look, what we did 20 years ago was the right thing to do at that point. But because this of leftist revolution has already happened and it has succeed, now what we're left with nothing short of a proper counter revolution will now suffice to save the nation and save real America. And whatever they talk about, and I think that is how they make sense of their own trajectory and how they would tell you this is not just hypocrisy or it's not just. There is no tension. It's just a reaction to the fact that the leftist revolution has succeeded and so now they have adapted to that.

[Michael Weiss]

There's nothing left to conserve is really the key line there. Right. And that the. I think you wrote that they believe that the natur order, the knocking view, the natural order itself has been destroyed. Right. And so if you put yourself in that view. Right. Where then you are the counter revolutionary that needs to tear everything down. And in a weird way, they've positioned kind of the democratic establishment as the small c. Conservatives in the traditional sense, not of like, you know, Pro life or whatever, but in the sense of, like, conserving the existing institutions, conserve, conserving, you know, the American republic. Right. And like that. They no longer see that as an important goal.

[Thomas Zimmer]

And it's not just the Democratic establishment, it's the Republican establishment as well. And it's even, like, Vogt will tell you that he thinks what the Federalist Society is doing is completely misleading. And that's just not good enough because they also like that type of originalism is also not good enough because it pretends we still have a constitutional order that you can preserve, but you can't. Right. And I think it's really important when he says. He constantly says we're in a post constitutional regime now. He doesn't just mean a kind of formalistic view of how, say, the different constitutional actors relate to each other. And it's not. It's. It's this idea of a natural, quote, unquote, natural order or a divinely ordained order that was supposedly enshrined in the constitutional order, supposedly enshrined in the nation's founding documents and that has been destroyed. So it's a much more fundamental, a much more. The stakes are so high, so existential for these people. Right. Because it's not just, oh, hey, should the administrative state do this or that. No, for them, this is just a manifestation of fundamentally, the natural order has been undermined by the radical left. Look, if you really believe this, if those are the stakes, right, if the constitutional order was the only thing that made America good and noble and kind of kept the evil forces of modernism and all that kind of stuff at bay, and if that has been destroyed, then, yeah, it totally makes sense to say, we can't just sit here and do, like, small government conservatism. We need to do something more. Right. We need to mobilize the coercive powers of the state against, you know, this sort of unnatural leftist enemy, and that's where this guy has sort of arrived.

[Michael Weiss]

Yes. If your brain has been so broken, did you believe that the entire American project was threatened by the existence of a black president, then yes, yes, it does make sense that you need to tear it all down rather than. Rather than go back to classical liberalism or the sunny Reagan optimism. A couple quotes from him, and then I want to get into kind of what that means for what their agenda might look like. He wrote this. This is after, I think, one of the Trump indictments. Do not tell me we are living under the Constitution. Do not tell me that these are mere political disagreements of Americans with different worldviews. This is only the most recent example of a post Constitutional America furthered by a corrupt Marxist vanguard. And then his other favorite line, and the favorite line of all these radicals is the hour is late to justify their actions. It means the collapse of America is imminent.

[Thomas Zimmer]

This idea that there's so little time left is just pervasive in these circles. They will constantly say this, this is our last chance. This is the one chance we got with Trump coming back to power. If we can reverse course now and make this counter revolution happen. It's not going to happen. I think the fact that he says Marxist, I think this was a post on sort of a lengthy post on X Twitter or something. What you just quoted that is so revealing. He really doesn't make any difference between socialism, Marxism, communism, liberalism, progressivism. It's all the same. It's all this kind of subversion of the natural order. You can't come to an agreement with those people. This is not someone who thinks about the political conflict in, like, democratic, small D, democratic terms. Right. Oh, you have a political opponent, you disagree with them and you kind of, you know, you kind of work it out. No, this is a fundamentally illegitimate, fundamentally anti American project that he sees on the quote, unquote, left that doesn't need to be like, bargained with, it needs to be destroyed.

[Michael Weiss]

I want to play a clip from that kind of secret video, the video with these undercover journalists. They're at the center for Climate Reporting where he talks about some of his plans and then get into that. So let's listen to this is Russ Vogt talking to some undercover journalists.

[Tim Miller]

80% of my time is working on the plans of what's necessary to take control of these bureaucracies. And we are working doggedly on that. Whether it's destroying their agency's notion of independence. They're independent from the president.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Vogt has also been preparing documents based on fringe legal theories arguing the president has the power to use the military against protesters.

[Tim Miller]

George Floyd obviously was not about race. It was about destabilizing the Trump administration. We put out, for instance, a 50 page paper designed for lawyers to know that the President has the ability both along the border and elsewhere to maintain law and order with the military. And that's something that it's going to be important for him to remember and.

[Michael Weiss]

His lawyers to affirm.

[Tim Miller]

But we've given them the case for that.

[Michael Weiss]

There are two important points in that bit that I want to focus on. One is where he talks about taking control of agencies that see Themselves as independent doj, FBI, et cetera. Who the hell knows, maybe even the Fed. Then that last bit where he talks about how the time that he's been spending on these memos that are designed for lawyers like that, they've been thinking about this and they've been thinking about the ways that they can use the current legal structure to advance their extralegal or post constitutional plans.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Again, this is not dismantling the state. Right. They want to do that. They want to get rid of the Department of Education, whatever. But what you heard there was no we're going to take over a government and we're going to do it by a purging, purging the government, purging the state of, you know, the leftists, the bureaucrats. And by the way, he sees all of these career bureaucrats, experts, as just part of the leftist takeover of government. And so he was, even in the first Trump administration, the biggest proponent of Schedule F, this presidential executive order that would convert thousands, maybe tens of thousands of career civil servants into political appointees and then make them fireable. That's what that is about. Right? And so that's what they want to do again, purge government, purge all these agencies, departments, every part of the administrative state of what they see as the enemy within, and replace them, replace them with loyalists. That was very much part of all the big right wing planning. Project 2025 being one of the big planning operations on the right is of this idea. We need to get rid of these people and we need to find our people to replace them with. That's one part of it. The second part is they're very clear that their project is fundamentally not popular. If you tell the American people what they actually want to do, people will say that sounds not great. So they know this will lead to protest or they are expecting protests. And I think when you hear Russell vote talk about. So if his biggest regret from the first Trump administration is precisely that in the summer of 2020, during the George Floyd protests, they did not invoke the Insurrection act to use the military to suppress those protests. And they're 100% clear this will not happen again. Next time we'll be ready. They think they had, you know, too many of those Federalist Society Rhino lawyers in and around the White House who kind of talked them out of this. Trump wanted to do this in the summer of 2020, but they didn't. They were sort of talked out of it by lawyers, legal counsel, whatever. And so they're 100% clear this must not happen. To us again, next time, we will absolutely use the military. We will invoke the Insurrection Act. And so that is what they've been preparing. That. That is sort of his. One of his biggest frustration is precisely this. We were much too lenient. We allowed protest. We shouldn't do this.

[Michael Weiss]

I think it's interesting that's one of his frustrations because, again, when people try to wrap your mind around this, it's like, okay, he's this nerdy guy with glasses. He's in charge of the budget department. It's like, you know, does it matter if he has some kind of fringe beliefs about turning the military against American citizens? And it's. And the answer is kind of yes. Right. Like the omb, like the management, the M part of OMB is important. And working with Stephen Miller and other people within the executive branch, it's kind of taking control of all of these agencies and ways that would give him some purview over cracking down on protesters. Yeah.

[Thomas Zimmer]

He himself calls OMB the nerve center of the federal government. And I think he's kind of right about this, or at least you can use it that way. It's always a question of, what do you want to do with these institutions and agencies. And for him, and I think you saw this again in the first Trump administration. He became director of OMB in 2019, and some of his greatest hits were he held up military aid to Ukraine because Trump wanted to pressure the Ukrainian government into delivering dirt on Joe Biden. He directed billions of dollars from the Pentagon to Trump's border wall fever dream. He was the most aggressive proponent of Schedule F. So this is a powerful position if you want to use it that way. And he absolutely sees it as a kind of position where you can bend the entire machinery to the will of Donald Trump. And that is, I mean, to be clear, he really sees Donald Trump as a gift from God. That's how he describes him. Literally, a gift from God. Someone who is precisely the right kind of radical figure to lead this counter revolution. He is entirely devoted, bending the entire machine to Trump's will.

[Michael Weiss]

Yeah. And it's important to add to that because he also is a radical on cultural issues.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Michael Weiss]

Like you said, get from God. Like he specifically says, I think in another clip from that interview, which I didn't play about, like, reinvigorating Christian nationalism and infusing the administration with Christian nationalist views. And I think the budget will also have views on that. And this ties to your point about how they know it's unpopular. Like, there are Ways that they kind of might be able to reduce access to contraception and change rules via HHS in ways that advance their religious and cultural agenda without having to pass unpopular bills through Congress.

[Thomas Zimmer]

This is another reason why Vote is important or interesting, because he is competent. He knows how government works. And I think in the first Trump administration, there was this saying, oh, malevolence tempered by incompetence. As we're once again of looking at what we're in for with the second Trump administration. And we see a lot of fundamentally incompetent people because Trump insists on nominating them. But then on the other end of the spectrum, there's people like Russell Vogt who, he knows how government works and he knows how to make it work. I mean, I think people tend to think that sort of the extremists, the Nutty MAGA people are also incompetent. And conversely, when you go up on the competence scale, you tend to go down on the nutty ideology scale. But that's again, and if you look at some. Someone like this, this is a truly committed ideologue, right? He really means this kind of stuff. He's fundamentally not on board with any kind of pluralistic vision of a democracy in which people have disagreements and they kind of, you know, try to come to some sort of, I don't know, consensus or understanding. No, he's not on board with that. He's a truly committed ideologue, but he's also very competent. And so these are the more, in that sense, I think these are the more dangerous people that we need to worry about.

[Michael Weiss]

It is tough to find people that are both competent and radical. That's what makes them so noteworthy. You had one other post on your subject that I just wanted to talk about a little bit. It was from about a week or so ago now. And so the news has changed a little bit, but it was partially in response to President Biden's kind of smiling first day of school picture fest with incoming President elect Trump and kind of tying it to Joe and Mika going to Mar A Lago and Bezos and Zuckerberg went to Mar A Lago. And like all of the, all of this people who are presumably at least small l. Liberal that had opposed Trump, that are participating in this anticipatory obedience already. So, you know, talk about that and why we're seeing that and why you have concerns about that, particularly in the context of kind of your work looking at authoritarianism around the world. World.

[Thomas Zimmer]

I'm concerned about this also. Honestly frustrated, because I think Modern society and sort of complex modern societies and modern states are difficult for any authoritarian regime to kind of bring in line, even if they're fully competent. But, you know, since the election, I think ostensibly anti maga political leaders and liberal institutions have kind of really assisted the Trumpists in kind of bringing the machinery online in line. I'm not saying Biden should completely sabotage the transition. That's not the position. Right. You have to worry about state capacity and you have to worry to some extent about norms and precedents. Fine. But why do you need. Why didn't you do a photo op with the first lady on the premises of the White House? This sort of signals normalcy to people. Right? It signals to people it can't be that bad. If Trump really was, I don't know, a fascist, whatever, or like a fundamental acute threat to American democracy, Joe Biden and Joe Biden wouldn't be doing that, would they? So this is signaling normalcy. It signals a kind of, of accommodation to power, a kind of acquiescence. And the best example, honestly, is the way the kind of Musk Ramaswamy joined the so called Department of Government Efficiency has been treated where you have Democratic governors go on Fox News to say, oh, this is really interesting. We really need to do something about government waste or whatever, as if this was kind of a good faith effort at government reform. Come on. It's. It's like it's not. Right. It's not.

[Michael Weiss]

And a real organization or, you know.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Yes.

[Michael Weiss]

Something without a Paw Patrol logo.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Yes. Or you have like Bernie Sanders just a few days ago praising Musk for supposedly, like pushing back against the military industrial complex. What are we doing here? This is the kind of legitimization and normalization of these people that we. No, we shouldn't do this. Right. We should be very clear that this is not a department. First of all, it has no legal constitutional authority. And these people are not good faith actors actually concerned about, you know, a government efficiency. So we shouldn't be sort of normalizing it in that way, because we will at some point. Right. I believe things could get potentially really bad in the second Trump administration. And at that point, we will need people, the American public, to actually not look at Trump as like a totally normal president, a totally normal administration. But we will need them to be clear about. No, these are dangerous, fundamentally anti democratic forces that are in charge of American government right now. And we need to think sort of clearly and grapple seriously with how do you deal with that. And I don't think the right way to deal with that is just signal normalcy and pretend, oh, we're in a normal transition.

[Michael Weiss]

Yeah. And particularly for no gain is, I guess, what it comes down to for me. It's one thing if you know, who the hell knows, like, what the future holds. You get into the fall and they really do want to cut government waste. And like there's some program that Bernie and Hila that they agree on and you work together on a bill or that goes through the normal process, like, okay, okay, but to just do it for a press release, like, to give them legitimacy and to just do a smiley photo op to give them legitimacy for no gain for yourself, you know, I mean, like, I think that probably the best way back for power for the Democrats is a failed Trump administration. Not working with the Trump administration on stuff. This doesn't mean that there won't be moments to work with them and there won't be times where you have a responsibility to the public. But to do it now for no political gain seems rather misguided. I agree with that. Okay. Thomas Zimmer, thank you so much, man. He's visiting professor at Georgetown. It's democracy Americana on substack, the podcast. Is this democracy? Let's stay in touch as our, as our democracy teeters or is restored. Who knows?

[Thomas Zimmer]

Who knows, right? Who knows? Thank you so much for having me on. Thank you.

[Michael Weiss]

I thanks so much to Thomas Zimmer. Up next, friend of the pod, Michael Weiss. I have to tell you about this game changing product I used before a night out with drinks. It's called pre alcohol. Let's face it, after a night with drinks, I don't bounce back the next day like I used to. You're telling me. So I have to make a choice. I can either have a great night or a great next day. That's until I found Zbiotics Pre alcohol zebiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for your rough next deck. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. You know, during the pre Thanksgiving episode, I gave some uncharacteristic advice, which was that maybe less is more. With alcohol around the holidays, you know, especially if there's any tense feelings, political or otherwise, in the family in those instances. Well, I'd say the best to only have one drink. I received a couple of emails from people who took that advice and said it worked out for them. So there you go, Teetotaller Tim. There's, you know, we can turn over a new page in life. That said, once the holidays were over, I was back home in New Orleans. I felt like it might be time to give a little bit of different advice when you're on the home front. And so I've got a couple concerts I'm on. Want to go out with a couple buddies, have some Christmas parties. And when I do that, it's important to turn to Z biology before I go out and start drinking so that I can be nice and fresh for the podcast. So with the holiday season upon us, with all those holiday parties, I'm guessing some of you are going to be consuming a bit more alcohol than usual. With pre alcohol, you can stay on track and not let the season throw you off course. So go to zbatics.com thebullwork to learn more. And get 15% off your first order when you use the bulwark at checkout. Zebatics is backed with 100% money back guaranteed. So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zbiotics.com thebullwark and use code thebullwork at checkout for 15% off. All right. And we're back with kind of ad hoc foreign policy correspondent Michael Weiss, editor of the Insider, a Russia focused independent media outlet. He's also the host of the Foreign Office podcast, former investigative reporter for cnn. How you doing, man?

[Tim Miller]

Good, man. How are you?

[Michael Weiss]

So much happening in the world, apparently we have a coup in South Carolina. South Carolina.

[Tim Miller]

South Carolina.

[Michael Weiss]

We might have a coup in South Carolina. We have a coup in South Korea. As we're taping, things are happening in Syria. You've been doing a lot of reporting on Syria. I want to get to that. The protests in Georgia, Russia and Ukraine. But foreign policy starts at home. So I need to pick your brain a little bit on some of Donald Trump's appointments for we've got a friend, Cash Patel, who's been nominated to be the head of the FBI, even though we have an FBI director that his term doesn't expire till 2027. You posted this on the X platform. The FBI arrested more than 1200 January 6th insurrectionists who falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen. Now the bureau is about to be headed by a man who agrees with them. Morale will be the first thing to disappear at this law enforcement agency, but not the last. Talk about that a little more.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, look, I mean, the FBI traditionally is a culturally conservative institution. A lot of Republicans are FBI agents. There are a lot of Republicans who support Donald Trump and who thought that the investigation into Russia's attempt to sway the 2016 election wasn't a righteous one. So there's divisions within the bureau about a lot of stuff. But when you have somebody whose avowed remit as the incoming director is to dismantle the so called deep state, to hollow out basically our first line of defense, not just for counterterrorism, but counterintelligence, the infiltration of hostile foreign actors. I mean, just today the FBI released the indictment of a woman who it turns out was an FSB officer, or agent rather, who had infiltrated the DC think tank circuit. I mean, we have a lot of problems in this country, country, and let's tear it up and start all over again is not a good starting point for somebody who's going to be heading one of the, not just a law enforcement bureau, but one of the key constituents of the intelligence community. And yeah, Keshe Patel is a conspiracy theorist. And even more than that, I think he is such a slavish loyalist to the president and willing to do whatever Donald Trump wants. John Bolton, a guy I'm not super fond of quoting, I think had a fairly good line, which is this is going to be Trump's berea, which is Joseph Stalin's head of state security, and then rather famously overthrown himself when Stalin died. I don't think Bolton is using those words lightly. I think that there is a great deal of fear and mistrust in terms of morale at the bureau. I mean, a lot will depend on what he actually does on day one. A lot is also going to depend, frankly, on this is a sprawling government agency like any other. It has bureaucratic mechanisms in place. It has people who are professional law enforcement officers, but also civil servants who know how to stop radical change from happening at least overnight, whether or not those bulwarks and sort of institutional obstacles remain in place. I don't know. I'm hearing that, that they were very much in place during the first Trump administration. So a lot is going to depend on that. A lot also, frankly, is going to depend on the president's own feelings about the FBI. So prior to this appointment I was hearing scuttlebutt and take this with a pinch of salt, but that actually his relationship with the Bureau has improved somewhat because of the assassination attempts on him. And I would add to that also because there is not, so far as we know, an active counterintelligence investigation into his activities with various and sundry foreign governments. So he may decide that actually now the bureau is doing a good job.

[Michael Weiss]

That Egypt money, that Egypt bag investigation is over.

[Tim Miller]

And also, look, I mean, keep in mind, the Iranians are still gunning for Donald Trump. It's the FBI that's stopping the IRGC from killing him. And Iran he has no love for, as we well know. Right. Russia's a different story, perhaps, but it's just a terrible appointment for so many reasons. And again, I mean I've yet to see the impact day of but right now I'm getting a real sense of foreboding from people both working in the FBI, but also who have left the FBI and are certainly aware of the culture.

[Michael Weiss]

Two thoughts on what you said there. One about the Patel being a conspiracy theorist. We covered this pretty thoroughly with Elena Potte Colabro yesterday, but there was this one nugget that I had missed that I think it's worth sharing with everybody. When Patel was promoting his children's book about King Donald who was persecuted by his political affoes, he offered 10 copies in which he signed the books and added a special message, WWG1 WGA where we go one we go all which is the QAnon slogan. So he was like signing children's books for people with, with the QAnon slogan. I mean, like it's, he's not exactly, it's not like he's like a casual conspiracy theorist. He's one of the main promoters of the right wing conspiracy theories that led to Pizzagate and January 6th and on and on.

[Tim Miller]

And QAnon is absolutely the subject of investigation by the FBI, right? So I mean, this is the problem when you're big upping, when you're amplifying the very enemies of the United States that the agency you are now meant to head is meant to be keeping tabs on and arresting when they commit crimes. I'd say that's a big problem, wouldn't you? I'd say that's perhaps even a national security breach. And this is what I mean. And also, look, you know, there's a list of people that the enemies list that Trump and his confederates, including Patel, have compiled, which include former FBI officers and directors. And you Know, again, G men don't like it when you start going after their own kind. There is a camaraderie that obtains here, even if there is, as I mentioned earlier, disputes about protocol and practice. And look, I'll give you one data point which I think is kind of revealing. So because of the aftermath of the Crossfire hurricane investigation, the Mueller report, and then Trump's attempts to not just relitigate this, but dismantle it, dismantle the very premise and raise on debt for these things, which was rooted in legitimate counterintelligence concerns, morale took a beating at the bureau such that, I mean, I was told that agents who should be applying for 302s and, you know, doing surveillance and going through all of the paperwork and bureaucratic protocols to do their job and surveil subjects or persons of interest decided, you know what? Juice ain't worth the squeeze because I don't want to be hauled before Congress or have my name outed in the New York Times and then start to have my family swatted by Maga and QAnon crazies. Right. So imagine what's going to happen now when you have to answer to correct that happened already. I mean, I don't know.

[Michael Weiss]

And it's happening currently.

[Tim Miller]

It's happening. And yeah, there's going to be a lot of early retirements, I would expect. Yeah. A lot of people who just don't, they're not going to want to have to put up with this and they're going to be fearful for not just their livelihoods, but, you know, as I said, being doxed and exposed as perfidious agents of the American Stasi or whatever the hell these people are portraying them as.

[Michael Weiss]

I know I've already been talking to some agents that are experiencing that type of targeting during this transition, but just broadening it out beyond Cash and you have Tulsi at DNI and Hegseth potentially at dod. It's a little bit of a mixed message you get with having then Waltz and Marco in other positions.

[Tim Miller]

The broad view, it's a veritable team of rivals.

[Michael Weiss]

I don't think it was intentionally a team of rivals as a team of rivals. If you're thinking about it as like the panel on the five, you know, you want to make sure you have all of the points of view represented from a fox news panel, Infowars and WikiLeaks.

[Tim Miller]

Team of rivals. Yeah.

[Michael Weiss]

Yeah. But the same issue with Patel, I think, has to be a question like with your sources across, you know, all the national security posts, across the intelligence agencies, across the law enforcement agencies. And I just wonder, like, what people are thinking, how people are processing this, what they're expecting, what concerns are at the broadest sense about this team that Trump's bringing in.

[Tim Miller]

Well, look, a lot of people, first and foremost, are concerned for, am I going to receive a paycheck? What's going to happen to my pension? You don't want a president coming in and saying, I'm going to fire everybody. And even if legally, there's no grounds for this, it's the harassment, it's the concomitant effects of declaring somebody an enemy of the state. So, you know, I have, in my reporting on the gru, on Russian intelligence, on Havana Syndrome, gotten close to a number of former CIA officers, one of whom is Mark Polmropoulos, who, I'm not afraid to say, has become a very good friend of mine. Mark doesn't know if he is going to be here on January 20, meaning should he stay in the United States? Because lawyers are telling him and telling others who signed that letter questioning the veracity of the Hunters Biden laptop story. Maybe you should cool your heels abroad somewhere for the foreseeable future, just because Trump and his team have made it very clear that these guys are in their sights. Now, that is a pretty terrifying prospect, that people who worked for the CIA, the FBI, or other government intelligence law enforcement bodies who guard us while we sleep, who have done things on behalf of this country they cannot talk about, but should it ever come to light, and it always does down the line, when the history books are written, are decorated heroes for a reason, suddenly they become targets of their own government. I mean, the sense of betrayal, the sense of treachery that they must feel, and also the deterrent effect that this will have on people volunteering to go to work for these services. Right. And even more to the point, and this is something that comes up constantly.

[Michael Weiss]

And there's like an Adam Smith effect, there's a deterrent, but also who it draws, who it draws as people are.

[Tim Miller]

Drawn, and also the ability to recruit and run assets in the field. I mean, if you're, let's say you're a gru.

[Michael Weiss]

This is a really great point with Tulsi. Use Tulsi as an example. And if you're an asset, how you might be processing that right now.

[Tim Miller]

Right? So Tulsi Gabbard, who has made no mystery about her feelings about Bashar al Assad, Russia's gruesome intervention in Syria, and other things which, which should raise the eyebrow of the ic is now going to be the head of the office of the Director of National Intelligence. So MAGA politics, who, or I should say MAGA adjacent Republicans who don't particularly like the cut of her jib are trying to persuade people. Well, it's just a coordinator role. It's kind of like a sinecure. Don't worry, she's not going to make policy. Bullshit. She prepares the presidential daily briefings. So what the President sees on a day to day basis in terms of here are all the national security threats in the world she will have purview over. She has the ability to declassify intelligence, which she can do rather selectively to advance an agenda. And this is somebody who has gone to Damascus, taken tea with Assad, a genocidal dictator who's used chemical weapons against his own people, come back and said, he's our friend, we should support him. Now, if you're the CIA and you're trying to recruit Syrians, which I know you want to get into the discussion of what happened in Aleppo, it might be a good time, might be a good time to start doing that. Are you going to think twice, three times, four times, about whether or not this Assadist, who's now sort of the wrangler of 18 different intelligence services, might declassify intelligence that could expose you, out you and put you in harm's way? Very real harm's way in a country like Syria, I should say, you probably are going to think two, three, four times.

[Michael Weiss]

Or same with Russia.

[Tim Miller]

Same with Russia. If, let's say, you're a GRU colonel in Moscow and you want to become what's called a defector in place, which is to say you don't actually skedaddle to the west and get resettled, but you stay in your job in Russian intelligence, but you're an informant, you're an agent of the CIA. You've seen what Putin will do when the US government is not working against their own assets. I mean, look at what he's attempted to do on US soil with respect to defectors here. Look at what he did to Sergei Skripal, who was an MI6 agent after he had him in custody in a Russian prison for many years, pardoned him, released him in a prisoner trade, he still dispatched agents, officers, rather to go and poison him with a military grade nerve agent years later. Right? So you already have that kind of damper on going to work for the other side. Now all of a sudden you have a credible suspicion that people who are working at very high levels of the American intelligence community aren't exactly co and might be secretly or not so secretly sympathetic to the government you're trying to betray. This is going to have an impact. It probably already has done.

[Michael Weiss]

And what about the intelligence sharing with our allies? I think it's a potential issue. Right.

[Tim Miller]

Look, there is no closer intelligence relationship in the world than that between the United States and the United Kingdom. Right. I mean, the Anglo American special relationship, I would say starts there at the intelligence level. It's almost like we one country in that respect. I have heard from people who former but not so former on the British side. We are probably not going to be giving everything. Knowing some of the people who are coming in now, that is. I mean, I wish you had somebody who's worked in, say the CIA or the NSA on the podcast next to me because I'd love to hear their reaction to that. That is a staggering development. And that's just the uk which as I say, I mean, other countries that don't have as close of a relationship with the United States are also going to feel very much the same way. I mean, I've been hearing from people in NATO intelligence services, particularly after the Gabbard appointment. You know, what the fuck is happening?

[Michael Weiss]

Well, let's do that in January before Mark flees the country. Maybe we'll have him or somebody on with you in January. Let's make that a date. Longtime listeners of the POD are familiar with, you know, kind of my love hate affair with the neighborhood cat Aretha that we have quasi adopted and that we definitely feed, which ended up working out with the new sponsor of our podcast, Smalls. Smalls cat food is protein packed recipes made with preservative free ingredients you find in your fridge and it's delivered right to your door. That's why cats.com named Smalls their best overall cat food. Smalls was started back in 2017 by a couple of guys home cooking cat food in small batches for their friends. A few short years later, they've served millions of meals to cats across the United States, including Aretha. It's a boy named Aretha, which I might have mentioned before, came up onto the porch. Originally we were playing some Aretha Franklin. I don't know why we assumed it was a girl. You know, loving girls, girls being cooler maybe was why. Learned later from folks who've been in the neighborhood a little bit longer that Aretha was in fact a boy. But you know, this is kind of the boy named sue vibes with that cat so we stuck. We stuck with the name. The cat is now just like coming up to the house to get fed every day. So we've created a mutual relationship between Aretha and Smalls and us and my child. It's nice for me, actually. I don't have to get her a cat for Christmas. Don't tell to lose. All right, at this point you might be wondering, why can't I just feed my cat kibble? Believe it or not, your cute kitty descended from ferocious desert cats who hunted live prey for food. And your cat isn't any different. They still need fresh, protein packed meals to be at their best. So give your cat the gift of great cat food this holiday season. Head to smalls.com thebullwork and use promo code thebullwork at checkout for 50% off your first order plus free shipping. That's the best offer you'll find. But you have to use my code thebullwork for 50% off your first order. One last time. That's promo code the bulwark for 50% off your first order plus free shipping. I want to get back to the Syria developments because this is the part of the podcast where almost this whole podcast is you educating me. But like, you know, I at least have ideas of things in these other spaces. Like the Syrian rebel attack on Aleppo happens over the weekend. I'm seeing this in the news and I know literally nothing. So we're going for, you know, remedial what is happening in Syria? Lessons from Michael Weiss right now. So let's start.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, so let's put it this way, this did not happen out of nothing. This is a very opportunistic set of events which I think I wrote a piece with my ISIS book co author Hassan Hassan. We call it a unique kincaidination of circumstances. So let's start there. Number one, what's happened in the region over the last year? Well, Iran has fallen apart. Its regional strategic project, the so called ring of fire around Israel. The projection of its power in the form of paramilitary organizations and militias. Most important of which its prize asset Hezbollah, utterly decimated. Senior leadership of Hezbollah has been wiped out, including Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, if you believe the Israelis. They've taken out 80% of Hezbollah as arsenal of short and mid range rockets. Hamas has been destroyed in Gaza, although that's more limited. But by and large the IRGC has taken a pounding. And the IRGC was largely responsible as the ground army for Assad's recapture of so much territory in the last decade. I mean There was a point at which it looked fairly credible that Damascus could fall to a consortium of different rebel groups, including those backed by the CIA, backed by some Gulf Arab states, backed by Turkey, and even backed by Jordan. CIA ended its program several years ago under the first Trump administration. We have no assets in place here except in one base in southern Syria at Al Tamf. So former Free Syrian army rebels we recruited and are stationed there. And mostly they're there to kind of monitor Iranian shenanigans in that part of Syria. Syria. But we have no skin in the game except in eastern Syria, where we are there strictly in a counterterrorism capacity to fight isis. So we have this group called the Syrian Democratic Forces. They are led by Syrian Kurds that are aligned with the pkk, which is a designated terror organization. But we like to pretend that it's not because they're really good at fighting isis. What has happened now is a former Al Qaeda franchise. And I'll get into why we know it's former, which has spent the last several years creating a state apparatus in northwest Syria, Idlib province, and a state apparatus that does things like controls the traffic, electricity grids, had a Covid relief plan. Jihadis who do sort of technocratic governance, believe it or not, they have been champing at the bit to go on the offensive against Assad because they realize he has never been weaker than he is now. As I mentioned, his. Not his strategic partner, his patron. The Iranians are a busted flush, more or less. The Russians are, as you may have noticed, preoccupied elsewhere. And so they have been asking their patron, the Turks. The Turks control the border crossings in northern Syria, at least in this part of the country. They pay the salaries of HTs, the group I alluded to. They give them weapons. They have garrisons in Idlib, including with artillery that are there to protect HDs. HTs, sorry, from Russian and Syrian onslaught. The Turks have kept them at bay for several months, saying, no, we don't want you go on the offensive.

[Michael Weiss]

Can you talk to us about why the Turks are sponsoring them? Can we get just a brief aside on the Turkish perspective here?

[Tim Miller]

So the Turks have absolutely no problem lying down with Sunni Islamist radicals, particularly those who will advance. Turkey has one overriding national security concern in Syria, and that is the aforementioned pk. And for many years, since our counter ISIS mission got underway, 2014, Turkey has been pissed off at the United States for partnering with, as I say, a designated Kurdish terrorist group, designated by the US not just by Turkey, by the way, which Turkey has been on and off at war with for 40 years. This is what started as a separatist movement inside Turkey. These guys, their headquarters is the Kandil Mountains. But the Syrian branch or affiliate of it is now our eyes and ears on the ground in eastern Syria to contain and ensure that ISIS does not come back and rebuild the caliphate. So the Turks have maintained. This is ludicrous, this is contradictory and also insulting. We are a NATO ally and it's like if Turkey had come to Mexico and started building an Al Qaeda franchise. That's how they compare it.

[Michael Weiss]

All right, Michael, so right as you're explaining to me, all the different geopolitics, all the different sides here, the power goes out in New Orleans because we have ID Lib level infrastructure here, down here in our beautiful.

[Tim Miller]

No, Idlib level infrastructure is better than you have in New Orleans.

[Michael Weiss]

Apparently better. So anyway, my question was that I was trying to give the answer. You're talking about the Turks and their role here in supporting the rebels. What I'm trying to understand is so on the one hand the Turks main security concern is the PKK and the Kurds, which are US backed. Right. And so A, why isn't the US more concerned about the groups that the Turks are backing and B, what is the strategic imperative for the Turks then in going after Assad and the Shia and the Iranian backed groups?

[Tim Miller]

Well, the answer to your first question is the US is deeply concerned about the groups that Turkey has sort of given patronage to. So I need to be a little bit more specific here. I'm trying to keep broad. So Turkey has its own consortium of slash ex Free Syrian army members and frankly just mercenaries that they have built over time, known as the Syrian National Army. I refer to them in the piece as their new Janissaries. If you know your Ottoman history, they've dispatched these guys abroad to foreign conflicts, including Libya, where the SNA has fought General Khalifa Haftar's army there, which is backed by Russia too. So Turkey has been sort of projecting its power using proxies that it's recruited and built up over time as part of I think frankly their own regional hegemonic designs. Right. Erdoan in many ways fashions himself as a new sultan. He wants not a recreation of the Ottoman Empire, but definitely he wants to make Turkey great again. And this is part of that process. Project HTS in Idlib is headed by Jelani. Jelani was sent into Syria in 2011 by Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, who at the time was the head of the, what was known as the Islamic State of Iraq. Abu Bakr al Baghdadi wanted Jelani to start creating the ISI franchise in Syria, which as we know, became isis. Jelani, though, had his own grand designs. He's megalomaniac. He is a native Syrian, unlike Baghdadi, who's Iraqi. And over time, he decided not only would he break with ISIS and create his own show in Syria, which is known as Jabhat Al Nusra, but when Jabhat al Nusra became an Al Qaeda franchise, he played similar games with Ayman Al Zawahiri, the head of Al Qaeda after Bin Laden's death. And what it started as, a kind of public relations gambit I'm breaking with Al Qaeda, actually became a legitimate rupture with Al Qaeda. Now the U.S. sanctioned HTS and Jelani. There's a bounty on his head because they don't trust him and they think that this guy's a terrorist. But it gets complicated because HTS has fought the actual Al Qaeda franchise in Syria known as Hurrahs Al Din, and he has gone to war with ISIS many times. So there's this weird thing where a jihadist is fighting transnational terrorists that we're more concerned about than some, some scruffy little Syrian national jihadist organization, which perhaps is not so scruffy anymore, thanks to many years of indulgence by Turkey. And the fact that Jelani has evolved in the sense that he understands the way to win hearts and minds in Syria and to do the kind of state building enterprise that Bin Laden and Baghdadi could never achieve because they were too brutal or backward, requires a softer touch. So I would say that what HTS is like is the Taliban, right? They are an authoritarian Salafist organization, but they legitimately want to govern and they want to have an administrative capacity. So Jelani has seen Assad's hollow shell of a regime over the last several years and been champing at the bit to go on the offensive and to take him on. Because of events in the Levant, particularly as I mentioned earlier, the weakening of Iran's strategic project because of Russia being distracted. They still have plenty of military assets in place in Syria. But Putin isn't all in in Syria anymore because he's got bigger fish to fry in Ukraine. Jelani sensed an opportunity. Turkey for several months kept him at bay. Don't go on the offensive. Why? In the midst of all of this, Turkey and Syria have been engaged in a kind of paidou of reconciliation talks. Turkey wants to make a deal with Assad whereby Assad and Turkey jointly. But really Turkey leading the charge, eliminate the PKK as a threat to the Turkish border region. Right? And for several months, actually several years, since about 2017, the Russians have brokered negotiations. The Russians would love nothing better than to see Turkey welcome Assad in from the cold, because that's a preliminary for sanctions relief. And also the international recognition of Assad. He's made deals, he's been normalized with all of the Gulf Arab states, but Turkey is the holdout. And again, it all comes down to the Kurdish question with the Turks. Finally, in the last month, MbS, the Saudi crown prince, tried to organize a face to face meeting between Erdogan and Assad, and Assad snubbed him. So Assad, who is this petulant pygmy in Damascus, who has mortgaged his country to Iran and Russia, who one third of the country is an American protectorate and the northern half of the country is a Turkish protector, completely at cross purposes with one another. He thinks that he is an equal player to Putin and Erdogan. He thinks that this is a peer contest. And Erdogan and Putin disagree on many things, but they have this kind of bromance, right? They're strategic rivals going back to his for historical reasons. I mean, the Crimean War, the Black Sea region, they don't. Turks don't want the Russians there and vice versa. As I mentioned, Turkey sent the SNA to Libya to clean a Russian proxy's clock. Turkey has helped the Azerbaijanis in Nagorno Karabakh, which meant that's where Russian peacekeepers, right, were on the ground there. And yet every time Erdogan and Putin punch each other in the face, their respect for each other only increases. They have several things in common. Number one is a deep, abiding contempt for the United States and the west, which they see as culturally bankrupt. Number two, they love to make their Assad bend the knee and they would love to show him who's boss. So Turkey finally threw its toys out of the pram and said, screw IT. They let HTs off the leash. The SNA, their janissaries are also part of this offensive. And here's what nobody, I think even Jelani, the head of hts, reckoned with how easily it would be to take Syria's second city.

[Michael Weiss]

Another comparison to the Taliban, the rebels.

[Tim Miller]

Before this, yes, from 2012, but really up until the mid teens of, of the last decade, it took them years to. I was in Aleppo in 2012 when the, when it began to fall to the rebels. I was in the Baba Hadid quarter, which I think a week or two earlier, before I got there, it was Ramadan, had fallen to a consortium of different rebel groups. These guys basically just waltzed in, the regime evaporated, it crumbled, they ran away. And now HTS finds itself the keeper of not just, just I think all of Idlib province is now theirs, but most 90 plus percent of Aleppo province. And now they're going on the march in Hama where if they, they really do make a play for Hama City, that's going to be very difficult for Assad and his backers because that poses a strategic threat to the hold on power and it certainly poses a threat to Russia's main interests, which are their two coastal bases, Latakia, they have an air base there and Tartus, it's their only warm water port. And also there's a naval base there. So that, that could actually tilt the scales against HTS and I guess this broader Turkish project. But they're doing incredibly well for an insurgency, albeit one with the supervision and the kind of invisible hand of a major state power, a NATO power. And the United States is sort of nowhere to be seen here.

[Michael Weiss]

I want to get to the Russia part of this to close the pod, but just on the US it seems like we're nowhere to be seen here because we don't have I who are we rooting for? Not to put this into sports terms, but it doesn't seem to be like a clear benefit on either side of this to the US interest.

[Tim Miller]

Right. So the National Security Council put out a statement, sort of mild delight at the fact that Assad's sort of getting buffeted because as they said in the statement, this is what you get from relying on Iran and Russia happy in a way to see Iran's clock further cleaned by hts. But there is no love for this organization. Right. They're a designated terrorist group. A lot of people in the IC believe everything that I've just told you about Jelani state building. That's all just a figly for Al Qaeda light or Al Qaeda curious, as I think Mark Polymeropoulos put it on msnbc. So it remains to be seen if Jelani what he is angling to do because he has also become a student of geopolitics and recent international events I mentioned he's sort of modeling himself in the Taliban. Well, since we withdrew from Afghanistan, the Taliban is the de facto ruler of the country. The United States is still engaged with it to implement the Doha Accords and also frankly to keep Tabs on ISIS K's franchise in Afghanistan. Taliban is at war with ISIS K. Russia is basically on the cusp of recognizing the Taliban, diplomatically lifting sanctions. I mean, Putin is on the record saying these guys are the de facto rulers and they're our ally in counterterrorism. So Jelani is saying, saying, oh, I want some of that, get me some of that Taliban.

[Michael Weiss]

Putin might just switch sides.

[Tim Miller]

Exactly. He's like, I am your ally in counterterrorism. I fight isis, I fight Al Qaeda, I have no quarrel with Iraq. I mean, it's kind of extraordinary because ISIS is a genocidal organization that thinks all Shia, the Rafa, they are only meant to be put to the sword. Jelani is saying to Shia led Iraq and the militias which are built by Iran, stay out of my country and I'll leave you alone. That's heresy to isis. And yet this is part of his kind of pragmatic approach. Now, whether he's successful or not, I have no idea. I mean, you want to lose a bet, try to predict what's going to happen in Syria, right? But a lot of people did not see this coming, least of all, I think the American government. And now we're kind of like, hey, my name's Paul and this shit's between y'all. Like, we have no skin in the game.

[Michael Weiss]

Let's see how it plays out.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, except to protect again the SDF in the east and ensure that ISIS remains down and out there.

[Michael Weiss]

The tide to Russia here, as you alluded to a couple times, obviously Russia being distracted, shall we say in Ukraine, but also weakened, I think relates to the Assad weakening. So I'm curious your view just on the other news out of Russia recently is the crashing of the ruble and their economic stability teetering? And so I'm curious your view on just that. The domestic status in Russia and as well as the status and the latest in the war in Ukraine.

[Tim Miller]

Look, everybody, I ask, how long can Russia sustain this war? Let's start with their losses in manpower and materiel. British intelligence estimate that over 700,000 Russian forces have been taken off the chessboard. This is unbelievable. Extraordinary. I mean, it dwarfs what they lost in Afghanistan, which of course help precipitate the collapse of the Soviet Union. And yet it's Russia has this sort of, we have this conception of it, like Mary Poppins handbag. You just keep pulling stuff out, you know, it's just at disproportionate level to the actual physicist.

[Michael Weiss]

Is that true? I saw some, I saw the tech you can never trust what's on the Chinese spy. But I saw some TikTok videos of the Russians conscripting people at clubs was this.

[Tim Miller]

I have no doubt that's true. I mean, and also they're offering them ever greater incentives in terms of salaries. I mean, you could live like a king on the money that you would get, except for the fact you're going to be sent to a front and turned into hamburger. Right. They're also, though, I mean, to underscore their manpower problem. I mean, you don't go recruiting North Koreans if you're doing well and winning a war. Right. So 10,000 plus North Koreans now incurs, possibly already deployed to Ukraine. They're tricking Indians into becoming mercenaries for them. They've recruited Cubans, they've recruited now Houthis, according to the Wall Street Journal. So they're trying to throw as much into this micro as possible. And their losses are staggering. At the equipment level, too. I mean, I've lost track. There are people who study this stuff on an hourly basis. But it's again, you would think that this is not sustainable. And yet, and yet Putin doesn't care. They are pressing ahead in Donbas, making more gains in the last month, maybe two months, than they have since the start of the full scale invasion in 2022. The Ukrainians are beginning to see the writing on the wall that, okay, look, Trump is coming in, in. We might not have unlimited security assistance. Everyone wants to cut a deal, but what kind of deal? You know, we need to have leverage over the Russians. And then there's this kind of fingers crossed hope that the economy in Russia simply collapses and that's going to have some immediate impact on the battlefield. No doubt it'll have an impact on the battlefield. I'm a little bit skeptical and wary of people who tell me, though, that it's going to be game over for Putin, because I've heard that for many, many years. I mean, it used to be if the price of oil drops below $100 a barrel, that's it, his regime is toast. That was like 15, you know.

[Michael Weiss]

Yeah, right.

[Tim Miller]

So I would take kind of these projections with a pinch of salt. But, you know, look, the Ukrainians are absolutely, you know, ecstatic at developments in Syria because that's weakening their strategic adversary and they're hopeful that it's going to redeploy or SAP even further attention away from what's happening on their soil. There's also a weird kind of like resignation about Trump in Ukraine. Ukraine, I mean, I have to tell you, like in the last few weeks, what I'm hearing from inside the Biden administration about how the Biden administration really didn't want to win this war. It wanted to sort of manage the conflict. How an overriding fear of Russia's loss of the war in Ukraine and also collapse of Putin's regime is what's guided everything.

[Michael Weiss]

Kathy Young wrote about this in the Bulwark today. I'll put it in the show notes.

[Tim Miller]

And this is going to come out. I mean, knives have been sharpened over the last several years and I think they're being unsheathed now. And I mean, I tell you, like Jake Sullivan, who gets better press than anybody I've ever seen as a government official. I mean, it's like you can't write about him without saying lantern jaw Jake Sullivan, who on Monday masters the topography of Inner Mongolia and on Tuesday can tell you the trading value of the Again, I think that that sort of hagiographic style is going out of fashion real quick.

[Michael Weiss]

Yeah, we've got to run. And I think your dog is sending a message to us that she or he has heard enough always or say it's a guard dog worried about Mark and worried about those having to flee that had a warning.

[Tim Miller]

Well, he's a puppy so he's always going off about something.

[Michael Weiss]

My final just thing on this is just a quick follow up on that. The Ukrainian acceptance, I guess, or coming to terms with Trump coming. What, what does that look like? What does that mean, you think? Just acceptance that there's going to have to be a negotiation or acceptance that they're going alone or acceptance of what?

[Tim Miller]

It's driven by several things. Number one, they think they know Trump because they've had to deal with him before. There's an element in Ukraine that says, well, remember this guy gave us Javelin anti tank missiles when Obama wouldn't. He sanctioned Nord Stream 2. There are actors in place. I mean, you mentioned Rubio and Waltz. Kellogg is an interesting character, too. The Ukrainians respect him. They see him as sort of a Cold War hawk.

[Michael Weiss]

He's crazy maga, but also pro Ukraine and he understands the Russians. Good news for Ukraine, maybe bad news for protesters in America.

[Tim Miller]

Right. I mean, there is a great deal of wariness about people like Gabbard Patel doesn't factor in for them. But J.D. vance, though, is the problem. And you'll notice when Zelensky gave an interview to the New Yorker several weeks ago ago, it's unfathomable for Zelensky to say anything untoward about any American official. But he said that Vance was, quote, too radical. And what that means really is he knows that the people who Vance has surrounded himself with would love nothing better than to just forfeit Ukraine to Russia.

[Michael Weiss]

Yeah, pull the plug.

[Tim Miller]

Right. But then there's a sense that, well, okay, Trump is going to come in with sort of these highfalutin expectations for some masterful, beautiful peace deal with Putin, and Putin's going to do what he does with everybody, which is rat fuck them, and Trump is going to get angry and then Trump is going to sort of release the hounds. That's how the Ukrainians see it.

[Michael Weiss]

That's the hope.

[Tim Miller]

That's the hope. And also this is driven, though. And again, I would love to live in that world.

[Michael Weiss]

That's sweet, though.

[Tim Miller]

I love optimism, yes, but it's driven by a great deal of frustration bordering on contempt for the Biden administration. Biden was great with the optics. And solidarity rallying allies and security assistance has come. Right. I mean, we're now giving Ukraine weapon systems that we said would have precipitated World War Three in February of 2022. But the Ukrainians say not only did World War Three not happen, and now you know it, we should have had those weapons before the full scale invasion.

[Michael Weiss]

Bill Kristol gave the Bulwarkian pessimistic view of that potential outlook, which is that Putin rat fucks him and continues to press forward with his conscripted soldiers. And while the US Abandoned them, he.

[Tim Miller]

Has really no intention of stopping the war. And his overriding, well, the US Abandons Ukraine.

[Michael Weiss]

I meant like, rather than that making Trump mad and unleashing the dogs, it leads Trump to just say fuck it.

[Tim Miller]

The only thing, I mean, let's just be very kind of realistic here. So Ukrainian sentiment has shifted. There's a huge morale problem now, whereas there wasn't before. There's desertion in the wreck ranks. Whereas there wasn't before. Incoming recruits for the Ukrainian army are old. They don't want to fight. They cannot fight as well as younger men. A lot of the best, most battle tested soldiers were killed in places like Bakhmut and so on. Ukrainians will not. And Zelensky cannot afford politically to do a deal with the Russians unless there is real security guarantees. Not like a Budapest Memorandum kind of thing where like, you know, we, we pledge to consider maybe one day bringing Ukraine into NATO. So the term he's using is now the umbrella of NATO security. Well, what does that mean, realistically? What it means is boots on the ground, British, French, Polish, Scandinavian, Estonian soldiers basically guarding a ceasefire line, ensuring that another attack on Kyiv cannot happen. And in Europe, people are beginning to seriously discuss this. Kayakalas, who's now a Eurocraft and in a very sensitive position in Brussels, a high powered one at that, is talking openly about this. So the Europeans, I think, sense that, okay, you know, they were more expecting of a Trump victory than I think a lot of people in the United States were. So they've actually kind of resigned themselves to what's going to happen in this country. And that means more of the onus shifts to them both in terms of support, material support for Ukraine, diplomatic support, and then, yes, putting their money where their mouth is and telling the Russians thus far and no farther on the.

[Michael Weiss]

Battlefield, we'll see how it plays out. There will be many more, I think, unfortunately for us and for the Ukrainians, for the world, opportunities for us to get reports from you. Michael Weiss. So thanks for coming on in a pinch at the last second here. Really appreciate you and the puppy. And I do believe it's the first mention of the Janissaries on the Bulwark Podcast and they got several shout outs today. So appreciate you.

[Tim Miller]

The way things are going, it won't be the last.

[Michael Weiss]

All right, my friend, we'll talk to you soon. Take care and thanks also to Thomas Zimmer. We'll be up tomorrow another edition of the Bulwark Podcast. See y'all then. Peace. Why does the sun go on shining? Why does it see Rush to show don't they know it's the end of the world?

[Thomas Zimmer]

Cause you don't love me anymore.

[Tim Miller]

Why.

[Michael Weiss]

Do the birds go on singing? Why do the the stars go up?

[Thomas Zimmer]

Don't they know it's the end of the world? It ended when you said goodbye.

[Tim Miller]

Why.

[Michael Weiss]

Does my heart go? Why do these eyes of mine cry?

[Thomas Zimmer]

Don't they know it's the end of the world?

[Michael Weiss]

It ended when you said goodbye. The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

[Tim Miller]

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[Thomas Zimmer]

I'm thirsty.

[Tim Miller]

Watch. I just pop in a capsule, choose my strength and wow. It's beginning to feel more seasonal in here already. If your holiday party doesn't have a bartender, then you become the bartender. Unless you've got a Bartesian, because Bartesian crafts every cocktail perfectly in as little as 30 seconds. And I just got it for $50 off.

[Michael Weiss]

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[Thomas Zimmer]

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[Tim Miller]

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[Michael Weiss]

Yes, you heard me.

[Thomas Zimmer]

Shake your phone and get $50 off.

[Tim Miller]

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[Michael Weiss]

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[Tim Miller]

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[Michael Weiss]

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[Tim Miller]

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[Michael Weiss]

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[Tim Miller]

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