Krystal Ball: The MAGA Neocon Tears Are So Sad

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Bulwark – “Krystal Ball: The MAGA Neocon Tears Are So Sad”

Date: June 17, 2026
Host: Tim Miller
Guest: Krystal Ball

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Overview of Episode Theme

This episode dives into the current state of the Trump administration, with a particular focus on recent political turmoil over key nominations, the aftermath of the disastrous Iran War, deep-seated government corruption, and shifting power dynamics both within the Republican Party and American foreign policy. Krystal Ball, co-host of Breaking Points, offers a populist left perspective, engaging in spirited debate and critique on U.S. political culture, the MAGA movement, and the challenges facing Democrats. The episode is marked by frank assessments, notable schadenfreude over the "neocon tears," and a candid look at the future of progressive politics.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s DNI Nomination Drama and Senate Infighting

(01:18–06:28)

• Trump pulled the hearing for Jay Clayton as DNI because of anger at Senate Republicans for “being mean” about Iran and personnel decisions.
• Bill Pulte nominated as acting DNI:
  • Unqualified, described by Ball as “a genuinely nefarious character” whose only qualification is loyalty to Trump.

    “So it makes sense that Trump would want him there because he’s first and foremost a toady and a loyalist." – Krystal Ball (02:42)

• Republican Senators in ‘YOLO mode’:
  • With some, like Cassidy and Tillis, becoming lame ducks after crossing Trump, a small window of Republican dissent is opening.
  • Mitch McConnell’s health is deteriorating, creating uncertainty in Republican leadership.
• FISA drama:
  • Some Democrats and left-leaning factions are ironically fine with the collapse of FISA if Trump controls DNI:

    “No FISA, no Save America Act. Yeah, we’ll take it.” – Krystal Ball (04:33)

2. Corruption and Megalomania: The Reflecting Pool and White House “Ballroom”

(08:00–15:28)

• Reflecting pool renovation:
  • Expensive, failed cosmetic project for Trump’s birthday and the 250th US anniversary, quickly overrun by algae.
  • Ball: "You literally filled the swamp. Congratulations."
• Trump’s focus on physical legacy and personal gain:
  • White House East Wing torn down for a ‘ballroom’ project, costs ballooned to $600 million, with taxpayers footing half.
  • Donors fund project --> get government contracts, further driving corruption.
  • Ball on local communities:

    "Imagine what, like, a few million dollars would do in a place like this...when you think of it in those terms for local communities, that money could make so much difference." (14:26)

• Speculation that Trump sees the project as a bunker for his own mortality/anxiety about aging.

3. The Iran War Fiasco: Defeat, Aftermath, and the New Middle East

(18:47–29:26)

• Memorandum of Understanding leaks:
  • US agrees to lift sanctions, unfreeze $300B in Iranian assets, allow Iranian oil exports.
  • Ball:

    “We lost the war. I mean, that’s the bottom line. We lost the war. It was a disaster. It was illegal, it was immoral, it was horrific for Iran, horrific for civilians throughout the region.” (20:47)

• Reckoning for neoconservatives:
  • The “pro-Israel neocon wing” is devastated; goals that could have been achieved peacefully are lost.
  • Iran’s new power resembles a "nuclear weapon" via control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• On whether Trump has been “humiliated”:
  • Ball emphasizes the original sin is the war, not the terms of surrender, pushing back against narratives that Trump is simply “giving a gift to the mullahs.”

    “The original sin is the war...the disaster comes from starting the war in the first place.” (26:04)

• Miller and Ball debate if the regime in Iran is now undeniably stronger and the implications for US and regional policy.

4. Schadenfreude: The “MAGA Neocon Tears”

(32:48–42:45)

• Audio clips from the Commentary podcast showcase conservative intellectuals’ anguish about Trump’s Middle East failures:

  “America is going to be in a strategically, tactically and militarily worse position than it was under Biden...Better that we shouldn’t have done it in the first place.” – John Podhoretz (32:48)

  • Ball: “How about that?” in response to the anti-war conclusion.
• Analysis of how pro-Israel and neoconservative commentators have realized their vision imploded, and Trump’s corruption (previously tolerated) is now being openly lamented:

  “Trump was getting bribed. You know it, we know it, everybody knows that Trump was getting bribed. But as long as he was also doing what Israel wanted...we'll just look the other way.” – Tim Miller (41:15)

• Ball and Miller agree it's possible the war could reignite, but also highlight the shifted power balance in the Middle East, and the shattering of the myth of Israel’s unlimited influence over US policy.

  “At the end of the day, we are the superpower. Trump is making the decisions, he is driving the train and he is responsible.” – Krystal Ball (38:19)

5. Political Outrage, Motivation, and Populist Energy

(43:15–46:31)

• Discussion on what genuinely angers political hosts like Miller and Ball:

  “We're not part of the game...It’s not performance. We're not doing who's up, who's down.” – Tim Miller (43:15)

• Ball says the war is at the top of her list, as it played with millions of lives and global stability, but sees potential for a reckoning (“a better situation for Iran to check Israel...I think that reckoning is important.” (44:14))
• Both hosts agree that real change is needed as U.S. hegemony wanes, with Ball hopeful that this shift may result in more renewable energy and an eventual adjustment to a multipolar world.
  • Miller remains earnest but more pessimistic about the immediate future.

6. Democratic Party, Populism, and the Path Forward

(48:04–57:50)

• Miller critiques the populist left’s theory of Democratic underperformance:
  • “It isn’t ever paired with any moderation on any other issues where the Democrats are out of step with voters, though.”
• Ball responds:
  • Voters give grace to leftists if they focus on material concerns above all ("first things first").
  • Ball advocates for shifting litmus tests from culture-war issues to economic populism:

    “There should be some room to maneuver on cultural issues...that's the polar opposite of what the Democratic Party has been in recent years.” (51:48)

• Debate over whether the left-populist approach has proven electorally successful in tough races.
• Ball's view: not just about immediate electoral wins, but necessary to ward off the "fascist slide" in America.

7. Debate on Culture, Diversity Programming, and "Awokening"

(57:50–62:47)

• Discussion about diversity programs like California's LGBT contract certification:
  • Ball calls for universalist programs, criticizes performative liberalism, and expresses skepticism about identity-targeted economic programs.

    “The most effective programs that have lifted all boats and made the country a better and more equal place are the ones that have taken a universal lens.” (59:09)

• On the “awokening” and overreach:
  • Both are critical of word-policing and excessive virtue signaling, though Ball defends calling out racism when it’s warranted.
• Miller notes Democratic “niceness” in contrast to Republican infighting and suggests being able to self-criticize could be healthy for the coalition.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Krystal Ball on Trump’s personnel choices:

  “Bill Pulte is a genuinely nefarious character...first and foremost a toady and a loyalist who would have no business anywhere in any administration…” (02:42)

• Schadenfreude Over Neocon Meltdown:

  “Better that we shouldn’t have done it in the first place.” – John Podhoretz from Commentary podcast (32:48)
  “How about that?” – Krystal Ball (33:27)

• On the Iran War's Original Sin:

  “The original sin is the war...the disaster comes from starting the war in the first place.” – Krystal Ball (26:04)

• Trump’s Corruption:

  “Trump was getting bribed. You know it, we know it, everybody knows that Trump was getting bribed. But as long as he was also doing what Israel wanted...we'll just look the other way.” – Tim Miller (41:15)

• Ball on Democratic Focus:

  "There should be some room to maneuver on cultural issues...first things first." (51:48)

• Ball on Social Programs:

  “The most effective programs...are the ones that have taken a universal lens.” (59:09)

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Segment Timestamps

• Intro / MSNBC “The Cycle” Nostalgia: 00:41–01:37
• Trump’s DNI drama + Bill Pulte: 01:18–06:28
• Reflecting Pool & Corruption: 08:00–15:28
• Iran War, Surrender, Aftermath: 18:47–29:26
• Schadenfreude: Neocon Tears: 32:48–42:45
• Motivation & Outrage in Populist Media: 43:15–46:31
• Democratic Party, Populism, and Future Strategy: 48:04–57:50
• Culture, “Awokening,” and Coalition-Building: 57:50–62:47
• Closing/Niceness in Politics: 62:47–end

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Tone & Takeaways

Frank, irreverent, and impassioned, this episode offers a left-populist-liberal dialogue critical of both dominant parties’ failures and the establishment’s blind spots. It balances serious policy analysis of war and corruption with moments of schadenfreude, self-reflection, and practical advice for future political strategy. Both Miller and Ball push for honest appraisal of mistakes—Trump’s, the GOP’s, and also those of establishment Democrats—and ponder what true change (not just tactical tweaks) would look like for American politics.

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Listen if: You want a comprehensive, unsparing, and often witty look at the tumultuous state of US politics and the challenge of building a better democratic future.

Transcript

[Ryan Seacrest]

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[Tim Miller]

Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. Delighted to welcome to the show co host of Breaking Points and Crystal, Kyle and Friends, somebody that we're long overdue to have on the pod. To be honest, someone who's, I think career bio should mention, a pretty important turn on the cycle. One of my favorite afternoon MSNBC shows, it's Crystal Park.

[Crystal Ball]

You were a cycle watcher.

[Tim Miller]

I loved the cycle.

[Crystal Ball]

We had fun. It was a more innocent time.

[Tim Miller]

It was you, it was ture, it was Ari Melber. My old girl Abby Huntsman was on for a little bit.

[Crystal Ball]

That's right.

[Tim Miller]

Who else did it?

[Crystal Ball]

So originally the original crew was instead of Abby and Ari, it was Steve Kornacki who got pulled very quickly to replace Chris Hayes on his weekend show originally. And then Chris Hayes went to primetime and SE cup and then she moved to cnn. Abby came in.

[Tim Miller]

That's right when I was watching it originally. Well, I feel like you guys are ahead of your time. You know, there was some like a little heterodox arguing kind of show. I don't know. I feel like MSNBC should probably bring something like the Psycho back. Rachel Cutler doesn't listen to me. And it's now it's called out. All right, we're going to do some news. We're going to do some victory laps, and then maybe we'll hash out a couple disagreements, maybe on some lefty stuff. All right. On the news front this morning, Trump has canceled the nomination hearing for Jay Clayton, who he had nominated to be the head of dni. This is not traditional. Usually the Senate majority leader gets to decide the scheduling on what happens on the Hill for these sorts of nominations. But Trump is mad at John Thune and the other senators for being mean to him about the Iran war stuff. They're mad because they were mean to him about the Bill Pulte nomination. And so he basically said, f you, I'm gonna pull back the Jay Clayton nomination. We are gonna make Bill Pulte the acting dni and you guys can suck it, basically. So that's the state of affairs.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, Bill Pulte is a genuinely nefarious character who's been at the scene of many Trump era crimes, including using supposed mortgage fraud alle to go after Trump opponents. And he's also, of course, completely unqualified for the post of Director of National Intelligence. So it makes sense that Trump would want him there because he's first and foremost a toady and a loyalist who would have no business anywhere in any administration other than this one, where basically sycophancy and your ass kissing abilities and ability to stir up trouble for Trump opponents is the top and primary qualification.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean, I think that that is a particularly nefarious place to put him. Right as Director of National Intelligence.

[Crystal Ball]

Oh, of course.

[Tim Miller]

And like Trump's bleat was like the Magna Carta explaining this and he's like giving all kinds of.

[Crystal Ball]

I had a lot of trouble following.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, he's giving lots of cockamamie reasons it's not worth going into. So you have to do some Kremlinology. And I'm unsure whether Trump is just absolutely committed to having Bill Pulte in there for a little bit so he can cause trouble, or whether this is like Trump the toddler lashing out at Senate Republicans because they have been not showing a ton of spine, but bucking him somewhat, both on the Pulte nomination and with some commentary on the emerging Iran deal. The one thing that happened basically was that FISA had expired last week and there's a bipartisan group of senators who was just like, basically, we're not going to reauthorize FISA with Bill Pulte running the dni. You can't trust this person with these kinds of powers. There's some interesting subplots to that. So what Trump is now saying is like, no FISA without the Save act and I'm not gonna give you a responsible dni. And you know, at some level, I kind of wonder if the crystal ball faction of the Democratic Party look at this and are kind of like, okay, bro, fine. No fisa. That's fine.

[Crystal Ball]

No fisa, no Save America Act. Yeah, we'll take it. I mean, the consequences for potential election rigging are unsettling. You know, I don't know what he has planned. They were pushing this new rule with the that they weren't going to deliver any mail in ballots for states that refused to turn over their voter rolls to the federal government. So an attempt to bully States, many of them are already in litigation against the federal government, saying, no, we don't have to turn over our voter rolls to you. So there is a lot of shenanigans going on. And, you know, with Tulsi Gabbard showing up in Fulton county and doing that whole whatever that was, you know, he's been involving the intelligence community in whatever they're trying to do to tilt the playing field in the midterm election. So it's definitely unsettling from that perspective because certainly Bill Pulte has absolutely no scruples or morals whatsoever. You know, on the political side, it's kind of interesting. Trump has successfully taken out a few Senate Republican senators who crossed him in mild ways. Cassidy is now a lame duck. Tom Tillis is now a lame duck. So you've got a handful, Cornyn, who

[Tim Miller]

barely even crossed him, but he fucked him anyway.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, Cassidy, too, barely crossed him and voted for RFK Jr even though he clearly had a lot of reluctance around that, in any case. So you've got a few now who either are in very difficult contests, like Susan Collins up in Maine, or they're on their way out. So they're in kind of a potential YOLO mode. So he may not have as much hold and compliance from the Senate Republicans as he used to. Now the vast majority of them are going to continue to kiss his ass, do whatever he wants, and embarrass and humiliate themselves in all the way that that are required in the Republican Party these days. But there might be a slight degree more of dissent that there was previously. And that also ties in with the fact that he is just, like, dismally unpopular on every level and especially on economic issues.

[Tim Miller]

You also have Mitch McConnell, who is, like, literally dying in the Senate right now.

[Crystal Ball]

Is he out of the hospital? Yeah. What is going on with him?

[Tim Miller]

I mean, he's been in a wheelchair. I feel like there's been kind of not a lot of coverage of it. Like, we're a little bit into Dianne Feinstein territory for some reason. I don't know. I think Hill reporters don't want to embarrass them or something. But, yeah, I mean, according to Joe Pero and our guy in the Hill, he's been going around in wheelchair for. For a couple weeks now, and he's got really bad. All the stuff that you see on Trump's hands that is kind of mild, you know, like he's got discoloration on his legs and his hands, and that seems not good.

[Crystal Ball]

You remember when he had what, two different instances where he would just freeze on camera and then they were like, no, he's fine. Like, I don't think so. I don't think that's a fun, fine, healthy thing to do. But, yeah, I mean, it's crazy that you do have. Thank good God that, you know, you guys and drop site and TMZ now are on Capitol Hill and you don't follow these rules of decorum, which are really just meant to protect powerful people, because, yeah, the American people have a right to know whether their representatives are like, with it cognitively and doing anything, able to, you know, understand the issues and cast votes and show for work. You still got this. This Tom Keene character in New Jersey. Republican congressman who's been absent for months.

[Tim Miller]

He's missing.

[Crystal Ball]

Completely missing. Won his primary while completely missing in action. Zero transparency. One of his aides said something, something ominous. Like, where Tom is, there's no cameras. That's the most that we've heard about it. So I don't know what's going on there.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, that one is wild. There was a really good, like, substack of a guy who went to some island off of Connecticut where he heard Tom Keene was. And it's like, only a rich person's island off of Connecticut. He couldn't find him. Anyway, Tom Keene's still missing. I want to go to the Trump corruption stuff and we can get some giggles about. And, you know, Even though it's $13 million of our money, we can still kind of laugh about it. That the reflecting pool, the beautiful blue reflecting pool that we had a full renovation on, you know, because Mr. Trump wanted it to look nice and pretty for his birthday party and for the 250 celebration. It was blue for, like, 36 hours. And now the algae is back. And, you know, if you put a still water, large pool in the middle of a swamp, this is going to happen. You know, it wasn't that the past presidents didn't try to make the park pretty because it couldn't, because they loved the green pool. It's just like, I live in Louisiana. It's like this is what it looks like if you have stagnant water sitting somewhere. So the pool is now green again. We had our guy, Brendan was down there yesterday. They're like dumping hydrogen peroxide in there. I mean, this doesn't really matter in the grand scale of things, of all the other stuff, but it's related to his corruption and waste and megalomania. So I guess there's that completely no,

[Crystal Ball]

it's a perfect, like, little mini emblem. Not to mention the, like, oh, you're gonna drain the swamp jokes write themselves. They're almost too cliche to even bring up. Like, you literally filled the swamp. Congratulations. Because you take something that was, again, very minor in the scheme of things, but was a problem, like the reflecting pool, had an issue. Trump, because of the color that he painted it and insisted on painting it without asking anyone for advice on, like, hey, how do we actually clean this up? Makes it worse. So take something that's a problem, make it way worse, and then you throw, sprinkle a little corruption on top of it. Let me make sure it's a no bid contract and I pad the margins and give it to a friend so that they can, you know, participate in this whole thing. And then of course, the, the narcissism of how a lot of his primary focus is on these projects that, you know, physical building projects so that he can leave his imprint, his mark on the world like a dog pissing on their territory. You know, whether it's that, whether it's the ballroom, whether it's the Arc de Trump, and even I think it ties in with his whole approach to Iran, how he decided to enter into this illegal, immoral, disastrous war in the first place because he wanted to be the guy who did the thing on Iran. And now, you know, coming out of it, I think he probably is persuaded on the other side, oh, you're going to be the one that leaves this legacy of peace in the Middle east, which is how his dopey vice president is selling it.

[Tim Miller]

And the other part of it, that he wanted it done in time for the birthday party, in time for the 250 celebration, which is now a Trump rally. How are you processing and handling that? The idea that he's just like, the 250th anniversary of America is a Trump rally. Is Breaking Points even going to cover it? Does Breaking Points even like America, I guess. I mean. No, I meant the actual day, the celebration. Are you just going to check it off? You might not be offended because you're like, who cares? Actually, you weren't that excited about it in the first place.

[Crystal Ball]

I don't know myself. I won't speak for everybody at Breaking Points. I love the ideals of America, right? The, you know, the rights, the freedom, the pluralism. And watching the World cup or watching the Olympics and thinking about the idea of this nation that was never conceived in, like, blood and soil, that was always meant to be this pluralistic, multi ethnic democracy. I think that's incredible. I think that's aspirational. You know, that is what I love and admire about this country, why I'm so deeply offended by this administration who stands against all of those things. So. So, yeah, it's part and parcel of the way that he has personalized the presidency, sought to give himself the powers of a king, sought to insulate himself from any criticism whatsoever, is, you know, completely disallowed, which is how he's gotten himself in and us in the world into utterly disastrous situations. So, you know, we will. We covered the UFC stuff, of course. You know, we'll. We'll cover the aspects of it that are relevant. Do I think it's the most important thing in the world? No. But I do think it's emblematic of his approach to the world and how he just makes everything gross and bad and corrupt.

[Tim Miller]

Love that you're stirring my spirit with some pluralism talk, Crystal. One more thing on this front is the ballroom story from the Post. So the timeline, just to bring people up to speed, last June, when he said he was going to do the ballroom, it was going to be compliments of Trump. They bring in the bulldozer, they tear down the East Wing, they don't get approval. He's like, don't worry about this. Patriot donors are going to contribute funding to this. It's not going to be you guys at all. In November, he told reporters that not one penny is being used for the federal government. Fast forward to now. The whole project has ballooned to 600 million from the 200 million donation. Now it's a $600 million project, and according to internal documents acquired by the Post, taxpayers are expected to pay more than 300 million. Half of it. So we have a totally just destructed East Wing in rubble on the White House lawn, and now we're footing the bill, too. So you got the corruption and the crypt and the taxpayer waste altogether.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah. And neither way is great, right? I mean, if donors are funding it, that's also a problem.

[Tim Miller]

And a bunch of those donors have gotten contracts. That was also part of the story. Right? Like, of course.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah. Oh, they'll all give you a million for your ballroom. And then you know what? Contracts are gonna flow to them through the government's coffers, which also ends up being on the backs of the table taxpayer. So really, the taxpayer is paying either way. But, yeah, it just becomes another funnel for corrupt dealings for him when it's the donor way. But, yeah, taxpayers are. This is not a priority for for taxpayers. This is one of the areas where Republicans were even a bit resistant of, like, I don't know if we really can get away with funding this. And I know when you're dealing with a gigantic federal government budget, it's easy to become blase about a few hundred billion dollars. Who cares? But I heard actually Dave Smith, who's libertarian, putting it in perspective in a way that I thought was very compelling and very important, which is, like, I live in a relatively small town. You know, my kids go to public school here. The public schools here struggle to pay their teachers competitive salaries. So we're not constantly losing them to Northern Virginia, where they have a, you know, more wealth and larger tax base and are able to pay people better. Imagine what, like, a few million dollars would do in a place like this, right? There's a lot.

[Tim Miller]

You could probably use some new facilities at the school.

[Crystal Ball]

Absolutely. We are, you know, really in need of some new schools. We could use a rec facility. Like, there's all kinds of things. A teacher pay, like I said before, that we could use. It was a big deal they're putting in a sidewalk so kids don't risk their lives crossing the street to the sheets. That's like our big capital investment here. And so, you know, when you think of it in those terms for local communities, that money could make so much difference. And instead it's going to his ego project. And it's not just, I think, about his ego and these monuments to himself. I think also, as he approaches the end of his life, he's very fearful about his mortality. He continually talks about how it's gonna be this bunker, how they're gonna have a medical hospital, et cetera. And so I think that's also part of his obsession. But the Washington Post, I think, were the ones who also did the analysis about how much he talks about it. And it's not just our Trump derangement. Like, it literally is the thing. If you analyze the words that he says, it is the thing he talks about the most. It truly is the thing he is most obsessed with.

[Tim Miller]

Kevin saying, we think it might be an ADU for him after 2028, he's hoping to get JD or Don Jr or Marco in there. Then he can kind of live in the bunker and go back and forth between the bunker.

[Crystal Ball]

Can you imagine that?

[Tim Miller]

Go back and forth between the bunker and Mar a Lago. You need him around. Kind of like how you have the in laws in the in law suite.

[Crystal Ball]

Anyway, Trump popping up from the basement, That's a terrifying Thought,

[Tim Miller]

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[Crystal Ball]

I just don't do it performatively. I just live my life, you know, take my kids to school, soccer practice, gymnastics. I don't have to like post on Instagram my apple pie. I bite baked or whatever.

[Tim Miller]

You maybe should Though it's just a little spoof. You should do an Instagram reel. That's like a trad life spoof. I would enjoy it. Anyway, you'd reach out and said, kyle, who's also a radical leftist, you guys are united in your family. This is not a Mary Madeline, James Carville situation. You guys are very aligned. And you're like, Kyle is like, you're really sounding like him. I was like, I don't know if I should take that. I forget if that was about the war or about my increasing openness to punitive taxation on the ultra wealthy. But on one of the topics, I

[Crystal Ball]

think it might have been that one.

[Tim Miller]

It might have been that one. I'm coming along a little bit. And so we've been totally aligned on the war stuff. In part. I don't think it has anything to do with ideology. I think it's because it was the stupidest fucking war imaginable. And anybody who wasn't blinded by their hatred of Iran or love of Donald Trump could see that this was a stupid plan from the jump. But we've landed here. We have this supposed memorandum of agreement. The text of it has been leaked to Bloomberg. Who the hell knows? They could change some of it between now and Friday. They could back out. Lots of stuff can happen. But I do think there are three items in the deal I just want to highlight. Number six is that the United States will undergo with its regional partners the creation of a plan for Iran reconstruction that would have financing of at least 300 billion. At least.

[Crystal Ball]

Sure. I'm sure Kushner and Wyckoff are gonna get their beaks wet with that one. I'm sure.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, boy. I bet they're hoping to get it up above 300 billion. Think about the kind of real estate money they've got.

[Crystal Ball]

Opportunities.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, the Jared Kushner rebuilt school for girls and golf course and hotel. I think that's kind of where they're probably going. The United States undertakes that immediately after this MOU and until the date lifting of sanctions, we're going to issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products. So all our sanctions are off while we go through this MOU process. And then number 11 was the United States that said, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets, that the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. So basically, to open the Strait of Hormuz, we are lifting sanctions, allowing them to sell their oil, we're going to allow them to get frozen or restricted funds that have been previously sanctioned because of their terrorism and support for terrorism. And the Kushner Wyckoff clan is going to work with the Iranians to rebuild the country. That doesn't seem like what the original goals of the operation were to me.

[Crystal Ball]

Well, yeah, I mean, since we collapsed to the goal of the operation being to return the Strait of Forbooze to something approximating what it was prior to the war. No, look, we lost the war. I mean, that's the. The bottom line. We lost the war. It was a disaster. It was illegal, it was immoral, it was horrific for Iran, it was horrific for civilians throughout the region. It's horrific for the United States, especially for the, you know, pro Israel neocon wing has to be the most aggrieved by the way that this is ultimately turning. What was available at the negotiating table with no bloodshed and no missiles flying is no longer available. So the, you know, Iranians are going to secure the gains that they want on the battlefield and it was just a matter of time, a matter of how long would it take? How much pain would Trump have to sustain before he dealt with that new reality that was established by his failed war? So that's where we are. And I saw Stephen Chung, you know, the White House, whatever his communications, social media dude, saying that the text of the memo of understanding is not accurate. That's been put out now both by Bloomberg and by cnn. You're right. Some of the details may change, but, you know, the outline of it sounds very much like what the Iranians have been insisting basically the entire time. We want our money which unfrozen, we want the sanctions lifted, and we, we are going to control the Strait of Hormuz. Now, there's some semantics around whether they're going to charge a toll or an environmental responsibility fee or whatever it is, but there is going to be a new status quo there. And I think 10 years from now, too, Tim, that the US will no longer be, you know, in the region with all of these bases the way that we have been, because what purpose are they serving at this point? You know, we had to pull our soldiers from our own bases which were decimated in this failed, disastrous, idiotic, immoral war. And rather than serving as protection for those countries, they turn those countries into targets.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Yeah.

[Crystal Ball]

So it creates a new reality.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. If you're the Kuwaitis, you got to be reconsidering some of this. Like, is it worth.

[Crystal Ball]

Right, of course. I mean, if you're uae and I know they were very, you know, gung ho about a lot of this. But, you know, their economy is very heavily based on the idea that they're this sort of, you know, sanctuary for the global wealthiest.1% elite with and their hotels were getting, you know, drone struck. So are you going to be able to maintain that brand? There's a lot of places for the global elite to go. So it was quite damaging to the whole region.

[Tim Miller]

The dark part of me, I don't like to submit to my dark side too often, but I had a moment of weakness watching some of the Instagram influencer videos from Dubai.

[Crystal Ball]

It was hard not to enjoy it.

[Tim Miller]

People like, I was supposed to be safe here. This was supposed to be my tax safe haven for the money that I grifted and stole from people all over the world.

[Crystal Ball]

And we're going to live the highest. My money laundering was supposed to be safe here. Yeah, it was hard not to enjoy that. It's hard for me not to enjoy. Also the Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, we're getting there. I've got one question. Yeah, we need to earn the neocon tears. We got to earn it. So before we get there, where are you at on this? There is kind of an ongoing conversation. This is going to be happening now for a while. Whatever the supposed MOU will be Friday, 60 days from that is the end of ceasefire. There's going to be a lot of jockeying. The pro Israel lobby in particular, I think is going to do everything they can to try to scuttle the deal.

[Crystal Ball]

No doubt.

[Tim Miller]

People trying to convince Trump and they may succeed. Yeah, they may succeed. Yeah. There'll be people internal and external to the administration trying to get Trump back in. So there's a lot of jockeying ahead. And because of that, there's some on the left, like your colleague Ryan Grimm, Bernie's old former policy advisor, Matt Dust was saying this that people need to chill out about. The Democrats need to chill out about calling Trump a wimp and saying he's been humiliated and like putting up the big L on the forehead because that is in some way in service of like a campaign to get him back into the war. And I disagree with that personally. I think that if she was on the other foot, Fox would be, you know, making fun of Obama and talking about how wimpy he is and how he's an arugula eating bike rider and whatever. And I think that like Trump deserves that. Like he said, we are going to ask for unconditional surrender. And now Trump is surrendering And I think the shine should come off his tough guy act. But I at least understand the argument from the other side. How do you kind of hash that out and think how Democrats should handle this?

[Crystal Ball]

I mean, I guess I don't think of it too much in, like, political strategic terms. I just think about it in terms of telling the truth about what the original sin was. Here is not now the inevitable deal which is going to improve Iran's position because they won the war. The original sin is the war.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Right.

[Crystal Ball]

That's where the problem really lies and that's where the criticism should go. So, for example, I saw your post about how this is a, quote, gift to the mullahs, which I don't know if you're trolling, I don't know if you're like relapsing so neocon way.

[Tim Miller]

It is a gift to the mullahs, is it not?

[Crystal Ball]

It's not a gift. No, it's not a gift. It's what I mean, the mullahs are

[Tim Miller]

stronger now than they were before the war. They're gonna have more money than they did before.

[Crystal Ball]

The mullahs framing is also very right wing coded. But in any case, they are mullahs. It's.

[Tim Miller]

I mean, they're bad. We can agree they're bad, sure.

[Crystal Ball]

But like Israel is, is the biggest terrorist in the region. We funded a genocide. Okay? So I'm not really feeling too confident in our ability to moralize about really any regime in the entire world.

[Tim Miller]

But Tim, and Iran killed like 42,000 unarmed protesters earlier this year.

[Crystal Ball]

I'm not here to, like, I don't want to live in Iran. Right. I don't want to live in Islamic Republicans. But I also think that US bombing them, has that helped the protesters? No, I'm sure it's given them pretext to be able to crack down even more aggressively if that's what they want to do. But the framing of it's a gift to the mullahs. It's not a gift. They won the war. This is what is going to be required to end the war. Is it a disaster? Of course. But the disaster comes from starting the war in the first place. I mean, really, the disaster comes from getting out of the JCPOA to begin with. But there was a deal on the table before the bomb started flying that is significantly superior to what we are getting now. And that is a result of our hubris. That is a result of the fact that Trump did not take seriously that they could close the Strait of Hormuz. And you Know, now, with regard to the nuclear negotiations, I think Iran could afford to be in a way much more generous simply because the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz is in itself a sort of nuclear weapon. Because what is a nuclear weapon? It's about deterrence, right? They have now demonstrated they have this incredible economic power. They are going to, you know, be much more of a force in the region, in the world. And no matter whether we give them the $300 billion reconstruction fund or not, there's no putting that toothpaste back in the tube. That's just the reality that has been sort of birthed by this entire disaster.

[Tim Miller]

I agree with all of your assessment. I think that we can nitpick each other over our language choice of how to describe it. I think that the Iranian regime is certainly strengthened, whether we want to use the word gift or whatever. The mullahs that run Iran are stronger now than they were before because of all those reasons you laid out and because of the fact that our position is now weaker and they were a weakening regime, in addition to the fact that this deal is worse than the deal that was on the table. If you are of the view that it would be good for there to be regime change in Iran, regardless of I putting aside whether or not you think we should be involved in that, but like you're, if you're the view that that would be good, like that's less likely now, right? Like the regime, their regime is stronger

[Crystal Ball]

than it was before, perhaps that that may be true and very difficult to say. But you know, the government there is very unpopular. You know, it's not like people are enjoying the repression. Our sanctions have also been devastating, though, to the people of Iran. I mean, that has been genuinely harmful to the entire population. And so in the same way that all our long term sanctions policy in Cuba has not succeeded in creating the regime overthrow that we thought that it would pressure it to do. There is a possibility here that with the sanctions lifted, where the US Is no longer an excuse for the failings and incompetence of the government, that you actually have more of a shot of some sort of a change. But regardless, that's up to them, right? That's not up to us. And when we get in and try to do it, we just make life vastly more miserable for the people of that country. If we haven't learned that in Afghanistan and Iraq and Syria and Libya, I don't know when we're going to learn that lesson.

[Tim Miller]

I'm not optimistic about that. But fair, Americans are carrying over a trillion dollars in credit card debt at rates north of 23%. Insane. That is more than $200 billion a year in interest, paid mostly by households who happen to be sitting on the largest pool of untapped home equity in U.S. history. Think about that for a second. You own a home, you've built real equity in it. And yet when you need capital for a remodel, for a debt consolidation, for something your household budget didn't plan for, the financial system routes you to a 23% unsecured card instead of letting you borrow against the asset you already own. That is one of the quietest taxes in the American middle class, and the big banks are not racing to fix it. Avon built the first home equity line of credit issued on a Visa card. The same swipe that used to cost you 23% now costs you a fraction because it is secured by the value you have already built. That is hundreds of dollars a month back in your pocket. And if you have been putting off a remodel, here's a case for getting on it. A well scoped renovation is one of the few purchases that actually pays you back since it makes the house worth more. With Aven, you can check your offer at no cost with no impact to your credit score. There are no hidden fees and because you own a home, you qualify for a rate the credit card simply cannot offer. Go to aven.com to discover your offer. That's a v e n.com aven stop overpaying for capital. Aven accounts are arranged by aven Financial Inc. NMLS 2042345. Aven accounts are issued and held by Coastal community bank member FDIC equal housing lender NMLS 462289. Aven cards are issued pursuant to a license from Visa USA Inc. Terms and conditions apply, subject to credit and property approval. Visit aven.com for more details. Let's move to the tiers. Let's move to our agreement. When I had your colleague Seger on, I don't know, three months ago, the start of the war, one thing he was kind of surprised I think by how much I agreed with him on this because of my I am more sympathetic as people can tell, I think from this last conversation about creative ideas, creative solutions for spurring freedom around the world than maybe I think some who believe that the US should just mind their own business are and I maintain more of a globalist perspective on that. That said, the particulars of this war was obviously stupid and it was in particular the Pro Israel right. That was pushing this and pushing Trump to get in it. I'm not saying that they were like, you know, puppet masters behind the scenes, but that they were arguing for it and that the biggest supporters of the kind of neocon right and the pro Israel right and the commentariat were the biggest supporters of the war, as you mentioned earlier, Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin, et cetera. On the next level, we went through a long list of the tears and I don't want to do that right now because a lot of them are still trying to stay in their good graces. Like, I watched Ben Shapiro and it just didn't really satisfy me. I want him to actually cry about how bad it is, but he still wants to kind of like play both sides a little bit. So he is being very measured. The folks at the commentary podcast were not measured. Yes, they were very, very upset. And so I listened to the entire podcast, which I've not done for a while because we're all fallen and we can enjoy Schadenfreude. They wanted the war. They thought it was going to help Israel. They thought it meant that Trump was gonna be more on their side than he had been. It has not worked out how they planned. And I wanna play two select choice clips for you. Let's listen to I believe this is John Potter. It's on yesterday's commentary podcast.

[John Potter]

I honestly don't know if it could be worse because if this war ends the way I fear it's going to, America is going to be in a strategically, tactically and militarily worse position than it was under Biden. And before Trump came back into power, that is to say, he made a choice to test America's resolve, America's ability to win war, to exert its will to change the nature of the map. And he has choked, he has chickened out, he has bled himself dry. And better that we shouldn't have done it in the first place.

[Crystal Ball]

True. Better that we shouldn't have done it

[Tim Miller]

in the first place.

[Crystal Ball]

How about that?

[Tim Miller]

I do like how he, like how he just says plainly that at the point at the beginning was we are going to exercise our will on the Middle east and change the map. And it's like, have you people been awake for the last quarter century? Honestly, this is where people are like, Tim, you've seen. I mean, it really is mind blowing, flip flopped. I was like, yeah, because I lived through the fucking Iraq War, okay? Because I'm a human on earth, right?

[Crystal Ball]

I'm capable of learning, right? I'm capable of absorbing new information and changing my mind. I mean, it really was crazy. And it was because to go back to the beginning of this whole thing, it was almost insulting how little effort was put into the propaganda effort. It was just like every day we're getting some different rationale for why we're going to war. It's regime change. It's not regime change. It's about the nukes. It's about the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, they didn't even go through the high minded effort that we were put through in advance of the Iraq war. So it really was insulting, which is part of why it was so unpopular from the beginning, which normally, look, unfortunately, Americans love a good war, love to see that, you know, our men and women go and drop bombs and go, usa. This one. There was basically none of that from the beginning. People were like, what is wrong with you? Why did you think that this would go well? And so there is a kind of, you know, look, I don't want to laugh. I do want to laugh a lot and I want to enjoy it and I am enjoying it. But I will also say it's entirely possible that the John Podoritz and the Bari Weiss and the Benjamin Netanyahu and the Bezalel Smotriches of the world end up getting their way. Lebanon is really central to this level of understanding.

[Tim Miller]

Mike Pence was on CNN last night trying to take for Trump to get back in.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, absolutely. And so look, it's entirely possible that they end up getting their way and that over the next 60 days when these negotiations are going on, they go back to bombing in Lebanon, Iran responds, and we're back off to the races again. So there's not a mission accomplished for us either. But, you know, either, either way, let's say that happens. Let's say they go back to war already because this has been so much more difficult, so much more costly, so much more impossible than what the Israelis were trying to sell to Trump and what Trump ultimately, you know, bought into and believed. It's very difficult to see how there is a positive outcome from their worldview and perspective. You know, Israel's goal was to become the sole regional hegemon. And now if anything approximating this deal comes together, no, there is going to be another power in the region that has the ability and has proven themselves willing to check Israel in all of their, you know, insane greater Israel ambitions. So they're going to have to completely change their approach. They have burnt some credibility with Trump, obviously. They've burnt Tons of goodwill with, you know, the Democratic Party's in completely different place, most of the country is in a completely different place and so forth. It's not existential for Israel, but it is for the way that they have been conceiving their own security priorities in the region, which is that they can brook no even theoretical threat from anyone around them.

[Tim Miller]

I have one more tears video to get to, but on this point, just while you're mentioning it, I have seen, I think, some legitimate criticism of the anti Israel left from some in kind of the more liberal Jewish sphere. Their point and their kind of knocking out a strawman, but I think a real one is essentially that there were a lot on the populist left, however you want to describe it, who are talking about how Israel controls us and Israel got us into this war because they're in the White House and there's this cabal of Bibi and Israel and Mossad and they have blackmail and there's Jews out there in the world and that's why we're in this war. And it turns out that's not really what happened. Israel is not as all powerful as some made them out to be and that there were some, you know, conspiracy theorizing that has, that has not borne out. How would you kind of react to that?

[Crystal Ball]

Let me say a few things about that. First of all, in terms of the left, I just don't agree that there was any like, oh, the Jews are controlling. No, I think is very specific criticism on Israel. I think, you know, the people, you know, that I would consider truly on the left have been very careful about making that distinct, distinguishing between this state of Israel and the influence peddling that they do in Washington. And the Jewish people who, you know, most American Jews do not support the current status quo with Israel, it's actually the like Christian Zionists who are much stronger and more solid block in favor of, you know, endless support for Israel and Netanyahu and whatever they want to do. So I would just draw that distinction in particular. But in a sense I do agree with you. I think there was far too much of like, oh, Trump got dragged into this. I always objected to the idea that there hasn't been a longstanding empire interest in supporting Israel that or that Trump isn't his own man and isn't making his own decisions. Now, as you put it earlier, does the, you know, pro Israel, both Americans and the actual Israelis, were they very much in favor of this war? Were they the strongest contingent pushing for this war? Absolutely. And we have statements From Marco Rubio, for example, saying basically like, oh, well, they threatened they were going to bomb and we felt like we had to get into the war. So their influence was important here. But at the end of the day, we are the superpower. Trump is making the decisions, he is driving the train and he is responsible. The last thing I would say, though, just in terms of, oh, this proves that the, you know, the Israel lobby stuff was fake and they have no impact. I certainly was never arguing that that means that no American president will ever break with Israel, because we know that's not true. Obama did it, you know, the jcpoa.

[Tim Miller]

I mean, Reagan did it on certain things.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, Reagan said it. Actually, Republicans have been more likely to in the past. George H.W. bush. Reagan did. So we know that American presidents can break with Israel. That doesn't mean that there isn't tremendous pressure, that there isn't tremendous influence, and that that is an important part of the American political story.

[Tim Miller]

I want to play the second clip mostly because it was very revealing of kind of the mindset of a lot of Trump supporters and because most of them want to stay in his good graces. Still. They don't go so far as to say this directly. So I guess in some ways a slightly backhanded kudos to Eli Lake and John Potteritz for just saying this direct. I want to play for you a clip where they talk about how Trump's corruption was part of the reason why we got into such a shitty situation here in the Middle East. Let's listen.

[John Potter]

Wait a second. The reason why we are, you know, we lost this war and we have such a strategic setback after it looked like we were so close to changing the Middle east is because of corruption, which is going to be, I mean, I would imagine that's the theme of 2027. I mean, that's what's going to happen. So they're, I mean, look. Yeah, I mean, that's because it's true. Yeah, it's true. Why does Trump say we? I love gutter. Because they're giving him a plane. Yeah, because they're bribing his sons. Because they're bribing his friends. Sons. We know this, we all know this. Everybody knows it. And when that wasn't having an effect on larger scale policy, by which I mean geopolitical. The choices that Trump was making geopolitically, not that you could overlook it, cuz you shouldn't overlook corruption, but it was like they were bribing him and he was doing whatever it was that he wanted to do anyway.

[Tim Miller]

It's like Trump was gonna getting bribed. You know it, we know it, everybody knows that Trump was getting bribed. But as long as he was also doing what Israel wanted, it was kind of like, well, whatever, we'll just kind of look the other way on this for two seconds. But now that he's not anymore, we can all just say it bluntly that Trump is corrupt. It's like, well, no shit. Welcome aboard. Water's warm.

[Crystal Ball]

I love that. Well, I love him trying to be like, well, previously when he was doing what Israel wanted, that had nothing to do with Miriam ADELSON Giving him $100 million, his campaign pain, that was just organically what he wanted out of the goodness of his heart. But now it's all being driven by the corruption. It's like, okay, sure, yeah, we really, really gotta buy that one. But yeah, I mean, there is, it's going to be very interesting to see how the next 60 days unfold because I think this thing is, I think it's very tenuous. You know, I think it's probably more likely than not that this, you know, it's very difficult to get through these negotiations. The Netanyahu, you know, not just the state of Israel, but Netanyahu specifically, is in deep political trouble. I think he is likely to lose his election, probably based on what a disaster this is. The quote, unquote, moderates in Israel are attacking him from the more hawkish side, saying we should have done more in Iran and you shouldn't be bending to the U.S. blah, blah, blah. So, you know, I think there's, there's very little that's off the table in terms of what he personally would do to resurrect and preserve his own political career. So it continues to be a very dangerous moment.

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[Tim Miller]

I want to end with democratic talk, but just one more thing. I feel like one thing that resonates with people about independent media and that I appreciate about you guys is that you guys are actually mad about A lot of stuff. Genuinely mad. It's not a game, it's not performance. We're not doing who's up, who's down. And I think that a lot of people.

[Crystal Ball]

And now we're in the green room and we're all just buddies.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, no, it's like, it's one thing, it's a connection I do have. Even when we disagree on stuff, it's just like. No, actually, when I saw Mercedes slap in the green room, I told her to eat my ass. You know what I mean? And Kellyanne, right, Like, this is not like, they're not my buddies. I moved. I'm. You're in Virginia. I moved to Louisiana. Like, we're not part of the game. And so I'm just wondering, like, the biggest picture, like, you have to cover the stuff every day and like, be in the weeds. I feel this, like, looking, you know, from, you know, the 30,000 foot level at the last year and a half. I'm just kind of wondering, like, what has made you the maddest that the administration has done?

[Crystal Ball]

Oh, that's a big, big question. I mean, I have to, I have to think that certainly the, the war has to be towards the top just because you're, you're playing with people's lives, you know, I mean, you're playing with the entire globe. You're playing with people's economic lives. And to me, it's, it's psychopathic and it's, it's horrible. I am actually optimistic that the fallout from this, you know, this is not to diminish any of the, the dire consequences. But, you know, I think it is a, a better situation for Iran to be able to check in Israel, and Israel have to actually live, you know, the way that other nations live and try to get along with their neighbors and not just, you know, trying to take over territory constantly and know that they're always going to have our support. I mean, we probably will continue to support them through Trump administration, but, you know, I think that reckoning is important. There's a huge shift to renewable energy that is happening because countries are realizing

[Tim Miller]

like, hey, we're keeping it in the ground.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah. Maybe relying on this precarious geopolitical, you know, situation here with the Strait of Hormuz wasn't the greatest idea. So the number of solar panels that are being shipped from China right now is off the charts. EVs, same thing. So, look, the U.S. is not going to be the world's hegemon. The U.S. i think already is not the world's hegemon. There is going to be an adjustment. It could have been done in a way that was much less horrifying and brutal and deadly and terrible and shocking and all of those sorts of things. But I think this pushes us further along the path to grappling with that reality. At least that's my optimistic hope.

[Tim Miller]

Look at you. Well, this is a difference between the Bulwark podcast and Breaking Points. I try not to do optimistic hope as much as possible.

[John Potter]

Let's talk.

[Crystal Ball]

At your core, you have to be optimistic, otherwise you can't cover politics. Because if it's just nihilism and nothing's ever going to change, then there are lots of people.

[Tim Miller]

No, I'm not nihilist. I'm earnest. Yeah, I'm earnestly pessimistic. I guess I would say, I don't know, I have short term pessimism. I think that the next two and a half years it's going to be worse than people think. And then I have medium term optimism. I do think it's recoverable.

[Crystal Ball]

Same.

[Tim Miller]

I think sometimes you hear from people who are like, it's over, the democracy's over, the country's over. I don't feel like that.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, same.

[Tim Miller]

And I kind of have long term pessimism again. I'm pretty worried about AI and I'm kind of pretty worried about the trajectory. I sometimes wonder if this is like typical old man thing where you look at the youth and their technology and you say, I think the things are worse than it was when I was a kid. I don't know. I do think things are worse.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, no, I mean, I'm pretty much the same. The AI stuff is deeply concerning to me. And on the point about is it an old man thing and the word just can't keep up with the kids tech, it's the, it's young people. I mean, by the polling and also by the response at these commencement ceremonies, they're the ones who are most concerned about the tech because they have the most exposure to it, both in terms of they're using it the most, so they understand it the most, but also when they're graduating and they're seeing I'm putting in resumes to, you know, a hundred different companies not getting a single callback. They're on the front lines of the economic fallout as well. So it makes sense that they would be the, you know, the biggest opponents. And that's very different from any other technology that at least I'm familiar with in the modern age.

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[Tim Miller]

Okay, on the Dem stuff, here's my biggest critique. I think of the kind of populist left Dems. I'm interested how you would react to it. And that is that there's like this theory of the case that the Democrats have not succeeded because they have been too much in the grips of the corporate elite and whatever the bipartisan neocon, neoliberal global establishment like. Is that a pretty decent summary and that like the thing to change is to be more anti corporate and more anti war machine? Is that a fair summary of kind of like the populist left critique of where the Democratic Party.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, I think that's fair.

[Tim Miller]

I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. I think that it would probably be smart for the Democrats to be more populist on economics and regain the mantle of being more skeptical of American adventurism overseas. I think that probably would help to politically. It isn't ever paired with any moderation on any other issues where the Democrats are out of step with voters, though. And I just, I've had a lot of them on. I had Sam Forstag on yesterday. He's a good guy. But I've I would like to have Graham on. I listen to him a lot. I've had Zoran on. It's like all of the Democrats, no matter what wing of the party they're from, on cultural issues, like sound like Kamala Harris, like sound like Kamala Harris or even left of her even like on issues whether it be crime, immigration, gender roles, like all that stuff, abortion. On all of those issues, all Democrats are still in lockstep. And I think that there's a huge part of the country that is like just doesn't agree with the Democrats on any of that. And I don't know that you can gain ground by just saying, hey, I'm anti billionaire, but I'm also, I have the same social and cultural policies as Clinton, Biden and Harris. What do you make of that critique?

[Crystal Ball]

So I think there's some things that are worth grappling with there. And I think it has some legitimacy that critique a few things that I would point out. I mean, first of all, Graham Platner does buck the liberal line on guns and I think he's a good case study because you're right. Other than that, no, he is out there defending trans people. He is very pro immigrant. He's been very outspoken about that. Wants to abolish ice, all of those sorts of things.

[Tim Miller]

Hates cops. We've read his Reddit post. Hates cops.

[Crystal Ball]

There at least did. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know what his latest views are on cops and criminal justice reform, whatever. But yeah, he has leftist positions on most things and there is even a contingent of left less leftist who agrees with him on the gun piece, by the way. But that's another story. For another, the socialist gun owners thing is a real thing. But in any case, a poll just came out that shows him winning, beating Susan Collins, who is the quote unquote moderate, although I don't think either you or I would call her a moderate, beating her handily among independents. Why is that? And Bernie? Same thing. Bernie never gave an inch on, you know, any of the, the cultural left wing issues. And yet he continues to be one of the most popular politicians in America and especially in his 2016 run, won over a lot of independence. The reason, I think, is not because that magically makes everybody agree with you on issues that don't poll as well as things like taxing the billionaires. It's that people are willing to give you grace on some areas if they feel like, okay, but your real primary focus is like sticking it to these rich oligarchs and being concerned with my material interests first and foremost. So I think that there is more room for left wing cultural views, which in my opinion are the correct and moral and just ones when you have such a track record of putting first things first. Now, my Tim personal view of the party is that we've had the litmus tests in all the wrong areas. So every party's gonna have litmus tests. Otherwise you're just like a random collection of people. Right? Our litmus tests have tended to be on those social, cultural issues. And anything goes when it comes to selling out to big corporations. I think it should be exactly the inverse. I do think we should have room for some different views on cultural issues. If you are, you know, if you have credibility and are truly there on the fighting, the oligarchy piece. And you know, I lump like the APAC money, the big Pharma, all that stuff into that, like that is your orientation, then I think there should be some, some room to maneuver on cultural issues. But to me, that's the polar opposite of what the Democratic Party has been in recent years.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, I like that aspiration. We're not seeing any of it yet. I hear what you're saying about the independent voters, but when you look at ACT and polls. But if you look at actual election results, this is the other thing that I get frustrated on. A lot of times. The big lefties in the online fighting are always like, we've tried it your way and we've lost. Like Kamala lost, Hillary lost. And it's like, well, but I guess, but like Biden won, Slotkin won, Ruben Gallego won. Like there aren't really any examples of like leftist candidates winning in non blue states. And so I'm down to clown on trying it. Like maybe I'm open to the idea that maybe you're right, but there's like this hubris and like the intra coalition fighting that's like, we're obviously right. We tried your way and you lost. It's like, well, not exactly. I mean that, I mean, Josh Shapiro won in Pennsylvania. We hadn't had an example of like a Bernie type person winning anywhere. Richard Ojeda ran in West Virginia and got killed. Joe Manchin won, you know.

[Crystal Ball]

Well, Richard Ojeda outrun outran his district. It is. Well, you can go with Ojeda. It is a.

[Tim Miller]

You know, we've American, we've Appalachianized it.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah, he's Appalachianized it. But I mean, he did outrun his like the, our lean in his district by more than candidate in the entire

[Tim Miller]

country, to be fair. And so did Dan Osborne, to be fair.

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah. And Osborne is a very interesting model. Right. And I think Osborne has a real shot this time around, even more so than he did last time. But I guess my, my view is not as much grounded in like it's the electorally superior way to go because I think it's different. I think there are a lot of different factors, including, you know, Graham's going to have $300 million of attack ads dropped on his head. He's given them some things to work with. Abdul Al Sayed, you know, has a name that, given the Islamophobia in the country maybe a problem for him. Like there's, there's a lot of things that go into this. My argument isn't so much an electoral horse race argument. It's that if we want to stop the fascist Slide of the country. We have to do something different. And it's existential. I do think it's existential. So if we, you know, continue doing the thing that Democrats have been doing, which is this kind of palliative care managed decline where we'll be a little bit less bad than the other side, we're going to get more fascists in office this. And I don't want that. And I don't think that you want that either. So that's more of my focus than, you know, from the, the horse race perspective. Though I do think that there are a lot of left populist candidates who can win and will win this time around. I'm more focused on what we need to deliver in order to get ourselves out of this cycle. And we've done it in the past. You know, I mean, if you look to fdr, right, part of the New Deal coalition was in, in one sense it was a sort of moderation of like, okay, well we don't want the communists, so let's do something that is, you know, more in the democratic socialist line of thinking. But also we, you know, we had a genuine fascist movement in this country that also needed to be stopped. And the thing that stopped it was not a sort of, you know, milquetoast neoliberalism. It was a muscular social democratic vision that delivered huge majorities for the Democratic party for years. So I think we can look to our own history to see what will succeed. Need to actually stop the fascist slide that we're currently experiencing.

[Tim Miller]

I, I like the palette of Caroline because there's, there's some truth to that. That is a, you know, and I fight that against it myself because like my natural tendency is to incrementalism. And so I, because I just, that that's like part of my old small c. Conservative like disposition. Like not like conservative in the Republican Party sense, but in the just like, like changing things really fast is risky and you don't know what the downside effects are kind of. And I do have that disposition where I'm like, I look in America, there are a lot of really bad things happening. I mean, obviously this administration in particular, but the day to day lives of people are really challenging, particularly poor people. We should try to make their lives better. On the other side, we could be at Russia or Iran or Hungary, you know what I mean? There's a lot, it could get a lot worse. And so you gotta guard against all that stuff. But I hear you on that, that that isn't inspiring to people and that's not how you bring new people into a. Into a coalition.

[Crystal Ball]

Not only that, but I think, you know, we're both old enough to realize that as much as you try to hold on to a status quo, change is the only thing that's certain in life and in the life of nations as well. And I know you share a lot of the concerns about AI. I think AI is a tremendously powerful technology. Even if it's not, then we're talking about a massive bubble and a collapse that is going to lead to huge change. So change is coming whether we like it or not.

[Tim Miller]

That's true.

[Crystal Ball]

And so it's a matter of how are we going to make sure that that change delivers for ordinary people, make sure that we are sort of reestablishing our country in a way that is strong and where democracy is a real word that has meaning and not just a buzzword. I think that's, you know, when you find yourself sliding into those tendencies, just remember that between the climate crisis and AI and the way the world is being reshaped before our eyes, change is coming no matter what.

[Tim Miller]

One more on the cultural center move.

[Crystal Ball]

Sure.

[Tim Miller]

This is always, like, sensitive ground to tread, because I think that there's been a lot of really great parts about the awokening, and I think that we had a lot of great cultural steps. And with my daughter in particular, I see it day to day and having characters in books that represent her in ways that she wouldn't have had 20 years ago. There are a lot of positives. There was some overreach as we look ahead to the Democrats and how to win in 2028. I do think it's important to reckon with other things that went wrong in 2024. Besides, Kamala was too corporate or whatever, and I think she had a lot of California baggage. And I see this story come across yesterday, and it just gives me hives when I think about Gavin Newsom in 2028. And the story is this. California had a $633 million project for public utilities that was going to give contracts to LGBT owned firms. And to qualify, you must go through the certification program to prove that you're lgbt. And it's like, okay, well, granted, Donald Trump is giving away billions upon billions to his friends, and fuck Donald Trump. But it's like, do we really want to run in 2028 on, like, you get special programs if you're gay, and, like, you have to go through a certification program to, like, prove that you signed up. It's just like, really?

[Crystal Ball]

I Like the concept of a government issued gay card. I do like that aspect of it. But I mean, but what you're pointing to here is because Gavin Newsom gives me hives just in general because he is that status quo Democrat and he does a very good job of like rhetorically fighting against Trump. And so I think he's gotten some credibility with the Democratic base, but he is a very standard issue Democrat. And the truth of the matter is those sorts of like, you know, diversity programs and the word policing that didn't come from the left in the modern political context. That was an attempt to stop Bernie Sanders by Hillary Clinton by saying, oh no, I'm the real lefty, because, you know, just breaking up the banks, well, that's not going to solve racism. That is much more of a sort of traditional liberal orientation. And I have the same problem with it that you do. I mean, I am a universalist, right. I think that the most effective programs that have lifted all boats and made the country a better and more equal place are the ones that have taken a universal lens. Now, that is not to say that, that there aren't specific discriminatory harms that need to be addressed individually, but in general, that is very much my, my orientation. And I, you know, was someone that, during the great awokening, I was critical of it at the time. The word policing, the, you know, sometimes people do need are racist and shitty. Yeah, we get, quote, we work in a certain place, you know, that's fine. But you know, the, like, all the cancellation campaigns, it was over the top.

[Tim Miller]

And I'm down to call people out. The right wing is snowflakes. A lot of times they're like, oh, I can't say this word. It's like, no, you can say what word you want. We're just gonna also call you racist.

[Crystal Ball]

Just know that there are going to be social consequences for that. Like you, you can say it. There's just also people are gonna know that you suck as a human being now after you said it. And you can't cry about that. But yeah, with Kamala, you know, I don't wanna, I don't wanna ignore the fact that I think as a black woman, there's an assumption that you get just labeled as like, oh, you must be a lefty. Even though Kamala Harris was not a lefty in my view in any regard, but she had also dabbled in a lot of the awokening language that was not helpful to her at that point.

[Tim Miller]

I think that most people just want to get government services and have the best person get the contract. I have a buddy that is 1 16th Native American that was getting Native American contracts with the federal government. And it's like, okay, there's some good intentions involved with all that. And there's going to be fraud in any system. And so it's like, sometimes the Republicans are going to blow stuff out of proportion. And I do want to be conscious of that. But on the other hand, you know, we've all seen it with our eyes, like examples of excess on this stuff. And I think that it's important to bring it up because I've noticed and we saw this around Biden and the age thing. Another thing I noticed is that, like, Democrats, it's interesting. Not on Twitter, but everywhere else, if you're in a meeting with Democrats, temperamentally Democrats are nice. Like Republicans in me, I've been in Republican meetings where, like, people were calling each other, like, nasty ass words back in the day when I was a Republican.

[Crystal Ball]

Good.

[Tim Miller]

And in Democratic meetings, even when people disagree, like, they're nice. It's just like it's a temperamentally nicer bunch. And every once in a while there's some value to being in the meeting and being like, you know, do we need to give 600 million to the gays and get a gay card? Can't we. Can't we do some other nice things? You know, like, can we just make sure that, like, everybody has an equal chance to get the contract? Like, that would be okay, too, anyway. I just think that would be a healthy progression for the coalition. All right. Anything else? You have any bones to pick with me? You want to get me back on anything?

[Crystal Ball]

I think we picked them. I was mostly. I wanted to get after the gift to the mullahs.

[Tim Miller]

The gift to the mullahs. I stand by it. And that's good, Crystal, because there'd be a problem if we came away at the end of this podcast in total agreement. We would both have to do some reflecting on that, I think. I think it would call into question.

[Crystal Ball]

But I do appreciate your journey, though, and I want to continue to encourage you on that journey.

[Tim Miller]

Tim, thank you. I appreciate you. Crystal Ball, it's breaking points. She's also got a show with her fellow radical leftist husband, Crystal Kyle and friends, and we'll be doing it again soon. Everybody else will be back here tomorrow with another Trumper. Okay. We have to bring back just a good old fashioned never Trumper as kind of a cleansing, a palate cleanser after having Crystal Ball on. No, just joking, baby. We'll see you soon. Everybody else will see you back here tomorrow. The Borg Podcast is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Lucy Boots and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

[Ryan Seacrest]

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