The Bulwark Podcast: S2 Ep1015 Summary Episode Title: Bill Kristol: The High Cost of Stupidity
Release Date: April 7, 2025
Hosts/Guests: Tim Miller and Bill Kristol

Introduction and Economic Turmoil

The episode opens with host Tim Miller highlighting significant turmoil within the Trump administration, the struggling markets, and escalating global tensions. Miller notes that the S&P 500 has experienced its worst three-day performance since 1987, attributing much of the market's instability to President Trump's relentless tariff policies.

Notable Quote:
Tim Miller (00:07):
"It's a bloodbath in particular in the S and P which is now at its worst three day performance since 1987 as Trump refuses to back off his moronic tariff regiment."

The Impact of Trump's Tariffs

Bill Kristol delves into the detrimental effects of Trump's tariff policies, emphasizing their ill-conceived nature and poor execution. Kristol criticizes the administration for implementing tariffs without proper economic justification, leading to significant market and economic repercussions.

Notable Quotes:
Bill Kristol (02:01):
"These tariffs are so particularly stupid. They seem to be premised, Voiga might have explained this better. And the idea that our bilateral trade balance with every country should be zero, should be even."

Tim Miller (05:24):
"That's comparative advantage. And everyone has their specialized natural resources."

Market Reaction and Critique from Economists

Kristol discusses the severe market reactions not only due to the economic damage caused by the tariffs but also because of the perceived recklessness of Trump's team. He points out that the market is factoring in the administration's incompetence, which has been a consistent underestimation by economists.

Notable Quote:
Bill Kristol (05:24):
"It is partly that the actual tariffs are going to damage the actual economy, prices, imports and so forth, but it's also the incredible stupidity and recklessness and willfulness that Trump and his team have shown the market is pricing that in now."

Media and Public Figures' Responses

The podcast touches on various public figures, including Elon Musk and Dave Chappelle, who have voiced concerns about the administration's policies. Musk's subtweets against Trump and Chappelle's comedic rebuttals serve as examples of influential voices opposing the administration's actions.

Notable Quotes:
Dave Chappelle (11:59 - 12:55):
"iPhones can be $9,000. Leave that job in China where it belongs."
"Fuck is he thinking?"
"I want to wear Nikes. I don't want to make them [shits]."

Tim Miller (09:35):
"Howard Lutnick, he was not knocking it out of the park over the Weekend as well. I want to play a clip for you of possibly one of the worst talking points I've ever heard on a Sunday show."

Internal Tensions within the Trump Administration

Bill Kristol highlights growing dissent within the administration and among Republican lawmakers. With key figures like Kevin Hassett shifting their stance on tariffs, there is an emerging rift that threatens to undermine Trump's policies from within.

Notable Quote:
Bill Kristol (07:20):
"The Republicans on the Hill have been pretty bad too. I'm certainly within the administration, there's been just contempt."

Human Rights Abuses and Immigration Policy

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the administration's harsh immigration policies, including the forced deportation of individuals to El Salvador and the treatment of immigrants. Kristol and Miller express deep concern over the lack of due process and the inhumane conditions being inflicted upon immigrants.

Notable Quotes:
Bill Kristol (35:48):
"It's fundamentally changed now."
Tim Miller (29:15):
"They've kidnapped these people and sent them to a torture dungeon. They also show a lot of video from this prison. It's just horrifying."

Potential Political Responses and Party Strategy

Kristol and Miller explore possible strategies for Democrats and moderate Republicans to counteract the administration's policies. They suggest leveraging the economic fallout and public dissent to push for legislative actions that could curb Trump's power, although they acknowledge the significant challenges involved.

Notable Quotes:
Bill Kristol (16:39):
"Democrats need to hammer home... if there were Democrats out there that were saying, yeah, if they want to stop these tariffs, I would work with Don Bacon on finding a compromise solution."

Tim Miller (21:04):
"Maybe there is something there, you know, but again, like this stuff gets very complicated, right?"

Election Integrity and Judicial Manipulation

The conversation shifts to the Republican efforts to manipulate election outcomes, particularly focusing on the North Carolina State Supreme Court race. Kristol warns of a troubling trend where Republicans use judicial processes to undermine election integrity, setting a dangerous precedent for future elections.

Notable Quotes:
Bill Kristol (45:53):
"This is an April and they're going after particular ballots that they think would be more Democratic. But I think it is a harbinger of what will happen in states where Republicans have control of the state legislature."

Tim Miller (44:19):
"Can imagine the expat vote would be more sympathetic to the Democrats. Even conservative lawyers."

Human Rights Abuses and Immigration Policy (Continued)

Further discussion centers on the ongoing human rights abuses, including the extradition of immigrants to El Salvador without due process. Miller gives a detailed account of the unjust treatment and lack of accountability within the administration, highlighting the broader implications for civil liberties and America's international standing.

Notable Quotes:
Tim Miller (32:49):
"They've kidnapped these people and sent them to a torture dungeon. They also show a lot of video from this prison. It's just horrifying."

Bill Kristol (33:40):
"They have jurisdiction over the president of El Salvador."

Potential Political Responses and Party Strategy (Continued)

Kristol emphasizes the importance of proactive strategies from Democrats and moderate Republicans to mitigate the damage caused by Trump's policies. He calls for a united front to challenge reckless administration actions, suggesting that even a small number of Republicans could play a pivotal role in reversing harmful measures.

Notable Quotes:
Bill Kristol (22:08):
"There's a decent chance that we're in the middle of something that people haven't really wrapped their heads around yet."

Humorous Interlude and Coping Mechanisms

In an attempt to lighten the mood, Tim Miller shares a comedic clip featuring Dave Chappelle, providing a brief respite from the heavy topics discussed. This segment underscores the importance of humor as a coping mechanism amid political and economic chaos.

Notable Quotes:
Dave Chappelle (11:59 - 12:56):
"Fuck is he thinking?"
"I want to wear Nikes. I don't want to make them shits."

Conclusion and Future Outlook

As the podcast wraps up, Kristol and Miller reflect on the profound changes in America's political and economic landscape under Trump's leadership. They express pessimism about reversing the current trajectory but remain hopeful that strategic political actions could mitigate some of the damage. The episode concludes on a somber note, acknowledging the deep uncertainties facing the nation.

Notable Quotes:
Bill Kristol (51:55):
"The combination of all that... the odds are unfortunately decent that this is a real end of an 80-year period."

Tim Miller (53:26):
"Yeah, well that's where I'm at too... it's like the constitution we gave the Germans."

Final Remarks

The episode underscores the high stakes of Trump's administration policies, highlighting both internal dysfunction and external backlash. Bill Kristol provides a critical analysis of the economic and human costs of current strategies, while Tim Miller emphasizes the urgent need for political unity and action to address the multifaceted crises facing the United States.

Notable Closing Quote:
Tim Miller (55:27):
"Thanks to Bill, Kristol, everybody else, we're back here tomorrow for another edition of the Bulwark Podcast. We'll see you all then. Peace."

Additional Resources:

• Bulwark+ Membership: Access an ad-free version of the podcast.
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This summary captures the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing an overview for those who have not listened to the entire podcast.