Tim Miller (2:20)

Destiny are all of our destiny settles on this Wisconsin Supreme Court race.

Sam Stein (2:25)

This race that Elon heard about maybe four weeks ago and decided, I'm going to put 20 million in there.

Tim Miller (2:31)

I think that there are a couple of things that are really important about the race that may be a little short of fate of Western civilization. But I think are Pretty important, number one is Elon Musk cannot just go by races. And I think that there are people, particularly on the left, particularly progressives. I had some folks who've come up to me that are very worried about just elections going forward. Elon monkeying with it, the Twitter, the bots, the amount of money that he has. If you can't buy a Wisconsin Supreme Court race, then it's going to be very much more challenging to buy bigger races. It's not like you can't buy any race, but I think that it is.

Sam Stein (3:11)

Yeah, let me stop you there, because I hear you, but what happens in a race where there isn't such donor enthusiasm on the Democratic side? Right. Like, the actual total amount of money was relatively matched in this race. But, you know, there's hundreds of races, hundreds in the cycle.

Tim Miller (3:32)

Sure. Could he steal a random marriage race somewhere? Sure. To me, I think that Elon. Elon is not magic. He does not have scary, magical powers. Like, he is not able to manipulate the vote, the machines. Here's what he is. He's just a man.

Sam Stein (3:48)

If anything, he's toxic.

Tim Miller (3:49)

That's what I was going to say. He backfired. I think Elon's money, I think probably which we'll get to next, is the nature of the backlash against Trump and the nature of how these special elections work and the nature of the coalitions. Susan Crawford was probably going to be the favorite no matter what. But. But I think Elon was a net negative on this. And even including the 20 million that he put in and the $2 million bribes that he gave to random twinks, college Republican twinks yesterday, I think even in spite of that, I think he was a net negative.

Sam Stein (4:18)

Oh, yeah. And I'm a little bit surprised that they had him show up, honestly, like, if I were the Republican Party in Wisconsin, I would have said, thank you, I'll take your check, but can you just maybe not come to the state? His numbers are terrible. And frankly, I think a lot of these races are way more referendums on him and Doge than they are on Trump. And so I feel pretty strongly that he was a net negative in a serious way tonight.

Tim Miller (4:50)

So I think that is important going to the midterms, because Elon is not going to disappear. It's not as if I was on with John Halloman earlier, and John said, I think rightly, I don't object to this observation, but he's saying that the. The Republicans in the House who are up in. In tough races, you know, and swing districts are Hoping that like a rebuke of Elon will get him to chill out and go away. That ain't happening.

Sam Stein (5:14)

Or maybe to get Trump to push him away.

Tim Miller (5:16)

Right.

Sam Stein (5:16)

Maybe Trump looks at. That's all Jonathan Martin was talking about. Yeah, I don't think this happens because, because of the money, honestly. But you know, that was the, that was the premise of the, of this Jonathan Martin story, which is like they want Trump to say, oh, this is not good. And you know, maybe that's like the nice from this race and that Trump is like, you know what, we got to kick Elon to the curb. I don't see it happening. But it doesn't mean that there aren't people who aren't hoping it happens.

Tim Miller (5:42)

Yeah, I agree with that. So Elon being toxic, I think is an important takeaway from the race. Another important takeaway as Elon mentioned his speech. So there's one thing he got right is I do think we'll see. Like Wisconsin has a really terrible gerrymander. Having a 4, 3 Democratic Supreme Court might make a difference in that. It might make a difference as far as the House of Representatives is concerned. I frankly don't think the House of Representatives will probably be that close in the next midterm. But that's meaningful in the micro.

Sam Stein (6:15)

But if it were, this would help, right?

Tim Miller (6:17)

Yeah, exactly. So I think that's meaningful in the micro. A turnout is pretty good. It was not quite as good, it doesn't seem yet. I mean, it's like we haven't obviously counted all the votes in Wisconsin yet, but it doesn't look like it's Proto Seiwitz kind of like which was the big post Roe Supreme Court race there, but like pretty good turnout from the Democrats there. And then we'll get to Florida. And so I think that is also encouraging. And I think those are all. And it happened in obviously a state that's gonna be very important in the future. And I think this also affirms something that we've been talking about a long time around here, which is like that these coalitions have totally flipped. And the old Obama era situation where Democrats did better in midterms and in special elections. Excuse me. Where Republicans did better in midterms and special elections and Democrats did better in general elections like that. It's totally flipped. And there's this hilarious kind of irony, kind of. It might not be funny for some people, but Wisconsin also passed a voter ID tonight. And I really don't think people have internalized. I think it's a very Small minority of people that internalize the fact. The voter id, whether or not you think it's a good policy, probably helps Democrats now. It used to help Republicans and I think it probably helps Democrats now.

Sam Stein (7:22)

It's much closer to a wash now. Yeah, I mean, I think Democrats are still wary of it because of the effect it might have on African American voters. But you are right in that the Democrat coalition is way more heavily tilted now than it was, I don't know, eight years ago on educated and engaged voters who are much more likely to have id. And that is, you know, that's what we're seeing throughout these special elections. And probably what we'll see in the midterms is that people who are engaged politically are going to vote Democratic and they're coming out. The only hope that Republicans have is that they can nationalize all this stuff and bring out these Trump voters. But that's really hard, like on special elections or random Supreme Court races as we've seen tonight.

Tim Miller (8:02)

All right, there's some specials in Florida that Republicans won, but there's some also, some. Maybe green shoots for democrats in Florida. One your favorite candidate, Gay Valemont, she lost by 15 to Jimmy Petronas. She ran against Matt Gaetz in that district and she lost that by 32. This is like the Florida pan handles. This is a redneck Riviera. Flora Bama.

Sam Stein (8:22)

Yeah. This is district Trump won by, I believe, 37 points. It's pretty red.

Tim Miller (8:28)

And you know somebody named Gay. If only she was named Gay. She was named Gay Hussein Voldemort, then we would really be in business.

Sam Stein (8:36)

She's pretty close to being named Gay Voldemort and she ran the Panhandle and she, she only lost by 15. Honestly, there should be some clause in the Florida constitution where if your name is Gay Voldemort and you come that close, you get to co serve. You can't run with that name.

Tim Miller (8:54)

We respect you, Gay. It's great. I'm happy for you.

Sam Stein (8:56)

I respect Gay. I respect the gays and I respect Gay, but it's just really hard. And I think you should get 15 points. 15 percentage points.

Tim Miller (9:05)

What's the long version of the female gay? Gay Lord. Is the male version Gayatris? I don't believe it's Gayatris.

Sam Stein (9:13)

No, I don't think so. What are we doing? It is a late night podcast. Gay. I apologize. I apologize. Gay. I don't mean to do that.

Tim Miller (9:19)

Escambia County, Pensacola, 22% more DEM. The surrounding ones. Also about that, this is why I.

Sam Stein (9:25)

Was tied into Gay Voldemort. No Democrat apparently has won a Scambia county for president since 1960. I learned that on Twitter tonight. But gay won it. Gay flipped it.

Tim Miller (9:36)

Gayleen, which makes sense for the plan. Handle that. It'd be Gayleen.

Sam Stein (9:41)

She lean's gay.

Tim Miller (9:42)

Yeah. Lesbian. Lesbian. Voldemort. Okay. Over in Florida, six. And a similar demographic over in Daytona Beach. Mike Waltz won that district by 33 in the election. 24. Randy Fine, who's a fucking piece of work, he's a Republican. He won by 14 over Josh Weil, who's a math teacher. So neither of those races end up being that close. 15 point loss for gay. 14 point loss for Josh Weil. But like, that does not bode well and explains why Elise Stefanik got pulled out.

Sam Stein (10:14)

There was some chatter last week that Randy Fine was in trouble, but the chatter was mostly generated from Republicans hoping to Two things. One, set expectations and to get as many national resources or attention on this race as possible. Because again, it goes back to can you nationalize the race? Can you get those Trump voters engaged? And, you know, I think they succeeded in that. But then you step back, you say, wait a second, that's like a 15 to 16 point swing. And I will note this is, I thought, you know, the data points are actually more interesting in the micro in that they were breaking that each county's in these district and the swing was universal. I mean, it was uniform. It wasn't like, oh, there was just larger turnout in the more educated counties and like, you know, less turnout. No, every single county was moving in the Democratic direction about the same percentage points. And to me, that I think is way more significant than anything else because it signifies that this is just an across the board frustration or, you know, anger towards Trump that we're seeing manifested that is why people like Elise Stefana cannot leave the House.

Tim Miller (11:22)

And I mean, in Wisconsin, obviously you have more of a, kind of a diverse demographic because you have like white working class areas, black areas and Milwaukee college towns than you do in kind of these red districts in Florida. And again, this stuff's still coming in right now, but as of now, it was like 23 of 25 districts. Crawford did better. Or counties, rather, Crawford did better than Kamala. So almost across the board. And then it was totally across the board in Florida. The thing that jumps out to me now, special elections because of these coalitions that we're talking about where the more complicated it is to vote and the harder it is to get people to turn out to vote. The better it's going to be for Democrats, at least in the short term. So I think specials are even a little bit better than midterms will be for them, just based on coalitions. Obviously, a bunch of stuff could happen between now and if we're in a recession, between next November. Obviously, there are other elements at play here. But I just look at this and it's like, okay, and if they're going to run 19 points better in these districts, that brings in a lot of red areas into play. And I do think that this is my number one message to Democrats Call me. Is I'm like, they should look at these R + 10, 12, 13, 14 districts and try to get some. I think that there could be some.

Sam Stein (12:36)

Surprise wins or at least make Elon spend a few.

Tim Miller (12:39)

Elon spend money, get people running.

Sam Stein (12:42)

Civilization is dependent on all these things. Things.

Tim Miller (12:44)

This is why we did the run for something episode. It is less dire in these areas than I think the conventional wisdom is. I think Democrats have some huge structural problems, particularly in the Senate and these red states. But in local elections, up through congressional elections, I don't know. Right?

Sam Stein (13:01)

I mean, the Senate's like a totally different conversation. Here's what I think about this. One is that I know that the run for Something people have seen historic engagement, so I think people are jazzed. Two is there's been this sort of talk, and I know Lauren Egan is going to address this in her newsletter that comes out Wednesday night, about how, well the Democratic brand is so damaged and people hate Democrats and, like, how the party is going to, you know, never resuscitate itself. But that data point is bunk. Like, I just think people need to get over that data point. Like, we were there with Republicans a while ago. These things are cyclical. And also people. This is really just a referendum on Trump and Elon.

Tim Miller (13:38)

And then three, is that thermostatic polarization?

Sam Stein (13:40)

Sam, you know, yes, that's a more technical way to talk about it. And three is that, like, you do need to challenge every race. And the reason you do is because even if you don't win them all, you have to sort of create a bench for future races. And I'm. I'm. I'm reminded of how in 2009 and 2010, you were there. I mean, like, Obama had 60 Senate seats. Like, here, the House majority was massive. All the state houses were Democratic. That felt like. And then he just lost it all.

Tim Miller (14:11)

I was working in Iowa then, so I was thinking of, like, Dave Loebsack. It's like this random super left professor at Iowa ends up beating Leach, who'd been there forever, who'd been a Republican, who had been there forever. So you win surprising places like that race didn't even have any ads in it. And this guy wins.

Sam Stein (14:28)

No. Yeah. And they'll be shocked at the races that they actually win. And you just run for it and you hope for the best. And sometimes you catch landing a bottle.

Tim Miller (14:37)

Yeah. One last thing that's. I've been meaning to mention this because it's relevant as a local perspective for Louisiana. People wouldn't have noticed this civilization did not rest on these four amendments that we voted on here in Louisiana last week in the special election. But the Republican governor, Jeff Landry, was pushing these kind of changes to the Constitution. They're on taxation and legal issues and they're kind of arcane, except for the tax element. The rest of them were pretty arcane. But there was a big push from Democrats and activist groups here in Louisiana that was just like, vote no on them all, y'all. And there's like a little ad campaign around it. Just vote no. No to Jeff Landry. No to what he wants. F him. Basically. It was the campaign. Like there wasn't even a ton of education on like what the actual ballots were. It was just like, say no to this. Resist it. And they got slaughtered, like his ballot initiatives got slaughtered here, which I kind of. In Louisiana.

Sam Stein (15:27)

Well, it's a catchy phrase.

Tim Miller (15:28)

It is a catchy phrase.

Sam Stein (15:29)

No to them.

Tim Miller (15:29)

All y'all. All y'all. Yes. Anyway, I think that there are obviously positive signs there, even here in deep red America.

Sam Stein (15:38)

Imagine what this podcast would have been like if Crawford lost.

Tim Miller (15:42)

Well, it would have been kind of like the podcast is every other day. So it's not that hard to imagine.

Sam Stein (15:50)

It would have been Tuesday.

Tim Miller (15:52)

It would have been that hard to imagine. It's a fair point though, to, you know, you shouldn't over interpret. But I just like, at this point, there's so many trends to this direction that it's like, okay, I agree with that.

Sam Stein (16:02)

I agree that everyone's like, don't read into special elections. But no, I'm going to read into it.

Tim Miller (16:06)

Yeah, we're going to read into it. All right. What else are we going to fucking do? We're talking about Cory Booker.

Sam Stein (16:11)

Let's talk about Cory.

Tim Miller (16:12)

Cory Booker. Boy, he hit the record for filibuster. Record long filibuster. I didn't think he could do it. Just kind of bladder wise, like when, like Corey didn't.

Sam Stein (16:22)

What's the longest you've gone without peeing?

Tim Miller (16:25)

Well, you know, I've got that dog inside of me, Sam, so probably. Probably a while.

Sam Stein (16:30)

I don't even know what that means.

Tim Miller (16:34)

Probably a while. I just. That's why I kind of feel like I'm a little made of sterner stuff than Corey. I was wrong. Corey surprised me. What was the final number you got? 25 plus 25 hours plus record filibuster. I have some thoughts on it, but let's play a couple clips. Let's first, let's play him talking about kind of the moral moment.

Cory Booker (16:53)

This is an American moral moment. This is the question of where do we stand for health? Where do we stand for Social Security? Where do we stand for VA benefits? Where do we stand for our American neighbor? When the call and commandment of every faith in our land is to love your neighbor, what is the quality of our love? America, now is the time to get angry. But let that anger fuel you. Now is your time to get scared for what's happening to your neighbors and let that fear bring about your courage. Now is your time to stare at despair and say, you will not have the last word because I'm going to stand up and at least I can give one person hope in this country. Can I give one person hope in this country? And so what do I want from my fellow Americans? Do better than me. Do better than we in this body.

Tim Miller (17:43)

That's a low bar.

Cory Booker (17:44)

We are flawed and failed people. I see people showing up at our town halls yelling at us, Democrat and Republican.

Sam Stein (17:52)

Do more.

Cory Booker (17:53)

How are you letting this happen? Well, I hate to tell you, we're doing all that I can think of. This is why I'm standing here, to try to give voice to those people. But what is more needed for now is less people sitting on the sidelines.

Tim Miller (18:04)

I think that was in like, hour 22 or 23. You can come hear his voice going. His mouth's a little dry. And so just like being able to summon that kind of spirit at that hour is pretty impressive. And, you know, I think there's like, a tendency to want to go into. From us in pundit world, like, go into figure skating, judging on this. And for me, it's just like, man, he's trying to get people going. Will it work? I don't know. Like, will it land with people? Will it land with just one person? I don't know. But I think that it is like at least being responsive to this thing that we've been talking about a lot, which is like, there is a demand out there for people to say, fuck this. Like, come on. Like, we can do that. We can fight this. Like, it is not. Don't despair. And he was at least being, at minimum, and maybe more than this, he was being responsive to that demand.

Sam Stein (18:56)

Well, look, I think, and I'm going to try to articulate this in a way that makes sense, clearly, voters want Democrats, Democratic voters want Democrat lawmakers to do more. I will say also that it's clear to me that there's not really much more that Democratic lawmakers can technically do that would stop what Trump and Musk are doing. Right. In order for them to make that point to voters, that really the power to resist and oppose Musk and Trump rests in collective action and public action. Something like this had to happen. Cory Booker or someone had to make a personal sacrifice, a historic personal sacrifice in this case, to say, look, I get it, I'm doing this. It's not going to do anything. Like, it's not going to stop a piece of legislation.

Tim Miller (19:47)

It's not going to cause Republic stalled a day. One less day.

Sam Stein (19:51)

One less day. Yes. And maybe, and look, maybe, you know, the next step, Chris Murphy should get up and take the baton and do one more day, right. Like, you can make the case, but it's not going to ultimately lead to, you know, something not passing that could have passed otherwise. Maybe, maybe Republican lawmakers moved by it, but that's about it. But he, in order for him to make the case to people that, look, you are where the power of resistance lies, he had to make a sacrifice along these lines. And I watched not all of it. I watched a, you know, a decent amount of it. And I thought he succeeded in that. And I thought the last hour especially was a really remarkable, considering how exhausted he must have, really remarkable weaving of history of the civil rights movement and, and all that and his own life experiences into the current political moment that we are in. And I have people who, I've, you know, sources now who've federal workers who have been in contact with me for weeks, you know, total despair among these people, especially today. And we can, we'll get into it. I know, because there's so many cuts today. You know, they lost their jobs today in their livelihoods, and they were just like, I'm sobbing watching this. Like, he's channeling everything I feel right now watching this. And that's all you really can ask for, right? Like in politics is doing that is channeling people's emotions and, and directing it into something constructive. And good. And I think he accomplished that.

Tim Miller (21:18)

I agree with that. And you're making a good point about like, who is the target here, audience for this? In a lot of ways, really, it is people that are anti Trump. Right? I mean, they're Democratic partisans or maybe not, but they're anti Trump and anti what Musk is doing. And they are looking for somebody to be a leader, to channel their energy, to demonstrate sacrifice, to encourage them to get off. Like all the things that you said, like. Right. And I think a lot of times when people get into the analysis of this sort of stuff, it's like, well, this went over the swing voter and Waukesha. And it's like, no, it's not going to win over the fucking swing. Obviously not. But like, that isn't the only objective. Like, that is one objective of politics. It's one thing people need to do. But there are other elements of this. You know, there's the legislating element, there's the leadership element, there's the motivation element. And so I agree with you. I think he was successful in that regard. I want to play one other clip that just kind of gets into the core of what the substantive policy critique was he was offering.

Cory Booker (22:17)

I asked you, are you better off than you were 72 days ago economically? I asked that question. Ask it to your friends. Are they better off economically? Well, I don't see how they could be. Because prices are up, stock market's down, the risk of recession is climbing, consumer confidence is in the gutter, 401k plans are getting losing value. Are you better off than you were 72 days ago under this president's leadership, on the verge of his so called liberation day, that's going to drive prices up even more.

Tim Miller (22:51)

Again, this is another example of something we've been talking about. It's tough. The strategists are all like, pivot to kitchen table issues. And it's like hard, right? Because how do you get attention for that? Well, this is a way to get attention for it. And I do think while I've been banging for more emotional reaction from the Democrats on some of this, on the democracy stuff and the deportations and all that, this is a way to get into the economic issue. And I think in a way that is pretty compelling, that speaks to the political opportunity for Democrats, which is, what are people getting out of this? I think that is a better framing than being like, our egg prices are up or, you know, trying to troll around that. It's like, no, it's like, have you gotten anything out of this.

Sam Stein (23:35)

You also don't want to hook it to one thing, but, yeah, I think that's right. Like, what have you gotten out of this? And in fact, what have you lost out of this? Right there was that, and then there was this. The last anecdote he told. Again, I thought the close was really remarkable, but the last anecdote he told, which was his personal story as weave through what's happening to NIH and science. He's talking about Alzheimer's research, and he's like, what is more unobjectionable than funding Alzheimer's research? Like, we all know it's a scourge. We all have loved ones or relatives or friends who've been affected by this horrible, horrible disease. We have a role, we have a bipartisan role to. To solve this stuff. And yet here we are, cutting this research, our progress on this stuff, and why, for what?

Tim Miller (24:23)

We can say that again.

Sam Stein (24:24)

Well, that was not, in the negative sense, the pejorative way. Way, way, way to go, you. Anyways, what was I saying? So, yeah, and then. And then he talks about being with his father, who was suffering from Parkinson's or something. I don't. I want to be. I'm sorry if I'm being inaccurate here, and having to walk him to a bathroom so that he could urinate and having to help him take down his pants and all that stuff. And it was just like, oh, my God. You know, you talked about kitchen table issues and that it's not what we can conventionally call kitchen tables because it's not about, you know, the price of groceries and stuff, but goddamn, you talk about that stuff at the kitchen table. Right? Like, everyone talks about at the kitchen table. And look, you. You might be right about the intended audience, but there was another intended audience, I do believe, and that was the Republican senators who were in the chamber or who were maybe just watching, who have worked on this stuff with him in the past and who might say, you know what? Like, what are we doing? What. Just say your question. What are we doing here? Like, come on.

Tim Miller (25:30)

Maybe that was the intended audience, but I think they should. He should focus on a ghetto audience. Okay, like, let's just, Let's.

Sam Stein (25:37)

I think you.

Tim Miller (25:37)

Look, we're getting a little high on our own supply here. The Republicans. The scales have fallen from Ron Johnson's eyes tonight. Sam.

Sam Stein (25:45)

I would. I would say maybe not Ron John, but maybe Lisa Murkowski, maybe Mitch McConnell, maybe. Maybe Valdemor was watching. We don't know.

Tim Miller (25:55)

I've got one other Just we have to do this because it's a political podcast. He's thinking about running for president.

Sam Stein (26:02)

Yeah, of course.

Tim Miller (26:02)

I'm just sitting there. I'm just leaving that there.

Sam Stein (26:04)

Aren't they all? That's the real thing, basically a prerequisite for something.

Tim Miller (26:07)

Yeah, but they're all thinking about it. This is a real thing. And I don't know. I'm open to everybody. Everybody get out there. You're yawning. Got a lot of time left. We got a lot of time left. All right, pull it together. Pull it together. The people don't pay $0 for this podcast to have a yawning guest.

Sam Stein (26:26)

Did I just lose this shit?

Tim Miller (26:28)

All right, so Corey's gonna run for president. It was pretty good. More is more. More is more. I've got one other. Atta boy to a Democrat that I want to close with. So this is a very unusual podcast today. But first we gotta do a little serious stuff. As you mentioned earlier, a total bloodbath today at hhs. Our new colleague, Jonathan Cohn, who's awesome and everybody should sign up@thebullork.com for his newsletter if they haven't yet, has a new one out tonight. RFK Jr. Guts. America's Health bureaucracy. It's been a little hard for me to follow this because a lot happened. And I guess also before you tell us what we know, we've had amazing feedback from our listeners and viewers and readers who are in the government or friends who are. We have a tip line. Theborg.com tips folks have been sending it in. It's totally anonymous, so if you or a friend were hit by these cuts, please tell us your story. But anyway, what have we learned so far?

Sam Stein (27:22)

Just quickly on the tip line, I cannot stress enough. We've gotten some great stories out of these tips. Like it's. This is not just sort of like, oh, we want to engage. You guys are giving us great stuff. We genuinely appreciate it and it's contributed to a lot of these stories. So, yeah, today was a big. Probably about as devastating a day for our healthcare bureaucracies as anyone can remember in recent history. For sure, it had been previewed last Thursday. They were going to cut roughly 10,000 positions from HHS, that's Department of Health and Human Services, that oversees the fda, the nih, the cdc, other agencies. And today was the day. And I had scores of people coming, showing up at work, getting an email saying, we're sorry, you're being put on administrative leave and you no longer have access to the building. And that's that. And it was really sort of indiscriminate in a way. I mean, well, I guess not indiscriminate, but it was just a lot of people had trouble figuring out, like, what the actual upshot was. It wasn't just administrative leaders, like that was clearly part of it, but there were top, top scientific officials who were just like. Oh, like for instance, the acting director of the National Human Genome Research Institute. He. We got an email from a tipster. Thanks again. Unexpectedly placed Administratively, he had 20 year career as a researcher and a leader at the nih. He was just gone and cone tracks, a lot of this other stuff. I mean, it's like liheap, Head Start, Food inspectors, you know, they were all.

Tim Miller (28:52)

Just cut and cms, Centers for Medicare, Medicaid Services.

Sam Stein (28:56)

Yeah. And it's hard to put your head around just like how big an impact this actually will have. But he did quote Wendy Armstrong Marie, this director of infectious disease at the University of Colorado, your old neck of the woods. We've had a lot of devastating days, but this is really unfathomable. Armstrong said, it's astounding. It will affect patients with all kinds of different kinds of infections and Americans will suffer and people will die. And that's a horrible thing to see coming. It's bad. And I will just add that, you know, part of the subtext of here, maybe it's not even the subtext is that RFK is just like trying to reinvent basically how we do health in this country. And he's installed people who have deep skepticism of the health bureaucracies and they have a lot of political support. I will say that I had a lot of people in my feed being like, thank God, go for it. Cut more. But I think it's objectively, you can say it's a head in the sand approach to how we do this stuff. Jonathan interviewed Kevin Griffiths, who is an old spokesperson for the cdc. He was actually there for part of the time that RFK had been installed at hhs. And he told Jonathan that rfk, as long as he was there, never attended a briefing on measles, even though there's a measles outbreak that has been happening that, you know, subject matter experts at the CDC had briefed RFK one time by the time he left, but it wasn't on measles. Aven fu. Same thing. And we're just in a place where the heads of these agencies have distrust in science and don't seem particularly concerned all that much about the real problems that they are facing in the current moment.

Tim Miller (30:37)

Yeah, I'll get to the political element of this in a second. But the real substantive health effect, particularly on the research side to me is the thing that I just keep coming back to and I hear and there are a lot of terrible stories. But as we get these stories on the tip line and I'm reading them, the ones that jump out to me are always like, like we're in the middle of a 20 year study on this, on whatever it is, you know, diabetes or specific type of cancer or whatever. And that is stuff that is not easily remediated by like some rich guy, you know, coming in and doing it, or the private sector obviously coming in and doing it. Right. Like that's not like some of this other stuff which is maybe patchable, you know, it's like this is, we're effed, you know, and like maybe Europe starts to do more. But like all of that takes a lot of time and there's real suffering.

Sam Stein (31:29)

Oh no, no. Yeah, no, no, you're absolutely right. I mean, look, NH budget's what, $30 billion? We're not going to get rid of all of it. But let's say we do cut 5, 7 billion. There's not some dude waiting around being like, you know what? I want to fund that random study on, you know, some, you know, chromosomal issue or some that just doesn't happen.

Tim Miller (31:48)

Particularly rare diseases or things. Like we don't, you know.

Sam Stein (31:51)

Yeah. And, and people are like, well, can't the private sector step in? And the answer is no. I mean, and in theory they could, but their motivation is profit. They're not going to fund long shot.

Tim Miller (32:01)

What if it's a thing that only 12 people get a year? You know what I mean? There are all these rare types.

Sam Stein (32:05)

Even if it works out for them, they're not in the business of funding long shot, go to the moon type initiatives. They want to fund something that can get them profit in 5, 10, 20 year horizons. And so then the real only funding mechanisms are foreign countries. And honestly to God the people I talked to, the only foreign country who's got the money to come in and get this done is China.

Tim Miller (32:27)

China.

Sam Stein (32:28)

And across the board, every single, I mean it's on trade, it's on science, it's on, you know, foreign aid. Every single vacuum that we're creating that Trump's creating, China will fill. And it is the theme of the first two and a half months so far.

Tim Miller (32:46)

Well, CNN has a story about how China's launched some large Scale military drills from multiple directions around Taiwan this evening. So, you know, great. So in addition to that, handing over a lot every. All of the soft power, maybe the hard power might be coming for us as well. Do you see any direct political thing? I mean, the cdc, not to just be ranked politics here, but like cdc, like there is a lot of these jobs are in Georgia. There's been a big Senate race there. I don't. I mean, you know, we hear from people. There are places in a lot of places in the country. Virginia governor's race. I don't know.

Sam Stein (33:14)

I mean, yes and no. Yeah. The CDC cuts will, Will impact Georgia and that. And Ossoff was talking about that, for instance. And then, you know, the research stuff that Booker mentioned, I mean, I. That does have resonance with some folks. Bill Cassidy and, and who facilitated a lot of this. Thank you, Bill. And Bernie Sanders, who helmed the, the committee that oversees the stuff, have asked RFK to come and explain what the hell's going on. But, like, do you really expect Bill Cassidy to be like, you know what? I. I got this one wrong. And no, it. This shit's like the, the whatever cliche. You want to have the horses out of the barn on this stuff. And I don't know how much this is a political issue per se. Like, I think when you do start capping grants to state universities for biomedical research, that becomes a jobs issue in your. In local states. And Katie Bird obviously had that happen. She objected, so we'll see. But I think it's one of those things that, like, maybe a little bit too esoteric for people to vote on, though.

Tim Miller (34:16)

Maybe. And I guess maybe there's a macroeconomic thing. We're going to get deeper on economic stuff on tomorrow on Thursday's pod, because it will be on the heels of Liberation Day. I want to talk about Liberation Day, but I do think that just this combination of this kind of quasi government austerity, it's kind of like haphazard austerity policies of the government with the tariffs. It does contribute broadly to the economy. So anyway, Liberation Day dude's going forward with it.

Sam Stein (34:46)

Exciting.

Tim Miller (34:47)

We've had a running kind of debate between me and you. You know, you thought it was all smoke and mirrors.

Sam Stein (34:53)

How long do you think these are going to last?

Tim Miller (34:55)

What are you taking? I think. I think he's bought in, man. Like this. These guys. These guys and I. Well, it's hard to pull back from the rationale they have. They think that this is central to their vision for the golden age of America. And I don't know, man, your former coming to Politico reporting that a lot of people around the President, Vice President don't really get it or understand, but like they want to go big. And so, you know, I don't know. I think they're going big. What do you think you're going big or are they faking it tomorrow?

Sam Stein (35:27)

I know they'll go big tomorrow and then in the next week we'll have.

Tim Miller (35:32)

It is funny. They're doing it. They moved it so that the announcement is a 4 o'clock because they don't. They don't want. What they didn't want was the image of like Trump talking and then the ticker going down, down, down. You know, they don't want that meme.

Sam Stein (35:44)

So this is not their first rodeo. No, my prediction is they'll put them in place and then sometime next week we'll have some sor carve outs that have been negotiated strategically by Donald Trump. And then we'll be like, oh, yeah, you really scored a victory, Mr. President. And that's that.

Tim Miller (36:02)

You already seen a little bit of this. Some pre negotiations BB was out tonight.

Sam Stein (36:06)

What did Bibi say?

Tim Miller (36:07)

He said today we canceled all of the customs duties levied on products from the US Israel's largest trading partner. So it's kind of like a. No, don't reciprocal me, Donald. I assume we'll get a couple of those others from his other friends, like the autocrats throughout the world. I mean, we'll see Erdogan or whoever.

Sam Stein (36:23)

Yeah. What were the guys guy in El Salvador.

Tim Miller (36:25)

Yeah, Bukele. Well, I mean his economy is based on bitcoin, so I don't. Do we do they tear up bitcoin and prisoners with bitcoin. So anyway, we'll see more of that. The funniest preamble to this for me is have you seen the. There's already some knives out for Howard Lutnick.

Sam Stein (36:43)

Yeah, I saw that. That was great. Like, if this fails, it's on Howard. Oh yeah.

Tim Miller (36:48)

Because like, yeah, it's the commerce Secretary.

Sam Stein (36:51)

It's a comms problem. It's like this is. If it fails, it's Trump.

Tim Miller (36:54)

It is funny though, because he is like this little Chihuahua of a man and like you can kind of see him as like to me, I imagine him, like I mentioned him and Trump. Everything is high school, really. I imagine him and Trump back at boarding school. Trump was whatever, the baseball player and Lutnick was like the mill house who kept running around trying to please him. Like Donald. Yeah. Donald. Whatever you want, Donald. And there is like a little bit of that energy from him and I could see how that, that maybe grates on the colleagues. I don't think, I don't think Lutnick was the master manipulator behind the Liberation Day.

Sam Stein (37:27)

I gotta be honest. Ludnik cracks me up, honestly, because he's out there and he's like, he's convinced himself that the best thing that he can possibly do is just be like the most ubiquitous salesperson possible. But he keeps saying things that are like really bad, such as, oh, I don't know if anyone should squeal if they lose their Social Security for a week. Like, come on, dude. So, you know, the fact that he, he's done all this stuff and is, you know, out there all the time for Trump and then still is going to have to fall in the ax when this stuff hits the fan. I think it's poetic in a way.

Tim Miller (38:04)

Yeah, that'll be six round. I think we should have a little gamble between Waltz and him. They seem like the most likely first people to be fired via bleat. And I guess I'll take Waltz. I think Waltz kind of lasts less long than Lutnick for me, but I don't know, it's a tough call.

Sam Stein (38:19)

And Waltz, there's still, there's like a drip, drip here. But the tariffs can, I mean, terrorists, they go south.

Tim Miller (38:25)

When they go south.

Sam Stein (38:27)

When they go south, it's gonna get bad. And then like, you know, I like Scott Besant. I think he's my dark horse for potential. See ya.

Tim Miller (38:37)

Yeah, we can't have, you know, let's see, you gotta make the gay the fall man. Not gay Voldemort.

Sam Stein (38:43)

Not gay.

Tim Miller (38:44)

Gay Bessant. If people are as obsessed as I am with. While the stock market continues to go down, worst quarter since 2022 and worst months since 2022. Newsmax's stock skyrocketed. Me and JBL did a whole 20 minute breakdown on this on YouTube. People should just go check this out.

Sam Stein (39:04)

What was your conclusion?

Tim Miller (39:05)

A conclusion is basically there are a couple of options. One is that there is. That there is a troll. There's like a meme. It's a Wall street bets type situation. And there is like a meme stock troll thing. It's being driven up by people on various, whatever, discords and people in crypto worlds.

Sam Stein (39:25)

But why would they do that?

Tim Miller (39:26)

Because it's funny. Here's the problem, here's the why they would do that. This is the whole of that theory. Is that unlike some of those other stocks, meme stocks. Chris Ruddy, who's the owner of Newsmax, owns 80% of the stock. So all they're doing is making him rich. So that's the whole net theory, which takes me to, you know, corruption. Like, either there's some kind of backroom deal. I mean, Ruddy is a Mar. A Lago member, is in there with Trump a lot. And there's a lot of similarities to the coin. Maybe there's some other rich people, some foreigners that are pumping it like it's just a rug pull.

Sam Stein (39:59)

But usually, like, you have some sort of, like, you know, like, big show around it, and you try to get a lot of interest in it, but they really didn't do that.

Tim Miller (40:09)

I know, but that leads to the theory that there's some whales out there that are driving it up. And then it's like there was a bet that retail would get behind it because people would be like, oh, this is a hot bet right now to bet on MAGA media. But it's crazy. It's a declining industry. It's cable news. It's in a declining industry.

Sam Stein (40:27)

Declining industry. And every macro trend suggests that MAGA media is struggling right now.

Tim Miller (40:31)

Yeah. And they're worth more than 50% more than news Corp. Right now in total market value. Anyway, go watch the whole video. The thing is, it's fucking insane, though. It's an insane story. And they'll probably be a Michael Lew this book about it at some point.

Sam Stein (40:45)

I bought some at the ipo, by the way.

Tim Miller (40:46)

Did you? How much are you up? You know what? Can I tell you something? I'll have one more admission on this. During COVID I started messing around with meme stocks and all that during COVID you know, to kind of fit in with the bros. And I did this. I made a bet. Some of my colleagues will kill me if they know which company it is, so I won't say. I made a very small bet on a conservative media company, like, went after Trump dump one the last time, because I was like, for the same reason, like, oh, I guess they'll do well. And it tanked. I don't know. I lost like 400 bucks on it or something, you know, so it wasn't. Wasn't a successful bet for me. So the theory of the case was right. I was just early, as is always the case on. On my failed investment opportunities. No Annapurna funds over here. Two more things. I know, I know you're not exactly the Cory Booker of this podcast. You're not wanting to do a full 24 hours.

Sam Stein (41:36)

I can go.

Tim Miller (41:37)

Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, lost an internal battle with Anna Paulina Luna. It's kind of like kind of new hotness in the House, I think, has taken away from the Lauren Boebert mtg. She's kind of the rising. She's the rising star.

Sam Stein (41:55)

Female star.

Tim Miller (41:56)

Yeah. Female star. The short of this, the details are kind of a little less interesting, but the short of this is that she wanted proxy voting for new mothers.

Sam Stein (42:03)

Yeah.

Tim Miller (42:03)

And Johnson and then said basically no. So they had the rule on, you know, the rules that govern the House going for a vote today. And Aluna convinced seven other Republicans, I guess, in the Democrats.

Sam Stein (42:15)

Nine.

Tim Miller (42:15)

Yeah, yeah, Nine others. Eight others. Okay. To go along with this and to vote it. Vote the rule down. And so. And then Mike Johnson just was like, okay, fine, and took his ball and went home. And they're like, the house is now closed for the week. And it's like, these are. I wanted to bring this up a. Because it's kind of funny that Mike Johnson got. Got owned by Anna Paulina Luna. But it's also just like, I think it bears mentioning. I just haven't focused on this enough on the pod. The House has done nothing. Oh, like, we're on April 1st, and they've, like, literally done nothing. I mean, they continued the last year's budget.

Sam Stein (42:49)

They got the government funding bill. Yeah, that was it. I think the details on this actually are not unimportant. I kept asking Joe Perdicon, like, why the. Do they care about proxy voting for new mothers? Like, in what world is this a hill that they need to die on? Like, what does Mike Johnson actually care about? He's like, oh, this is. You know, they think it's unconstitutional. I was like, Mike Johnson proxy voted. Like, what do we also, like, unconstitutional? Look around. Like, we're like, deporting people who are innocent to El Salvador and not giving due process rights. Like, this is like the constitutional line that Mike Johnson's gonna freak about. And it just didn't. I just couldn't wrap my head why this was such a big deal. And I still don't really get it.

Tim Miller (43:32)

So then why did they just shut down the House for the week then? I don't like it.

Sam Stein (43:36)

Well, then he was like, well, because we have to now consider this discharge petition, and it's going to, you know, take up all the business, and we can't really consider any other thing else. And it's like, dude, it's just Take the. L just do the proxy voting. It's unfathomable to me.

Tim Miller (43:51)

The point for me is, like, they have one job, kind of, which is to pass a reconciliation bill.

Sam Stein (43:58)

Right.

Tim Miller (43:58)

Like, to pass. To extend Trump's tax cuts and to codify whatever cuts from Doge they want and to, like, do all. Like, they're gonna do all that in one bill. And to me, it feels like they've done nothing. Like, they've made nothing. Little progress. Yeah. They control all of Washington.

Sam Stein (44:14)

They've handed everything over to Trump.

Tim Miller (44:16)

So this also goes to the Constitution thing. It's like your constitutional line is proxy voting, but meanwhile, it's like you've completely ceded all the power of the legislative branch to executive. You're like, you can just king Trump and do whatever he wants. Pretty much like, the whole thing is bizarre.

Sam Stein (44:32)

It's stupid clowns.

Tim Miller (44:34)

Okay, want to do a shout out to me for Representative Glenn Ivey? No, Maryland. Oh, not to you. No. I do is praise you, Sam. I just praise you, Glenn. Ivy went on Fox on his douchebag Will Kane's TV show, and he was talking about the story with Kilmar Abrego Garcia that I've been obsessing over. For starters, good on him for going on to Fox. I've heard some pretty dispiriting things, actually, since I've began my rants over the past two days or three days about why Joe Rogan is out there more on this than Democrats. And I thought that it was like, I was just assuming it was just caution. And I was like, well, if I. Maybe if people such as me and Chris Hayes and favs and others who have been out there and you who've been doing this, like, maybe they'll light a fire under people's ass and be like, oh, we can do this. And to me, it actually seems more like they're being actively discouraged from speaking out, is my understanding. So that's pretty dispiriting. But not Glen Ivey. Glen Ivey was on Fox, and I just want to play a little bit of him with Will King.

Glenn Ivey (45:45)

I prosecuted the crimes of illegal immigrants for eight years. I locked up more people in my day than you ever did. So don't lecture about not being dispassionate about today.

Tim Miller (45:55)

You write the laws to do something wrong. No, no, no, no.

Glenn Ivey (45:57)

I've done it. You haven't.

Tim Miller (45:59)

Back up today, Congressman. You write the laws. Congressman. Today, you don't prosecute the laws.

Cory Booker (46:06)

You write the laws.

Glenn Ivey (46:07)

In fact, I did a. I did a joint prosecution with Rod Rosenstein of Ms. 13 when he was the US Attorney and I was the state's attorney. I've done this before. You have not. Don't sit there and lecture me about being passionate about people who break the law. I think I've done it.

Tim Miller (46:22)

You have. Congressman A plus, Glen Ivey.

Sam Stein (46:26)

What was the distinction Will Kane's trying to draw there? You write the laws.

Tim Miller (46:30)

I think Will Cain is trying to say, you don't get any credit, sir. You don't get any credit for.

Sam Stein (46:35)

You were severed between prosecutor and law.

Tim Miller (46:38)

Yeah. Your past life prosecuting these criminals. You don't get any credit for that. If you're not out there right now as a congressman and supporting what these deportations Trump is doing, I guess. But he goes on there. It's a longer clip, but he goes on there and they, there's like a boring section of the clip. But again, it's, there's some legal ease elements to this where, where Ivy is out there. And he's basically saying, look, this is not how this works. Like, like this person was, you know, under, you know, whatever temporary do not deport order. And like, you know, he has his wife and kid are citizens. Like, if you wanted to have a deportation, there's a process to doing this is that you go to a judge and they're 30 days. Like, you know, And Will Kane's like, no, this is. No, we need new. We need real tough guys who are just going to randomly deport people based on whims and sadism and I don't know. Is he convincing anybody on Fox? I don't know, but I think it's better, it's much better for people on Fox to hear to a, hear the counterargument. Because again, if Joe Rogan can be compelled, maybe some Fox viewers can so to hear the argument and baby, to demonstrate that, like, oh, you know, the Democrats aren't all just the worst clips that you play on the Five. You know, like, there are Democrats that like, actually made their career prosecuting gang members and can speak about that. And, you know, I think that that is a valuable use of time. So. Good on you, Glenn Ivey. You got anything else on that?

Sam Stein (47:59)

Absolutely. And I just like, yes, I've been on this. I've been beating this drum for a while now. But, like, you gotta go on these places, like, what is the alternative? They're just gonna paint you as a caricature and like, you know, every clip is gonna be, you know, you transpose with like, you know, the border being overrun or Whatever. And secondly, and we've talked a bit about this, but, you know, it may not be a winning issue for Democrats, but it sure as hell is not going to be a winning issue if you don't push the issue. You can't assume that, like, it's just going to turn or that it's just going to go away. And this was the Kamala Harris fallacy, too. It's like, well, we don't want to talk about immigration because it's not friendly turf. Well, it may be 80, 20 Trump issue, but it's much better if it were a 60, 40 Trump issue. You got to do these things and so lean into it, right? And I think I, I actually will. I'll shut up after this. But I do think maybe I'm crazy that we're kind of hitting a tipping point here. I mean, Rogan, the National Review people, you know, some conservative immigration activists who are all like, you know what? This, we probably do need due process. What's going on? Those are cultural markers. And I think we actually would see more if Democrats went on these platforms and said, you know What? I've prosecuted Ms. 13 members. I know the dangers of gangs, but we can't fuck this up and ruin it all by deporting innocent people. It's a pretty easy argument in my book.

Tim Miller (49:23)

Same. Here's what I'm asking on this. The thing that they're worried about, which I get because we're seeing this from DHS right now, is putting out the fact that this, that was part of a human trafficking ring. I've said this about every person I've brought up. I don't know. I don't know. Because they didn't get due process. So I don't know. Maybe the makeup artist was like smuggling in fentanyl in their little Mac powder cases. I don't fucking know. I don't think so. It doesn't seem like it to me. But we could find out. I think that there is a good reason for Democrats who are politicians, who have a different role than me as a fucking blabber, to maybe not lean all the way in on a specific case because you don't want to be the guy that's like, oh, turns out you were defending a human trafficker. We can fill that void. The commentariat and the advocacy groups and outside groups, and you can speak to the broad element of people are not for disappearing people off the street without a due process. That is what Rogan said. That is what the polls actually say. And I think that Folks can go out and do that. And so good on Glen Ivey for doing it.

Sam Stein (50:27)

I agree. Is it that hard to say? I don't necessarily support this person. I just want to make sure we're deporting the right people.

Tim Miller (50:33)

Yeah. And that we're not wrongly sending people to a fucking concentration camp in El Salvador. All right. I told you one last thing. But we have a bonus piece of audio. I want to leave people on a happy note. I want to leave people on a happy note. How often have I left people on a happy note? Katie? If I left people on a happy note one time since November. I can't recall. Maybe I have. Sometimes I have.

Sam Stein (50:53)

I'm sure you have.

Tim Miller (50:54)

Have I?

Sam Stein (50:55)

Probably some.

Tim Miller (50:56)

Maybe a shot in Freud. I've let people certainly. On a. Laughter. A note of laughter. But pure joy. I don't think so.

Sam Stein (51:04)

Do you still have that in your life?

Tim Miller (51:06)

I do. I'm a father. My child doesn't have lice or ticks. So, you know, I get to give her a good night hug tonight. I've got pure joy. I'm going to go to Coachella in a couple weeks. That'll give me joy. I've got joy in my life. You know who else has joy in her life? Susan Crawford. Let's listen to her.

Sam Stein (51:23)

But I've got to tell you, as a little girl growing up in Chippewa Falls, I never could have imagined that I'd be taking on the richest man in the world for justice in Wisconsin. And we won.

Tim Miller (51:56)

And there it is. She beat Elon. That's good.

Sam Stein (51:59)

She affected Western civilization itself.

Tim Miller (52:02)

Western civilization is saved thanks to Susan Crawford. Good haircut, too. Everything. The whole thing. It's a good vibe. It's a whole good pass. There's so many Wisconsin haircuts in this video. You people. You got to check it out on YouTube. The audio listeners. These are happy cheese heads. Sam Stein. Thanks for staying up late with me, brother.

Sam Stein (52:22)

Thank you for having me. What a pleasure. What a pleasure.

Tim Miller (52:24)

What a pleasure. Everybody else, happy Liberation Day. We'll be back here tomorrow for another edition of the Bulwark Podcast. We'll see you all then. Peace.

Unknown Speaker (52:34)

We're a winner. And never let anybody say well, you can't make it Cause a feeble mind is in your way no more tears do we cry and we have finally dried our eyes and we're moving on up Moving on up Lord have mercy we're moving on up Moving on up we're living proof in our alert that we're two from the good Black king and we're a winner and everybody knows it too we just keep on, on pushing like your leaders tell you to at last that blessed day has come And I don't care where you come from we're moving on up, moving on up Lord have mercy we're moving on up, moving on up hey hey. We're moving on, moving on up Lord have mercy we're moving on, moving on I don't mind living here to show the world we have no fear Cause we're a winner and everybody knows it too we just keep on pushing like your leaders tell you to and that blessing day has come And I don't care where you come from we just gonna move on up, moving on up Just keep on pushing everybody. Hey.

Tim Miller (54:31)

The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.