The Bulwark Podcast – January 23, 2026

Episode: Mike Murphy: We’re Living in a Nightmare
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Mike Murphy

Episode Overview

In this lively and irreverent episode, Tim Miller welcomes veteran Republican strategist and “Hacks on Tap” co-host Mike Murphy to dissect the surreal state of American and global politics in the Trump 2.0 era. Their conversation covers Trump's bombastic "Davos" performance, the so-called “Board of Peace,” the lasting consequences for America’s global alliances, the psychology of today's GOP, the economic and regulatory whiplash, and fallout in places as varied as Gaza, Detroit, and Minnesota. Throughout, Murphy provides biting commentary, historical analogy, and inside-the-room humor, while both he and Miller ponder the future for America, the Republican Party, and leading Democrats like Gavin Newsom.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. Trump's “Davos” Performance & Foreign Policy Farce (01:55–07:56)

• Trump's “Board of Peace” as Alternate UN
  Murphy and Miller roast Trump’s “Board of Peace,” describing it as a parody of international diplomacy involving corrupt strongmen and human rights abusers.

  • Quote, Mike Murphy [03:19]:
    “He shops at Bogino Menswear, which is a hot new Trumpian outlet for that kind of Hugo Boss take over the Polish ghetto outfit…what I think all the foreign leaders were saying in a wonderful orchestra of different language, which is, ‘what the fuck?’ Because we now have the superpower…run by a crackpot egomaniac child.”

• Global Reaction:
  Foreign leaders are aghast, forced into “double whiskey” sessions after meetings—with long-term destabilization for alliances.

  • Quote, Murphy [04:32]:
    “We’re living a nightmare right now. It’s got a shot clock on it, but it’s a nightmare.”

• Nightmare with a Shot Clock
  Miller notes, as a minor solace, that Trump's antics might be time-limited as he eyes a “New World Order” sinecure when his term ends.

  • Quote, Miller [05:04]:
    “It does seem like he is positioning himself to be kind of head of the New World Order after he leaves, which is nice. I want him to have an exit plan.”

2. Enduring Global Damage and American Retreat (06:29–10:01)

• Deepening Damage, Fragile Atlantic Alliance:
  Murphy predicts long-term harm to alliances (“we’ll be cleaning up Trump horseshit all over geopolitics, the economy, everywhere else”), as European allies may drift toward nuclear self-sufficiency, and the world gets “dent and dings” that will not be easily fixed.

• GOP Collapse, The “Know Better Caucus”:
  Discussion of how even security-focused Republicans (Marco Rubio, Dan Crenshaw) have marched in lockstep with Trump, abdicating any principles once held about alliances and democracy.

  • Quote, Murphy [08:34]:
    “They deserve a special hot seat when we have the Home Improvement Commission hearings afterward…The Vichy Republican Party, unfortunately.”

3. Trump's Reckless Foreign Policy: Ukraine, Iran & No-Strategy Agenda (10:01–12:41)

• Trump’s Transactional, Egotistical Approach:
  Murphy explains that Trump lurches from headline to headline, with no coherent strategy except tariffs (“which of course is stupid and crazy”).

  • Quote, Murphy [10:48]:
    “Trump chases headlines, you know, he thinks like whoever writes the wood for the New York Post…”

• Consequences for Ukraine and Iran:
  Trump blames others (Zelensky) for Ukraine crisis, briefly saber-rattles at Iran, then backs off for a personal deal, all leaving allies and protesters exposed.

• Aging, Unhealthy President:
  Observations about Trump’s apparent physical decline at Davos, and how even that’s obscured in propaganda.

  • Quote, Miller [11:41]:
    “It was the left hand this time that was very bruised. …every once in a while having a mysterious bruise. This happens as you get older, but that’s a pretty big one on the hand. I don’t know.”

4. The 2026 Political Landscape & Polls (13:42–16:28)

• Voter Coalitions Reset:
  Recent polling shows Trump's support has “snapped back” to traditional lines after swings among young, Black, and Hispanic men.

  • Quote, Miller [13:42]:
    “All of these new folks…have now snapped back…what happened is that there was a group of people that thought Biden was a mummy and that they didn’t like their grocery store bill, and that was basically it.”

• Both Parties Making Tone-Deaf Economic Claims:
  Both Trump and Biden have floundered by telling voters their economic perceptions are wrong.

  • Quote, Murphy [15:20]:
    “Biden really got in trouble by telling everybody, you’re wrong. The economy’s great…So Trump’s doing the same thing…He’s telling them what they know is wrong. And in politics, that is the grease pig way to go over the cliff.”

5. J.D. Vance: The MAGA Vice President (16:28–21:55)

• Vance’s Strained V.P. Persona:
  The hosts lampoon Vance’s awkward, tone-deaf speeches (“You don’t turn the Titanic around overnight”), schoolmarmish scolding, and his unpopularity even among MAGA diehards.

  • Quote, Miller [16:56]:
    “What was that metaphor? You don’t turn it around or you don’t raise it from the bottom of the…”

  • Quote, Murphy [21:33]:
    “Oh God, he’s gotta hate [Vance].”

• Prediction of Intraparty Strife Post-Trump:
  Murphy predicts Vance will be scapegoated for midterm “failure,” and forecasts open party warfare for the 2028 nomination.

6. Economic Policy—Regulatory Whiplash, Corporate America, Auto Industry (23:04–34:44)

• Business Elite’s Blind Spot:
  Tim plays a revealing Ken Griffin quote lauding Trump for “ending government friction,” prompting Murphy to lament CEOs’ myopic fixation on quarterly profits over democratic stability.

  • Quote, Murphy [24:54]:
    “What it comes from is the Biden administration did overregulate…And then they take the huge leap and it’s all short termism. …But we don’t have NATO anymore. Putin and the Chinese are running the table.”
  • Quote, Murphy [27:44]:
    “Trump is a lefty UK Labour Party guy in the 70s…I’m going to nationalize it, I’m going to tariff it and I’m going to control everything.”

• Auto Industry Policy: Contradictions & Consequences:
  Trump’s haphazard approach—removing environmental regs, imposing tariffs—offers short-term profit but long-term disaster versus China’s relentless EV push.

  • Quote, Murphy [31:09]:
    “The most beautiful thing in production is the North American integrated auto chain, Canada, US, Mexico, and he’s done everything he can to screw that up.”
  • Quote, Murphy [32:13]:
    “If we don’t compete in EVs…we’re British Leyland.”

• Government Equity Stakes:
  Miller flags the unprecedented step of the US govt taking equity stakes in 11 companies. Murphy slams Trump’s business acumen, referencing his casino stock flop.

  • Quote, Murphy [35:34]:
    “Trump went public once in his casino empire and pumped the stock…then it crashed…the principal is horrible.”

7. ICE, Immigration, and Rising State/Local Pushback (35:54–41:03)

• Minnesota and ICE Raids:
  Discussion of aggressive ICE tactics—including the detainment of citizens—sparks outrage; Murphy calls for maximal local/state resistance and likens it to American Gestapo tactics.

  • Quote, Murphy [37:15]:
    “I’m for pulling guns, I’m for settling this really…I mean, you know, that’s a pretty extreme. But they’re scooping up American citizens like the Gestapo.”
  • Quote, Murphy [39:49]:
    “He’s trying to build a Praetorian Guard, federal thugs, and it’s time for states to step up and local authorities.”

• Hypocrisy of “Don’t Tread on Me” Crowd:
  The right’s abandonment of small-government principles is lampooned.

  • Quote, Miller [40:02]:
    “It’s amazing how many of the Don't Tread On Me flag waivers have, like, you know, kind of crossed out the don't and replaced it with, like, tread on me, comma, daddy in this situation.”

8. Democratic Futures: Gavin Newsom, Record, and Ballot Fights (42:04–50:30)

• Newsom’s Aggressive Anti-Trump Strategy:
  Murphy credits his current “Trump-slapping” as useful for base-priming, but warns it won’t sustain. The real test is pivoting to bigger, future-oriented ideas before 2027.

  • Quote, Murphy [43:29]:
    “He’s the number one Trump slapper among base Democrat voters through the midterms. And then it’ll get very old very fast…”

• California’s Brand—Asset or Liability:
  The two hash out whether California’s progressive record handicaps Newsom. Murphy asserts that the “future guy” narrative can work, but only if Newsom learns from, rather than simply defends, California’s mistakes.

• Wealth Tax Debates:
  Discussion of a planned “one-time wealth tax” ballot measure; Murphy argues it will drive out billionaires, cost jobs, and is “eminently beatable.”

  • Quote, Murphy [49:41]:
    “This thing is badly written. And I think if it makes it to the ballot…it’s eminently beatable and I hope to be part of beating it, frankly, I think it’s horrible policy.”

9. Cultural Rot: Trump Era Appointees and Government Decay (51:37–54:11)

• Cash Patel & The Deterioration of Government Leadership:
  The hosts roast reports of Trump’s FBI Director demanding jet ski meetings and entertainment over substance—“The Beverly Hillbillies” in high office.

  • Quote, Murphy [52:46]:
    “The legacy of the Trump thing will be the worst staff people in the history of the American government. ...He hid in his plane for an hour because he couldn’t find the right tough guy jacket to wear to some photo op.”

• International Alarm:
  British officials are “stunned” by Trump’s crew and urge Americans to realize the global importance of competent US leadership.

• Macabre Humor About the Queen and Trump’s Health:
  Jokes about the physical state of Trump and even a comedic aside about the queen’s hands.

Notable Quotes & Moments (by Timestamp)

• Murphy [03:19]: “We now have the superpower…run by a crackpot egomaniac child.”
• Murphy [04:32]: “We’re living a nightmare right now. It’s got a shot clock on it, but it’s a nightmare.”
• Miller [13:42]: “All these new folks…have now snapped back.”
• Murphy [15:20]: “Biden really got in trouble by telling everybody, you’re wrong. The economy’s great…So Trump’s doing the same thing.”
• Murphy [27:44]: “Trump is a lefty UK Labour Party guy in the 70s…I’m going to nationalize it, I’m going to tariff it and I’m going to control everything.”
• Murphy [31:09]: “The most beautiful thing in production is the North American integrated auto chain, Canada, US, Mexico, and he’s done everything he can to screw that up.”
• Murphy [37:15]: “I’m for pulling guns, I’m for settling this really…I mean…But they’re scooping up American citizens like the Gestapo.”
• Miller [40:02]: “Tread on me, comma, daddy…”
• Murphy [49:41]: “This thing is badly written. And I think if it makes it to the ballot, I think it’s eminently beatable…I think it’s horrible policy.”
• Murphy [52:46]: “The legacy of the Trump thing will be the worst staff people in the history of the American government.”

Tone & Takeaways

The episode crackles with Murphy’s sardonic wit, historical references, and barely concealed outrage at the current state of GOP politics and governing. Miller matches him with sharp, irreverent questions and various pop-culture flourishes, making the analysis both highly informed and highly entertaining.

For those who want a sense of both how abnormal current politics are and what it feels like “from inside the room,” this is essential listening (and reading).

Suggested Timestamps

• [01:55] Trump at Davos, “Board of Peace” as farce
• [06:48] Lasting effects on US alliances
• [08:34] The “Know Better Caucus”/Vichy Republicans
• [10:48] Trump on Ukraine, Iran, headline-chasing
• [13:42] Snapback polling: Trump’s coalition and economic attitudes
• [16:28] J.D. Vance: VP and party politics post-2026
• [23:39] Ken Griffin and the business class’s view of Trump
• [31:09] Auto industry: tariffs, China, and EVs
• [35:54] ICE's actions and local/state response
• [42:04] Gavin Newsom and Democrat strategy
• [49:41] California wealth tax proposal
• [52:46] Cash Patel and the state of government leadership

Check out Mike Murphy on “Hacks on Tap” and follow The Bulwark for more reality-based, unapologetically pro-democracy analysis.