The Bulwark Podcast — April 21, 2026
Episode Title: Tracy Alloway and Jordan Ritter Conn: The Global Economic Shock from a Stupid War
Host: Tim Miller
Guests: Tracy Alloway (Bloomberg’s Odd Lots), Jordan Ritter Conn (author, journalist)
Theme: The episode explores economic shocks from ongoing geopolitical conflict, especially the Middle East war’s ripple effects on markets, and then turns to a deep discussion of the struggles, expectations, and realities of modern American men, as explored in Ritter Conn’s new book, American Men.
Episode Overview
This episode starts by examining how the current war in the Middle East has created unpredictable and extreme impacts on global markets, supply chains, and everything from oil to fertilizer prices. Tim Miller talks to Tracy Alloway for insights on markets’ bizarre resilience, manipulation or political jawboning, and the downstream effects on everyday commodities.
The second segment features Jordan Ritter Conn, discussing his new book American Men, which explores masculinity, loneliness, changing gender expectations, and the search for community and meaning among American men. The conversation gets personal, intimate, and, at times, quite funny.
Segment 1: Tracy Alloway — The Economic Dominoes of War
Main Discussion Points:
1. Market Reaction to War & Trump’s Influence
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Jawboning the Market:
- Trump’s regular call-ins to financial shows (“Squawk Box”) are seen to drive market optimism, especially before weekends, with subsequent correction when reality sets in (04:04).
- "The expectation is that he announces something along the lines of talks or some sort of ceasefire agreement on a Friday, and then over the weekend the bad news actually hits and then on Monday the markets open lower." — Tracy Alloway (04:04)
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Madman Theory, Inverted:
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Tracy discusses a theory that chaos is now perceived as opportunity by investors:
"The more intensely speculative a market is, the more it views chaos as an opportunity instead of a risk." — Paraphrased from JVL’s theory (06:29)
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Tracy: "I like that... Now we’re seeing markets just recover almost instantaneously. The velocity of those moves have been really unexpected." (04:04–06:54)
2. Market Manipulation vs. Uncertainty
- Are big players participating in active manipulation? Tracy:
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Hard to prove deliberate day-to-day manipulation; what’s clearer is an ongoing strategy to cushion market shocks through rhetoric (05:31).
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"It’s hard to know how much of this is deliberate... versus how much is just part of a general Trump jawboning strategy." (05:56)
3. Fundamentals: Oil, Fertilizer, and Supply Chains
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Oil Markets:
- 20% of global oil and gas supply has been disrupted with potentially years-long recovery ahead (09:02).
- Domestic producers hesitate to ramp up without price certainty. Trump administration’s conflicting goals: encouraging drilling vs. wanting low gas prices (10:00).
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Fertilizer Crunch:
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Middle East supply cutoffs and Chinese export controls are distorting markets (13:04).
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U.S. fertilizer is suddenly cheap but may not last as foreign buyers look to American producers. Companies like CF Industries are emphasizing domestic customers for political reasons (14:00).
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"Even if the US has its own supply... that doesn’t mean prices aren’t going to increase in the future." — Tracy Alloway (14:00)
4. Corporate Behavior in Uncertain Times
- Tech giants aren’t pursuing tariff reimbursements, possibly afraid of political backlash; Tim notes this doesn’t feel like “free-market capitalism” (16:33).
- Patronage and political favor-taking are increasingly visible in big business, e.g., Apple’s Tim Cook praised for his "loyalty" to Trump (18:56).
- "When you read those sorts of statements... it does seem to devolve into something that looks a lot more like a patronage system than free market capitalism." — Tracy Alloway (19:17)
5. The Future: Supply Chain Lessons & Structural Inflation
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Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the world won’t return to pre-war supply chains. Governments will stockpile, driving long-term inflation (19:41–21:54).
- "This is one of those 'the toothpaste can't go back in the tube' moments. Every government is going to try to rebuild its own stockpiles." — Tracy Alloway (19:41)
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Tim: would take a $1 million bet that gas prices will be higher next year, but fears global stagflation, not just winning a bet (20:33–21:54).
Notable Quotes & Moments
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On market unpredictability:
"We are waiting to see the full impact... critical damage to a bunch of oil and gas facilities... going to take years to fully repair." — Tracy Alloway (09:02)
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On structural inflation:
"We've had six years now of talking about unpredictable choke points... I just don't think it's going away." — Tracy Alloway (21:54)
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On corporate deference:
"You guys do fun niche stuff... it devolves into something that looks a lot more like a patronage system than free market capitalism." — Tracy Alloway (19:17)
Segment 2: Jordan Ritter Conn — The Search for Modern Masculinity
Main Discussion Points:
1. The Book: American Men
- Chronicles four very different men wrestling with identity and masculinity (25:04).
- Gideon: ex-military, struggles with self-worth.
- Nate: Black trans man, economic and identity challenges.
- Ryan: Gay Native American, wrestling with violent impulses.
- Joseph: From evangelical background, dealing with trauma.
2. Themes of Masculinity, Violence, and Vulnerability
- Jordan: "I wanted men who... were willing to look at some of the uglier pieces of it" (26:48).
- Each man’s struggle highlights both universal and unique challenges tied to race, sexuality, class, and religion.
- Joseph’s evangelical past frames masculinity as both vulnerability and expectation to lead:
- "Growing up... you have to be a man who other people will follow. I think that often sets us up for relationship structures... not really great for us or our partners." (31:59)
3. Religion as Community vs. Source of Guilt
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The paradox: evangelical settings fostered confession, vulnerability, but were also sources of shame (30:11–31:32).
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Churches and religious settings once created community and accountability (34:13), something now sorely missing.
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"We are, at this moment, kind of starved for structures that foster... being in community... At its best, that's what religion can do." — Jordan Ritter Conn (34:13)
4. The Crisis of Disconnection and Technological Dislocation
- Not just a masculinity crisis, but cultural and technological isolation:
- "We're in a crisis period of people being increasingly dislocated and disconnected from one another... and what comes out is men grasping for their sort of basest impulses." (36:23–36:56)
- Tech and social trends (“prediction markets,” looksmaxing, Andrew Tate) fill the void with often superficial or toxic substitutes for real connection (49:24–51:54).
5. Economic Shifts and the Loss of “Provider” Role
- The erosion of breadwinner jobs complicates men’s self-worth.
- "It's much more complicated to find your way to being in people’s lives in a way that contributes through who you are as a person, not just what you provide." — Jordan Ritter Conn (40:34)
6. Friendship, Loneliness, and Community-Building
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Male friendships diminish over time; few men prioritize maintaining them (41:14–43:14).
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Book research led Jordan back to rebuild his own relationships:
- "I looked up after finishing the book and realized a lot of my friendships had atrophied... I should probably do some fucking work to make sure I’m not one of the lonely men." (45:37)
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Creating structure (like a book club) and prioritizing effort is key to breaking cycles of isolation (46:32).
7. Broader Reflections: Feminist Viewpoints and Intersectional Pushback
- Jordan notes moms of boys have been most eager to read his work; some “intersectional libs” dismiss men’s struggles but he insists half the population’s internal struggles matter, not just for themselves but society (53:00).
- "It’s less demanding more attention from others than it is digging into stuff that we are often... the reason why it’s not really discussed." (53:00)
Notable Quotes & Moments
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On male friendships:
"We often just struggle to do that, struggle to check back in with that person we haven't heard from in a long while... We just don't treat this part of our lives like it matters." — Jordan Ritter Conn (43:04–43:52)
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On the loneliness epidemic:
"We’re in a crisis period of people being increasingly dislocated and disconnected... men grasping for ways to feel like they have worth." (36:23–41:41)
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On self-worth and “looksmaxing”:
"That feeling's not gonna just vanish because you're the 'optimized' version of yourself." (51:18)
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On community in crisis (Minneapolis):
"I haven’t seen a more robust expression of community... People really want to care about each other." (58:13, 59:27)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Market volatility & Trump’s influence: 03:41–07:35
- Oil & supply chain crunch: 09:02–13:04
- Fertilizer crisis: 13:04–15:20
- Patronage and capitalism: 16:33–19:17
- Long-term energy & inflation prospects: 19:41–21:54
- Introduction of American Men book: 25:04–27:00
- Evangelical communities & masculinity: 29:45–34:30
- Masculinity crisis vs. technological loneliness: 36:04–36:56
- Loss of the “provider” role: 37:37–41:41
- Male friendships & vulnerability: 43:04–46:59
- Looksmaxing & modern masculinity trends: 49:24–51:54
- Intersectional pushback & societal takeaways: 53:00–54:17
- Community under crisis (Minneapolis): 57:08–59:27
Memorable & Funny Moments
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Tracy Alloway, dryly on prediction markets:
"Prediction markets are not a substitute for a viable social network. So men should work on those relationships." (03:21)
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On men’s emotional insights:
"The men can always be improved. That’s what I see." — Tracy Alloway (02:43)
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Tim Miller’s RuPaul therapy advice:
"If you don’t love yourself, how the hell are you going to love anybody else?" (52:10)
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On starting male book clubs to fight loneliness:
"I should probably... do some fucking work to make sure that I’m not one of the lonely men." — Jordan Ritter Conn (45:37)
Tone & Style
The episode is brisk, witty, and direct, with quick back-and-forth, humor, and relatable personal anecdotes. Miller’s sharp questions balance the seriousness of economic crises and societal malaise with moments of levity, hope, and gentle prodding for solutions.
Takeaway
The current “stupid war” has kicked off not just global economic shocks that will outlast the conflict, but also underscored the fragility and interconnectedness of both markets and human communities. Meanwhile, the crisis of meaning, loneliness, and shifting masculinity in American men is as acute and complex as ever, with answers found not only in policy but in the slow work of personal outreach, vulnerability, and genuine community.
Listen if you want:
- A crash course on the economic whiplash from global conflict
- Thoughtful analysis of modern loneliness and the changing shape of masculinity
- Insight into how both policy and personal initiative are needed to rebuild what’s lost in society and in our own lives
Key Guests:
Tracy Alloway: @tracyalloway (Twitter/X)
Jordan Ritter Conn: @jrdnrtr (Twitter/X), author of American Men and The Road from Raqqa
End of summary
