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Hey, everybody, it's Will Saletan from the Bulwark. So usually on Sunday, I tell you what's going on on the Sunday shows, but Donald Trump had other plans, or should I say he had a lack of plans, because what is happening today is that the mess in Iran is getting even messier. I'm going to just tell you a little bit about what's been going on this weekend and how it's fallen apart, and then explain to you why. Why that's happening and why Trump is totally unprepared for it. Okay, so first of all, there's been a lot of skirmishing, some firing of drones and missiles back and forth. I'm going to read to you first what a story in the New York Times today. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that it had targeted a US Naval base in Bahrain and the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait with drones and missiles in retaliation for American attacks. Okay. U.S. officials still reading from the story. U.S. officials blamed Iran for the resumption of hostilities, saying it had launched drone attacks on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Okay, so you've got us and the Iranians shooting back and forth like we're not supposed to be, because we were in a ceasefire and we signed this deal, except the shooting is still going on. It's shooting against our allies in the Persian Gulf and it's shooting against oil tankers, which, remember, the whole point was to open up the Strait of Hormuz and get the oil out. Okay. So that's gone wrong. Second thing, the foreign minister of Iran is claiming that Iran, only Iran, gets to control the Strait of Hormuz. Here's the story in the Wall Street Journal today. Iran has the exclusive right to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz under the preliminary peace deal signed with President Trump, says the foreign minister, Abbas Araghi on Sunday. He adds that attempts to circumvent Iran's authority risk triggering more strikes. They're going to strike us again and our neighbor and our allies in the next few days. The comments still reading from the story. The comments were among the clearest by a top official that Iran expects sole authority over the strait under the deal aimed at reopening the strategic waterway. They are at odds with American arguments, the ones we heard from Trump and J.D. vance, that the deal doesn't give Iran control and that navigation must be unimpeded in the international waterway in the Strait. Okay, so those are the first two things that have gone wrong. Third thing, this story is from the New York Post today reporting what's in Iran's state media. Quote, iran has no choice but to develop a nuclear bomb. A media outlet linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the latest threat to the peace deal. This is a quote from, from the article by the the Guard Corps. To achieve the peace and calm that Iran needs, it must absolutely reach nuclear deterrence to ensure that the rest of the issues can be resolved through negotiations. So remember, the whole promise of this, of this war was we were going to deprive Iran of a nuclear weapon. And they signed this agreement. Right. And now they're saying, well, we have to develop a nuclear weapon anyway, so where does all this mess leave us? All right, so first of all, let's consult the Memorandum of Understanding, the Iran deal that Trump and J.D. vance signed. Okay, let's start with the nuclear threat. What does the deal that we signed with Iran say about that? Well, paragraph eight of the Iran deal says, the Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. And there are some details that follow from that. But this article that's been published by the Iranian government, or at least part of it, the part that has the weapons, and therefore maybe the part we should be listening to, says they're just going to go ahead and develop nuclear weapons. So they are in violation of the agreement, which means that the war would have to restart if Trump and Vance are serious that they were going to enforce the agreement, which we may find out that they're not. Okay, but the other thing, the part about Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Let me read to you that paragraph from the Memorandum of Understanding. Okay, here's what it says. Remember, we signed this deal. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements, using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. Okay, and it goes on and says the Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz. With, in discussion with other Persian Gulf literal states. Do you see anywhere in there where the United States has control over passage in the straight in the Strait of Hormuz? I don't see it. We have agreed, we signed a piece of paper, the deal that basically lets Iran decide who it's going to talk to, to resolve to control this, the strait. And this thing about, you know, services, maritime services, by the way, that's a setup for Iran to charge tolls, which, as you may have noticed, the agreement only says no tolls for 60 days. And then after that, the Iranians can do whatever they want. So the Iranians are totally within their rights under this deal to claim that they, not us, get to make some of these decisions. And then the question is, why the hell did we sign this paragraph of the deal? Why is it here? Remember Trump and Vance said, oh, we totally blew them away, right? We totally won this war. They're at our mercy. Remember Trump kept talking about how the Iranians are just begging us. They're begging us for a deal.
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They are begging to make a deal, not me.
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And then we sign this, this paragraph that gives them control. This is not the paragraph that you sign if they're begging and we're in control. This is the kind of paragraph you sign if you, the United States are trying to escape from the war with Iran and claim, tell Americans that you're reopening the strait without actually having to do any of the hard work. So how did we get here? How did we, the country that claims to have won the war, end up in a position where we don't actually have logistical control of the strait and we don't even have a document in our agreement with Iran that gives us control of the strait? We can't even point to that. The answer is, Trump has been trying to get out of this the whole time because he wanted to get the price of oil, the price of gas down, Right? And then he's been lying to the American public about what he got in the deal and all this power that he has and that Iran is begging. And so Iran knows that they have him over a barrel. So I want to take you through some of what Trump has been saying this week and show you why they have him over a barrel. Okay. Monday, Trump speaks in the Oval Office and he talks about the Iran situation. And here's one part of what he said.
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We have total control of the strait.
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Total control. He's claiming we have total control. Why is he saying that? Not because it's true, but because he needs Americans to believe this for his ego. Right? And so he set himself up to be disproved by these drones and missile strikes that are flying over the Strait of Hormuz and hitting our allies and hitting us. Okay, then I want to show you something that Trump said in his speech in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. On Tuesday, he goes to Pennsylvania, he gives this big rally type speech, and he says, we're winning on everything. And here's part of what he said in that speech.
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Venezuela has been great and Iran's been great. I mean, you know, if Iran's reasonable, if they're smart, otherwise we have to finish the job, which will take about maybe less than a week, but they're going to be okay. I think they're going to do what they have to do because we want to have it done.
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It's great, he says. Venezuela's great, Iran's great, everything's going great, he says. The Iranians, he says, are gonna do what they have to do because we wanna have it done. Oh, oh. And if they don't, if things go south somehow, Trump says, no problem, he says, we'll finish the job, he says. And he says it'll take less than a week. Right. He was going at them for what, two months, and he ended up with this lousy piece of paper that isn't even a capitulation. And he's going to tell you that in a week he'll be where? What is another week of bombing going to do that the six weeks that we did before that did not accomplish? He has no answer to that. It's an empty threat. Okay? That's what he said in the speech in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, and then on Wednesday,