The Bulwark Podcast – Episode: Ron Brownstein: Don't Take the Bait
Release Date: January 17, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Ron Brownstein, Senior Editor at The Atlantic and Senior Political Analyst for CNN

Introduction

In this episode of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller welcomes Ron Brownstein, a seasoned political analyst renowned for his expertise in electoral data and demographic shifts. The conversation delves into the aftermath of the 2024 election, exploring the factors that influenced voter behavior, the impact of California's devastating fires, and the broader implications for the Democratic Party moving forward.

California Fires and Climate Change

Tim Miller opens the discussion by addressing the severe wildfires in Los Angeles, highlighting the widespread devastation and the long road to recovery for many residents.

Tim Miller [03:08]:
"When you think about it, there were the two largest fires. One was on the heart of the west side, and one was on the heart of the east side. So it feels like everybody in LA knows people who have been displaced or faced these unimaginable losses."

Ron Brownstein [03:48]:
"It's a nightmare. I keep hearing from friends and people out there... total devastation."

The conversation emphasizes the urgent need to address climate change, noting that these fires are a stark reminder of the escalating environmental crises facing major urban centers.

2024 Election Analysis

Economic Dissatisfaction vs. Cultural Issues

The core of the discussion centers on the 2024 election results, dissecting whether the Democratic losses were primarily due to economic dissatisfaction or a shift towards Donald Trump.

Ron Brownstein [04:45]:
"A considerable majority of the country was dissatisfied with the results they got from the Biden presidency... voters more or less treated him as one in that, through American history, when people are unhappy with the way things are going, they vote for the other party."

Brownstein draws parallels between Trump’s 2024 victory and historical precedents, comparing him to presidents like Dwight Eisenhower and Grover Cleveland who successfully led after their predecessors.

Tim Miller [08:55]:
"Let that make me want to hang up the podcast. Mike, to be honest, a quarter of..."

A notable point was the significant number of voters who, despite holding concerns about Trump’s extremism and authoritarian tendencies, still voted for him due to overarching economic frustrations.

Ron Brownstein [11:31]:
"Non-college white women who supported legal abortion but were negative on the economy, they voted 2 to 1 for Trump."

Voter Shifts and Turnout

The episode explores the dynamic between voter turnout and shifts in voter preference, highlighting that both factors played a role in Trump’s success.

Ron Brownstein [27:15]:
"Some of them were people who voted for him in 2020 and didn't come back, and some of them were new people who came out and voted for Trump."

This dual impact underscores a broader dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, where economic concerns outweighed cultural issues for many voters.

Implications for Democratic Strategies

Ron Brownstein [25:46]:
"Democrats have to avoid taking the bait on all of the cultural fights Trump provokes and really try to center their messaging over the next two years on the core argument that he promised to solve your problems, but all he's really doing is enriching further his rich buddies."

The discussion underscores the necessity for the Democratic Party to pivot away from entrenched cultural battles and instead focus on tangible economic issues that resonate more deeply with the electorate.

Tim Miller [31:42]:
"Trump got 74.2 million votes in 2020, 77.3 in 2024. So 3 million more. Second most of all time."

This statistic highlights the growing support for Trump, emphasizing the importance for Democrats to recalibrate their strategies to address the economic grievances that predominated voter concerns.

Late Regime Presidencies and Biden’s Place

Drawing on Ron Brownstein's analysis, the conversation touches on the concept of "late regime presidencies," where presidents elected at the tail end of a political cycle often struggle to maintain their legacy.

Ron Brownstein [34:37]:
"Biden bears a lot of similarity to this. Biden was elected after a string where Democrats had dominated, but Biden comes in and looks like he's put all the pieces back together."

Brownstein compares Biden’s presidency to historical presidencies like Jimmy Carter’s, suggesting that Biden faces significant challenges in maintaining the coalition that brought him to office.

Tim Miller [38:11]:
"Maybe the stupidest president in history will break the trend."

This remark underscores the unpredictability of presidential effectiveness, regardless of historical patterns.

Gavin Newsom and State Funding Politics

The episode briefly addresses the political tensions surrounding California Governor Gavin Newsom’s stance on withholding emergency funding.

Brian Tyler Cohen [41:16]:
"We never condition it. We never talked about putting the full fate in credit of the United States of America with the debt ceiling bill."

Ron Brownstein [42:08]:
"Treating blue America as an adversarial force is going to do more in the end to limit than expand his reach."

The discussion highlights the political maneuvering between federal and state governments, emphasizing the broader implications for governance and inter-state relations.

Ron Brownstein’s Book: A Year in LA (1974)

Wrapping up the episode, Brownstein shares insights from his book about Los Angeles in 1974, illustrating how the city has historically been a cultural and political bellwether.

Ron Brownstein [46:02]:
"I've always felt LA is kind of the capital of the future in American life... this is another example of that."

He reflects on how Los Angeles has been at the forefront of cultural shifts and is now grappling with the immediate impacts of climate change, reinforcing the city's role as a microcosm of broader national trends.

Conclusion

Tim Miller and Ron Brownstein conclude the episode by reiterating the critical lessons from the 2024 election and the ongoing challenges posed by climate change. They emphasize the need for the Democratic Party to recalibrate its strategies, focusing on economic issues while navigating the complex landscape of cultural politics.

Tim Miller [48:24]:
"Ron Brownstein, thank you for your wisdom and for all that. We'll put the links to your work in The Atlantic into the book in the show notes, and we'll be talking to you again soon."

Ron Brownstein [48:24]:
"Thanks for having me. I appreciate it."

The episode wraps up with light-hearted banter and a musical outro, leaving listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current political climate and the factors shaping future elections.

Notable Quotes

• Ron Brownstein [04:45]:
  "A considerable majority of the country was dissatisfied with the results they got from the Biden presidency... voters more or less treated him as one in that, through American history, when people are unhappy with the way things are going, they vote for the other party."

• Tim Miller [08:55]:
  "Let that make me want to hang up the podcast. Mike, to be honest, a quarter of..."

• Ron Brownstein [11:31]:
  "Non-college white women who supported legal abortion but were negative on the economy, they voted 2 to 1 for Trump."

• Ron Brownstein [25:46]:
  "Democrats have to avoid taking the bait on all of the cultural fights Trump provokes and really try to center their messaging over the next two years on the core argument that he promised to solve your problems, but all he's really doing is enriching further his rich buddies."

• Tim Miller [38:11]:
  "Maybe the stupidest president in history will break the trend."

Final Thoughts

This episode of The Bulwark Podcast provides a nuanced analysis of the 2024 election, blending data-driven insights with timely discussions on climate change and political strategy. Ron Brownstein's expertise offers listeners a deep understanding of the electoral shifts and the underlying societal currents shaping America's political landscape.

For more detailed analysis and to delve deeper into the topics discussed, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to The Bulwark Podcast and explore Ron Brownstein's articles in The Atlantic.