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- [00:00]
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Foreign.
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Welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller. Delighted to welcome back to the show veteran political strategist. His campaigns include McCain, Romney, Schwarzenegger and Jeb. He's the co host of Hacks on Tap, co director of the center for the Political Future at usc. He also runs the American EV Jobs Alliance. We're in California, so I'm bringing in Mike Murphy. What's up, Murphy?
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Hey, good to be here, Tim.
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At last night's live show, we brought out a bunch of, you know, lib content creators and commentators. Your Jon Favreau's, your Jane Costons, your Van Lathans, your Brian Tyler Cohen.
- [00:41]
A
It's like a swarm here in la. You can't avoid them.
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B
They're everywhere, honestly, you know, people need kind of like some raid to keep them away. But I subjected them to a never Trumper trivia which had like deep cuts, questions about Mitt Romney, who did Dick Cheney shoot, you know, all that kind of material, you would have dominated. They were, it was an embarrassing performance by them last night.
- [01:05]
A
Yeah, we need to start up a school to properly educate the youngins here.
- [01:09]
B
We do, we do. All right. We've got much to get to. I want to. Part of the reason I wanted to have you were here in California. There's a lot of California politics, so we'll get to that. But first I, we have some good news. So I'd like to start with some good news, modest good news, you know, but we take it where we can get it. We're seeing some Republican Hill pushback over the front and over a couple of different things. And the reconciliation bill has been derailed. Everybody from, you know, the retiring Thom Tillis over to Tommy Tuberville people, they aren't thrilled. Todd Blanche went over to the Senate to try to win people over, to try to bribe them, saying, hey, even some of you senators might be able to get some money from this fund. And it doesn't seem like it's taking and that's, that's meaningful, I think. What about you?
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No, I agree. I mean, it's kind of an interesting mixture. On one hand, this, this bill, hey, let's have a copper salt payola fund is so odious and horrible that even the Gumby like flexibility of the modern Republican elected federal official is like more bending than even they can do. But Trump's also got what I call the Rotary revolt going on, which is the Senate is a combination of Rotary club and nursing home. And they're, they're, you know, they're they're their own thing. And they like Corny. And what they liked even more was having some hope they can hang on to majority, which by rights and by the nature of the states that are up this year, they should be able to. But this Democratic kill Trump wave, which is now a national Democrats and independents and even some Republicans punish Trump wave, is threatening the Senate. And so the one they felt pretty good about, Texas, Trump, pops up and endorses the biggest loser in the history of Republican Party, this corrupt Paxton guy, killing their friend Cornyn. So there, there's just good old institutional slash personal rage going, and they're looking for ways to punish him in this odious Paola thing. And the blimp hanger, too, that's wobbling. And then he's got the revenge caucus, which are people he screwed with who lost primaries or could have lost primaries. You know, obviously Cassidy in Louisiana, you got Tillis, and then you've got Susan Collins, who's trying to figure out the tango to survive. So all of a sudden his grip in the Senate is a lot weaker and they're acting up, God bless them. A little late, but. But I'll take it.
- [03:45]
B
Yeah, you know, it's like a nursing room cafeteria vibe. You know, I always say life is all high school cafeteria, and nursing room cafeteria is not that different from high school cafeteria. So I understood from my Mimi. And that's what you got happening here. Like they're annoyed.
- [04:00]
A
Yep. You know, he shot Blinky.
- [04:02]
B
You know, we're pissed you can't sit with us. There is a little bit of that right now post Cornyn. And I do think it's funny, like, the retribution campaign is we don't overstate all this, but, like, it is backfiring somewhat. Right. Like, Trump's, like, they were all bragging his staff, talking about, don't mess with Trump. You know, he's the greatest political winner ever. And yeah, it's true, Bill Cassidy lost and they managed to squeak out at, you know, not overwhelming victory against Thomas Massie. Yeah, he got 45% in Kentucky. And so it's. Yeah, that was true. And Cornyn, you know, they pulled the rug out from under him. But like, to what end?
- [04:42]
A
Well, yeah, there's also, you know, there's. There's been kind of a courage. Ray has hit him because filing deadlines are passing quickly.
- [04:50]
B
Right.
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A
So, like, you take. And he's one of my favorites. And I'm a donor. Brian Patrick in the Philly suburbs who's a great member of Congress. He.
- [04:58]
B
I Don't know about. Great. But okay, we can, we can agree to this.
- [05:02]
A
We're going to grade that out. A passable member of Congress due to the current realities. I hear you. But anyway, so Fitzpatrick, you know, Pennsylvania primary is over, so they have more maneuvering room to go screw with Trump. So the sands are shifting. And the other thing is, you asked
- [05:21]
B
on that one, on Fitzpatrick, worth noting, Trump went after his wife, who's a Fox News reporter the other day and was doing his sexist, you know, I'm just going to really shit talk the woman reporter and the gaggle thing and so, you know, to the nursing room cafeteria thing. I mean, he's younger, but there is like a little bit of that. Like he's, he's not like he's mismanaging people that he needs with these zero majorities.
- [05:42]
A
Right. And if you, in an election year, you ask the senators, what's the President's job, it's to help us get reelected and hold the majority. And Trump is doing the opposite. I mean, this corny thing really was, you know, nutty old man shoots and basically gives the Democrats a good shot at what could be the tipping point race for control of the Senate. And they're just flabbergasted and infuriated by that. But, you know, you get into business with a crazy guy. The other thing about Trump, you know, I was reading today on the Wal wire somewhere that this how you can tell I'm a Jurassic consultant. Better check the wire. You know, but I was looking at the wire there. You got the wire, I got the ticker here. It's funny because I'm a nerd. I built my first computer with a soldering iron with a kit Bill Gates sold me. So. But anyway, not to go askew on that. The, there's all this Trump about, all this talk about Trump's birthday. You know, he's going to turn 80. He's already 80. The birthday is the last day of that year. You know, like you're a one year old means you're, you've been one for a year. He's been 80 for a year. We're going into 81 now, the beginning of 81. And the crazy old man stuff is really out there and becoming a thing.
- [06:59]
B
The last element to this kind of, this, you know, sort of swirling number of incentives that are starting to move away from him, you know, in addition to his own behavior in the cafeteria vibes and in addition to the filing deadlines passing, is the approval rating. Sarah has coined the Bush line I hate it, cuz it's a little gross and it's mean to the Bushes. But okay, whatever it is, what it is, Trump bush left at 32%. And it's one of those things, like eventually you hit a line where the number starts to get so low that the incentives for these Republicans start to change a little bit. Like it's not going to happen overnight. But where they also have gone from this thing where it's like, I can't buck him. I can't buck him because it's too, you know, the base is with him too much all of a sudden. You know, if you look at him at 34, you look at Massie only getting 55 against him, you start to think it's a, it goes from like, oh, I'm running against, you know, Bashar Assad to I can maybe get some distance from this and not worried that I'm going to get taken out back.
- [08:03]
A
Yeah, no, no, you start calculating, you know, the staff comes in, hey, boss, you know, we're, we're in reelection here and next week Trump's gonna be down at the Omnidome, you know, doing a cage fighting, tractor pole thing dedicated to, you know, him, you know, and the senators will go from, well, you gotta get me there when he arrives. I want the picture now. It's like, I think I'm gonna have a dental emergency that night. Maybe go hit a suburban PTA unannounced and show up in care.
- [08:32]
B
Or kind of like how Trump said about his own son's wedding yesterday at a president he's asked if he's going to be attending Don Jr. S second wedding. He's like, ooh, you know, we got this thing in Iran going on and I don't know, I haven't pressed my suit.