The Bulwark Podcast: Episode S2 Ep1039 Summary

Release Date: May 12, 2025

In this episode of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller engages in an in-depth conversation with Bill Kristol, Editor-at-Large at The Bulwark. The discussion navigates through a spectrum of pressing political issues, offering insightful analysis and critical perspectives on the current administration's policies and actions. Below is a comprehensive summary of the key topics covered:

1. US-China Trade Negotiations and Tariffs

Overview: The conversation kicks off with an examination of recent developments in US-China trade relations. Following negotiations in Switzerland, the United States has reduced tariffs on Chinese imports from 60% to 30%, while China reciprocated by lowering its tariffs from 40% to 10%.

Key Points:

• Economic Impact: While the reduction in tariffs provides a marginal boost to both the US and global economies, Kristol emphasizes that the changes are relatively minor compared to what might have been achieved under alternative policies.

  "It's marginally good for the world economy and for our economy, so that's good. It's still marginally bad compared to where we might have been if we just continued Biden's policies at this point..." (05:33)

• Presidential Authority: The administration's unilateral approach to adjusting tariffs without Congressional approval raises concerns about the erosion of established trade protocols.

  "He decides he's had some meeting in Geneva and suddenly tariffs are down to this for 90 days... if it became a permanent thing, someone might say, hey, don't we have like Congress that ratifies these things?" (05:33)

• Market Reactions: The markets responded positively to the tariff reductions, reflecting investor optimism about reduced trade tensions.

  "The markets, though, are happy this morning. They soared." (04:27)

2. Qatar's Gift of a Boeing 747 and Corruption Concerns

Overview: A significant portion of the discussion centers on the controversial acquisition of a luxury Boeing 747 from Qatar, intended to serve as the new Air Force One until the end of President Trump's term.

Key Points:

• Nature of the Gift: Kristol criticizes the impropriety of accepting such a lavish gift from a foreign government, especially one with ties to Hamas.

  "The new Air Force One is going to come from Qatar. A palace in the sky... the funders of the group that the administration is targeting is now also the funders of the new presidential airplane." (13:53)

• Legal and Ethical Implications: The deal potentially violates the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, which prohibits federal officials from receiving gifts from foreign entities without Congressional consent.

  "It's going to go to the presidential library, not to him afterwards. So it is a gift to him... but then it's obviously illegal. It's an emolument unless Congress approves it." (15:23)

• Geopolitical Concerns: Kristol highlights the irony of accepting a gift from Qatar, a nation that has historically supported Hamas and maintains a complex relationship with Iran.

  "They've sent over 1.8 billion to Hamas over the past decades... It's intriguing that the funders of the group that the administration is targeting is now also the funders of the new presidential airplane." (16:00)

3. Release of American Hostage

Overview: Despite the overshadowing issues, a positive development is the announcement by Hamas regarding the release of Eden Alexander, the last American hostage held for over 550 days.

Key Points:

• Hostage Release: Kristol expresses genuine relief and happiness for the hostage's release, acknowledging the positive outcome amidst the administration's controversial actions.

  "One good news in this situation is... Hamas said Sunday they're going to release the last living American hostage, Eden Alexander... Genuinely happy though for Eden Alexander and his family." (25:05)

4. Trump's Executive Order on Prescription Drug Prices

Overview: The episode delves into President Trump's executive order aimed at reducing prescription drug prices in the United States through ambitious and arguably unfeasible measures.

Key Points:

• Policy Details: Trump proposes reducing drug prices by 30-80% and adopting a "most favored nations" policy, aligning US prices with the lowest globally.

  "Prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices will be reduced almost immediately by 30 to 80%. They will rise throughout the world in order to equalize... bringing fairness to America." (26:00)

• Critique and Feasibility: Kristol criticizes the executive order as unrealistic and compares it unfavorably to previous approaches, such as the Biden administration's Medicare negotiations.

  "As you say, it was a law... But Trump is now just inventing that. He's going to personally put caps... It's all bullshit. It's a reality show." (29:50)

• Impact on Reconciliation Bill: The executive order is seen as a tactic to garner support for the larger reconciliation bill, which includes significant tax cuts and potential Medicaid reductions.

  "The reconciliation bill is like... this is what we're trying to push up the hill." (31:47)

5. Congressional Reconciliation Bill and Tax Cuts

Overview: Kristol and Miller explore the intricacies of the proposed reconciliation bill, which aims to extend tax cuts while potentially introducing cuts to Medicaid.

Key Points:

• Economic Implications: The bill is projected to add $4-5 trillion to the deficit, necessitating significant Medicaid cuts to balance the budget.

  "...extending the tax cuts is going to add 4 or 5 trillion. And so, you know, they'll have to... create fake math to even make that defensible." (40:04)

• Political Challenges: The bill faces hurdles due to internal disagreements within the Republican Party and concerns from moderates in blue states about the impact on deductions like the SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction.

  "Holly in the New York Times... 32 Republicans on a letter about how, you know, this bill can't add anything to the deficit now." (31:47)

• Potential Outcomes: The uncertainty surrounding the bill's passage underscores the administration's reliance on high-risk legislative maneuvers to achieve policy goals.

  "Putting all the chips on the table. And if it falls apart in Congress, that would be a very dramatic moment." (43:28)

6. Suspension of Habeas Corpus and Immigration Detentions

Overview: A contentious topic is the suggestion by Stephen Miller, a key advisor to President Trump, to suspend habeas corpus amid ongoing immigration enforcement actions.

Key Points:

• Legal Concerns: Kristol vehemently opposes the suspension of habeas corpus, citing its essential role in safeguarding civil liberties.

  "Suspend habeas corpus. That is the key. Arguably... one of the two or three single most important guarantors of civil liberty." (45:14)

• Immigration Enforcement: The podcast highlights alarming instances of ICE detaining non-violent individuals, including young immigrants who pose no threat to public safety.

  "They're not going after violent criminals... they're literally people working in restaurants... for what?" (50:26)

• Political Inaction: The lack of decisive response from Republican senators and members of the House exacerbates concerns about unchecked executive power and human rights violations.

  "They think business leaders know something about their businesses and the economy. If they hear nothing from senators and members of the House... they think, I guess maybe it's okay." (35:53)

7. Russian Propaganda Targeting International Leaders

Overview: The episode briefly touches upon Russian propaganda campaigns, particularly targeting international figures such as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Key Points:

• Disinformation Tactics: Kristol mocks the spread of unfounded allegations, such as claims of international leaders engaging in drug use, highlighting the absurdity and malicious intent behind such propaganda.

  "It's hard to understand. It's like... a big fat bag of cocaine... a dirty napkin, which is what it obviously was for anybody with eyes." (53:20)

• Impact on Public Perception: The dissemination of such misinformation aims to undermine trust in global leadership and sow discord among allied nations.

Conclusion

In this episode, Tim Miller and Bill Kristol provide a critical lens on the Trump administration's policies and actions, emphasizing concerns about corruption, erosion of democratic norms, and the potential long-term implications for both domestic and foreign policy. The discussion underscores the need for accountability and adherence to constitutional principles to preserve the integrity of American governance.

Notable Quotes:

• "It's marginally good for the world economy and for our economy, so that's good." – Bill Kristol (05:33)

• "We're just having the whole US economy and global economy chugging along at the whim of this guy and his kooky advisors." – Bill Kristol (05:42)

• "It's our plane, not his." – Bill Kristol (15:23)

• "It's a reality show." – Bill Kristol (29:50)

• "Suspend habeas corpus. That is the key." – Bill Kristol (45:14)

Note: Timestamps correspond to the transcript provided for precise reference.