BREAKING: Thomas Massie Loses Primary Against Trump-Backed Challenger

Summary

Episode Overview

Main Theme:
This emergency episode of The Bulwark podcast, hosted by Sam Stein and JVL, is a rapid response to Thomas Massie's shocking loss in the Kentucky Republican primary to Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallerine. The hosts break down what this result means for the GOP, Trump's dominance, the dynamics of the primary, generational divides within the party, and the alarming rise of manipulative campaign tactics, especially the use of AI in political advertising.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Thomas Massie’s Loss: A Proxy for Trump’s Power

• Summary:
  Right out of the gate, the hosts agree: Massie’s defeat is less about issues and more a reflection of Trump’s grip on the Republican base.

• Quote:

  "This is Trump's party, as Lindsey Graham said." – JVL [00:34]

• Factors:

  • Massie’s “big sins” were his efforts to release Epstein files and his opposition to the Iran war. Ironically, these are stances many Trump supporters once shared, revealing Trump's shifting positions and the loyalty of his followers.
  • Trump’s endorsement was the deciding factor; Ed Gallerine, with no significant political experience, was a "non-entity" whose win was purely a result of following Trump’s directive.

• Quote:

  “This is a pure proxy for Trump. Tells you to do a thing for him and the voters just clap like seals and did what Trump demanded.” – JVL [02:51]

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2. Campaign Spending & The Most Expensive House Primary

• Summary:
  The Kentucky race became the most expensive House primary in U.S. history, with staggering sums spent both for and against each candidate.
• Breakdown:
  • $10.9M spent supporting Gallerine.
  • $7.6M supporting Massie.
  • $7.9M attacking Massie.
  • $6.2M attacking Gallerine.
  • Every TV ad slot was inundated, especially notable due to Kentucky’s low media market costs.
• Memorable Moment:

  “You could not get through a single puzzle on Wheel of Fortune without 15 of these ads.” – JVL [04:45]

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3. AI and Hyper-Sexualized Attack Ads

• Summary:
  The episode highlights the disturbing trend of AI-generated ads and personal attacks, including a bizarre “throuple” accusation and anti-LGBTQ+ slurs.

• Attack Ads:

  • Against Massie: AI deepfakes show him in a fictitious D.C. affair; he’s accused of “cheating with the squad on the America First movement.”
  • Against Gallerine: Another ad attacks Gallerine as owned by the "LGBTQ mafia" and “far left trans activists,” mixed with antisemitic undertones.

• Quote:

  "By the end of the campaign, it was so centered around sex. Like it was all about sex. It was wild shit." – Sam Stein [06:08]

• Legal Concerns:
  The hosts discuss whether these AI-fueled "fabrications" should be illegal—comparing them to fraudulent endorsements or fake news headlines.

• Quote:

  “How is that any different from showing AI generated video purporting to be security camera footage of things which never happened?” – JVL [07:33] “There used to be a little bit of anxiety and skepticism around doing this type of thing… now they've just ripped off the band aid.” – Sam Stein [08:05]

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4. Generational and Ideological Splits Within GOP

• Summary:
  There's evidence of a generational divide: younger Republicans favoring Massie, older ones supporting Gallerine. The hosts debate whether this hints at anti-Trump attitudes, shifting views on Israel, or rising antisemitism among younger conservatives.
• Bill Kristol’s Take:
  Suggests younger GOP voters backing Massie signals dissatisfaction with Trump.
• JVL’s Counterpoint:
  Argues it’s more about anti-APAC/anti-Israel sentiment than anti-Trumpism.
• Quote:

  “I think the future of the Republican Party is coming at the America First movement and the Trump people basically from like the anti APAC… that’s where all the energy is.” – JVL [12:26]

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5. Lack of GOP Retaliation Against Trump

• Summary:
  The hosts express disbelief at the Republican establishment’s unwillingness to push back against Trump—even after he ends their careers.
• Metaphor:
  JVL compares the GOP to a gang where deposed members refuse to fight back. Even with nothing to lose, retiring senators like Bill Cassidy or John Cornyn avoid taking a stand.
• Quote:

  “Nobody is spiteful and says, well, I'm going over to the Sharks and we're gonna kick your ass. Right? They just lie there and say, guys, we take you back.” – JVL [16:13] "Where's the House of Cards mentality?" – JVL [18:34]

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6. Incumbents' Post-Defeat Liberation

• Summary:
  Noting Senator Bill Cassidy’s recent actions since losing his seat (i.e., taking stands on votes he previously avoided), the hosts speculate about what defeated Republicans could do if they banded together with their newfound political freedom.

• Quote:

  "There's clear evidence already that he's kind of done with it. And for seven months, he doesn't really give a shit." – Sam Stein [14:48]

• Hypothetical:
  Four or more spurned Republican senators could theoretically withhold Senate control or block judicial confirmations, but they don’t.

• Quote:

  “If they really wanted to band together, could, in theory, just… use it as a leverage point.” – Sam Stein [16:47]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On party dynamics:

  “The transgression is that Trump has changed on all those fronts and Tom Massie hasn't.” – Sam Stein [02:09]

• On anti-Semitism & generational politics:

  “I think what it is, is, is that the position of Israel in the mind of the American public, especially over the last few months, has shifted so radically…” – JVL [11:36]

• On the future of political advertising:

  “This is our future, basically… it's literally all AI generated ads, like fake moms at a yoga studio talking about Spencer and Pratt.” – Sam Stein [08:06]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:14: Thomas Massie’s defeat confirmed – “He gone.”
• 01:30: The irony of the Epstein files and Trump’s shifting positions.
• 02:09: Massie’s alignment with old Trump vs. new Trump.
• 02:51: Ed Gallerine as a Trump proxy—no real credentials, just the endorsement.
• 03:30: The unprecedented scale of the House primary ad war.
• 06:08: The role of AI and sexual innuendo in political attack ads.
• 07:33: Questioning the legality and future of deceptive political advertising.
• 10:06: Explicit anti-LGBTQ and antisemitic themes in campaign ads.
• 11:36: Generational, ideological rifts and the future of the GOP.
• 14:48: Bill Cassidy’s liberation as a lame duck senator.
• 16:13: The GOP's fear of retribution, inertia, and metaphor as a gang.
• 18:34: “Where’s the house of cards mentality?” – expecting more fight from politicians on their way out.

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Conclusion & Takeaways

• The episode dissects the Kentucky GOP primary as a microcosm for Trump’s total command of the party, the hollowing out of traditional conservatism, and the adoption of unethical campaign tactics.
• The discussion anticipates continued escalation of manipulative political advertising, especially AI-deepfake-driven content.
• The generational fractures inside the GOP, while significant, are currently overwhelmed by fealty to Trump.
• Despite losing careers to Trumpian politics, Republican incumbents show scant appetite for revenge or defection, choosing instead to maintain party loyalty.
• Final Question: What should be “good enough” for previously pro-Trump Republicans seeking redemption or reconciliation with the pro-democracy coalition?

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For more analysis and continuing coverage, visit thebulwark.com.

Transcript

[A]

Hey, everyone, it's me, Sam Stein, manager at the Bulwark. I'm here with jvl and we are breaking in live coverage for this news. Tom Massey, the conservative Kentucky candidate, has he gone?

[B]

He gone.

[A]

Reportedly not. Apparently reportedly has lost his primary against Ed G. His challenger is Trump back. Challenger. NBC made the call. Decision desk has made the call. It's, it's, it's done. It's done. And I mean, there's a bunch of takeaways here, but JV, what's your top line? 1.

[B]

So the, I mean, there's a lot of. This is Trump's party, as Lindsey Graham said. But the most interesting thing here is that. So Cassidy, Cassidy voted to impeach Donald Trump, which was an attack on Donald Trump. And so his voters, you know, Republican voters could see that as well. Well, he, he went after Trump.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Massey's big sin was that he was in favor of releasing the Epstein files and that he's against the war in Iran. Now, these are two things which Trump supporters ostensibly are on Massey's side of and not Trump's side. Right. If you, if you just wind the clock back and ask Epstein files, all these Republicans are, you know, in, in his Kentucky 4 would be like, oh, gotta release the Epstein files. He said, how do you think we should be holding hands with Israel and attacking Iran? They was that. What are you talking about? No way. Right.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And so there's this transubstantiation here where the same people who insist Donald Trump had nothing to do with Epstein are now punishing Thomas Massie because they see his call for the releases of the Epstein files as the attack on Donald Trump.

[A]

It's such a solid.

[B]

That, to me is the different.

[A]

Yeah, I hadn't even thought about it in those dimensions. But now that you're talking about it, like, transport yourself back two years, you're a congressional candidate on the Republican side and you're running on a platform that is release the Epstein files. No foreign interventions, deficits out of control, and we need to doge the hell out of government. That's Tom Massey. That's Tom Massey.

[B]

There it is.

[A]

And that's Donald Trump. The transgression is that Trump has changed on all those fronts and Tom Massie hasn't. So.

[B]

And the voters did what Trump wanted. Right. I mean, that's the other. And the other thing that, I mean, it is important to see, like, I don't know how close this is going to be. We don't know what the, the final. We know that it's Enough that they were able to call it by like 50 of the returns in. Right. But Massey is running against a tomato can. I mean, it really is. Has never won elected office before. He's. He lost like a state senate race. Yeah, he's like 62. He didn't show up at any of the debates. No, I mean, I mean, he is a non entity. So it isn't like there was this top tier challenger that they came in, this wildly charismatic guy and knocked him off. It was. This is a pure proxy for Trump. Tells you to do a thing for him and the voters just clap like seals and did what Trump demanded.

[A]

Just to emphasize that point. Like in the past couple days and weeks, you have Pete Hegseth going campaign for Gallerine. I mean, kind of unheard of for the. I mean, think about it. Actually the Defense Secretary in the middle of a war, like without the.

[B]

I guess the war must be going really great.

[A]

No, sorry, sorry.

[B]

In the middle of an excursion.

[A]

Excursion, yeah. He got, he, he left the Pentagon to go to this Kentucky district and campaign. It's. It's like kind of a remarkable indictment of Pete Exeth, frankly. And, and then you had all the other people, you know, Stephen Miller was weighing in on this. Trump himself put out a tweet on my. We can actually put the tweet up if we have it. He never goes on Twitter. Trump went on Twitter today to just say this because Tom Massey had been touting a 2022 endorsement. This was the most expensive House primary, I believe, in the history of House primaries. I'm just reading some data from Ad Impact, which tracks this stuff. The amount of money spent in supporting Ed Gallerain on ads was $10.9 million. This is a House primary election. The amount of money spent in Kentucky, there's the tv, the TV rates are nothing. The amount of money spent supporting Tom Massey, it's just support, is 7.6 million. The amount of money spent attacking Tom Massey was 7.9 million. And the amount of money spent attacking Gail Ryan was 6.2 million. Again, in Kentucky. People, you have to understand, that's like basically buying liter virtually every ad slot and then some in this district. They must have been inundated with ads.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, you, I'm sure you could not get through a single puzzle on Wheel of fortune without 15 of these ads. Right. Must have been the old gal lines on the wheel again. Yeah, right. Yeah.

[A]

I mean, well, some of the ads were wild too. Right. Like we were talking about this one.

[B]

Yes. I want to talk about this because I. We should roll the ads and I would. I would like to talk about the. God knows if we can get exit polls on something like this. Probably not, but I am interested in. There was some polling showing that. That Massey was doing very, very well with voters under the age of. I forget what it was. Right. It was young voters. I want to say it was like 18 to 40 or something. And that Galran was. Was killing it. Saddam Hussein numbers with voters over 60. Right.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And Bill Kristol wrote about this either today or the day before, suggesting that this. This may show that young Republicans are tiring of Trump and looking to move away. I have a different read on that, but I don't want to share until we've looked at the. The video.

[A]

Which ad do you want to play? So there's the ad, there's the Ed Gallerian attack ad on Massey, and then there's the Massey attack on Galran. Which one do you want to play first?

[B]

Oh, why don't we do the. I mean, if it's okay with you boys. I don't want you to driving. You're driving the show. I would say start with the ad against Massie.

[A]

Okay, so let's play the Gallerian attack ad against Tom Massey, the thruffle, which is about a throuple in D.C. there's a lot I just say before we get to this. By the end of the campaign, it was so centered around sex. Like it was all about sex. It was wild shit. Let's play the ad and then we'll get JBL's take on the other side. Massey caught in a throttle in Washington. He's cheating with the squad on the America first movement. Massey voted with the squad against Trump's tax cuts. Massey voted with the squad against finishing Trump's wall. He voted with them against hiring new border agents. Well, this is worse than adultery.

[B]

How is that legal?

[A]

It shouldn't be. It's all AI and it's insinuating because it's AI. Yeah, right.

[B]

I mean, there aren't there. I'm asking this. Maybe I should know this, but I don't. But in the same way that you can't run an ad saying the New York Times says that you. You can't make up a fake headline with like with the New York Times logo on it says the New York Times says that Thomas Massie is actually a lizard person. Right, Right. Because that's not true. The New York Times has never printed that. You couldn't predict. But what. How is that any different from showing AI generated video purporting to be security camera footage of things which never happened.

[A]

You know, I don't know. I wish I actually knew the answer to that. I mean, if I had to guess, because one is employ. Implying that a secondary entity, in this case the New York Times printed something illegal. So the Times would have a case that you, I don't know, slander them or some sort. Some of that. And this is just pure fiction, I will note, like, this is. This is our future, basically. If you've been following the Spencer Pratt mayoral race, it's literally all AI generated ads, like fake moms at a yoga studio talking about Spencer and Pratt. And this is just people. There used to be a little bit of sort of anxiety and, and, and, you know, skepticism around doing this type of thing. Like, why would you do that? You can't. And now they've just ripped off the band aid. But we're going afield. So your point about.

[B]

Hold on. Before. Before we go afield.

[A]

Oh, you want to do the other one?

[B]

I want to do small. No, small digression, and ask you, should this be illegal? Because our friend Andrew Weissman has a book out this week. Ding, ding, ding. And I mean, his. His big idea is that in the same way that we have all sorts of restrictions on speech around the idea of fraud, right. The guys from Enron were not allowed to just say whatever they want about the company and have it be protected speech. Right? They were. They were committing fraud. And there are plenty of other realms in which you can't say just anything. It's not protected speech to do and should it. Doesn't this feel a little bit like fraud to you?

[A]

It does, but let me paint a.

[B]

Making a video of things which didn't happen.

[A]

Let me. Let me. Let me do the sort of, like the lawyerly thing where I give you the counter example.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Let's say that Ev Gallerine hired a Tomasi lookalike, like someone who literally just resembled the guy, and did an ad featuring him walking around and doing Crazy Around Kentucky and never had some disclaimer, but, like, kind of insinuated that that was Massey. Never said it wasn't. Would that be illegal?

[B]

I mean, I don't.

[A]

I wish we had a lawyer, honestly.

[B]

As long as it has something like, you know, actor portrayal. Right. Or.

[A]

Right, right.

[B]

You know, like in the way that when you're watching a History Channel and they're showing you video, it's not bad for.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

You're like, wait a minute, actually, how did they have cameras Back then, right?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

This is. I mean, it just looks like security camera footage.

[A]

I know, right? There's something very fraudulent about it. And I do wonder. God, we should have had Weissman on this. This. He would. He would know. Like, I don't know. All right, let's get back to the actual meat of it, though.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Beyond the legality of it. So do you want to play let's play the Massy attack ad? Because I want to just go through that. Which was not AI so much as just pure anti Semitism and anti homophobia. Yeah. Anti gay homophobia and anti Semitism. Let's play it. Al Ry is bought and paid for by the LGBTQ mafia. Far left trans activist billionaire Paul Singer is bringing his trans madness to Kentucky. Singer is spending millions to remove Massie. The gay mafia will own Woke Eddie. Now, I want to be clear. I don't know if that was actually a Rainbow star.

[B]

David.

[A]

Right? Yeah, I caught that. I caught him an appet. I was like, that's not subtle, I don't think. I just want to be clear. I'm not totally sure that was that Massey campaign, but it was by a group who was. Campaign. Yeah. Okay. All right, so like, what's your. What do you.

[B]

Paul Singer is a right wing billionaire.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Not a. Not a left wing billionaire. Again, for. For people who are not plugged into this stuff. Paul Singer is not a left winger. He is a right winger who supports Republican candidates and right wing candidates. He is super pro Israel. Like, that's true.

[A]

And he did.

[B]

But everything that is.

[A]

Well, he did also. He was also a big funder of the LGBT of gay rights causes from the Republican perspective. And that obviously was referenced in this. All right, so like, you wanted to set these up because you had some larger point about the issues in the generational divides here, but what was it?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, my. So what Bill said, said, said, hey, you know, if this split is real and if younger Republicans are going with Massey, then maybe this is a sign that, like, hey, they're not sold on Trump and the foreign wars and all. I'm sorry. I think it's actually just anti Semitism. So I think what it is, is, is that the position of Israel in the mind of the American public, especially over the last few months, has shifted so radically that you may get old boomers who are watching Fox News, who are Republican voters who are still cool with Israel and don't care and are gonna, you know, they'll vote with whoever, but younger Republican voters. I think that that is a Huge danger sign. And one of the things that I would be if I was a young Republican on the make who, who is looking at the post Trump future. I think the future of the Republican Party is coming at the America first movement and the Trump people basically from like the anti apac. Right. Because I think that's where all the energy is.

[A]

I don't think you're wrong. Like, you see it when Marjorie Taylor Greene speaks out now at any point, Lauren Boebert to a degree too, obviously Tucker and Candace, but that's like more overtly anti Semitic. And you do see a lot of it when you actually dive into some of the replies to JD Vance whenever he does a public speech, it's like, hey, you sold out, right? Like, and you're, you're not shilling for apac. I'd be very curious. And I don't, I'm not sure if I am totally bought into the idea that this was the main driver for their votes. Although if it's generational, you might be right about that. Ultimately, my Occam's Razor explanation is just like, this is a proxy on Trump and if you like Trump, you're going to vote against Tom Massey. And that's it. I will note the other. There's another election happening tonight in Georgia, a bunch of elections in Georgia. And one of the races that I was watching is the GOP primary for the governor's nomination. And, and people might remember the name Brad Raffensperger, who was the Secretary of state who stood up to Donald Trump in 2002. Or sorry, 20, not looking well. He is like way behind. So to that point, he ran on

[B]

the Republican side, right?

[A]

He did.

[B]

He might have been Jeff Duncan.

[A]

Jeff Duncan. Jeff Duncan did go to the Democrats. He's not doing well either.

[B]

To be not doing well.

[A]

No. All right. So something happened. So you mentioned Cassidy at the top and, and for the folks who forgot this weekend because a ton of news has happened since then, Bill Cassidy lost his primary. He finished third in this jungle primary in Louisiana. So he is a lame duck incumbent. And he came back to the Senate today and he got an applause from his caucus and then he went on and he voted for the, the Iran War Powers Resolution. He had not voted for that this go run. He had voted for like thinking like 2020 or something like that. But he had been against doing it up until today. Now that he is liberated and doesn't have to worry about Donald Trump. He also said he's against the ballroom funding country first. Yeah, exactly. He's against the One Billion Dollar Ballroom funding he announced today. He didn't announce that before he lost. So we got a bit of a live wire. I'm not expecting much, but there's clear evidence already that he's kind of done with it. And for seven months, he doesn't really give a shit. And frankly. We'll see. We'll see.

[B]

Maybe you can explain this to me.

[A]

Sure.

[B]

But I have been continually shocked by the lack of vindictiveness in the Republican caucus over the last ten years.

[A]

Okay, You.

[B]

You have people whose entire careers are ended by Donald Trump, who. Donald Trump just, like, beats the living crap out of them. And at the end they're like, well, I'm still Republican. Still Republican. And I. I just think about, like, if this was a gang, right? If. If this was Sons of Anarchy or west side Story, right? And you're. You're a. You're a Jet, right? You're the best you can get.

[A]

But, yeah, go ahead.

[B]

One day a new guy comes in and takes over the jets, and he looks and he's like, you. You're out. Hate you. You're the worst. And the guys go, and they just curb stomp you and they beat you, right? And you're tossed out of the gang. Nobody is spiteful and says, well, I'm going over to the Sharks and we're gonna kick your ass. Right? They just lie there and say, guys, we take you back.

[A]

You know, that is not even that.

[B]

They won't be taken back. Right.

[A]

Well, let's play it out. Let's play it out because it's an interesting proposition. It's. It actually is a really fascinating proposition. John Cornyn, who lost Trump's endorsement day and will be basically be by Ken Paxton, a total crook, and everyone realizes Ken Paxton is a lunatic crook and should not be in the Senate, but most of them are just gonna go along. But you got John Cornyn, you got Thom Tillis, who also was knocked undone by Donald Trump. You have Bill Cassidy, who lost because of Donald Trump. That's three right there. Okay.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Is there a fourth that has. I mean, Collins is still up. Murkowski's still holding on McConnell. There's McConnell. There's four right there that if they really wanted to band together, could, in theory, just kind of create this pact and basically use it as a leverage point. And it's not an insignificant leverage point either, Right? Like, you need four to get to 51 for Democrats. They're there and they could stick it to Trump. They have nothing to hold on to. They're all basically done in elected office. So what would you do? So let's say you have four.

[B]

What.

[A]

What do you do with that? Four?

[B]

I mean, I would switch control of

[A]

the Senate based caucus.

[B]

That's because I'm a vindictive. Right. I mean, I look at this and I'm like, you know me. No, you. Right. In these. They.

[A]

With conditions. With conditions. They're gonna need conditions. Right. They're gonna. You have to. You can't just do liberal policy. They would need something.

[B]

Well, you can't get any liberal policy through anyway. Right. You know what? We're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna all your up. You think you're gonna confirm a bunch of judges. No. You're not confirming anybody for the next few months. Right? Right. You think you're gonna pass your stupid ballroom? You're not passing anything. We're gonna, we're gonna start holding hearings in the Senate on Iran tomorrow.

[A]

Right?

[B]

Right. This. This your slush fund. We're going to call witnesses tomorrow because we are. There's a new majority in control of the Senate judiciary or whoever. Right. Pick a committee and I just. Yeah, you have subpoena power. Right. And you can start investigating. You could start investing. Call witnesses on Epstein.

[A]

Sure.

[B]

And I just look at this and Sarah's theory is that they just don't want the trouble when they go back home because they're going to be at Kroger or they're going to be at the country club and they don't want their old Republican friends to look and be like, why'd you make so much trouble? Why'd you make trouble? Why'd you gotta rock the boat? I just look at that and I think to myself, you people want to be liked too much. Who cares, right? I mean, the world. I don't know. Like, I just, Where's. Where's the house of cards mentality? Where is the, like, you know, I'm A, I'm a U.S. senator. You know, I, I'm not going to take guff from no one. And instead these guys are all cowards. They're really cowards.

[A]

I wonder if it's the country club that. The country club conversations they're worried about versus like legitimate fear factor of crazy MAGA folks coming at them. I mean, I don't think that's insignificant. Right.

[B]

I don't know. Maybe I never lived in Kentucky. Maybe down in the holler, I, you know, I watch Justified. I never, never lived in the holler, but I did watch Justified maybe Walton Goggins is going to come out I don't know do you have any sympathy for Massey on this stuff? Because here's my question because my question for you is I get torn a lot between the oh yeah, see, we were right all along, right? Your career is torched now too, motherfucker and I get torn between that and well, he did the right thing and he did stand up Trump on the Epstein stuff and welcome to the coalition welcome to the resistance I mean he's not going to join the resistance, you

[A]

know no but I, I don't expect him to join the dishes, I guess My, my life what should be good enough?

[B]

What should be good enough? What is the enough of the half a loaf for us, Sam? Tell me talk me off the ledger

[A]

so I, I was I think I think it's Tim I was talking about this with but my line really comes down to did you go down.