The Bulwark Podcast: Election Debrief with Sarah Longwell and Jonathan V. Last

Hosts:

• Tim Miller
• Sarah Longwell – Publisher of The Bulwark
• Jonathan V. Last (JVL) – Editor of The Bulwark

Episode Overview:
In this in-depth election debrief, Tim Miller, along with co-hosts Sarah Longwell and Jonathan V. Last, dissect the outcomes of the recent presidential election. They explore the factors contributing to Donald Trump's victory, analyze the Democratic Party's shortcomings, and contemplate the future political landscape. The discussion is enriched with insights from focus groups, demographic analyses, and personal reflections on the implications of the election results.

1. Analysis of the Election Outcome

Sarah Longwell on Fundamental Issues: Sarah begins by highlighting the "ordinary" political factors that influenced the election. She emphasizes that voters were largely dissatisfied with President Biden's performance on key issues such as the economy and immigration, which traditionally favored Trump.

• Key Quote:
  "If you just regardless of what is or isn't, the people who vote are going to tell you how they feel about the economy. And I think they did tell us."
  (01:19)

Tim Miller on Coalition Challenges: Tim echoes Sarah's sentiments, pointing out the reluctance within the coalition to acknowledge losses among Latino and Black voters. He underscores the universal support Trump garnered among white voters, challenging the effectiveness of identity politics in the current climate.

• Key Quote:
  "It's like what I think the Rogan thing... it's like, this guy isn't Hitler."
  (23:07)

JVL's Perspective on Trump's Appeal: Jonathan V. Last (JVL) presents a contrasting view, arguing that Trump's victory was a clear mandate from voters and not merely a result of campaign missteps. He highlights Trump's unprecedented vote share and his ability to outperform down-ballot Republicans.

• Key Quote:
  "This is not. He's run behind down ballot Republicans in both of his previous runs. This time, all of a sudden, he's way out in front of them."
  (06:58)

2. Campaign Strategies and Operations

Lack of Traditional Ground Operations: Tim discusses the diminishing impact of traditional campaign strategies, noting that modern elections are increasingly influenced by candidate performance and media presence rather than extensive ground campaigns.

• Key Insight:
  "This was one of my things I just wanted to talk about... the campaigns themselves are one based on the candidates performance, are one based on external factors and one based on dominating the what you call the meat space of the news."
  (10:14)

Sarah on Campaign Messaging: Sarah critiques Kamala Harris's campaign for lacking authentic connection with voters, arguing that Democrats failed to present a clear and resonant message compared to Trump's relentless and straightforward communication style.

• Key Quote:
  "Trump has been totally normalized and he just added to his vote total each time."
  (29:58)

3. Demographic Shifts and Voting Patterns

Hispanic Voters and Cultural Alignment: Sarah points out a significant shift among Hispanic voters, aligning more closely with white voters' preferences, which contributed to Trump's success in key states like Wisconsin, Illinois, and Texas.

• Key Quote:
  "Non college Hispanics operate like non college white voters. And they broke that way in a major way this time."
  (04:57)

JVL on Gender and Voter Preferences: JVL brings up the challenge Democrats face in fielding female candidates, suggesting that voters are uncomfortable with female presidential candidates despite electing women to other offices.

• Key Quote:
  "There's something fundamental about the country wanting this."
  (16:01)

4. Future Implications and Strategic Outlook

Potential Trump Presidency: The hosts discuss the potential ramifications of a Trump presidency, ranging from domestic policy shifts to international relations. They express concerns about Trump's commitment to democratic institutions and global alliances.

• Tim's Reflection:
  "Donald Trump and like Mitch McConnell, not fucking convicting Donald Trump, like and letting him run again is really, was really the curse of this."
  (28:13)

JVL on International Policy: JVL warns against Trump's possible abandonment of allies and international commitments, fearing a retreat from NATO and support for Ukraine, which could destabilize global alliances and democratic norms.

• Key Quote:
  "Trump's promise to deploy the military against protesters... as part of their coalition against this, like to me feels more like the mindset of what the opposition feels like in like Hungary or Eastern Europe."
  (47:34)

Sarah on Democratic Strategy: Sarah emphasizes the need for the Democratic Party to rebuild and reorient its coalition, focusing on understanding voter sentiments and protecting democratic institutions against potential authoritarian shifts.

• Key Quote:
  "Our role is to do the analysis. But also, and this is why it's different from everybody else, our role is also to do everything we can to protect this country and the democracy and the institutions that undergird it from somebody who wants to burn them to the ground."
  (64:03)

5. Personal Reflections and Emotional Impact

Tim's Emotional Struggle: Tim shares his personal anguish over having to address and combat the rise of a figure like Trump, expressing feelings of hopelessness and frustration.

• Key Quote:
  "I just, it's insane to me that I'm going to spend the prime years of my life having to spend time thinking about the stupidest, most disgusting fucking person in the entire world."
  (63:38)

JVL on Imagination Failures: JVL admits to a "failure of imagination" in anticipating Trump's victory, emphasizing the need for vigilance against the erosion of democratic norms.

• Key Quote:
  "I allowed myself, for the first time since 2016, to suffer from a failure of imagination."
  (59:36)

Sarah on Community and Purpose: Sarah stresses the importance of the Bulwark community in navigating these turbulent times, encouraging listeners to engage actively in preserving democracy despite the emotional toll.

• Key Quote:
  "Our role is to figure out how to get people motivated to get back in the game... we're going to do the work to understand what's happening in the country so that we can figure out how to push back against it."
  (54:31)

6. Looking Forward: Strategies and Concerns

Preserving Democratic Structures: The hosts outline a forward-looking strategy focused on protecting democratic institutions and combating potential authoritarian measures by Trump, emphasizing the urgent need to be prepared for various outcomes.

• Tim's Concerns:
  "The job going forward is not really about stopping him... It's more about thinking about what can be protected."
  (46:01)

Engaging with Voters: They advocate for a nuanced approach to voter engagement, moving beyond identity politics to address the fundamental concerns of various demographic groups, ensuring that the Democratic Party can rebuild a resilient and broad-based coalition.

• Key Insight:
  "The Democrats have a big problem which is that they are culturally out of step with the vast majority, with the majority of Americans on a bunch of cultural issues."
  (31:03)

Addressing Internal Coalition Issues: The discussion touches upon internal Democratic Party dynamics, suggesting that infighting and unwillingness to adapt have contributed to the party's current struggles.

• Sarah's Observation:
  "This is why I do the focus groups... we can sort of see it happened everywhere."
  (28:59)

Conclusion:

The Bulwark Podcast's election debrief offers a comprehensive analysis of Donald Trump's unexpected victory, dissecting underlying political dynamics, demographic shifts, and strategic missteps by the Democratic Party. Hosts Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, and Jonathan V. Last provide a candid and critical evaluation of the current political climate, emphasizing the urgent need for the Democratic Party to adapt and rebuild its coalition. They also delve into the personal and emotional challenges faced by those committed to defending liberal democracy in an increasingly polarized and uncertain environment.

Final Thoughts:
The hosts conclude with a somber reflection on the future, underscoring the importance of resilience, strategic thinking, and community engagement in the face of potential authoritarian threats. They encourage listeners to remain vigilant, informed, and actively involved in safeguarding democratic principles.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Sarah Longwell (01:19):
  "If you just regardless of what is or isn't, the people who vote are going to tell you how they feel about the economy. And I think they did tell us."

• Tim Miller (23:07):
  "Trump has been totally normalized and he just added to his vote total each time."

• Jonathan V. Last (06:58):
  "This is not. He's run behind down ballot Republicans in both of his previous runs. This time, all of a sudden, he's way out in front of them."

• JVL (29:58):
  "Donald Trump and like Mitch McConnell, not fucking convicting Donald Trump, like and letting him run again is really, was really the curse of this."

• Tim Miller (63:38):
  "I just, it's insane to me that I'm going to spend the prime years of my life having to spend time thinking about the stupidest, most disgusting fucking person in the entire world."

• Sarah Longwell (64:03):
  "Our role is to do the analysis. But also, and this is why it's different from everybody else, our role is also to do everything we can to protect this country and the democracy and the institutions that undergird it from somebody who wants to burn them to the ground."

Note:
This summary intentionally omits advertisement sections, intros, outros, and non-content segments to focus solely on the substantive discussions and analyses presented by the hosts.