The Bulwark Podcast — “Will Saletan: Sorry, but the Democrats Won the Shutdown”

Date: November 10, 2025
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Will Saletan

Episode Overview

In this episode, Tim Miller is joined by Bulwark colleague Will Saletan for a high-energy Monday breakdown of the government shutdown’s resolution. The hosts provide a clear-eyed, somewhat contrarian take on what the Democrats accomplished, pushing back against online outrage that the party “folded.” Topics include the politics and strategy of the shutdown, the filibuster debate, challenges in Republican messaging, Democratic communication missteps, recent pardons by Trump, the consequences of administration immigration policies, the need for moral clarity, and the meaning of crowd reactions to Trump.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Understanding the Shutdown Endgame

• The Deal: Eight Senate Democrats crossed party lines to end the government shutdown, securing short-term funding (until late January), reversing government worker furloughs, promising a vote on Obamacare tax credits, and guaranteeing SNAP (food assistance) funding for two additional years.

  • Key Democrats crossing over: Durbin, Angus King, Tim Kaine, Fetterman, Shaheen, Hassan, Masto, and Rosen
  • Summary: The deal is focused on ending immediate pain without giving up long-term leverage.
  • [02:20]

• Online vs. Real-World Perspectives:

  • Will: “This is not an online thing. This is a real life thing.” [02:24]
  • Political reality: Republicans don’t feel pressure from the shutdown’s human toll; Democrats do.

• What Did Democrats Actually Win?

  • Clearly defined partisan lines on health care for midterms.
  • Democrats stood their ground longer than any previous Tea Party-led shutdown.
  • They fought long enough for the issue to become central and visible.

  Tim: “You can’t negotiate with kamikazes. You can’t win a game of chicken with somebody who wants to crash.” [04:14]

  Will: “The Democrats did not sell out forever, okay? ... They made this deal until the end of January. That’s it.” [02:50]

• Conspiracy or Strategy?

  • The eight Dems who voted to end the shutdown mostly aren’t facing tough reelections; votes were likely coordinated to minimize backlash against vulnerable members.
  • Tim confirms: “I know for sure that's true...I’ve heard from some that are in that boat.” [08:11]

2. Democratic Communication — 'How to Be Mad and Strategic'

• Acknowledging Disappointment:

  • Many supporters are upset about ending the shutdown with healthcare policy unresolved.
  • Emotional frustration is valid, but—per Tim and Will—should be channeled towards effective, ongoing advocacy rather than circular firing squads.

  Tim: “If you're mad, I hear you. I'm mad, too. ... But there's just ways to be mad and strategic.” [09:57]

• Playing the Long Game:

  • Will: “It's gonna take a long time. Civil rights took a long time. Medicare took a long time.” [10:31]
  • The fight for policy priorities is ongoing; patience and perseverance are essential.

3. Procedural Debates and the Filibuster

• Would prolonging the shutdown have forced a change to the filibuster?

  • A critique (Jonathan Chait): Maybe Democrats could have triggered a filibuster repeal by maintaining pressure. [11:22]
  • Will’s institutionalist take: The filibuster serves as a crucial check—even if imperfect—and escalation toward abolishing it would be a “race to the bottom.” [12:08]

  Will: “To get our country back, we need to restore some of these institutions.” [12:52]

  Tim: “The filibuster has been abused to the hilt… Republicans are passing everything by executive fiat right now.” [13:10]

4. Republican Messaging Disaster

• No Policy, Only Process

  • The GOP is fixated on process criticism but has no substantive health care proposal.
  • Trump's team is fumbling for answers: economic advisor Kevin Hassett raises the specter of criminal penalties for government officials, but this only highlights Republican confusion. [16:12]

  Will (on admin priorities): “When it came to SNAP, when it came to, like, feeding people, this administration went to court to argue exactly the opposite.” [17:53]

• Health Care Message Chaos

  • Trump is “brainstorming” on social media with no real policy, while his own cabinet is caught off guard on TV. [21:00, 21:35]

  Will: “It’s just… now it’s brainstorming for the President of the United States to throw out a completely unformed idea on social media that he hasn’t consulted with his own party about.” [22:01]

5. Democrats' Messaging Blunders

• Senators Who Cut the Deal Sound Weak on TV

  • Tim: “The senators who cut the deal are affirming [activists’] position. Every time that they open their mouth...If you're going to cut the deal, then go on TV and be like, ‘Guys, we fought for you for 40 days and 40 nights…’” [22:26]

  • Will: “When the podcasters are making better arguments than the politicians, it tells you the politicians are probably in the wrong job, at least as speakers.” [24:08]

6. Electoral Realities & Tim Dillon Checks In

• Republican Disarray on Economic Issues

  • Citing MAGA podcaster Tim Dillon and even Steve Bannon: The GOP is internally divided and “talking about shit nobody cares about,” while the “pendulum is swinging back to economic concerns.” [26:36]

  • Tim Dillon (quote): “No one’s life is better since Trump took office, by the way. So at the end of the day, it’s like, why not?” [27:16]

  • The Democratic strategic advantage: Focus on pocketbook issues, not process fights.

7. Supreme Court & LGBTQ+ Rights

• Supreme Court Declines to Overturn Same-Sex Marriage

  • Tim shares relief (as a gay man) that the court took a pass on revisiting Obergefell. Panic was understandable, but not justified by the facts. [31:20]

  • Will: “I want people to consider the possibility of indifference… there's not going to be a mass movement to roll back gay marriage...People are just like, look, focus on me and my life.” [31:23]

• Populist Symbolism

  • Gold-ballroom Trump-style excess is (in Will’s view) becoming a meme of elite Republican indifference, and could fuel backlash. [32:45]

8. Trump Pardons and Democratic Law Enforcement

• Wave of Trump Pardons Includes Jan 6, Fake Electors, Jared Kushner Associate

  • Full pardons for major January 6th figures and those linked to election interference signal to future co-conspirators that loyalty will be rewarded.

  • Tim: “It’s a signal to people that want to be a part of those shenanigans that he’ll let them off the hook.” [37:02]

  • Will: “It’s like if you went through the Jack Smith indictment on the fake electors case, and he just, like, literally everybody in there.” [37:09]

  • Reminder: State prosecutions still possible; GA and AZ cases continue but face headwinds [38:29].

• Kushner’s Corrupt Friend Freed, Continues Crime Spree

  • Violent felon Jonathan Braun, pardoned and back to crime, as a testament to long-term consequences of corrupt pardons [39:10].

9. Immigration Atrocities and Moral Urgency

• Brutal Treatment of Seeking Asylum

  • NYT reports highlight horrific abuse in El Salvador prisons where migrants, deported by US authorities, suffered torture and abuse [40:30].
  • Tim links this to a failure of moderate moral leadership, referencing slain Salvadoran Archbishop Oscar Romero’s journey from caution to “unapologetic moral clarity.”

  Tim: “Moderation can be a vice, and Romero, like, lives up to the moment at times… Sometimes our instinct, like, moderation can be a vice.” [44:48]

  Will: “When your country commits or sanctions or is complicit in torture, you have to stand up.” [45:31]

10. Crowd Boos for Trump: A Real-World Feedback Loop

• Trump Faces Boos at Washington Commanders Game

  • Seeking a hero’s welcome, Trump instead receives loud boos when introduced [49:17]; evidence that not all “real Americans” are with him.

  Will: “Sometimes, Tim, when I worry that we are Trump, that Americans are okay with Trump, it consoles me to see things like the election backlash and it consoles me to hear things like that forthright repudiation of him in an NFL stadium.” [50:07]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On negotiating with the GOP:
  “You can’t win a game of chicken with somebody that wants to crash.” – Tim Miller [04:14]

• On Senate Democrats getting a backbone:
  “They did not squish out like me. The blame for the shutdown goes all around.” — Will Saletan [06:50]

• On emotional politics:
  “If you're mad, I hear you...But there's just ways to be mad and strategic.” — Tim Miller [09:57]

• On the impact of priorities:
  “We have an administration that stretches every legal definition to the point of defying court orders...When it came to SNAP...they did exactly the opposite.” — Will Saletan [17:53]

• On internal Republican confusion:
  “Trump is brainstorming about this on Truth Social.” — Tim Miller [22:26]

• On politicians’ communications skills:
  “When the podcasters are making better arguments than the politicians, it tells you the politicians are probably in the wrong job.” — Will Saletan [24:08]

• On Trump’s pardons:
  “If Capone had been elected president, this is what he would have done...Just like, 'I'm going to pardon all of my accomplices.'” — Will Saletan [37:09]

• On moral clarity, El Salvador, and Romero:
  “Sometimes our instinct, like moderation, can be a vice, and Romero lives up to the moment at times…” — Tim Miller [44:48]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Shutdown deal breakdown: [01:14] – [06:39]
• Shifting the expectations, what Democrats actually won: [04:14]
• On coordinated Sen. Dem votes: [08:11]
• Emotional/strategic split for Democrats: [09:57], [10:31]
• Should Dems have forced a filibuster repeal?: [11:22]
• Republicans flailing on messaging, Kevin Hassett: [15:53] – [17:53]
• Trump’s “brainstorming” on healthcare: [21:00], [21:35]
• Dem Senators’ weak public messaging: [22:26], [24:08]
• Tim Dillon/Republicans losing on economic issues: [26:36]
• Supreme Court/gay marriage symbolism & populist backlash: [31:20] – [32:45]
• Pardons as future signals, Capone analogy: [37:02] – [38:29]
• El Salvador prison abuse and Romero’s lesson: [40:30] – [47:11]
• Trump booed at Commanders’ game: [49:17]

Tone, Style, and Highlights

• Tone: Sharp, reality-based, irreverent, energetic; a mix of gallows humor and earnest calls for moral seriousness.
• Language: Direct, plain-spoken, and emotional; high on clarity and urgency.
• Overall Mood: Cautiously optimistic (“ponies in the pile of horseshit”), yet refusing to minimize real harms and challenges.

For New Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

• Cuts through online outrage and clarifies what actually happened in the shutdown fight.
• Offers rare bipartisan perspective and willingness to defend Democratic deal-making as hard-nosed and pragmatic.
• Dissects why Republican talking points aren’t landing and why Democratic messaging matters.
• Spotlights the real-world consequences of Trump’s pardons and immigration policies.
• Stresses the ongoing, long-term nature of political fights—and the need for both moral seriousness and strategic thinking.

“It’s a great pony. A booing pony for everybody.” — Tim Miller [51:06] (on Trump’s public repudiation at the Commanders’ game, and on finding small victories even in discouraging times)