Ben Shapiro's Tears Aren't Enough. The Iran War Hawks Owe Us More.

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Ben Shapiro's Tears Aren't Enough. The Iran War Hawks Owe Us More.

The Bulwark | June 17, 2026
Panel: JVL, Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller

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Overview

This episode dives into the fallout of the Trump administration’s “historic” Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU), the strategic blunders involved, and the complicated dynamic between Trump, Israel, and his own Republican allies. The hosts dissect the deal’s real-world implications, Israel’s miscalculated trust in Trump, the hypocrisy of former war hawks now reversing course, and the broader lessons for American foreign policy—and the pro-democracy movement.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Deal” That Isn’t (00:15–06:35)

• Memorandum vs. Actual Deal: The panel opens by lampooning the so-called “deal,” noting it’s only a memorandum of understanding, not a binding agreement.
  • JVL: “It has been docusigned and it'll be formally signed maybe on Friday... and everything else after that will be negotiated later. But don't worry, don't worry. It's great.” (00:17)
• Substance (or Lack Thereof): Both Israeli and American parties have not fully endorsed or even seen the document.
• Leaked Provisions:
  • Tim Miller highlights leaked details: Iran immediately gets to sell oil sans sanctions and the U.S. commits to a $300 billion economic development plan for Iran.
  • Sarah Longwell: “If that truly is it, the extent to which this is a disaster for Donald Trump and the United States and a boon for Iran cannot be overstated.” (06:35)

2. The Israel Question & Political Fallout (02:28–04:46, 20:43–25:22)

• Israel’s Calculus: The panel details how Israel initially wanted Trump drawn into war on their behalf, but now feels betrayed as he tries to extricate himself.

  • Sarah Longwell: “He got dragged in by Israel, but now he's going to hang Israel out to dry on the second part of it.” (20:51)
  • Tim Miller: “You thought you were going to be the one person that didn’t get burned by Donald Trump... now America’s and Israel’s interests both lose.” (21:26, also 23:38–25:15)

• Recent Israeli Public Opinion: Support for Trump has plummeted in Israel, with Likud shelving pro-Trump ads.

• Normalization Backwards: The Abraham Accords “shine” is gone, regional alliances are shaken, and neighboring states must “get right” with Iran.

  • Tim Miller: “Is there anything that has had the shine come off of it faster than the Abraham Accords?” (27:22)

3. Republicans in Disarray (08:12–14:48)

• Who’s Selling the Deal?

  • Marco Rubio is notably absent from deal promotion, leaving JD Vance, despite opposition from other GOP hawks.
  • Sarah Longwell: “Who do you send out to humiliate yourself in front of people? Not Marco Rubio…” (07:39)
  • Tim Miller speculates on whether Vance’s public defense is penance for his prior anti-war stance or personal ambition.

• GOP Voter Breakdown:

  • Tim Miller: “...the class who read books and care about geopolitics is 8%. I think JD is appealing to the other 92.” (12:05–13:27)
  • Contrasts between “geopolitical grown-ups” (Rubio) and “silly little boy” (Vance) politics.

4. Trump’s Transactionalism & Future U.S. Policy? (15:37–19:41)

• America Flipping Sides?
  • JVL raises whether transactional “America First” logic could mean the U.S. essentially backs Iran if it aligns with Trump’s business aims.
    • Sarah Longwell affirms the risk, especially with Jared Kushner’s business ties highlighted.
    • JVL: “From Trump's point of view, why not just switch sides here? Is that crazy?” (16:04)
    • Sarah Longwell: “You could see him mostly just trying to do deals, always wanting to be in a deal situation with them.” (17:16)
• Kushner’s Influence: Sarah notes Kushner’s quiet yet central role, despite lacking a formal security status, calling it the real story behind the negotiations. (18:19)

5. The War: a Predictable Disaster (25:19–30:28)

• Israel’s Gamble Backfires: The panel maintains Israel believed they could “dog walk” the U.S. into defeating Iran, not realizing Trump would leave them stranded.
  • JVL: “Once the strait was closed and it was clear the U.S. Military couldn't open it…this is the ending we’re having now.” (25:47)
• Everyone Knew Except the War Hawks: The hosts vent at pro-Israel hawks and pundits now “crying about it.”
  • Sarah Longwell: “Why should anybody listen to you if you are like, oh, I've just discovered Trump's a clown. Get out of here with that.” (28:56)
• No Strategy, Just Chaos:
  • Tim Miller: “The plan was basically step one: bomb Iran. Step two: question mark, question mark, question mark. Step three: the Iranian people are free. What?” (29:58)
  • JVL: “You just did this in Iraq...it took 20 years.” (30:16)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On JD Vance Carrying Trump’s Water:
  • Tim Miller (11:09): “He’s gonna look like a silly little boy, you know, out there playing silly little games.”
• The 8% Who Care:
  • JVL (12:05): “What percentage would that class you were just describing represent? People who read books.”
  • Tim Miller (12:22): “8. Okay, 8%...JD is kind of thrown in his lots with the 92.”
• On Trump’s Unreliability:
  • Sarah Longwell (28:56): “Why should anybody listen to you if you are like, oh, I've just discovered Trump's a clown. Get out of here with that.”
• On the Absurdity of the War “Plan”:
  • Tim Miller (29:58): “Step one, bomb Iran. Step two, question mark, question mark, question mark. Step three, the Iranian people are free.”
• Sarah’s Warning to Israel:
  • (21:26) “You thought you were the one person that didn’t get burned by Donald Trump...he did get bullied into it by Bibi without any real plan for himself.”

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:15–06:35: Debating the authenticity and impact of the Iran memorandum
• 06:35–08:12: The $300 billion commitment and strategic folly
• 08:12–14:48: GOP infighting, JD Vance’s role, and Republican voter priorities
• 15:37–19:41: Could the U.S. “flip” sides? Trump’s transactional foreign policy, Kushner’s business role
• 20:43–25:22: Israel’s strategic blunder, how the alliance unraveled, and the lesson for U.S. allies
• 25:19–28:00: Israel’s failed war gamble and the myth of Trump as a reliable partner
• 28:00–30:28: The utter lack of planning, war hawks’ reversals, and retrospective vindication

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Tone and Style

• The conversation is characteristically sharp, irreverent, and unsparing—mixing gallows humor (“Maybe not a mug. Maybe like a sippy cup, shot glass.” (00:05)) with deep policy analysis.
• The panel highlights hypocrisy (“Why should anybody listen to you if you are like, oh, I've just discovered Trump's a clown...”) and skewers both MAGA neocons and mainstream hawks for ignoring the risks of Trump’s foreign policy unpredictability.

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Bottom Line

This episode is a bracing postmortem on the Trump administration’s Iran policy, critiquing the transactional logic at play, the naivety of allies like Israel, and the role reversal of Republican hawks now condemning Trump. The hosts offer a “we-told-you-so” assessment, underscoring the risks of trusting Trump—both for American interests and global stability—and the long-term damage such “deals” can cause for any future president.

Transcript

[Tim Miller]

Are the maga neocons? Are any of them converts? Because I want a drinking Ben Shapiro's tears mug.

[JVL]

I get that they're little tears.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe not a mug. Maybe like a sippy cup, shot glass. Hello, everyone.

[JVL]

This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. We got a big day because the deal, the strongest deal in history, the deal, 47 years in the making, is finally here, sort of. It's not a. Not an actual deal. It's a memorandum of understanding and it has been docusigned and it'll be formally signed maybe on Friday. And then we begin a process of 60 days which could possibly be extended. And there are a bunch of things which they will work out later. But don't worry, don't worry. It's great.

[Tim Miller]

So you're saying JVL was not always right then. Because you said that. You said that there was going to be a deal on Sunday and you were doing a victory lap about how right you were about how the deal came on Sunday of it now.

[JVL]

This is the deal. I said they would do that.

[Tim Miller]

There's not a deal.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is the deal.

[JVL]

Thank you. Thank you, guys. I was as right as I've been about anything since I said that Donald Trump would claim the election was stolen in 2020 and would run for president in 2024. Remember when I said that it was in October of 2020.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I missed it between the Fetterman takes. But. But just kidding.

[JVL]

No, John Fetterman wasn't even a glisten

[Sarah Longwell]

in my eye when you, when you said this on the secret podcast. We're on the secret pod. And you laid this out. And I do think you were deeply right about all the psychology of Trump, that Trump wanted to announce it on his UFC fight, that it was about his birthday. It was about spectacle, every part of that. It was so on the nose. Perfect. My pushback at the time, though, I'm going to stand by this. This is going to, for me, going to be one of these. JBL is right. Sarah's also right, because I was kind of like, okay, counterpoint, Israel gets a vote on this. Right. And it looks like Israel.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe they haven't seen the memorandum yet, so.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right. But I'm not sure Israel is going to go along with this. And May. They just released a new poll showing Israeli support for Donald Trump and the flip that it's made in the last three weeks. They are not happ.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, that's a shame. I know that's really too bad.

[JVL]

Wait, so the Israeli public thought that Trump would never turn on them.

[Tim Miller]

That's interesting.

[Sarah Longwell]

But jbl, here's my question to you, just to test the proposition of how right you are, Is this isn't a deal, though, right. Like my pushback was kind of like. But is it, Would it be a deal?

[JVL]

I said it wouldn't be a deal. I said it'll be a memorandum of understanding that settles nothing and punts everything further down the road. Like that's that what it means to be a deal is that Donald Trump is going to get the fuck out of Dodge. That's what it means. And everything else after that will be negotiated later. And that's what we're getting.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, here's, here's what I think.

[JVL]

I think there's done with Iran be done.

[Sarah Longwell]

One option is Trump gives Iran everything they want. Seems like that seems like a pretty good option. Two is Israel continues to fight with Lebanon, other things happen in the meantime and hostilities reignite is the second option. The third option is they just continue to kick the can down the road and. Right. Those are the three options. I see. Does anyone see a different one?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, well, number two is not happening.

[JVL]

So.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And it's either downtown gives another thing what they want or we earn a muddle, you know, and like, things just sort of tumble forward. But.

[JVL]

Well, no, I think. Well, listen, we can get to the Israel question later because Israel is going to be a real fork in the road. Right. And they are going to have to decide do they cross Trump and lose their last political ally in America or do they just bite down on a stick and do what he demands they do.

[Tim Miller]

Should be interesting. I look forward to talking about that on the, on the deal. We still don't really know. Right. I mean, the reports are, as we're taping this, Israel hasn't seen the deal, so they can't be a party to a deal they haven't seen. And, and the administration doesn't put it out. They're going to probably put it out after it's right. Because they're so confident about, so proud of it. Good. It is.

[JVL]

And it's such a great deal that they want to make sure they hide it for as long as possible, which is famously what people do in these situations.

[Tim Miller]

There is some leaks, though. The Wall Street Journal has a leak that Iran is going to be able to immediately begin selling oil and other related industrial products without sanction on the free market. That's interesting. I was interested to see the story because there's also this leaked doc going around. A fellow at Hudson, Josh Block, has posted this, and it includes some real doozies. The United States undertakes to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, ensuring financing of at least. At least 300 billion. At least. At least 300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan will be formulated within the next 60 days. So that's interesting, but in case you're like, okay, well, maybe this is fake. Maybe this is Iranian disinformation.

[JVL]

JD Vance was asked about the 300 billion number the other day, and he didn't say no.

[Tim Miller]

He didn't say no, but here we go. This is number 10.10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of the memorandum of understanding. Not after the deal. After the MoU. The US Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives in all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation and the like.

[JVL]

Mm.

[Tim Miller]

Again, they're not telling us what's in the deal, so it's hard to discuss it on the merits. What we know is that the leaked document and the Wall Street Journal reporting both indicate that the thing that will happen immediately on Friday is that the blockade will be finished and that Iran will begin to be able to sell their oil on the market. And that seems like a pretty nice deal for the Iranians.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I mean, if the leaked thing. When I read the leaked thing, and this is what some people are reacting to, if that truly is it, the extent to which this is a disaster for Donald Trump and the United States and a boon for Iran cannot be overstated. You know, this is what I was thinking. People say that Donald Trump doesn't celebrate pride, but I think giving 300 billion to the gay son of the Ayatollah Khomeini is. I think that's all Trump celebrating pride.

[Tim Miller]

That's nice. I'd like to trickle down.

[JVL]

He's gay. People are saying, you know something I don't know?

[Tim Miller]

People are saying that the Junior Ayatollah is gay. Yeah. You haven't heard that. That's out there.

[JVL]

Thought he was married and his wife and kids were killed during the bombing.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, Tim, we might have to explain to JVL about them. Be him being married and having kids. This is not the.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Would not be the first homosexual to have a child. To sire a child.

[Sarah Longwell]

Would not be, especially in a place like Iran.

[JVL]

Again, amazing for the deis that Iran got a gay leader before America Yeah, you never know.

[Sarah Longwell]

Also, the other thing that was in there that I found interesting is so, so, so much of what the administration is doing right now is playing semantics with language. So. Right. So you've got. The other telling thing is that they've got JD out there selling this and not Rubio. Right. Like, who do you send out to humiliate yourself in front of people? Not Marco Rubio. Marco Rubio is not touching this. In fact, some of the leaked reporting says that, you know, Rubio, Ratcliffe and Heg, Seth, but who cares? Are all really opposed to this deal, right?

[Tim Miller]

Obviously, yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Because this was cooked up by Witkoff and Jared, who probably at Trump's behest. Who's Trump saying, like, just get us out of here. But one of the tricky things is that JD Vance was on Hannity last night saying, well, not a single American taxpayer dollar. And you're like, right, because you're unfreezing the funds that we have had frozen because there's the largest state sponsor of terror.

[Tim Miller]

Well, I mean, our dollars did also go to the billions that precipitated the agreement. So, you know, we've already spent billions of our dollars. And then you're unfreezing additional dollars for them, which I assume we'll end up having to, you know, use additional of our taxpayer dollars and weapons to challenge, you know, whatever it is that they spend their money on, which is not going to be, you know, economic development for the Iranian people and new. New school. New schools for their children. They're going to be acquiring more weapons that we're gonna have to defend. And this is all part of the same stupid nonsense, Right? It's like we're paying for the weapons that we're using to bomb them with, and the weapons that we're.

[Sarah Longwell]

That we're gonna have to defend against ultimately. One other thing that I thought was a funny piece of linguistical that I'm trying to get with is this idea that the Strait of Hormuz is not going to issue tolls.

[JVL]

Never.

[Sarah Longwell]

Not at all.

[JVL]

Never be any tolls.

[Tim Miller]

Never.

[Sarah Longwell]

No fees, on the other hand, seem to be on the table.

[JVL]

Very different.

[Tim Miller]

It's cequa.

[Sarah Longwell]

Very different.

[Tim Miller]

We're going to have a sequel.

[JVL]

I'm sorry, Sarah, I thought, as a good conservative that you thought that market forces should really be allowed to work and that costs should be attributed as directly as possible to people. Right? This is. This is the tragedy of the commons, Right? And so if everybody's just allowed to go back and forth through the straight, you could use all the straight up. And so you need to have a system of fees to make sure that it's all five by five. Michael.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, as much as I like a good capitalistic structure, that's not what this is. This is something that was free before and under international jurisdiction that the Iranians would now be charging not a toll, but a fee to use because it's theirs.

[Tim Miller]

Now, can I offer a counter, like a slightly counter take on Jade on the JD Humiliation tour?

[JVL]

Yeah, please. I want to know because I was going to ask you guys if he has been forced to do this as penance for opposing the war in the first place.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe. Or maybe he wanted to and raised his hand. He's also on his book tour, which, spoiler alert, me and JVL are going to be having a live reading of JD Vance's new book Communion tomorrow afternoon. So come hang out with us on Wednesday. Make sure to press the alarm bell on the YouTube channel. Bring your cigarettes, it will be nice.

[Sarah Longwell]

Guys, that's going to take you like days.

[Tim Miller]

We're going to do select passages.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, great.

[Tim Miller]

But if people really like it, maybe we'll do, we'll continue through the week. I don't know, we don't know. We'll see how it goes. But he's on his book tour already, so he's already going to have to be defending it. And Marco is doing grown up business at the G7, doing actual diplomacy. So part of this I think is circumstantial. Part of this is JD Wanted to be out there on it and he's going to be the signer. And I think that this is strategic by JD and it looks really dumb. And to people in the small class of those who care about geopolitics, understand geopolitics, read books, you know, to that kind of universe of person, I think Marco is going to look like a grown up here, like he has several times. And JD is going to look like kind of a silly little boy, you know, out there playing silly little games.

[JVL]

Very quickly, Tim, sorry, I gotta ask. In the pie chart of Republican primary voters, what percentage would that class you were just describing represent? People who read books.

[Tim Miller]

People I think I care about geopolitics and care about America's role in the world on world stage.

[JVL]

Just give me ballpark the percentage.

[Tim Miller]

8. Okay, 8%. And so I do think Marco is really solidifying that 8 going forward. And I think that JD is kind of thrown in his lots with the 92. And so my one counteroffer is I think that because in that 8% in the group of people who care about geopolitics, who talk about the news, who read like, those are the people who do political commentary. Right. And so I think that there's going to be, like, an almost unanimous view among people that do political commentary that Marco is really showing himself to be astute here. And I just, I think that that's maybe a little bit of a category error. About What? I think J.D. might be playing a different game, and he is setting himself up for appealing to the hoi polloi and, and by being able to say, you know, guys, sorry, Marco really did want to do these. Do more of the wars, and that was kind of dumb. And he was on their side, and he was also on Ukraine's side. He was also working with Zelensky, Jelensky, and there might be like, a little bit of that happening. I don't. I'm not saying that's going to work necessarily or whatever. And a lot of this will come down to who Trump endorses, but, like, I. I don't know that it's quite as dumb as it might seem on the surface.

[JVL]

Can I ask questions? I am very much open to this idea, but my, My counter argument to that would be that this puts his fingerprints on Iran in ways that make it harder for him to later say, I had nothing to do with that thing.

[Tim Miller]

I'm interested in Sarah's take. I want to make the counter to my own argument in two sentences. Really quick, is Trump is both isolationist and strongman. It was al. It was always like, there was this, and at some times it was hard to kind of square that, like we're seeing right now with Iran. And so, like Marco, the case against this is that Marco seems like strong man that won Venezuela, and Vance seems like weak little boy that lost in Iran. And so maybe, like, that would be, I think, be the Marco caucus kind of like this sort of gut, visceral, 92% of the pie chart level. But I don't know. I don't know. Sarah, what do you think?

[Sarah Longwell]

I think that you're making a persuasive point that what J.D. vance wanted is to say, they got us into this war and I got us out. Like, the idea that he's there on the way out makes to me some strategic sense for him that the risk is that if you want to be the next president like Trump is, and this is not being talked about as much as I think it should be, Donald Trump is setting up future American presidents for disaster with Iran Right. Like, this is. This is.

[Tim Miller]

He has many fronts, by the way.

[Sarah Longwell]

Many fronts. Right. He's made them stronger, he's given them more money. He has given them a sense of American weakness. And the fact that the American people, like, they've been able to basically test the American people's willingness to, you know, deal with higher gas prices in favor of taking on Iran, which of which there's very little appetite. And so I do think it would behoove JD or anybody who has aspirations to be president again to not want this back in their lap. It reminds me of COVID a little bit where Trump, like, you should be able to see that Trump was able to break everything during COVID but Biden ended up getting a lot of the blame for handling of COVID because he inherited it. And whoever comes in next is going to inherit a disaster in Iran.

[JVL]

I got a weird question for you guys, and just stop me if this sounds crazy.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Couldn't we wind up a year from now, basically, on Iran's side? Trump loves dictators. He loves the North Korean dictators. He loves the Venezuelan dictator. He loves the Russian dictator. He loves the Chinese dictator. He loves the dictators in Saudi Arabia. The only dictator he really doesn't like has historically been the mullahs in Iran.

[Tim Miller]

But now they're great. He was saying that tonight.

[JVL]

Today, now they're great. And now it is really in America's interest to, since we no longer have international law governing the strait, it's on. It's in our interest to make nice with them. And, like, honestly, what does Israel do for us? Again, purely from an America first, if you're Trump and transactional, that's what I'm talking about here. From Trump's point of view, I mean, why not just switch sides here? Is that crazy?

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think it's crazy. I mean, it would have.

[Tim Miller]

It's crazy. In a sense.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's crazy.

[Tim Miller]

It's a little crazy.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, it's crazy in the geopolitical sense, but I don't know that I think it's crazy to think that Trump could decide the way that I get this deal and the way that I set us up for the future. Right. Like Witkoff and Jared, for them, they're making business deals in the Middle East. And so if Trump is looking at it from a personal business standpoint, which he most assuredly is, and not the actual interest of America and the west against a stronger Iran, you could see him basically getting mostly trying to do deals, just like always wanting to be In a deal situation with them.

[Tim Miller]

Who do you think gets in on that 300 billion, by the way? That development fund? I assume the conglomerate that Witkoff and Jared are part of, I assume it'll be part of the Board of Peace will be involved. We'll get a taste on that.

[JVL]

Got some beautiful oceanfront real estate.

[Sarah Longwell]

Remember when we were going to split the fee, the tolls with Iran? Like, it looks to me like Trump's. Trump's idea of a deal is not something in America's interest. It's in his business interests.

[Tim Miller]

And maybe we should have seen this from the start, seeing as somebody that is literally doing real estate deals in the Middle East. Was our point man on these negotiations the President's son in law did. You know, I think everybody knows this, but I just want to keep saying it because Michael Weiss revealed this on the daily pod today. There was a briefing yesterday, a reporter briefing, where you say there's administration officials or blah, blah, blah. And our own Sam Stein was able to sleuth that. One of the two speakers was J.D. vance, because I kept using the word cool, which he likes to use. He likes to say cool as a,

[Sarah Longwell]

you know what's cool about President Trump?

[Tim Miller]

Cool.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

You know what's cool about this? We made some new friends in Iran, actually. It's been really cool that we were able to build a relationship with your audience. The other speaker, though, was Jared Kushner. Michael Wise can report. This is the second time I've had a podcast guest tell me this. I believe Laura Rosen was the last one, said she was on a background call, that it was Kushner and Kushner's name is never on anything. And I keep wanting to be like, is it the bigger story that the President's son in law who's doing business deals in the Middle east is the person on this phone call who doesn't have a security clearance? Isn't that actually a bigger story than whatever he's saying? Isn't that the big. Shouldn't one of the people on the call just do a story about that? About how like, you know, it feels like that is the real story here, not whatever bullshit he's spinning. But anyway, yeah, I mean, like Kushner is the point, is the head man for all this. And, and so I don't, I think that like them deciding that maybe it's possible in the future they can be in business with Iran. Is that that much crazier than going to business with Venice in Venezuela? I mean, it's crazy because we Those of us, like, who live in reality know that, like, you can't really trust the mullahs and the irgc and they're murderous thugs and authoritarians and they don't have any interest in the.

[JVL]

They just killed, like 15,000 of their citizens.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, right. And like, the idea that, like, right after we murdered all their friends, they're gonna be like, hey, let's build a Trump Tower together, is preposterous. And we feel like we're like the Exxon CEO that was in that, that White House meeting where Trump's like, you know, hey, hey, oil guy, CEOs, I got a whole new market for you. Aren't you excited to go down there? And it's like the character from Landman, the guy from, like, that Cowboy has on like, sir, you know, I see some pitfalls here about me doing business down with the Venezuelans. What? Our company's been doing business down there for 50 years now, and they're not exactly that reliable. We've lost some money down there before, and I don't. I think we'll go to the Permian Basin instead. But I wish you the best of luck. There's like a little bit of that happening here, but even on like a grander, more evil scale.

[Sarah Longwell]

And gbl, you just raised something. That's a really important point, which is if the goal, like, where we are is to have a negotiation with Iran, we didn't need to bomb them to get a negotiation with Iran already.

[JVL]

Yeah, like, that's what was happening before we declared. What, Sorry, didn't declare war on them before we declared excursion on them.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like, that is the really insane part. And this is where we should talk about Israel. Just. And you guys can have deeper thoughts on this. But to me, what's funny about this, and not in a haha way, is that Trump did the war part on behalf of Israel because Israel wanted him to, and now he's like, oh, man, I thought this was going to be an easy smash and grab job. I do not want to be embroiled in this. So I'm getting out of it and he's going to leave. He's going to end up in the sour spot of he got dragged in by Israel, but now he's going to hang Israel out to dry on the second part of it. Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Here's a factual layout for you, jv. I don't know if you've seen this. This is a report out of Israel. Netanyahu's Likud Party has shelved, for now, a planned television advertising campaign that was highlighting Netanyahu's personal ties with Trump after concluding last week that Trump is not helping him with Israeli public opinion any longer. I mean, I can't think about anything that I find more delicious than that. That is so won. Sorry, Didi. You came to our Situation Room to try to get Donald Trump into war and you thought that you were going to be able to bully him around, that you were going to be the one person that didn't get burned by Donald Trump and you spent our money and we lost our soldiers lives on this war that was not at all in our national interest in any way, was in Israel's national security interest. And now that you got what you wanted, the exact thing that all of us told you was going to happen has happened, which is that he was a totally unreliable partner. And not only will America's national interests be served, but Israel's interest won't be served. And like I just, I'm so this is where, this is the thing I'm the most JVL on because I'm like I was saying this from the first second of the war and there were some good intentioned people on both, you know, even some Democrats. Greg Landsman that I argue with about this. Josh Gotheimer, I had on the pod, we argued with this of our never Trump friends, you know, who care about Israel's security. Like I didn't want October 6th because I care about Israel's security October 7th, excuse me, you know, the people that cared about Israel's security, they were saying like we should do this because it's so important, you know, like because the threat that Iran has caused, which is true, which is real. But I was like, but you're getting into this thing with Trump, you're getting to the boondoggle with Trump. Like you're not going to get what you want out of this. Like it's not going to be good. Like in the end it might be short term good for Israel's security, but medium term it's going to be a disaster. You're alienating the Democratic Party who'll be back in charge at one point. You have a partner in this war that is erratic and non trustworthy and has screwed over every business partner he's ever been with in anything. And you're pushing us into it on pretenses that are not really real. We can all just be honest about what the proposed outcome was going to be in Iran. And so like obviously this is bad, like it's stupid to get into the war, but it's also bad for Israel's interest. And anybody that said that for the first month or two months of the war, it was like, well, this is anti Semitism, you know what I mean? Like anybody who said that criticized people, it's like, oh, you're anti Israel, this is anti Semitic, this is not. And it's like, that's what, like, this is just what happened. Like Israel wanted us to get into the war. It was in their interest, not ours. And, and like many of us said it was stupid for, from our perspective and theirs, and they would lash out at the people that offered that opinion. And now this is like, happened, this has happened. It was exactly as we laid out. And I forget who I was talking to about this, but I was like, I was arguing with someone about this who knows Israel better. And I was like, you might know Israel and Iran and the players there, but I know Trump. It's just like if I got a real estate buddy who came to me and said, hey Tim, I've got this proposal for a deal and like, it really looks good on paper and there's a new building and there's a new investment and like my partner, and it's going to be Trump, I would say, well, you know real estate better than me. So maybe like you're right about that deal. But my guess is that there's something in the fine print there that you don't see or that Trump will break the contract and that in the end you should not do this. And like, because you might know that, but I know Trump and that's like how we ended up here. And now we have all these guys that were pushing this war who are pro Israel hawks, like now today, like you know, crying about it. And it's like, well, we told you so.

[JVL]

We're going to get to that in a minute. We're going to, we're going to go through the, the conversion stories, the people who are having scales fall for their eyes. I would say this about Israel. So, so again, as you said, Israel dog walked the American President into this war because they thought it was in their interests. And honestly, if this had been like a three day operation, it would have worked out okay for them, right? You know, a big decapitation strike, blow up a bunch of shit, get out.

[Tim Miller]

But that wasn't their plan. I mean, they wanted a, they proposed Trump, that they could have a clear.

[JVL]

I mean they proposed stuff to Trump, but I think what they really wanted was Gaza. Like, they wanted to do to Iran what they did to Gaza. And they thought the US Military could do that for them. It is unclear to me if they really believed that they could, like, transition to a more liberal regime or something like that. I think they just wanted to turn Iran into a failed state. And. But once the strait was closed and it was clear that the US Military couldn't open it, then all of, like, everything that's happening now was foretold. Like, this is the ending we are having now was the only possible end to this. And I don't know what the Israeli leadership thought that their end game with Trump would be. Right, because the end of this is Iran gains a lot of power in the region, which is bad for Israel. All the other neighbors, which Israel was moving towards normalizing relationships with, have to get right with Iran now instead. And did they, like, how did they think they were going to get out of this? Did they think that Trump would stay forever with them, that he would, he would be fine absorbing political damage? That Donald, you know what, if Donald Trump had to be at 28% approval in America to be a good ally to Bibi Netanyahu, then by gosh, he would do it. It's just weird, magical thinking. And the only thing I can come up with is that like everybody else, Trump hoodwinks, they thought, no, no, I'm different.

[Tim Miller]

What happened to us, speaking of us on this point, and maybe another reason, part of the reason why they thought they're different is because the Abraham Accords. And is there anything that has had the shine come off of it faster than the Abraham Accords? Honestly, as recently as two months ago, it was still the thing that even people that dislike Trump would say, well,

[JVL]

he did get, remember that was part of the peace, the peace plan was

[Tim Miller]

going to be, oh, yeah, Saudi. And, and the Abraham records are in tatters now and have, if anything, backfired.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, we are worse off in every way than we were before this happened. And I, I do just want to reiterate something that Tim was saying, which is we took a lot of incoming in the early days because we all said it doesn't matter how big of an Iran hawk we might be. I do not care for Iran one bit and think it is a state sponsor of terrorism and do think it's dangerous to, to the stability of the Middle east and to America. On the other hand, I always said, and we always said, you don't do this with Trump. I wouldn't trust Trump at any point to do any of this. And that was always the right call. And what's amazing right now, watching the people who were so mad at us because they're like, aren't you guys supposed to be. Aren't you supposed to care about Iran? Don't you think Iran's sold out all

[Tim Miller]

your values by being against this war? You're going in with the anti Semitic left now just like, no. You just had our eyes open to what was.

[Sarah Longwell]

We always saw this. And so when I watch Erik Erickson now publishing substacks to be like, Trump's a clown, I'm like, yeah, and we always knew it. And the fact that you didn't calls into question every brain cell that ever existed. Like, nobody. Why should anybody listen to you if you are like, oh, I've just discovered Trump's a clown. Get out of here with that. Like, we all knew this is where it was going to go. Because Trump is a bad person and he's not a good president. He doesn't know what he was doing. He did get bullied into it by Bibi without having any real plan for himself. They didn't manage this well. And now they're what? He's walking away because it got hard and, yeah, he wasn't going to do more.

[Tim Miller]

Also, can I throw on top of that? Because I just want to add one other thing. The plan was fucking stupid. And obviously stupid. Like, even if it wasn't Trump, really, like, even if it was Mike Pence who was in charge, I mean, Trump being in charge is the island. There's enough reason to not get involved with it at all. But this idea that, like, we were going to do, and this is where

[JVL]

Kagan was, there was never a plan.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. We were to do some bombing camp. Like, the plan was basically step one, bomb Iran. Step two, question mark, question mark, question mark, Step. Step three, the Iranian people are free. Yeah. And it's like, what? Like, what was what. It was obviously not going to work.

[JVL]

You just did this in Iraq, and Iraq wound up reasonably free, and it took 20 years.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Lots of people and nobody. And there was no appetite for that. So anyway, the whole thing was moronic from the start.

[JVL]

All right, so let's go.