The Bulwark Podcast – S2 Ep1019: David Frum – "It's Too Late to Stop the Pain"

Release Date: April 11, 2025

Hosts: JVL (Guest Host)

Guest: David Frum, Staff Writer at The Atlantic and Host of The David Frum Show

1. Introduction and Supreme Court Ruling

Timestamp: [00:38]

The episode opens with JVL welcoming David Frum, praising him as the podcast’s best guest. The conversation quickly delves into a recent landmark Supreme Court decision concerning Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland father of a special needs child who was wrongfully deported to a Salvadoran mega-prison.

JVL:
"Last night we got a Supreme Court ruling unanimously on Kilmar Abrego Garcia... The court ruled that the administration must facilitate his return, but it did not order it. And it also indicated that courts may not have the power to do so because of, quote, deference owed to the executive branch in the conduct of foreign affairs. David, this reads to me like a less good decision than some people seem to hope because it presumes a world of regular order. Tell me, what are your thoughts on this?"

2. Analysis of the Supreme Court Decision

Timestamp: [02:04]

David Frum critiques the Supreme Court's unanimous decision, suggesting that Chief Justice John Roberts prioritized a swift, unanimous verdict over a more substantial, nuanced ruling. He emphasizes the limitations this decision places on the judiciary's ability to challenge executive actions in foreign affairs.

David Frum:
"I think oftentimes in these decisions... Roberts thought it was more important to have a 9 to 0 outcome than to have a really robust decision... they’ve also given the Trump administration a pathway to return someone who was wrongly held."

3. Trump's Potential Response and Economic Strategy

Timestamp: [03:12] – [08:05]

The discussion shifts to President Trump's possible reactions to the ruling, including defiance or attempts to comply despite potential obstacles. Frum predicts that Trump might use this situation to blame Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, amidst an economic downturn exacerbated by Trump's trade policies.

JVL:
"Do you think that Trump wants to comply with this? Because it seems to me that it's pretty easy for him to not comply if he doesn't want to."

David Frum:
"I think Trump is saving that for the 2026 elections... He needs the drama. And firing Powell will take a little bit of time. So that gives Fox and Friends and his allies in online media something to talk about instead of the gathering recession."

4. Impact of Tariffs on Supply Chains

Timestamp: [09:50] – [15:44]

Frum elaborates on the detrimental effects of Trump's tariffs on global supply chains, using the example of tiny screws in iPhones to illustrate the complexity and inefficiency introduced by protectionist policies. He underscores how tariffs disrupt economic efficiency and the interconnectedness of global manufacturing.

JVL:
"What people... say we need to bring back the manufacturer of iPhones because we can't have the Chinese drilling these tiny screws into iPhones."

David Frum:
"The way you make a tiny screw is... it turns out it's a highly skilled, and it takes a long time to learn how to be a skilled operator in the tiny screw industry."

5. Republican Party’s Stance on Trade Post-Trump

Timestamp: [17:13] – [20:48]

The conversation explores whether the Republican Party will revert to free trade after Trump's influence wanes. Frum argues that while protectionism was heavily tied to Trumpism, historical precedents like Gerald Ford's shift from isolationism to global cooperation suggest a potential Republican pivot back to free trade.

JVL:
"Does the Republican Party go back to free trade after Trump is gone?"

David Frum:
"If we end the trade war... we can get commerce moving again. But what you can't undo is the fact that you've done this."

6. Smuggling and Border Control Issues

Timestamp: [25:06] – [29:37]

Frum discusses the potential rise in smuggling due to stringent tariffs and the challenges of enforcing new trade barriers. He paints a bleak picture of increased illicit trade and the limitations of law enforcement in curbing widespread non-compliance.

JVL:
"These tariffs are real. A lot of merchandise is going to fall off the back of trucks, isn't it?"

David Frum:
"...once you start saying, okay, tube socks are going to cost three times in the United States... you become very rapidly a low trust society."

7. David Frum’s New Show and Vision

Timestamp: [30:09] – [39:08]

Frum introduces his new podcast, "The David Frum Show," outlining its focus on medical progress, free markets, economic dynamism, and global cooperation. He emphasizes a departure from daily headlines to more in-depth, thoughtful discussions on a variety of topics.

David Frum:
"I'm going to try to stay away more from Daily Headlines... We're talking about medical progress... we're going to talk about the workings of a free economy."

8. Canada-US Relations and Political Shifts

Timestamp: [30:09] – [35:50]

Frum shares personal insights into the strained Canada-US relations under Trump's administration, highlighting historical anti-American sentiments in Canada and the challenges of maintaining cooperative ties amid protectionist and nationalist policies.

JVL:
"You, you did a piece over at the Atlantic about the tiny little screws...”

David Frum:
"I campaigned ardently for the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement... Canada and the United States have entered into ever closer cooperation..."

9. European Defense and Nuclear Deterrence

Timestamp: [39:40] – [45:39]

The dialogue transitions to Europe's defense stance post-NATO dissolution, discussing the necessity for European nations to establish independent nuclear deterrents and military capabilities. Frum critiques the current trajectory of European defense policies and their implications for global security.

JVL:
"The EU needs a separate nuclear umbrella from the American nuclear umbrella..."

David Frum:
"The first thing it needs is a European National Security Council with weighted voting... Poland and Germany becoming nuclear powers."

10. Concluding Thoughts and Call to Action

Timestamp: [46:32] – [49:54]

In the final segment, Frum reflects on the broader implications of Trump's policies on American democracy and global stability. He calls for a recommitment to free trade, global cooperation, and the rule of law to avert further economic and political crises.

JVL:
"Aren't those rational calculations by other countries? ... a large enough percentage of them want something like this that the Pax Americana all that stuff is no longer supportable."

David Frum:
"We are going to learn some things the hard way... Maybe God sent Trump... we're going to learn why protectionism is bad, why isolation is bad..."

Notable Quotes

• David Frum [02:04]:
  "It's pretty obvious he got the headline bring this guy home. He's not in Siberia, he's not in China."

• David Frum [08:05]:
  "Trump has crashed the car. He has an economic strategy that was unbelievably stupid done for, and it's visibly failing."

• David Frum [14:14]:
  "Supply chains are also a realization of beautiful idea of people cooperating across vast distances without ever knowing each other."

• David Frum [35:50]:
  "The Conservative message during this campaign has mostly been, let's talk about something else than the topic everybody is talking about."

• David Frum [46:32]:
  "If you can't share my vision of global cooperation just on your own thinking about it yourself, you will learn the hard way what happens when you do it the other way."

Conclusion

In this episode, David Frum provides a comprehensive analysis of the current political and economic landscape shaped by Trump's administration. He critiques the Supreme Court's handling of deportation cases, warns against the fraught relationship between tariffs and global supply chains, and underscores the necessity of international cooperation for maintaining global stability. Frum also introduces his vision for his new podcast, emphasizing the importance of free markets, medical progress, and global cooperation. The discussion concludes with a somber reflection on America's future, urging a recommitment to foundational democratic and economic principles to navigate the impending challenges.

Produced by: Katie Cooper
Audio Engineering and Editing: Jason Brown