The Bulwark Podcast
Episode: Robert Kagan and Marianne Williamson: Slipping Into Dictatorship
Date: February 4, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guests: Robert Kagan (historian, author, Brookings fellow), Marianne Williamson (author, activist, former Democratic presidential candidate)
Episode Overview
This double-header episode features two guests from very different backgrounds—historian and foreign policy expert Robert Kagan, and author/activist Marianne Williamson—brought together by their concern over America's democratic backsliding and shifts on the global stage. The first segment with Kagan takes a critical look at the unraveling of US international leadership and the mounting risks of authoritarianism at home, especially under a second Trump presidency. The second segment with Williamson delves into the emotional, economic, and spiritual undercurrents feeding national discontent and explores how our moral compass and grassroots activism might chart a road forward.
Segment 1: Robert Kagan – U.S. Global Leadership and the Threat of Dictatorship
1. The End of the Post-WWII Order
[01:47–09:00]
- Kagan’s Thesis: Trump and his movement are openly celebrating the end of America’s postwar international leadership, advocating for a return to a “spheres of influence” world—one in which the U.S. withdraws and other powers dominate their regions.
- “Trump is now taking us ... back to a world that looks a lot more like the world that existed before World War II ... where everybody’s fending for himself, and that’s a much more dangerous world for the United States.” – Kagan [02:39]
- History Lesson: Kagan notes the “long peace” in 19th-century Europe was not truly peaceful, featuring major wars each decade. A return to multipolarity would likely mean more frequent major wars.
- Spheres of Influence Logic: The idea is both simplistic and dangerous. It means sacrificing the independence of nations like the Baltics, Poland, Korea, and much of Southeast Asia to Russian and Chinese domination.
- “They’re basically selling out all kinds of very significant populations ... to put them under the thumb of Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin.” – Kagan [05:50]
2. What Happens to U.S. Allies?
[08:11–12:52]
- Allies Will Not Tolerate Abandonment: Traditional allies (Europe, Canada, Australia, Korea) likely won’t acquiesce to U.S. withdrawal and economic extortion. Instead, they’ll become adversaries or at least distance themselves from the U.S.
- “They’re going to go from being in the allied column ... to adversaries ... public opinion is incredibly hostile to the United States right now.” – Kagan [09:00]
- Global Alignment: Historically, America thrived partly because of its global network of allies—something China historically lacked. Under Trumpism, America would lose that network, potentially becoming “America against everybody.”
- China’s Perspective: Kagan suggests China may interpret this moment as a window to achieve long-term goals (like Taiwan) due to American retrenchment, foreseeing possible aggression in the next few years.
- “I think both [Xi and Putin] may see the next few years as a window of opportunity.” – Kagan [13:27]
3. Democratic Party Shifts and the Limits of American Leadership
[15:45–18:48]
- Even Democrats Are Turning Inward: Biden and the Democratic Party have grown more protectionist and less globally engaged, a trend that predates Trump. Donor and voter fatigue with foreign adventures is widespread.
- “By traditional standards in the postwar period, Biden was a pretty protectionist president.” – Kagan [18:31]
- “Let us get to the point where we have a different administration in 2028. I don’t think we’re going to have fair elections in 2026, so...” – Kagan [18:48]
4. Slipping into Dictatorship – Election Subversion Fears
[19:40–27:31]
- Kagan’s Warning: Trump will not “allow himself to lose” the 2026 midterms because his power would be threatened. Kagan is alarmed by the rapid transformation of the Justice Department and the federal government into instruments of Trump’s will.
- “They took a democratic system and basically dismantled it in one year.” – Kagan [20:16]
- Election Manipulation Scenarios: Use of ICE for intimidation, the invocation of the Insurrection Act, “nationalizing” elections, and months-long delays—all designed to ensure power is retained, not necessarily by outright stealing, but by creating chaos.
- Republican Party's Loyalty: Kagan bluntly frames the GOP as “the party of dictatorship now.”
- “The Republican Party is the party of dictatorship today. ... Everybody knows Trump is trying to create a dictatorship and the Republicans are down with it. ... So who's going to stop these guys? The court? Supreme Court?” – Kagan [22:33]
5. Can Institutions or the Public Push Back?
[23:22–29:14]
- Tim’s Pushback: Tim Miller argues that overwhelming losses in elections can make them “too big to cheat,” and points out some moments where institutional or public resistance did make a difference.
- Kagan’s Warnings About Power: Despite the hope, Kagan stresses the outsized power of the executive under Trump, the effectiveness of intimidation (especially via ICE), and the historic tendency of courts to defer on “national security.”
- “At the end of the day, things are about power. ... These guys are wielding force and they have a near monopoly of power.” – Kagan [25:04]
6. Militarization, Middle East Policy, and American Media
[31:56–35:53]
- Trump’s Militarization: Kagan warns military action abroad increasingly serves not foreign policy, but domestic political goals—consolidating power, feeding a militarized national identity, and justifying repression.
- “They are trying to militarize American society in many ways, and it goes with the use of the military abroad and also the sort of desire to use the military at home.” – Kagan [31:56]
- Bombing as Political Theater: He is skeptical of the efficacy of bombings (esp. Iran/Venezuela), seeing them as self-serving gestures, not serious strategic actions.
- “This is all about Trump. It’s about his glory. It’s about, look at me, I can bomb places.” – Kagan [34:42]
- Media Complicity: Kagan discusses the Washington Post’s decline as another instance of institutional capture and elite accommodation to power.
Segment 2: Marianne Williamson – The Spiritual and Emotional Roots of America's Crisis
1. State of the Nation and the Spirit of Resistance
[37:47–39:12]
- Dire Assessment: Williamson calls the present “catastrophic,” a “dark chapter in American history,” but holds out hope for eventual renewal—“not soon,” but in time.
- “It will go down in the history books as one of the darkest chapters ... I hope ... there is still an American democracy. I think there will be, ultimately ... but not real soon.” – Williamson [38:34]
- Faith in the People: The “spirit” in America's DNA, evidenced by grassroots resistance in places like Minneapolis, is the long-term hope.
- “What has not fallen are the people of Minneapolis. That is our Lexington and Concord. ... They have created a template.” – Williamson [39:16]
2. Why Williamson Ran for President – Democratic Party’s Disconnect
[40:35–46:43]
- Witness to Widening Despair: Williamson describes 40 years of traveling the country and seeing crisis become the rule for too many.
- “The problem wasn’t just that they were diagnosed with cancer. The problem was that they didn’t have health insurance ... I heard that horror story from doctors as much as ... people.” – Williamson [41:07]
- Elite Insularity: The party’s “decision-makers” are remote from ordinary Americans—ensconced in “Sun Valley, the Hamptons, Georgetown, the Upper East Side.”
- Petri Dish for Demagoguery: Mass misery becomes fertile ground for strongmen and dysfunction.
- “When you have that much misery ... it becomes a petri dish out of which all manner of societal dysfunction and personal dysfunction is absolutely inevitable. That includes attraction to a political strongman.” – Williamson [42:34]
- Why She Ran: Neither party was speaking to this pain authentically; Democrats offered “no hope” versus Trump’s “false hope.”
- “People will go with false hope before they'll go with no hope.” – Williamson [44:33]
3. Emotional Connection and Party Shortcomings
[45:03–47:44]
- Democratic Elites and Incrementalism: Williamson and Tim agree Bill Clinton was the last nominee to show true emotional connection, but even the Clinton era marked the party’s shift to incrementalism: helping “until the point where ... [it] would challenge our own donor base.”
- Disconnect with the Base: Party elites underestimate, ignore, or overrule the grassroots. Republicans, by contrast, maintain a more direct (even if manipulative) connection.
4. On Debates, Media, and Democratic Process
[49:31–50:58]
- Chafed Process: Williamson critiques the party/media complex that closed ranks behind Biden, canceled debates, and suppressed intra-party discussion, to the detriment of party excitement and legitimacy.
- “That's not a Democratic process. ... We have a political media industrial complex ... they think they have the right to make the decisions for the American people.” – Williamson [49:50]
5. Democrats and Lost Demographics
[52:28–56:00]
- Who Did the Party Lose?: Discussion of shifting male voters and former wellness demographic followers who drifted to RFK Jr. or even Trump. Spiritual/wellness communities felt unheard or belittled by Democratic orthodoxy.
- Masculinity and Economic Crisis: Economic instability wounds male self-worth—an insight Williamson draws from her time pastoring a blue-collar Michigan parish during the 2008 crash.
- “For men, it just is a fact. ... Their sense of self worth and self esteem is so much more tied to work.” – Miller [56:00]
- “For a man to feel disrespected, particularly in his home, I’ve seen it over and over and over again.” – Williamson [56:16]
6. On RFK Jr., Vaccines, and Wellness
[57:52–59:55]
- Dangers of Anti-Vax Rhetoric: Williamson clarifies her past positions, distancing herself from anti-vaccine stances and expressing dismay at RFK’s turn and his alliance with Trump.
- “Of course we should have childhood vaccines and all of that. ... Nothing justifies playing along with Donald Trump in my book.” – Williamson [58:12, 59:27]
7. Foreign Policy and the Rise of Permanent War
[61:41–64:59]
- Department of War: Noting the Trump administration’s symbolic renaming of the Department of Defense, Williamson laments America’s deepening reliance on militarism, the marginalization of diplomacy, and the near-erasure of USAID and soft power.
- “We have militarized our whole idea of foreign policy. ... We have a military tech industrial complex.” – Williamson [62:11, 62:40]
- “I'll tell you what's naive. What's naive is thinking we will even have a reasonable chance of surviving ... if we don't at least try [to center love and democratic values].” – Williamson [63:19]
8. Afghanistan’s Women and U.S. Moral Failure
[64:59–67:15]
- Aftermath of Withdrawal: Williamson criticizes not just the departure from Afghanistan, but how it was done—ignoring and abandoning women and allies.
- “The problem was not just that we left, how we left ... Even the left was like, no, no, no, we have to leave ... And even now [they] will not stand up for [Afghan women].” – Williamson [65:48]
9. Spiritual Healing, Political Renewal, and Moral Foundations
[67:46–72:14]
- Not Just Policy—A Moral Awakening: Williamson argues our crisis can only be solved by a renewal of national moral purpose rooted in the Declaration of Independence, not technocratic “white papers.” It requires taking responsibility, not just blaming others.
- “Our job is not to wake other people up. Our job is to wake up.” – Williamson [67:46]
- “Every great social justice movement in the history of the United States ... was based in religious and spiritual circles.” – Williamson [71:00]
- “We have lost our emotional connection to the deep moral [and] ... philosophical intent of the Founding Fathers as expressed in the Declaration of Independence.” – Williamson [72:00]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
With Robert Kagan
- “Trump is now taking us ... back to a world ... where everybody’s fending for himself, and that’s a much more dangerous world for the United States.” [02:39]
- “They took a democratic system and basically dismantled it in one year.” [20:16]
- “The Republican Party is the party of dictatorship today. ... It’s the party of dictatorship now. So who’s going to stop these guys?” [22:33]
- “At the end of the day, things are about power. ... They have a near monopoly of power.” [25:04]
With Marianne Williamson
- “It will go down in the history books as one of the darkest chapters in American history. ... I think there will be [a democracy], ultimately, but not real soon.” [38:34]
- “When you have that much misery ... it becomes a petri dish out of which all manner of societal dysfunction ... [including] attraction to a political strongman.” [42:34]
- “People will go with false hope before they'll go with no hope.” [44:33]
- “Our job is not to wake other people up. Our job is to wake up.” [67:46]
- “Every great social justice movement ... was based in religious and spiritual circles.” [71:00]
Key Timestamps
- 01:47 — Kagan’s introduction and the “end of the Grand Bargain”
- 05:50 — “Spheres of influence” and the cost to democracy
- 13:27 — China’s “window of opportunity”
- 19:40 — Kagan’s alarmism on dictatorship and election rigging
- 25:04 — Deep dive into the wielding of federal power
- 31:56 — Militarization of US society and Trump’s foreign policy
- 37:47 — Marianne Williamson joins; state of the nation as catastrophic
- 40:35 — Williamson’s motivation for her presidential runs and party critique
- 45:03 — Emotional connection and incrementalism in Democratic policy
- 49:31 — Lack of Democratic debates and media complicity
- 52:28 — Discussion: Democrats losing men and the wellness demographic
- 61:41 — Threat of endless war & the Department of Peace vs. Department of War
- 64:59 — Women of Afghanistan, left’s avoidance of ethical responsibility
- 67:46 — Spiritual vs. policy response: Healing through moral renewal
- 71:00 — American justice movements’ spiritual roots
Tone and Energy
- Kagan: Alarmed but analytical, laying out “worst-case scenario” concerns about American democracy, global alliances, and the abuse of power.
- Williamson: Poignant and earnest, focusing on undercurrents of suffering, lost moral vision, and the need for both material and spiritual reckoning.
Summary
This episode gives listeners a bracing examination of America at the crossroads: Kagan warns against the unraveling of a 75-year-old international order and the rise of authoritarian rule at home; Williamson diagnoses a nation in spiritual and economic crisis, calling for a renewal that begins at the grassroots. Both converge on a message that democracy is not a given—it requires vigilance, adaptation, and a re-centering of collective moral purpose.