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- [00:00]
A
Hey, everyone, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark. And I'm here with Will Salatin for another Sunday special. Will is our Designated Survivor, which by that I mean if we need someone to watch the Sunday shows, Will's our guy. He's a.
- [00:12]
B
And I survived them. I survived them again.
- [00:14]
A
Yes, and you survived them. You deserve some sort of hazard pay. I think today was kind of a big day because this was the first day of talks between the Iranians and the US Delegations in Switzerland mediated by the Qataris. And then I think the Pakistanis are there, too. It's hard to sort of make out what exactly is going on because there's conflicting reports about whether the talks were shambolic or they're just ongoing. But they started in very typical fashion. And by that I mean Donald Trump decided to roll a grenade, unpin it, and then roll it into the middle of it. I'm going to play for you a news interview that Trey Angst of Fox News did based off of a phone conversation that he had with Trump. The context here is that the Iranians are upset with what's going on in Lebanon still because the Israelis are continuing to attack Lebanon and also because Hezbollah is attacking Israel and Israel is responding to it. There's a war going on, kind of a low grade war going on in southern Lebanon, which is part of the MoU. Like the first clause of the MoU between US and Iran says that has to be considered part of the deal. There cannot be fighting in Lebanon. They're still fighting in Lebanon. Iran responds by saying, well, we're going to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US Says, no, you haven't closed it. So again, back and forth. And then Trump calls into Fox and this is what happens.
- [01:40]
C
Yeah. Hey, guys, good morning. I just spoke with President Trump for more than 20 minutes and he gave some new insight and reaction about the ongoing talks that are taking place in Switzerland and the threats coming from the Iranian regime. President Trump telling Fox News that the US May take over the strait in the future if they have to, and collect tolls. The president described this as the United States being the guardian angel of the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East. And the president said ultimately that would involve the US taking 20% of the oil that passes through the strait. Remember, this comes in reaction to the Iranians seeing, saying they will close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. President Trump tells Fox News he spoke with Iranian officials overnight and said, you close it and you won't have a country. He went on to tell these officials, you won't even make it back to your effing country.
- [02:36]
A
All right, well, Sam, my brain hurts.
- [02:40]
B
Okay, so let's set aside the part where he has negotiations with people and threatens to kill them before they get
- [02:47]
A
back, before they leave.
- [02:49]
B
Negotiating, generally not a well understood principle of diplomacy, that if you want people to talk to you, you generally don't kill them while they're talking to you or before.
- [02:57]
A
But this, I will just say this has been a. It's not like an idle threat like the Israelis were doing this. There is real concern that if you do actually enter negotiations, you may get assassinated. I'm sure this is on the minds of the Iranians.
- [03:09]
B
Yeah, no, they. And obviously Trump always brags, we killed the first set, we killed the second set of leaders. Now we're talking to the third set. So when he, as you say, when he threatens to kill the third set, they're gonna take it seriously and you're not gonna get negotiations. But can we come back to this part about the. That we're gonna take over the strait? We're gonna charge them, not even them. We're gonna take 20% of the oil. And Sam, that's a threat to the whole world. That's a threat that we're just gonna like, steal oil sold by one country to another country, neither of which is us. And so we're thieves. And of course, remember, the reason why Trump is doing this is because he's already been doing it in Venezuela and he's been getting away with it. Right? We're just like, we're confiscating some part of their oil and we're putting it. Americans are putting up with it, the world's putting up with it. So it's more. I don't know, Sam, what's a nice way of saying war crime? I mean, we're.
- [04:03]
A
Well, it's a threatening war crime for sure. I mean, he's talking about destroying the civilization. And then this. The straight for moose stuff is obviously part of it too. But I keep coming back to the fact that at various junctures, he said, we don't even need the straight of Hormuz. It's like, forget it. Let the Europeans deal with it. That's that. That we have enough oil for ourselves. Now he's going to take over the straight of Hormuz. But also the straight of Hormuz is already open, according to him. So why do we need to take it over? It's none of this makes any sense.
- [04:32]
B
So let me throw in one other element that's going on today that's relevant to what you just said. Chris Wright, the Energy secretary, did two interviews today, and he's telling everybody, oh, we have the strait open. And not just that it's open because Iran wants it open. No, we have part of it open under our control. Chris Wright's story is there's actually, Sam, there's actually three parts of the Strait of Hormuz. There's a northern part the Iranians have. There's a middle part that they mined, and then there's this southern passage that we control. He's telling everybody we control it. We've been escorting ships through there. And now for Trump to claim that it's closed, you know, and that. So they're admitting that they don't have control.
- [05:12]
A
Yeah. And then, you know, the other obvious element here is like, if you could take over the Strait of Hormuz, you would have taken over the Strait of Hormuz by now. Right. I mean, this has been sort of a background threat for months where Trump has said, we'll just take it over and then we don't do it. And the reason we don't do it is because it would require an incredibly risky military investment on our part. It would require our boots on the ground. We would see a lot of casualties potentially, but also a huge investment of US Taxpayer. It's not like something we could just sort of put our flag and be like, it's ours, back off. So, you know, if you would. This is the thing, the threats become sort of less teethy. Right. The more you make them.
- [05:54]
B
Right.
- [05:55]
A
And I don't think the Iranians are like that persuaded at this juncture. But it doesn't help negotiations if you're doing it at the onset of the negotiations.
- [06:04]
B
Yeah. I mean, as you say, it's bluster, and everyone's figured out it's bluster. But what you have from the Trump administration, from Donald Trump himself, is simultaneously message number one, the Iranians are begging we control everything. Right. Message number two, and sorry, I'm just going to quote from his truth from a couple months ago.
- [06:23]
A
Yeah.
- [06:23]
B
Open the fucking straight. Right. I mean, you crazy bastards, remember that he's screaming at, yeah, up front, out front. That's supposed to be a threat that we're going to hurt you, but really, that's begging. That's like, we can't open it. So we're asking you to do it.
- [06:37]
A
Gets the other thing to note here. And then we can move on to the. What actually happened in Switzerland today is that the MOU itself does reference the strait. It does talk about free passageway through the strait for 60 days, but it seems to have become sort of the general understanding. I'm not sure anyone has actually authoritatively disputed this, that the Iranians feel like after 60 days they can do what they want with the straight and the Oman authorities, that's the country in the southern part, and that they'll come up with some sort of fee service, more or less. It won't be a toll. They're not going to call it a toll. They'll say it's a fee. And no one seems to be actually saying, no, that's not the case. And in fact, every report from today is that there is negotiations specifically around the street in what the future of the strait is, which is, I guess maybe I'm just sort of naive about this, but that does seem to be a real problem when it comes to negotiations because you're starting from a place that didn't actually exist prior to the war. The war. You know, the straight was open and usable for anyone prior to the war. And now you're negotiating from a point of weakness if you United States, because you have to give a concession of some sorts or fight the concession and the Iranians will say, well, yeah, we'll give you free passageways to the straits, but it's going to cost you. Right. So I just want to put that into, put that out there as some important context.
- [07:56]
B
Yeah, I mean, so, so point number one, what you said about the strait was open. I mean, we have Vance and Trump and everybody in the administration bragging today that they've negotiated to open the strait.
- [08:08]
A
Congrats.
- [08:08]
B
Which was getting us back to square one. That's nothing. You did not. You stopped banging our head against the wall. That's what you did. Right, right. But the other thing about the 60 days, Sam, so the Trump and Vance story is, oh, it'll be open after 60 days, don't worry. Why then did you, Trump and Vance, sign this deal, negotiate this deal that literally says this will be the strait will be open without tolls from US Iran for only 60 days. The word that's literally in the greenhole. That is a concession. And you can't then start the next stage of the negotiations claiming, well, I know we said it was only 60 days, but now presumptively it's going to be open that you put the presumption in the document and the Presumption was after 60 days it's fair game for the Iranians.
- [08:56]
A
Yeah. Well, I don't know if the 60 days is going to be enough for these negotiations, although we'll see. But the first day had its ups and downs. So J.D. vance is the sacrificial lamb for Trump, and he's out there in Switzerland and he's talking with the Iranians. And there was a lot of sort of like, I don't want to call it like the Pruder film analysis, but it was getting close, like body language. Who's back there, who's coming in first, who's coming in second, who's shaking whose hands, and so on. Steve Woff's in the back, but the, the, the sort of. The body language analysts that were in my Twitter feed were getting a little bit tickled by the power dynamics situation here. This video was circulating pretty widely of J.D. vance kind of getting slighted and, like, he's just being ignored by members of some delegation. So let's play the clip. Okay. That was the Qataris. I just want to be clear. And they just don't shake his hand. And he's just sort of sit. Standing there waiting for something. So I don't know if I'm over. Over analyzing it. Maybe it was just a moment, but it does seem like JD's kind of in a weird spot.
- [10:17]
B
Sam, it's not you, it's jd. He, he gestures like he's expecting to get his handshake. Like, don't do, like,