Summary of The Bulwark Podcast - S2 Ep1030: Bill Kristol: Creepy and Wrong

In Episode 1030 of The Bulwark Podcast, released on April 28, 2025, host Tim Miller engages in a comprehensive discussion with Bill Kristol, Editor at Large of The Bulwark, covering a range of pressing political and economic topics. The conversation delves into international elections, domestic political sentiment, economic challenges, immigration policies, the interplay between the Trump administration and the judiciary, and the influence of tech elites in shaping political landscapes. Below is a detailed summary of the episode, segmented into key discussion areas, each underscored by notable quotes and timestamps for reference.

1. Canadian Election Polls and International Implications

The episode opens with a discussion about the ongoing Canadian elections, where voters are deciding between interim Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. Tim Miller notes the fluctuating dynamics, highlighting that initial predictions favored Poilievre until a trade war influenced voter sentiment.

Notable Quote:

Bill Kristol [03:07]: "There's something kind of wonderful about Trump electing a Liberal up north in Canada, having picked this pointless fight with them and with Trudeau in particular."

Kristol speculates that Trump's antagonistic stance may inadvertently benefit Canadian Liberals by destabilizing Conservative prospects. He emphasizes the volatility of political forecasts, stating:

"Politics is a motion picture, if you want to think of it this way, not a snapshot."

2. Trump's Approval Ratings and Congressional Behavior

Shifting focus to the United States, Miller presents recent polls indicating President Trump's declining job approval ratings, citing figures such as CNN's 41% approval and The New York Times Siena poll showing 42% approval versus 54% disapproval.

Notable Quote:

Bill Kristol [06:35]: "Public sentiment is maybe even more powerful than it once was."

Kristol agrees that while polls are not definitive predictors, they reflect public sentiment that can influence congressional actions and the behavior of key stakeholders like business leaders and university presidents. He warns against relying solely on polls but acknowledges their significance in shaping democratic processes.

3. Economic Policies: Tariffs and Market Realities

The conversation progresses to economic issues, particularly Trump's tariff policies and their repercussions on supply chains and consumer prices. Miller references a Seattle Times story about empty ports and escalating prices, linking these to tariff-induced uncertainties.

Notable Quote:

Bill Kristol [10:08]: "Reality blurs over into perception, obviously. So on immigration, I mean, the kind of incredible Overreach of his immigration policies is a reality that people are seeing and don't like."

Kristol underscores the tangible impacts of economic policies, noting that both inflation and potential recession are significant realities affecting public perception and overall economic health.

4. Immigration Policies and Human Rights Concerns

A critical segment addresses the Trump administration's aggressive immigration enforcement, highlighting cases where US citizen children were deported to Honduras. Miller expresses frustration over the inhumane treatment and lack of due process in these deportations.

Notable Quote:

Bill Kristol [16:45]: "It's not just a matter of optics, but it is also not what people want their government to be doing unless they need to do it because they're seizing some dangerous criminal or something."

Kristol criticizes the administration's methods, emphasizing the need for respectful and lawful treatment of individuals, especially minors and those with familial ties to the United States.

5. Trump Administration vs. the Judiciary

The discussion delves into the contentious relationship between the Trump administration and the judiciary, particularly focusing on legal battles surrounding immigration policies and other executive actions.

Notable Quote:

Bill Kristol [22:04]: "He thinks that the court shouldn't be involved. They just think they should have the Right. To run the entire immigration policy, enforce the Alien Enemies act without anyone having any other say and without any due process."

Kristol highlights Ryan Goodman's analysis, noting that the administration's disregard for judicial oversight is likely to erode trust in the legal system and predispose courts to be more skeptical of government actions in the future.

6. Influence of Tech Elites and Political Hubris

Miller brings attention to an Atlantic article discussing private chats among tech magnates and Trump officials, suggesting that these interactions played a pivotal role in Trump's rise and the subsequent policy directions.

Notable Quote:

Bill Kristol [34:49]: "They really just couldn't resist or didn't want to resist, pushing the envelope and showing real disdain for the courts."

Kristol critiques the hubris displayed by both Trump and the tech elites, arguing that their overconfidence in manipulating economic policies without regard for market realities ultimately backfired, leading to economic instability and disenchantment among various voter segments.

7. Democratic Strategies for Senate Elections

A significant portion of the episode is devoted to analyzing Democratic strategies for upcoming Senate races. Miller references Matt Iglesias' article, which underscores the challenges Democrats face in swing states and the necessity for strategic candidate recruitment and voter engagement.

Notable Quote:

Bill Kristol [40:33]: "They do need to have some actual goals beyond, you know, putting up a half dozen guys or whatever. And there's really not that much organization of or planning for getting into other seats."

Kristol advocates for a dual approach: lowering Trump's approval ratings and recruiting strong, locally resonant candidates. He emphasizes that driving down Trump's numbers is crucial for Democratic success in off-year elections, mirroring strategies from past electoral successes.

8. Closing Remarks and Final Thoughts

In the concluding segments, Miller and Kristol recap their discussions, touching upon the importance of actionable strategies over passive resistance. They reiterate the need for Democrats to focus on concrete goals and effective campaigning to counterbalance Trump's political influence.

Notable Quote:

Tim Miller [45:04]: "But also biography matters. I mean, RAHM recruited in 06, but also in 2018. No one recruited anyone in 2018."

Kristol concurs, highlighting that candidate biographies and personal narratives play a pivotal role in swaying voter preferences, especially in closely contested regions.

The episode wraps up with a brief, inspirational exchange, encouraging listeners to stay engaged and proactive in the political process.

Overall Insights and Conclusions:

The Bulwark Podcast Episode 1030 offers a nuanced exploration of the intersecting dynamics of international elections, domestic political sentiment, economic policies, and immigration enforcement under the Trump administration. Bill Kristol articulates concerns over policy overreach, economic mismanagement, and the erosion of judicial integrity, while advocating for strategic Democratic responses to upcoming electoral challenges. The conversation underscores the complexity of modern political landscapes, the tangible impacts of policy decisions on everyday lives, and the imperative for informed and proactive political engagement.

Key Takeaways:

• Public Sentiment Matters: While not absolute predictors, approval ratings reflect broader public sentiment that can influence legislative and executive actions.

• Economic Policies Have Real-World Impacts: Tariffs and trade wars disrupt supply chains, inflate consumer prices, and can lead to economic instability.

• Immigration Enforcement Requires Due Process: Aggressive deportation policies, especially involving minors, undermine human rights and erode trust in government institutions.

• Judiciary Relationships are Crucial: Respectful and lawful interactions between the executive branch and the judiciary are essential for maintaining legal integrity and public trust.

• Tech Elites' Influence is Double-Edged: While leveraging tech connections can aid political campaigns, overconfidence and hubris can result in counterproductive policies.

• Strategic Democratic Planning is Essential: Lowering opposition approval ratings and recruiting strong candidates tailored to local electorates are vital for electoral success.

Listeners are encouraged to stay informed and actively participate in the political process, recognizing the multifaceted challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.