The Bulwark Podcast

Episode: Sam Stein and Francis Fukuyama: A Coming Deportation Blitz?
Date: October 28, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guests: Sam Stein (Managing Editor, The Bulwark), Francis Fukuyama (Stanford, Author, “Liberalism and its Discontents”)

Episode Overview

In this double-header episode, Tim Miller delves into two major topics with his guests. The first half, featuring Sam Stein, focuses on alarming recent developments in U.S. immigration enforcement and inside Democratic political strategy. The episode’s second half transitions into a big-picture conversation with Francis Fukuyama on the global populist wave, the role of the internet in politics, the decline of liberalism, and generational cycles of political struggle. Both segments provide sharp, candid, and often darkly humorous analysis of the precarious state of American and global democracy.

Segment 1: Immigration Policy Under Trump & Democratic Party Strategy

with Sam Stein (00:54–35:09)

Immigration Enforcement Escalation: “A Coming Deportation Blitz?”

• Crisis in ICE Leadership:

  • Fox News reports a major shakeup in ICE: up to 12 field office chiefs replaced to ramp up deportations.
  • Core Trump-aligned figures—Corey Lewandowski, Kristi Noem, and Border Patrol Commander Greg Bevino—are pushing for maximum aggression, in contrast to Tom Homan, who (incredibly) is the voice of moderation.
  • Cities affected include L.A., Phoenix, Philly, Denver, El Paso, San Diego, Seattle, Portland, and New Orleans.

• Notable Quotes:

  • "How does it make you feel that Tom Homan is the moderating force inside this administration right now?" – Tim Miller (03:14)
  • Sam Stein recounts the emotional impact of viral deportation videos:
    • "It's like this incredibly tragic scene. You're like, why? What is the point?" (04:20)

• Analysis:

  • Tim and Sam discuss factional battles between ICE and Border Patrol, noting increased uniformity in aggressive tactics about to be deployed nationwide.
  • Stein points out that public anxiety about these activities is bipartisan—even Trump-fatigued voters cite the cruelty of immigration practices as a major problem.
    • "I think people are generally discomforted by all the imagery, all those videos. They don't like it." – Sam Stein (09:07)

• Takeaway:

  • Both hosts see the new ICE policy as a deliberate escalation, with “the worst” enforcement tactics in Chicago soon to be replicated across the country.

Venezuela, Regime Change Politics, and “Kill the Drug Dealers”

• Emergence of a War Footing:

  • Tim raises the specter of U.S. intervention in Venezuela, noting Trump’s “we should have taken the oil” rhetoric and the overt language of regime change.
  • Sam distinguishes between factional interests (Marco Rubio vs. Rick Grenell), and notes that the “fentanyl from Venezuela” justification is a likely pretext.

• Notable Quotes:

  • "All signs to me seem like they're pointing to war in Venezuela, regime change war, and stealing the oil." – Tim Miller (10:55)
  • "One thing that he has been consistent about for a long time is he wants to kill the drug dealers." – Tim Miller (12:13)

• Insight:

  • Both see the Venezuela issue as blending personal Trump obsessions (“kill the drug dealers”) with broader ideological projects pushed by his advisers.

Cognitive Testing Riffs—Biden, Trump, and Political Gimmicks

• A comedic detour about cognitive tests, with hosts joking about demands for public demonstrations and LSAT challenges (13:23–13:46).

Democratic Strategy: The "Deciding to Win" Memo

• Memo Key Points:

  • A new memo urges Democrats to rebalance their message toward economic issues and away from progressive “identity” language.
  • Tim highlights a shift in vocabulary: upward trends in terms like “justice, equity, climate,” while “jobs, economy, middle class, work, crime” decline.

• Notable Quotes:

  • "That's bad... regardless of where you are ideologically... it seems bad that they're talking more about justice and equity and climate than middle class and work and crime." – Tim Miller (16:46)
  • Sam Stein: "It's the perception of the party that has changed in a very bad direction if you want to win elections. And frankly, the perception of voters is really what matters." (17:09)

• Debate over “Moderation”:

  • Memo authors suggest true moderation means taking heterodox positions, not just sounding temperate or establishment.
  • Sam is skeptical:
    • "What good does it do to take heterodox positions if you can't break through and convince the public that you are a heterodox?" (20:49)
  • Tim's advice: Dems should pick at least one MAGA-friendly stance and talk about it loudly to demonstrate authenticity (22:03).

The Karine Jean-Pierre Book Tour and Biden Comms Meltdown

• Topics:

  • KJP’s ineffective defense of the administration amid Biden’s communications failures.
  • Sam and Tim lament lack of accountability and note the price paid for reduced media exposure and micromanagement.

• Notable Moments/Quotes:

  • "The reason they couldn't survive the Biden debate performance was because they had failed at communicating and presenting him prior to the debate. Had this really been a one-off, we would have known it." – Sam Stein (28:13)
  • Miller: "People were afraid to criticize the administration and afraid to criticize her for various reasons. And I just think this should be a big lesson..." (28:45)
  • Sam: "I just think the age where you can micromanage and protect a politician and just skirt the public are so clearly in the past." (29:17)

Trump Loses UFC Fighter Bryce Mitchell: Outrage, Antichrist Theories, and MAGA Psychopath Pie

• Summary:

  • Brief, viral video clip of UFC’s Bryce Mitchell denouncing Trump (citing Epstein files, foreign aid, and bizarrely, Biblical prophecy invoking the Antichrist) (30:00–31:12).
  • The team notes Mitchell’s antisemitic, pro-Hitler rants as context:
    • Tim: "He has suggested that Hitler had some points...greedy Jews...gaying out the kids." (32:02)
  • Tim proposes that Trump once “got all the psychopaths,” and the goal is to spread that demographic out again.

• Notable Humor:

  • Running gag about using Bryce’s clip to reach your MAGA uncle:
    • "Maybe just shoot him over with Bryce and be like, hey, I got—might be possible that you've been fooled and Trump is the Antichrist." – Tim Miller (34:23)

Segment 2: Francis Fukuyama on Populism, Liberalism, and the Internet

with Francis Fukuyama (36:40–83:54)

The Real Cause of Populism: Fukuyama’s Diagnosis

• Nine Theories of Populism’s Rise:

  • Fukuyama lists commonly cited explanations (from economic inequality and racism to social media and “human nature”) (38:40).

• His Conclusion:

  • While all play a role, Fukuyama argues that the internet and social media’s distorting impact is the primary driver in the current era.
  • "There were worse economic times than this last decade...There were times where racism was more acute...and the only thing that is unique about the last decade is the phones." – Tim Miller (44:12, summarizing Fukuyama)

• Key Arguments:

  • Economic and status anxiety explanations don’t account for sudden shifts in voting among minorities or the global nature of the populist trend.
  • Culturally, “anti-trans” politics matter, but are chiefly amplified by the internet rather than organically vital to most voters.
  • Social media enables conspiracy-driven, crisis-perpetuating worldviews (e.g., Election denial, anti-vax, “Flight 93-election” rhetoric).

• Notable Quotes:

  • "The unifying characteristic of the right today...is conspiracy thinking." – Fukuyama (46:35)
  • "How can you believe that vaccines are actually harmful?... It's totally crazy assertion, but people believe it nonetheless. And I just don't think that that could have happened before the rise of the Internet..." (47:18)

• Tim’s Pessimistic Take:

  • The problem will “only get worse” with AI, deepfakes, and the splintering of media further.
  • Fukuyama laments the collapse of efforts at content moderation, noting the shutdown of the Stanford Internet Observatory under Republican pressure.

• Potential Solutions:

  • Fukuyama floats “middleware”—letting third-party curators manage/filter content per user preference to reduce top-down platform distortion, while acknowledging this won’t solve the whole problem.
  • He expresses concern that all current and proposed solutions are mostly useable only by young, educated, sophisticated users, which could exacerbate class divides.

• Historical Parallels:

  • The radio served a similar role for Mussolini and Hitler as social media does for today’s demagogues (56:33).

Why Is Liberalism Disliked—and What Does It Mean?

• Clarifying “Liberalism”:

  • Definition: Not “tax and spend” leftism, but a political tradition of limited state power, rule of law, tolerance of difference, and gradual progress.
    • “A system that limits state power...through a rule of law, constitutional checks and balances...” (60:06)

• Right & Left Illiberalism:

  • On the right: Obsession with untrammeled “will of the people,” attacks on checks and balances, courts, and civil service (“I was elected, I have legitimacy, and here are these judges, these rules, holding me back...” – Fukuyama, 61:20).
  • On the left: Increasing tendency to demand not just tolerance, but enforced conformity—e.g., compelling speech or participation in “aggressive tolerance,” losing sight of liberal values (62:44).

• Notable Debate:

  • Tim notes unease about growing left-wing illiberalism too, especially among younger activists who champion their cause but are “less comfortable” living among those different from themselves.
  • Fukuyama warns against using the state to “punish” dissent from progressive norms (bake-the-cake laws, for example).

Why Is Liberalism Out of Vogue?

• Generational Cycles and the “Last Man”

  • Fukuyama references his “End of History” thesis: When societies achieve their freedom and economic security, people become restless and seek struggle for its own sake, sometimes even turning against liberal order.
  • "If men cannot struggle on behalf of a just cause...then they will struggle against the just cause. They'll struggle for the sake of struggle." (67:54)

• Global Examples:

  • In Eastern Europe, generations removed from dictatorship no longer remember life without freedom and can begin to resent the institutions (like the EU) that safeguard stability.

• Cheerful Takeaway:

  • Fukuyama suggests the hope is that illiberal or populist policies, when enacted, will be so obviously harmful—tariffs, isolation, poor governance—that the pendulum will swing back.
    • "People begin to realize that there's a cause and effect relationship between those policies and outcomes that are not as disastrous as living under a communist dictatorship." (70:58)

Democratic Party and the “Abundance Agenda”

• Discussion of Democratic Factions:
  • Fukuyama cautions against a leftward lurch (citing the Corbyn example from UK Labour) and supports centrist, practical leaders with “abundance” or “build and fix” missions.
  • He notes the inertia of “the groups”—advocacy organizations within the Dem coalition whose litmus tests and opposition to infrastructure make real agenda-setting difficult.
    • Example: "[Zoran] Mandani...if he's serious about abundance, he's going to have to go up against these groups." (77:49)

Futurism: Blade Runner and the AI Apocalypse

• Pop Culture:

  • Fukuyama’s favorite movie is Blade Runner, for its meditations on empathy, technology, and atmospheric shift in imagining the future (79:54–81:12).
  • He sees science fiction as a barometer of technological optimism or fear—now tending dark and dystopian.

• AI Threats:

  • Not worried about robot uprisings, but deeply concerned about “bad people using robots to hurt other people.” (83:45)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Trump Immigration Escalation:

  • "How does it make you feel that Tom Homan is the moderating force inside this administration right now?" – Tim Miller (03:14)
  • "It's hard to imagine how they can make it more inhumane than it currently is." – Sam Stein (03:42)

• On ICE Policy Spreading:

  • "What we're in for is like the bad things that we've seen in...relatively isolated geographically—like they're bringing that to everybody." – Tim Miller (07:00)

• On Internet’s Role in Populism:

  • “The unifying characteristic of the right today...is conspiracy thinking.” – Fukuyama (46:35)

• On Liberalism and Tolerance:

  • “The fundamental virtue in liberal societies right from the beginning was the virtue of tolerance.” – Fukuyama (62:44)

• On Populist Cycles:

  • “If men cannot struggle on behalf of a just cause...they will struggle against the just cause. They'll struggle for the sake of struggle.” – Fukuyama (67:54)

• On the Hope for Liberalism:

  • "At a certain point people begin to realize that there's a cause and effect relationship between those policies and outcomes." – Fukuyama (70:58)

Conclusion

This episode covers urgent political developments and sweeping philosophical trends with characteristic Bulwark candor and wit. The first half presents a sobering forecast for immigration policy and Democratic political viability; the second half diagnoses the deeper causes of political malaise, with an eye to the distorting power of technology and the necessity—yet unpopularity—of classical liberalism.

Key Takeaways:

• Aggressive deportation tactics likely to expand nationwide under Trump partisans.
• Democrats need to refocus on economic, “kitchen table” issues, but face structural challenges in changing perceptions.
• Populist authoritarianism is now a global, cross-ideological phenomenon, uniquely accelerated by the internet.
• Liberal democracy’s enemies are both without (in illiberal right) and within (in overzealous left encroachments), but its defense is more necessary than ever.

Recommended Segments:

• Immigration crisis context — (02:09–09:55)
• Venezuela, drugs, and Trump doctrine — (09:55–13:20)
• Democratic messaging memo — (15:44–22:57)
• Fukuyama’s breakdown of populism's causes — (36:40–50:35)
• The malaise and generational struggle against liberalism — (60:06–70:58)

Listen for sharp takes, dark laughs, and earnest warnings about the direction of American—and global—politics.